Chapter 5

Probability: review of
basic concepts
 2

Basic terms
Probability Experiment

A value between zero and one, A process that leads to the

inclusive, describing the relative occurrence of one and only one of
possibility (chance or likelihood) several possible observations.
an event will occur. Outcome

A particular result of an experiment

Sample Space

All possible outcomes of an

experiment

Event

A collection of one or more

outcomes of an experiment.
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example

Experiment Count the number of members of the

Roll a die board of directors for Fortune 500
companies who are 60 years of age

All possible outcomes Observe a 1 None are over 60

Observe a 2 One is over 60
Observe a 3 Two are over 60
Observe a 4 …
Observe a 5 29 are over 60
Observe a 6 …
…
48 are over 60
…
Some possible events Observe an even number More than 13 are over 60
Observe a number greater than 4 Fewer than 20 are over 60
Observe a number 3 or less
 4

Approaches to probabilities
Classical Probability
It is based on the assumption that the outcomes of an experiment are equally likely.
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
Example
Experiment: rolling a six-sided die
What is the probability of getting an odd number?
• 𝑆𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒 = 1,2,3,4,5,6
• 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 = 1,3,5
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 3
• 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑑𝑑 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 = = = 0.5
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 6
Approaches to probabilities
5

Empirical Probability/Relative Frequency

It is based on the number of times an event occurs as a proportion of a known
number of trials.
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑠
𝐸𝑚𝑝𝑖𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠

Experiment: rolling a die 200 times

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 7

Practice Exercises
In each of the following cases, indicate whether classical, empirical, or subjective probability is
used.
a. A baseball player gets a hit in 30 out of 100 times at bat. The probability is 0.3 that he gets
a hit in his next year at bat.
b. A seven-member committee of students is formed to study environmental issues. What is
the likelihood that any one of the seven is chosen as the spoke person?
c. You purchase one of 5 million tickets for Lotto Canada. What is the likelihood you will win
the $1 million jackpot?

Answers:
a. Empirical
b. Classical
c. Classical
 8

Practice Exercises
A sample of 2,000 licensed drivers revealed the following number of speeding violations.
Number of Violations Number of Drivers
0 1,910
1 46
2 18
3 12
4 9
5 or more 5
Total 2,000
a. What is the experiment?
b. List one possible event
c. What is the probability that a particular driver had exactly two speeding violations?
d. What concept of probability does this illustrate?
Answers:
a. Number of speeding violations of licensed drivers
b. Licensed driver having 4 violations
c. P(A)=18/2000=0.009
d. Empirical
 Some Rules for Computing Probabilities
Rules of Addition
Mutually Exclusive Events
– Events A and B are mutually exclusive if both cannot occur at the same time, that is, if their
intersection is empty.

Special Rule of Addition Compliment Rule

𝑃 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 𝑃 𝐴 = 1 − 𝑃 ~𝐴
Answer
Example Let P(F)=an event selecting McDonald’s restaurant operated by a franchisee
In 2008, McDonald’s had 31,967 P(A)=an event selecting McDonald’s restaurant operated by an affiliate
restaurants systemwide. Of these, 21,328  𝑃 𝐹 𝑜𝑟 𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐹 + 𝑃 𝐴
were operated by franchisees, 6,502 by the  𝑃 𝐹 𝑜𝑟 𝐴 = 𝑃
21,328
+𝑃
4,137
31,967 31,967
company, and 4,137 by affiliates. What is
 𝑃 𝐹 𝑜𝑟 𝐴 = 0.6672 + 0.1294
the probability that a randomly selected
 𝑷 𝑭 𝒐𝒓 𝑨 = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟗𝟔𝟔
McDonald’s restaurant is operated by
The probability that a randomly selected McDonald’s restaurant is operated
either a franchisee or an affiliate?
by either a franchisee or an affiliate is 0.7966 or 79.66%.
 Some Rules for Computing Probabilities
Rules of Addition
Not Mutually Exclusive Events General Rule of Addition
Two or more events can happen at the same. 𝑃 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵

Joint Probability
The probability that two or more events occur. The
typical expression is P(A and B).

Example Answer
A student is taking two courses, Let P(A)=an event passing the accounting course
accounting and statistics. The probability P(S)=an event passing the statistics course
the student will pass the accounting  𝑃 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝑆 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵
course is 0.60, and the probability of  𝑃 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝑆 = 𝑃 0.60 + 𝑃 0.70 − 𝑃 0.50
passing the statistics course is 0.70. The  𝑷 𝑨 𝒐𝒓 𝑺 = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟎
probability of passing both is 0.50. What The probability of passing either accounting or statistics is 0.80 or 80%.
is the probability of passing either
accounting or statistics?
 11
Practice Exercises

1. There are 100 employees at Kiddie Carts International. Fifty-seven of the employees are production
workers, 40 are supervisors, 2 are secretaries, and the remaining employee is the president. Suppose
an employee is selected:
a. What is the probability the selected employee is a production worker?
b. What is the probability the selected employee is either a production worker or supervisor?
c. What is the probability the selected employee is neither a production worker nor a supervisor?

Answers:
Let A = production worker ; B = supervisors ; C = secretaries ; D = president
a. P(A) = 57/100 = 0.57
b. P(A or B) = P(57/100)+P(40/100) = 0.57+0.40 = 0.97
c. P(A or B)’ = 1-0.97 = 0.03
1. Consider a pack of 52 playing cards. A card is 2. Hospital records indicated that maternity patients
selected at random. Find these probabilities. stayed in the hospital for the number of days shown
a. An ace in the distribution.
b. A four of spade Event No. of Days Frequency
c. A diamond or a ten A 3 15
d. Not a black card nor a diamond card B 4 32
e. A red card or a face card C 5 56
D 6 19
Answers
E 7 5
 26 = red cards ; 26 = black cards ; 13 = cards of
Total 127
diamond ; 13 = cards of spade ; 13 = cards of
Find these probabilities.
heart ; 13 = cards of club/clover
a. A patient stayed exactly 5 days.
a) P(A) = 4/52 = 0.0769 b. A patient stayed at most 4 days.
b) P(Z) = 1/52 = 0.0192 c. A patient stayed less than 6 days.
d. A patient stayed at least 5 days.
c) P(D or T) = P(13/52) + P(4/52) – P(1/52)
Answers
= 0.3077 a. P(A) = 56/127 = 0.4409
b. P(A or B) = P(15/127) + P(32/127) = 0.3701
d) P(B or D)’ = 1 – P(26/52) + P(13/52) = 0.25
c. P(A or B or C) = P(15/127) + P(32/127) +P(56/127)
e) P(R or F) = P(26/52) + P(12/52) – P(6/52) = 0.8110
d. P(C or D or E) = P(56/127) + P(19/127) +P(5/127)
= 0.6154 = 0.6299
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Rules of multiplication
Independent Event Dependent Event
-the occurrence of one event does -the occurrence of one event does
not change the probability that change the probability that another
another event will occur. event will occur
Special Rule of Multiplication General Rule of Multiplication
𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ∙ 𝑃 𝐵 𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ∙ 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴
Example Conditional Probability
A survey by the American Automobile Association The probability of a particular event
(AAA) revealed 60 percent of its members made occurring, given that another event has
airline reservations last year. Two members are
Example occurred.
selected at random. What is the probability both
made airline reservations last year? A gumball machine is filled with 50 black, 150 white, 100 red,
Answer and 100 yellow gumballs that have been thoroughly mixed.
Sue and Jim each purchased one gumball. What is the
P(A) = probability of first member who made an likelihood both Sue and Jim get red gumballs?
airline reservation
P(B) = probability of second member who made an Answer
airline reservation
P(R) = probability of getting red gumball
P(A and B) = (0.60)(.60) = 0.36 P(R and R) = (100/400)(99/399) = 0.0620
The probability both made airline reservations last year The likelihood both Sue and Jim get. red gumballs is 0.0620
is 0.36.
 Practice exercises 14
1. A board of directors consists of eight men and four women. 3. A Harris poll found that 46% of Americans say they suffer
A four-member search committee is randomly chosen to great stress at least once a week. If three people are selected
recommend a new company president. What is the probability at random, find the probability that all three will say that they
that all four members of the search committee will be women? suffer great stress at least once a week.
Answer Answer
P(All Four Women) = (4/12)(3/11)(2/10)(1/9) P(A and A and A) = (0.46)(0.46)(0.46)
= 0.002. =0.097
The probability that all four members of the The probability that all three will say that they
search committee will be women is 0.002. suffer great stress at least once a week is
0.097.
2. In a management trainee program, 80% of the trainees are
female, 20% male. A total of 90% of the females attended
college, while 78% of the males attended college. A management 4. A standard deck of card is drawn, what is the probability that
trainee is selected at random. What is the probability that the the cards drawn were queen and diamond with replacement?
person selected is a female who did NOT attend college?
Answer
Answer
 First, the conditional probability that a person attended college
P(Q and D) = (4/52)(13/52)
given the person is female is P(college | female) = 0.9.
= 0.019.
 The complement is P(no college | female) = 0.1.
The probability that the cards drawn were
 P(female and no college) = P(female)P(no college | female) =
queen and diamond
(0.8)(0.1) = 0.08.
The probability that the person selected is a female who did NOT
attend college is 0.08.
 15

Contingency Table
A table used to classify sample observations according to two or more
identifiable characteristics.
The following table represents gas well completions during 1986 in North and South America.

D D’
Dry Not Dry Totals
N North America 14,131 31,575 45,706
N’ South America 404 2,563 2,967
Totals 14,535 34,138 48,673

Answers:
a. P(N) = 45,706/48,673

a. What is P(N)? b. What is 𝑃 𝐷′ 𝑁′ = 2,563/2,967obability

34,138 31,575 31,575
c. P(D’ and N) = P 𝐷′ ∙ 𝑁 𝐷′ =
b. What is 𝑃 𝐷′ 𝑁′ ?oprobability - 1. Simple probability: 45,706/48,673 ∙ 34,138 = 48,673
48,673

c. What is P(D’ and N)?bability: 31,575/48,673 34,138 45,706 31,575 48269

d. P(D’ or N) = 48,673 + 48,673 − 48,673 = 48673
d. What is P(D’ or N)?
 16

Principles of counting
Multiplication Formula Permutation Formula
If there are m ways of doing one thing and n ways of It is applied to find the possible number of arrangements
doing another thing, there are 𝑚 × 𝑛 ways of doing both. when there is only one group of objects.
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑚𝑛𝑒𝑡𝑠 = 𝑚 𝑛 Permutation
Any arrangement of r objects selected from a single
Example group of n possible objects.
An electronics firm sells four models of stereo
receivers, three amplifiers, and six speaker 𝑛!
𝑛𝑃𝑟 =
brands. When the three types of components 𝑛−𝑟 !
are sold together, they form a "system." How Where
many different systems can the electronics firm n is the total number of objects
offer? r is the number of objects selected
Example
Answer A sales representative has 35 customers
Let n = number of different systems can the electronics throughout the state and is planning a trip
firm offer during which 20 will be visited. In how many
𝑛 = 4 3 6 = 72 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 orders can the visits be made?
Answer
n = 35 ; r = 20
35!
35𝑃20 = = 𝟕. 𝟗𝟎𝟏𝟗 ≈ 𝟖 𝒐𝒓𝒅𝒆𝒓𝒔
35 − 20 !
 17

Principles of counting
Combination Formula
If the order of the selected objects is not important, any selection is called a combination.
𝑛!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 =
𝑟! 𝑛 − 𝑟 !
Example
The ABCD football association is considering a Super Ten Football Conference. The top 10
football teams in the country, based on past records, would be members of the Super Ten
Conference. Each team would play every other team in the conference during the season and
the team winning the most games would be declared the national champion. How many games
would the conference commissioner have to schedule each year? (Remember, Oklahoma versus
Michigan is the same as Michigan versus Oklahoma.)

Answer
n = 10 ; r = 2
10!
10𝐶2 = = 𝟒𝟓 𝒈𝒂𝒎𝒆𝒔
2! 10 − 2 !
.
1. How many permutations of the three letters C, 18
D, and E are possible? 4. A computer password consists of four
characters. The characters can be one of the
Answer
n=3;r=3 26 letters of the alphabet. Each character may
3! be used more than once. How many different
3𝑃3 = = 𝟔 𝒂𝒓𝒓𝒂𝒏𝒈𝒆𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔 passwords are possible?
3−3 !
2. A national pollster has developed 15 questions
designed to rate the performance of the President 𝑛 = 26 26 26 26 = 𝟒𝟓𝟔, 𝟗𝟕𝟔 𝒑𝒂𝒔𝒔𝒘𝒐𝒓𝒅𝒔
of the United States. The pollster will select 10 of
these questions. How many different arrangements 5. The chairperson of the accounting
are there for the order of the 10 selected
department has three summer courses
questions?
Answer available: Accounting 201, Accounting 202,
n = 15 ; r = 10 and Accounting 305. twelve faculty members
15! are available for assignment to these courses,
15𝑃10 =
15 − 10 ! and no faculty member can be assigned to
= 𝟏𝟎, 𝟖𝟗𝟕, 𝟐𝟖𝟔, 𝟒𝟎𝟎 𝒂𝒓𝒓𝒂𝒏𝒈𝒆𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔 more than one course. In how many ways can
the chairperson assign faculty to these
3. A pollster randomly selected 4 of 10 available
course?
people. How many different groups of 4 are
possible?
𝑛 = 12 11 10 = 𝟏, 𝟑𝟐𝟎 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔
Answer
n = 10 ; r = 4
10!
10𝐶4 = = 𝟐𝟏𝟎 𝒂𝒓𝒓𝒂𝒏𝒈𝒆𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔
4! 10 − 4 !
 19

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