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Production Management Forecasting Assignment

This document provides instructions and questions for a homework assignment on production management. Students are asked to answer questions from chapters 12.2, 12.3, 12.5, 12.7 or 12.16, 12.23, 12.19, 12.27 of their operations management textbook. They are directed to submit their work using a specific file naming convention and deadline. The questions involve forecasting student enrollment in operations management using a three-semester moving average and exponentially smoothed method, and comparing the accuracy of the two forecasts using MAD.

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sume shquidec
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74 views5 pages

Production Management Forecasting Assignment

This document provides instructions and questions for a homework assignment on production management. Students are asked to answer questions from chapters 12.2, 12.3, 12.5, 12.7 or 12.16, 12.23, 12.19, 12.27 of their operations management textbook. They are directed to submit their work using a specific file naming convention and deadline. The questions involve forecasting student enrollment in operations management using a three-semester moving average and exponentially smoothed method, and comparing the accuracy of the two forecasts using MAD.

Uploaded by

sume shquidec
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Production Management

Homework/Assignment 1
Full Name of submitter: Student ID:

Your Group number is: ……..


Title of your Group project is: ……..

Contents of questions
---

● Operation Management 7th edition:


● 12.2, 12.3, 12.5, 12.7.
Or:
● Operation Management 6th edition:
● 12.16, 12.23, 12.19, 12.27.

Note:

- Continue using this form to complete your works and submit on Blackboard
- Name your file
o If you submit individually: Promana_HW1_StudentID_FullName
o If you submit for a group (Group # are as per the number you have registered as
guided in the file “Semester Project Requirement” and be finalized by lecturer):
2122Promana_HW1_G#
- Due Date is defined in detail at each “ ASSIGNMENT INFORMATION” from Blackboard
- Maximum score of late submission is two third of “Point Possible”
- If you can’t submit on Blackboard: Email your work to TA, copy it to your Lecturer, attached
also the screenshot of your Blackboard showing error in that transaction

---------

Answers/Works

Page 1
Production Management

12.5 The chairperson of the department of management at Tech wants to


forecast the number of students who will enroll in operations management next
semester in order to determine how many sections to schedule. The chair has
accumulated the following enrollment data for the past eight semesters:

a) Compute a three-semester moving average forecast for semesters 4 through 9


3
Di
. MA = ∑
i=1
3
3

Page 2
Production Management

b) Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast ( α =0.20) for the enrollment


data.

F 2=α D1 +(1 − α )F 1

c) Compare the two forecasts using MAD and indicate the most accurate.
● Using MAD on three-semester moving average forecast

Page 3
Production Management

MA D 1=
∑ |Dt − Df |= 306.67 =¿61,33
n 5

● Using MAD on exponentially smoothed forecast

MA D 2=
∑ |Dt − D f|= 424.92 =¿70.42
n 7

MA D1=61.33
{
 After using MAD on both forecasting methods we have MAD =70.42
2

  MAD1 < MAD2 The three-semester moving average forecasting


method is more accurate than the exponentially smoothed forecast

Page 4
Production Management

Page 5

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