3- Artificial Rain Project : Bundelkhand
-I.I.T.,Kanpur
Introduction
1. Bundelkhand is a geographical and cultural region and also a mountain range in central
& North India. The hilly region is now divided between the states of Uttar Pradesh and
Madhya Pradesh, with the larger portion lying in the latter state.
2. Since 2007 Bundelkhand region has been facing severe drought problems. Normal rainy
days in Bundelkhand is 52 days (metrological department of India) but last six years its
restricted 24 days. Timing of Monsoon usually in this area is second week of June but, Year
2008 this season saw rains, but in the second week of June alone the region received
around 32 percent of its total rainfall. Farmers were not prepared for sowing. Then till July
2008, most of the Bundelkhand region received around 55 percent of its total average
rainfall. This change caused floods and widespread losses in livestock and top soil. In
Bundelkhand region, average level of rainfall is 800–900 mm. (Ramesh et al. 2002), But,
during the last six years Bundelkhand received only 400–450 mm annual rainfall.
Agriculture production also decreased in this areas. In 2000, this region used to contribute
15 percent of the state’s total food grain production, which has now come down to 7
percent. A once food secure zone has now become a symbol of insecurity and migration
due to climate change. In this area various livelihoods such as fishing, vegetable production
and traditional betel leaf farming are facing one of the worst crises ever.
3. To alleviate the problem of water scarcity, artificial rain project has been proposed for
this region.
Geography
4. Bundelkhand lies between the Indo-Gangetic Plain to the north and the Vindhya Range
to the south. It is a gently sloping upland, distinguished by barren hilly terrain with sparse
vegetation, although it was historically forested. The plains of Bundelkhand are intersected
by three mountain ranges, the Vindhya, Fauna and Bander chains, the highest elevation not
exceeding 600 meters above sea-level. Beyond these ranges the country is further
diversified by isolated hills rising abruptly from a common level, and presenting from their
steep and nearly inaccessible scarps eligible sites for forts and strongholds of local kings.
The general slope of the country is towards the northeast, as indicated by the course of the
rivers which traverse or bound the territory, and finally discharge themselves into the
Yamuna River.
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5. A satellite image clearly shows the reasons why Bundelkhand faces water deficit
compared to the terai region lying just north of it and why the problem becomes acute
when rainfall is deficit.
a. The terai region gets the advantage of orographic lifting due to Himalayas. When
south east monsoon brings moisture from the Bay of Bengal, the Himalayan
foothills cause the airmass to rise and give copious rainfall–maximum at the
foothills and progressively reducing southwards.
b. Even in summers, the northern areas of UP get the advantage of snow melting over
the Himalayan mountains which keep the rivers this area (like Ganga and Yamuna)
perennial. The rivers of Bundelkhand actually flow into Yamuna, thereby getting
no advantage of these rivers.
c. Bundelkhand is a hilly region, while the perennial rivers flow north of it through
the Gangetic plains.
6. Another factor that aggravates the problem is that Bundelkhand is rocky and hilly
region. Even when there is heavy rainfall, water tends to flow out rapidly without getting
easily absorbed by the surface. The traditional solution was to build “talaab” (natural
lakes) and “bawadis” (man-made structures below ground level to store water).
7. As a result, whenever the rain is deficit Bundelkhand faces drought. Not only that, even
when rainfall happens in short intense bursts, there is a runaway effect due to rocky soil
and hilly terrain. Though dams have been built on rivers like Ken and Betwa, which flow
through this region, these dams can only accumulate rainfall in the higher riperian regions
of rivers. The net amount of water is still as per the rainfall. It is not supplemented by the
water flowing because of snow melting over Himalayas as it happens in the northern areas
of Uttar Pradesh.
8. There are several ways the problem can be alleviated (to whatever extent possible):-
a. An arrangement on the lines of Bhakra Nagal dam supplying water to Rajasthan
through Indira Gandhi canal. Or a pipeline arrangement like Ganga water supply
into NCR region.
b. Rejuvenation of local water bodies which have been encroached upon.
c. Innovative arrangements like check dams, rainwater harvesting and water
retention pits to ensure maximum absorption of water in the subsoil.
d. Artificial Rain to enhance the amount of rainfall.
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9. While the first three methods are long term solutions, artificial rainfall is the only
solution for immediate relief, which is what Bundelkhand needs. While other solutions can
work in parallel for long term, artificial rainfall is the one which can give immediate
results. More importantly, artificial can actually increase the net precipitation, thereby
alleviating the crisis. For best results, of course, the other options should also be explored
in parallel.
Rainfall Pattern : Frequency Distribution
10.The frequency distribution of different districts is as follows:-
11. It can be seen from above that trace rainfall days are aplenty while intense rainfall days
are rare. This is explained by the fact that rocky soil heats up during the day (temperature
reach close to 50 deg in summers). Even when moist air is passing over the region, the
temperatures are too high for temperature to drop to dew point at the applicable levels.
Cloud formation at night is more conducive for rainfall, since temperature drops faster
after sunset in rocky areas compared to greener areas. Heavy rainfall occurs under strong
south east monsoon which creates overcast conditions; or convergence of moisture feeds
from Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea (which happens rarely over this region).
12.The prevalence of scant rainfall days is an indicator of moisture being present in the
atmosphere, but conditions being suboptimal for precipitation. Artificial rains will be very
effective when there is moisture in the atmosphere, but the ambient conditions are
suboptimal for rainfall. Seeding will lead to larger droplets being formed, leading to
precipitation compared to small droplets otherwise, which may remain suspended as the
airmass traverses the region.
Cloud Seeding Process
13.Many studies report that if cloud seeding is done properly and timely; it can assist the
natural precipitation process of clouds by providing enough "seeds" to create sufficient
number of large raindrops. By the phrase properly and timely, we imply the usage of
clouds having super cooled water droplets. Such super cooled droplets do attach to an ice
crystal (either natural or artificial); resulting in a tiny snowflake that quickly grows into a
raindrop before the cloud collapses. There are many cloud seeding agents available and
used by various countries, but the two most favoured cloud seeding agents that we used
are Silver Iodide (AgI), Common Salt (NaCl), and Iodized salt. These were preferred over
others due to their abundant presence in nature, non-polluting characteristics and non-
poisonous to human and other living beings. Other options like Silver Bromide (AgBr),
powdered dry ice, etc. are also prevalent in usage at different places. Silver iodide is said to
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have crystalline structure very similar to the natural ice crystal and hence is widely
favoured. However, clouds during drought periods never have enough super cooled water
and usage of silver iodide is considered as counterproductive. In such cases, hygroscopic
substances like common salt have demonstrated better results.
14. Dispersion of cloud seeding particles can happens in two different ways, viz., (i)
seeding from above the cloud (typically around altitudes of 5500 meters), and (ii) seeding
from below the cloud (typically around altitudes of 2000 meters). When the cloud seeding
particles (nuclei) are released at the cloud base, the aim is to use the strong updraft of the
cloud to pull these “seeds” into the core of the cloud where super cooled cloud droplets are
present. There are debates on whether cloud seeding can be effective or not but several
studies have shown that 10-20% enhancement is possible with appropriate seeding agents
and platforms. Such enhancements are quite significant for successful results in many
cases. It is hypothesized that when cloud seeding agents are dispersed with high
temperature air (except dry ice that is used for creating thermal shock), then it allows for
better dispersion and quick drying of particles, thereby resulting in better spread and
suction into the cloud. Because of the absence of cabin pressurization system in our
aircrafts, we were restricted to altitudes up to 10,000 feet. This forced us to follow the
seeding from below approach and thereby depending up on the updraft to suck the cloud
seeding agent into the cloud. A schematic of both approaches (courtesy: Wichita Falls
document on cloud seeding) is depicted below.
Cloud Seeding Experiments by IIT Kanpur
15. The primary effort of this project was to develop a cost effective cloud seeding
strategy; by working on both seeding agents and flying platforms.
a. Both manned aircrafts (primarily Sinus Motorized Glider and Cessna Station Air)
and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) developed at IIT Kanpur for conducting the
seeding flights were utilized.
b. Special apparatus were developed for proper dispersal of the seeding mixture.
c. Majority of the experiments focused on dispersing a specific mixture of common
salt, iodized salt along with micro silver iodide particles into the atmosphere by
utilizing the exhaust gas temperature of the aircraft. A mixture was used instead of
only silver iodide or common salt (pure strategies) because the pilot studies
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focused only on achieving precipitation (rain and/or hail), not a specific
precipitation type.
d. Typical process utilizes flares (ejectable flares also) to disperse the cloud seeding
particles (mostly for silver iodide); whereas, the aircraft exhaust gases at 1100F
were used to realize better dispersion.
e. The dispersion device developed for this purpose ensured the dropping of the
seeding mixture right near the exhaust ports of the aircraft engine.
f. Since extremely hot exhaust of the aircraft engine were being used and our aircraft
lacked cabin pressurization systems and hygroscopic radar, most of the seeding
flights were conducted below the cloud.
g. The seeding altitudes varied between 1500m to 3000m Above Ground Level
(AGL). The images of both manned platforms are shown in Figure 2 with Sinus
Glider followed by Cessna aircraft.
16. Similarly, the UAV is another versatile platform that can conduct such dull and dirty
missions with minimal human risk. For this purpose, the UAV developed at IITK having a
payload capability of around 7 kilograms were used. The images of these UAV platforms
are shown in Figure 3. However, these UAVs are limited to altitudes of up to 5000 feet AGL
due to its flight characteristics. With adequate modifications, they can be used as viable
platforms for conducting such missions. Preliminary research work was conducted in this
regard and the feasibility was established, but did not proceed in that direction due to fund
limitations.
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17.These cloud seeding experiments were conducted during the time period from May
2017 to 30 June 2017. During this time period, upward convection of hot air is said to be
quite common. Weather forecasts from multiple sources were used as guidelines to choose
days for seeding. A typical forecast that was used for deciding the dates is shown in Figure
4, which is a screen shot of a dependable weather forecasting website.
18. It should be noted that the cloud seeding experiments were conducted without specific
details of moisture content in the clouds. Data available from literature were used to obtain
educated estimates of quantities of cloud seeding mixture required. The dispersion rate
was determined by the scientist and pilot together depending up on the up-draft available
(low, medium, and severe) as per response of the aircraft at that altitude. Through this
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method, we were able to demonstrate successful precipitation in six out of seven attempts.
However, limited control was possible on the type of resulting precipitation.
19. Varying quantities of mixture (few hundred micro sized silver iodide particles
combined with finely powdered common salt particles) were used as we lacked major
instrumentations like ceilometer, weather radar, hygrometer, etc. However, multiple
sources of weather data provided us enough guidelines to estimate the necessary
quantities and experienced pilot inputs were taken to decide proper time of seeding. As
mentioned earlier, six successful experiments were conducted and in most of these
experiments, precipitation especially in the form of hail mixed with rain occurred. In one
specific trial, the resulting hail was severe due to its intensity and size. The mixture
contained finely powdered common salt and micro sized silver iodide particles.
20. Studies conducted by Wichita Falls (USA) and Alberta (Canada) suggest that seeded
storms often rain over larger areas than unseeded storms. Similar phenomena were
observed where the seeding was conducted around Kanpur area (from Ganga Barrage to
Mandhana to Chakeri to Central) and precipitation was found reaching till Unnao area. This
means that by seeding developing clouds before they start to produce precipitation; the
precipitation process is accelerated and rain falls sooner even from smaller clouds than it
would naturally. Also, the Alberta study conducted measurements from the high-resolution
snow gauges on the ground indicated that seeding elevated snowfall by 5–15%. While
western countries utilize cloud seeding to mitigate the effects of hail so that crop damage
can be minimized; eastern countries like China utilize cloud seeding to mitigate air
pollution. The idea behind the air pollution mitigation is that when precipitation occurs, it
washes away many of the atmospheric pollutants along with rain; thus cleaning the air.
Also, rapid precipitation in a localized area do result in a temperature gradient and thus
could facilitate air movements that could further clear the atmosphere by redistributing
the pollutants over a larger area. Our experiments were focused towards mitigating air
pollution by causing larger precipitation and maybe in certain cases resulting in air
movements.
21. While initial experiments conducted by us have resulted in reasonable success, the
type of precipitation and quantities were not within our control. For more precise cloud
seeding, it is better to seed higher clouds. For this, Beechcraft like aircraft is necessary,
which is not available with IITK. However, we have certified engineers who are capable of
working on such aircraft to integrate dispersal mechanism to seed high clouds. Second,
DGCA regulations require the utilization of portable weather radar for accurate weather
measurements, which is also not available at IITK. Such a device is critical for precise cloud
seeding as it helps in estimating the quantities of chemicals and as well as amount of
precipitation possible from the cloud.
22.The conclusion was that cloud seeding works, though promising needs more precision,
control, and desirable outcomes for combating adverse weather conditions.
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Cloud Seeding over Andhra Pradesh
23.Andhra Pradesh is also a rain deficit area, similar to Bundelkhand. The topography and
prevalence of high temperature during summers are other similarities. Large scale
experiments on cloud seeding were done during 2004-2009 for which data is available:-
24. It can be seen that
a. Around 12-19% could be attributed to cloud seeding operations – the effect would
be significant.
b. The effective cost of cloud seeding works out to 3 paise / m3 or Rs. 300 per ha.-m.
This cost would be a very small fraction of the improvement in agricultural
productivity and overall economy of the region.
Project Varshadhare – Cloud Seeding over Karnataka
25. In an another experiment done over Karnataka, a simple estimate of cost/m3 of rain
water has been done here using increase in rainfall at Taluk level.
a. No. of Taluks = 227 in Karnataka.
b. Area of the state = 191507 km2
c. Mean area of each Taluk = 843 km2
d. No. of Taluks seeded= 781.
26. Each Taluk has been seeded more than once. Hence, mean increase in rainfall at Taluk
area basis is 1.2 mm (From experiment). Hence, additional water generated due to seeding
was 843 × 1.2 × 781 km2mm. It is equal to 2.1 TMC (Thousand Million Cubic feet). The cost
of the project was 35 Crore. So, it cost 5.89 rupees/m3 or 0.589 Crore/Ha m of rain water.
Resources : Outsource or Inhouse
27. The primary resource required for cloud seeding is aircraft. These can be acquired
permanently or leased out periodically. Broadly, leasing suits better when the requirement
is short term and small quantity. For extensive requirement over a prolonged period, own
assets work out cheaper. However, this will be analysed in depth based on facts and figures
before deciding the course of action.
Aircraft
28. Market survey has been carried out for this purpose and King Air C90GTx from
Beechcraft USA has been found to be suitable. This will be used only as a reference for
comparison between in-house and outsourcing. The actual acquisition will allow
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greater participation to find the best altenate.
Aircraft Specifications
Name King Air C90GTx, Beechcraft (USA)
Engine Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A-135A
Max. Range 1,260 Nautical Miles
Maximum occupants 2+6
Cabin interior dimension 57 inch (Height), 54 inch (Width), 12 feet 7 inch(Length)
Useful load 1488 Kg
Takeoff distance 605 m
Landing distance 640 m
Ground roll 321 m
Max operating altitude 30,000 ft (9144 m)
Hiring from Outside India
29. The rental figures for a foreign registered aircraft for seeding operation includes
aircraft, crew, flares, ATF, etc. It is a package deal for around 2-3 months.
a. It could cost $27 to $214 per acre-foot of water in a low cost scenario and $53 to
$427 per acre-foot in a high-cost scenario.
b. This can approximately cost Rs 30-40 Crore for 2-3 month operation.
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c. Annual costs would be in the region of Rs 120-160 Crore for a single year.
30. The demerits of this option are:-
a. Economically and feasibility wise not viable for a long term perspective.
b. We will loose our control and flexibility over the operation.
c. We have to provide all the charges whether the experiment is successful or not in
the first instance.
d. Approval will be required afresh from different ministry from India. It will
certainly delay the operation and more possibility of missing a favorable
meteorological condition for seeding.
Hiring Aircraft from within India
31. Hiring charges for NORMAL FLYING of C-90 aircraft is ~ Rs 80000/hour plus airport
charges, handling charges, and GST. This amounts to ~ Rs 1-1.5 Lacks/hour or 1-1.5
Crore/100-hour/year.
32. Demerits
a. The aircraft in this case will have to be modified as presently there is no aircraft in
India that is equipped for cloud seeding. The proprietor of the Aircraft might deny
for such operation or may charge more.
b. This doesn't include crew accommodation charges and their life insurance. So, for
such a sensitive operation they might charge anything of their choice ranging from
Rs 5-Crore to 50-Crore for insurance.
c. We have to provide all the charges whether the experiment is successful or not in
the first instance.
Captive Resources
33. Since the requirement is extensive and sustained, captive resources would lead to
lower per unit cost (i.e. per hour cost of operation). However, since cloud seeding activity
is seasonal, it can be argued that the resource would be idling during the remaining part of
the year while fixed costs are still being incurred. The captive resource can be put to
alternate use within the government so that utilization is adequate to cover the costs.
a. The payback period would be just about a year, which works out much lower than
hiring.
b. India will have its own first of its kind aircraft for a novel purpose. This will help in
capacity building. May regions in India are water deficit and this capacity can
herald expansion of capacity for other regions in India.
c. The aircraft purchased can be used for several other scientific purpose like LiDAR
mapping ( of ground terrain, rivers, canals, forestry cover ), Surveillance, pollution
monitoring along with cloud seeding. Incidentally, the seasonality of seeding for
pollution and rainfall are complimentary.
d. Captive resource will allow full control which will enable us to catch fleeting
opportunities at short notice. With hiring, opportunities at short notice will be
missed. For the proposed National Cloud Seeding Centre at IITK, captive
resources is the only option, which is envisaged to provide services not only
within India but in neighbouring countries also.
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Cost Estimates
34. The cost estimates for captive aircraft works out around Rs.60 crores in the first year
(including procurement) and around Rs. 9 crore per year thereafter. The annual
breakdown is as follows:
Sl.
No Head Year-1 Year-2 Year-3 Year-4
Non-recurring (Equipment Procurement Cost)
1 CCN
2 SMPS
3 CCP 530.00
4 MWR
5 Radiosonde (Balloons and Sensors)
6 Receiver and Antenna 50.00
7 AWS 75.00
8 Aircraft and Fuel Equipment 3,510.00
9 Other Costs 50.00
Recurring
10 Manpower 30.72 30.72 30.72 30.72
11 Contingencies 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00
12 Consumables 547.00 547.00 547.00 547.00
13 Travel 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
Aircraft Maintenance (100 hour
14 flying) 129.00 129.00 129.00 129.00
Subtotal 4,932.72 717.72 717.72 717.72
Institutional Overhead @20% 986.54 143.54 143.54 143.54
Grand Total 5,919.26 861.26 861.26 861.26
35. Details of individual cost heads is as follows:-
a. Manpower budget
i. 1 Post-doc and 1 Project Engineer (consolidated salary @50,000/month),
ii. 1 Research Engineer (consolidated salary @ 1,00,000/month and
iii. 2 SRF (consolidated salary @ 28,000/month)
b. Other Cost
i. Modification in Aircraft
ii. Domestic Travel: PI’s, PhD students and staff will visit all the sites from IITK.
iii. Contingency: Field-work expenses, local transport, food and accommodation
for IITK.
iv. Consumables: Maintenance of equipment, Flare rack (55 flares/100hr),
Rainfall sample test.
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v. Equipment: Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN), Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer
(SMPS), Cloud Condensation Probe (CCP) and Microwave Radiometer (MWR),
Radiosonde balloons and sensors approx. cost is Rs. 5.30 crores.
c. Notes
i. The instruments are available at IITK and will used during experiment.
ii. This instrument is in collaboration with IISc Bangalore
Deliberations with UP Government
36. IIT Kanpur has successfully and repeatedly demonstrated its capability in creating
artificial rains using its own aircraft, which are small and hence sufficient for
demonstration purpose only. For actual effect, larger aircraft are required for which
Dornier 228 was requested from HAL Kanpur for proof of concept. These initiatives
invariably suffered from non-availability of aircraft at the last moment for one reason or
the other.
37. During deliberations on the subject with the concerned government officials, an in-
principle recommendation exists that the state needs to proceed in this direction, but no
GO has been issued or budgetary allocation approved as yet. The earlier initiatives were
carried out by IIT Kanpur at its own costs under internal R&D budget.
Recommendations
38. Now that PoC stage is over, if the initiative is to be taken forward, it must be taken at a
large scale for meaningful impact. So far it has been an R&D effort which could be
internalized within IIT Kanpur. Once it moves into the implementation phase, it needs to
be progressively built into a self-sustaining independent operation, while IIT Kanpur
continues R&D to achieve better results, lower costs and higher rates of success.
39. The recommendations are as follows:-
a. Detailed study to analyse available aircraft options based on:-
i. Suitability for the primary purpose of cloud seeding with specified secondary
usage by the state government.
ii. Operations from remote locations as per state of airfields in the vicinity.
iii. Per unit cost effectiveness in terms of load capacity and per hour cost of
operations.
iv. Availability of spares, maintainability and support by manufacturer.
b. Estimate of total requirement based on which it can be decided whether one or
more aircraft needs to be dedicated for Bundelkhand or only part of the aircraft
capability would be needed. This will, depend upon the load carrying capability
and range of the aircraft decided upon.
c. Issue of clearances, government orders and budgetary support.
d. If dedicated resources are justified, activation of airfield located centrally within
Bundelkhand to reduce the overhead of to and fro flying from remote airfield.
Ideally, this could an airfield from which civil aviation operations are envisaged
otherwise as well.
e. For the first three years, the operations need to be conducted direct under IIT
Kanpur so that the mathematical models involved in forecasting optimal
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conditions for cloud seeding can be fine-tuned for the region and cloud seeding
techniques are perfected. Thereafter operations can be made independent while
IIT Kanpur remains involved with mathematical modelling and ongoing R&D in
term of:-
i. Better forecasting of optimal conditions and automation thereof through
Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence.
ii. Fine tuning the techniques and flight levels for best results.
iii. Improvement in dispersal equipment.
iv. Better materials with associated changes in equipment.
v. Training and simulation.
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