Fibonacci Application in Financial Markets: Oct 19, 2020 6:15 PM +02:00 Analyst
Fibonacci Application in Financial Markets: Oct 19, 2020 6:15 PM +02:00 Analyst
The word “Fibonacci” often appears in trading and it is likely that you have already seen or
heard of it - for good reason. Fibonacci numbers are numbers that are arranged according
to a specific formula to create a unique numerical sequence. Within the sequence lies the
Golden Ratio of 1.618, which appears frequently throughout nature and is also used
extensively in technical analysis, along with other Fibonacci numbers and ratios, to help
identify areas of support and resistance.
Fibonacci numbers get their name from the Italian mathematician who discovered them, ‘
Leonardo Fibonacci’ in the thirteenth century. While his book “Liber Abaci” introduced the
number sequence to the Western world, traces of it can be found as early as 200 BC in
Indian mathematics.
The number sequence starts with 1 and each number in the sequence can be arrived at by
adding the two previous numbers in the sequence.
Fibonacci_sequence: 0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233,377,610,987,1597,2584,4181,765
,1094,17711
Fibonacci in nature:
Sunflower seeds have a very distinct spiral pattern to their make-up. Later on in the math
section, we discuss the spiral feature of the Fibonacci sequence. Also, sunflowers tend to
have 34 spirals in total, a Fibonacci number.
Daisies are typically found to have 34, 55 or 89 petals – all Fibonacci numbers.
Extreme weather patterns have a tendency to form spirals, therefore, their very structure
comprises of Fibonacci.
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Other examples where Fibonacci numbers can be observed, include: music, art (Mona
Lisa), architecture and biology. Right now, you can look down at your hands to notice that
you probably have eight fingers, five digits on each hand, three bones in each
finger, two bones in each one thumb and one thumb on each hand (8, 5, 3, 2, 1, 1).
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Fibonacci numbers are fairly significant on their own, however when analyzing the ratios
that exist among the infinite number sequence, the real value of Fibonacci becomes clear.
The Golden Ratio:
Take any number in the sequence and divide it by the number before it and the answer will
be 1.618, or close to this number for the numbers from 1 to 55 in the sequence. This is
often referred to by the Greek letter ϕ “Phi”.
Examples:
a/b = ϕ
17711/10946 = 1.61803
6765/4181 = 1.61803
21/13 = 1.6154 (less approximate for numbers 55 and lower)
FIBONACCI APPLICATION IN FINANCIAL MARKETS
While the application of Fibonacci in nature keeps many graduate level mathematics
students busy, traders have more pressing concerns: Applying the study to financial
markets. In its most common form, Fibonacci makes use of mathematically relevant ratios
to project possible areas/zones of support and resistance.
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FIBONACCI IN THE FOREX MARKET
Forex traders utilize Fibonacci retracements to aid in identifying possible key levels
of support and resistance. These levels are used as guidelines for traders looking to enter
or exit the market along with appropriate risk management techniques.
HOW TO CREATE A FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT ON A FOREX PAIR
Before delving deeper into practical examples, traders need to have a basic view of the
overall market being analyzed (EUR/USD or USD/ZAR etc.). This starts by identifying the
trend; this can be long, medium or short-term depending on trading style. There are various
methods that can be used to identify the trend such as simple price action, indicators
like Moving Averages (MA) , as well as other methods. The reason why identifying the
trend is important is because the Fibonacci tool itself does not determine a trend bias,
rather it identifies key support and resistance levels.
Further your knowledge on trend trading
Implementing the Fibonacci retracement requires identifying a large move either up/down
on the forex price chart. This will produce key levels using Fibonacci metrics. The dueling
nature of a forex pair has the tendency for mean reversion, which can produce major
moves from which Fibonacci retracements can be drawn.
The key levels to look out for are the 38.2% and 61.8% respectively. The 50% level is not
technically a Fibonacci level but is often included in charting packages and regarded as an
important threshold. This level simply marks half the market move between the initial high
and low or vice versa. The chart below shows a simple implementation of the Fibonacci
retracement on a GBP/ZAR daily chart. Highlighted in black are the respective low to
high points which are used to plot the Fibonacci levels.
GBP/ZAR daily chart – uptrend:
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<alt image desc> GBP/ZAR daily chart with Fibonacci
Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG
Traders may also utilize the Fibonacci retracement from a high to low price level as
expressed on the USD/SGD chart below.
USD/SGD daily chart – downtrend:
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<alt image desc> USD/CAD Daily chart with Fibonacci
Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG Charts
This is the most simplistic form of the Fibonacci retracement within forex markets. The
versatility of the Fibonacci retracement function means that it is not limited to one time
frame as seen above. A more complicated approach involves several Fibonacci
retracements across different time frames. Instituting multiple time frame analysis can
allow for multiple Fibonacci retracements drawn from major moves. The next article in the
Fibonacci series will go into more depth with and practical examples to show how exactly
traders can implement this strategy.
FIBONACCI RETRACEMENTS TO HELP TO SEE THE BIGGER PICTURE
Forex traders often make the mistake of relying solely on Fibonacci levels to take positions
in the market but this can be detrimental as this can make them too one dimensional.
Additional support from other indicators, chart patterns, candlestick patterns and
fundamentals are essential to formulate a better overall strategy; and ultimately a well-
informed trade decision. The Fibonacci can be an extremely powerful tool in forex trading
so fully understanding its foundations can be beneficial to any trader looking to implement
the tool within their trading strategy.
If you would like to try drawing Fibonacci retracements, this tool is available on IG’s
platforms, and can be accessed with a demo account. To sign up for a demo account with
IG Group, please click here.
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From the peak, the drawing tool shows price action struggling to make a clear directional
break below the 38.2% level – the reciprocal of the 61.8% ( 1 - 0.618 ). Price hovered
around until a decisive breakdown toward the 61.8% level which acted as support.
This example shows how the 38.2 and 50 percent levels are less significant than the 61.8%
level - which acted as a major level of support. While Fibonacci levels are not perfect,
meaning price action may move through the defined levels, it is still a very useful indicator
revealing where a particular market may run into support and resistance or consolidate
before breaking into a fresh trend.
If you would like to try drawing Fibonacci retracements, this tool is available on IG’s
platforms, and can be accessed with a demo account. To sign up for a demo account with
IG Group, please click here.
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This article will discuss the application of Fibonacci Retracements using multiple time
frames, focusing on how these levels may provide inflection points as support and/or
resistance levels.
EUR/USD Monthly chart
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FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LEVELS TO LOCATE INFLECTIONS
After the historical move has been identified, the weekly chart can then be used to locate
other key major moves and potential inflection points.
Following on from the EUR/USD example, the weekly chart below now includes Fibonacci
levels from two additional major moves. The first Fibonacci retracement (pink) is taken
from the January 2017 low to the February 2018 high (the medium-term move), while the
second Fibonacci retracement (orange), represents the shorter-term move between the
February 2018 high and the March 2020 low.
EUR/USD Weekly Chart
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As demonstrated above, there are multiple instances where these levels have provided
clear areas of support and resistance, highlighting the formation of inflection points on
numerous occasions, often driving a penchant for mean reversal. Although all retracement
levels provide information, the golden ratio 0f 61.8% and it’s reciprocal, 38.2%, are strong
levels to bear in mind when using Fibonacci retracements for the purposes of trend
continuation, often providing potential signs of a pullback in trend or a start of a new trend
altogether once these levels are broken.
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER WITH FIBONACCI APPLICATION ON MULTIPLE TIME
FRAMES
Now that we have identified the strong levels of support and resistance from the long-term
charts, the daily chart can be used to represent the way in which these levels have
impacted short-term price action. From a visual perspective, the EUR/USD daily charts
demonstrates how these levels have impacted moves in the short-term, with price action
exhibiting a number of inflections at these levels.
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July before the bullish breakout which persisted until price action came into a wall of
resistance at the psychological level of 1.1800 which then became a key level of support.
SUMMARY
• Fibonacci retracements levels may provide key support and resistance levels
• Fibonacci retracements may be more powerful when used in conjunction with other
technical tools
If you would like to try drawing Fibonacci retracements, this tool is available on IG’s
platforms, and can be accessed with a demo account. To sign up for a demo account with
IG Group, please click here.
Fibonacci Projections
Oct 20, 2020 6:14 PM +02:00Richard Snow, Michael Boutros
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Fibonacci Extension Explained
This article builds on the foundational knowledge of Fibonacci retracements and Fibonacci
numbers in general. Therefore, it is strongly recommended that you familiarize yourself
with these concepts by reading our introductory article in the Fibonacci sub-module.
Fibonacci Spiral Highlighting Key Fibonacci Numbers and the 1.618 Ratio
While the familiar Fibonacci Retracements are used to determine how far the price may
retrace the original move, Fibonacci Expansions can help us determine where price might
head after the retracement is completed.
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1. The base of the large primary move: Point ‘A’ shown in the DXY chart below, depicts
the base of the original/primary move
2. The peak of the primary move: Point ‘B’ depicts the peak of the primary move and
the beginning of the retracement.
3. The end of the retracement - the swing low: Point ‘C’ marks the end of the
retracement and the last of the three points for the Fibonacci extension tool. Point
‘C’ is marked with a reasonable degree of confidence based off the strong move in
the direction of the primary move shown by the long green candle.
• Primary move: The line connecting point A to point B, i.e. line AB.
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How to Apply the Fibonacci Extension when Trading
The chart below shows the standard Fibonacci levels/ratios as well as point ‘D’ which has
been added to depict a 100% advance or ‘extension’ from the low of the retracement line
BC in the direction of the primary move. The CD line is the same length as the AB line.
Taking a closer look, there are levels or broader zones on the chart below where price
paused near Fib levels that acted as support or resistance. Of particular importance is the
61.8% level- these levels can provide potential areas of support or resistance for
future price action and should be monitored closely.
For instance, a bullish trader entering the market soon after the swing low at C may look to
the 61.8% level as an initial exit point while the 100% extension (point D) may serve as an
indication of a secondary exit point. Often times corrections in price trends take the shape
of two equal legs and as such, once price exhaustion is identified at the 100% extension,
the focus shifts towards initial support back at the 61.8% extension. The subsequent
charts shows price rebounding off this mark on the pullback as the extension offers
support. Always keep in mind that extensions should be used like basic trendlines – a
break of support turns the level into resistance and vice versa.
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Traders ought to be looking for entries in the direction of the trend, unless price action
reveals otherwise, hence the inclusion of the long trade in this example. But this type of
analysis applies just the same for the short side of the market.
If you would like to try drawing Fibonacci retracements, this tool is available on IG’s
platforms, and can be accessed with a demo account. To sign up for a demo account with
IG Group, please click here.
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identified a prominent move off of a long-term chart (usually a high and low of significant
value that have yet to be traded through), a Fibonacci Retracement can be drawn by
connecting these two points of interest.
With the use of an example below, the EUR/USD monthly chart highlights the Fibonacci
Retracement plotted between the September 2000 low and the March 2008 high. These
two levels are significant as they represent the historical high and low which have yet to be
violated.
From a long-term perspective, these Fibonacci levels have provided support and
resistance for the major currency pair, with price action often finding inflections at these
zones which have been identified by the Fibonacci retracement.
EUR/USD Monthly Chart
Now, with the use of a four-hour chart, a Fibonacci retracement can be taken from a more
recent major move. From a short-term perspective, the chart highlights how the 61.8%
Fibonacci retracement level has provided support, with price action bouncing off this level
before continuing the upward move until the 50% retracement came into play. Likewise,
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price action stalled at the 38.2% retracement level and once this level was broken, the
upward trend gained momentum, resulting in a bullish breakout, until reaching
the psychological level of 1.2000.
EUR/USD 4 Hour Chart
For a trader who has entered into a position, these levels may also be used to manage the
risk of the trade. For a trader who is holding a long position, a tight stop may be placed
below the previous retracement level, in the event that the trend reverses towards the
downside. Likewise, a trader who was holding a short position could place a tight stop
above the higher Fibonacci retracement level.
If you would like to try drawing Fibonacci retracements, this tool is available on IG’s
platforms, and can be accessed with a demo account. To sign up for a demo account with
IG Group, please click here.
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when looking for potential areas of support and resistance that may appear in ranging
markets.
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The daily GBP/USD chart below presents an area where price had a tendency to range
between two Fibonacci levels. The major move produced in the month of March, 2020
presented a major move from which a Fibonacci retracement could be drawn; and for
approximately four months after, price action showed multiple inflections off of these
retracement levels while prices were mean reverting/ranging. Also added here is the 76.4%
retracement level, which is a commonly included level to be used with Fibonacci
retracements (1-.236 = .764).
Notice how support showed at both 38.2 and 50% retracement levels helped to exhibit
support at various points through the range, which helped to hold the lows after prices
pulled back.
GBP/USD Daily Price Chart (Feb 2020 – August 2020)
These Fibonacci levels correspond to the Fibonacci retracement drawn on the weekly
chart from the 2017 high to the 2018 low, as shown below:
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When in a mean reversion/range environment, the trader’s goal is often to concentrate risk
outlay by relying on the possibility of range continuation. As in, if the range is going to
break, the trader would likely want to investigate loss mitigation given that the condition
they were looking to work with no longer applies.
This can allow for relatively tight stop placement, particularly if support is defined by a
Fibonacci retracement level. This can allow the trader to focus on risk minimization when
plotting for range continuation; whether that support is coming from a 38.2, 50 or 61.8%
retracement levels.
If you would like to try drawing Fibonacci retracements, this tool is available on IG’s
platforms, and can be accessed with a demo account. To sign up for a demo account with
IG Group, please click here.
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Implementing multiple time frame analysis can aid traders, bymagnifying long-term
information in the effort of finding more granular accuracy in terms of possible entry
points. This article will outline how Fibonacci retracements can be used to identify
breakout opportunities and how other technical analysis techniques can beincorporated to
compliment possible breakout decisions.
HOW TO TRADE RANGE BREAKOUTS WITH FIBONACCI RETRACEMENTS
The GBP/USD charts below exhibit a potential breakout opportunity using Fibonacci
retracements. The first step as always when using the Fibonacci retracement is to locate
the relevant high/low or vice versa and draw the Fibonacci retracement as seen on the
weekly chart (red box, to the left of the chart). This represents a well-defined high to low.
As evident from successive lower highs and lower lows price has tended towards a
downward bias. This step is key as identifying the trend will aid in future trade decisions.
Trend identification can be recognized in various ways such as price action (used below),
oscillators and other technical indicators.
GBP/USD Daily chart:
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At that point, buyers take-over and force a bullish breakout at the same 76.4% retracement
that had previously held the highs (indicated by the green box). And after the breakout
takes place, buyers continue to drive as a fresh short-term bullish trend has formed.
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FIBONACCI BREAKOUTS: SUMMARY
Range breakouts can be complex to identify and analyze but implementing Fibonacci
retracements can give traders a clearer picture of where support and resistance
zones exist. In conjunction with other technical tools, traders can make educated trade
decisions on Fibonacci breakout strategies.
4. Locate range
TALKING POINTS:
• Benefits of using the Fibonacci on Long-Term Charts
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BENEFITS OF USING THE FIBONACCI ON LONG-TERM CHARTS
Utilizing a long-term chart for an initial set of Fibonacci levels allows traders to find key
levels as per the Fibonacci sequence; and this may hold value on even shorter-term charts
or in shorter-term strategies. This can be true for any time frame but the value behind
starting on a long-term chart points to the statistical significance of larger sample sizes
taken over a more robust data set that can only be offered by time.
Key levels indicated by the Fibonacci tool on the long-term chart can give short-term
traders highly important levels that would have not been identified using only a short-term
time frame. Once established, these key horizontal levels will serve as support and
resistance zones to regardless of trading style.
Visit the DailyFX Educational Center to enhance your trading knowledge
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25
FIBONACCION LONG-TERM CHARTS: SUMMARY
The strategy applied above purely conveys a simplistic approach to Fibonacci execution
on long-term charts. Differing time frames may be used on different markets. There are no
concrete guidelines to how this should be implemented. The takeaway from this strategy
is the importance of using the bigger picture to generate a more complete view. This is
merely one method that can be used as part of a larger strategy in conjunction with other
technical indicators or price action techniques.
If you would like to try drawing Fibonacci retracements, this tool is available on IG’s
platforms, and can be accessed with a demo account. To sign up for a demo account with
IG Group, please click here.
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With the Fibonacci retracement applied, the trader can see how the retracement levels
from the move provided key inflections of support and resistance for the pair, highlighting
a number of turns as price action engaged with these key points on the chart.
Once the key levels have been defined, a shorter time frame may then be used when
seeking entry/exit signals.
FOREX FIBONACCI SCALPING
While longer time frames can help to smooth out the effect of short-term fluctuations,
providing a clearer perspective of overall market conditions, the day trader or scalper does
not usually intend on holding positions for long periods of time. So now that support and
resistance levels have been identified from the 4-hour chart, day traders can move down to
a shorter-term chart to plot execution potential.
On the below 30-minute chart, a number of inflections have been identified with either blue
or red boxes. For the scalper – who may be using an even shorter-term chart for execution
– these inflections produce trend changes or reversals that can allow for the on-boarding
of positions. Fibonacci levels can be perhaps even more powerful when meshed with
another support/resistance mechanism, such as a trendline; as this can offer an element
of confluent, giving buyers multiple reasons to re-enter the equation and thereby further
helping to substantiate the move.
EUR/USD 30-minute Chart
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For FX scalpers, these inflections can open the door to key setups or opportunities. For
actual execution, short-term traders can also incorporate chart formations, or price action,
to further investigate which inflections may be opportunistic and which they may want to
be cautious around.
Although short-term traders may be constantly watching the chart, it doesn’t mean
that risk management should be avoided, in fact the number one mistake made by
traders is poor risk management. In periods of high volatility, the possibility of large market
gaps increases and may be detrimental to a trader’s portfolio. Although technical
analysis can be used as a guide for price action, providing potential signals, risk
management should still be carefully practiced at all times; because at no point is the
future anything but an uncertainty, and tools like Fibonacci can merely help traders to
further define the backdrop in the effort of employing strategy.
For scalpers, the cost of poor risk or trade management may be even amplified, given that
scalpers will often look to place more trades with a higher frequency; thereby creating
additional exposure over the larger sample sizes. Faults in an approach have a tendency to
be magnified under greater numbers or examples; so while analysis is certainly important
to scalpers and long-term traders alike, there may be even more motivation for short-term
traders to ensure of a proper risk management plan.
If you would like to try drawing Fibonacci retracements, this tool is available on IG’s
platforms, and can be accessed with a demo account. To sign up for a demo account with
IG Group, please click here.
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Talking Points:
- As looked at earlier in this module, Fibonacci retracements can help traders to identify
possible support/resistance.
- We’ve previously discussed how a trader can use Fibonacci retracements on long-term-
charts, and by focusing on multiple major moves traders may be able to glean confluent
areas of support/resistance. This can provide multiple reasons for buyers or sellers to
defend these key spots on the chart, keeping the door open for reversals or retracements.
Fibonacci is wrapped in mystique, and this makes the story around it that much more
interesting. But for applicability in markets, the simple version is that Fibonacci
retracement levels offer potential areas for support and/or resistance to develop; and
because market participants may use these levels in their analysis and, in turn, because
these prices have potential impact for price behavior, this can be an excellent addition to
the FX traders repertoire of support and resistance analysis.
Origins
Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci is credited with finding the Fibonacci sequence
in the 13th century, hence the name ‘Fibonacci’. And while his book Liber Abaci introduced
the Fibonacci sequence to the western world, traces can actually be found going back as
far as 200 BC in Indian mathematics. The sequence is fairly simple: Two numbers added
together produce the next value. So 1+1 = 2, and then 1+2 = 3, and then 2+3 = 5, 5+3 = 8,
and so on. The first 22 values of the Fibonacci sequence are printed below:
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597, 2584, 4181, 6765, 10946,
17711
This starts to get interesting once we look at the numbers relationship within the sequence
to each other. If we take a value and divide by the preceding value, we will get a number
approximately close to 161.8%. So, each number in the sequence is 161.8% greater than
the prior value after we get out of the initial portion of the sequence (after the value of 89).
This is the Golden Ratio of 161.8%.
17711/10946 = 1.61803
10946/6765 = 1.61803
6765/4181 = 1.61803
What struck Fibonacci almost a thousand years ago and the same thing that amazed a
thousand years before that is how widely this ratio, and this sequence can be found in the
world around us. In Liber Abaci, Fibonacci used the mating cycle of rabbits as an example,
showing how rabbit populations in isolation would grow according to the numerical
sequence of 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, etc. But this is just the tip of the iceberg, the number of
flower petals will often follow the sequence: Lilies have three petals while buttercups have
five, chicory’s have 21 and daisies have 34. Each petal is placed at .618 per turn in order to
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allow for maximum sunlight. Tree branches, in the way that trunks split and in the way that
branches will grow, display the Fibonacci sequence. Shells, hurricanes – even human faces
adhere to the Golden ratio in a geometric spiral pattern.
Right now, you can look down at your right arm to notice that you probably
have eight fingers, five on each hand, three bones in each finger,two bones in
each one thumb and one thumb on each hand. Oh – and the ratio between your forearm
and hand – that probably applies by the Golden ratio, as well.
Applicability to Markets
While the application of Fibonacci in nature keeps many graduate level mathematics
students busy, traders have more pressing concerns: Applying the study to financial
markets. In its most common form, Fibonacci is the use of the golden ratio in support and
resistance analysis. So, plot a significant move, draw a line at 61.8% of that move, and we
have an area to watch for a possible retracement to find support. The reciprocal of .618
is .382, so this gives us another value to work with at the 38.2% level.
On the chart below, we’re looking at the lifetime move in EUR/USD, taking the low in the
year 2000 up to the high in 2009. We start at the beginning of the move and draw the
retracement to the top, and 38.2% of the way-down we can see the retracement at 1.3056.
We can also see the 61.8% retracement of this move at 1.1212. Notice how this level
helped to set resistance in the pair for 15 out of 30 months after the level came into play in
January of 2015. As EUR/USD was dropping like a rock in anticipation of ECB QE coming
online in a few short months, we caught support at this level on the way down in January
of 2015; but after that we had eight consecutive months of resistance showing at or
around this key 61.8% retracement level.
EUR/USD Monthly: 15 of 30 Months with Resistance at 61.8% Retracement, 3 Months of
Support
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Chart prepared by James Stanley with TradingView Charts
The past few months have been quite the wild ride for EUR/USD. After a rather threatening
drop around the U.S. Presidential Election leading into the start of 2017 (shown in red
below), the pair put in an aggressive reversal as bulls have run amok. But – when prices
were in the process reversing from the prior bearish mode into a more bullish state, the
38.2% retracement of the post-Election move showed up as a bit of support (shown in
green) before the 61.8% retracement provided a bit of resistance (indicated with purple).
After prices broke above those highs and ran with reckless abandon, resistance has begun
to show at the 161.8% extension of that move (orange box).
EUR/USD Daily: Fib Applied to recent move in EUR/USD, 161.8 Extension Providing
Resistance
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21/55 = .3818 – rounded up to .382
34/89 = .382
55/144 = .3819
But we can go even a step further by dividing a value in the sequence by the value three
places later to consistently arrive at a value of 23.6.
13/55 = .2363
21/89 = .2359
34/144 = .2361
55/233 = .2361
This gives us another retracement value to work with of 23.6%. So, now we have the 23.6,
38.2 and 61.8% retracement levels to apply in the effort of finding support and/or
resistance.
We’re not done yet: We can still take this a step further. With 23.6, 38.2 and 61.8%
retracement levels, the study will be rather uneven with two values in one half of the
retracement and only one in the latter half. This has elicited creativity across market
participants, as many will simply take the reciprocal of 23.6 and apply that as a level, as
well. This would be the 76.4% retracement, which doesn’t have any actual Fibonacci
relevance behind it. But – at .786 we have an interesting number to work with, as this is the
square root of .618, and can be a potentially more attractive stand-in to .764.
This now gives us four values across the chart, and out of practice, many traders will apply
a mid-line at 50% which, again, has no actual Fibonacci value; but that observation is far
less important to traders than the fact that other traders and analysts have it on their chart
and, hence, may respond to it.
This now gives us five values to work with when applying Fibonacci retracements to
trading analysis: 23.6, 38.2, 50, 61.8 and 78.6 (or 76.4).
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bearish move. The 2015 high drawn down to the 2016 low is shown in orange below, and
we’ve used red and blue boxes to highlight a few of the more prominent instances of
resistance or support to have developed off of these intervals.
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Chart prepared by James Stanley with Tradingview charts
With this system of support and resistance in the analytical quiver of traders, price
action can be utilized to figure out how to trade with each of these potential support or
resistance inflections based on the context of that market’s condition at a specific point in
time.
The field of market analytics is full of indicators and strategies with a plethora of ways to
find out what to trade and how to do it. As a trader will often find very early, this is more of
a study of probability than it is prediction; as analysis is largely relegated to analyzing the
past to get the clearest picture of the present. Sure, sometimes those trends that have
happened in the past will continue in a manner similar to which they’ve come-in already,
allowing the trader to glean a bias that could be usable for their strategies. But, by and
large, the primary benefit of analysis, particularly technical analysis, is as a risk
management tool.
This is something investigated in the DailyFX Traits of Successful Traders research. In the
study, it becomes clear that ‘out-guessing’ the market on a constant and continuous basis
isn’t always a recipe for success, as sub-optimal risk management could eliminate the
benefit of a slightly favorable winning percentage.If you’d like access to that research, the
box below will allow for that.
This is where support and resistance can come into play. Support and resistance can help
as a risk management mechanism because it provides framework with which the trader
can implement their strategy. Let’s say, for instance, a trader is bullish on EUR/USD but is
struggling with timing the trade or managing their risk. Rather than just chase the move
higher, as driven by FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), the trader can simply wait for some
element of support to show up, at which point bullish positions can be investigated. The
trader can then implement an if-then statement: If the market remains bullish and if the
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pair is going to continue to build with bullish structure, then this support should hold and
I’ll be able to stay in the trade. Else, the trade can be exited with the goal of loss mitigation,
and the trader can simply look to get long at a more favorable price later.
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Chart prepared by James Stanley with Tradingview Charts
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from the same year at 1.1950. Notice the horizontal lines drawn at specific intervals of
23.6, 38.2, 50, 61.8 and 78.6: These are each Fibonacci retracement levels with which
traders can look to for support and/or resistance as prices continue to gyrate.
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Chart prepared by James Stanley with Tradingview charts
APPLICATION IN EQUITIES
Fibonacci retracements can also be utilized across equity indices on both short and long-
term basis. The earlier-year correction that took place in US equities helped to mark a
38.2% retracement in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, taking the low from the night of
the 2016 Presidential election up to the January, 2018 high.
DOW JONES DAILY PRICE CHART: EARLIER-YEAR CORRECTION MARKED BY 38.2%
RETRACEMENT OF POST-ELECTION RUN
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Chart prepared by James Stanley with Tradingview charts
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