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Statistics and Probability (Week 3)

This document provides information about a statistics and probability lesson on discrete probability distributions. It discusses a case study of reported workplace accidents at a hospital over one month. It provides the probability distribution for the number of reported accidents and calculates the population mean, variance, and standard deviation. It also provides examples of calculating expected value, variance, and standard deviation for other probability distributions.

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China Pandino
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86 views7 pages

Statistics and Probability (Week 3)

This document provides information about a statistics and probability lesson on discrete probability distributions. It discusses a case study of reported workplace accidents at a hospital over one month. It provides the probability distribution for the number of reported accidents and calculates the population mean, variance, and standard deviation. It also provides examples of calculating expected value, variance, and standard deviation for other probability distributions.

Uploaded by

China Pandino
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

Module 1: Discrete Probability Distribution


Subject Teacher: Mr. John Herald F. Alejandro

Statistics and Probability (Week 3)


Lesson 7 - Discrete Probability Distribution
A laboratory supervisor in a type III hospital is investigating a number of reported on-the-job
training accidents over a period of one month. Based on past records, she has derived the
following probability distribution for x; where x is the number of reported accidents per
month.
Accidents Reported Probability P(x)
0 0.5
1 0.25
2 0.10
3 0.10
4 0.05
To calculate the population mean (μ):
μ = (0)(0.5) + (1)(0.25) + (2)(0.10) + (3)(0.10) + (4)(0.05)
μ = 0.95
there is 0.95 (nearly 1) accident reported on average per month.

To determine the variance and standard deviation:

x P(x) x ⋅ P(x) ⋅P(x)


0 0.5 0 0 0
1 0.25 0.25 1 0.25
2 0.1 0.2 4 0.4
3 0.1 0.3 9 0.9
4 0.05 0.2 16 0.8
total 1.00 0.95 2.35

variance: σ = 2.35 - (0.95)^2


= 1.45 accident
standard deviation: σ = √1.45 = 1.20 accidents.

Investor's Dilemma
A rich investor was puzzled about the two investments after dress on which he is about to put
in a large sum of money. He learned that the two investments have the same average return
and investment (ROI). The query is which is the best investment pocket?

Compare the two packages, determine the "expected value" of the random variable E(x) by
calculating the population mean (μ). This expected value is the long-run average of
occurrences.

1. Multiply each of the values of x by the associated probability (x) ⋅ P(x).


2. The population mean is the sum of the products. μ = Σ(x) ⋅ P(x) = E(x).

Note: A decision on which is best, cannot be made because they have the same expected
value ROI. This is only a practical description of the data. Thus, we continue by measuring
the variability of the data.

To measure the variability of the random variable, compute the population variance

(σ2).

1. Subtract the population mean (μ) from each of the values (x) to get (x - μ)
2. Square the differences (x - μ)^2
3. Multiply each squared differences to their associated probability (x - μ)^2 ⋅ P(x).
4. The population variance (σ^2) is equal to the sum product of the squared difference and
its probability. σ^2 = Σ(x - μ)^2 ⋅ P(x)

To Illustrate,

Interpretation of Results:
1. The average returns of investment (ROI) are equal to three million for both packages.
2. On average, both are expected to deliver the same benefit to the investor.
3. Data are not the same, so there is variation.
4. There is less variability in package B than in package A
5. The lesser the variability the more consistent is it's average
6. Since both packages shall deliver the same return of 3 million, it is better to invest in
package B as it ensures that every year the investor would get 3 million

Lesson 7.1 - Discrete Probability Distribution


x 9 9 12 5 8 4 3
P(x) 0.3 0.12 0.9 0.14 0.9 0.05 0.92

I. Find
a. Expected value
b. variance
c. Standard deviation

a. to find the expected value, we will get the mean.

x P(x) μ = (x · P(x))
9 0.3 2.7
9 0.12 1.08
12 0.9 10.8
5 0.14 0.7
8 0.9 7.2
4 0.05 0.2
3 0.92 2.76
= 25.44

b. to get the variance


x P(x) μ = (x - μ)2 · P(x)
9 0.3 2.7 81.08
9 0.12 1.08 32.43
12 0.9 10.8 162.57
5 0.14 0.7 58.49
8 0.9 7.2 273.74
4 0.05 0.2 22.98
3 0.92 2.76 463.27
= 25.44 = 1094.56

c. To get the standard deviation, we will just get the square root of the variance
√1094.56 = 33.08

Example 2:

Johnny is a successful businessman, he motivates himself by estimating his sales using the
probability distribution, For the month of July, he estimates his sales as follows

x 1 3 4 1 2 6
P(x) 0.2 0.12 0.04 0.05 0.3 0.9

Find:
a. Expected Value
b. Variance
c. Standard Deviation

a. To get the expected value

The Expected value of Johnny's estimation is 6.77


b. To get the variance, we square the difference of x and μ and multiply to P(x)

The variance we get in Johnny's estimation is 17.77


c. To get the standard deviation, we will get the square root of the variance

√17.7 = 4.21

Lesson 8 – Normal Curve


A teacher who is handling mathematics subjects evaluated the readiness of 15 students in the
subject. He gave a diagnostic test containing 100 items and recorded the scores as follows:

45, 55, 55, 55, 65, 65, 65, 65, 65, 65, 65, 75, 75, 75, 85.

How can you present the data in a more organized manner?

When do we say that the scores are normally distributed?

Remember that the data can be presented using tables, charts, or graphs. We can use a stem-
and-leaf plot for a small or moderate set of data.

From the stem-and-leaf plot or histogram, you can observe that the mean, median, and mode
are the same.

Try to connect the midpoint of the top of the bars from the frequency polygon. From the
figure at the right, you can see that the graph is symmetrical form the main

Normal Curve
Construct a normal curve with a given
μ = 15
σ = 10

Steps to follow

Step 1: Make a normal curve


Step 2: Plot the mean in the centre

Step 3: Since our standard deviation is 10, subtract 10 to the left and add 10 to the right

Quiz: Classify the data according to nature (Quantitative or Qualitative)


1. ID number of students
2. No. of pages in a book.
3. Date of birth
4. Model of the cellphone used
5. Number of text message sent daily
6. Daily allowance.
7. Computer rental fee
8. Kilowatt hour used per month
9. No. of students per class.
10. Monthly expenses for internet used
Weekly Output
Given the x values and P(x)
Find:
a. Population Mean
b. Variance
c. Standard Deviation
x 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

P(x) 0.12 0.8 0.03 0.45 0.04 0.12 0.1

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