International Journal of Smart Home

Vol. 9, No. 3 (2015), pp. 239-252

http://dx.doi.org/10.14257/ijsh.2015.9.3.22

Life Cycle Cost Prediction for Rolling Stocks in Maintenance Phase

Based on VBA Language Program

Jiamin Fang and Lin Ji

Branch of Accounting, Jilin Business and Technology College, Changchun 130062,
PR China
ccfjm@sina.com
Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics, Hangzhou 310038, PR China
linji1221@126.com

Abstract
In order to predict and analyze the LCC during rolling stocks’ maintenance phase, provide
the important support for the decision during rolling stocks’ design, production, operation
and disposal, mitigate the risks for high expenditure, the LCC prediction software is
developed with VBA programming language in Microsoft Excel environment based on
various rolling stocks’ maintenance scenarios. This software can collect the LCC input and
predict the LCC during rolling stocks’ maintenance phase. The data input is based on the
history data and RAMS information for each system and approved by the engineers. This
software is validated by several systems and a specific metro project. It shows very wide
applicability for LCC prediction for comparing and analyzing for customer and design and
friendly interface to the users.

Keywords: rolling stocks, life cycle costs, maintenance costs, software development, VBA

1. Introduction
After a period of declining utilization, the use of rolling stocks is now booming
increasing and is predicted to continue the increase in a very long period as the speed
and convenience of rolling stocks transport in comparison to the increasing traffic
densities and delays of traditional transport [1]. Meantime, rolling stocks production
and design is a long-term and complex activity with high investment costs. After
produced, it is difficult and expensive to modify the initial solution.
The main goal of the life cycle studies is to support the product development by
predicting the LCC impact and taking engineering actions [2]. Therefore, the design
solution of the rolling stocks shall be detail evaluated in the very initial phase. The
customers of rolling stocks take the quality of rolling stocks into consideration during
rolling stocks procurement as in other filed. Furthermore, they gradually pay more
attention on LCC for rolling stocks requiring the reliability, availability, maintainability
and safety (RAMS) in the last decade. The LCC evaluation is one aspect of RAMS
evaluation. With the precondition of ensuring the normal operation of rolling stocks, the
LCC shall be minimized during each phase of rolling stocks. LCC involves the
evaluation of all future costs related to the life cycle of the system [3]. In addition,
strategies and technologies shall be developed to evaluate rolling stocks’ LCC. LCC is
the cumulative costs of rolling stocks procurement and operation with the period from
the conceptual phase to the disposal phase. How to reduce LCC wit h precondition of
ensuring the rolling stocks’ performance has become customers and producers mutual

ISSN: 1975-4094 IJSH

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concern. Because operating and maintenance costs accounted for more than 66% of the
LCC [4], it is necessary to carry out effective prediction, analysis and evaluation of
LCC during the maintenance phase.
Currently the world has carried out research on rolling stocks’ LCC and had
remarkable achievements, but LCC studies in China still in the preliminary phase. Lin
exposited the definition of LCC, system modeling, data collection, costs characteristics
research and evaluation to describes the LCC analysis [5]. Wang proposed the LCC
model with six main costs items for electric locomotives, and developed the analysis
software for the electric locomotives [6]. Jun and Kim presented a life cycle costs
model of railway vehicle based on the UNIFE LCC model for evaluation the life cycle
costs of total railway system [7]. Xu proposed the LCC model in the means of costs
elements breakdown for the 25-style railway passenger vehicles [8]. Zhou and Xie
described the basic process of software development for the LCC of rolling stocks,
provided the basic principle and framework for software development [9]. According to
the investigation from Yu, rolling stocks design philosophy for abroad modern
companies have transferred from the core aim of function design to the RAMS and LCC
engineering design, the ideas extended from solid rolling stocks products’ design to the
virtual design rolling stocks services [10]. Liu proposed the concept of optimal LCC,
identified five main costs items and verified via the empirical analysis [11]. Dina et al.
proposed an activity-based life cycle costing model and stress the importance of AB-
LCC costs systems [12].
According to existing literature, the research of product LCC is mainly on the model
creation. There are only a few studies as regarding to software development. Therefore,
in order to meet the requirements of the customer and ensure the reliability, availability,
maintainability and safety of the rolling stocks, the software is developed for LCC
prediction, analyze and compare the maintenance phase costs. This software is created
with VBA (Visual Basic for Applications) program language based on Excel
spreadsheet.
In the design phase, the focus is usually on minimizing the rolling stocks’
procurement costs whilst often little attention is paid to rolling stocks’ maintenance
costs. In addition, it is extensively recognized that the costs related to the operation and
maintenance of the system during the life cycle could be many times higher than the
procurement costs [13]. In order to solve this problem, LCC predictor software is
developed majorly covering the LCC predication for rolling stocks during maintenance.

2. LCC Prediction for Rolling Stocks

In normal LCC prediction, LCC's practical application is limited by the lack of
reliable data, complexity of the development process and conceptual confusions [14].
Therefore, it is essential to create a practical LCC model based on the reliable input.
The LCC modeling is the precondition and base for calculating and analyzing the LCC
costs. The success of a project mostly depends on the accurate analysis of the initial
prediction costs from the phases of design covering construction costs, operating costs
and operation and maintenance costs [15]. Studies reported in Dowlatshahi and by other
researchers suggest that the design of a product influences between 70% and 85% of the
LCC [16]. Designers can substantially reduce the LCC of a product by taking proper
consideration to life cycle impact of their design solutions [17]. While such a LCC
analysis requires the experience for different systems and a significant base of
performance data. We adopt the breakdown method to analyze and calculate the LCC,

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so the primary work is to establish the LCC breakdown structure. According to IEC
60300-3-3, the LCC breakdown structure is illustrated in Figure 1.

Figure 1. LCC Breakdown Element Concept

2.1. LCC Breakdown Structure for Rolling Stocks

The product structure tree (PST) is used to show the hierarchical relations between product
and its systems, parts. The PST shows the hierarchical relations in both function and
installation relations between parts and systems.
Accordingly, the structure of the rolling stocks can also be breakdown in the product
structure tree format. The root node of the PST for rolling stocks is marked with the
identification code “0”. Based on the structure features and function of rolling stocks, it can
be breakdown into secondary layer with car body, gangway, bogies, propulsion, drive, brake,
TCMS, PIS, passenger doors, cab doors, detrainment device, HVAC and so on systems. Each
system can be marked with the secondary layer with identification code “1”, “2”, “3” and so
on. Each system can also be subsequently breakdown into the third layer structure. In this
layer, the parts will be detailed down to the work of minimum repairable units (MRU) in
principle. Take passenger door system as an example, it can be breakdown into threaded rod
clean and grease, sealing rubber replace, threaded rod replace and so on. Then each
maintenance work can be allocated with one specific identification code. The work for
threaded rod clean and grease, sealing rubber replace, threaded rod replace is subsequently
marked with the identification code “1-1”, “1-2” and “1-3”. The PST modeling of the rolling
stocks is illustrated in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Product Structure Tree

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If we consider it from the point view of maintenance and repair, the systems and parts can
be divided into free maintenance systems/parts and maintenance systems/parts. For example,
car body, bogie frame, window panes are contractual with the same life span of the rolling
stocks, so they shall be designed and produced free of maintenance within the life span of the
rolling stocks. For this kind of parts, it will not appear in the PST of rolling stocks for LCC
prediction. Other systems/parts may get aged, worn out, damaged or performance
degradation, therefore, maintenance, repair or replace work is necessary.

2.2. Phase of Life Cycle

The life cycle of normal production can be divided into 6 phases: concept and definition,
design and development; production; installation; operation and maintenance; disposal. The
LCC predication, analysis and evaluation can be carried out in different phase according to
different rolling stocks life cycle phase and different costs elements. The LCC for the
maintenance phase depends on the overall aim: (1) Contractual requirements; (2) To
minimize the maintenance costs; (3) Promote the maintenance efficiency of the maintenance
and repair; (4) Reasonable design for minimizing the materials costs. The work of
maintenance and repair phase is the most complicated. On one hand, the train sets shall be
operated normally, on the other hand, various maintenances and repair work is required.
Therefore, the maintenance and repair work should be detailed. For calculation and compare
easy purpose, the LCC of rolling stocks is calculated based on one year interval. The
predicated life span is about 30 years to 35 years for rolling stocks. During this period,
several maintenances and overhauls are required.

3. LCC Breakdown for Maintenance Phase

The costs items breakdown is an important task. The procedure is to breakdown the LCC
to several main costs units to establish main costs model. And then breakdown the main costs
units into several sub costs units. The sub costs units can be subsequently breakdown to the
next level until the sub costs units is the minimum evaluable unit. All the sub costs units can
be combined to the LCC model.
The LCC costs for rolling stocks can be divided into several phase: concept and definition
phase costs; design and development phase costs; production phase costs; installation phase
costs; operation and maintenance phase costs; disposal phase costs.

3.1. Full LCC Model for Rolling Stocks

The full LCC for rolling stocks can be divided into the following items according to
different phase:
LCC = CCD + CDD + CP + CI + COM + CD (1)
LCC – life cycle costs
CCD – concept and definition phase costs
CDD – design and development phase costs
CP – production phase costs
CI – installation phase costs
COM – operation and maintenance phase costs
CD – disposal phase costs

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3.2. LCC Model for Operation and Maintenance Phase Costs

The LCC model for operation and maintenance phase costs can be breakdown to operation
phase costs and maintenance costs.
COM= CO + CM (2)
CO – operation costs
CM – maintenance costs
Operation and maintenance phase costs takes large portion of rolling stocks full LCC, and
maintenance costs is the most complicated item within it. Maintenance is commonly divided
into preventive maintenance (scheduled, on-condition and predictive) and corrective
maintenance [18]. Therefore, maintenance costs can be split into preventive repair costs and
corrective maintenance costs. According to regular rolling stocks maintenance stipulation,
preventive repair costs include regular repair costs and overhaul costs. Because overhaul
takes long time, covers most of the parts, so the costs are very high. Therefore, we set it as
independently as important costs during modeling the rolling stocks LCC.
CM = CMC + CMP + CMO （3）
CMC – corrective maintenance costs
CMP – preventive maintenance costs
CMO – overhaul costs
The costs composition of preventive maintenance costs, corrective maintenance costs is the
same, so the model can be illustrated as following (taking preventive maintenance costs as an
example)
CMC = CMCL + CMCF + CMCC + CMCS （4）
CMCL – labor costs
CMCF – materials costs
CMO – overhaul costs
CMCC – costs for contract suppliers’ service
CMCS – software maintenance costs
The employment costs could be split into three major sub items: Recruitment costs,
additional production costs and training costs [19]. The costs for contract suppliers’ service
and software maintenance only have labor costs, so we simplify this model putting them in
the labor costs CMCL.

4. VBA Software Development

4.1. Concept Design of the VBA Software
4.1.1. General Description for VBA Software in Excel: Both VBA and VB (visual basic)
are object-oriented, visualization and event-driven programming advanced language. VBA is
a macro programming language under VB framework. Compared to VB, VBA is applicable
to various application programs in Microsoft Office. Via VBA program, the users can freely
access the text with Microsoft Office format. Furthermore, the operation can realize
automation, universality and interaction [20]. In this paper, it is integrated in Excel software
with excel function and suitable for dealing with mass data.

4.1.2. Structure of the VBA Software: In order to realize different function, the LCC
predication software for rolling stocks’ maintenance phase is developed with the following 5
function model: Basic information management model, data input model, maintenance
materials costs prediction model, maintenance labor hours prediction model and user guide
model.

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1) Basic information management model

The basic information management model includes the general information for the project
and the rolling stocks. For example, project name, service lifespan, rolling stocks’
configuration, failure category, annual operation distance and so on. During the computing,
the evaluation time span should be considered first [21]. The basic information is the input for
the final LCC calculation. It is finalized after the very preliminary conceptual design phase.
Therefore, it can be filled by the LCC engineer only. After input, this model shall lock the
information and the area for any unintended change by any suppliers or engineers in the
following procedure: go to Tools of Excel menu, Protection, Protect the Sheet and select all
of the options with a check mark.
2) Data input model
The LCC of rolling stocks’ maintenance phase target shall be fulfilled with the
precondition of ensuring the performance of rolling stocks meet the requirements of RAMS.
The relevant data from observation of rolling stocks operational reliability can be applied
successfully for optimization of conditions of the maintenance [22]. The accuracy of LCC
model depends on the reality of simulation model and data for the calculation. In order to
make the information collection more practical, effective, and efficient, there needs to be in
place information collection system that makes it possible to integrate information from
various sources and different product life cycle phases [23]. The function of this model is
inputting the data for maintenance the rolling stocks. All input data is inherited from the
history data of similar system or from FTA (Fault Tree Analysis), FMECA (Failure Mode,
Effects and Criticality Analysis), CCA (Cause Consequence Analysis) FBDA (Failure Block
Diagram Analysis), and HAZOP (Hazardous Operability Analysis). The data includes
component name, type of maintenance, task description, elapsed time hours, quantity of parts
required for maintenance, price for repairing or replacing, frequency of maintenance and so
on. All information related to a certain system rather than the project or the rolling stocks’
characteristics are input in data input model only. This model also integrates an automatically
error check function which can identify the input error timely.
3) Maintenance materials costs prediction model
The maintenance materials costs prediction model is one of the output models. Since a part
can be either repaired or replaced at different costs, the supplier has to estimate the
probability for a part to be repaired and replaced based on design knowledge and in service
experience. The suppliers also have to include a replacement price and/or a repair price.
Based on the input data in the input model, the maintenance materials costs is automatically
calculated and showed in this model. It includes the following information: preventive
maintenance costs, overhaul costs and corrective maintenance costs for each year in the
lifespan of the rolling stocks. It can also automatically accumulate the materials costs for
defined years. The costs of the unscheduled maintenance materials needed during the
warranty period is not included in the sheet calculation results since it’s costs is included in
the rolling stocks’ warranty already.
4) Maintenance labor hours prediction model
The structure of the maintenance labor hour prediction model is the same with that of
maintenance materials costs prediction model. The maintenance labor hours are automatically
calculated and showed in this model. It includes the following information: preventive
maintenance labor hours, overhaul labor hours and corrective maintenance labor hours for
each year in the lifespan of the rolling stocks. It can also automatically accumulate the labor
hours for defined years.
5) User guide model

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This model can provide the support and help for the users, including the overview and
operation procedure of the software. Based on the software’s requirements concept, the
workflow brief chart is showed in Figure 3.

Figure 3. Workflow for LCC Predictor

4.2. Software Detail Design

The excel spreadsheet includes four worksheets, which is project description, input sheet,
annual materials costs and annual labour hours separately. Correspondingly, each worksheet
relates to a software model. The VBA program editor can be accessed by the following path
in Excel 2003: select Tools menu in excel, then click Macro, finally click Visual Basic Editor,
or just press shortcut keys Alt + F11. Input the name of the macro in the pop-up window.
Variable data can be deemed as a single event or a series of smaller event subsets based on
the grouping information. In order to ensure the required data is correctly input in the input
sheet, a Wizard is developed to help the users. The interface of the wizard is showed in Figure
4.

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Figure 4. Interface of Inputting Wizard

In order to create the wizard, the first step is to create user windows which include a series
of command buttons, right-click the command button, and then click View Code on the
shortcut menu. Visual Basic Editor is activated. Enter the code between the Private Sub
CommandButton1 statement and the End Sub statement to create the required command for
each command buttons. The wizard window can be disappear in the display and remove from
the memory with the Unload method after finish data inputting. After being unloaded, all the
relevant memory is withdrew, so the user cannot communicate with the window anymore.
One section of the program for SAVE function is showed below:

Private Sub SaveWizard_Click()

Dim mes As Integer
If Checkdata Then
Writedata
Mes = MsgBox("Save finished", vbOKOnly, "Save confirmation")
If Not inline Then
InputLine = InputLine + 1
Linenumber.Caption = InputLine - 12
Else
WizNewLine
ActiveWorkbook.Sheets("Input Sheet").Cells(inputLine, "A") = Empty
Unload InputWizard
End If
Else
Mes = MsgBox("Error in the data, change the data in red and try saving again",
vbOKOnly, "Unable to save, error in data")z
End If
End Sub

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5. Practical Application
To prepare a LCC Analysis we refer to reports such as Preliminary Maintenance Analysis,
Preliminary Maintenance Plan, Preliminary Reliability Analysis and the Subdivided
Equipment List from each supplier, which presents the basic data for LCC costs information
per system.
What if some parts are impacted by both normal preventive maintenance and overhaul?
Here is an example below: A filter is replaced on a HVAC every two month and the HVAC
overhaul is done every 5 years. During the HVAC overhaul, the filter will also be replaced.
How can the filter replacement be cancelled at the 5 years period since it is already done as
part of the overhaul? On the first line, the filter is replaced every two month. On the second
line, the HVAC is replaced in 5 years overhaul and on the third line a filter change with a
frequency of 5 years and a negative man-hour and negative parts costs (Table 1). This will
cancel the filter change at 5 years that is included in the second line already.
Table 1. A Maintenance Example

Component Level of maint(R) Crew size(U) Hours(V + W) Mat. Costs (AH)Freq(AV)

Filter change 1 1 0.5 80 RMB 2 month
HVAC Overhaul 1 1 10 40000 RMB 5 years
Filter adjustment 1 1 -0.5 -80 RMB 5 years

The prediction of the vehicle life cycle costs was created according to the suggested
maintenance requirement of the vehicle and system device, and the main maintenance content
of each procedure. Take Shanghai Metro Line 13 for example, all the relevant parameters for
this project is as following:
 Annual running distance 125,000 km per 6-cars configuration train
 Annual operation time 6,935 hours
 Annual power-on time 8,760 hours
 Lifetime 30 years
 Round trip 80 km
 Man-hours rate 40 RMB/hour/man
 Electric costs 0.8 RMB/kilowatt-hour
This system can calculate the LCC system by system, take the passenger door system as an
example, we get all the input data such as components’ name, replace price, maintenance
frequency and so on from a door supplier and confirmed by the responsible engineer. For
details of the original input data for door system, please refer to Table 2. All the data is input
into the Input Sheet via the Input Wizard line by line. After input, we click the calculate
button in the upper side, the maintenance materials costs and Maintenance labor hours is
automatically given in the relevant excel sheets, which is 469110 RMB and 387.54 hours
separately in the first ten years. When all the information input, the following LCC prediction
result was obtained for each system separately in Table 3.

Table 2. Door System Maintenance Data

Scheduled

Descriptio
Breakdow

measurem
Overhaul(
Unschedu
Compone

size

Frequenc

Frequenc
y Unit of
Mainten.

Price per
led(UM)
structure

Replace
Replace

(RMB)
(SM)

piece
Task
code

OH)

ent
nts

%
n

y
crew

1-1 Electric 1 Safety 1 3 Month

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driven inspecti
passenger on
door
Electric
driven
passenger Inspect
1-2 door 1 ion 1 1 Years
Clean
Threaded and
1-3 rod 1 grease 1 1 Years
Clean
upper rail and
1-4 cpl. 1 grease 1 1 Years
Bearing Replac
1-5 wheel cpl. 1 e 1 90 100% 10 Years
Anti-jiggle Replac
1-6 cpl. 1 e 1 78 100% 10 Years
Sealing Replac
1-7 rubber 1 e 1 416.1 100% 5 Years
Clean
Sealing and
1-8 rubber 1 grease 1 2 Years
Finger Clean
protection and
1-9 rubber 1 grease 1 2 Years
Finger
protection Replac 326.0
1-10 rubber 1 e 1 4 100% 5 Years
Release
door switch Replac
1-11 cpl. 1 e 1 388.8 100% 15 Years
Isolated
door switch Replac 337.0
1-12 cpl. 1 e 1 9 100% 15 Years
Door
position Replac 259.6
1-13 switch cpl. 1 e 1 4 100% 5 Years
Replac 392.7
1-14 Nuts cpl. 1 e 1 2 100% 10 Years
Replac
1-15 Damper 1 e 1 18.34 100% 10 Years
Stainless
steel wire
for opening Replac
1-16 doors 1 e 1 65.46 100% 5 Years
Threaded Replac
1-17 rod 1 e 2 1061 100% 0.5 Years
1-18 Finger 1 Replac 2 537.9 100% 0.5 Years

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protection e 7
rubber
Sealing Replac 686.5
1-19 rubber 1 e 2 7 100% 0.3 Years
Emergency
egress Replac 560.5
1-20 device 1 e 1 4 100% 0.2 Years
Replac
1-21 Door plate 1 e 2 6226 100% 0.5 Years
Replac 0.5
1-22 Motor 1 e 1 7286 100% Years
Bearing Replac 0.5
1-23 wheel cpl. 1 e 2 148.5 100% Years
Anti-jiggle Replac 0.5
1-24 cpl. 1 e 2 128.7 100% Years
Replac 0.5
1-25 Nuts cpl. 1 e 2 648 100% Years
Replac
1-26 Damper 1 e 1 30.27 100% 0.1 Years
Stainless
steel wire
for opening Replac 108.0
1-27 doors 1 e 1 1 100% 0.2 Years
upper rail Replac
1-28 cpl. 1 e 1 1349 100% 0.2 Years
Release Replac
1-29 wheel cpl. 1 e 1 1332 100% 0.5 Years
Stainless
steel wire
for opening Replac 138.6
1-30 doors 1 e 1 8 100% 0.5 Years
Bracket for Replac 106.2
1-31 threaded rod 1 e 1 1 100% 0.5 Years
Replac
1-32 EDCU 1 e 1 14355 100% 0.2 Years

Table 3. Materials and Persons Costs of Different Systems

Semi-permanent
Systems Gangway Automatic couplers
couplers
Interval 5 years 10 years 5 years 10 years 5 years 10 years
Man hours
3.64 8364 57.83 69.04 37.29 42.79
[h]
Materials
0 923070 172100 208000 80100 97000
costs [RMB]
Materials
and persons 137.2 923070 172100 208000 81505.8 98613.2
costs [RMB]

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Systems TCMS PIS Cab door

Interval 5 years 10 years 5 years 10 years 5 years 10 years
Man hours
8.9 12.9 451.2 1027.2 3.64 3.64
[h]
Materials
34000 34000 565780 898900 1430 1430
costs [RMB]
Materials
and persons 34000 334000 582790.2 937625.4 1567.2 1567.2
costs [RMB]
Systems Propulsion Drive Detrainment device
Interval 5 years 10 years 5 years 10 years 5 years 10 years
Man hours
19.76 59.6 99 403 456 456
[h]
Materials
46880 244880 84000 113240 13600 13600
costs [RMB]
Materials
and persons 47625 247126.9 87732.3 128433.1 30014.6 30014.6
costs [RMB]
Systems Brake Passenger door HVAC
Interval 5 years 10 years 5 years 10 years 5 years 10 years
Man hours
617.34 617.34 114.54 387.54 167.64 361.84
[h]
Materials
357830 357830 191640 469110 192627.2 1174048
costs [RMB]
Materials
and persons 381103.7 381103.7 195958.2 483833.4 198947.2 1187689
costs [RMB]

6. Conclusion
The highest priority is to provide the costs at the decision-making and design phases
for evaluation [24]. LCC predictor is proved to be user-friendly software incorporated
in Microsoft Excel for the maintenance phase LCC prediction for rolling stocks. It was
developed with VBA program language and run under Microsoft Excel version 2003 or
later. First of all, the software can standardize the input for all the suppliers. According
to the users’ guide and input wizard, the data input can be preliminary analyzed to make
it uniform and meet the requirements. Secondly, LCC predictor can be easily be
modified to suit for users’ purpose because it is programmed with easy VBA language.
Finally, the data input and processing can be performed directly within Excel
spreadsheet without the need for the critical data format required by most other
available programs. All the above features make LCC predictor suitable prediction
software for rolling stocks’ LCC prediction.

Acknowledgements
The authors gratefully acknowledge Wei Zhao form China Southern Locomotive and
Rolling Stocks Industry Group for providing the data for systems and comments for the
paper, and Dr. Weiguo Ding for VBA program support.

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Authors

Jiamin Fang, She received her M.Sc. in Accounting (2008) from

University. Now she is associate professor of accounting in Jilin
Business and Technology College, Changchun China. Since 2012 he is
rector of University. Her current research interests include different
aspects of Costs Accounting, Regional Economics, Industry Clusters
and Accounting Theory and Practice.

Lin Ji, He received his M.Sc. in Economics (2010) and PhD in

Economics (2014). Now he is Economics Lecturer at Finance School,
Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics. His current research
interests include Economics and Finance.

Copyright ⓒ 2015 SERSC 251

International Journal of Smart Home
Vol. 9, No. 3 (2015)

252 Copyright ⓒ 2015 SERSC