The

2022
EPA Automotive
Trends Report
Greenhouse Gas Emissions,
Fuel Economy, and
Technology since 1975

Executive Summary

ft
~
.,.,
EA~ United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
EPA-420-S-22-001 December 2022
This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions, positions, or validation of
compliance data reported to EPA by manufacturers. It is intended to present technical analysis of issues
using data that are currently available and that may be subject to change. Historic data have been
adjusted, when appropriate, to reflect the result of compliance investigations by EPA or any other
corrections necessary to maintain data integrity.

The purpose of the release of such reports is to facilitate the exchange of technical information and to
inform the public of technical developments. This edition of the report supersedes all previous versions.
Executive Summary
This annual report is part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) commitment
to provide the public with information about new light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions, fuel economy, technology data, and auto manufacturers’ performance in meet-
ing the agency’s GHG emissions standards.

EPA has collected data on every new light-duty vehicle model sold in the United States since
1975, either from testing performed by EPA at the National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions
Laboratory in Ann Arbor, Michigan, or directly from manufacturers using official EPA test
procedures. These data are collected to support several important national programs,
including EPA criteria pollutant and GHG standards, the U.S. Department of Transportation’s
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) Corporate Average Fuel Economy
(CAFE) standards, and vehicle Fuel Economy and Environment labels. This expansive data
set allows EPA to provide a uniquely comprehensive analysis of the automotive industry
over the last 45 years.

The carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and fuel economy data in this report fall into one of
two categories. The first is compliance data, which are measured using laboratory tests
required by law for CAFE and adopted by EPA for GHG compliance. The second is estimated
real-world data, which are measured using additional laboratory tests to capture a wider
range of operating conditions (including hot and cold weather, higher speeds, and faster
accelerations) encountered by an average driver. This report shows real-world data, except
for discussions specific to GHG compliance starting on page ES-9 in this summary and
Section 5 of the report.

All data in this report for model years 1975 through 2021 are final and based on official
data submitted to EPA and NHTSA as part of the regulatory process. In some cases, this
report will show data for model year 2022, which are preliminary and based on data
provided to EPA by manufacturers prior to the model year, including projected production
volumes. Given the impacts of worldwide supply chain issues and their associated impacts
on the automobile industry, the projected model year 2022 data may change significantly
before being finalized.

This report reflects the current light-duty GHG and fuel economy regulations as finalized
by EPA and NHTSA, including updated standards through model year 2026. Any applicable
regulatory changes finalized by EPA and NHTSA will be included in future versions of this
report. To download the full report, or to explore the data using EPA’s interactive data
tools, visit the report website at www.epa.gov/automotive-trends.

ES-1
New vehicle estimated real-world CO2 emissions are at
a record low and fuel economy remains at a record high
In model year 2021, the average Figure ES-1. Estimated Real-World Fuel
estimated real-world CO2 emission Economy and CO2 Emissions
rate for all new vehicles fell by 2 g/mi
to 347 g/mi, the lowest ever measured.

Real-World CO2 Emissions (g/mi)

Real-world fuel economy remained at
600
a record high 25.4 mpg.

Since model year 2004, CO2 emissions 500 347g / mi

MY 2021
have decreased 25%, or 114 g/mi, and
fuel economy has increased 32%, or 400
6.1 mpg. Over that time, CO2 emissions
have improved in fourteen of seventeen •
years. The trends in CO2 emissions and
fuel economy since 1975 are shown in •
Figure ES-1.
Real-World Fuel Economy (MPG)

24

Preliminary data suggest that CO2

emissions and fuel economy in model 20
25.4 MPG
MY 2021
year 2022 will improve from the levels
achieved in 2021. These data are shown
in Figure ES-1 as a dot because the values 16

are based on manufacturer projections

rather than final data.
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025
Model Year

All vehicle types are at record low CO2 emissions;

however, market shifts away from cars and towards
sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and pickups have offset
some of the fleetwide benefits
In this report, vehicles are disaggregated into five vehicle types: sedan/wagon, car SUV,
truck SUV, pickup truck, and minivan/van. The distinction between car and truck SUVs is
based on regulatory definitions where SUVs that are 4WD or above a weight threshold
(6,000 pounds gross vehicle weight) are generally regulated as trucks and classified at truck
SUVs for this report. The remaining 2WD SUVs are subject to car standards and classified as
car SUVs. All five vehicle types are at record high fuel economy and record low CO2

ES-2
 emissions in model year 2021. Minivan/Vans increased fuel economy by 3.9 mpg, car SUVs
increased by 2.6 mpg, sedan/wagons increased by 0.5 mpg, truck SUVs increased by 0.3
mpg, and pickups increased by 0.1 mpg.

The overall new vehicle market continues to move away from the sedan/wagon vehicle
type towards a combination of truck SUVs, pickups, and car SUVs. In model year 2021,
sedans and wagons fell to 26% of the market, well below the 50% market share they held
as recently as model year 2013, and far below the 80% market share they held in 1975.
Conversely, truck SUVs reached a record 45% of the market in model year 2021, and pickups
increased to 16% market share. The trend away from sedan/wagons, which remain the
vehicle type with the highest fuel economy and lowest CO2 emissions, and towards vehicle
types with lower fuel economy and higher CO2 emissions has offset some of the fleetwide
benefits that otherwise would have been achieved from the improvements within each
vehicle type.

Figure ES-2. Production Share and Fuel Economy by Vehicle Type

35
100% 30
25 32.2 Sedan
20
15
Wagon

Cars
10
35
Sedan / Wagon 30
Cars

75%
Production Share

25 31.0
Car
Real-World MPG

20 SUV
15
10
35
Car SUV 30
50% 25
Truck
20
15 24.1 SUV
10
Trucks

35
Truck SUV 30

Trucks
25
25% 20 Minivan
27.3
Minivan / Van 15 Van
10
35
Pickup 30
25
0% 20 Pickup
15
10 19.3
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025

Model Year Model Year

Average new vehicle fuel economy, horsepower,

weight, and footprint are all at record highs
Overall vehicle trends are influenced both by vehicle technology and design, and by the
changes in the distribution of vehicles being produced. For a specific vehicle, increased
weight or horsepower is likely to result in higher CO2 emissions and lower fuel economy,

ES-3
all else being equal. Larger vehicles, in this case measured by footprint or the area enclosed
by the four tires, also tend to have higher CO2 emissions and lower fuel economy. Footprint
is also the basis for determining regulatory standards under the GHG and CAFE regulations.
Electric vehicles produce zero tailpipe emissions; however, weight, horsepower, and vehicle
size can still impact the vehicle fuel economy (as measured in miles per gallon of gasoline
equivalent).

In the two decades prior to 2004, Figure ES-3. Percent Change in Real-World Fuel
technology innovation and mar- Economy, Horsepower, Weight, and Footprint
ket trends generally resulted
in increased vehicle power and
weight (due to increasing vehicle
100% ••
size and content) while aver-
age new vehicle fuel economy 75% Real-World Fuel Economy
steadily decreased and CO2
Change Since 1975

emissions correspondingly in- 50%

creased. Since model year 2004,
the combination of technology
25% Horsepower
innovation and market trends
have resulted in average new
vehicle fuel economy increas- 0%
•
ing 32%, horsepower increas- Weight
ing 20%, and weight increasing −25%
4%. Footprint has increased 5%
since EPA began tracking it in 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Change Since 2008

model year 2008. These metrics 10%

are all at record highs and are 0%
projected to increase again in
model year 2022, as shown in
−10%
~L~-----,---------~~ Footprint
----·
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
I

Model Year
Figure ES-3.

The changes within each of these metrics are due to the combination of design and technology
changes within each vehicle type, and the market shifts between vehicle types. For example,
overall new vehicle footprint has increased within each vehicle type since model year 2008,
but the average new vehicle footprint has increased more than the increase in any individual
vehicle type over that time span, due to market shifts towards larger vehicle types. Fuel econ-
omy has also increased in all vehicle types since model year 2008, however the market shift
towards less efficient vehicle types has offset some of the fleetwide fuel economy and CO2
emission benefits that otherwise would have been achieved through improving technology.

ES-4
Most manufacturers have improved CO2 emissions
and fuel economy over the last 5 years
Manufacturer trends over the last five years are shown in Figure ES-4. This span covers
the approximate length of a vehicle redesign cycle, and it is likely that most vehicles
have undergone design changes in this period, resulting in a more accurate depiction
of recent manufacturer trends than focusing on a single year. Changes over this time
period can be attributed to changes in both vehicle design and the significant change to
the mix of vehicle types produced, as shown in ES-2.

Over the last five years, seven of the fourteen largest manufacturers selling vehicles
in the U.S. decreased new vehicle estimated real-world CO2 emission rates. Tesla was
unchanged because their all-electric fleet produces no tailpipe CO2 emissions, and
Mercedes was also unchanged. Between model years 2016 and 2021, Kia achieved the
largest reduction in CO2 emissions, at 29 g/mi. Kia decreased emissions in all vehicle
types that they offer, and decreased overall emissions even as their truck SUV share
increased from 15% to 41%. Toyota achieved the second largest reduction in overall CO2
tailpipe emissions, at 28 g/mi, and BMW had the third largest reduction in overall CO2
tailpipe emissions at 10 g/mi. Toyota and BMW also achieved overall emission reductions
by improving all vehicle types, even as their truck SUV production share increased.

Five manufacturers increased new vehicle CO2 emission rates between model years
2016 and 2021. Mazda had the largest increase at 24 g/mi, due to increased CO2
emission rates within their sedan/wagon and car SUV vehicle types, along with a shift in
production from 33% to 61% truck SUVs. Volkswagen had the second largest increase at
18 g/mi, as a shift in production from 21% to 66% truck SUVs more than offset emission
reductions within each vehicle type. GM had the third largest increase at 17 g/mi, with
a production shift towards truck SUVs and pickups and an increase in pickup emission
rates more than offsetting emission improvements in all other vehicle types.

For model year 2021 alone, Tesla’s all-electric fleet had by far the lowest tailpipe CO2
emissions and highest fuel economy of all large manufacturers. Tesla was followed by
a close grouping of Subaru, Kia, Hyundai, Nissan, and Honda. Stellantis had the highest
new vehicle average CO2 emissions and lowest fuel economy of the large manufacturers
in model year 2021, followed by GM and Ford. Tesla also had the highest overall fuel
economy, followed by the close grouping of Subaru, Kia, Nissan, Hyundai, and Honda.

ES-5
Figure ES-4. Changes in Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy1 and CO2 Emissions for Large Manufacturers

Fuel Economy (MPG), 2016 − 2021 CO2 Emissions (g/mi), 2016 − 2021
96.8 123.9
Tesla
i--~~----------------1 t- - - ~ - ~
I
0

Subaru
60 80 100

28.1 ... 28.8

120

309
50

.... 317
100 150

Kia

Nissan

Hyundai
26.2

27.8 ...
.....
,

28.5 ~ 28.8
28.7

28.6
310
.
II(

311 318

309►310
338

Honda 28.2 ►28.5 312~315

Mazda 27.4 II( 29.6 301---► 324

Toyota

BMW

VW 24.7
25.0

25.4 25.8
-
~
►
- 27.1
,

26.5
327
339
~

. 349

334 ---l ►352

355

Mercedes
•
23.6 23.6 •
376 376

Ford 22.8 ►22.9 385◄389

GM 21.6 ....
22.4 397---►- 414

Stellantis 21.3 ~ 21.5 413 ► 417

All Manufacturers 24.7 ➔ 25.4 347 .... 359

20 24 28 32 300 350 400 450

Electric vehicles, including Tesla’s all-electric fleet, are measured in terms of miles per gallon of gasoline equivalent, or mpge.
1

ES-6
Manufacturers continue to use a wide array of
advanced technologies
Innovation in the automobile industry has led to a wide array of technology available to
manufacturers to achieve CO2 emissions, fuel economy, and performance goals. Figure
ES-5 illustrates manufacturer-specific technology usage for model year 2021, with larger
circles representing higher usage rates. The technologies in Figure ES-5 are all being
used by manufacturers to, in part, reduce CO2 emissions and increase fuel economy.
Each of the fourteen largest manufacturers have adopted several of these technologies
into their vehicles, with many manufacturers achieving very high penetrations of several
technologies. It is also clear that manufacturers’ strategies to develop and adopt new
technologies are unique and vary significantly. Each manufacturer is choosing technolo-
gies that best meet the design requirements of their vehicles, and in many cases, that
technology is changing quickly.

Engine technologies such as turbocharged engines (Turbo) and gasoline direct injection
(GDI) allow for more efficient engine design and operation. Cylinder deactivation (CD)
allows for use of only a portion of the engine when less power is needed, while stop/
start systems can turn off the engine entirely at idle to save fuel. Hybrid vehicles use a
larger battery to recapture braking energy and provide power when necessary, allow-
ing for a smaller, more efficiently operated engine. The hybrid category includes “full”
hybrid systems that can temporarily power the vehicle without engaging the engine and
smaller “mild” hybrid systems that cannot propel the vehicle on their own. Transmis-
sions that have more gear ratios, or speeds, allow the engine to more frequently
operate near peak efficiency. Two categories of advanced transmissions are shown
in Figure ES-5: transmission with seven or more discrete speeds (7+Gears), and continu-
ously variable transmissions (CVTs).

In model year 2021, hybrid vehicles reached a new high of 9% of all production. This
increase was mostly due to the growth of hybrids in the truck SUV and pickup vehicle
types. The combined category of electric vehicles (EVs), plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs),
and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) increased to 4% of production in model year 2021 and are
projected to reach 8% of production in model year 2022, due to expected growth in EV
production across the industry.

ES-7
Figure ES-5. Technology Share for Large Manufacturers, Model Year 2021

Tesla 100%

Subaru 22% 99% 95% 80% 0%

Kia

Nissan -

Hyundai
.
26%

5%

18%
47%

72%

44%
42%

87%

23%
45%

12%

46%
50%

21%
2%

4%
0%

1%

2%

Honda 53% 79% 25% 61% 38% 24% 7% 0%

Mazda

Toyota

BMW
27%

3%

99%
100%

0%

99%
•
45%

36% 38%

98%
19%

64%
22%

25%
2%

7%

VW 77% 94% 3% 90% 71% 20% 7%

Mercedes

Ford
94%

80%
100%

56%
•
8%

21% 2%
100%

92%
77%

83%
22%

5% 3%

GM

Stellantis

All Manufacturers
- .. •- •
37%

13%

33%
I
91%

10%

53%
I
54%

22%

17%
I
9%

1%

27%
I
74%

96%

57%
I
75%

45%

45%
I
•
15%

9%
I
1%

3%

4%
I

Turbo GDI CD CVT 7+Gears Non-hybrid Hybrid PHEV /

StopStart EV / FC

ES-8
All large manufacturers have achieved compliance with
the GHG standards through at least model year 2020
EPA’s GHG program is an averaging, banking, and trading (ABT) program. An ABT program
means that the standards may be met on a fleet average basis, manufacturers may earn
and bank credits to use later, and manufacturers may trade credits with other manufac-
turers. This provides manufacturers flexibility in meeting the standards while accounting
for vehicle design cycles, introduction rates of new technologies and emission improve-
ments, and evolving consumer preferences.

Within a model year, manufac- Figure ES-6. GHG Credit Balance for Large Manufacturers,
turers with average fleet emis- after Model Year 2021
sions lower than the standards
generate credits, and manufac- Stellantis

turers with average fleet emis- Honda

sions higher than the standards
Subaru
generate deficits. Any manufac-
GM
turer with a deficit at the end of
the model year has up to three Toyota

years to offset the deficit with BMW

credits earned in future model
Ford
years or purchased from

■
Tesla
another manufacturer.
Nissan
Twelve of the fourteen largest VW
manufacturers ended model
Mazda ■ Credits Expiring 2026
year 2021 with positive or zero ■ Credits Expiring 2025
Credits Expiring 2024
credit balances and are thus in Hyundai ■
■ Credits Expiring 2023
compliance for model year 2021 Kia ■ Deficits from 2021
■ Deficits from 2020

and all previous years of the Mercedes

■ Deficits from 2019
GHG program, as credits may
0 10 20 30 40 50
not be carried forward unless
GHG Credits (Tg of CO2)
deficits from all prior model
years have been resolved. Kia
and Mercedes have achieved compliance for model year 2020 and all previous years of the
GHG program but ended model year 2021 with deficits. However, because the GHG pro-
gram allows a manufacturer up to three years to offset a deficit, Kia and Mercedes have up
to three years before their model year 2021 deficits result in non-compliance or enforce-
ment actions from EPA.

ES-9
Total credits in Figure ES-6 are shown in teragrams (one million Megagrams), and account
for manufacturer performance compared to their standards, expected vehicle lifetime
miles driven, and the number of vehicles produced by each manufacturer, for all years of
the GHG program. The credits accumulated by each manufacturer will be carried forward
for use in future model years or until they expire. Credit expiration dates are based on the
model year in which they were earned.

Manufacturers used different combinations of technology

improvements and banked credits in model year 2021
Determining manufacturer compliance with EPA’s GHG program requires accounting for a
manufacturer’s credit balance over the life of the program. However, it is also useful to look
at manufacturer performance within the most recent model year. Figure ES-7 illustrates
the performance of individual large manufacturers in model year 2021 compared to their
effective overall standard, in terms of an average vehicle grams per mile emission rate. This
“snapshot” provides insight into how the large manufacturers performed against the stan-
dards in model year 2021, however it cannot be used to determine individual manufacturer
compliance status with the overall program.

Figure ES-7. CO2 Performance and Standards by Manufacturer, Model Year 2021

Below Standard Above Standard

271 269 265

228 231 232
224 223 214
203 214 211 205
200 203
Compliance GHG (g/mi)

209 264 208 224 228 237 218 216 216 292 243 295 282

−126

Standard
Performance
−200
a

s
da
a
da
la

ru

is
n
VW
W

M
rd

ai

de
Ki
ot

sa

nt
s

ba

G
nd
BM

az
on
Fo
Te

ce
la
is
To
Su

M
yu
H

el
N

er
St
H

ES-10
In model year 2021, Tesla, Ford, Honda, Toyota, and Subaru produced vehicles with GHG
emission performance below their overall standard. This result, combined with the fact that
these manufacturers all had a credit balance at the end of model year 2020, allowed Tesla,
Ford, Honda, Toyota, and Subaru to achieve compliance with the GHG program through
model year 2021 and bank or sell additional credits in model year 2021.

Nine of the fourteen large manufacturers ended model year 2021 with emission perfor-
mance above their overall standard. Seven of these manufacturers used banked or
purchased credits, along with technology improvements, to achieve compliance in model
year 2021. As noted above, Mercedes and Kia ended the model year with deficits, but the
program allows manufacturers up to three years to offset any deficits and remain in
compliance. These two manufacturers have up to three years to offset the deficits before
they result in non-compliance or enforcement actions from EPA.

The manufacturer performance values shown in Figure ES-7 are based on the average
new vehicle tailpipe emissions for each manufacturer and include various optional credits
available to manufacturers in model year 2021. One notable provision in the regulations is
an incentive multiplier that increases the credits each electric vehicle creates. The impact
of this incentive is particularly evident for Tesla, since Tesla produces only electric vehicles,
and is the reason for the negative performance value for Tesla shown in Figure ES-7.

The overall industry used credits to maintain

compliance, and there remains a large bank of
credits for future years
The industry ended model year 2021 with a credit balance of 131 Tg. This credit balance
is the result of the overall industry performance against the standards within each model
year, as well as the generation of early credits, credit expirations, and the sum of all credit
averaging, banking, and trading allowed by EPA’s GHG program. Under the GHG Program,
manufacturers were able to accrue “early credits,” before the GHG standards took effect in
model year 2012, for early deployment of efficient vehicles and technology. Overall, the
industry was able to accrue a large number of credits due to this provision, although some
of these credits had restrictions on their use, and all credits have regulatory expiration
dates. In model years 2012 through 2014, manufacturers continued to generate credits, as
the industry GHG performance was below the industry-wide average standard. At the end
of model year 2014, unused early credits generated from model year 2009 expired, which
reduced the overall credit balance. In model year 2015, the industry again generated cred-
its, however from model year 2016-2021 the industry GHG performance has been above
the standard, resulting in net withdrawals from the bank of credits to maintain compliance.

ES-11
Figure ES-8. Industry Performance and Standards, and Overall Credit Balance

Standard
300 299 Performance
292
287
Compliance GHG (g/mi)

287

280 278
274
273
271
267
262
260 263
258 253 253

252 244
246 239
240
239 238

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

400 Credit or Deficit

Credit
43 Deficit
350
42
GHG Credits (Tg of CO2)

25 −28
300
33 −16
-76 −3 −23
250 234 −17
Expiration of unused
2009 credits −3
200

150 131
Expiration of unused -81
100 2010-2016 credits

50

Early 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Carry
Credits to 2022
Model Year
(2009-2011)

In addition, unused credits generated in model years 2010-2016 expired at the end of
model year 2021, which further drew down the overall industry credit balance.

In model year 2021, the industry achieved an overall GHG performance of 239 g/mi, while
the standard fell from 239 g/mi to 238 g/mi. The gap between the standard and GHG
performance decreased from 6 g/mi in model year 2020 to 1 g/mi in model year 2021.

ES-12
Overall, manufacturers drew down the industry-wide total credit bank by about 3 Tg, which
was about 1% of the total available credit balance (before credits expired at the end of the
model year). The overall industry emerged from model year 2021 with a bank of 131 Tg of
GHG credits available for future use, as seen in Figure ES-8.

The credits available at the end of model year 2021 will expire according to the schedule
defined by the GHG Program and detailed in Section 5 of this report. The next group of
credits to expire will do so at the end of model year 2023. An active credit market has
allowed manufacturers to purchase credits to demonstrate compliance, with nine manu-
facturers selling credits, thirteen manufacturers purchasing credits, and approximately 100
credit trades since 2012. As of October 31, 2022, about 169 Tg of credits have been traded
between manufacturers.

The automobile industry continues to innovate,

improve, and meet the GHG standards
The analysis here is a snapshot of the data collected by EPA in support of several important
regulatory programs and is presented with the intent of providing as much transparency
to the public as possible. The data show the change and innovation in the industry since
model year 1975, and the manufacturers’ performance under EPA’s GHG standards.

To download the full report, or to explore the data using EPA’s interactive data tools, visit
the report webpage at www.epa.gov/automotive-trends.

ES-13