36
STRATEGIC POWER PLAY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN
AND PAKISTAN
Tanweer Shahid*
Abstract
Indian Ocean is in limelight due to trade, connectivity, regional conflicts and tug of
competition for dominance. Corresponding rising interest, naval competition, presence
of world’s great and extra-regional powers, terrorism, and opposing states, make this
ocean a pivotal strategic theatre. Being a strategic fulcrum, the US, China and India
are key contenders. The US, having India as its strategic ally, is employing its counter-
balancing strategy against China. China envisions ‘Common future Common growth’
policy through its Belt and Road Initiative and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. The US
Indo-Pacific Strategy succeeds the Asia-Pacific rebalance. Iran’s strategic interests in
the Indian Ocean is its strategic compulsion to combat its “geopolitical isolation” via
energy diplomacy. The European Union views the strategic and political developments
in the Indian Ocean from the side-lobes. Pakistan geographically has superior strategic
orientation being at the gateway of energy highways and enjoys great geo-strategic
superiority, especially in view of China’s BRI and its flagship CPEC. This qualitative
causal research, employing deductive reasoning for analysis & inferences, studies the
Indian Ocean powerplay and tug of influence while drawing strategic
recommendations for Pakistan.
Keywords: Geopolitics, Foreign Policy, Strategic Balance, Maritime Security.
Introduction
S ince ages, doctrinal principle of freedom-at-sea had steered use of oceans. This
also became the cardinal principle of management, exploration and jurisdiction
over oceans, resulting in the United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea-1982
(UNCLOS-82). The UNCLOS roots in the belief that “Oceans are the common
heritage of mankind.” 1 However, with the evolution of human societies from varying
genesis of nations, and their expanding socio-economic and security imperatives led
to defining their politico-strategic interests in the oceans that cover around 140
million square miles and 72% of the globe;2 thus, giving birth to both cooperation
and competition. These conflicting and opposing strategic interests in the seas are
based on combination of number of reasons spanning from usage of oceans, their
*Tanweer Shahid is a PhD scholar at Bahria University, Islamabad.
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Strategic Power Play in the Indian Ocean and Pakistan 37
limits of jurisdiction, longing for dominance, resources exploration, navigation far
from home, political objectives, economic interests, maritime security, military use
of oceans – and so on.
Though UNCLOS has 138 States signatories,3 including the European Union
(EU), interestingly not the United States (US), sea conflicts still exist and strike
international peace and stability, Wilsonian principles 4 and Chapter VII of the UN
Charter.5 Be it foreign policy where oceans are defined from grand-strategic lens, or
operational-strategic perspective of maritime doctrines, the strategists and
policymakers keep focusing how oceans serve their national interests. From the
Phoenician6 boats including galleys of the Greek and Roman periods in 1100 BC till
modern-day blue-water fleets, all nation-states strategize their interests in the
oceans vis-à-vis one’s strategic ambitions. Such as the US with its global interests,
frame its geo-strategic interests in its policies and security strategies worldwide,
whereas a smaller state operating brown water navy only aim safeguarding its
maritime zones.7
Alfred T. Mahan, US maritime strategist, views that history of sea power
exhibits its undeniable and great influence on power of the nation-states; and,
asserts that the disputes and economic competition on oceans pre-dominatingly
resulted in the military wrestles8; thus, ‘the control of the sea is and has been a great
factor in the history of the world.’9 Throughout history, one can identify that global
politics have been hopping from one ocean to other. And Mahanian philosophy is
being asserted which emphasises, and rightly so, that none but the navies have
emerged to be the foremost protagonists for following vital missions:10
• First, a nation-state asserts its politico-strategic influence overseas.
• Second, one projects its military power, as means of deterrence or
compliance.
• Third, to defend maritime borders against any aggression, and support
forces ashore as per overall military strategy of a country.
• Fourth, it’s a navy and other para-naval outfits such as coastguard
organisations or maritime security agencies a state has its disposal to
safeguard its maritime interests, wherever and whatsoever are
identified in the national strategic designs.
• Fifth, to protect Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) including
economic and trade interests, wherein energy need remains foremost of
all as it sparks and sustains one’s national socio-economic and
industrial paraphernalia.
NDU Journal 2021 [36-47]
38 Tanweer Shahid
• Sixth, a state may employ a navy in undertaking benign operations such
as Humanitarian Assistance & Disaster Relief (HA&DR) operations; and
combating maritime law enforcement functions against non-traditional
threats.
• Seventh, a state essentially employs its navy to be one of the premier
tools of nation’s diplomacy.
Indian Ocean - Sea of Future
The Indian Ocean is boon and a bane (at least today); volatile and rich.
Admiral (Retd) James Starvidis US Navy, terms the Pacific Ocean as ‘the Mother of
Oceans’; the Atlantic Ocean as ‘the Cradle of Colonisation’; the Mediterranean Sea
‘where War at Sea began’; and, the Indian Ocean as ‘the Future Sea’.11 It provides
central trade routes as artery of global trade;12 and it connects as the hub of world’s
energy in the Middle East. Number of reasons make the Indian Ocean the hottest
and the most important one. It has strategic chokepoints i.e., Strait of Hormuz, Bab-
ul-Mandeb, Horn of Africa, Suez Canal through the Red Sea and Strait of Malacca –
through which mammoth global trade and crude hydrocarbons sail worldwide. 13
Thus, correspondingly rise strategic and maritime security challenges which
depends on ‘principal variables’ comprising naval competition, presence of world’s
great and extra-regional powers, terrorism, inter-state rivalry and conflicts.14 Also,
there exist number of non-traditional security challenges such as piracy, drug-
trafficking, smuggling, marine pollution, illegal fishing and illegal immigration.15
Having 65% of world’s known oil reserves and 35% of gas, the Indian Ocean is the
“epicentre of maritime economy and military presence.” 16 The most horrifying and
biggest threats to peace and stability of the ocean entail its militarisation,
unprecedented advancements in military technology and corresponding arms race,
nuclear status of players (the US, China, India, Pakistan, EU country France, and to
an extent Russia) present in the region and power projections by non-Indian Ocean
nations.17 And this trend seems to intensify in the coming years.
Politically, this third largest ocean is a pivotal theatre of strategic contest
and military dominance. And the only military instrument to project and exercise
power on oceans, at own frontiers and those of potential rivals, is a robust navy.
Inherent flexibility, sustenance, reach, poise, endurance and flexibility of operation
with navies make them best strategic and operational force for defence of own
territory and accomplish the extended objectives. Distinct form other forces, navies’
peacetime operational areas are same as of their wartime deployments. It is for this
reason that all the major global players of international politics are growing,
maintaining, operating and primarily investing on one force - navy.
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Strategic Power Play in the Indian Ocean and Pakistan 39
Major players in the region, China, France, Russia, United Kingdom and
United States are operating blue water navies having global reach. In addition, there
are blue-water aspirants Australia and India with limited regional reach. The oceans,
in absolute terms, act as critical enablers to create riches, project power, safeguard
economic and security interests and influence international politics in war or peace.18
The US with the largest navy maintain its presence in almost every ocean. The Indian
Ocean houses Central Fleet, Combined Task Force 150 against terrorism, and
Combined Task Force 151 against piracy. The EU has its presence as EU-NAVFOR.
China undertakes anti-piracy and random patrols. India consistently pursues its
Mission-Based Deployments (MBDs) and maritime security operations. Iran
attempts its maritime influence through its navy and its coast guard; and Pakistan is
not only an active participant of US-led CTFs but also undertakes Regional Maritime
Security Patrol (RMSP) and is trying to sweep participation of other nations.
Strategic Tripolar Competition in the Indian Ocean
In our day, the Indian Ocean has indeed become ‘the ocean of future’ (as
Admiral James termed it) enjoying significance in global affairs and acting as the
strategic fulcrum of international politics.19 The key actors in this strategic contest
are the US, China and India; however, other nation-states or block(s) also have
notable stakes in ongoing geo-oceanics. The strategic and economic competition
leading to power politics between the US and China transited to this Ocean.
In regional context, Iraq, Palestine, Syria and Yemen crises in the Middle
East, and great powers competition in Central Asia heat up new great game in
politico-socially marred region. Humanitarian and insurgency crises in Africa make
serious concern for world. US-China new cold war engulfs world and triggers block-
politics; it ripples from the Indian to Pacific oceans. Taiwan and South China seas
add up to the US-China resentment. Unending longest war of US in Afghanistan and
failing US-Taliban peace deal are boiling up South Asia where chronic conflicts
amongst nuclear triangle is increasing volatility. Rivalry between China and India,
and Pakistan and India seek a mediator. India-biased policies of US further
destabilise the region. US-Iran row on nuclear proliferation is a hotspot and volatile
issue in the region. Projects like Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC) which promise shared growth for shared future are being
endangered.20 In Asia, antagonism between North Korea and US is another foreign
policy challenge of US. Evacuating Afghanistan to invade any other country would be
a grand-strategic blunder that would seriously crack US leadership role in the world
order. Corona is worsening the human predicament. As of March 31, 2021, there have
been 128,971,684 confirmed cases of COVID-19; including 2,819,170 deaths.21 All of it
NDU Journal 2021 [36-47]
40 Tanweer Shahid
is leading to one thing: human predicament. Indian Ocean region given its socio-
economic quandary suffers more.
Insensitive to ongoing conflicts and pandemic shocks, the US, having India
as its strategic ally, seeks to realise its counter-balancing strategy against China.
These three powers making almost 50% of the world’s economy seek dominance in
the Indian Ocean. India, China, and the US view their prospective role in the Indian
Ocean with different geo-strategic lens to identify its role in the tug of power. India
pursues its “Security and Growth for all the Region” agenda, which mixes India’s “Act
(or Look) East and the Think West” policies 22. In Indian Military Maritime Strategy,
India claims to be the ‘Net Security Provider’ vying for a blue status, with competing
fleet, and its comprehensive nuclear triad.23 The US, its Western allies and India
being the strategic partner of US, view China’s economic and connectivity initiatives
with suspicion. China propels its vision of ‘Common future Common growth’ policy
through its economic engagements in the larger region, its Belt and Road Initiative,
the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.24 China has been investing largely both in Asia
and Africa to promote global connectivity as China propagates. The US continues
with its Indo-Pacific Strategy, which succeeded its Asia-Pacific Rebalance.
The frameworks and policies of the competitors diverge as they view
differently about the Middle East, terrorism, peace in Afghanistan and Middle East,
maritime security, relations with regional countries including Pakistan, overall global
alliance structure and the military and non-military balance in respective foreign
policies. Given the China-India conflict in the northern frontiers, and their recent
14/15 June 2020 stand-off in the Galwan valley gave further heat to this tripolar
competition. Interestingly, the US has been mute and passive to side its strategic
partner India, the Indian strategists weigh their strategic gains in the partnership vis-
à-vis respective geo-strategic aims and objectives.
Presence of the US in the Indian Ocean has its roots in its fight against
terrorism in Afghanistan, Middle East, securing of its energy needs, maintaining
regional hegemon status amongst others; but Islamic Republic of Iran is the country
in the world which needs a more focus when it comes to volatility of the Indian
Ocean region (North Korea in the Pacific). Iran’s strategic interests in this Ocean is
founded on its strategic compulsion to combat its “geopolitical isolation” 25 to garner
weight in the regional and global politics. Iran keeps steering its economic and
security engagements to assert itself as a key stakeholder in the strategic powerplay
in the Indian Ocean.26 A vital element of Iran’s strategic thought has been diplomatic
leverage it achieves employing its energy diplomacy,27 merging economic objectives
and its bigger strategic aims; more recently taking across the Atlantic Ocean in the
backyard of the US. For the US, it’s a dilemma too as India and Iran enjoy cordial
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Strategic Power Play in the Indian Ocean and Pakistan 41
relations and the US and Iran are at daggers drawn in the nuclear proliferation and
ideological perspectives keeping the US-Saudi handshake.
Currently, the European Union gazes the strategic developments in the
Indian Ocean from side lobes.28 Nevertheless, any political chaos, regional instability
in the Indian Ocean that may spill over to global turmoil and security in general and
maritime security situation shall cast very direct and significant adverse effects on
the EU, its trade, its resource stockpile, energy needs; thus the economic fibre.29
Being its alignment with the US, the EU would be in stand-by position, in all
estimations, to side by the US, if any situation warrants.30
Conceiving Positive US Role to Stabilise Region
In his inaugural speech, Mr. Joseph Biden announced a changed paradigm
of US foreign policy: from example of power to power of example. 31 During his first
foreign policy discourse, he sounded positive heralding, “America is back, American
diplomacy is back.” His presidential term would last until January 20, 2025. Lot of
time trails with him to bandage the bruised world, to lead the world to peace. But
the stepping ahead is needed; first step is to be taken. A right step in a right
direction. What should US do? Prime thing is to believe and act like a global leader.
For that, foremost is to respect international institutions, and their directions.
United Nations was built for collective security and collective peace, for finding
solutions to problems amongst the nation-states. Resolutions of the UN, be it on
Kashmir issue or Palestine dispute, must be followed and respected. Returning to
World Health Organization (WHO), and Paris Climate Agreement augur well for US
and the world. Reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear
deal with Iran can fetch stability in South Asia and Middle East, rather world politics.
He-should-do first diplomatic rigidity is only delaying peace, and escalating friction.
US is in position to promote stabilising Iran and Saudi Arabia ideological
wrestle; this would aid in US aim of stability in Middle East, and safeguarding
interests of its pampered child – Israel- in Middle East. Syria and Yemen crises need
attention. US is rightful in restraining itself out of any offensive action in these
crises. US-Conquest of influence, strategic dominance, and trade war with China can
be calmed down. Chinese President clearly stated frequently that China was not
trying to replace US in the world order; however, economic projects and economic
uplift for ‘common growth’ should be encouraged. Sanctions and military (power)
diplomacy need to be abandoned by US. As Biden said, he would restore alliances
and engage with the world, US-Europe normalization of ties, and effective
engagement with Russia, and North Korea are loud to assert that table talk and
effective diplomacy is key.
NDU Journal 2021 [36-47]
42 Tanweer Shahid
Pakistan’s Maritime Perspective
US-China new Cold War spread from the shores of Atlantic to Indian and
Pacific oceans, has re-elicited block-politics. Indian Ocean is witnessing an increased
geopolitical contest of great and rising powers. US policy shift of pivot-t0-Asia and
Trump era Indo-Pacific delineation have caused the region to become a zone of
competition turning to confrontation.32 Taiwan and South China seas issues, and the
position of China?
Geographically, Pakistan enjoys superior strategic orientation being at the
doorstep of energy highways in the Indian Ocean. 33 The country, with 290,000
square kilometres of Exclusive Economic Zone and Continental Shelf, over the wall
with Afghanistan, China and India, is an important littoral state.34 Around 15 million
barrels of crude oil from the Gulf region to the world passes close to Pakistani
coast.35 Since it lays the shortest sea access to Afghanistan, Central Asian States and
China. For China, this geography is particularly vital, so Pakistan makes the China
Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the flagship project of China’s One Belt One
Road initiative (OBOR). Along with enormous maritime potential, the country
enjoys great geo-strategic and geo-military superiority since the Cold War, the
Middle East crises and recent Global War on Terror. 36 Role of Pakistan in the US-led
wars in Afghanistan are manifestation of the same. But unwisely, Pakistan’s Indian
Ocean policy continues to be invisible 37 – a self-imposed blindness. The word Indian
Ocean is unconceived both in its foreign, maritime and defence policies. Even, the
Maritime Doctrine of Pakistan makes a benign mention of maritime environment
and the benign prose about the Indian Ocean38 with no policy thinking of Pakistan.
Though there are many force-level maritime security and defence initiatives by Pak
Navy; and to promote maritime awareness and transform prevalent continental
mindset, yet the destination seems far that Pakistani national policymaking shares
understanding with Mahan, Corbett, Pannikar; and (in the absence of any strategic
thinker to credit) Pakistan, being India-centric in its plans, may indulge in maritime
strategic think-race with India and incorporate oceans in its (grand) strategic
designs.
Overall, there exists great probability of as much strategic friction in the
Indian Ocean as much strategic perspectives differ. It may dent or make attainment
of geo-strategic objectives by any competitor complex. Resultantly, it is gradually
giving significant leverage to China which steps with an integrated and consistent
approach comparing incoherent and rambling policy of the US, and much inward-
looking lens of India. China, appealingly, has an all-encompassing policy. This wide-
ranging collaboration is steering China towards cohesive efforts for trade,
commercial, political, and military enterprises from South China Sea all over the
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Strategic Power Play in the Indian Ocean and Pakistan 43
African region.39 In such scenario, Pakistan, being a strategic partner of China, may
end up reaping some strategic and political dividends; however, Pakistan is still
failing to find balance in its foreign policy with Chinese and Western bonding not to
mention its domestic governance and economic turmoil further aggravated in
COVID-19 pandemic. In terms of tripolar competition amongst the US, India and
China, it is viewed that China thus far has ominously lengthened its collaborative or
capacity building interactions in the Indian Ocean for last thirty years. 40 Such
growing regional Chinese influence, and global economic growth has made the US
and Indians increasingly sceptical about China’s developing naval fleet, its mounting
sea presence in the Indian Ocean, when cumulatively seen with its economic
engagements with smaller countries. It fetches distant military leverage and strategic
room to China far from its own immediate region.41
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) makes an answer to US grand
strategy. QUAD threads the US, Australia, Japan and India certainly enjoy
commonality of their strategic aims against China. All view Asia-Pacific landscape
through US prism. Countering China in its own backyard, in the Indo-Pacific, is aim
QUAD set in 2007. Having been dormant due internal rifts of the countries and
disharmonized approach, the QUAD partnership was resurrected recently. The
partner countries held a virtual QUAD summit mid-March 2021. Interestingly, it was
the maiden one by Mr. Joe Biden after he was sworn in the presidential throne.
China firmly propagated that QUAD’S containment strategy would not succeed and
the QUAD led by the US should let go the “their Cold War mentality and ideological
prejudice”. Shifting from their conceived aims, the QUAD expanded from maritime
cooperation to Corona vaccine too, assigning India to spearhead the vaccine
production and regional distribution hub. Inclusion of India in Afghan peace is also a
strategic concern for Pakistan.
The above-stated functions of a naval force ride on the turbulent maritime
security environment, shaped by traditional and non-traditional threats. Such
choppy security situation and challenges are almost alike in every region including
Indian Ocean. Rather, Indian Ocean, the 3rd largest one after the Pacific and Atlantic
oceans, has acquired much greater significance. Owing to its pivotal position
bridging the Global East and the West, the Indian Ocean carries around 60% of
maritime highways’ burden plying through it. Energy fan-faring from the Middle
East for the World make this region in general, and Arabian sea in particular, central
to global politics in the perspective of geo-economics. Perpetual geo-strategic bouts
of the US with China and Iran, and competition for influence have resulted strategic
cyclone in the region.
NDU Journal 2021 [36-47]
44 Tanweer Shahid
Amongst the 38 states of the Indian Ocean, Pakistan remains one of the
countries with its politico-strategic weight in the global affairs, and its geographical
bearing. For defence of its maritime frontiers, accomplishment of foreign policy
goals through naval diplomacy, ensuring forceful maritime security, Pakistan
maintains a robust and potent navy in the Indian Ocean region. The Navy, following
its national policy of ‘peaceful co-existence’ continues to advocate greater regional
harmony and promote maritime cooperation for regional stability.
Against both traditional and non-traditional threats, Pakistan Navy has
demonstrated its commitment for regional harmony and cooperation. Its
participation in US-led Combined Maritime Task Forces 150 (Counterterrorism) and
151 (Counter-piracy) are reflective of Pakistan’s policy of collaborative and
cooperative engagements for global and regional causes of promoting peace through
ensuring security. Regional Maritime Security Patrols (RMSP), Task Force-88 for
maritime security of the gateway of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and Pakistan
Navy’s active participation in other regional and international bilateral and
multilateral maritime ventures are all but for one purpose of maintaining collective
good order at sea. Recently in February 2021, the 7th AMAN exercise embraced more
than 45 countries to endorse Pakistan’s maritime resolve against traditional and non-
traditional maritime threats in the Indian Ocean region.
All the ongoing geostrategic developments and happenings in the Indian
Ocean have implications for Pakistan. In Pakistan’s national security perspective, its
strong naval vigilance and collaborative maritime presence in the Indian Ocean is a
strategic compulsion, not a choice. A stronger and compatible navy is a core national
need, not an option.
Conclusion
Since primitive era, oceans hold an essential and important place in the
strategic thinking of nations, states and today’s nation-states vying for strategic goals
to be achieved through oceans politics or geo-oceanics. Though all oceans of the
world attract comparable significance for one reason or the other, yet the Indian
Ocean, the 3rd largest of the oceans make itself the hottest, sensitive, significant and
volatile for an array of reasons – trade and economic reasons, energy supplies,
politico-strategic imperatives, resourcefulness, maritime security, presence of Extra-
Regional Forces and multitude of conflicts heating up bowl of the Ocean.
A grand tug of strategic dominance amongst the great powers and the rising
powers is underway in the Indian Ocean. Though the world moves to multilateralism
and regional blocking, the US is likely to be the uni-pole of power and regional
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Strategic Power Play in the Indian Ocean and Pakistan 45
hegemon. China and India, under India-biased umpiring of the US, would remain
principal contenders building up military, political and economic muscles for
strategic tilt of power in one’s favour. India, the second largest in region, could not
comprehensively establish and maintain interdependencies in region in economic
and strategic terms; thus, it offering void filled by the more integrated and all-
encompassing Chinese approach for proclaimed socio-economic good of the smaller
states in the region. The US and China would continue to remain in the implicit and
explicit competition predominantly for economic gains, regional alliances and geo-
strategic influence. The rift between Iran and the US is likely to dominate the
regional politics whereas the EU continues with passivity.
Government of Pakistan should essentially factor-in its oceanic strategy in
its foreign and maritime policies, spelling out how it views the ongoing powerplay in
the Indian Ocean while crafting its course of action to safeguard its national
interests. Pakistan ought to proactively engage other regional players through
effective maritime diplomacy and promote maritime cooperation to combat
traditional and non-traditional maritime threats. A fresh look at the role of oceans in
pursuing national aims and the requirement of stronger navy and para-maritime
forces is need of the hour not only to counter national security threats in maritime
domain but also to leverage Pakistan in maritime domain vis-à-vis growing maritime
muscles and competition in the Indian Ocean region. Shift of geo-politics to geo-
economics, security of maritime trade, especially in the CPEC perspective,
exponentially raises demands of a stronger, robust and all-inclusive navy and
stronger maritime foothold of Pakistan in the region.
When it comes to the smaller nation-states, such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka or
Bangladesh, Myanmar etc., they can gain much from various capacity building,
socio-economic and infrastructural initiatives in the policy framework of the bigger
nations competing for the strategic dominance in the Indian Ocean. The smaller
states, however, are to choose and act with strategic sagacity for their national
interests and uplift of their socioeconomic standards rather than being grass for the
wrestle amongst the elephants.
NDU Journal 2021 [36-47]
46 Tanweer Shahid
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Strategic Power Play in the Indian Ocean and Pakistan 47
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NDU Journal 2021 [36-47]
