Lesson 05 - Fiscal Policy and Stabilization
Lesson 05 - Fiscal Policy and Stabilization
Taxation
MBA, Evening,
Fall 2021
Contents
Introduction
Role of Transfers
Multiplier models with Investment Fixed
Income Determination with Budget
Multiplier models with Investment Fixed
Income Determination with Budget
Introduction
Normally, a modern-day government has a large variety of debt
obligations. And the term 'public debt’ may be defined to cover
some or all of them as per data availability and purpose in
hand. Thus, at one extreme, it may include all financial
liabilities of the government (including its currency obligations),
while at the other extreme, it may be confined to only a
selected few items. An unambiguous decision is also needed
regarding the coverage of inter-governmental financial
obligations and borrowings of authorities from the central bank
of the country.
At this juncture, it would be helpful to have a brief idea of the
type of obligations which the government of a country usually
incurs.
Public Debt
Introduction
Firstly, there is the currency itself. Generally, however, the
government creates only a part of the currency; the rest is
created by the central bank of the country. Therefore, the
entire currency circulating in the market may be included in
public debt only if the central bank is classified as a wing of the
government. In any case, currency obligations normally remain
dormant or inactive and the government is not required to pay
(redeem) them at the most a part of these obligations may be
replaced by others.
Public Debt …
Introduction…
Secondly, another set of obligations of the government
constitutes its short-term debt. These obligations are
normally of a maturity of less than one year at the time of
issue and consist of components like the treasury bills.
Thirdly, some obligations do not have any pre-determined
maturity. They are known as floating debt. Examples of this
category include provident funds, small savings, reserve
funds and deposits, and so on. In India, the Government of
India also issues certain special securities to meet its
obligations towards international institutions like the
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and
the International Monetary Fund. These special securities
may be called special floating debt.
Public Debt …
Introduction…
Fourth category of government obligations consists of the permanent
(also known as dated or funded) debt. Such loans have a maturity of
more than one year at the time of issue. In practice, their maturity is
usually between three and thirty years. Some of them may even be
non-terminable (or perpetuities) so that the government is obliged to
pay only the interest on such debt without ever repaying the
principle amount.
Fifthly, obligations owed to foreign governments, institutions, firms
and individuals are called external loans. More precisely, they are
‘loans raised from outside the country'. They may have a wide range
of maturities and be subject to their own specific terms and
conditions.
The foregoing description shows the possibility of defining public
debt with alternative coverage in conformity with the purpose in
hand and data availability, etc.
Public Debt And Private Debt
Government borrowings have some similarities with private ones. Like a private
borrower, the government may also borrow either for consumption or for investment
purposes. Most of its debt obligations are also interest bearing. But the dissimilarities
between the two are more fundamental.
(i) A private economic unit cannot borrow internally, that is to say, it cannot borrow from
itself. However, the government usually borrows internally, that is, from its own subjects
and from within the country.
(ii) While a private economic unit can repay the debt either out of its earnings or out of
its accumulated assets or by fresh borrowings (thus substituting one debt for the other),
such need not be the case with the government. The government is the creator of
currency and can pay its debt straight-away by creating more of it. The fact that it usually
does not do so only reflects its concern for the welfare and stability of the economy and
not the lack of its power to do so. However, external debt can be discharged in this
manner only if it is repayable in local currency. Creation of domestic currency cannot be
the means of repaying it if the foreign debt is repayable in foreign currency or gold. In
that case, foreign currency will have to be procured through export earnings or through
some other means, failing which gold will have to be paid out.
Public Debt And Private Debt
Secondly, the belief in laissez-faire philosophy also dictated that the authorities
should avoid undue interference in the working of the market. Raising loans and
spending them militated against this thinking.
Thirdly, Government loans were considered akin to private loans. It was
believed that like private loans, public loans should also be retired as soon as
possible. But we know that public loans need not be repaid at all. Maturing
loans may be replaced by new ones by either conversions or through cash
subscriptions. Also some loans may be perpetuities.
4. These days it is widely believed that the government of an underdeveloped
country should play an active role in the development of the economy. In this
view, budgetary policy is an important and effective tool in accelerating the
process of capital accumulation and economic growth. This may be done
through borrowing and investing those funds in developmental projects. Loans
may even be earmarked for certain project.
In this context, care should be taken to note that when a government adopts a
deficit budget, it need not necessarily add to its debt from open market. This is
because the government may finance its budgetary deficit by one or more of
the following means.
Why Public Debt?
Before we take up various theoretical and policy issues connected with the
public debt of a country, it might be useful to get familiar with some of the
important terms usually used in relation to public debt.
Public debt may be internal or external. When it is owned or held by the
subjects of the indebted government, it is an internally held debt. In this case,
the community owes this debt to some of its own members. The debt will be
external if the creditors are foreigners and there is a draining of national
resources in favour of foreign countries when the debt is serviced. It is clear
that if loan obligations are allowed to change hands, internal debt may get
converted into foreign debt and vice versa. Similarly, loans are called
marketable if existing holders can sell them to others. Non-marketable loans,
on the other hand are those which have been issued in favour of specified
debt holders only and cannot be sold to others.
Prominent Kinds Of Debt
Public loans are also classified into productive and unproductive ones. But
this classification cannot give us a clear-cut categorization. Essentially, a
loan is termed productive if it is used for acquiring income-earning assets
or project(s) for the government or on those heads which add to the
productive capacity of the economy as a whole, like education and health
services etc. But in reality, even fighting a war may not always be an
unproductive act because defense of the country is a prerequisite for all
productive activities. Moreover, loans are seldom earmarked for specific
investments or projects. Therefore, instead of labeling government loans
as productive and unproductive, a more useful exercise is to examine the
expenditure policy of the government in detail and assess the desirability
or otherwise of each item of expenditure and the amount going into it.
Limits Of Raising Public Debt
We find that in most countries public debt has registered a continuous upward trend
during the last few decades. As seen above, some inherent forces contribute to this
trend. But still a question arises as to whether there are any definite limits beyond
which a government cannot raise loans and add to its outstanding debt obligations. To
answer this question, we shall distinguish between the will and capacity of the
government to raise loans both in the short-run and long-run.
1. It must be noted at the outset that a modern government is not expected to borrow
for the sake of it. It is not expected to borrow suit the personal whims of individuals
running the government. It would borrow for reasons of either economic compulsions
or for furthering social and economic goals of the society. On these criteria, it may
borrow even for consumption purposes such as for defense, for education for indulging
in 'wasteful expenditure of any kind or to and health, for meeting natural calamities
and for other welfare objectives. Similarly, it may borrow so as to assist the economy in
its growth activities via capital accumulation, and anti-cyclical measures. In other
words, it is expected that the government would abide by a self-imposed limitation
that all borrowings must be for ‘public purposes'.
Limits Of Raising Public Debt
2. In some cases, there may also be specific legal restrictions on public
borrowings.
3. Given total loanable funds, government borrowings add to their demand and
cause an upward pressure on interest rates. Thus higher interest cost can act as
a deterrent against the borrowing programmes of the authorities. If compelled
to borrow on a large scale, such as during a war, then it may try to keep the
interest cost low by concentrating on short maturity loans.
4. In the long run, however, total volume of public debt can increase gradually
and in line with the growth in national income and credit structure. Therefore,
no definite limit may be stated to exist for the volume of public debt in the long-
run (unless the law sets such a limit). The authorities need not reduce the
outstanding debt—it can just be renewed by borrowing afresh. In the process,
even total outstanding debt may be allowed to increase. The philosophy that
the government should be guided by over-all requirements of the economy
without worrying about the actual budgetary surpluses or deficits has also freed
the government from its inhibitions about the absolute size of the public debt.
Limits Of Raising Public Debt
5. A line of thinking propounded by Gurley and Shaw and the Radcliffe Committee
emphasizes the important role of public debt in the economy of a country. Gurley and
Shaw claim that the physical growth of an economy cannot be sustained without a
healthy and strong financial sector. And this in turn necessitates the growth of public
debt since the latter provides a basis for the superstructure of credit in the economy.
Similarly, the Radcliffe Committee emphasized the role of public debt as a powerful tool
in the credit and monetary regulation of the economy. This line of reasoning has been
subsequently advocated, elaborated and emphasized by many writers.
6. A fear is expressed that unless checked by some means, a government may resort to
excessive borrowing and get into a 'debt trap'—that is, a situation in which it has to
borrow afresh to service its existing debt. This state of affairs may eventually raise
interest cost to unmanageable proportions of its revenue receipts and expenditure. In
the case of a foreign debt, the country's resources also get drained. And in any case, the
government loses much of its budgetary maneuverability on account of the committed
debt servicing obligations, Such a situation also leads to many other ill-effects like those
on investment, economic stability and balance of payments.
Public Debt And Economic Growth
It is claimed that most public borrowings from the market only divert
funds into the hands of the government. As a result, there is no net
addition in aggregate demand and hence no increased pressures on prices.
This reasoning is quite misleading because it tries to hide some basic facts.
Firstly, even if public debt does not add to aggregate demand, it is bound
to be inflationary because the economy's productive resources get
diverted from the production of consumption goods into that of capital
goods. By their very nature, investment goods industries have longer
gestation periods and therefore during the intervening period, the demand
for consumption goods tends to exceed their supply.
Secondly, borrowings used for war activities, for meeting natural calamities
and for other relief measures are most likely to be inflationary in their
impact because they are basically consumption oriented.
Public Debt And Inflation…
There is no doubt that the manner and extent of changes in the interest rate
structure and the volume and composition of public debt affect the volume
and composition of the demand flows, investment and other decisions in the
economy. But these effects are a matter of empirical investigation and
cannot be generalized. However, it is possible to state some general
tendencies. For example, it is very likely that an increased supply of liquid
purchasing power will push up demand and (if the supply does not rise fast
enough) prices also. A fall in the supply of liquidity should similarly
discourage demand aid prices. In the same way, when interest rates go up,
investment activity will be checked unless counteracted by heightened
inflationary expectations. Higher interest rates, moreover, tend to push down
the values of the assets (both real and nominal) and this has a dampening
effect on both consumption and investment. Lower interest rates, on the
other hand, induce extra expenditure in the economy including investment.
Public Debt And Economic Regulation…
These tendencies can be used as inputs for an anti-cyclical debt policy.
During the boom period, for example, aggregate availability of liquidity
should be reduced. This may be done by reducing the availability of
aggregate liquidity in the market while taking care that this is not
counteracted by an increase in money supply with the public. This is sought
to be achieved through sales of securities in the open market operations.
However, a more effective approach is that of reducing the supply of debt
without a corresponding increase in the supply of money. Similarly, within
the given volume of public debt, the maturity composition could be
lengthened, and particular interest rates (or yields) could be raised. While
combating a depression, similarly, the modus operandi can be to increase
the total supply of liquidity. This may be done by simply adding to the
money supply, or adding to the public debt, replacing public debt with
money supply (through open market operations) and reducing the general
level of interest rates.
Public Debt And Economic Regulation…
Debt financing, however, as compared with tax financing, has its own limitations
which can sometimes outweigh its advantages. Public debt, by definition, has to be
serviced. Interest has to be paid on it, and the principle is also to be repaid. This
means that those who contribute to the financing of the expenditure in the first
instance really do not lose. In the case of taxation, the taxpayers straight away
lose some resources in favour of the government without any claim to their
recovery. Debt financing, therefore, adds to the future budgetary commitments of
the authorities. A part of the future revenue has to go into servicing of the debt.
Ordinarily, therefore, the authorities may be expected to favour tax financing,
unless the other attending considerations are more weighty. Moreover, since it is
the richer sections only which can subscribe to the public debt, debt servicing
becomes a medium for redistributing national income in favour of the rich unless
counter-balanced by other policy measures. It is also a possibility that the projects
chosen for debt financing are really not run efficiently enough and do not generate
surpluses to pay off their cost. But this, we must remember, is a question of wrong
calculations at the planning stage and mismanagement of the projects which
should be avoided. A major drawback of debt financing of a war is that effective
supplies in the market are reduced without a corresponding reduction in the
purchasing power. This does not happen with taxation. Therefore, the problem of
keeping inflation under check is more troublesome under debt financing than under
tax financing of war.
BURDEN OF DEBT
This dimension of public debt has attracted a lot of attention in economic literature. The classical philosophy
of laissez-faire assumed that the State was external to the “real economy which comprised only the private
sector. Accordingly, resources transferred to the State were ‘lost' to 'the economy'. In line with this reasoning,
laissez-faire philosophy was against deficit public budgets, except under dire necessities. In addition, any
deficit was to be wiped out as soon as possible. "The national debt used to he regarded as an aftermath of
war. an incubus to be swept away as quickly as the taxpayer would allow; and the management of the debt
used to consist of a search for the cheapest way of dealing with a nuisance.”“ Furthermore, public debt was
often divided into productive and dead-weight categories. The general idea was that the government should
not raise loans for consumption activities; at the most it may do so for the investment activities only. Public
debt should not become a drain upon its budget. Debts raised during a war etc. were, therefore, very
obnoxious according to this approach.
Assuming that the State was not an integral part of the “economy’, E. D. Domar7 claimed that interest
payment on public debt should be taken to represent a 'burden of debt'. He related the interest payments to
the level of national income and thus pointed out that as interest on debt as a proportion of national income
rises, a larger portion of national income will have to be taxed to pay thaj interest. We must, however,
remember that the tax revenue collected for interest payment, is being disbursed to the debt holders. The
burden that arises from a large public debt and a large tax collection for interest payment, therefore, really
depends upon three things.
• Resource cost of tax collections and interest payments.
• Loss of manoeuvrability in the public budget and related constraints.
• Distributive effects of activities and decisions associated with existence, operations and management of
public debt: For example, an increase in inequalities is taken to add to the burden of public debt.
Opponents of public debt claim that it is burdensome on the basis of some other criteria as well. Those who
make the mistake of equating national economy with the private sector only, also tend to ignore the fact that
resources are also transferred from the government to the private sector. Factually speaking, transfers between
the government and the private sector are transfers within the economy and, therefore, by themselves, are
neither burdensome nor beneficial. Burden of public debt takes the form of its spill-over effects. It may
become even 'unsustainable' and the government may fall into a debt trap', that is, a situation in which it has to
borrow afresh to service its existing debt.
While internal debt does not cause a direct variation in aggregate resource availability for the country,
external debt does. At the time of contracting external loans, the debtor country acquires some real
resources and loses them when that debt is serviced. Ordinarily, an external debt raised for meeting
consumption needs does not add to the productive capacity of the borrowing country and results in a net
drainage of resources at the time of its repayment-more so if the loans are interest bearing. However, the
net outflow will also depend upon the terms of trade. If the terms of trade have moved in favour of the
debtor country, then to that extent the burden of the debt is reduced. The debtor country may even gain in
the net.
Judiciously used for investment purposes, foreign loans are expected to add to the productive capacity of
the borrowing country. In that case, they need not inflict any net burden on the borrowing country. This is,
however, subject to the condition that the borrowing country is able to have an export surplus for servicing
the external debt.
DEBT BURDEN AND FUTURE GENERATIONS
It is sometimes claimed that debt financing of current expenditure leads to a burden upon future
generations of the society. Two interrelated questions are involved here.
• Does public debt necessarily imposes a burden or a sacrifice upon the future generations?
• Is it possible to inake the future generations contribute to the present utilization of resources through
debt financing?
As explained below, the classical position is that in debt financing, the current generation can use only those
resources which are available to it. It cannot draw resources from the future. Future generations suffer only
if the current generation reduces its saving and capital formation, thereby retarding the growth of future
productive capacity of the economy. In other words, consumption of currently available resources, however,
may have the spill-over effect of reducing availability of capital resources for the future generations.
It is claimed that debt financing is more burdensome for future generations than tax financing for the
following reasons as well. Debt financing leaves in the hands of the debt owners bonds and securities which
they consider as part of their wealth. While in the case of taxation, they believe themselves to be poorer, in
the case of debt financing, they are not likely to do so. Accordingly, under debt financing, consumption is
not likely to fall. By implication, debt financing can impose a burden upon future generations, but it is not a
result that must necessarily follows.
DEBT BURDEN AND FUTURE GENERATIONS
This stand has been challenged by several writers like Buchanan, Bowen, Davis, Kopf, Musgrave, Modigliani and
others. James Buchanan, in his book Public Principles of Public Debt takes the position that a burden implies an
involuntary sacrifice.' Holders of public debt, however, voluntarily opt for it. However, Buchanan is making the
mistake of taking an individualistic view-point where, for an individual, a tax entails a loss of resources while a
debt does not. But the economy as a whole suffers a loss of resources in both debt financing and tax financing
We have noted above that that if the present generation provides the resources for debt financing by cutting its
consumption, then savings and capital formation would not be adversely affected and the future generation would
not be burdened on account of reduced capital stock. Bowen, Davis and Kopf take the extreme position where the
present generation chooses not to reduce its consumption at all, but finance entire debt through reduced savings.
Modigliani tries to show that debt financing by the government necessarily leads to a reduction in capital stock
inherited by the future generations." To elaborate, if the economy is already at full employment and the
government adds to its own expenditure, then there is bound to be a fall in either private consumption or
investment or both. And the outcome is the same (though a milder one) even when the economy is working at a
level below full employment.
DEBT BURDEN AND FUTURE GENERATIONS
The foregoing arguments and analysis ignore, expenditure side of government activities; or alternatively, it is
being assumed that the government expenditure is necessarily of the consumption type, such as, in the case
of a war. This is mostly an erroneous assumption. In an underdeveloped country, especially, public debt is
very likely to be raised with the specific intention of increasing investment and capital stock. And to a smaller
extent, this holds even for developed countries. It is for this neglect of the expenditure side of the
government's budget that Mishan calls all those who support the theory of shift of burden to future
generations, the burden mongers'.12 The net effect of any debt operation, therefore, need not be
burdensome for the future generations at all.
There is, however, one clear-cut case where the burden of the debt can be passed on to the future
generations. It is when the debts are raised externally. The current generation receives the resources
(whether for consumption, or investment, or for destruction in a war) and the future generations pay back
the debt. The future generations may not feel the burden on account of increased productivity etc., but the
burden of repayment certainly lies on them.
In conclusion, therefore, we may say that public debt (for that matter, even taxation) will put a burden on
future generations if two conditions are satisfied:
(i) the present generation does not reduce its savings, and
(i) the government does not add to the capital stock and productive capacity of the country.
While arguing this problem, different authors have made alternative assumptions regarding the response
pattern of the private sector and the expenditure policy of the government and have thus reached non-
identical conclusions. The thinking on the possibility of shifting debt burden to the future generations ignores
the economic implications and ill effects of the debt trap in which the government may find itself. This is a
manifestation of a real burdent which is worth avoiding.
DEBT REDEMPTION
The traditional thinking on this problem has already been noted. It prescribed a policy of paying off the
public debt as soon as possible (though in practice some governments defaulted in debt repayment and
even repudiated it). Current thinking, however, places debt retirement in the context of over-all debt and
fiscal policies of the government and favours repayment of the debt under normal conditions.
One simple way of ending the debt obligations is to repudiate the debt. But it is unethical on the part of
the government to do so. Such an action erodes credit standing of the government and creates
difficulties for its future borrowing programmes. It is also disastrous for the financial system as a whole
and more so for those individual creditors who had invested their life-long savings in government debt or
who were relying upon the interest payments as a regular source of income.
There are two systematic approaches for retiring public debt. The first is to create a sinking fund in which
the government regularly puts aside some money and uses the accumulated fund for periodic and partial
retirement of the debt. The second approach is that of regularly retiring a small portion of the debt every
year. It is obvious that for either method of debt retirement, the government budget must have an over-
all surplus. Alternatively, the government may resort to printing of additional currency.
Sinking fund approach is followed in several countries. But this method can succeed in retiring the debt
only if the government has a substantial budgetary saving every year, uses the saved amount for this
purpose and does not resort to additional borrowings. Interest earned on the balances should also be
credited to the sinking fund. In olden days, public debt was usually raised during wars and other
emergencies and could not be paid off quickly. Therefore, sinking fund technique was considered a sound
and practical one. However, of late, this practice has degenerated into only a semblance of it. Compared to
the total outstanding debt the amounts credited to the fund are paltry. Sometimes, even authorized
amounts are not credited to the fund or they are even diverted to other uses.
DEBT REDEMPTION
The method of paying off a portion of the debt every year may be effected in two ways. Firstly, the loans
outstanding may have staggered maturity dates. The public debt in this case can be in the form of serial bonds.
The advantage of this method is that the repayment obligations are well-spread over time and do not
concentrate the burden in a single year. It may not, however, be always possible to serialize the existing bonds
without unduly disturbing the government bonds market. Accordingly, the second method adopted is that of
earmarking a portion of the budget for debt retirement, purchasing the bonds in the market and canceling
them. The danger with this method is that it is of a voluntary character. Under short-term pressures, a
government may not adhere to the practice resulting in 'gap’ years.
When the government does not want to reduce its outstanding debt obligations, it may "fund the maturing
loans. This means that the existing debt is converted into a new one of longer maturity. The holders of
maturing debt are given an option to subscribe to the new debt by surrendering the older one. In addition,
fresh cash subscriptions may also be accepted. Funding is considered quite a legitimate alternative to retiring
the debt when the government is not in a position to do so or does not want to do so for policy reasons. In
India, it is a normal practice to borrow in excess of maturing loans resulting in a continuous addition to our
public debt.
It is noteworthy that these days, a reduction in outstanding debt liabilities of a modern government has
become a rare phenomenon. This is because of several reasons including the following.
• Indispensable role of public debt in being a foundation of the modem financial system.
• Potential of using public debt for regulating the financial system.
• Potential of using public debt for accelerating economic growth, and achieving various socio economic goals
like stabilization.
SOME ISSUES IN DEBT MANAGEMENT
The term debt management refers to the formulation and implementation of a debt policy designed to
achieve certain objectives. According to the traditional philosophy, debt management consisted of
minimizing its interest cost and paying it off as early as possible. However, a modern welfare state uses
debt management as a policy tool for achieving various socio-economic objectives. Of course, every
government is still interested in keeping the interest cost to the minimum possible but if this objective is in
conflict with other objectives, it is sacrificed. Other important objectives before authorities include
economic stabilization, growth, employment and overall soundness of the financial system as a whole.
Debt management policy has to run in harmony with the monetary management of the country. They both
influence stabilization and economic growth. Open market operations are usually conducted by
sale/purchase of government securities. Through general and selective credit controls, monetary policy
tries to influence the volume and flows of funds and thereby the working of the entire economy. The way
in which debt management can also contribute to this policy objective has been discussed above. It has
also been seen how the objective of reducing interest cost on debt can come into conflict with the anti-
cyclical monetary policy of the country.
It should be noted that the aggregate volume of outstanding debt reflects a cumulative effect of budgetary
policy of the government. The volume of debt increases or decreases in line with deficit or surplus
budgeting. But monetary policy can aim to alter the volume and composition of money and credit without
any such constraint. In the case of public debt, the management part would mainly comprise changing its
maturity composition so as to affect its yield structure and liquidity content. But it must be reiterated that
monetary policy and public debt are closely linked.
In a big country with a multi-layer government, effort must be made to ensure of inter-government
coordination. Care has also to be taken to ensure that their borrowing programmes and terms and
conditions of loans to be raised do not come in conflict with each other. Normally, the national government
is able to borrow at lower rates than a sub-national government. Therefore, the rates of interest offered on
central and state governments loans should vary to accommodate this fact. Again - different governments
should avoid entering the market at the same time or in quick succession, particularly if the availability of
funds in the market is limited compared with combined requirements of the governments. In India, the
task of coordination in all these aspects is entrusted to the Reserve Bank of India. It advises them regarding
the timings, terms, and the amounts of loans that can be raised in the market without undue difficulty.