Offense, Defense, and the security
dilemma
jueves, 15 de septiembre de 2022 7:23 p.m.
- Security dilemma: an increase in one state's security
decreases the security of others
- Defense vs offense
- Will status quo powers adopt similar security
policies?
- If defense has an advantage: increase of state's
security whilst SLIGHTLY decreasing others' security
OFFENSE-DEFENSE BALANCE
- Offense advantage: it's easier to destroy other's army
and take its territory than it is to defend one's own
(Investigar el caso de Rusia)
- Defense advantage: viceversa
- If only answer is expansion: VICIOUS. Defense is
much more benevolent
○ If defense is advantageous and states are of
equal size --> security dilemma doesn't play a
huge role and international anarchy remains
unimportant
○ If neither can't conquer each other, self-
preservation stops being a priority
1. If the state has one dollar to spend on increasing its
security, should it put it into offensive or defensive
forces? Which has a greater impact? Which offsets
first?
a. If similar defense and security requirements,
it's possible to avoid an arms race -->
equilibrium
b. Más apertura a la indiferencia
2. Is it better to attack or defend?
a. Short-run stability
b. When the offense has the advantage, the
chances of war might be increased --- the
reciprocal feal of a surprise attack
b. Más apertura a la indiferencia
2. Is it better to attack or defend?
a. Short-run stability
b. When the offense has the advantage, the
chances of war might be increased --- the
reciprocal feal of a surprise attack
i. And, at the same time, chances of
cooperation decrease
c. If defense has the advantage: cooperation and
stability are possible among status-quo powers
- World War I vs. World War II
○ WWI: Underestimation of the power of the
defense. All powers started to arm themselves,
triggering preemption
○ WWII: They put too much trust on the power
of the defense
§ Security dilemma was less powerful
§ Hitler's plan threw off
TECHNOLOGY AND GEOGRAPHY
- Defense is favored when states are separated by
strong, geographical barriers
- Attachment to one's state and land reinforce those
barriers for defense
- Man-made barriers
- Technology
○ Highly vulnerable weapons --- employed before
they are attacked
○ Oscillations
○ With technology, sometimes the offensive
gains the advantage, while at other times the
defense gains the advance (when THERE'S NOT
A STALEMATE, offensive has the advantage)
○ Cheap weapons --- defense
○ States that care primarily about self-protection
would not need to engage in arms races
○ Nuclear weapons --- deterrence
§ Changes how security dilemma operates
OFFENSE-DEFENSE DIFFERENTIATION
- Variable that affects how strongly the security
dilemma operates: do weapons and policies that
protect the state also provide the capability for
attack?
○ No: Security dilemma no longer applies and a
state can increase its own security without
decreasing that of others
dilemma operates: do weapons and policies that
protect the state also provide the capability for
attack?
○ No: Security dilemma no longer applies and a
state can increase its own security without
decreasing that of others
§ Consequences: more chance of
cooperation, less assumption of attack
among status-quo powers, warning when
offensive is deployed
○ Yes: conquest and aggression are possible
- Armament
○ "German military forces were now so strong as
to make it impossible for any Power or
combination of Powers to attack her
successfully ." What does she want them for
then?
- When inferences are wrong, the security dilemma is
deepened (armament increases and cooperation
decreases)
- When offensive and defensive postures are different,
uncertainty about the security dilemma is removed
○ If all states support the status quo --> arms
control agreement is more possible
- Difficulty of distinguishing between offensive or
defensive weapons
○ DIFFERENTIATION IS DIFFICULT
- When will a status quo want offensive arms?
1) The offense has a great advantage over the
defense
2) States want to regain lost territory lost in the
opening stages of war
3) The only way to make peace is through seizure
of territory or NATO mode
- Whether a weapon is offensive or defensive depends
on a particular situation
○ There are some that are exclusively defensive
○ Essence of defense: keeping the other side out
of your territory
○ Fortifications or any barrier
○ Limited mobility presents ambiguity
OFFENSE-DEFENSE DIFFERENTIATION AND STRATEGIC
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
- In the context of deterrence, offensive weapons are
