Learning Session

Strategy in the Time of

VUCA
ENVISIONING and ENACTING A
MORE IMPACT- FULL FUTURE to

SAVE THE CHILDREN

[email protected]
March 31 (Friday)
NOVOTEL Hotel, Cubao QC
Session Objectives:
By the end of the session, participants will be able to
1.understand challenges of transforming the work
of their organizations in the midst of a VUCA
world
2.review whether the strategies (and plans) that
have been developed are adequate to address
the challenges in a VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and
Ambiguity) world and the futures that are emerging.
NRCOnfesor*March 2023
Content Hub: CH1304412
 The new dynamics of
strategy: sense-making in a
complex and complicated
world

Chaos, Conflict and Courage

NRCOnfesor*March 2023
Content Hub: CH1304412
 Today’s Session Agenda
Session Overview
9:00 -930

“Making Sense” of the VUCA World

Exercise: 1. the Children on the Bridge 9:30 -10:30

Break 10:30-10:45
Responding to the Challenge: Call for Emergent Strategies
Exercise 2:The New Marshmallow Challenge 10:45-12:00

Break (Lunch) 12:00 – 1:00

LROS: Responding to the Challenge of Multiple Futures for
Strategies 1:00-2:00
Exercise: LRO Strategies

Presentations Content Hub: CH1304412

2:00 – 3:00
https://haikudeck.com/p/BYk8eCzlOn
 What is happening? What has
happened? What will happen?
WHY?WHY?WHY?WHY?WHY?

The
The “EMERGING”
The “PERMANENT” FUTURE
“HISTORICAL
“ PAST
PRESENT ?
NRCOnfesor*March 2023
Content Hub: CH1304412
What does VUCA mean?
The term VUCA was coined by the US Army War
College in the 1990s to describe the nature of the
world’s threats following the end of the Cold War as
volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous.

In military parlance, it is a result of threats being global

and multilateral more than being bilateral. VUCA has
found its way into management and business
environment following the 2008-2009 financial crisis.1
NRCOnfesor*March 2023 8
1Kinsinger, & Walch. (2012). Living and Leading in a VUCA World. Retrieved from Thunderbird Global School of Management: http://www.thunderbird. edu/article/living-and-leading-vuca-world
 21st Century: THE VUCA WORLD

- HOW
WELL CAN
YOU
Complex Volatile
PREDICT
THE
RESULTS
OF YOUR
ACTION?
+ Ambiguous Uncertain

- HOW MUCH DO YOU KNOW

NRCOnfesor*March 2023 ABOUT THE SITUATION?9 +
Source: Bennett, N., & Lemoine, G. (2014). What VUCA Really means for you. Retrieved from Harvard Business Review: https://hbr.org/2014/01/what-vuca-really-means-for-you
 VOLATILE

“The challenge is
unexpected or unstable,
and may be of unknown
duration, but it’s not
necessarily hard to
understand; knowledge
about it is often
available.”
NRCOnfesor*March 2023 10
Source: Bennett, N., & Lemoine, G. (2014). What VUCA Really means for you. Retrieved from Harvard Business Review: https://hbr.org/2014/01/what-vuca-really-means-for-you
UNCERTAIN
Despite lack of
other information,
the event’s basic
cause and effect
are known.
Change is possible
but not given. 11
Source: Bennett, N., & Lemoine, G. (2014). What VUCA Really means for you. Retrieved from Harvard Business Review: https://hbr.org/2014/01/what-vuca-really-means-for-you
 COMPLEX

The situation has many

interconnected parts and
variables. Some
information is available or
can be predicted, but the
volume or nature of it can
be overwhelming to
process.
NRCOnfesor*March 2023 12
Source: Bennett, N., & Lemoine, G. (2014). What VUCA Really means for you. Retrieved from Harvard Business Review: https://hbr.org/2014/01/what-vuca-really-means-for-you
AMBIGUOUS

Relationships
are completely
unclear. No
precedents
exist; you face
“unknown of
unknowns.”
13
Source: Bennett, N., & Lemoine, G. (2014). What VUCA Really means for you. Retrieved from Harvard Business Review: https://hbr.org/2014/01/what-vuca-really-means-for-you
AMBIGUOUS

Relationships
are completely
unclear. No
precedents
exist; you face
“unknown of
unknowns.”
14
Source: Bennett, N., & Lemoine, G. (2014). What VUCA Really means for you. Retrieved from Harvard Business Review: https://hbr.org/2014/01/what-vuca-really-means-for-you
How does this VUCA Causes FEAR,
RISK AVERSION,
world IMPACT and “back to
you and me? basics” reactions
Induces DOUBT,
DISTRUST, HESITATION
and impedes DECISION-
Making
Causes a desire to look
for SCAPEGOATS and
BLACK-and WHITE
solutions that are usually
erroneous

Causes excessive—
many times, futile -
‘analysis paralysis’
NRCOnfesor*March 2023 15
 Exercise:
A RIDDLE:
Baking a ? What is the
difference?

?
Sending a rocket to the
moon?
Raising a child
?
NRCOnfesor*March 2023 16
 FAR
Chaotic

Complex
Agreement/ Political
Alignment

CLOSE
Simple Complicated

LOW HIGH
UNCertainty

NRCOnfesor*March 2023 17
 We are CERTAIN when:
1. When we see patterns – in behavior, action

2. When we understand cause and effect of patterns

underlying the behavior

3. When we understand the “leverage points” for

change
4. Know the strategies to respond

5. Outcomes are predictable.

NRCOnfesor*March 2023 18
Exercise : Below are a set of events. Locate the events in the box of complexity.

Simple Complicated Complex Chaotic

Design Manage an
Prune a
Build a Design a an office agro/eco- tree
car car tourism
Build an resort
Change office Deal with Deal with the
the tire aftermath of Re-plant aftermath of a
a storm a fruit major
Deal with a Build a farm earthquake/
surge
wall with new tsunami
multiple car
crash trees
NRCOnfesor*March 2023 19
 "Even if those living in
Leyte and Samar have
experience with typhoons,
this was really the first
time they experienced a
storm surge which
could've been explained as
a tsunami. That could be
one lesson – [we could've
said] tsunami-like effect.”

Sec. Sonny Coloma,

Presidential Communications Operations
Office
Image Source: NRCOnfesor*March 2023 20
http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3666/10797247665_fa23d2728a.jpg
WHERE ARE WE TODAY?
▪ Twenty years ago, we wondered what we would do with all the FREE time we were to get from
the introduction of new communication technology !
▪ Twenty years later ---- the technology has NOT produced the free time that we thought we would
get. Instead, the intensity of work and mindlessness has increased.
▪ A thriving global economy that leaves 850 million people suffering from hunger and 3 billion
people living on less than $2.00 a day . 80 % Of the world called “THE poor” live on 15% of the
world’s total GNP.

▪ We spend enormous resources on

agriculture and food systems only to create I think there are good reasons for suggesting that
non-sustainable mass production of low- the modern age has ended. Today, many things
quality junk food that pollutes both our indicate that we are going to through a
bodies and our environment, resulting in top transitional period, when it seems that something
soil degradation of a territory as big as India is on the was out and something else is painfully
(21 percent of the world’s arable land).
being born. It is as if something were crumbling,
▪ More than half of the world’s children today decaying, and exhausting itself --- while something
suffer conditions of deprivation such as else, still indistinct, were rising from the rubble. --
poverty, war, and HIV/AIDS. EVERYDAY, Vaclav Havel, Czech President and playwright
40,000 children die of preventable diseases
every day. 21
Source: Bennett, N., & Lemoine, G. (2014). What VUCA Really means for you. Retrieved from Harvard Business Review: https://hbr.org/2014/01/what-vuca-really-means-for-you
WHERE ARE WE
TODAY? Is there a way to
break the patterns
“Let us of the past and
keep tune into our
“Let us highest future
going-
return to possibility – and
run much
the order of operate from that
faster place?*
the PAST.”
than the
rest!”

NRCOnfesor*March 2023
22
Source: Bennett, N., & Lemoine, G. (2014). What VUCA Really means for you. Retrieved from Harvard Business Review: https://hbr.org/2014/01/what-vuca-really-means-for-you
 Criteria for Distinguishing Orders of Change in Problem Solving Initiatives

Second Order Third Order

Criteria First Order Change
Change Change
Desired “More (or less) of the Reform Transformation
Outcome same.”
To improve the To change the system to To address problems from a whole-
performance of the address shortcomings and
Purpose system perspective.
established system. respond to the needs of
stakeholders.
Replicates established Brings relevant stakeholders Creates a microcosm of the problem
decision marking group into the problem solving
system, with all participants coming in
Participation and power conversation in ways that
relationships. enable them to influence the on an equal footing as an issue owners
decision making process. and decision makers.
Confirms existing rules. Opens existing rules to Opens issue to creation of entirely new
Preserves the revision. Suspends ways of thinking about the issue. Promotes
established power established power transformation of relationships toward
structure and relationships; promotes
Process whole-system awareness and identity;
relationships among authentic interactions;
actors in the system. creates a space for genuine promotes examination of the deep
reform of the system. structures that sustain the system; creates
a space for fundamental system change.
23
Source: Bennett, N., & Lemoine, G. (2014). What VUCA Really means for you. Retrieved from Harvard Business Review: https://hbr.org/2014/01/what-vuca-really-means-for-you
 The Complexity GAP?
STAND-OUT CEOs:
While 8 out of 10 Navigating
anticipate Complexity Superbly
significant Complexity gap is 6%
only!
complexity ahead, * Revenue Growth
less than half (49%) was 6 times higher
feel prepared for than the rest.
expected
complexity.

NRCOnfesor*March 2023 24
Source: Bennett, N., & Lemoine, G. (2014). What VUCA Really means for you. Retrieved from Harvard Business Review: https://hbr.org/2014/01/what-vuca-really-means-for-you
Organizations are experiencing
significant upheaval:
More volatile
Deeper/faster cycles, more
risk

More uncertain
Less predictable

More complex
Multifaceted,
interconnected

Structurally
different
Sustained change

NRCOnfesor*March 2023 25
Source: Bennett, N., & Lemoine, G. (2014). What VUCA Really means for you. Retrieved from Harvard Business Review: https://hbr.org/2014/01/what-vuca-really-means-for-you
 Top external
2004 2006 2008 2010 factors?
84% - 56% say “market”
factors

33% - 39% say

“technological” factors

39% - 38% say

“macroeconomic” factors

42% - 37% say “People

Skills” factors

NRCOnfesor*March 2023 26
THE CHALLENGE IN VUCA WORLD

Organizations today must

“ Companies/organizations shift their business models—
that want to thrive in this and their leadership skills—
kind of flux need to to become “adaptive firms.”
develop a critical new Adaptive firms can adjust
capacity: the ability to and learn better, faster, and
sense and seize more economically than
opportunities as they their peers, giving them an
emerge.”1 “adaptive advantage.”1

1Jaworski,
NRCOnfesor*March
J., & Scharmer, C. (2000). Leading 2023
NRCOnfesor*March
in the Digital Economy: 2023 Opportunities. Retrieved from Presencing Institute:
Sensing and Seizing Emerging 27
https://www.presencing.com/resources/leading-digital-economy-sensing-and-seizing-emerging-opportunities
NRCOnfesor*March 2023
CYNEFIN Framework for
SENSEMAKING or “Making Sense”
ORDERED UN - ORDERED

System 1

DISORDER

System 2

System 1 thinking is fast, intuitive and automatic while Framework reproduced from Snowden
System 2 thinking is slow, analytic and structured. ... and Boone (2007)
 For complex issues, a For complicated problems,
PROBE-SENSE- where expert knowledge is
RESPOND (P-S-R) required to assess and
approach is recommended to assist, a SENSE-
ANALYZE-RESPOND
sense ‘emerging’ practice.
(S-A-R) approach is
appropriate to discover
patterns and then apply
For “chaotic” issues, where no
patterns exist, ‘just act, just do
‘Good’ practice
anything’ approach and by
ACTING-SENSING -
For simple problems can be
RESPONDING (A-S-R) to
solved by applying ‘best’
what happens, it is hoped that
something will work and that practices using a sense-
‘novel practice’ can be categorise-respond (S-
discovered ( pushing the issue back C-R) approach.
into one of the complex/ complicated/
simple domains so that further action can
be continued).

NRCOnfesor*March 2023 29
NRCOnfesor*March 2023
COMPLEX Understanding this space COMPLICATED This is the
requires us to gain multiple perspectives on the
domain of systems thinking, the
nature of the system. This is the time to “stand
learning organization, and the adaptive
still” (but pay attention) and gain new
enterprise, all of which are too often
perspective on the situation… The methods,
confused with complexity theory… This
tools, and techniques of the known (obvious)
is the domain of methodology, which
and knowable (complicated) domains do not
seeks to identify cause-effect
work here. Narrative techniques are particularly
relationships through the study of
powerful in this space
properties which appear to be
associated with qualities.

CHAOTIC The trajectory of our intervention

will differ according to the nature of the space. We
may use an authoritarian intervention to control
the space and make it knowable or known; or we SIMPLE or OBVIOUS
may need to focus on multiple interventions to known causes and effects where
create new patterns and thereby move the relationships are linear and generally
situation into the complex space. not open to dispute.
NRCOnfesor*March 2023
NRCOnfesor*March 2023 31
NRCOnfesor*March 2023
 Complex
Domain – “The Complicated
Domain of Domain - “The
Emergence” Domain of
Expertise”

Chaotic Clear
Domain – Domain –
“The Domain “The
of Rapid Domain of
Response” Best
Practice”
NRCOnfesor*March 2023 33
 NOTE: 1. learning to recognize and appreciate the
domain of un-order is liberating, because we can
stop applying methods designed for order and
instead focus on legitimate methods that work well
in un-ordered situations.

NOTE: 2. In the world of the un-ordered, every

intervention is also a diagnostic, and every
diagnostic an intervention – any act changes the
nature of the system

NRCOnfesor*March 2023
 LEADERSHIP LESSONS FROM THE MILITARY:
Taking on the VUCA world
Volatility Uncertainty Complexity Ambiguity
▪ Translate data ▪ Get fresh ▪ Develop ▪ Listen well
into information perspective collaborative
leaders
▪ Communicate ▪ Be flexible ▪ Stop seeking ▪ Think
early permanent divergently
solutions
▪ Ensure intent is ▪ Glance back, ▪ Train ▪ Set up
understood look ahead tomorrow’s incremental
NRCOnfesor*March 2023 heroes NOW
35 dividends
Source: Bennett, N., & Lemoine, G. (2014). What VUCA Really means for you. Retrieved from Harvard Business Review: https://hbr.org/2014/01/what-vuca-really-means-for-you
 The VUCA Antidote
Success Factors from Industry
Provide clear Anticipate risks but
Retain a clear direction and do not spend too Think big
vision constant much time in long- picture
messaging term strategic plans

Encourage
Capitalize on Leverage
Be curious networks rather
complexity diversity
than hierarchies

Employee Get used to being

Engagement uncomfortable!
NRCOnfesor*March 2023 36
Source: Bennett, N., & Lemoine, G. (2014). What VUCA Really means for you. Retrieved from Harvard Business Review: https://hbr.org/2014/01/what-vuca-really-means-for-you
 Different Levels of Change and
Transformation
Uncovering Creating a
existing reality new reality

Re-acting
Challenge
Response

Old Re-structuring New

structure structure
New
Re-designing
Let go! Old
processes
processes
Let
New
Old Re-framing thinking come!
thinking
Source: Scharmer
NRCOnfesor*March 2023 37
Re-generating
The leader’s interior work deals with meeting and
mastering three enemies: VOJ, cynicism, fear.

Downloading: Realizing:
reenacting habits Embodying in practices

suspension enacting
VOJ Open Mind
Seeing: Prototyping:
from outside Dialogue with the universe

Cynicism re-directing concretizing

Open Heart
Sensing: Crystallizing:
from the whole from the field of the future
Fear Open Will
letting go letting come
Co-sensing: Places of PRESENCING:
Co-creating:
shared Perception Who is my SELF?
Places of
and Seeing What is my Work?
Prototyping
Co – Presencing: Places of
See Scharmer
Common Presence and Stillness38
NRCOnfesor*March 2023
 What have we learned?:
The Complexity of the Challenge
Dynamic: Cause
and effect are Generative:
distant in space and Disruptive patterns
time of change and
innovation

Social complexity:
Different interests
and perspectives
NRCOnfesor*March 2023 39
 ▪ Counter Volatility with
Vision
▪ Meet Uncertainty with
Understanding
• React to Complexity with
Clarity
• Fight Ambiguity with
Agility
NRCOnfesor*March 2023 40
Does your SPMS
“look” for these skills?
Do your strategies Commons
allow such skills? Maker creating
Instinct
Smart Mob
Organizing
Clarity
10 Leadership
Rapid
Dilemma Skills for the prototyping
Flipping
VUCA Future Quiet
transparency

Immersive Constructive
Learning depolarizing
Bio-
NRCOnfesor*March 2023 empathy 42
What leadership do we need?
▪ Ability to think systemically and work across boundaries
with others who have different interests, values,
cultures and history
▪ Leadership skills that build trust and mutual
understanding (vs. power or authority) to gain the
cooperation of others
▪ Processes that build social capital and strong multi-
stakeholder networks.

NRCOnfesor*March 2023 43
 Courage to
Co-Create!

44
Source: Bennett, N., & Lemoine, G. (2014). What VUCA Really means for you. Retrieved from Harvard Business Review: https://hbr.org/2014/01/what-vuca-really-means-for-you
 Exercise: What is the ‘marshmallow’ in your
project? In your life? In the emerging future?

There is a marshmallow in every project! In

every team! In every organization! In every
LIFE!

NRCOnfesor*March 2023
 REFLECT: The ESSENTIAL Questions

1. What did this activity show you about yourself?

▪ Assertiveness vs. Empathy
2. What did this activity show you about working
in a team of “diverse” persons and skills? What
action did you, as individuals or as a collective,
do to bring the team to success? In the VUCA,
why is this essential?
NRCOnfesor*March 2023
The ESSENTIAL Questions:

5. How does your team behavior contribute to the

whole organization? The community? The Eco-
system?
6. In initiating change, what must you do to handle
such “marshmallows”?

7. What kind of team or work group do you build

to address the challenge of a VUCA
environment?
 the best way forward is
often to run quick
experiments so they can
RAPID
discover the hidden
PROTOTYPING!
assumptions they’re making.
Once they’ve discovered
their hidden assumptions,
they’re ready to test out
different solutions, which
leads us to . . .
NRCOnfesor*March 2023
 How do you use this “model” to build the work you
do to address the community – shareholders,
stakeholders, and stickholders?
How do you use this “model” to navigate the
VUCA world?
What ASSUMPTIONS need to be changed?

In the past year, what “prototype” have

you launched to address the VUCA world?
NRCOnfesor*March 2023
A DELIBERATE STRATEGY is An EMERGENT STRATEGY is one
one that arises from conscious, that arises from unplanned actions
thoughtful, and organized action and initiatives from within an
on the part of a business and its organization.
leadership. It’s typically ▪ the product of spontaneous
generated from a rigorous innovation, and often a direct result
analysis of data, including of the daily prioritization and
metrics such as: investment decisions made by
•Market growth individual contributors, such as
•Segment size middle managers, engineers, financial
•Customer needs staff, and salespeople.
•Competitor strengths and ▪ flexibility to adjust those goals
weaknesses and pursue other opportunities or
•Technological trajectories priorities as they emerge.
•Big organizations ▪ Usually, Start-ups
NRCOnfesor*March 2023 51
For an emergent strategy to work well, employees and
managers alike should constantly look at the periphery—
not just in the direction of the end goal.
“Very often, when a company is trying to implement a deliberate
strategy, they’re focused on their [original] goal. “On the right and on the
left, there are emergent opportunities that they don’t even see because
they’re so focused on the original goal. If you’re in a mode of emergent
strategy, yes, you have to go after something in a deliberate way. But you
have to plan on things to emerge on the right and on the left of that
which you may never have thought about before.”…
for an emergent strategy to work well, employees and managers alike
should constantly look at the periphery—not just in the direction of the
end goal.
Harvard Business School Professor Clayton Christensen in Disruptive Strategy.
NRCOnfesor*March 2023 52
How do you describe your most recent iteration of
your strategy, your SPMS? Deliberate, most likely?

What has been your emergent strategies? Is

thegrowth and development of the LROs an
“emergent” strategy?

NRCOnfesor*March 2023 53
Source: Bennett, N., & Lemoine, G. (2014). What VUCA Really means for you. Retrieved from Harvard Business Review: https://hbr.org/2014/01/what-vuca-really-means-for-you
Example of Emergent Strategy Accelerating
Growth and Development: PAYPAL
▪ Established in 1998, PayPal’s original company name was Confinity.,
created to provide security software for mobile devices, but soon
had to pivot as a result of low demand.

▪ By listening to the market and developing an emergent strategy in

1999, PayPal became what it is today—an exclusive platform for
digital payments.

▪ Another step in its emergent strategy was identifying clear

opportunities for growth as they arose. After shifting to a payment
platform, PayPal was strategically bought by eBay in 2002, making it
the most trustworthy payment method for eBay users across the
globe.
NRCOnfesor*March 2023 54
NRCOnfesor*March 2023 55
 56
Source: Bennett, N., & Lemoine, G. (2014). What VUCA Really means for you. Retrieved from Harvard Business Review: https://hbr.org/2014/01/what-vuca-really-means-for-you
 In the last strategy you have
put together – describe
what could be “emergent”?
State WHY? WHAT did you
see in the emerging future?
NRCOnfesor*March 2023 57
Source: Bennett, N., & Lemoine, G. (2014). What VUCA Really means for you. Retrieved from Harvard Business Review: https://hbr.org/2014/01/what-vuca-really-means-for-you
 58
Source: Bennett, N., & Lemoine, G. (2014). What VUCA Really means for you. Retrieved from Harvard Business Review: https://hbr.org/2014/01/what-vuca-really-means-for-you
 SO,
who moved our
“marshmallow”?
If you won’t. the VUCA
world will.
Salamat.
NRCOnfesor*March 2023 59
[A]ll decisions are about the future.”
Kenneth Boulding (1973: v)
“[T]he idea of the future being different
from the present is so repugnant … that we,
most of us, offer a great resistance to acting
on it in practice.”
One of the most important challenges we
face is to open people’s minds to the idea
that the present and the recent past may
not largely define the future.
John Maynard Keynes (1937: 13)
1. The FUTURE is plural, not singular.
Single, clear predictions give a false sense of certainty.
“Futurists believe that basing a decision on a single
prediction is like putting all your eggs in one basket”
(Bishop 1998: 40). The goal of futures thinking is to help
decisionmakers prepare for a range of plausible futures,
rather than the impossible task of making accurate long-
term predictions.
Traditional forecasting focuses on extrapolating past data to predict a single future, usually with
a sensitivity analysis in an attempt to account for uncertainty in key variables (Fig. 1). In
contrast, futures research recognizes fundamental uncertainties in key drivers of change and
the presence of “unknown unknowns” (Ilmola and Rovenskaya 2016), and explores a much
wider range of alternative futures.
United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Northern Research Station General Technical Report NRS-175 December
2017 Ten Principles for Thinking about the Future: a Primer for Environmental Professionals David N. Bengston
 Traditional Forecasting Futures Research
ONE Future MULTIPLE FUTURES

Fundamental
-10% + 10% Uncertainties

WHAT WE KNOW TODAY WHAT WE KNOW TODAY

. Adapted from Weeks et al. (2011)

 1. The FUTURE is
plural, not singular.
Across the world, change is constant
and appears to be accelerating as
digitization spreads. Decisions have to
be made ever more quickly— often
with incomplete information. Many
possible futures lie ahead, but how can
we best anticipate them and design
strategy now to future-proof the
business? Organizations need the
forethought to look for early signals
that may turn into trends and shape
the future
 1. The FUTURE is plural,
not singular.

Foresight Strategies
1. If there are many possible futures, there is no one correct attitude toward it—
multiple attitudes and perspectives are needed. To get a more complete
picture of the full range of possible futures, futurists frequently recommend
adopting multiple attitudinal lenses, such as
▪ optimistic, pessimistic, status quo, and transformational perspectives.
▪ organizational/societal, personal/individual, and technical perspectives
should be adopted to provide greater insight into technology
assessment and other futures contexts

2. Gaining insight into plural futures requires multiple theories of change.

Diverse theories of change drawn from different fields of study help generate
foresight and aid in the exploration of a wider range of possibilities.
United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Northern Research Station General Technical Report NRS-175 December
2017 Ten Principles for Thinking about the Future: a Primer for Environmental Professionals David N. Bengston
 1. The FUTURE is plural,
not singular.

3. Gaining insight into plural futures calls for the use of multiple
methods. Every method has limitations and multiple methods are
needed to shed light on different aspects of plural futures
▪ expert-based (e.g., Delphi, foresight panels) to
participatory methods involving diverse stakeholders
(e.g., futures wheels, scenario workshops),

▪ evidence-based (e.g., horizon scanning, modeling) to

methods that emphasize creativity and imagination
(e.g., wild-card brainstorming, visioning), and

▪ quantitative (e.g., cross-impact analysis, quantitative

scenarios) to qualitative (e.g., causal layered analysis,
qualitative scenarios).
 “Futurists use the concept of alternative futures
to understand how change might play out in the
future.” ~ Peter Bishop and Andy Hines (2012: 39)

2. THE FUTURE IS POSSIBLE, PLAUSIBLE, PROBABLE,

and PREFERABLE
POSSIBLE futures PLAUSIBLE futures The PROBABLE future PREFERABLE futures are
which seem highly encompass futures which considered “most concerned with what we
unlikely or “far out” most people would likely” is based on a individually or collectively
because they may consider believable and continuation of current want to happen in the
involve technology are consistent with our trends and is often future. They are explicitly
that does not current understanding of called the business-as- subjective and derive
currently exist or science, technology, and usual, baseline, or from value judgments.
extremely low social and economic “official” future. Preferable futures for an
probability events; systems. Traditional forecasting organization or
“wild cards”-low “a discernable pathway focuses on the community are often
probability but high from the present to the business-as-usual developed through a
impact future.” future based on past visioning or preferred
trend data. futuring process
 PLAUSIBLE futures
encompass futures which
The PROBABLE future
most people would
considered “most likely” is
consider believable and
based on a continuation of
are consistent with our
current trends and is often
current understanding of
called the business-as-usual,
science, technology, and
baseline, or “official” future.
PROBABLE social and economic
Traditional forecasting
systems.
focuses on the business-as-
“a discernable pathway
PREFERRED from the present to the
usual future based on past
trend data.
future.”
PLAUSIBLE PREFERABLE futures are
concerned with what we
POSSIBLE futures which
POSSIBLE individually or collectively
seem highly unlikely or
want to happen in the future.
“far out” because they
They are explicitly subjective
may involve technology
and derive from value
that does not currently
Four types of futures. exist or extremely low
judgments. Preferable futures
Adapted from Bishop and Hines (2012). for an organization or
probability events; “wild
community are often
cards”-low probability
developed through a
but high impact
visioning or preferred
futuring process
 2. THE FUTURE IS
POSSIBLE,
Foresight strategies PLAUSIBLE,
PROBABLE, and
PREFERABLE
▪ scanning broadly
▪ the use of techniques to
enhance creativity and
imagination, and
▪ participatory methods
3. THE FUTURE IS OPEN
The FUTURE is not fixed and we have
opportunities and freedom to influence the
future in a positive direction

VISIONING involves a participatory process for envisioning a

preferred future, that is, a compelling statement that a group or
Foresight organization wants to create based on shared deep values and purpose
(Bezold 2009c). According to Lippitt (1998), shared visions of the future
Strategies should entail several components: clarity, shared understanding, specific
imagery, strategic orientation, and group buyin. Images of preferred
futures are significant because they enhance options and possibilities in
the present (Slaughter 1995). Costanza (2000: 1) expressed the
importance of a positive vision of our environmental future: “The most
critical task facing humanity today is the creation of a shared vision of a
sustainable and desirable society.”
 4. THE FUTURE IS FUZZY FORESIGHT
STRATEGIES: a general
Knowledge of the future is always strategy to cope with
imperfect and severely limited , there the fuzziness of the
are no facts about the future. future is to take a
1. the nature of complex systems, 2. knowledge of the future is imperfect “learning approach,”
including their emergent nature because human perception is biased in
and sensitive dependence on many ways. Hammond et al. (1998) that is, to
initial conditions (Gleick 1987). review eight key cognitive biases that continuously explore
Emergent properties of a system affect our decisionmaking and views of
cannot be predicted from the the future. For example, recallability the future as it
parts . Sensitive dependence on bias causes us to give unwarranted
initial conditions implies that one weight to recent, dramatic events, and
unfolds and as new
may be able to predict the confirmation bias leads us to seek out information becomes
behavior of a complex or chaotic and accept information supporting our
system with a reasonable degree existing views and to discount opposing
available. Scenario
of accuracy in the short term, but information. “permanent present.” planning
not in the medium or long term.
5. THE FUTURE IS SURPRISING
Discontinuous and surprising, and even expected futures
tend to arrive in unexpected ways and with surprising
consequences . Extensive empirical research has shown that
people consistently underestimate uncertainty and the
possibility of rare events (Makridakis et al. 2010, Tversky
and Kahneman 1974)
 It is said that the present is
pregnant with the future.” ~ Voltaire
(Redman 1959: 99)
6. The future is NOT surprising.
The FUTURE contains STABILITY-REINFORCING, anti-change forces are termed “stabilities”

▪ Common stabilities include rules, customs, and traditions; physical or logistical

constraints that dampen or prevent change; ingrained patterns of behavior; and
powerful stakeholders, entrenched leaders, or others who benefit the most from the
status quo. Economic factors also frequently reinforce stability, such as a technological
innovation that is technically feasible and widely expected to have transformative
effects but proves to be too costly and is therefore never adopted (Schnaars 1989)
▪ the dynamic of “trend/countertrend,” in which trends often create pressures for their
opposite or countertrend
▪ Rising prices for a commodity create pressure to conserve the commodity or
develop alternatives, which drives prices down.
▪ Growing secularism in society may eventually produce a countertrend of
increasing spirituality as people seek to fill a void created by an emphasis on
the material world.
 ▪ The decline in the sense of community in our society
(Putnam 1995) may be offset by the countertrend of the rise
of new forms of community (Putnam and Feldstein 2004).
▪ Adoption of a new technology may be slowed or halted by a
countertrend of ongoing innovation and advances in the
existing technology that was being replaced
Foresight strategies
Identifying what has changed and what has remained the same in the
past helps us uncover patterns that may drive change in the future
▪ unsurprising constants that seem highly likely to continue no matter which
scenario comes to pass. Examples are most demographic change, growing
urbanization, economic globalization, continued loss of biodiversity.
▪ four types of predetermined elements to consider: slow changing phenomena
(e.g., the growth of populations), constrained situations (e.g., the need to suppress
wildfire in populated areas to protect human life), change that is “in the pipeline”
(e.g., a growing wave of retirements among baby boomers), and inevitable
collisions (e.g., higher concentrations of greenhouse gases leading to climate
disruption)
7. THE FUTURE IS FAST
“Almost anything can be done in twenty years[,]” according to futurist and systems scientist Earl Joseph
(quoted in Cornish [2004: 5]). It took just 4 years to build the first atomic bombs, despite many experts’
insistence that it could not be done. And it took 8 years from President Kennedy’s goal of going to the
moon to the Apollo 11 landing. Rapid shifts in social norms, attitudes, and behaviors are also possible,
such as the change in attitudes toward smoking and in smoking rates, legal acceptance of gay rights and
same-sex marriage in the United States, and possible future shifts in attitudes regarding climate change
(Ross et al. 2016

Foresight strategies
Also called environmental scanning, horizon scanning is a process for finding and
interpreting the implications of early indicators of change in the internal and
external environments of an organization or field.
“learning approach” or continuous exploration of a rapidly evolving future
8. THE FUTURE IS SLOW
powerfully shaped by slow, continuous, incremental change

Global population has been growing by just 1.18 percent annually and the rate is slowing, but that is
enough to increase from 7.3 billion today to 11.2 billion by the end of the century (United Nations
Population Division 2015); • The growth of antimicrobial resistance is slow but over time could
seriously threaten public health as the prevention and treatment of a wide range of infections become
ineffective (World Health Organization 2015); • Over the past 20 years, the slow encroachment of
development has resulted in the loss of a tenth of global wilderness, representing an area twice the
size of Alaska and about half the size of the Amazon (Watson et al. 2016). Numerous additional
examples of gradual change could be cited: aquifer depletion, loss of topsoil, infrastructure decay, and
the slow adoption of some major technologies. Perhaps the ultimate example of slow change with
massive long-term consequences is climate change, with its effects emerging gradually over many
decades

Foresight strategy “permanent engagement” strategy

to make slow change more visible,
continuously discussed, and acted
upon
 9. THE FUTURE IS ARCHETYPAL
Four general categories, which he calls the four generic futures: Continue, Collapse, Discipline,
and Transformation (Dator 2009).
CONTINUED GROWTH, is an TRANSFORMATION is
image of the future based on an organizations, Third, the an archetype of the future
extrapolation of current trends and communities,
DISCIPLINE that is usually “high tech”
expectations. cultures, nations, and
future is an image but could also be of a
▪ most common of the four civilizations
of a society that is “high spirit” variety,
archetypes because it is the COLLAPSE regularly
“official” future of all tightly structured ▪ transformation driven
due to a variety of around a set of by significant shifts in
governments, educational
factors fundamental values and culture. In
systems, and corporations.
▪ Continued economic growth is ideals that could the high-tech version of
typically the focus of this include the Transformation
archetype. environmental, archetype, the power
▪ expressions of this future which spiritual, religious, of exponential growth
attempt to build a case for the political, or in technology
inevitability of continued growth
cultural values. transforms every
and prosperity, such as
Diamandis and Kotler (2012), aspect of life.
Kahn (1982), and Ridley (2010
10. The future is inbound.
“Our personal and organizational futures are shaped by two sets of
forces: change that happens to us (from the external world beyond
our control, which we call ‘inbound’ change) and change that we
create ourselves (based on our decisions and actions, which we call
‘outbound’ change)”
Individuals and organizations are often caught off-guard by inbound
change because we focus most of our attention on what is occurring
within our organization or field.
▪ Digital outsiders Napster (launched in 1999) followed by Apple® iTunes®
(debuted in 2004) transformed the way we share and listen to music and
disrupted the music industry with inbound change. • Few public school
administrators in the United States in the early 1990s imagined the
competition they would face from “outsiders” such as charter schools,
online schools, privately run for-profit schools, and vouchers (Fang 2014).
•Electric vehicles? Logistics?
 Foresight X Design In YOUR
Strategy*

* McKInsey & Company. Futures of ASIA: Design X Foresight Apprpoach. December 2021.
1. Futures thinking creates value.
Foresight and futures thinking has created significant value for organizations as
they seek to futureproof their businesses. In one longitudinal study, “future-
prepared” firms, defined as those with a corporate foresight practice, posted 33
percent higher profitability than the average company and 200 percent higher
growth.

2. Two cohorts may become key consumers: Gen Z and seniors

3. Generation Z will change consumption patterns.

4. Signals and trends inform future scenarios.

Spotting and tracking peripheral changes and signals can focus attention on
possible innovations before they become obvious trends.

* McKInsey & Company. Futures of ASIA: Design X Foresight Apprpoach. December 2021.
 Cluster of Signals and Trends

1. Commerce and economics. Consumers develop clear intentions around where and
from whom they buy products and services.
2. Consumer values. Asian consumers are becoming more comfortable seeking digital
solutions for maintaining and establishing relationships with their relatives
and others.
3. Platform landscape. Consumers trust data and technology on platforms to give
them a seamless flow of experience and support their decisions.
4. New lifestyle levers. Consumers are becoming more adaptive, diversifying their
daily routines in response to demographic and economic shifts.
5. Macro-level levers. Large-scale change can occur with a push from local authorities
and pull from shifts in the international layer.
6. Accessibility and labor. Consumers can overcome physical distance and difficulties
with technology. Meanwhile, a lack of labor in certain types of jobs has not
intensified.
5. Finding: Generation Z will change consumption patterns.
New forms of ownership:
▪ many Asian consumers seek to fulfill their needs within their given budget by considering
alternatives to traditional ownership of goods, such as rental, subscription, and secondhand
goods.
▪ consumption is shifting from physical to digital goods, and dual physical-digital identities are
emerging.
▪ systemic shifts are expected in how people work, views of government, and new societal rules
and systems supporting such change. These changes will open up new opportunities for
companies—Ex. scope to develop new retail experiences blending the engagement stimulated
by physical shopping with the huge range of choice offered by e-commerce. Ex. insurance
companies and financial services players to develop products that support shared ownership
of property.

6. Finding: Seniors will become a major market in Asia, especially Japan.

The population of Asian seniors, defined as individuals aged 60 and over, is expected to grow by
more than 40 percent between 2020 and 2030
▪ consumption could potentially increase twice as fast as the consumption of the rest of the
population in the period to 2030. In Japan, seniors could contribute to more than 60 percent of
overall consumption growth.
Foresight amplifies (x) the impact of design

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Northern Research Station General Technical Report NRS-175 December
2017 Ten Principles for Thinking about the Future: a Primer for Environmental Professionals David N. Bengston
Foresight amplifies (x) the impact of design
Foresight amplifies (x) the impact of design
Foresight strategy
Contextual Environment

Working Environment

Your
Organization/
Issue
Constituencies
Customers
Social Driving Forces Communities
Technological Competitors
Economic Partners
Driving Forces Regulators
Environment
Political
Generation Z
I love having several I’m proud and happy
scenarios, based on identities because it to find ways to own
gives me opportunities and experience things
importance of to look different as well I want to obtain and
individual versus as behave differently.”
Irene, 27
do.” -Dimas

community values
and digital versus
physical experiences

“I’m proud of my village and

“I would like to show my what I do. I want to pay my
younger family members community back for raising
what’s possible and me in the world of anyaman
achievable.” business.”
Scenarios for
seniors in I would like to “I want my children to
think of me as someone
Japan, based practice peace, so I
can thrive in my they can rely on instead
on importance retirement.” of a burden.”

of individual
versus
community
values and
digital versus
physical “Rediscovering a place “I’m busy, but it’s quite
experiences where my skills are fulfilling to meet new
valued and useful again people, learn new things,
means a lot to me. and grow as a
professional at this age.”
Foresight amplifies (x) the impact of design
Design Thinking
As a style of thinking, it is
generally considered to be the
ability to combine EMPATHY for
the context of a problem,
CREATIVITY in the generation of
insights and solutions, and the
RATIONALITY to analyze and fit
the solution to the context.
-Tim Brown, IDEO
 Design Thinking

Design Thinking for Social

Innovation
By working closely with the clients
and consumers, design thinking
Nonprofits are beginning to use
allows high-impact solutions to
design thinking as well to develop social problems to bubble up from
better solutions to social problems.
Design thinking crosses the below rather than being imposed
traditional boundaries between from the top.
public, for-profit, and nonprofit
sectors. By working closely with the Initiatives falter because they are not based on the
clients and consumers, design client’s or customer’s needs and have never been
thinking allows high-impact solutions prototyped to solicit feedback. Even when people do go
to bubble up from below rather than into the field, they may enter with preconceived notions
being imposed from the top. of what the needs and solutions are. This flawed
approach remains the norm in both the business and
social sectors.
Foresight amplifies (x) the impact of design Design Thinking

There are three spaces to keep in

mind: INSPIRATION,
IDEATION, and IMPLEMENTATION.
Think of inspiration as the
problem or opportunity that
motivates the search for
solutions; ideation as the process
of generating, developing, and
testing ideas;
and implementation as the path
that leads from the project stage
into people’s lives.
Foresight amplifies (x) the impact of design

What would success look like to

you and your organization? You
and your organization and your
community?

To answer this question -- Bring a picture

or two to our session on Friday.