84 84d 2) CHAPTER 8 FUTURE LAND USE PLAN AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK FUTURE URBAN DEVELOPMENT VISIONS AND STRUCTURE Possible Future Development Patterns As described before, the existing physical urban structure of Metro Cagayan de Oro is a necklace of beads pattem focused to the metropolitan center, Cagayan de Oro City, This urban structure is giving rise to traffic congestion on the lligan-Cagayan-Butuan Highway and on streets within the central part of Cagayan de Oro City. For dealing with this problem, "Cagayan de Oro-ligan Corridor Highway Expansion Project" is promoted by DPWH and LGUs. This project intends to widen the existing highway from two to four lanes (excluding the existing four-tane section within Cagayan de Oro City) and to construct new bridges Parallel to the existing two-lane bridges. When this project is completed, the traffic conditions of sections Tagoloan-Jasaan and Opol-Gitagum will be greatly improved. However, the road condition between Opol and Tagoloan (mainly within Cagayan de Oro City) is remained as it is, and traffic condition there will be worsened due to the general increasing number of vehicles, housing developments in Opol and the development of PIE-MO in Tagoloan and Villanueva. For dealing with the existing and future urban problems anticipated, the following three development pattems are presented as shown in Figure 8.1-1. a. Local Community Development Pattern 'b. Coastal Urban Corridor Development Pattern ©, Piedmont Urban Corridor Development Pattern Local Community Development Pattern This development pattem intends every city/municipality to make efforts independently to improve the road network under its jurisdiction and to render better public services to the local residents. All barangays are connected with the poblacion or the market place by a paved road network, By-pass construction will be carried out where necessary. Public service facilities with enough manpower and equipment are located at main barangay centers. For the inter-city/municipality transportation, the completion of “Cagayan de Oro-lligan Corridor Highway Expansion Project” is inevitable. Cagayan de Oro City will make efforts to complete the planned cily road network and construct the bridges, in order to alleviate the present and anticipated traffic congestion within the City. Part Road Network Development Master Plan for Metro Cagayan de Oro —145—SALLVNYALTV FUNLONULS NVEYN FYNLN b | NyaLL¥d LNaWd013A30 wOdrNNOD NvauN LNOWGald savvonnoanwanogowan —-— ovo wey —— vara 7/ vane wausraw @ wamorsuno. WJ vainscene woxann0s © weno wana @ —146— | NYaLLvd LNaWOTANaG J0aRM4OD NYBUN TW1SVOD NYaLLVd LNWdOT3NI0 ALINNAWVOD 17907Other municipalities try to attract industrial or commercial investments, intending to expand job opportunities of local residents and to reduce dependence on Cagayan de Oro City, . 2) Coastal Urban Corridor Development Pattern This development pattern is to develop a coastal urban corridor between Opol and Tagoloan through Cagayan de Oro City. The corridor will be separated into two parts: one between Opol coastal zone and Cagayan Base Port (West Coastal Corridor), the other between Cagayan Base Port and Mindanao Container Terminal (MCT) in Tagoloan (East Coastal Corridor). The objectives of this development pattern is to develop a new coastal tourist zone facing the Majacalar Bay with a tree-planted wide boulevard, such as the area along Roxas Boulevard in Manila. This will contribute to attract tourists and to alleviate traffic congestion on the existing iligan-Cagayan-Butuan Highway. Along this corridor, high-rise condominiums, hotels, restaurants, shopping centers, convention facilities, etc. will be located. The planned boulevard will be forced to go around the existing industrial firms with private port, such as Del Monte Philippines, but by connecting with the present Highway it can introduce traffic going to and from the CBD and the Base Port of Cagayan de Oro City. The Metro Cagayan de Oro is not rich enough in natural resources to attract domestic and foreign tourists. However, by developing a new coastal urban corridor, Cagayan de Oro City will become more equipped as a convention city to attract business and tourism customers, and its economic effects will spread ‘over the other municipalities. In addition, the traffic conditions between Opol and Tagoloan will be improved greatly 3) Piedmont Urban Corridor Development Pattern This alternative intends to construct a new highway at the piedmont areas for the alleviation of present and future traffic congestion within Cagayan de Oro City and to guide the urban development in Cagayan de Oro City, Opol and Tagoloan. The new highway will be constructed from the boundary between Opol and El Salvador to the PIE-MO in Tagoloan and Villanueva, passing the south of urbanizing areas of Opol and the piedmont areas of Cagayan de Oro City. This highway will also contribute to reduce the travel time to and from PIE-MO, residential areas in Opol and the new Laguindingan Airport. According to the Comprehensive Land Use Plan (CLUP) of Cagayan de Oro City, many "Planned Unit Development" areas and "Future Development” areas are designated along the probable route of this highway. By coordinating the road construction with the urban development, it is expected to realize orderly developed urban areas equipped with commercialiinstitutional centers and ‘open paces in the piedmont areas of the City. In Opol, a new urban core shall be developed for the residents coming into the municipality. In the PIE-Mo, the Part-D Road Network Development Master Plan for Metro Cagayan de Oro —147—road network is not yet established. Considering the future industrial development, operation of MCT and residential development, it is required to establish an adequate road network connecting to the proposed new highway. 8.1.2 Selection of Future Urban Development Pattern The presented three urban development patterns have their respective reasons for being. In this section, an evaluation result of them is shown. From the standpoint of project formation intending to achieve the respective future urban Pattern under the limited financial capacity, the evaluation is carried out based on the project evaluation method used in the Project Cycle Management (PCM), which is adopted by JICA. Table 8.1-1 shows the evaluation result TABLE 8.1-1 EVALUATION OF THREE URBAN DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS Tocal Gommunty ‘Coastal Urban Goridor Fiecnont Urban Coridor Develogment Patio Development Patem Development Patem Felovanee In acoordance with tho polities Tor [accordance win the poly Tor | In accordance withthe poly Tor poverty alleviation and improvement | upiing the atractveress of | imoovement of road network as of ving standards in nal | CDO Cty as business and | a whole in Metro Cagayan de Oro communes tours canter and improvement of tac condons ‘hore Cocivenass | Tis necessany foreach LGU tohave | itis necessary for O00 Giy wo | The ave some seeds such as ‘encugh cdminisrave, nancial end | take leadership for gong | the version roed in COO Cy. tectnical capecty for the road | consonsus among relied | Along the proposed route, Gy ‘onstrion and creation of jeb | agencies andthe pve sector | has designaled many PUD and ‘opportunites FD amas, Wren road consincton end PUDIFD area evelopment is coorinaled, the projet purpose canbe achioved. Biiceney | The tal lnglh of the oads tobe | ong coast edanaton is] The lengh of roads 1o be Improved Is long and costs for| necessary Economic eticts | consiucled is long end ‘acs wil amount to large event at | might bo large, but the costs wil | topography requires long and he minimum slendard Sof alsobe large. high bridges at saver points. necessary Inpus are too much for So, forthe achievernent of the (geting expected cuts, ‘objectives iis imporant fo select the cheapest route for the highway. Tipact Dect impact of by-pass | Doct impact of the road | Dect impacls of the road construction is exclusion of through | consucton i alloviaton of tac | construction aro aviation of trafic om the municipal center and | congestion within CDO Gi. | trae congestion within CDO City rect impact of improvement of | Dovelopment of coastal touist | and reduction of travel timo to ‘municipal atefal roads is se in | zone wil create employment and | and. trom PIE-MO, residential Ureneport condtions of nal | havo economic impacts on the | areas In Opol and the New communites to and irom the | LGUs in Metro CDO. Laguincngan Appt. municipal canler The efots: made Development of | commercial by LGUs for the atalomont of tho ‘nstitieral centers. along. the goal wil have pola, ‘oad wil contbute to raise the inattaionaly, socaly, economically convenience of new residents and technically good and important of suburban areas. impact on be ol community. ‘Sustanabiy | In vor for LGUs to Koop up win | Alor be consnsus fe clad | The natoral ord _promnal the capaci for conducing. such | for the development, relaied | goverment agencies and read tind. of projets, tinanciat and | govomment agencies and pale | LUs wil coorcnate each othor tecuical suppas by rata | sector wil cooréale each che | basede he ony nies national end provincial agencies ar | base onthe orinay es. macosary. PartD Road Network Development Master Plan for Metro Cagayan de Oro —148—82 8.24 822 8.2.3 According to the evaluation table, the "Piedmont Urban Corridor Development Pattern" will be comparatively easier to realize and will give benefits to the areas where traffic is currently congested and it will become more severe in future. So it was selected as the best one for the future target. FUTURE LAND USE PLAN Institutional System of Land Use Planning in the Philippines Pursuant to the Local Government Code of 1991, cities and municipalities shall continue to prepare their respective comprehensive land use plans (CLUPs) enacted through zoning ordinances. The Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board (HLURB) is the government's regulatory body responsible for land use and housing. It is mandated to formulate land use planning guidelines and standards. A city/municipality with rural areas within its jurisdiction prepares its CLUP (including General Land Use Plan and Urban Land Use Plan) based on the guidelines of HLURB. The general land use plan covers the whole area of the LGU. The urban land use pian is for the built-up area (the poblacion and its vicinity). The formulated CLUP is translated into a new zoning ordinance of the LGU. The zoning ordinance is enforced through the approval of the Planning Office of the province and the signature of the HLURB. Land Use Plan for 2010 Cagayan de Oro City and municipalities comprised in Metro Cagayan de Oro have already prepared their CLUPs based on the ordinary legal and institutional procedures above mentioned. Figure 8.2-1 shows an integrated illustration of these CLUPs. Land Use Plan for 2022 Figure 8.2-2 shows a land use plan for Metro Cagayan de Oro for 2022 based ‘on the projected population and employment distribution described in the following sections. For the formulation of the land use plan, the targeted urban development pattem of the "Piedmont Urban Corridor Development Pattern” is basically considered. Part. Road Network Development Master Plan for Metro Cagayan de Oro —149—LNs 1-28 SUNSIS Ea 0102 : dv ASNGNV1 34 —150—VW ASNGNVISYNLNS 2-78 SUNOS ELE -151—83 8.3.1 FUTURE SOCIO-ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK Population Future population projection for Metro Cagayan de Oro is carried out as a revision of the NSO projections (Medium Series) for the national, provincial and city/municipality levels based on the 1995 Census. The medium series (moderate pace of fertility decline) assumes that the Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) = 1 will be realized in 2020. Projection results are shown in Table 8.3-1 TABLE 8.3-1 FUTURE POPULATION PROJECTION BY CITY/MUNICIPALITY at Rarual Raeae Gon RS TO] 010-18] 2016 2] 200, O10. Wz Pi TEVA BETS: STO os RAITT 2 Tet % 7 i i T7135 i 7 i m 7 Teeeloan ‘t exa7f — 750n1) — a5.s6 3.4 vane my ite] state] atc] 3 295) 237] asaan 431 Se] est] s7041] 204 227] tz pat 4321) ea7a 772 saz6i] Saad gram] aase] sa a0] 244] 212] 1.65) Auli ‘2ao] arava 29.804) 31635] 1.59) 134 Laguicingan 19,739] 0) zoe] ate] 20e] 150) 1.4) 4 sea arse] saeco ta] tr ta 4) Fejctons a the national to provincial ove fo 2020 are based on tho revision eeu ofthe NSIS "1995 Gonsus- Ba00d Nations, Repona and Provincia Posen Pojactons’ taking ilo account of ro ress cf 2000 Census. 2) From 2020 to 2022, he changing tends fom 2015 to 2020 er extended, 9) Preto atthe ctytnuricpalty lav! to 2010 are based en the revision resus of ie NSO' “1665 Census- ‘Based CiyAnicpally Popuaon Projections, tang nfo account oa reut of 2000 Census. 4) From 2010 to 2022 the changing vends ofthe percentages othe prov pects fram 200010 2010 "a exe and app. For the preparation of CLUP, cities/municipalities adopted the constant Population growth rate method based on their respective population growths during the 1990s. Accordingly, the projected future population in this Study is lower than those used in CLUPs. The future populations of city/municipalities are broken down to the traffic zones, considering the past trend and population density, The results are ‘shown in Figure 8.3-1. Part-D Road Network Development Master Plan for Metro Cagayan de Oro —152—nee wn F io) wx wor 00 aT hour 3NOZ AG NOLLWINdOd FUNNY 1-e'8 SUNOS =153—83.2 GRDP ‘The GROP of Region X has steadily grown during the past three years after the financial crisis with an annual average growth rate of 4.33%, considerably higher growth rate than the GDP. This is mainly attributed to the rapid recovery and further growth in the agriculture sector as well as the manufacturing sector including agro-industries. As described in Chapter 1, Region X re-integrated the Province of Lanao del Norte including lligan City in 2001. For the future projection of GRDP of Region X, however, the area composed of four provinces. ‘of Bukidnon, Camiguin, Misamis Occidental and Misamis Oriental (including Cagayan de Oro City) is assumed to be a virtual Region X. According to the Northern Mindanao Medium Term Regional Development Plan, 2002-2004, the region's development effort will be focused on the industry, ‘supported by agriculture, and tourism. It may have positive influences on the service sectors. On the other hand, the Region's economy is inevitably depending on the national economic growth, since the domestic market has the predominant share in these sectors. In November 2001, the National Economic Development Authority (NEDA) Published the Medium Term Development Plan for 2001 - 2004, including the Philippines economic growth targets till the year 2008, which were recently revised slightly downward based on the actual economic growth rate in the year 2001. Table 8.3-2 shows the GDP projection for the coming 20 years by making use of the revised target growth rates developed by NEDA. For the years from 2001 to 2004, NEDA has projected the annual economic growth as 4.3%, 5.2% and 5.5%. According to the latest National Accounts of the Philippines published by National Statistical Coordination Board (NSDB), the actual economic growth in 2002 was 4.56%, which was slightly higher than the NEDA's projection. Therefore, the NEDA's projection for the years 2003 and 2004 seems to be attainable target, even though the growth rate is increasing year by year. In the long run, however, it may be difficult to keep high economic growth continuously, judging from the past trend during the last two decades: only 1% for the 1980's and 3.3% for 1990's in terms of average annual growth rate. PartD Road Network Development Master Plan for Metro Cagayan de Oro 154—TABLE 8.3-2 GDP PROJECTION (AT 1985 PRICES) =a ia 2S ee Steel as as Taya fet | sear a) su sor sss] in| cs] cof snl sof | lan i Soe bom fs == 3 Ro | se se ss se atm] sl ne] oo] oe] fo] 2) Le | ma ls la 2S 3 CY oe) a aa one] ef 4 i" sale : ae a= 3 fr maz el eee re ee can] sof ol : alae Nagra tT at ton kas pathy NDA TSU Tae. Accordingly, the growth rates by industry for 2003-2004 projected by NEDA are employed as a high case for the years 2005 ~ 2022. As a low case, the growth rate is assumed to eventually approach to the average growth rate in the past 10 years. AAs for the GROP of the Region X, the above-mentioned Medium Term Regional Development Pian, 2002-2004 (MTRDP 2002-2004) sets target growth rates by sector for 2002, 2003 and 2004 as shown in Table 8.3-3, Based on these target growth rates, a high case using the highest growth rates by sector and a low case using the lowest growth rates are prepared for the period 2002-2004. The average of two cases is considered as the medium case. The total of GVAs by sector (GROP) of this medium case occupies 4% of GDP projected for the period 2002-2004, almost the same share of 3.9% during the past three years. Accordingly, GROP of Region X is assumed to keep this share after 2005 (see Table 8.3-4), Table 8.3-5 shows the results of projected GROP of Region X until 2022. As a result, the GRDP of Region X is expected to grow from about 39 billion pesos in 2001 to 122 billion pesos as the high growth case and 89 billion pesos as the low growth case in the year 2022. ‘TABLE 8.3.3 TARGET GROWTH RATES BY SECTOR, 2002-2004 ‘Actual 2001 72002 2004 [Average Primary 8a 3055 6065 | 5566 [Secondary 3B 4045 S055 | 572 [Tertiary a7 5080 7080 | 60-70 Total 50 3055 8065 | 5580 ‘Sows: MTRDP 2002-2008 PartD Road Network Development Master Plan for Metro Cagayan de Oro —155—‘TABLE 8.3-4 SHARE OF GRDP OF REGION X TO GDP Tos] 1909 | 2000] 2007 | a0 | 2008 Panay [53%] 45%] 57m] 53%] 53%] Sam) [Secondary | 35%) saw] 37H] 38x] sax] EH) Teiary SER_SH%| sae] Sau] Save] 3am] Toet_[ 3%] 38H] 35%] aoe] —FoM] adm ‘Source: NSCB, Study Team ‘TABLE 8.3.6 PROJECTED GROP OF REGION X (AT 1985 PRICES) (OP Glencoe ‘eae So Rab 6 ct [ ae aang mk a0i0 aa [wor fore [cos Jue re] a] sf ca ft os] seu] sol EE @ 3 i ‘el on) 12922 19387 x 1 13 With regard to the provincial GRDP, there is no published data available. Assuming that the labor productivity is proportionally reflecting the average income level, the GROP of the Province of Misamis Oriental is estimated as shown in Table 8.3-6, where the medium economic growth rates by sector of the Region X are employed for the future projection. ay ard ssc) wel = igeses ts ‘Pat Te guest end 0a ace, ese mae waa cha wey NEDA ed Teepe, faa & $15 § 218 § Sle & ale § TES Ege ES TES & g bag - zeae alg 28 S16 6 S18 & GIS § 8 a8 ssaleasleeslags [£8 S18 8 81s § Sls | Consequently, the GRDP of Misamis Oriental will increase from 18,451 million pesos in 2001 to 29,523 million pesos in 2010 and 55,804 million pesos in 2022 in terms of 1985 prices. The per capita GROP will grow approximately 1.3 times the current value in 2010 and 2.0 times in 2022, ‘TABLE £.3-6 GROP OF THE PROVINCE OF MISAMIS ORIENTAL (AT 1985 PRICES) CROP nifon pases erage Annual Growth Feta] Socser_ [om [Aine [2005 | 208 | AOAO | OE [OH Wo] =O 06 -OH| 0F 1] 10 rey] 208 end ey 3 ay 4a 2 e Secondary] 7.603] 7.503] 7,983] 8502) 12.476| 25,104] 25 69) [Tertiary | arta|_9.172\_ 9759] 10.423] 14.596) 27:39] 5: 57|_ 54) Total | 451] 86| 7,772] 21,04) 75e SoHo] —1of 6 355: [Fenulaion ooo _| 1.1611 1.191] 12201 1259 t4ae] 1756] 26 26 251 23117] [Per Capa d (pescs) | 15,807] 15652] 16,180] 16905) 20631] 31.707] 151 34 aol a5 a7] PartD Road Network Development Master Plan for Metro Cagayan de Oro —156—in milion pesos 0,000 0,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 ° FIGURE 8.3.2 FUTURE TREND OF PROVINCIAL GROP BY SECTOR 8.3.3 Employment Based on the projected provincial GRDP, population, labor force participation tates, employment rates and labor productivity by sector, future employment by sector at the provincial level is first estimated. Then, it is broken down to the city/municipality level considering the ratios of city/municipal employment by sector to that of the province on residence base. Applying the ratios of employment on workplace base to that on residence base obtained from 2000 Census, the employment on workplace base is estimated. The results are shown in Figure 8.3-3. Part-D Road Network Development Master Plan for Metro Cagayan de Oro —157—40,00) 2009 ferred lmsecondary lapeinsey pol Laguindingan c= = FIGURE 8.3-3 FUTURE NO. OF EMPLOYED PERSONS BY SECTOR (Workplace Base), METRO CDO Part:D Road Network Dovelopment Mastor Plan for Metro Cagayan de Oro —158—Employment by traffic zone is estimated based on the following assumptions: @. The number of employed persons in the primary sector on workplace base is the ‘same as that on residence base. b. Employment of the primary sector will reduce paraltel to reduction in agricultural tand barangay level service (for example, bakeries in the secondary sector and sari-s: store in the tertiary sector) and city/municipality level and above 4. The barangay level employment on workplace base is the same as that on residence base. 8. The secondary sector employment at the city/municipality level is divided into two categories: construction and manufacturing (mining and electricigas/water are negligible). f. Employment in the construction industry Is distributed to the poblacion and ‘commercial zones. g. Employment in the manufacturing industry is distributed to the industrial zones. h. The tertiary sector employment at the city municipality level is distributed to the poblacion, commercial/institutional zones, The results are shown in Figure 8.3.4 PartD Road Network Development Master Plan for Metro Cagayan de Oro —159—3NOZ AG ANSWAOTANA SUNLNS Fe FUND! 3NOZ Ad INANAO a BINNS (O80 30 NVAVOWS ONIN —160—8.3.4 Vehicle Ownership Projection Future vehicle ownership is estimated by using the relationship between family income and vehicle ownership, which has been already explained in Chapter 1. Future family income growth can be obtained by using the growth rate in the per capita GRDP of Region X and the changes in the number of household members. As a result, the number of vehicles in the Metro Cagayan de Oro is forecasted to. grow 1.97 times the current number of vehicles in 2010 and 2.89 times in 2022. Therefore, the vehicle ownership will increase from 33 vehicles /1000 persons in 2001 to 48 vehicles/1000 persons in 2010 and 55 vehicles/1000 persons in 2022. It indicates that the vehicle ownership will be one vehicle per 14 persons in Motro Cagayan de Oro and one vehicle per 1.8 persons in Cagayan de Oro City in 2022. TABLE 8.3-7 FUTURE VEHICLE OWNERSHIP IN METRO CAGAYAN DE ORO 73007 2010 202 [CiyiMunicipaity | Nomberet | _vanielear [xz of | Vehicle? | Number of [Veneer ve l1000 Person Vehicles {1000 Person _vehicies [1000 Persons [Cagayan de Ore Cry 48.2) 37.847] Co 699] [FecoI0an 54 640 1044 1.433] 166] Ivitanueva 2335 33] 509 wea] 4.017 21.9] \Jasaan 23 ES) 768 145] 1,500 230) Jopor 1,366} srs] 3,182 s24) 84] 524] Ei Salvador 2a al aa] weal 1,254 22.7] |Aubijic 179 77] 389 14. 24 193] Laguindingan 104 10.5 427 212] 652] 232] IGitzoum +04 72| 268] 16.) 437 23.9) Total 2787 32.6] aa a83] 48.2] 65,763] Ba] ‘Note: Excluding vehicles for hire and motorcyclestrcycies Part Road Network Development Master Plan for Metro Cagayan de Oro —161—CHAPTER 9 TRAFFIC DEMAND FORECAST 9.1 DEMAND FORECAST MODELS 9.1.1. Traffic Generation/Attraction Models After examining various explanatory variables, the most appropriate ones were selected. Consequently, the traffic generation/attraction models were established as follows: TABLE 91-1 GENERATION / ATTRACTION MODELS Generation/ Attraction Models Person Trips Gi, Al= aXi + abi Where Gi, Ai: Trip Generation/Attraction in Zone i Xi: Total Employment at Working Place in Secondary and Tertiary Sectors in Zone i Di: Dummy Variable ax 3.649 az 103,600 R®: Multiple Correlation Coefficiont: 0.935 Cargo Movement | Gi, Al=a,xi+a,Di Where Gi, Ai: Cargo Generation/Attraction in Zone i Xi: Total Employment at Working Place in Secondary and Tertiary Sectors in Zone | Di: Dummy Variable ax: 0.04876 az 376.9 R®: Multiple Correlation Coefficient: 0.982 9.1.2 Trip Distribution Model As a trip distribution model, the gravity model was employed, taking into account that ‘the current distribution pattern among zones will remain in the future. Simultaneously, new linkage pattern was created reflecting the development of new growth centers located along new highways. The gravity model is expressed by the following formula: Tij = K « Gi*Aj/dil’ - exp(DMge) Where Tij: Person Trip or Cargo Volume between Zone i and Zone j Gi: Person Trip or Cargo Volume Generation in Zone i Aj: Person Trip or Cargo Volume Altraction in Zone | dij: Travel Time Distance between Zone i and Zone j ‘Mga: Generation & Attraction Magnitudes (-1 or +1) Part.D (Metro Cagayan do Oro) —163—K. a, B, y, D: parameters as shown in the following table R® Multiple Correlation Coefficients 0.978 0.844 O61 0.808 Passengers Cargo 9.1.3, Modal Split Model ‘As already explained in Chapter 2 of Part A, the modal split between private vel and public transport is determined by the vehicle ownership and trip production rate per vehicle in the Metro Cagayan de Oro. Accordingly, the total number of future person trips by private vehicles is obtained by the following formula: XvEVereN Where Xv: Total Number of Person Trips by Private Vehicles \V: Total Number of Private Vehicles Trip Production Rate per Private Vehicle (= 3.73) N: Average Vehicle Occupancy (= 2.52 persons/vehicle) ‘The modal split between bus and jeepney was estimated by using the relationship between zones i and zone j in distance, calculated on the basis of the present OD matrices. Figure 9.1-1 represents the modal share of public transport modes. 100% 80% a Pee-EEeeEEEEEEe g + Jeep B 60% Prey 3 ve —s—Bus 2 40% 2 20% | — 0% <10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100< km FIGURE 9.1-1 MODAL SHARE OF JEEPNEY AND BUS TRIPS TO TOTAL PUBLIC TRANSPORT TRIPS Par. (Metro Cagayan do Oro) —164—9.2 FUTURE TRAFFIC DEMAND ‘The future traffic demand is estimated by using the forecast models elaborated in the previous section, The larget years are assumed as 2010, 2016, and 2022. 9.2.1 Passenger Trip (1) Total Demand The future passenger trips related to the Metro Cagayan de Oro Area were estimated as shown in Table 8.2-1. The total passenger demand is forecasted to grow as much as 2.34 times during the coming two decades from 2.12 million trips in 2003 to 3.00 million trips in 2010, 3.82 million trips in 2016, and 4.95 million trips in 2022. Cagayan de Oro City will be functioning as the center of the Metro Cagayan de Oro Area in the future as well. The share of Cagayan de Oro City related trips to total trip production in Metro Cagayan de Oro will slightly decrease in the future, but will be continuously predominant, and making up about 90% of the total trips in the area even in 2022. It is also noted that among others, Tagoloan, Villanueva and Laguindingan show high growth during the same period. More than triple of the current demand will be expected, and it is owing to the Mindanao Intemational Container Port (MICP) in Tagoloan, a Phividec Industrial Estate in Villanueva, In addition, the rapid increase in Laguindingan by 2010 is due to transfer of alrport related traffic demand from existing airport to new airport expected to be opened by 2010. Figure 9.2-1 shows the growth of trip generation by integrated zone. TABLE 9.21 PASSENGER TRIPS IN METRO CAGAYAN DE ORO AREA canes Pasa Ti (00 pecan), Gn Ralo—[ freare Gon | 2003 [ “00 _ [ais Ta | oo | ove | oxi | 032 ‘Cagayan de Oro 199s] 27035) 34021] 4acos] 139 230 49% | 4.5% “Tagotan wos} 79] a2} 57] ae | 3a | 85% | eam vitenueva sos} 197) 24s] aa} tse | aie | 29m | 62m Jacaan ws! a9] go] 22] tee | 268 | 75m | sam p01 vo) sa) 18) gaz) 16s | 2a | 75%] som Salvador ws| 212) ea] as] ize | as | az | ate ‘Aubipd re} sa} a0} sal ize | 199 | 4am | 37% Laguinaingan as} m2| sa} ers] 390 | 732 | asm | tn0% Geog s6| 133/166] 2os| ass | 2 | 65% | 45% Wetro Cogayon de Gro | 70888) 2067| 3693.4) 47905| 1a1_| 221 | si | 6m ‘ternal Arca mal wo2) za] s7[ 139 | 227 | 40m | 4am Tota 2ios| 2969] 3ea07[ agse3| am | 294 | sam | 46m (2) Transport Mode The passenger trips by transport mode in the Metro Cagayan de Oro Area are shown in Table 9.2-2. The share of private vehicles is almost constant, due to rapid increase of total passenger trips which will not be handled by just only the increase of Private car ownership. Therefore, increase of passenger demand of first decade will be handled by public mode, such as jeepney and bus, then after economic growth are achieved, share of private vehicles will Increase gradually. Pert-D (Metro Cagayan de Oro) —165—3NOZ GALVYOFINI AG HLMOND dl¥L UIONASS¥d 1-2°6 SUNOS —166—TABLE 9.22 PASSENGER TRIP BY TRANSPORT MODE ‘Mode Trips (000)| _% | Trips (000); % | Trips ('000)}% | Trips (000}] % ravens] se2] za] se] 98] tora] aa] oma] ao veer | tatiz] 7s] azrs7| 759] 2gsra| mal aems| ma be suo] 43| imi] 42] 07] 39| soo] _ 97 Tent | ~zuz0s! —ian0] 269] soon] an7| soon] aoees to (3) Desired Line of Passenger Trips The desired line of passenger trips in 2022 is shown in Figure 9.2-2, which represents a quite similar pattern of 2003, except traffic demand from/to the New Cagayan de Oro (Laguindingan) Airport. ‘The predominant passenger movement is still found among the sub-district zones inside the Cagayan de Oro City. For instance, traffic demand crossing the Cagayan de Oro River will become around 240,000 pcu per day in 2022, compare to the present condition of around 100,000 peu per day. Although the growth rate in the Cagayan de Oro City will be lower than the average growth rate of the Metro Cagayan de Oro, the incremental volume is substantially large. Other prominent characteristics are radial pattem movements focusing to the Cagayan de ro City center from the surrounding municipalities and city’s suburban area. Most of the OD pairs in the radial direction will become double or triple the present demand. FIGURE 9.2-2 DESIRED LINE FOR PASSENGER TRIP: 2022 Part-0 (Metro Cagayan do Oro) —167—9.2.2 Cargo Flow ‘Table 9.2-3 shows the total generation of cargo demand in the Metro Cagayan de Oro ‘Area. The total cargo volume related to the Metro Cagayan de Oro is expected to increase from 112 kilo ton (k.t) per day in 2003 to 163 k.t. in 2010, 218 k.t. in 2016, and 288 k.t. in 2022. TABLE 9.2-3 CARGO DEMAND GENERATION IN METRO GAGAYAN DE ORO AREA. eae Cargo Demands today) Gonth Ratio | Neage Growth Rate 203 [zoo [aus [| mm | ono | ore | wo | om Copayanceowe | e220) 09982] 145526) 192086] 134 | 238 | 43% | 40% Tagooan 75| 2asz| 3257] aazaa| 29 | sas | ts0% | 92% vitanveva 1340] 1922] 2502] aaso] 14s | 258 | sam] sis Jaan xos| 320 asez) x92] 225 | 190 | 33% | 34% po 2am| aa7e| ase| gzia] 151 | 293 | Gam | sam 1 Sohador x78) 2450 3000) 362] 137 | 245 | som | ae ai vo) #6| sm] a] ase | 253 | 6am | sow Laguinngan | 50) 62] a5] usr | a3 | 76%] 6.2% Geagum es] wo] ase] t96| ss | 223 | sm | 43% Tie Cagayan daGro | S605] ta2ai6| iohiee| asssen[ sa7_| 262 | sim [5.2% stoma Ares 15116] 212s] 25se | s4aza| 139 | 226 | as% | at Tota Ta7a| i310] 2706] erare| 146 | 258 | se | 5.1% The total cargo movements generated from andlor attracted to Cagayan de Oro City will remain the largest, although the share of cargo related trips of Cagayan de Oro City in the area will drop from about three quarters to two thirds, The demand from/to Tagoloan will become triple of present conditions in 2010, and continu relatively rapid growth, then reach almost six times of present condition in 2022, which owing its newly opened container port activities. (Unit: Metric Ton per Day) FIGURE 9.2.3 OUTLINE OF CARGO MOVEMENTS IN THE METRO GAGAYAN DE ORO AREA Figure 9.2-2 illustrates the outline of cargo flow in the Metro Cagayan de Oro Area. The cargo movements inside the Cagayan de Oro City will be continuously dominant in 2022. However, a higher growth is expected for the demand between Cagayan de (ro City and the surrounding municipalities of the Metro Cagayan de Oro Area as well as the external area. PartD (Metro Cagayan de Oro} —168—As seen in Figure 9.2-4, the desired line shows that the cargo flows are expressed by a radial pattern with the foous at Cagayan de Oro City. The cargo transport demand related to Tagoloan and Villanueva will be the other hub of cargo flows in the Metro Cagayan de Oro Area, owing to the development of Phividec Industrial Park and Mindanao International Container Port in those areas. FIGURE 9.2-4 DESIRED LINE FOR CARGO FLOW: 2022 9.2.3 Airport Related Traffic Figure 9.2.3 shows the past trend of air passengers and cargoes in Cagayan de Oro Airport (CDOAP)'. In the lligan - Cagayan de Oro Corridor, there was the Airport before. However, this airport has stopped its operation since 1993. As for the future passengers and cargo volume related to the CDOAP, the projection made by the Study Team is employed’. ! isting arpot is located st Lumbia in Cagayan 6e Oro Cy, and it wil bo rlocates to Laguingingan by 2010 * Projection made fr the Now Airport Project assumed the demand froma the Iigan Alport, which has bsen closed since 1093, vil also convert fo the new apart, as ithe ligan Airports stilin operation by estimating its “potenti” demand from the end cata bafore 1992. On the other hand, past data of the Cagayan de Oro Airport shoned a sudden Increase of passengers in 1893. As a result Cagayan de Oro Arpor is assumed tobe hanaling so-cate “potent” damand fromf the ligan Arport since Is closure. in addition, the data utlzed for above-mentoned projection seemed to be contaminaled by abnormel data in 1997 and 1€98. which are different rom the data provided by the Cagayan de Oro ATO (Ast Transport Ofce), Deparment of ‘Transport and Cornmunicatons, during the Study and those newly oblained past data show much logical tend, Therefore, the Study Team judged that the projecton applied for the New Alport Project, which including biased demand frervto the Cagayan de Oro Aiport and the iigan Airport, wil not be appropriate to utlize fr the walle demand! forecast inthis Study to vod overestimation of the alror relat Wraie demand Part-D (Matro Cagayan de Oro) —169—