Some Discrete and Continuous Probability Distributions

In this chapter we shall define and discuss certain parametric families of probability distribution
that have been widely applied in a variety of decision-making situation. A parametric family of
distributions is a collection of distributions that is indexed by a quantity called parameter. These
distributions have standard names and can be derived under certain plausible conditions about the
random variable.
Binomial Distribution:
The binomial distribution is based on the assumption that the whole population consists of two
categories of trails- one having a particular attribute and other lacking the same. Occurrence of any
category generally called success and other called as failure. The process is referred to as a
Bernoulli process. Each trial is called a Bernoulli trial.
The Bernoulli Process: Strictly speaking, the Bernoulli process must possess the following properties:
1. The experiment consists of n repeated trials.
2. Each trial results in an outcome that may be classified as a success or a failure.
3. The probability of success, denoted by p, remains constant from trial to trial.
4. The repeated trials are independent.
Consider the set of Bernoulli trials where three items are selected at random from a manufacturing
process, inspected, and classified as defective or non-defective. A defective item is designated a
success. The number of successes is a random variable X assuming integral values from 0 through 3.
The eight possible outcomes and the corresponding values of X are

Since the items are selected independently and we assume that the process produces 25% defectives,
we have

Similar calculations yield the probabilities for the other possible outcomes. The probability
distribution of X is therefore

Binomial Distribution: The number X of successes in n Bernoulli trials is called a binomial

random variable. The probability distribution of this discrete random variable is called the
binomial distribution, and its values will be denoted by since they depend on the
number of trials and the probability of a success on a given trial. Thus, for the probability
distribution of X, the number of defectives is

Definition: A Bernoulli trial can result in a success with probability and a failure with
probability . Then the probability distribution of the binomial random variable X, the
number of successes in n independent trials, is
( )
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Example: The probability that a certain kind of component will survive a shock test is 3/4. Find the
probability that exactly 2 of the next 4 components tested survive.
Solution: Assuming that the tests are independent and p = 3/4 for each of the 4 tests, we obtain

Where Does the Name Binomial Come From?

The binomial distribution derives its name from the fact that the n + 1 terms in the binomial
expansion of correspond to the various values of for That is,

Since p + q = 1, we see that

a condition that must hold for any probability distribution.

 Frequently, we are interested in problems where it is necessary to find or

. Binomial sums

are given in following Table for for selected values of from 0.1 to 0.9.
We illustrate the use of Table with the following example.
Example: The probability that a patient recovers from a rare blood disease is 0.4. If 15 people are
known to have contracted this disease, what is the probability that (a) at least 10 survive, (b) from 3
to 8 survive, and (c) exactly 5 survive?
Solution: Let X be the number of people who survive.

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Example: A large chain retailer purchases a certain kind of electronic device from a manufacturer.
The manufacturer indicates that the defective rate of the device is 3%.
(a) The inspector randomly picks 20 items from a shipment. What is the probability that there will
be at least one defective item among these 20?
(b) Suppose that the retailer receives 10 shipments in a month and the inspector randomly tests 20
devices per shipment. What is the probability that there will be exactly 3 shipments each containing
at least one defective device among the 20 that are selected and tested from the shipment?
Solution: (a) Denote by X the number of defective devices among the 20. Then X follows a
distribution. Hence,

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(b) In this case, each shipment can either contain at least one defective item or not. Hence, testing of
each shipment can be viewed as a Bernoulli trial with p = 0.4562 from part (a). Assuming
independence from shipment to shipment and denoting by Y the number of shipments containing at
least one defective item, Y follows another binomial distribution Therefore,

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Example: It is conjectured that an impurity exists in 30% of all drinking wells in a certain rural
community. In order to gain some insight into the true extent of the problem, it is determined that
some testing is necessary. It is too expensive to test all of the wells in the area, so 10 are randomly
selected for testing.
(a) Using the binomial distribution, what is the probability that exactly 3 wells have the impurity,
assuming that the conjecture is correct?
(b) What is the probability that more than 3 wells are impure?

Example: Consider the situation of above Example. The notion that 30% of the wells are impure is
merely a conjecture put forth by the area water board. Suppose 10 wells are randomly selected and 6
are found to contain the impurity. What does this imply about the conjecture? Use a probability
statement.
Solution: We must first ask: “If the conjecture is correct, is it likely that we would find 6 or more
impure wells?”

As a result, it is very unlikely (4.7% chance) that 6 or more wells would be found impure if only
30% of all are impure. This casts considerable doubt on the conjecture and suggests that the
impurity problem is much more severe.
Areas of Application: From Examples, it should be clear that the binomial distribution finds
applications in many scientific fields. An industrial engineer is keenly interested in the “proportion
defective” in an industrial process. This distribution applies to any industrial situation where an
outcome of a process is dichotomous and the results of the process are independent, with the
probability of success being constant from trial to trial. The binomial distribution is also used
extensively for medical and military applications. In both fields, a success or failure result is
important. For example, “cure” or “no cure” is important in pharmaceutical work, and “hit” or
“miss” is often the interpretation of the result of firing a guided missile.

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Proof: Let the outcome on the jth trial be represented by a Bernoulli random variable , which
assumes the values 0 and 1 with probabilities q and p, respectively. Therefore, in a binomial
experiment the number of successes can be written as the sum of the n independent indicator
variables. Hence,

The mean of any is .Therefore, using [ ] [ ]

[ ] the mean of the binomial distribution is

The variance of any .

Extending the idea of theorem 4 (previous chapter) that is . To the case
of n independent Bernoulli variables gives the variance of the binomial distribution as

Poisson distribution:
Experiments yielding numerical values of a random variable X, the number of outcomes occurring
during a given time interval or in a specified region, are called Poisson experiments. The given
time interval may be of any length, such as a minute, a day, a week, a month, or even a year. For
example, a Poisson experiment can generate observations for the random variable X representing the
number of telephone calls received per hour by an office, the number of days school is closed due to
snow during the winter, or the number of games postponed due to rain during a baseball season. The
specified region could be a line segment, an area, a volume, or perhaps a piece of material. In such
instances, X might represent the number of field mice per acre, the number of bacteria in a given
culture, or the number of typing errors per page. A Poisson experiment is derived from the Poisson
process and possesses the following properties.

Properties of the Poisson Process

1. The number of outcomes occurring in one time interval or specified region of space is
independent of the number that occur in any other disjoint time interval or region. In this
sense we say that the Poisson process has no memory.

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 2. The probability that a single outcome will occur during a very short time interval or in a
small region is proportional to the length of the time interval or the size of the region and
does not depend on the number of outcomes occurring outside this time interval or region.
3. The probability that more than one outcome will occur in such a short time interval or fall in
such a small region is negligible.
The number X of outcomes occurring during a Poisson experiment is called a Poisson random
variable, and its probability distribution is called the Poisson distribution. The mean number of
outcomes is computed from , where is the specific “time,” “distance,” “area,” or “volume”
of interest. Since the probabilities depend on , the rate of occurrence of outcomes, we shall denote
them by .
Definition: The probability distribution of the Poisson random variable X, representing the number
of outcomes occurring in a given time interval or specified region denoted by , is

where is the average number of outcomes per unit time, distance, area, or volume and
 Table contains Poisson probability sums,

for selected values of λt ranging from 0.1 to 18.0. We illustrate the use of this table
with the following two examples.

Example: During a laboratory experiment, the average number of radioactive particles passing
through a counter in 1 millisecond is 4. What is the probability that 6 particles enter the counter in a
given millisecond?

Solution: Using the Poisson distribution with x = 6 and and referring to Table, we have

Example: Ten is the average number of oil tankers arriving each day at a certain port. The facilities
at the port can handle at most 15 tankers per day. What is the probability that on a given day tankers
have to be turned away?

Solution: Let X be the number of tankers arriving each day. Then, using Table, we have

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Approximation of Binomial Distribution by a Poisson distribution:
It should be evident from the three principles of the Poisson process that the Poisson distribution is
related to the binomial distribution. Although the Poisson usually finds applications in space and
time problems, it can be viewed as a limiting form of the binomial distribution. In the case of the
binomial, if n is quite large and p is small, the conditions begin to simulate the continuous space or
time implications of the Poisson process. The independence among Bernoulli trials in the binomial
case is consistent with principle 2 of the Poisson process.

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Example: In a certain industrial facility, accidents occur infrequently. It is known that the
probability of an accident on any given day is 0.005 and accidents are independent of each other.
(a) What is the probability that in any given period of 400 days there will be an accident on one
day?
(b) What is the probability that there are at most three days with an accident?

Example: In a manufacturing process where glass products are made, defects or bubbles occur,
occasionally rendering the piece undesirable for marketing. It is known that, on average, 1 in every
1000 of these items produced has one or more bubbles. What is the probability that a random
sample of 8000 will yield fewer than 7 items possessing bubbles?

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Normal Distribution
The most important continuous probability distribution in the entire field of statistics is the normal
distribution. Its graph, called the normal curve, is the bell-shaped curve, which approximately
describes many phenomena that occur in nature, industry, and research.

A continuous random variable X having the bell-shaped distribution of above Figure is called a
normal random variable. The mathematical equation for the probability distribution of the normal
variable depends on the two parameters and , its mean and standard deviation, respectively.
Hence, we denote the values of the density of X by .

Definition: The density of the normal random variable X, with mean and variance , is
( )
√

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Based on inspection of above figures we list the following properties of the normal curve:
1. The mode, which is the point on the horizontal axis where the curve is a maximum, occurs at
.
2. The curve is symmetric about a vertical axis through the mean .
3. The curve has its points of inflection at ; it is concave downward if
and is concave upward otherwise.
4. The normal curve approaches the horizontal axis asymptotically as we proceed in either
direction away from the mean.
5. The total area under the curve and above the horizontal axis is equal to 1.

Problem: Show that the area under the normal curve having density function is equal to
1. (See Nurul Islam)
Areas under the Normal Curve: The area under the normal curve bounded by the two ordinates
and equals the probability that the random variable X assumes a value between
and .

( )
∫ ∫
√

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We know the normal curve is dependent on the mean and the standard deviation of the distribution
under investigation. Then area under the curve i.e. probability between any two ordinates must also
depend on the values and . However, it would be a hopeless task to attempt to set up separate
tables for every conceivable value of and . Fortunately, we are able to transform all the
observations of any normal random variable X into a new set of observations of a normal random
variable Z with mean 0 and variance 1. This can be done by means of the transformation

Whenever X assumes a value x, the corresponding value of Z is given by . Consequently,

we may write

where Z is seen to be a normal random variable with mean 0 and variance 1.Therefore, the area
under the X-curve between the ordinates and in equals the area under the Z-curve
between the transformed ordinates and .

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Example: Given a random variable X having a normal distribution with μ = 50 and σ = 10, find the
probability that X assumes a value between 45 and 62.
Solution: The values corresponding to and are

Therefore,

Example: Given that X has a normal distribution with and , find the probability
that X assumes a value greater than 362.
Solution: To find we need to evaluate the area under the normal curve to the right of
. This can be done by transforming to the corresponding value, obtaining the
area to the left of from Table, and then subtracting this area from 1. We find that

Hence,

Solution: (a) In Figure (a), we see that the k value leaving an area of 0.3015 to the right must then
leave an area of 0.6985 to the left. From Table it follows that k = 0.52.
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(b) From Table we note that the total area to the left of −0.18 is equal to 0.4286. In Figure (b), we
see that the area between k and −0.18 is 0.4197, so the area to the left of k must be 0.4286 − 0.4197
= 0.0089. Hence, from Table, we have k = −2.37.

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Applications of the Normal Distribution:

Example: A certain type of storage battery lasts, on average, 3.0 years with a standard deviation of
0.5 year. Assuming that battery life is normally distributed, find the probability that a given battery
will last less than 2.3 years.

Solution: To find we need to evaluate the area under the normal curve to the left of
2.3. This is accomplished by finding the area to the left of the corresponding value.

Hence, we find that

and then,

Example: An electrical firm manufactures light bulbs that have a life, before burn-out, that is
normally distributed with mean equal to 800 hours and a standard deviation of 40 hours. Find the
probability that a bulb burns between 778 and 834 hours.
Solution :

The values corresponding to and are

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Example: In an industrial process, the diameter of a ball bearing is an important measurement. The
buyer sets specifications for the diameter to be cm. The implication is that no part
falling outside these specifications will be accepted. It is known that in the process the diameter of a
ball bearing has a normal distribution with mean and standard deviation . On
average, how many manufactured ball bearings will be scrapped?
Solution: The values corresponding to the specification limits are and . The
corresponding z values are

Hence,

From Table, . Due to symmetry of the normal distribution, we find that

As a result, it is anticipated that, on average, 4.56% of manufactured ball bearings will be scrapped.

Example: A certain machine makes electrical resistors having a mean resistance of 40 ohms and a
standard deviation of 2 ohms. Assuming that the resistance follows a normal distribution and can be
measured to any degree of accuracy, what percentage of resistors will have a resistance exceeding
43 ohms?
Solution: A percentage is found by multiplying the relative frequency by 100%. Since the relative
frequency for an interval is equal to the probability of a value falling in the interval, we must find
the area to the right of . This can be done by transforming to the corresponding
value, obtaining the area to the left of z from Table, and then subtracting this area from 1. We find

Therefore,

Hence, 6.68% of the resistors will have a resistance exceeding 43 ohms.

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Example: Gauges are used to reject all components for which a certain dimension is not within the
specification . It is known that this measurement is normally distributed with mean 1.50
and standard deviation 0.2. Determine the value d such that the specifications “cover” 95% of the
measurements.
Solution : From Table we know that
Therefore,

Example: The average grade for an exam is 74, and the standard deviation is 7. If 12% of the class
is given As, and the grades are curved to follow a normal distribution, what is the lowest possible A
and the highest possible B?
Solution: In this example, we begin with a known area of probability, find the value, and then
determine from the formula . An area of 0.12, corresponding to the fraction of
students receiving As, is shaded in Figure. We require a z value that leaves 0.12 of the area to the
right and, hence, an area of 0.88 to the left. From, has the closest value to 0.88, so the
desired z value is 1.18.

Hence,

Therefore, the lowest A is 83 and the highest B is 82.

Example: Refer to above Example and find the sixth decile.

Solution: The sixth decile, written , is the x value that leaves 60% of the area to the left, as shown
in Figure.

From Table we find , so the desired z value is 0.25. Now

Hence, . That is, 60% of the grades are 75 or less.

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