Automotive 2025
Automotive 2025
Engage with consumers, embrace mobility and exploit the ecosystem IBM Institute for Business Value
Executive Report
Automotive
Our newest study shows that the dynamics of the For decades, the auto industry was a very structured and tight ecosystem with clearly defined
consumer-vehicle-enterprise relationship are starting to boundaries. The auto manufacturers ruled and few “outsiders” were allowed in — even
change drastically as traditional industry boundaries consumers didn’t have much of a voice. But all of that began to change with the growth of
disappear. Automotive (auto) enterprises must adapt to digital technologies.
how consumers can access vehicles in new ways and
Based on their digital experiences with other industries, today’s consumers now expect
use them in their digital lives — and how cars now fit into
seamless, omni-channel and customized auto-related experiences, and they are increasingly
an increasingly complex web of transportation options.
willing to contribute to product and services innovation. Consumers know how to get
Interconnectedness is the essence of the creative
information online and circumvent the standard processes that used to restrict their
disruption ahead: between consumers and
involvement with industry participants.
automakers; between consumers and vehicles; and
among traditional and non-traditional participants in the As personal mobility expectations grow, non-traditional enterprises are offering technologies
industry ecosystem. Looking toward 2025, the to help consumers with driving, including getting directions, dealing with traffic or parking,
enterprises that welcome openness are setting the and integrating with other forms of transportation. New business models such as car sharing
stage for success. even threaten the need to own a vehicle.
Industry ecosystems continue to intersect and overlap. In the future, this disruption will affect
major industry processes as traditional roles change and industry borders fade.
Six years ago, we published our last major auto industry perspective, “Automotive 2020:
Clarity beyond the chaos.”1 To update our understanding of the future landscape, we shifted
the lens out for this “Auto 2025” report. We asked 175 executives from 21 countries in a variety
of leadership roles how they expect the industry to change over the next decade and how
they plan to deal with those changes.
2 Automotive 2025: Industry without borders
73% of OEM executives rated As always, enterprises and industries alike must deal with certain unavoidable external forces. In
mobility services as a significant area for both “Auto 2020” and “Auto 2025,” executives ranked technology progress as the most important
co-creation with consumers
external force they face. Along with various external forces that affect many industries, our new
73% of all interviewed executives study also reveals three primary disruptors whose associated “disruption” sets the stage for
rated collaboration with other industries as innovation and new value rather than being a negative influence. These primary
the best opportunity for industry growth as
disruptors — consumers, mobility and the ecosystem — are causing traditional industry borders to
we progress toward 2025
be redrawn or even disappear (see Figure 1).
75% of all executives we spoke
with expect non-traditional industry Consumers are more engaged than ever — they not only want to use cars, they can be compelled
participants to have a key role in the to co-create them. Vehicles are increasingly intelligent, which is changing the concept of mobility
automotive ecosystem by 2025 including consumer-driven changes beyond the vehicle itself. This expanding ecosystem means
learning to thrive under disruption as auto industry lines blur, especially as those in other industries
join the mix, such as electronics and telecommunications enterprises.
Figure 1
Three primary disruptors – consumers, mobility and the ecosystem – are fueled by external forces, causing
industry boundaries to blur and even disappear
External forces
Primary disruptors
Expect digital Can be Taps into Creates new Enables Creates new
engagement compelled intelligent offerings via new paths opportunities to
and to co-create vehicle consumer-driven to enterprise partner within and
experiences products capabilities requirements growth outside traditional
and strategy industry
boundaries
Source: IBM Institute for Business Value analysis.
3
Figure 2
Current and expected impact of the four highest-rated external forces at four points in time, based on
interviews from “Auto 2020” (rankings for 2008 and 2020) and “Auto 2025” (rankings for 2014 and 2025)
What are the most important external forces that will impact the industry today and in the next
8-10 years?
66% 68%
61%
56% 55%
50%
46%
41%
34% 37%
33%
25% 26%
22%
11% 10%
2008 2014 2020 2025 2008 2014 2020 2025 2008 2014 2020 2025 2008 2014 2020 2025
executives describe their organizations as Technology progress. Rated the highest in both “Auto 2020” and “Auto 2025,” technology
related to digital, vehicle and the enterprise will remain a major industry influence.
prepared for challenges on the way to
2025; 71 percent as somewhat prepared; Consumer expectations. This was the most dramatic shift among external influencers
and the only one to change direction between the two studies. It now only ranks behind
and 10 percent as not prepared. technology. Digitally enabled consumers are expecting significant changes in products,
Exacerbating this limited readiness, just services and how enterprises engage with them.
33 percent said their organizations are Government regulations. A significant increase from “Auto 2020,” a combination of focus on
adaptable to face challenges, 59 percent safety (such as preventing digital distraction), autonomous driving, retail channel disruption
are somewhat adaptable and 8 percent and new mobility (for example, taxi services) is leading governments to develop positions that
affect industry participants.
are not adaptable.
Personal mobility. Mobility is increasing in importance for 2025 as urbanization, lifestyle
changes and cost-effective alternatives affect how people want to move from one place to
another.
5
Mobility is disrupting industry products and services in two ways. First, self-enabling vehicles
will become increasingly sophisticated and able to far exceed their main function of
transporting people. Second, consumer-driven mobility — stemming from new innovators
and digital technologies — is making it possible to deliver personalized experiences beyond
the vehicle itself.
The ecosystem is disrupting individual enterprise growth and leading to industry expansion.
First, auto organizations are looking for new paths to growth, especially to take advantage of
new consumer expectations and available technologies. Second, they need to chart a course
through the evolving landscape of new participants and fluid industry boundaries.
6 Automotive 2025: Industry without borders
Digital relationship Digital technologies and lifestyle changes are creating new expectations in how auto
• Seamless consumers buy, own and use vehicles (see Figure 3). Fifty-four percent of “Auto 2025”
• Personalized
• Relevant executives expect people will buy cars directly through the Internet and 61 percent anticipate
• Intuitive
people will want different pricing models. Interestingly, only 45 percent of interviewed OEMs
USING OWNING
expect consumers to seek alternative ownership models versus 75 percent of other study
participants. To best differentiate in how vehicles are used, industry executives’ top answers
Source: IBM Institute for Business Value analysis.
were: comprehensive connected services (cited by 80 percent), physical and digital
personalization (59 percent), and data security and privacy (56 percent).
By 2025, those we spoke to expect more consumers to actively participate in the creation of
new products and services, especially mobility services (cited by 63 percent), product design
(59 percent) and marketing programs (54 percent). Sixty-six percent expect consumers even
7
to influence business strategy.2 The “power of the crowd” can bring additional insights and
benefits, and extend beyond enterprise confines by taking advantage of consumers’ desire to
participate, exploiting the power of many and avoiding the constraints of corporate culture.
Multiple systems of engagement and business models will be developed to collaborate with
the right crowd in a given situation, and attain relevant insights and benefits (see Figure 4).
These systems of engagement could take the form of games, contests or other methods, and
must be easy, intuitive and provide a great consumer experience.
Figure 4
The OEMs see greater opportunity in key areas of co-creation with consumers; each needs a different system
to engage
How extensively will your enterprise use co-creation with consumers in the following areas by 2025?
OEMs 53%
Other Others 61%
Product
potential
development
areas
Self-integrating Self-socializing
• Digital integration
p ants Wo • Social networks
• Seamless
c cu r k • Assisting others
• Secure • Using vehicles to
o
ing
ts
do other things
Takin are of i
w it
h ot h e r s
Self-configuring Self-driving
gc
Tak lf
i ng care of itse
Self-learning Self-healing
• Occupants • Analytics
• Performance • Prognostics
• Behavior • Servicing
• Cognitive
Self-integrating. Like other smart devices, the vehicle will be an integrated component in the
Internet of Things (IoT).3 It will collect and use information from others concerning traffic,
mobility, weather and other events associated with moving around: details about driving
conditions, as well as sensor-based and location-based information for ancillary industries,
such as insurance and retail.
10 Automotive 2025: Industry without borders
Self-configuring. Individual mobility personas will contain the necessary digital information
What is “self-driving?” about an individual to provide the desired vehicle experience: for example, personal preferences
Automated: Driver must be present on configuring controls and seats, multi-media preferences, financial information for making
• Partially – Driver monitors automatic functions, purchases from the vehicle or medical information about the driver or its usual occupants.
cannot perform non-driving tasks.
Seventy-seven percent of “Auto 2025” executives expect digital personas to exchange
• Highly – System recognizes its limitations and
information within a brand, while 62 percent see it happening across an automaker’s own
calls driver to take control, if needed. Driver can
brands. Just 26 percent expect this to be happening between automakers by 2025. Vehicles will
perform some non-driving tasks.
configure themselves using mobility personas. With permission, vehicles will access additional
• Fully – System handles all situations
personal information as required. For example, a driver with a heart condition could authorize
autonomously without monitoring by driver.
the monitoring of vital signs. If the vehicle senses a potential heart attack, the driver would be
Driver allowed to perform non-driving tasks.
alerted, the vehicle would automatically slow to park, and additional information about his or her
Autonomous: No driver required medical preferences could be released to appropriate health facilities.
• Limited – Designated areas where vehicles,
infrastructure and the environment are Self-learning. Seventy-four percent told us that vehicles will have cognitive capabilities to learn
controlled. the behaviors of the driver and occupants, the vehicle itself and the surrounding environment to
• Fully – Integrated with other vehicles in normal continually optimize and advise. As the vehicle learns more about the driver and occupants, it
driving conditions. will be able to expand its advice to other mobility services options.
Self-healing. Vehicles will be able to fix and optimize themselves based on certain events or
situations without human intervention. Analytics capabilities will help vehicles identify and locate
issues, schedule fixes and even help other vehicles with similar problems with minimal impact to
the driver.
Self-driving. Vehicles will become highly automated with some areas of limited autonomous
function in controlled environments (see sidebar, “What is ‘self-driving?’” and Figure 6).
Automated vehicle safety is another area that can differentiate a brand: 68 percent of
interviewed executives consider this a key consumer differentiator.
11
Self-socializing. By 2025, 57 percent of interviewed executives say vehicles will connect with Figure 6
Vehicles will become highly automated, with some areas of
other vehicles and the infrastructure around them to share information and solutions, and 64
limited autonomous driving
percent of OEMs anticipate it. These vehicle social networks could extend beyond mobility as
How mainstream will the use of automated vehicles be
the vehicle connects into the greater IoT and socializes with devices from other industries by 2025?
(see sidebar on page 12, “How self-socializing vehicles can support public safety.”) Automated
The vehicle is just one component of the new customized mobility options that are enabled by Highly 55%
technology and demanded by consumers. Mobility includes products and services that Fully 19%
enable different ways for consumers to move from one point to another according to each Autonomous
traditional vehicle-centric focus. Sixty-nine percent of the executives cited such new services
as a top way to grow. OEMs control vehicle-centric services that drivers use during vehicle
operation, but other mobility services — including driver convenience and occupant
experience — will see intense competition from non-traditional industry participants.
Some mobility services, such as car sharing, directly conflict with the traditional auto business
model of selling vehicles. But if auto enterprises develop transferable personas that allow
people to have a car feel like their own as they use the car-sharing model, then consumers will
begin to demand certain models based on this differentiator. Forty-three percent of “Auto
2025” executives agreed such innovation could extend the importance of auto enterprise’s
brand beyond car ownership.
12 Automotive 2025: Industry without borders
Figure 7
How self-socializing vehicles can support Consumer-driven mobility extends far beyond vehicle-centric services controlled by the auto industry and
offers opportunities for both traditional and non-traditional industry participants
public safety
Drivers could allow the cameras on their cars to Vehicle Multi-modal Ancillary
connect to a local department of public safety. • Electric vehicle services • Service scheduling
This could support search efforts for missing • Intelligent driving • Vehicle tracking
Vehicle- • Safety/security
children, escaping criminals or other search efforts centric • Vehicle diagnostics
• Vehicle performance
in the public interest.
• Parking • Automatic toll pay
• Real-time traffic • Pay-as-you-go
Driver • Smart navigation insurance and other
convenience • Weather services
Auto industry-driven
Consumer-driven
Figure 8
The top growth strategies are highly focused on initiatives that require auto enterprises to extend well
beyond the traditional industry boundaries
Where do you see the best opportunities for industry growth Percentage change
looking toward the year 2025? from “Auto 2020”
Currently, suppliers are better able to expand beyond the traditional industry through mobility “Developing talent the right way is a
and working with new partners, while OEMs are more vested in maintaining the status quo.
very challenging activity. We need
However, today’s industry executives seem to be overlooking important chances to grow that
new HR policies and initiatives to
were recognized six years ago — especially “targeting new consumer segments.” Only 41
percent of executives named this an important path to growth. The value of making new bring in talent from outside the
digital experiences possible should not be overlooked — today, it seems many are limiting industry.”
their ideas here to just offering new product features.
Director of Mobility, Japanese OEM
In their quest for growth in a changing environment, industry executives must also address
persistent workforce challenges. Organizations must infuse talent from other industries into
their workforce as they engage more dynamically with consumers through digital and
connected technologies. Only 35 percent said their enterprise is effective at doing this.
Auto organizations also need to be effective at using talent across the enterprise, yet only 37
percent of executives report doing this well. They need a deep understanding of expertise
and know-how inside and outside the enterprise to quickly engage for specific issues and
opportunities. In addition, just 36 percent said they are doing well at developing skills rapidly
to meet ever-changing technology advancements, operational efficiencies and consumer
expectations.
• Retail channels, and marketing and sales: Digital technologies, consumer expectations,
online intermediaries, dealer value, Internet buying and mobility services
• Product development and research: Digital technologies, co-creation with consumers,
non-traditional industry participants and collaboration with other industries
• Aftermarket: Digital technologies, mobility services, 3D printing and co-creation with
consumers
• Supply chain and manufacturing: Digital technologies, collaboration with other industries
and non-traditional industry participants.
17
Partner to disrupt
• Break down traditional barriers, seeking non-traditional partners and disruptive business
models for untapped opportunities. Enable your organization to design, invest in and pilot
innovation, bypassing traditional organizational constraints.
• Leverage technologies outside the vehicle to create high-value product and services
offerings that enhance mobility and the rest of the consumer experience.
• Re-evaluate consumer segments in terms of mobility services versus product categories to
envision potential services offerings. Target passengers, not just drivers. Find ways to
increase wallet share of existing customers while pursuing new ones.
Even if your organization is among the 19 percent that consider themselves prepared to
Study demographics
compete in the auto industry of 2025, it can be tough to articulate and prioritize the actions
Segment
New entrants
that may be necessary to get you there. Answering these questions should help you prepare
Distribution 8% to profit from the blurring industry borders.
8%
38% OEMs • How will your organization learn to interact in ways that consumers prefer?
Ancillary 21% • What is your plan to develop appropriate systems of engagement for specific crowds you
want to serve?
25%
• What can you do to support and take advantage of self-enabling vehicle capabilities?
Suppliers
• How will you take advantage of untapped opportunities in consumer-driven mobility and
generate new revenue streams?
Geography
China • In what ways can your enterprise plan for growth, given the greater opportunities that
9% North America partnering outside the organization makes possible? How can you prioritize actions to deal
Rest of world
13% 29%
with persistent workforce challenges facing the industry?
• How can you form relationships with newer, non-traditional industry participants to provide
Japan 22% the digital relationship and customer experience that today’s drivers and passengers
27% demand?
Europe
19
Contributors
Kristin Biron, Visual Designer, IBM Institute for Business Value, IBM Sales and Distribution
Paul Fielden, Global Automotive Center of Competency Leader, IBM Global Business Services
Syed R. Hussain, Strategy Consultant, IBM Interactive Experience, IBM Global Delivery
Joni McDonald, Writer and Content Strategist, IBM Institute for Business Value, IBM Sales
and Distribution
Tarun Mishra, Strategy Consultant, IBM Interactive Experience, IBM Global Delivery
Aneela Nasim, Global Automotive Business Advisor, IBM Global Business Services
Acknowledgments
We would like to thank the 175 industry executives who donated valuable time to share their
views on the future of the industry and appreciate their passion for this project. We also
thank our extended IBM Automotive team for their support in arranging and administering
the interviews, sharing their ideas and supporting us as we continue to think about 2025
and beyond.
2 IBM Institute for Business Value. “The Customer-activated Enterprise.” October 2013.
www.ibm.com/csuitestudy
3 Brody, Paul and Veena Pureswaran. “Device democracy: Saving the future of the Internet of
Things.” IBM Institute for Business Value. September 2014. http://www-935.ibm.com/
services/us/gbs/thoughtleadership/internetofthings/
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