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A review of system dynamics models applied in social and humanitarian

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Allahi, F, S De Leeuw, Ehsan Sabet, Ramez Kian, L Damiani, P Giribone, R Revetria, and R Cianci. 2020. “A
Review of System Dynamics Models Applied in Social and Humanitarian Researches”. Loughborough
University. https://hdl.handle.net/2134/12616550.v1.
Proceedings of the World Congress on Engineering 2018 Vol II
WCE 2018, July 4-6, 2018, London, U.K.

A Review of System Dynamics Models Applied

in Social and Humanitarian Researches
Fahimeh Allahi, Sander de Leeuw, Ehsan Sabet, Ramez Kian, Lorenzo Damiani, Pietro Giribone,
Roberto Revetria, Roberto Cianci


Abstract— Over the past decades, the number of disasters
has been on the rise, including earthquakes, war, flood and I. INTRODUCTION
other incidents that cause destruction of society, such as
education and health services. Forecasts show that over the
next 50 years, natural and manmade disasters are expected to
increase five-folds both in the number and impact. Therefore,
T he Red Crescent Societies and the International
Federation of Red Cross (IFRC) introduce a disaster as
“a sudden, calamitous event that seriously disrupts the
there is a need for effective and efficient disaster support functioning of a community or society and causes human,
actions during emergencies. This compels humanitarian material, and economic or environmental losses that exceed
organizations to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of
the community's or society's ability to cope using its own
their approaches and facilitate decision making in resolving
such complicated problems characterized by numerous resources” [1]. It is necessary here to clarify exactly the
parameters. Besides, humanitarian organizations face situations explanation of an emergency situation by [2]: “Disasters
with multiple critical events, inadequate funding, limited time evolve into crises as their complexity increases and they
to plan and react, and operating in increasingly challenging interact with other vulnerability factors demanding a
circumstances. Useful approaches for tackling problems in such response that challenges the traditional response mechanisms
dynamic conditions require methods and tools that take into
and capabilities.” Millions of people around the world are
account uncertainty and enable managers to evaluate the
dynamic complexity of such systems, to facilitate decision affected by the direct consequences of natural and man-made
making. Among the large amount of decision-aid tools for disasters, which have become one of the most significant
humanitarian organizations, System Dynamic (SD) is a method problems of human life according to the report by the Centre
used for the evaluation of complex system behavior and for for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) [3].
presenting the effect of decisions over time in an easy-to-use Nowadays, the number of disasters is increasing causing
model. This method has been applied in humanitarian
the disruption of local infrastructure and population,
problems, and this paper aims to present a review of the most
relevant humanitarian publications associated with system poverty, diseases, ecological disruption, loss of human life,
dynamics. This literature review is a structured review of the human suffering, and deterioration of health and health
papers published since 2003 onwards. The finding of this services [3, 4]. It also leads to situations with forced
research can be used to facilitate further research in developing migration-related crises such as refugees, internally
the system dynamic methodology for humanitarian displaced people and PoC (Protection of Civilians) camps
organizations and to present the essential requirement of SD
tools for modeling complex environments.
[5] leading to a state of deprivation and suffering [6].
It is necessary to quickly support sufferers after the
Index Terms— Complex systems, Decision-making, occurrence of disasters in various ways, such as protecting
Humanitarian, Literature review, System dynamic. injured people, allocating resources, supplying meals
assistance, shelter and medical care [7]. Therefore, the
demands have increased for disaster response operations of
F. A. Author is visiting PhD student at Wolfson Department, University
of Loughborough, UK (e-mail: f.allahi@ lboro.ac.uk). humanitarian organizations, donors, governments, non-
S. d. L. Author is Associate professor of Logistics & Operations government, and all the relief organizations to assist the
Management at the University of Amsterdam, Department of Information, affected countries and reduce the disaster's impacts. Critical
Logistics and Innovation, School of Business and Economics, de Boelelaan
1105, 5th floor, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, Netherland (e-mail: management of the factors that influence effectiveness in
[email protected]). disaster response in international humanitarian organizations
E. S. Author is with the University of Loughborough, UK (e-mail: is essential, initiating the improvement of operational skill to
[email protected]).
R. K. is with the University of Loughborough, UK (e-mail:
better face disasters [1]. Moreover, this is complicated by
[email protected]). humanitarian organizations suffering from poor funding, and
L. D. Author is with Genoa University, Via Opera Pia 15, 16145 Genoa, insufficient opportunity to organize and behave correctly in
IT (e-mail: [email protected]).
crisis situations.
P. G. Author is with the University of Genoa, Department of
Mechanical Engineering, Via Opera Pia 15 16132 Genoa IT (e-mail:
[email protected]).
R. R. Author is with the University of Genoa, Department of II. SYSTEM DYNAMIC REVIEW
Mechanical Engineering, Via Opera Pia 15 16132 Genoa IT (Phone
Number: +393207982156; e-mail: [email protected]). System dynamics is a modeling and simulation
R. C. Author is with the University of Genoa, Department of methodology that has been introduced for the first time by
Mechanical Engineering, Via Opera Pia 15 16132 Genoa IT (Phone
Number: +390103532895; e-mail: [email protected]). Jay. W. Forrester in 1958 at the Massachusetts Institute of

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ISSN: 2078-0958 (Print); ISSN: 2078-0966 (Online)
Proceedings of the World Congress on Engineering 2018 Vol II
WCE 2018, July 4-6, 2018, London, U.K.

Technology [8] which emphasized the multi-loop, multistate, damages, and an assistance demand from humanitarian
and nonlinear features of the feedback systems in human organizations, public agents, and other donor's is asked for
life. The SD model can be displayed graphically by applying the affected region and reduce impacts [19]. Recently,
a mixture of simulation and circumstances modeling to disasters and any occurrence that produce the disruption in
develop both perception and modeling [9]. Furthermore, it the environment happen increasingly [20] and cause serious
can be applied to systems with several factors, high range of effects on different aspects of human life. Beside, related
uncertainty, casual obscurity, and complexity adjusted with humanitarian support expected much more as well due to
the requirement of humanitarian organizations. unplanned famine, poverty, diseases, climate change [21],
The SD approach presents administrators with a collection which generate more migration-related crises such as
of tools that can support their knowledge in complex refugees, internally displaced people and PoC camps.
environments including causal mapping to think systemically Accordingly, a universal demand of disaster assistance
and interpreting the dynamic complexity, and simulation procedures raised during emergencies which are incited
modeling [10] to evaluate the outcomes of interactions donors and humanitarian organizations to develop the
between variables and improve comprehension of complex benefits of their methods and decision making in modifying
systems [11]. such complex problems. These findings have forced
In the field of system dynamics, [12] and [13] have managers of humanitarian organizations to recognize the
provided two robust literature reviews on the present complexity of these parameters, understand the demand and
simulators. Complex dynamic systems have been reviewed desired response to a disaster [22], and discover how to
by [11] and 33 empirical studies in the view of dependent manage complex aid performances. Beneficial knowledge in
and independent variables have been evaluated by [13]. The such dynamic situations needs convenient tools that
investigation of problems involving interacting feedback empower managers to demonstrate the dynamic complexity
loops has presented that it is required to solve them by in a system and to develop decision making. System
system dynamic [14] and [5]. dynamic is a strength tool in the evaluation of complex
Some of the benefits of dynamic modeling [15]: system behavior and demonstrating the effect of donor’s
• Discovers probable emergent characteristics of a decisions on humanitarian subjects in developing an easy-to-
system: dynamic models provide a way to investigate use model. Furthermore, the interrelations among the
emergent behavior because such models can cover these observed and reviewed phenomena could be visualized by
real-time spans at the time of model runs. means of appropriate tools such as SD [23]. When system
• Prepares quantitative assessments of qualitative ideas: dynamic and modeling the complex situation are properly
system dynamic models allow the user to convert qualitative understood, humanitarian organizations can extract the
understanding into a quantitative style which most systems maximum benefits from their available resources in their
are just recognized at a qualitative level. efforts to attend the victim demand [21]. Modeling the
• The most important parameters can be identified in a organizational dynamics in emergency situations would
system dynamic: a lot of inputs should be recognized to enable better understanding of the human behaviors to
understand their impact on the output; however, it's really improve humanitarian's performance. Therefore, SD enables
difficult to monitor all of them. SD model allows evaluation the causal relationships to be quantified and tested more
of the impact of each input on the output and ranking them, explicitly and rigorously. Donors could improve their
then by sensitivity analysis, it can be decided to choose high systems analyzing skills which allowing them to better learn
ranked input. the dynamic complexity of humanitarian systems in SD
• By means of SD models, the long-term effects of modeling. Furthermore, SD models can be developed by the
decisions on a defined humanitarian system can be accurate collection of variables and factors and as a result,
predicted. the effects of current decisions can be observed clearly.
• SD tool can be effectively used to assist humanitarian The beneficiary of system dynamic has been discussed on
decision making and provides managers with a set of tools analyze of humanitarian assistance as a complex and
that can help them learn in complex environments [16]. dynamic system involving multiple ‘actors’ which could
In particular, SD is a method to improve learning in manage to improved comprehension, better implantation in
complex systems within humanitarian-related projects, the humanitarian organization and useful in understanding
especially large infrastructure projects. However, learning the system behavior [24]. In addition, humanitarian
about complex dynamic systems requires more than only assistance has been suggested as a complex and dynamic
technical tools to create mathematical models. Because these system, rather than analyzing problems in a piecemeal way
tools are applied to the behavior of human as well as or exploring solutions concerning single characters, may
physical and technical systems [11]. present magnificent insight into efficient ways.
According to [17], models can be considered and used as The key in the literature reviews is to extend the search to
a basis for experimental investigations at lower expenses and the most probable and relevant literature related to research
in less time than trying changes in actual systems. questions [25]. In the following the research procedure is
described. To prove reliability of database source of
III. HUMANITARIAN AND SYSTEM DYNAMICS presented research, online databases by implementing
When a disaster affects population and people's various related subjects and different journals have been
vulnerability [18], the sequence forces people to handle considered. Two broadly used electronic databases such as
Scopus and Science Direct have been involved. These

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ISSN: 2078-0958 (Print); ISSN: 2078-0966 (Online)
Proceedings of the World Congress on Engineering 2018 Vol II
WCE 2018, July 4-6, 2018, London, U.K.

databases exist between the largest in terms of the set of vehicle fleet management in humanitarian organizations is
published papers with multiple subjects, including SD in used to illustrate an application of SD for humanitarian
humanitarian. In addition, the forward and backward search operations. Although, the authors present an example of over
have been applied to the captured papers and consideration three years of research, but less well-defined subsystem in
of well-known journals published by Springer, Wiley, and the humanitarian sector which can be analyzed using SD
Thompson have been regarded. Furthermore, the time method to the benefit of the overall humanitarian relief
horizon of the search is from 2003 to 2018, because of the operation.
lack of using SD in the humanitarian subject before 2003 To obtain a relevant and dynamic decision-support in
[26]. To search for papers, multiple search terms and 2013, [33] proposed an SD method for decision-makers to
keywords such as “system dynamic in humanitarian resolve the crisis based on performance evaluation, in
logistics”, “system dynamic in disaster”, “system dynamic in addition to the essential experience they undergo. The
emergencies”, and "system dynamic and social researches" research included limitation such as focusing on general
have been implemented. Regarding papers which applied crisis management and performance assessment concepts,
system dynamics in the humanitarian subject, all papers that mainly on humanitarian applications.
were not related to humanitarian filed have been excluded Besides, [34] modeled the delivery process of ready-to-
such as papers in health, hospital or construction use remedial food items by system dynamic method during
management subject. Following eliminating unrelated the immediate response phase of a disaster and find that pre-
papers, the search resulted in 20 papers (Table I). positioning inventory provides positive outcomes for the
It should be considered that in recent years, several beneficiaries, but at extremely high costs. However,
attempts are proposing to investigate the application neglected various parameters which are relevant to the
possibilities of systems dynamics in various humanitarian overall process of providing humanitarian relief in reality
fields (e.g. [27] and [28]). This distinction is further and focusing on a single disaster, single country, and single
exemplified in [26] which has developed an SD model to organization are supposed to some of the research’s
provide insights into the complex web of causes included limitation.
feedback loops and non-linear relationships and can lead to In 2014, [35] proposed a system dynamics model to
disaster and valuable lessons for organizational learning. analyze the behaviors of disrupted disaster relief supply
Reference [29] captured human behavior during flood chain by simulating the uncertainties. The author has
emergency evacuation process and the dynamic interactions presented the system dynamics as a popular approach to
among model components using a computer-based model by study such problems for its ability to deal with high levels of
SD approach. Furthermore, in 2005, Survey such as that uncertainty, causal ambiguity, and complexity. Nevertheless,
conducted by [30] has presented the need for a system questionnaire has not been used to collect expert's opinion
dynamics in humanitarian and discussed properties of for logistic planning.
complex systems. It mentioned that dynamic modeling is a In addition, preliminary, the marketing activities in the
relatively new technology that is little known in the nonprofit sector has been modeled by system dynamic in the
academic, business, and nonprofit communities. The research of [36] in 2014. The research illustrated potential
presented SD method in the research, simulated the impact benefits provided to nonprofit organizations by the
of the strategic business decisions on the financial well- application of the system dynamics approach in the field of
being of the Social Purpose Organization (SPO). Two strategic planning. Also, the proposed SD model created an
limitations have been concerned in the research; first, the awareness of circular relationships between the observed
results are unique to the specific context of SPO, second, the variables - starting with the problem, leading to solutions
process for managing this type of research might be different and returning to the problem itself. Though, the dynamic
for a large Non-Profit Organization (NPO) or for a for-profit relationship between thee constructs should be further
organization. analyzed taking into account the non-linear relationship
In 2008, [31] has demonstrated an improvement of between the variables in the system and time lags in mutual
complex system's features and declared that it allows a influences.
fundamental knowledge of the different factors capable for Furthermore, reference [37], applied the SD model for the
producing the dynamic complexity in humanitarian relief forecasting, prioritization, and distribution of critical
systems and is a significant step in the management of the supplies during relief operations in case of a hurricane event.
complex crisis. Besides, the proposed SD method describes In 2015, a considerable amount of papers has been
an opportunity to model various phenomena in humanitarian published on system dynamic in humanitarian. The
relief and to support manager’s design more effective policy effectiveness of the system dynamic technique has been
interventions in the long run. Also, [32] have presented a exemplified in a report by [38] that enable stakeholders to
system simulation of coal mine safety, a complex socio- experience playable system dynamic models linking
technical system, by SD approach and analyzed the kinds of geoinformation which is an innovative approach to immerse
unsafe behavior of employees in the coal mine accidents. disaster managers to be more effective and providing
In the following, reference [27] in 2011, declared that innovative ways to accelerate learning to better design and
system dynamics can capture the complexity of humanitarian implement humanitarian work.
systems and can improve humanitarian decision makers to The systems thinking paradigm can be seen in the case of
predict the effect of their decisions on the system the [23], [39], and [40] which presented in a manner that
performance over time. The well-defined issue of field emphasizes its adequateness and applicability in

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ISSN: 2078-0958 (Print); ISSN: 2078-0966 (Online)
Proceedings of the World Congress on Engineering 2018 Vol II
WCE 2018, July 4-6, 2018, London, U.K.

Humanitarian Logistics (HL) research. The presented parameters that can be easily modified as needed. Although,
systems thinking paradigm in the case of [23], making the the effects have been studied qualitatively, and the proposed
logistics systems in general and HL-systems in particular original SD model provides a first attempt to quantify them.
more sustainable. The method has been included suggestion Beside, training of decision-makers on flood response by
of taking into account interdependent research questions at means of SD model has been seen in the case of [43] in
once by regarding the uncertain relationships among the 2015. This case study confirms the capability of system
system’ components, which could be different items, dynamics (SD) model to capture the complex components.
belonging to various levels such as objects, organizations However, the research limitation is all influencing variables
and natural. This could offer a hopeful starting point for has not been considered due to the variety of flood events. In
dealing with the increased complexity of these days' the following, [44] developed a dynamic balanced scorecard
knowledge management in humanitarian. model for humanitarian relief organizations’ performance
Reference [40] allows analysis of complex problems in management. The developed model attempts to describe the
decisions and information effects on capacity and the role of relationships between strategic resources and how these
the media and donors in humanitarian process. But, the resources relate to the humanitarian organizations’ goal in
paper hold some limitation such as the selected variables and providing an appropriate response to the beneficiaries.
the presented simulation were drawn from the literature, and Although, the research comprises the limitation which is
just one type of disaster was investigated. solely based on relevant existing literature, therefore further
In addition, reference [41] aimed to enhance the range of practical research is needed to validate the
examples of system dynamics applications in humanitarian interdependencies of performance indicators. Finally, [45]
logistics with the objective of minimizing the response time has suggested an SD model for effective debris management
during disaster emergency response. The faster the response under different disaster scenarios to develop better disaster
time of each humanitarian logistic stakeholder, reduce the planning for recovery.
risk of fatalities. Reference, [42] attempted to propose an SD Table I presents most of the relevant reviews about
model to study the role of communication and logistical humanitarian publications associated with system dynamics
coordination between actors in an emergency disaster which and explained the purpose of each publication about system
breaks down a complex problem into a set of variables and dynamic as well.

Table I Review of system dynamic paper in humanitarian

No Year Author(s) Title Applied system dynamic in humanitarian

1 2003 David L. A system dynamics analysis of the Presents a system dynamics analysis of the 1992 Westray
Cooke Westray mine disaster mine disaster in Nova Scotia, Canada. The value of
simulation is its ability to capture a ‘‘mental model’’ of the
safety system, which can stimulate discussion among safety
experts as to the systemic causes of a disaster.
2 2005 Jennifer S. Dynamic Systems and Organizational Propose a system dynamic modeling process which
Tucker et al. Decision-Making Processes in facilitates organizational learning as leaders and use the
Nonprofits insight gained from adopting a systems approach to make
effective strategic decisions. The SD simulated the impact
of the strategic business decisions on the financial well-
being of the SPO.
3 2005 Slobodan P. Computer-based Model for Flood Develop a computer-based model for capturing human
Simonovic and Evacuation Emergency Planning behavior during flood emergency evacuation process
Sajjad Ahmad (movement of people from the region under the threat to
safety) using an SD approach.
4 2008 Paulo System Dynamics Modeling of Presents an SD methodology to represents an opportunity
Gonçalves Humanitarian Relief Operations to model different phenomena in humanitarian relief and to
help managers design more effective policy interventions in
the long run.
5 2009 LI Xian-gong System Dynamics Simulation of Coal Analyze the kinds of hazards and unsafe behavior of
et al. Mine Accident System Cause employees in the coal mine accidents of China by
system dynamics simulation method from organizational
and management perspective.
6 2011 Maria Besiou System dynamics for humanitarian Present the preliminary findings of an applied SD model to
et al. operations analyze a well-defined subsystem of humanitarian
operations, field vehicle fleet management.
7 2013 Carine Rongier Towards a crisis performance Propose a dynamic decision-support system to support the
et al. measurement system stakeholders in making accurate decisions while carrying
out a performance evaluation of the activities that run
during the crisis-response process.
8 2013 Nathan Kunz et Investing in disaster management Evaluate the effects of investing in disaster management
al. capabilities versus pre-positioning capabilities through system dynamics modeling. The
inventory: A new approach to disaster delivery process of ready-to-use therapeutic food items has
preparedness modeled during the immediate response phase of a disaster.

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Proceedings of the World Congress on Engineering 2018 Vol II
WCE 2018, July 4-6, 2018, London, U.K.

9 2014 Min Peng et al. Post-seismic supply chain risk Apply a system dynamics model to analyze the behaviors of
management: a system dynamics disrupted disaster relief supply chain by simulating the
disruption analysis approach for uncertainties associated with predicting post-seismic road
inventory and logistics planning network and delayed information.
10 2014 Ljiljana Najev Preliminary empirical analysis of the Presents the initial results of the application of a system
Čačija relationship dynamics between dynamics methodology to modeling the marketing activities
marketing activities and fundraising in the nonprofit sector.
success in nonprofit organizations
11 2014 Y. Cruz- A system dynamics approach to Develops an SD model for the forecasting, prioritization,
Cantillo humanitarian logistics and the and distribution of critical supplies during relief operations
transportation of relief supplies in case of a hurricane event.
12 2015 Pablo Suarez Rethinking engagement: innovations Offers an innovative approach to immerse disaster
in how humanitarians explore managers in geoinformation: participatory games that
geoinformation enable stakeholders to experience playable system dynamic
models, decisions and consequences in a way that is both
serious and fun.
13 2015 A. Remida A Systemic Approach to Sustainable Presents a systemic approach, which take into account the
Humanitarian Logistics economic and social dimensions of sustainability and the
increasing complexity of logistics systems within disaster
relief operations that emphasizes its applicability in
Humanitarian Logistics (HL) research.
14 2015 Otávio Costa et A system dynamics analysis of Demonstrate an SD simulation to analyze the interactions
al. humanitarian logistics coordination between media, donors and humanitarian organizations in
response to an abrupt natural disaster, such as tsunamis and
earthquakes.
15 2015 J. Voyer et al. Understanding Humanitarian Supply Present an SD model referring to humanitarian response to
Chain Logistics with System a natural hazard, but they do not focus on conflicting needs
Dynamics Modeling resulting from the stockpiling behavior of the population
and the needs for conducting relief operations.
16 2015 Danilo R. Quantifying communication Propose a discrete mathematical SD model to study the role
Diedrichs et al. effects in disaster response logistics, of communication and logistical coordination between
A multiple network system dynamics actors in an emergency disaster response operation, and to
model measure their impact on the number of lives saved and
dollars spent.
17 2015 Romana Training decision-makers Present an SD model to train decision-makers on flood
Berariu et al. in flood response with response by providing them the possibility to analyze and
system dynamics evaluate different scenarios.
18 2016 Tanti Octavia Coordination of Humanitarian Develop a detail coordination SD model in humanitarian
et al. Logistic Model Plan for Natural logistic in Indonesia.
Disaster in East Java, Indonesia
19 2017 Ali Toward a dynamic balanced Propose a conceptual framework for the development of a
Anjomshoae et scorecard model for humanitarian Dynamic Balanced Scorecard (DBSC) for humanitarian
al. relief organizations’ performance organizations, with a focus on cause-and-effect
management. relationships among KPIs of the humanitarian supply chain.
20 2018 Jooho Kim et A framework for assessing the Apply a system dynamics approach to evaluate the debris
al. resilience of a disaster debris removal performance for a resilient community.
management system

system users with a better understanding of the dynamic

behavior of systems. In this review, the aim was to assess
IV. CONCLUSION and review publications in the humanitarian field applying
System dynamic for the humanitarian subject is critical, in SD model. It can be helped to gain a better perspective about
terms of securing donor funding, accountability and the use of this method in the humanitarian subject. A set of
improving the relief mission (saving lives and reducing 20 papers were selected and reviewed which in general,
human suffering). The dynamic behavior of complex useful information about the concentration of publications
systems simulation problems in the disaster events, include a on SD model can be observed from this research and a new
wide number of quantitative and qualitative variables, non- outlook has been opened about the possible applications of
linear relationships between the variables and feedback system dynamics to donor’s organizations. The most obvious
interaction among them and action taken by the finding to emerge from this research is that System dynamic
humanitarian organizations and donors responsible for the can be a valuable tool in the complex systems; nevertheless,
emergency occurs. SD approach has the ability to capture lack of implementing SD approach is clearly observed in the
particular features of the human and environment behavior studies and the quantity of research is still limited in this
and relations during the emergency and to simulate it in an field. The proposed literature review aims to encourage
easy-use simulation model which makes it a powerful further research in applying the system dynamic for
planning and analysis tool aimed at preventing the loss of humanitarian organizations and presents the essential
life and the minimization of material damage and provide requirement of SD tool for reliable modeling of the complex

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ISSN: 2078-0958 (Print); ISSN: 2078-0966 (Online)
Proceedings of the World Congress on Engineering 2018 Vol II
WCE 2018, July 4-6, 2018, London, U.K.

environment. [23] A. Remida, “A Systemic Approach to Sustainable Humanitarian

Logistics”, In Humanitarian Logistics and Sustainability, 2015, pp.
11-29. Springer, Cham.
[24] M. Bjerneld, G. Lindmark, P. Diskett and M.J. Garrett, “Perceptions
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ISBN: 978-988-14048-9-3 WCE 2018

ISSN: 2078-0958 (Print); ISSN: 2078-0966 (Online)