Turning off the Tap

How the world can end plastic pollution

and create a circular economy

Executive Summary
© 2023 United Nations Environment Programme

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© Maps, photos and illustrations as specified

Cover photo: Picture © UNEP. Art Installation © Von Wong Productions, #TurnOffThePlasticTap. The Giant Plastic Tap
was an art installation by artist Benjamin Von Wong at the UN Headquarters in Nairobi. It was on display during the
United Nations Environment Assembly in 2022, when delegates agreed to establish an Intergovernmental Negotiating
Committee with the mandate to forge an international legally binding agreement to end plastic pollution.

Suggested citation: United Nations Environment Programme (2023). Turning off the Tap. How the world can end plastic
pollution and create a circular economy. Executive Summary. Nairobi.

Production: United Nations Environment Programme

https://www.unep.org/resources/turning-off-tap-end-plastic-pollution-create-circular-economy
Executive
Summary
In a historic decision at the fifth This report examines these issues and proposes a
systems change scenario - addressing the causes of
United Nations Environment Assembly plastic pollution, rather than just the symptoms. Such
a systems change will enable countries to turn off the
in March 2022, all 193 UN Member
tap and end plastic pollution while at the same time
States decided to end plastic pollution. transitioning towards safer and more stable jobs for
those currently working in the informal sector, and create
With negotiations on a binding legal business and job opportunities.
agreement by 2024 now underway, the
The report analyses the opportunities and impacts of
question is how to realise that goal. a systems change scenario. The scenario combines
reducing the most problematic and unnecessary plastic
While many technical solutions for a circular plastics uses with a market transformation towards circularity in
economy are known, the economic, fiscal and business plastics by accelerating three key shifts - Reuse, Recycle,
models to address the associated impacts while also and Reorient and Diversify – and actions to deal with the
safeguarding livelihoods are less clear. plastic pollution legacy (Figure ES 1).

Ending Plastic Pollution

Market transformation to circularity through
3 MARKET SHIFTS

REUSE RECYCLE T & DIVE

REDUCE IEN R
R

Deal
SI
REO

the size
FY

of the with the

problem LEGACY

Policies and Regulatory Framework

Figure ES 1: The systems change towards a new circular plastics economy.

Photo: Getty Images

Shift 1: Reuse Even with the market transformation approach, a

significant volume of plastics cannot be made circular
Accelerating the market for reusable products, to in the next 10 to 20 years and will require disposal
transform the throwaway economy to a reuse society, by solutions to prevent pollution. This refers to collecting
creating the enabling environment to ensure the reuse and responsibly disposing of plastics that cannot be
market has a stronger business case than the single-use reused or recycled, including plastics that are already in
plastics market. Studies show that reuse systems provide the environment as existing pollution, or are stocked or
the highest opportunity to reduce plastic pollution (a will enter in the economy e.g. in short-lived or durable
reduction of 30 per cent by 2040) by replacing some of the products designed without considering their circularity or
most problematic and unnecessary products (The Pew long-term use in the economy. It also refers to new ways
Charitable Trusts and Systemiq 2020). of financing collection and disposal of legacy plastics and
preventing microplastics from entering the economy and
Shift 2: Recycle the environment.
Accelerating the market for plastics recycling by ensuring
recycling becomes a more stable and profitable venture Global plastic production and use has grown exponentially
could reduce the amount of plastic pollution by an since the 1950s, with around nine million people employed
additional 20 per cent by 2040 (The Pew Charitable globally in polymer production and plastic processing
Trusts and Systemiq 2020). This will require an adequate industries (United Nations Industrial Development
availability of feedstock that can be recycled and that Organization (UNIDO) Data Portal - ISIC codes 2013 and
recycled materials can compete on a level playing field 2220). Light, strong and seemingly inexpensive plastics
with virgin materials. have permeated our lives, our societies and our economies
– but at a pace that has escalated into significant costs to
the environment, human health and the economy. Currently,
Shift 3: Reorient and Diversify
the world produces 430 million metric tons of plastics
Shaping the market for plastic alternatives to enable each year (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
sustainable substitutions, thus avoiding replacing plastic Development [OECD] 2022), of which over two-thirds are
products with alternatives that displace rather than reduce short-lived products which soon become waste, and a
impacts. Sustainable alternatives could reduce pollution growing amount (139 million metric tons in 2021 [Minderoo
by 17 per cent by 2040 (The Pew Charitable Trusts and 2021]) after one single use. Plastic production is set to
Systemiq 2020), but struggle to compete in markets with triple by 2060 if ‘business-as-usual’ continues (OECD 2022).
products made of virgin fossil fuel-based polymers owing
to a number of challenges: cost of product, consumer A growing number of researchers are quantifying the social,
demand and lack of appropriate regulations. economic and environmental costs of plastic pollution.
Scientific literature is linking chemicals in plastic and

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damage to human health at every stage of the plastic life • Reduce damage to human health and the environment
cycle including workers and ‘fence-line’ communities that by reducing exposure through an 80 per cent
live next door to plastic production and waste disposal reduction of plastic pollution; 0.5 Gt CO2-eq GHG
sites (Landrigan et al. 2023; Merkl and Charles 2022; UNEP emissions prevented annually; avoiding USD 3.3
2021c). As well as the potential for ecosystem impacts, trillion of environmental and social costs between
microplastics have been found in the deepest recesses of 2021 and 2040 (32.5 per cent cost savings).
the ocean, in pristine mountain glaciers, in breast milk and
human bodies (Braun et al. 2021; Ragusa et al. 2021; Jenner • Reduce liabilities, risks and litigation associated with
et al. 2022; Horvatits et al. 2022). Research also shows damage from plastics pollution.
that under a business-as-usual scenario, plastic could
• When the direct, environmental and social cost
emit 19 per cent of global greenhouse gas GHG emissions
savings are added up, more than USD 4.5 trillion are
allowed under a 1.5°C scenario by 2040, essentially making
saved, or 20.3 per cent reduction in costs overall.
the goal out of reach (The Pew Charitable Trusts and
Systemiq 2020). Significantly, the costs and impacts are The systems change cannot be done in isolation due to
borne by all but fall disproportionally on people in some of the cross-border flows of plastics, liabilities and risks:
the world’s poorest nations. it requires harmonised international action. Aligned and
coordinated measures and obligations between nations
This report indicates a heavy toll arising from the current
and across value chains will build synergies and create a
linear plastics economy with preliminary estimates of the
major shift in the plastics policy landscape. A harmonised
annual social and environmental costs linked to plastic
knowledge base, driven by strong national reporting
pollution ranging between USD 300-600 billion per year,
requirements, from which to take informed action,
with some estimates above USD 1.5 trillion per year
measure progress and refine regulatory interventions,
(Landrigan et al. 2023). Data shows potential litigation
depends on a globally coherent approach to monitoring
stemming from plastic pollution is estimated to exceed
and reporting. However, it is recognised that countries
USD 20 billion in corporate liabilities in one country alone
will start from different places to implement market
in the period 2022 to 2030 (Merkl and Charles 2022).
transformations and the specific policy mix appropriate
These lawsuits express the tension between different
to a particular country will need to consider the trade-offs
parts of society based on the profits received by the
built into policy choices and options.
plastic industry and the costs borne by society at large
but particularly by the most vulnerable, particularly within
the framework of a universally recognized human right to
a clean, healthy and sustainable environment (UN General
Assembly Resolution 76/300 of 28 July 2022).
What will this
future look like?
An economically viable solution for all stakeholders does
exist to achieve an end to plastic pollution. The transition
to a new plastics economy is the most cost-effective
way to ensure plastic pollution is substantially reduced
by 2040, with solutions at hand that require vigilance,
determination and creativity.
The analysis in this report examines the potential impacts
While significant, the investment costs of the systems of the systems change noted above. Figure ES 2, shows
change are less than the current investment trajectory, the plastic flows in the economy in 2040 in a business-
around USD 65 billion per year through 2040 as opposed as-usual linear economy (top) versus that projected in the
to USD 113 billion per year. But time is of the essence: A systems change scenario (bottom). Under the systems
5-year delay could lead to an increase of 80 million metric change scenario, the inflow of new (virgin) material into
tons of plastic pollution (The Pew Charitable Trusts and the economy of short-lived plastics is more than halved
Systemiq 2020). while the utility is unchanged, by increasing the flows of
materials that are reused or recycled into the economy
A transformed plastics economy will introduce new to 27 per cent of the total. As a result, the outflow of
economic benefits by bringing new business opportunities mismanaged plastic waste ending in the environment
particularly for those who adapt faster. By 2040, it is decreases by over 80 per cent.
estimated a new plastics economy could:
Turning off the tap of plastic pollution is within reach.
• Create opportunities for jobs, income and innovation: This compass points to an integrated package of policy
700,000 additional jobs; improved livelihoods for measures, clear pathways and new business models
millions of workers in informal settings; close to USD that are available to enable countries individually and
1.3 trillion (10.3 per cent) savings in direct public and collectively, to achieve that ambition.
private costs between 2021 and 2040.

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 408MMt
Total waste
generated

USE
73MMt
Sorted for
recycling

129MMt
Disposal

52MMt
Secondary plastics

227MMt
Mismanaged

380MMt 3.5MMt
Bio-based plastics
Fossil-based plastics

Systems change
scenario
216MMt
Total waste
generated

95MMt
Reuse
USE

111MMt
Sorted for
recycling

95MMt
Disposal

80MMt
Secondary plastics

41MMt
Mismanaged

149MMt
Fossil-based plastics
2.4MMt
Bio-based plastics

Figure ES 2: Possible plastic futures. Top: modelled plastic flows of short-lived plastics in 2040 under a business-as-
usual scenario; Bottom: modelled plastic flows of short-lived plastics in 2040 under a systems change scenario.
Source: UNEP modelling building on The Pew Charitable Trusts and Systemiq (2020) and OECD (2022).

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Photo: Getty Images