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Thayer, The New Norms - Adapting To Evolving International Security Trends

The document summarizes the key points from a talk given by Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer on adapting to evolving international security trends. The talk discusses China as the greatest threat to Australia due to its intent to dismantle the US alliance system and control the South China Sea. It also discusses other threats like cyber attacks and wars in Ukraine and Gaza. The talk explores if Australia's Southeast Asian neighbors see the same threats and opportunities for increased cooperation. It outlines emerging threats involving China and conflicts involving Taiwan.

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Carlyle Alan Thayer
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166 views13 pages

Thayer, The New Norms - Adapting To Evolving International Security Trends

The document summarizes the key points from a talk given by Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer on adapting to evolving international security trends. The talk discusses China as the greatest threat to Australia due to its intent to dismantle the US alliance system and control the South China Sea. It also discusses other threats like cyber attacks and wars in Ukraine and Gaza. The talk explores if Australia's Southeast Asian neighbors see the same threats and opportunities for increased cooperation. It outlines emerging threats involving China and conflicts involving Taiwan.

Uploaded by

Carlyle Alan Thayer
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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The New Norms – Adapting to Evolving

International Security Trends

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer


Talking Points – Session 1
Sixth Annual Protective Security Government Conference
sponsored by the Australian Security Research Centre
Canberra, November 1, 2023
1. What are the greatest threats
to Australia right now?
1. China’s intent
• China’s revisionism of regional and global order
• Dismantling of US alliance system by isolating and
weakening US security partners
• Turn the South China Seas into a Chinese lake
• Partnerships with Russia, North Korea, Iran…
• challenge to non-proliferation regime
• Arms race
What are the greatest threats
to Australia right now?
2. China’s Capabilities
• Pace and scope of China’s military modernisation
• nuclear stockpile and SSBNs
• naval combatants and aircraft carriers
• hypersonic missiles
• cyber warfare
Reduction of distance, less warning time, precision, and
lethality
What are the greatest threats
to Australia right now?

3. Wars in Ukraine and Gaza


• impact on global economic growth
• Inflation
• food security in developing countries
• global polarization
4. Cyber attacks on critical infrastructure
2. Do Australia’s Southeast Asian neighbours
see the same threats as we do in Australia?

• Caution against over generalization


• Blurs differences and nuance
• Same ‘laundry lists’ of threats but different meanings
• China-US rivalry is viewed as Major Power
competition
• Maritime disputes in South China Sea escalating
• Challenges to sovereignty and sovereign jurisdiction
Do Australia’s Southeast Asian neighbours see
the same threats as we do in Australia?
• Emphasis on non-traditional security challenges that
bundle together several security threats
• Climate change
• Pandemics
• Illegal migration
• Illegal, unregulated and unreported fishing (IUUF)
• Trafficking (persons, drugs…)
• Transnational crime
3. What are some of the opportunities in
relation to these security trends for Australia?
• Increased multilateral cooperation
• Quad
• AUKUS
• Trilateral (US-Japan-Australia)
• Increased bilateral cooperation
• Singapore
• Philippines
• Vietnam
4. What emerging threats
keep you up at night?
• A bundle of four issues
1. China’s employment of ‘three warfares’ (psychological,
legal and information) in conjunction with
2. Grey zone operations and lack of effective US/allied
counter-measures
3. US domestic political polarization and disfunction
4. Conflict involving Taiwan
5. How can organisations build a risk savy culture
both internally and across organisations?

• Training, training, and more training

• Collaboration, collaboration and more collaboration


6. Advising a group of students on study and career
choices right now what advice would you give them?
• Undertake tertiary education at the University of New
South Wales Canberra (at the Australian Defence
Force Academy)
• Major in one of the STEM disciplines
• Science
• Engineering
• Technology
• Mathematics
7. Trends and risks changing
over the next 10 to 20 years?

• Exponential growth of Artificial Intelligence


• Difficulties in global regulation
• Quantum computing
• Proliferation of disruptive technologies
• Unmanned weapon systems (space, air, sea and land)
8. Final Comment
• We are already facing ‘war by other means’ by China
• Its pursuit of ‘three warfares’ to change the status quo
• China is pursuing a revisionist long-term strategy of
regional if not global hegemony
• The ground is being laid for multi-form cyber attacks
on all matter of our critical infrastructure
• We must develop the capability to respond instantly
The New Norms – Adapting to Evolving
International Security Trends

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer


Talking Points – Session 1
Sixth Annual Protective Security Government Conference
sponsored by the Australian Security Research Centre
Canberra, November 1, 2023

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