ASSESSMENT OF THE CONSTRAINTS AND POTENTIALS OF

BREAD WHEAT (TRITICUM AESTIVUM, L.) PRODUCTION IN

SINANA AND GASERA DISTRICTS OF BALE ZONE,
SOUTHEASTERN ETHIOPIA

BY: DEREJE DEMISSIE SHASHO (M.Sc.)

NOVEMBER, 2022
ARSI ROBE, ETHIOPIA
 RESUMÉ, CV
A: Personal Identification

Name: Dereje Demissie Shasho

Age: 50 Years

Sex: Male

Date of Birth: February 08, 1973

Place of Birth: Ligeba, Lode Hetosa, Arsi Zone, Ethiopia

Marital Status: Bachelor

Health Status: Excellent

Nationality: Ethiopian

Address: Arsi Robe town, Arsi Zone, Ethiopia

Mobile Phone: +251922304635; +251954687014

Email addresses: [email protected]; or [email protected]

B: Educational History

SN Level Name of University/school Year of attendance Awards

1 Postgraduate SGS, AAU Sep. 1995-jan. 1999 M.Sc. degree
2 Undergraduate Science Faculty, AAU Sep. 1989-Nov.6, 1993 B.Sc. degree
3 Grade 12 Asella Comp. Sec. School Sep.1988-June 1989 Certificate
4 Grade 9-11 Huruta Senior Sec. School Sep. 1985-jun. 1988 Not Applicable

C: Work Experience

Employer organization Position Main Responsibilities Duration

Self-employed Consultant and - Undertaking research works in
Freelance Worker collaboration with the principal
July 1, 2007-
investigators
Present
- Supervising the activities of
investigation being undertaken,

i
‫درج دمسى‬
 - Assisting in designing database and
analyzing collected data,
- Assisting in writing up of the
research report, etc.
Rehoboth Medical - Instructing students taking different Apr. 2006- Jun.
College ICT course works related practices 2006
Chilalo University DEAN, Academic - Administrative activities Nov. 2003-Feb.
College Dean and Instructor - Managerial functions 2004
- Instructing courses
- Advising students
Jimma Teachers’ College - Lecturer - Instructing courses Sep. 1, 2000- Feb.
- Advising students 29, 2002
- Supervising laboratory works
- Conducting action and applied
research works
- Attending educational seminars and
workshops as well as other
conferences offered by experts
- Invigilating examinations
- Marking examination papers of
distance and extension program
students
- Giving tutorial sessions for distance
students as per the time table of the
college and/or MOE
Bahir Dar Teachers’ - Lecturer - Instructing courses Dec. 1, 1993 –
College - Assistant lecturer - Advising students Sep. 30. 1999
- Graduate - Supervising laboratory works
Assistant - Conducting action and applied
research works
- Invigilating examinations
- Facilitating and guiding laboratory
works
- Marking laboratory reports of
students
- Setting equipments, materials and
reagents enquired for the practical
sessions
- Attending educational seminars and
workshops as well as other
conferences offered by experts

D: Qualification Areas

Area of experience &

Examples of expertise and qualification
qualification
- Basics of the sanitation science principles, guidelines and recommendations
developed and implemented by WHO and UN member countries
Sanitation
- Assessing sanitation status of communities and prioritizing promotion and
interventional areas
- Basics of the personal hygiene principles, guidelines and recommendations
Personal Hygiene
developed and implemented by WHO and UN member countries
ii
‫درج دمسى‬
 - Assessing personal hygiene status of individuals and food handlers in urban
and rural settings as well as food and drinking establishments and prioritizing
promotion and interventional areas
- Basics of the public health related principles, guidelines and
recommendations developed and implemented by WHO and UN member
countries
Public Health
- Assessing personal public health related problems and practices, attitudes
and knowledge of individuals and HHs in urban and rural settings and
prioritizing promotion and interventional areas
- HIV culturing, phenotyping, sequencing and related issues
Human Retrovirology
- Molecular biology of HIV-1 isolates, HMA, PCR, NASBA, etc.
- Five differential, coulter counting, PBMC isolation and storage, FASCAN
Immunology
assays, etc.
Serology - ELISA, WESTERN- AND Southern blotting, Agglutination and many others
Microbiology - Almost all laboratory techniques and theoretical principles

E: Computer Related Skills and Knowledge

Area name Skills & Competencies Examples of are if relevant

Microsoft Word Excellent Processing, editing, writing, etc.
Excellent Creating; entering, exporting, analyzing, etc. of data;
Microsoft Excel
producing reports;
Excellent Creating and designing charts; entering, analyzing and editing
Microsoft Access
data, etc.
Microsoft Publisher Excellent
Microsoft Excellent Creating lecture notes, presentation of research works, etc.
PowerPoint
Very good SPSS, IBM SPSS21, Stata Version 8 to Version 12, Harvard
Utility software
Graphics, Epi-Info version 5 to version 7 and some others
Programming Good C++, Visual, Visual C+, Visual C++, Java, etc.
languages

F: Language Skills

Language type Skills

Reading Writing Speaking Understanding
English Excellent Excellent Very good Excellent
Afan Oromo Excellent Excellent Excellent Excellent
Amharic Excellent Very good Excellent Excellent

G: Publications
I: Published
[1]. HIV-1 Subtype C Syncytium- and Non-Syncytium-Inducing Phenotypes and Co-
Receptor Usage Among Ethiopian Patients with AIDS. AIDS, 1999; 13(11):1305-1311.
II: Unpublished- I have undertaken and produced some articles listed below only as examples

iii
‫درج دمسى‬
 [1]. Retrospective Evaluation of Ceftriaxone Utilization in Inpatient Wards at Asella
Referral and Teaching Hospital, Central Ethiopia
[2]. Metronidazole Injection Use Evaluation in Inpatient Wards at Asella Referral and
Teaching Hospital, Central Ethiopia
[3]. Assessment of Preference of Pregnant Women for Place of Delivery and Factors
Associated with Institutional Delivery among Ante Natal Care (ANC) Service
Attending Women at Asella Town in Governmental Institutions, Central Ethiopia
[4]. Pregnant Women Preference of Place of Delivery and Factors Associated with
Institutional Delivery among ANC Attending Women at Asella town Governmental
Health Facilities
[5]. Magnitude, Factors Associated with Successful Vaginal Birth after Cesarean Section
and Its Outcomes in Bishoftu General Hospital, Ethiopia
[6]. Assessment of the Magnitudes and Correlates of Anemia among Pregnant Women
Attending Antenatal Care Service Clinics in Robe Didea Hospital, Southeastern
Ethiopia
[7]. Mechanical Ventilation Weaning Outcomes and Associated Factors among Patients
Admitted to Adult Intensive Care Unit of Governmental Hospitals, Addis Ababa,
Ethiopia: Cross-Sectional Retrospective Study Design
[8]. Assessment of Determinants of Client Satisfaction with Quality of Nursing Care
among Patients Admitted to Adults Ward in Adama Hospital
[9]. Prevalence of Undernutrition and Associated Factors among Family Planning
Attendants in Asella Town Governmental Health Institution, Central Ethiopia
[10]. Prevalence of Protein Energy Malnutrition (PEM) Among Children Six Months to Five
Years of Age in Bilalo Town, Arsi Zone, Ethiopia
[11]. Determinants of Utilization of Integrated Community Case Management Services for
Childhood Illnesses among Mothers in Hetosa Woreda, Arsi Zone
[12]. Prevalence of Undernutrition and Associated Factors among Adult Tuberculosis
Patients in Asella Hospital and Surrounding Health Facilities, Central Ethiopia
[13]. Peoples’ Attitude towards Using Family Planning Methods: The Case Study of Sire
Town, Central Ethiopia
[14]. Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices of Family Planning Methods among Pregnant
Mothers Attending ANC Clinic at Arsi Robe Health Center, South East Ethiopia

iv
‫درج دمسى‬
 [15]. Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices of Mothers towards Prevention and Control of
Childhood Diarrheal Diseases in Gonde Town, Central Ethiopia
[16]. And many others that I could present upon request.
H: Referees

1. Prof. Endashaw Bekele (PhD); AAU, Department of Biology, Tel.: +251947407077.

2. Prof. Yalemtsehay Mekonnen (PhD), AAU, Dept. of Biology, Tel.: +251913244396.
3. Prof. Amare Gessesse (PhD), AAU, Dept. of Biology, Tel.: +251911146855.
4. Dr. Dawit Abate (PhD); AAU, Department of Biology, Tel.: +25111114250.
5. Prof. Beyene Petros (PhD); AAU, Department of Biology, Tel.: +25111114250.

v
‫درج دمسى‬
 ‫درج دمسى‬

TABLE OF CONTENTS
RESUMÉ, CV i
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ix
LIST OF TABLES x
LIST OF FIGURES xi
ABSTRACT xii
1. INTRODUCTION 1
1.1. Background of the Study 1
1.2. Statement of the Problem 3
1.3. Objective of the study 5
1.3.1. General objective 5
1.3.2. Specific objective 5
1.4. Research Questions 5
1.5. Significance of the Study 6
2. LITERATURE REVIEW 7
2.1. Bread Wheat Production in Sub-Saharan Africa and Ethiopia 7
2.1.1. Potential Bread Wheat-Producing Areas in Ethiopia 8
2.2. Bread Wheat Production Opportunities 9
2.2.1. Diverse Agro-Ecological, Climatic and Related Factors 9
2.2.2. Gaps between Consumer Demands and Supplies, and Related Factors 10
2.2.3. Genetic Resources and Researches Related Factors 11
2.2.4. Favorable Governmental Policies, Regulations and Related Factors 12
2.2.5. Other Factors 13
2.3. Bread Wheat Production Constraints 14
2.3.1. Environmental Constraints 14
2.3.2. Agronomic Constraints 15
2.3.3. Economic Constraints 16
2.3.4. Constraints Related to Policy Packages and Regulations 17
2.3.5. Research, Extension Services and Other Constraints 18
2.4. Conceptual Frame Work of the Study 20
3. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY 21
3.1. Study Settings and Its Descriptions 21
3.2. Study Approach and Design 23
3.3. Populations and Data Sources 25
vi
‫درج دمسى‬
 ‫درج دمسى‬

3.3.1. Sources of Data 25

3.3.2. Source Populations 25
3.3.3. Study Populations 25
3.4. Sample Size and Sampling Techniques 25
3.4.1. Sample Size Determination 25
3.4.2. Sampling Procedures and Techniques 27
3.5. Variables of the Study 27
3.5.1. Dependent Variables 27
3.5.2. Independent Variables 27
3.6. Instrument of Data Collection 27
3.7. Methods of Data Processing and Analysis 28
3.8. Ethical Considerations 29
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 30
4.1. Socio-demographic Characteristics of the Respondents 30
4.2. Descriptive Statistics of the Variables of Study 32
4.3. Correlations between Dependant and Explanatory Variables 33
4.4. Land Owned and Bread Wheat Production Status 35
4.5. Potentials (Opportunities) of Bread Wheat Production 36
4.5.1. Diverse Agro-Ecological, Climatic and Related Factors 36
4.5.2. Gaps between Demands and Supplies, Genetic resources and Research 38
4.5.3. Favorable Governmental Policies and Regulations, and Others 42
4.6. Constraints (Challenges) of Bread Wheat Production 44
4.6.1. Environmental Constraints 44
4.6.2. Agronomic Constraints 47
4.6.3. Economic Constraints 50
4.6.4. Policy Packages, Regulations, Research and Extension Services 52
4.7. Relationships between Production Status, Constraints and Opportunities 56
4.7.1. Test of Hypotheses 56
4.7.2. Regression Analyses 61
4.7.3. Test of Assumptions and Model Fitness 63
5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 67
5.1. Conclusions 67
5.2. Recommendations 68
6. REFERENCES 69
vii
‫درج دمسى‬
 ‫درج دمسى‬

7. APPENDIX 77
7.1. Appendix I: Item wise t-test statistics to categorize as potential or challenge 77

viii
‫درج دمسى‬
 ‫درج دمسى‬

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

AACCSAA Addis Ababa Chamber of Commerce and Sectoral Association Analysis
CIMMYT Centro Internationale de Mejoramiento de Maíz y Trigo (Spanish:
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center)
CSA Central Statistics Agency
EC Ethiopian Calendar
EIAR Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research
FAO Food and Agricultural Organization
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
FAOSTAT Food and Agriculture Organization’s Statistics
FAS Foreign Agricultural Service
FVs Farmers’ Varieties
GAIN Global Agricultural Information Network
GAIN Global Agricultural Information Network
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GDP Gross Domestic Product
HH Households
IMVs Improved Varieties
ISSR International Society of Sports and Nutrition
MT Metric Tons
NPHC National Population and Housing Census
R&D Research and Development
RNS River Nile State
SNNPR Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region
SPSS Statistical Package for the Social Sciences
SSA Sub-Saharan Africa
USDA United States Department of Agriculture
USDA United States Department of Agriculture

ix
‫درج دمسى‬
 ‫درج دمسى‬

LIST OF TABLES
Table Page
Table 3.1: Numbers of populations and HHs and sample sizes by Woreda and Kebeles 26
Table 4.1: Socio-demographic features of the respondents HHs in Sinana and Gasera
districts of Bale Zone, Ethiopia, 2022(367) 30
Table 4.2: Descriptive statistics of the dependent and explanatory variables 32
Table 4.3: Effects of the explanatory variables on bread wheat production volumes 33
Table 4.4: Correlations among dimensions of potentials and constraints, and BWPV 34
Table 4.5: Amount of land owned and bread wheat production among respondents 35
Table 4.6: Respondent’s agreement status on diverse agro-ecological, climatic and related
factors 36
Table 4.7: Respondent’s agreement status on gaps between demands and supplies 38
Table 4.8: Respondent’s agreement status on genetic resources and research 40
Table 4.9: Respondent’s agreement status on favorable governmental policies and
regulations, and others 42
Table 4.10: Respondent’s agreement status on environmental constraints 45
Table 4.11: Respondent’s agreement status on agronomic constraints 48
Table 4.120: Respondent’s agreement status on economic constraints 50
Table 4.13: Respondent’s agreement status on policy packages, regulations, research, and
extension services 53
Table 4.14: Regression analysis for factors & bread wheat production volumes (BWPV) 58
Table 4.15: Regression Analysis on effect of factors on BWPV using one-way ANOVA 60
Table 4.16: Model summary for weighted potentials and constraints 60
Table 4.17: Fisher’s exact test on effect of overall factors on BWPV 61
Table 4.18: Coefficients of the seven constructed factors and their constant 61
Table 4.19: Coefficients of weighted effects of potential and constraint factors 62

x
‫درج دمسى‬
 ‫درج دمسى‬

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure Page
Figure 2.1: Conceptual Framework of the study ................................................................ 20
Figure 3.1: Location Map of Sinana and Gasera districts in Ethiopia ............................. 23
Figure 4.1: Educational status of the respondent heads of sampled households ............. 31
Figure 4.2: The respondent heads of sampled households by districts ............................. 31
Figure 4.4: Justifications for attainment of assumptions and model fitness .................... 65
Figure 4.5: Justifications for attainment of assumptions and model fitness .................... 66

xi
‫درج دمسى‬
 ‫درج دمسى‬

ABSTRACT
Bread wheat is a cereal crop, which is produced in most parts of Ethiopia under contextual
constraints and potentials varying from one agroecological and climatic zone to another.
Ethiopia is the second next to Egypt in Africa in wheat production which is 4.54 million tons.
Except Sinana district, there were no comprehensive and diversified studies on the constraints
and potentials of bread wheat production in Sinana and Gasera districts so far. Thus, this study
assessed the constraints and potentials of bread wheat production and bread wheat production
status in selected rural Kebeles’ households of the two districts. Community based explanatory
and quantitative study approach that applied descriptive cross-sectional study design was
employed among 389 households which were selected using multi-stage sampling technique.
Data was collected using semi-structured survey questionnaires. Collected data was checked,
edited and coded; then exported to SPSS Version 21 for further analysis. Both descriptive and
inferential statistical methods of data analysis were employed. Necessary ethical clearances
were obtained from Madda Walabu University for undertaking the study. Average of total land
owned was 5.99(±1.543) hectares. However, land used for agricultural production was
5.49(±1.528) hectares. Out of these, farm land used for wheat production was 3.62(±1.098)
hectares, respectively. The average amount of bread wheat produced by the wheat grower
farming HHs in 2021/22 fiscal year was 148.16 (±56.115) quintals (40.38 quintals/ha/year).
The mean value of overall potentials was 3.1887; and all constraints was 2.2429. That of
environmental constraints was 2.5429; and agronomic constraints was 2.3374. Diverse agro-
ecological, climatic and related factors (r=0.946; p-value=0.000) and gaps between demands
and supplies, genetic resources and research (r=0.037; p-value=0.480) had associations with
bread wheat production volumes. Similarly, favorable governmental policies and regulations
and others (r=0.941; p-value=0.000) and all potentials (r=0.830; p-value=0.000) had
associations with bread wheat production volumes. Again, environmental constraints (r=-
0.887; p-value=0.000), agronomic constraints) (r=-0.880; p-value=0.000), economic
constraints (r=-0.858; p-value=0.000), research and extension services (r=-0.921; p-
value=0.000), and overall challenges (r=-0.902; p-value=0.000) had statistically significant
correlation with the bread wheat production volumes. Diverse agro-ecological, climatic and
related factors (89.50%), and favorable governmental policies and regulations and other
factors (88.60%) made impacts on bread wheat production volumes respectively. The
environmental constraints (76.80%), agronomic constraints (77.50%), economic constraints
(73.60%), and research, extension services and other constraints (84.70%) made impacts on
bread wheat production volume consecutively. All four dimensions of the challenges and
overall pooled constraints had statistically significant negative correlations with the bread
wheat production volumes. However, diverse agro-ecological, climatic and related factors,
favorable governmental policies and regulations and other related factors, and all potentials
had statistically significant positive correlations with the bread wheat production volumes.
Finally, it seems necessary if appropriate interventional strategies are developed that could
alter the adverse impacts of environmental, genetic resources and other barriers of bread
wheat production and productivity by concerned bodies.

Keywords: Wheat, Production, Constraints, Potentials, Sinana & Gasera districts, Ethiopia

xii
‫درج دمسى‬
 1. INTRODUCTION
1.1. Background of the Study
Ethiopia with an estimated population of approximately 113 million people, its economy relies
heavily on agriculture. Agriculture is reportedly the backbone of Ethiopia's economy that
accounts for the country's national gross domestic product (GDP) ranging from 45% to more
than 85% (Sultan Usman, 2016; Adugnaw Anteneh and Dagninet Asrat, 2020) and according
to CIA (2018), it contributes over 35.8 percent to the national GDP. According to Adugnaw
Anteneh and Dagninet Asrat (2020), crop production is a significant contributor to GDP which
accounts for roughly 28% of all agricultural sub-sectors.

According to Food and Agriculture Office of the United Nations (FAO) (2020), bread wheat
(Triticum aestivum, L.) is an indispensable food in the diets of several Ethiopian that provides
about 15% of the caloric intake for the country’s over 90 million populations which places it
second after maize (Minot, Warner, Lemma, et al., 2015). Closely according to FAO (2014),
Wheat and wheat products account for 14 percent of total calorie consumption in the country,
making wheat the second most significant food behind maize (19%) and ahead of teff (10%),
sorghum (11%) and enset (12%). In Ethiopia, wheat is also the fourth largest cereal crop
produced by close to 5 million smallholder farmers, which makes about 35% of all small
farmers. After South Africa, Ethiopia is the second largest wheat producer in sub-Saharan
Africa (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2015a, b).

Bread wheat is a single primary food crop imported from abroad. Its import increased by an
average of 6.6% over the past decade. In 2008, Ethiopia imported more than a million tons of
bread wheat, which was equivalent to about 40 percent of the total domestic production and
almost 250% of the marketed volume (Rashid and Lemma, 2014). In 2013/14, the country
imported 1.39 million metric tons, which is about 34 percent of the domestic production and
above 160% of the marketed wheat in the country (Minot, Warner, Lemma, et al., 2015). An
enormous increase in domestic production and import of wheat, however, has not helped to
reverse the increasing trend in wheat price. Official statistics on consumer prices indicate that
prices of wheat and wheat products rather increased substantially (Anbessie Debebe, 2021).
Samuel Gebreselassie and colleagues (Gebreselassie, Mekbib and Matthias, 2017) pointed out
that there is a growing wheat supply deficit in the coming decades.

Bread wheat is grown between 6°-16° N latitude and 35°-42° E longitude, at altitudes ranging
from 1500 to 3000 meters above sea level (masl). This implies that the best and most suitable

1
agro-ecological zones are between 1900 and 2700 meters above sea level (Bekele et al., 2000).
The Arsi, Bale, Shewa, Illubabor, Western Hararghe, Sidamo, Tigray, Northern Gonder, and
Gojjam zones produce the majority of Ethiopia's wheat (Bekele et al., 2000). Oromia (57.4
percent), Amhara (27 percent), SNNPR (8.7%), and Tigray (6.2 percent) produce the majority
of the country's wheat (CSA, 2014).

Wheat, like other cereal grains grown in the country, has a wide range of applications. Wheat
grain is used in Ethiopia to make a variety of traditional and modern processed foods such as
injera and other industrial processed foods like pasta and macaroni (Nigussie et al., 2015).
Wheat straw is also extensively used as a roof tacking material and as animal fodder. As a
result, wheat is an essential cereal crop that should be prioritized in terms of both production
and marketing.

In Ethiopia, bread wheat production is constrained by multiple factors such as climate,

agroecology, technology, institutions through timely or delayed provision of fertilizers and
improved bread wheat seeds and many others, infrastructure, marketing, and policy are among
others. One of the major challenges in transforming the traditional smallholder agriculture is
lack of agricultural innovations and their dissemination among smallholder producers. Policy
focus and intervention on development and adoption of new and high yielding crop cultivars
with strategic importance in addressing challenges of production appears to be imperative
(Degye Goshu, Tigabu Degu and Fatunbi Oluwole, 2019). Low soil nitrogen (N) availability,
for example, is frequently the key nutritional issue limiting crop output (Andrews et al., 2004).
Again, Mudasser, Hussain and Aslam (2001) and their findings showed that environmental,
agronomic, and economic constraints faced by farmers in the two countries, in addition to
policy packages and regulations, and the role of extension services in disseminating
information right up to the base level. However, there are various potentials that can help to
facilitate and improve wheat output and productivity around the world. For example, the use
of inorganic nitrogen fertilizer has become a significant technique for increasing crop yields
and grain quality (Andrews et al., 2004). However, surface runoff, leaching, soil denitrification,
volatilization, and gaseous plant emission usually result in a considerable amount of the applied
nitrogen fertilizer being lost. As a result, nitrogen control was critical for maximizing economic
yield, maximizing water efficiency, and reducing environmental contamination (Corbeels et
al., 1999). As a result, investigating into wheat production potentials and constraints in Sinana
and Gasera districts of Bale zone, Oromia Regional State, Southeastern Ethiopia was
unquestionable and very important.

2
1.2. Statement of the Problem
Improving and maximizing wheat production and productivity necessitated the identification
and documentation of well-articulated empirical evidence on wheat production potentials (or
opportunities) and constraints (or challenges) for all agro-ecological and climatic zones.
However, previous empirical findings failed to link the constraints (or challenges) and
potentials (or opportunities) of wheat production to agro-ecological and climatic zones,
allowing the constraints and potentials to be manipulated in order to maximize and increase
wheat production and productivity. Except for the Sinana district for which a few potentials
and constraints were reported, comprehensive and diversified potentials and restrictions of
wheat production among farmers in the rural Kebeles of Gasera and Sinana districts of Bale
Zone had not been reported.

Scholars argued that having well-articulated and documented empirical evidence on the
constraints and potentials of bread wheat production was critical for developing and
implementing interventional strategies that could address and/or mitigate the negative effects
of wheat production constraints while also properly exploiting the potentials of wheat
production to increase bread wheat production, productivity and yields (Bultossa Terefe, 2018;
CGIAR, 2016; Mudasser, Hussain and Aslam, 2001; etc.). In relation to the above assertions,
Bultossa Terefe (2018) asserted that the constraints and opportunities of wheat in the specific
study area had to be studied, identified, prioritized, recorded, and appropriate solutions should
be searched to suggest relevant policy recommendations that help increase production and
productivity.

Previous research findings on the constraints (or difficulties) and potentials (or opportunities)
of wheat production demonstrated that there are various, diversified, and even contradicting
constraints (or problems) and potentials (or opportunities) of wheat production around the
world. For example, CGIAR (2016) conducted an empirical study to determine the challenges
or constraints of wheat production, and the findings revealed that competition for land, soil
degradation, overdrawn and polluted water supplies, climate change (CC), diminishing genetic
resources, pests and diseases, post-harvest losses, and other factors are major challenges of
wheat production in various countries around the world. In addition, because Sinana area
farmers use a mechanized wheat production system, there is a lack of farmer awareness on
effective crop management practices and a high cost of combine harvesting constrained bread
wheat production.

3
Moreover, Mudasser, Hussain and Aslam (2001) conducted a comparative analysis of the
constraints to wheat land-and water productivity in India and Pakistan, and their findings
revealed that environmental, agronomic, and economic constraints, as well as policy packages
and regulations (distribution of certified and improved seed, quality control, variety protection,
and discouraging the sowing of banned varieties, etc.), faced by farmers in both countries
Farmers also cited a lack of financing, a lack of availability and efficacy of many herbicides
on the market, an insufficient supply of fertilizers, and a lack of capital to purchase farm inputs
as issues affecting wheat production and productivity in the study area.

So far, a lot of study publications have been published about wheat in various locations of
Ethiopia. Tadesse et al. (2018) examined wheat production and breeding difficulties and
potential in Sub-Saharan African countries in the face of climate change. Adugnaw Anteneh
and Dagninet Asrat (2020) reviewed the outcomes of empirical studies conducted in Ethiopia
between 2005 and 2017 in several regional states, zones, and districts on the difficulties and
prospects of wheat production and marketing. Their meta-analysis indicated that growing
wheat largely for subsistence by small-scale farmers using a rain-fed production system with
little irrigation constrained wheat production and productivity and hence wheat production and
productivity are relatively low.

Chernet Worku and Mamaru Abebe (2020) conducted a review of wheat production and
commercialization in Ethiopia, mostly using secondary sources such as FAOSTAT, CSA, and
various published publications. Their research revealed that the primary restrictions to wheat
production in the country were rain failure, increased fertilizer prices, and delayed delivery,
soil degradation, manpower shortages, lack of credit access, lack of draft power, and the
prevalence of crop illnesses on the producer side.

Still, Ahmed, Sulaiman, and Mohd (2011) used a structured questionnaire with the Cobb-
Douglas production function, descriptive statistics, and partial budgeting to examine wheat
production and economics among 70 randomly selected respondents. Their findings revealed
that the most agricultural constraint was irrigation water cost, with the average age of tenants,
family labor, distance from home to field, hired labor, distance of farm to source of irrigation,
number of irrigation, irrigation term, and lack of awareness among wheat growers, particularly
about wheat technical package, being the most factors affecting wheat productivity under the
study. Another independent study was conducted in Ethiopia's Arsi, Bale, and West Shewa
administrative zones to identify the primary threats to wheat production in rust-prone agro-

4
ecologies among 270 wheat-growing households using participatory rural appraisal tools, a
semi-structured questionnaire, and focus group discussions (Netsanet Hei, Hussein Ali
Shimelis, and Mark Laing, 2017). Wheat rust infections, high fertilizer costs, a lack of better
seeds, and high seed prices were all identified as major restrictions to wheat output in that
study.

However, there was no any systematic empirical study conducted to assess the constraints and
potentials of bread wheat production in the Sinana and Gasera districts of the Bale Zone
Southeastern Ethiopia as far as the knowledge of the researcher was concerned. Therefore, this
study aimed to assess the constraints and potentials of bread wheat production in the Sinana
and Gasera districts of the Bale Zone of Southeastern Ethiopia. Rural Kebeles would be ranked
based on the production volumes obtained by farmers in the 2013 E. C. (2020/21) fiscal year
in order to fill those identified knowledge gaps.

1.3. Objective of the study

1.3.1. General objective
The general objective of the study was to assess the status, the constraints and potentials of
bread wheat production among selected wheat grower households in the rural Kebeles of
Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone, Southeastern Ethiopia.

1.3.2. Specific objective

The specific objectives of the study were:

 To determine the status of wheat production in selected rural Kebeles of Sinana and
Gasera districts of Bale Zone.
 To identify the major constraints or challenges of wheat production in selected rural
Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone.
 To identify the potentials or opportunities of wheat production in selected rural Kebeles
of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone.
 To distinguish the relationship existing between the status of wheat production in
selected rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone, and the major
constraints or challenges and the main potentials/opportunities of wheat production.

1.4. Research Questions

In order to guide the study, the following basic research questions were formulated that were
answered upon successful accomplishment of the study. Those were:

5
  What is the status of wheat production in selected rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera
districts of Bale Zone?
 What are the major constraints or challenges of wheat production in selected rural
Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone?
 What are the potentials or opportunities of wheat production in selected rural Kebeles
of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone?
 What kinds of relationships exist between the status of wheat production and the major
constraints or challenges; between the status of wheat production and the main
potentials or opportunities of wheat production?

1.5. Significance of the Study

The findings of the study would enrich existing empirical literature on the major issues of the
study. Still it might has enriched empirical knowledge on the main thematic issues of this study.
Moreover, the findings of the study would contribute a lot towards designing and implementing
evidence based intervention strategies and campaigns that would tackle the adverse effects of
the constraints or the challenges and capitalize on the existing potentials of wheat production
on the yields and productivity of wheat in Sinana and Gasera districts. Furthermore, the
findings of the study would generate baseline evidence that may be used by other researchers
who want to make thorough and detailed investigation into the thematic issues of the study in
the future; and this study would be used as baseline data for agricultural extension
agents/workers and other agricultural stakeholders and policy makers who were interested to
minimize or overcome the adverse impacts of wheat production constraints as well as to
properly exploit wheat production potentials/opportunities in order to maximize and increase
the yields and productivity of wheat in the two districts of the study and other districts having
the same agroecological and climatic zones, and agronomic practices in Ethiopia.

6
 2. LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1. Bread Wheat Production in Sub-Saharan Africa and Ethiopia
Ethiopia preceded South Africa in terms of wheat production (United States Department of
Agriculture, 2019) with the 2016/17 cropping season, the crop ranked fourth in terms of area
covered (1,696,082.59 ha) and quantity generated 4537853.339 metric tons, behind maize, teff,
and sorghum (Central Statistical Authority, 2017).

Wheat production is seasonal, with the majority of it taking place in the Ethiopian highlands, a
suitable agro-ecological zone with a bi-modal rainfall pattern. With 1.89 million tons of wheat
produced in 2016, Central-Eastern Oromia, which includes the Arsi, West Arsi, Bale, and East
Shewa zones, accounts for over 42% of Ethiopia's total wheat production. The value chain has
limits at the production, aggregation, processing, and distribution nodes, however the severity
of these constraints varies by geographic zone and production system.

On average, crop agriculture, which accounts for the majority of total production and area
coverage (CSA, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2018) accounted for 68 percent of Ethiopia's
agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) (Adugnaw Anteneh and Dagninet Asrat, 2020).

Cereals cultivation and selling are a source of income for millions of smallholder households,
allowing them to obtain high-quality produce for consumption and sale (Taffesse et al., 2012).
Teff, wheat, maize, and sorghum account for over three-quarters of the total farmed land and
are the country's main cereal crops. Wheat can be grown by both small-scale subsistence
farmers and large-scale commercial farms in Ethiopia (Tadesse et al., 2018). Small-scale
farmers, on the other hand, outnumber large-scale commercial farms in terms of area covered
and yield. Large-scale commercial farms, according to Minot et al. (2015), have just 50–80
thousand hectares of land and produce 1.52 million quintals of wheat. Ethiopia is one of the
top sub-Saharan African wheat producers, with 4.2 million quintals produced on 1.7 million
hectares of land (Goshu et al., 2019). It is second only to South Africa in terms of overall wheat
area covered and volume produced (Hei et al., 2017).

Wheat cultivation ranks fourth in terms of area coverage, behind teff, maize, and sorghum, and
third in terms of total production and productivity (CSA, 2012, 2016). From 2011 to 2012, the
average production and yield of wheat in quintals per household per hectare were 7.43 quintals
and 13.68 quintals, respectively, compared to 7.58 quintals and 24.96 quintals for maize (Minot
& Sawye, 2012). From 1994 to 2016, the yield of all teff, maize, and wheat exhibits an

7
increasing tendency, as seen in the graph. Even if their yield trend is increasing over time, the
rate at which they are increasing differs.

In terms of estimated yield, the CSA (2018) report stated that over the last 5 years (2012/2013–
2017/2018) post-harvest estimates for maize, teff, and wheat within the category of cereals
have increased from 7.32 to 28.93 quintals per hectare for maize; from 5.05 to 26.76 quintals
per hectare for teff; and from 2.28 to 29.67 quintals per hectare for wheat.

This reveals that wheat has the highest rising rate of 22.39 quintals, followed by teff (21.61
quintals), and maize (21.61 quintals) (21.71 quintals).Wheat output is expanding as a result of
a number of government programs and efforts aimed at boosting agricultural growth and food
security in the country (Gebreselassie et al., 2017). According to an FAOSTAT report, wheat
production and total area coverage grew on average from 2000 to 2017.

According to Gebreselassie et al. (2017), the main cause for this considerable annual variance
is due to variations in rainfall, which means that when the rainfall is good, the output is good,
and when the rainfall is insufficient, the production is poor. Ethiopia has been dealing with an
increasing supply shortage despite robust production and productivity trends (Bergh et al.,
2012).Even if it is expanding domestically, Ethiopian wheat production is still minor in
comparison to global norms (Hei et al., 2017). The government should pay attention to
increasing global wheat demand by collaborating with large-scale commercial investors.

2.1.1. Potential Bread Wheat-Producing Areas in Ethiopia

Wheat is grown throughout Ethiopia's northern, central, and south-eastern highlands (CSA,
2017; Demeke & Marcantonio, 2013). This implies it may be grown in practically all parts of
the country, including pastoral and agro-pastoral areas like as Afar, Gambela, and Somalia.
However, Ethiopia's Oromia and Amhara areas produce the majority of the country's wheat (85
percent) (Bergh et al., 2012). Wheat production comes from Oromia (57 percent), Amhara (28
percent), SNNP (8.7%), and Tigray (6.2 percent) in terms of regional contribution. Ethiopia is
home to 4.7 million wheat-growing farmers. More than three-quarters of them (78%) live in
the Oromia and Amhara areas. The Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples' of Ethiopia
(SNNP) account for 13% of wheat production, whereas the Tigray region contributes for only
8%. Wheat growers in other parts of the country account for less than 1% of the total (Minot
et al., 2015).

8
The average wheat area per farm is also the biggest in the country, with farmers planting an
average of 0.43 hectares per farm in the Oromia regional state. This is due to the presence of
huge farms in the Bale and Arsi districts, which are the country's main wheat-growing zones.
As a result, Ethiopia's two wheat-producing zones are known as the Belt of Wheat Production
Areas (Bergh et al., 2012; Minot et al., 2015). SNNP, on the other hand, has the smallest wheat-
growing area, with an average of 0.19 hectares per farm. In Amhara, Tigray, and adjacent
locations, the average wheat acreage per farm is between 0.28 and 0.39 hectares. In terms of
total output and area coverage, we can see that wheat is mostly produced in Ethiopia's Oromia,
Amhara, and SNNP areas. However, as shown in Table 1, the Oromia region continues to be
the most productive, with the SNNP and Amhara regions coming in second and third,
respectively. According to the CSA (2018, 2017) report, the Amhara area has the highest
increasing trend of wheat yield (1.53 quintals per hectare) in the 2017/2018 production season
as compared to the 2016/2017.

2.2. Bread Wheat Production Opportunities

Based on available literature, the potentials and/or the opportunities of wheat production could
be dimensionalized into diverse agro-ecological/climatic and related factors, gaps between
consumer demands and supplies and related factors, genetic resources and researches related
factors, favorable governmental policies and regulations and related factors, and other factors
which constitute blend several other factors not classified under the former four dimensions
(Mengistu, Kidane, Fadda and Pè, 2016).

2.2.1. Diverse Agro-Ecological, Climatic and Related Factors

There are diverse traditional agroecosystems in Ethiopia which is characterized by highly
varied agro-climates and diverse growing conditions. These agroecosystems constitute major
in situ repositories of crop genetic diversity. This in turn facilitates the maintenance of species
and genetic diversity in the field. Diverse landraces can be utilized in developing new crop
varieties and addressing acute yield constraints. Again, such diversity provides security for the
farmer against diseases, pests, drought, and other stresses. Genetic diversity also allows farmers
to exploit the full range of the country's highly varied microenvironments differing in
characteristics such as soil, water, temperature, altitude, slope, and fertility (Brush, 2000). The
presence of diverse genetic resources of wheat could be substantiated by the findings that
revealed that the Ethiopian landraces were 0.19 and 0.24, 1.04, and 0.81, respectively
indicating high genetic differentiation and limited gene flow; and diversity indices verify that
the landrace panel was more diverse with (I = 0.7, He = 0.46, uHe = 0.46) than the advanced
9
lines (I = 0.6, He = 0.42, uHe = 0.42) (Negisho, Shibru, Pillen, Ordon and Wehner, 2021).
Again, in the northern Ethiopia, durum wheat genotypes consist of 265 farmers’ varieties (FVs)
as well as 24 improved varieties (IMVs) have been recently evaluated in northern Ethiopia
(Mengistu, Kidane, Fadda, and Pè, 2016). Durum wheat is among the most important Triticum
species with higher morphological variability among landraces that is confirmed to found in
Ethiopia (Meseret Asmamaw, 2016).

The major opportunities of maize, teff and wheat production in Ambos and Toke Kuttaye
Districts of West Showa Zone in Ethiopia were the availability of irrigable land, availability of
fertile land, location of the districts for agricultural marketing and good weather condition
(Bultossa Terefe, 2018). Similarly, favorable climate conditions are among the major available
opportunities which have been taken to stimulate production and productivity of Ethiopian
wheat.

2.2.2. Gaps between Consumer Demands and Supplies, and Related Factors
In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), wheat is grown in sub-humid or humid agro-ecological zones of
the highland temperate mixed farming system (according to FAO classification). Ethiopia
contains the majority of this cropping system in the Africa, although there are smaller areas in
the highlands of Eritrea, Lesotho, South Africa, Angola, Cameroon and Nigeria. This cropping
system accounts for only four percent of cultivated area in SSA, but supports seven percent of
the regions’ population (Waddington, et al., 2009).

Ethiopia remains a net importer of wheat although the country has various potentials and
opportunities to increase its wheat production. The country is experiencing a huge gap between
production (4.5 million tons in 2016) and consumption levels (5.4 million tons in 2016) which
results in import dependence. For instance, in 2016 the Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise
imported 750 thousand tons from Russia and Argentina and 300 thousand tons through food
aid, resulting in 1.05 million tons of imported wheat. As a result of the rapid urbanization and
of the increasing population, consumption of wheat products like flour, bread, biscuits and
pasta (e.g. macaroni, spaghetti, etc.) is rising. The demand for quality wheat, especially durum
wheat, is high and not met by the local production (Brasesco, Asgedom, Sommacal, and Casari,
2019). Again, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) (2021) projected wheat
production in Ethiopia for 2021/22 at 5.18 million tons, up by 1.6 percent over the 2020/21
production estimate based on data of Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN).
However, FAS/Addis Ababa forecasts wheat consumption in MY 2021/22 to reach to 6.7

10
million MT, a nearly one percent increase over 2020/21. In Ethiopia demand for wheat is
growing, reflecting population growth, and shifting dietary patterns linked to urbanization. The
demand curve in years past was nearly flat because of constrained supply as a result of a
shortage of foreign currency to import wheat. Therefore, this wide gap between production and
demand is one of the opportunities to be exploited by bread wheat farmers to increase its
production and productivity.

Based on the report of FAOSTAT, deficit of local wheat production to satisfy demands as
indicated by supply was 861.951 tons in 2005, 526.206 tons in 2006, and 600.237 tons in 2007.
This implies that there is huge gap between production and demand for bread wheat in Ethiopia.
Thus, bread wheat farmers can exploit this as one of the opportunities to maximize and increase
their annual bread wheat production. Similarly, increased domestic demand for industrial wheat
products due to urbanization and lifestyle change and increased wheat consumption
(AACCSAA, 2017) is among the major available opportunities which have been taken to
stimulate production and productivity of Ethiopian wheat.

2.2.3. Genetic Resources and Researches Related Factors

Field evaluation of agro-morphological characters and laboratory analysis of grain proteins and
molecular markers (ISSR) of tetraploid wheat (Triticum durum Desf.) germplasm from
Ethiopia revealed the presence of broad genetic variation among accessions grown in different
regions of Ethiopia that were clustered into 15 clusters, with nine accessions remaining solitary
(Faris Hailu, 2011).

Diverse landraces of wheat present in Ethiopia can be utilized in developing new crop varieties
and addressing acute yield constraints. Again, such diversity provides security for the farmer
against diseases, pests, drought, and other stresses. Genetic diversity also allows farmers to
exploit the full range of the country's highly varied microenvironments differing in
characteristics such as soil, water, temperature, altitude, slope, and fertility (Brush, 2000). The
presence of diverse genetic resources of wheat could be substantiated by the findings that
revealed that the Ethiopian landraces were 0.19 and 0.24, 1.04, and 0.81, respectively
indicating high genetic differentiation and limited gene flow; and diversity indices verify that
the landrace panel was more diverse with (I = 0.7, He = 0.46, uHe = 0.46) than the advanced
lines (I = 0.6, He = 0.42, uHe = 0.42) (Negisho, Shibru, Pillen, Ordon and Wehner, 2021).
Again, in the northern Ethiopia, durum wheat genotypes consist of 265 farmers’ varieties (FVs)
as well as 24 improved varieties (IMVs) have been recently evaluated in northern Ethiopia

11
(Mengistu, Kidane, Fadda, and Pè, 2016). Durum wheat is among the most important Triticum
species with higher morphological variability among landraces that is confirmed to found in
Ethiopia (Meseret Asmamaw, 2016).

Ethiopia is also considered to be the center of genetic diversity of durum wheat (Triticum
turgidum L var durum), which is grown on heavy black clay soils (Vertisols) of the central and
northern highlands of Ethiopia between 1800-2800 masl. At present, wheat is produced solely
under rainfed conditions. Durum wheat, differentiated by its big size and weight, is mainly
suitable for pasta, macaroni, pastini and other manufacturing products.

Agricultural research and technology generation has been an important aspect of government
efforts for the development of Ethiopian agriculture for the last several decades. It is now over
five decades since agricultural research activities were institutionalized. Currently, there are
many agricultural research institutions at various levels that engage in agricultural research and
technology generation and dissemination activities. But the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural
Research (EIAR) remains the primary agricultural research agency. The EIAR is a federal
institution mandated to design research policy and strategies, assist in capacity building,
coordinates national research activities and undertakes researches with its own research centers
and in collaboration with other regional research institutes. The institutional structure of
Ethiopia’s agricultural R&D system has undergone numerous rounds of restructuring over
recent periods.

While the Ethiopian research system has supported wheat producers across the country, it is
difficult to say that the wheat value-chain at the pre-production stage in general and the research
and extension systems in particular provide demand-driven support to wheat producers.
National capacity in terms of facilitating identification, sourcing, import, and multiplication
and dissemination of new and proven agricultural technologies should be strengthened. Limited
participation and integration of the private sector in wheat value added activities undermined
the whole value chain system. The sustainability and efficiency of the wheat value chain at the
upstream stage needs strong but well regulated participation of the private sector. Previous
studies, for instance Byerlee et al. (2007) and Yu et al. (2011), argued that increased private
sector participation would strengthen the Ethiopian seed system.

2.2.4. Favorable Governmental Policies, Regulations and Related Factors

Introduction of economic reform in the form of structural adjustment programs, aiming at
sustaining a liberalized market-oriented economy, has given opportunities for smallholder

12
farmers to diversify their products and to target high-value markets such as export and
processing-oriented market channels in sub-Saharan countries (Negassa et al., 2013). Over the
past 20 years, despite the existence of strong markets for potential substitute grains, both wheat
production and consumption have increased in Ethiopia. The government has played an active
role in wheat market by starting large investments in extension programs and adopting
protectionist policies to ensure government control of all commercial grain imports (Bergh et
al., 2012). Similarly, several policy initiatives (Taffesse et al., 2013) are among the major
available opportunities which have been taken to stimulate production and productivity of
Ethiopian wheat.

2.2.5. Other Factors

The major opportunities of maize, teff and wheat production in Ambos and Toke Kuttaye
Districts of West Showa Zone in Ethiopia were the availability of irrigable land, availability of
motivated and hardworking farmers, and location of the districts for agricultural marketing
(Bultossa Terefe, 2018). The presence of various opportunities to install the agro-processing
capacity of the wheat sector for domestically produced wheat is another opportunity for wheat
farmers to increase and improve bread wheat production and productivity. Currently,
urbanization is the golden opportunity for the development of marketing of agricultural cereal
crops like wheat (FAO, 2017).

The interest of farmers to use improved varieties; strong interest of national and international
research organizations for crop improvement; the importance of the crop in food self-
sufficiency as a strategic crop at regional and national levels; the diverse use value of the crop;
and availability of human resource and knowledge for the improvement and development of
the crop were also the other available wheat production opportunities. On the other hand, to
some extent, the built-up of asphalt road and provision of infrastructure facilities in and around
the towns were the important opportunities which can support the marketing of wheat in
Ethiopia (Mahamud, 2016).

Wheat farmer’s readiness to accept new technologies, the presence of perennial rivers for
irrigation, government’s suitable agricultural policies designed to support farmers at the
grassroots level and presence of NGOs working on development projects are important
production and marketing opportunities of wheat at Halaba special districts of Ethiopia. The
numbers of population and town development also have their own contribution to the
development of the wheat sector. According to Tadesse et al. (2018), in the previous time,

13
traditionally wheat was not considered as the leading staple food crop in sub-Saharan African
countries including Ethiopia, but nowadays, rapid population growth in combination with
expansion of towns and changes in easy and fast food preference of the people becomes the
opportunity for wheat production as well as its marketing. Similarly, the report by FAO (2017)
reveals that increasing urban demand for more food and higher value of processed food
provides a good opportunity for producers and agribusiness including suppliers of production
inputs.

From the above-reviewed empirical studies, it is possible to understand that constraints and
opportunities are varying from place to place either due to their location suitability or due to
different socio-economic and institutional activities performed to the society. Thus, giving
emphasis on increasing the development of the wheat sector to each region accordingly is very
important.

2.3. Bread Wheat Production Constraints

The constraints of wheat production are grouped into five major dimensions; namely
environmental constraints (waterlogging, soil salinity, irrigation water supplies, drainage
problems and climatic factors), agronomic constraints (land leveling, seed and variety, sowing,
fertilizer, chemicals, weeds, irrigation water and crop rotation), economic constraints (output
prices, fertilizer prices, irrigation water charges, diseases, machinery expenses, land ownership
and size, and credit), constraints related to policy packages and regulations, and research and
extension services (Mudasser, Hussain, and Aslam, 2001).

By farming system pair, the Generation Challenge Program at CIMMYT asked expert panelists
to identify the six most important constraints from a long list in each of four categories; viz.,
socio-economic, biotic, abiotic and management as well as to estimate the yield losses for each
constraint category (Schneider and Anderson, 2010).

From the former two paragraphs, it is evident that the constraints of wheat production and
productivity are dimensionalized varyingly by different scholars and researchers as detailed
above. In this thesis, dimensionalization scheme of Mudasser, Hussain, and Aslam (2001) is
adapted in presenting the constraints of bread wheat production and productivity.

2.3.1. Environmental Constraints

There are a number of environmental constraints and challenges that deter the production and
productivity of wheat across the globe and also in Ethiopia. For instance, according to empirical

14
findings of several independent researchers and scholars, environmental constraints constitute
waterlogging, soil salinity, irrigation water supplies, drainage problems and climatic factors
(Mudasser, Hussain, and Aslam, 2001; Degye Goshu, Tigabu Degu and Fatunbi Oluwole,
2019; Mudasser, Hussain, and Aslam, 2001; etc). Water logging and salinity problems were
the two land evils which occur together. Great reduction in fertilizer and input use efficiency
on the salt-affected soils resulting into decline in yield and production is one justification
towards that ends (Mudasser, Hussain, and Aslam, 2001). Again, wheat production constraints
in Ethiopia included rain failure and soil erosion (Chernet Worku and Mamaru Abebe, 2020).
Nitrogen deficiency of the soil and depletion of soil fertility were found to deter bread wheat
production and productivity (Waddington, et al., 2009).

2.3.2. Agronomic Constraints

There are a number of agronomic constraints and challenges that deter the production and
productivity of wheat across the globe and also in Ethiopia. For instance, several independent
researchers and scholars reported that there are agronomic constraints that constitute land
leveling, seed and variety, sowing, fertilizer, chemicals, weeds, irrigation water and crop
rotation factors (Mudasser, Hussain, and Aslam, 2001; Degye Goshu, Tigabu Degu and Fatunbi
Oluwole, 2019; Mudasser, Hussain, and Aslam, 2001; etc). Again, wheat production
constraints in Ethiopia included rain failure and soil erosion (Chernet Worku, and Mamaru
Abebe, 2020). The major constraints of maize, teff and wheat production in Ambos and Toke
Kuttaye Districts were found crop worm and disease, price problem, lack of inputs (chemicals,
fertilizers, seed, etc.,), lack of appropriate threshing facilities and storage facilities, high post-
harvest losses, lack of farming oxen, lack of rural credits, lack of education and lack of rural
feeder roads (Bultossa Terefe, 2018).

Yifru Teklu and Hammer (2006) found that there is 100% genetic erosion of both T. durum
and T. dicoccon in Tulo district; 85.7, 100 and 77.8%, genetic erosion for T. durum, T. turgidum
and T. dicoccon in Chiro district correspondingly; and 88.9% genetic erosion for T. durum and
100% genetic erosion for both in T. turgidum and T. dicoccon in Harar Zuriya. These findings
imply that eventual decline and genetic erosion of diverse landrace wheat varieties and cultivars
are one of the constraints that negatively influence efforts of improving bread wheat production
and productivity.

Unavailability of quality seed, shortage supply of nitrogen fertilizers, nitrogen deficiency of

the soil, weeds and depletion of soil fertility found to deter bread wheat production and

15
productivity (Waddington, et al., 2009). Management constraints accounted for another 20%
of the total yield gap according to the study (Waddington, et al., 2009).

2.3.3. Economic Constraints

There are a number of economic constraints and challenges that deter the production and
productivity of wheat across the globe and also in Ethiopia. For example, according to
empirical findings of several independent researchers and scholars, economic constraints
constitute output prices, fertilizer prices, irrigation water charges, machinery expenses, land
ownership and size, diseases, and credit accessibility related factors (Mudasser, Hussain, and
Aslam, 2001; Degye Goshu, Tigabu Degu and Fatunbi Oluwole, 2019; Mudasser, Hussain, and
Aslam, 2001; etc). Again, wheat production constraints in Ethiopia included higher fertilizer
price labor shortage, lack of credit access, lack of draft power and delayed fertilizer delivery
(Chernet Worku, and Mamaru Abebe, 2020). Crop worm and disease, price problem, lack of
inputs (chemicals, Fertilizers, Seed, etc.,), lack of appropriate threshing facilities and storage
facilities, high post-harvest losses, lack of farming oxen, lack of rural credits in addition to lack
of education and lack of rural feeder roads reported as major economic constraints of maize,
teff and wheat production in Ambos and Toke Kuttaye Districts in Ethiopia (Bultossa Terefe,
2018). Furthermore, subsistence farming of wheat produced by small-scale farmers through
rain feed production system with less irrigated production and the existing wheat production
and marketing system were the constraints which have their own influence on decreasing yield
of wheat in Ethiopia (Adugnaw Anteneh and Dagninet Asrat, 2020).

Findings of Ahmed, Sulaiman and Mohd (2011) revealed that irrigation water cost, the average
of tenants’ age, family labor, distance from home to field, hired labor, distance of farm to source
of irrigation, number of irrigation, term of irrigation and lack of awareness among wheat
grower especially about wheat technical package were the most factors affecting wheat
productivity and production at Elzeidab irrigated scheme of River Nile State (RNS) which is
regarded as the oldest and biggest scheme belonging to the Ministry of Agriculture of RNS.
Also, the main wheat production constraints were wheat rust diseases, the high costs of
fertilizers, shortage of improved seeds and high seed prices (Netsanet Hei, Hussein Ali
Shimelis and Mark Laing. 2017).

Expensiveness of nitrogen fertilizers, lack of timely access to right machinery among farmers
and lack of financial and credit access were reported to deter bread wheat production and
productivity (Waddington, et al., 2009). According to the panelists, limited access to inputs

16
constraints accounted for more of the yield gaps than that of the farm management practices
(Waddington, et al., 2009).

2.3.4. Constraints Related to Policy Packages and Regulations

Policy packages and regulations are essential for promoting the wheat production to its
potential level and also distribution of certified and improved seed, quality control, variety
protection, discouraging the sowing of banned varieties, etc. should be backed by proper policy
package and regulations. Policies targeting the crop specific education and training to farmers
would be able to overcome the existing constraints related to policy packages and regulations
and to switch to wheat production opportunities instead of being constraints (Mudasser,
Hussain, and Aslam, 2001).

Several constraints and challenges related to policy packages and regulations found to deter the
production and productivity of wheat across the globe and also in Ethiopia. According to
empirical findings of several independent researchers and scholars, policy packages and
regulations hampered wheat production and productivity worldwide (Mudasser, Hussain, and
Aslam, 2001; Degye Goshu, Tigabu Degu and Fatunbi Oluwole, 2019; Mudasser, Hussain, and
Aslam, 2001; etc).

Again, wheat production constraints in Ethiopia included rain failure and soil erosion (Chernet
Worku, and Mamaru Abebe, 2020). The major constraints of maize, teff and wheat production
in Ambos and Toke Kuttaye Districts were found crop worm and disease, price problem, lack
of inputs (chemicals, fertilizers, seed, etc.,), lack of appropriate threshing facilities and storage
facilities, high post-harvest losses, lack of farming oxen, lack of rural credits, lack of education
and lack of rural feeder roads (Bultossa Terefe, 2018).

Mehmood and Walters (1990) argued that both slow and cumbersome procedures for
certification and restrictions on the import of seed for breeding and testing restricted the scope
of spread of certified seed availability and spread in the agricultural sector. They suggested a
single authority for seed variety testing and registration, certification, quality control, variety
protection, and promotion. They also stressed on the need to declare seed industry as high
priority industry with program of incentives for promoting it. Moreover, investment
deregulation, availability of credit, and import regulations must be addressed in this regard.

17
Akhtar et al. (1986) argued that keeping in view the widespread cultivation of old as well as
banned varieties of wheat and their higher susceptibility towards rust and smut, statutory
regulations would help a lot for controlling and improving the situation for better tomorrow.
Khushk et al. (1989) opined that important changes in developing and extending wheat
varieties were the need of the time. In order to improve the situation, specific wheat varieties
for specific environment should be evolved. In addition, special statutory regulations were
needed in order to bring down the acreage under the banned varieties of wheat accompanied
with high susceptibility risk of rust. Nevertheless, this policy would work if backed by
extensive and effective seed distribution system.

2.3.5. Research, Extension Services and Other Constraints

Several constraints and challenges related to research to improve wheat production and the
dissemination of research findings to the wheat farmers through agricultural extension services
found to deter the production and productivity of wheat across the globe and also in Ethiopia.
For example, according to empirical findings of several independent researchers and scholars,
research and extension services that hardly meet the demands of the farmers constrained wheat
production and productivity worldwide (Mudasser, Hussain, and Aslam, 2001; Degye Goshu,
Tigabu Degu and Fatunbi Oluwole, 2019; Mudasser, Hussain, and Aslam, 2001; etc).

Again, wheat production constraints in Ethiopia included rain failure and soil erosion (Chernet
Worku, and Mamaru Abebe, 2020). The major constraints of maize, teff and wheat production
in Ambos and Toke Kuttaye Districts were found Crop worm and disease, Price problem, lack
of inputs (chemicals, Fertilizers, Seed, etc.,), lack of appropriate threshing facilities and storage
facilities, high post-harvest losses, lack of farming oxen, lack of rural credits, lack of education
and lack of rural feeder roads (Bultossa Terefe, 2018).

The Generation Challenge Program at CIMMYT asked expert panelists to identify the most
important constraints from a long list in four categories; viz., socio-economic, biotic, abiotic
and management constraints the Generation Challenge Program at CIMMYT asked expert
panelists to identify the six most important constraints from a long list in each of four
categories; viz., socio-economic, biotic, abiotic and management as well as asked to estimate
the yield losses for each constraint category and asked to estimate the yield losses for each
constraint category as well.

18
Insufficient access to agricultural information and inadequate provision of trainings to farmers
on wheat production and utilization of knowledge were found to deter bread wheat production
and productivity (Waddington, et al., 2009). Inadequate access to agricultural information and
farmer production and utilization of knowledge and training are estimated to result in a
combined 198 kilograms per hectare loss (Waddington, et al., 2009).

Ahmad and Chaudhry (1996) found that poor infrastructure and separation of agricultural
education from research and extension kept farmers of Pakistan’ Punjab from the road to
success as compared with their counterparts in Indian Punjab. Moreover, inadequate funding
for research proved a big hurdle in the development of Pakistan agriculture with not offering
breakthroughs in different fields of agriculture. It was also found that Indian farmers were
practicing management and cultural practices in a much better and efficient way than Pakistani
farmers. It was suggested that improvements in agricultural extension services for adoption,
use, and management of key farm inputs might lead Pakistani farmers also towards path to
prosperity.

Ahmad et al. (1988) by employing Probit Analysis estimated that the farmers’ contact with
extension services was most significant variable regarding weeds control. Radio contact also
showed significant positive relationship with the dependent variable establishing its usefulness
in disseminating knowledge about weeds and their control for increasing wheat production. A
significant positive dummy for social status showed that influential farmers are the key person
in utilizing the technological advances with in village community. This also throws light on
presence of better links between influential farmers and extension services.

Altaf (1994) discussed that Pakistan’s current extension service was designed for subsistence
agriculture. At that time private sector was not involved in providing agrochemicals and other
inputs to the farmers. However, things were changed and role of extension services had become
primarily as a knowledge supplier. So, it was felt to retrain the extension personnel in order to
cope with the needs of the time. This would help make them more effective in conveying
farmers the much-required knowledge and will eventually improve the adoption process in case
of modern technology of far more improved agricultural science. He also stressed that in order
to make the extension services as an efficient and vital tool, new type of extension services and
personnel might be needed.

19
2.4. Conceptual Frame Work of the Study
A conceptual framework is used in research to outline possible courses of action or to present
a preferred approach to an idea or thought. This conceptual framework was developed based
on the literature reviewed on the challenges/constraints and potentials/opportunities of bread
wheat production and productivity and supported the conceptualization of objectives and
research questions of this study. The conceptual framework emphasized that the greater the
adverse impacts of the constraints, the lower the production and productivity of bread wheat,
and in contrary the higher the potentials effects, the larger the production and productivity of
bread wheat (Figure 2.1). Except similarity with the conceptual framework of Adugnaw
Anteneh and Dagninet Asrat (2020, the potentials and constraints listed in their framework and
mine were remarkably different and were not dimensionalized as these.

Figure 2.1: Conceptual Framework of the study

Source: Own developed based on reviewed literature

20
 3. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY

3.1. Study Settings and Its Descriptions

The study was done in the Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone, Southeastern Ethiopia.
Sinana and Gasera districts have favorable climatic conditions such as adequate rainfall,
temperature, soil types, topography and altitudes that suit bread wheat production as well as
others cereals such as barley, sorghum, maize, teff, etc.

Sinana district lies between 6° 55′ 00ʺ to 7° 18′ 00 North and 9° 53′ 00ʺ to 40° 26′ 00ʺ East.
The altitude of the district ranges from 1650 to 2950 m.a.s.l. The district has 20 rural Kebeles.
The total area of the district is about 1168 km2. About 73.54% is plain land, 3.7% is hills, 9.6%
is mountains, 12.3% is rugged and 0.86% is gorge. The annual average temperature is 16.5 °C,
whereas the minimum and maximum temperature is 9 °C and 23 °C, respectively. Rainfall
pattern of the District is characterized by bi-modal rain fall distribution. The annual average
rainfall is 1105 mm, whereas the minimum and maximum rainfall is 1060 and 1150 mm,
respectively (Di Falco, Chavas, and Smale, 2007). Farmers in the district practice mixed
farming that incorporates both crop and livestock. The major crops produced in the district are
cereals, pulses and oil crops (Devereux, 2000).

According to the works of Abayneh Esayas and Ashenafi Ali (2006) along with the Technical
Assistance of Gebeyehu Belay and Tibebu Chekol, the major soil types identified in the center
are Phaeozems, Cambisols with minor occurrence of Vertisols. The soils are deep, fine textured
and have aggregated soil structure with good porosity. The soils have slightly acidic to strongly
acidic reaction and are not saline and sodic. The organic matter and total nitrogen content
decrease with depth. The cation exchange capacity of the soils varies from 23 to 58 cmolc kg-
1 soil and the base saturation percentage is between 51 and 99%. The available K content of
the soils relative to Ca and Mg is high and this may affect Ca and Mg availability. The available
phosphorous, zinc and copper content of the soils is low. Thus future soil fertility works should
focus on the status and availability of macro- and micronutrients in the soils.

Gasera district lies at 700 01'04” N latitude and 04023'31” E longitude. The altitude of the
district ranges from 1100m to 2500 m.a.s.l. Average daily temperature of the district varies
from as low as 150C to 250C and the rainfall ranges from 735mm to 912.5mm (The Lutheran
World Federation, 2016). The elevations of most locations of the Gasera district are above
2,000 m.a.s.l. Most parts of the district are plain with n early flat topography. Areas ranging

21
from gentle to steep slopes are commonly observed in the northern part bordering the gorge of
Wabe. Soils of the area have high clay contents varying from light grayish to dark black in
color. Soils varying in depth from shallow Regosols to deep Vertisols are observed. The
dominant soil types are the dark black clay soils (Vertisols), light brown colored soils- known
by local vernaculars as 'abole', 'gali', and 'daro\ and the red soils- called 'dimile'.
According to the reports of Bekele Hundie Kotu, Paulos Asrat and Aseffa Seyoum (2004), the
'daro1 soils are the most productive with a little or almost no fertilizer requirement followed
by dark black clay Vertisol, and the least productive soils are the 'dimile1 soils to which
application of chemical fertilizers is necessary. The farmers believe that the dark black clay
soils have high inherent chemical fertility; the major problem being the extremely poor physical
conditions they exhibit which is often manifested by their poor internal drainage characteristics.
The dark black clay soil (Vertisols), being the most dominant soils in the study area, has got a
specific morphology and their physical and chemical characteristics vary within a narrow
range. These soils are believed to have more than 50% clay. They become very sticky when
there is excess rainfall and hard when the rainfall tends to cease. Water logging is a severe
problem in these soils.

Therefore, Sinana district has comparatively better potentials for bread wheat production than
Gasera district even though both districts have the prerequisite favorable altitudinal ranges,
topography, climatic conditions and agro-climatic zones.

The total population of Sinana and Gasera Districts is 192, 017 [M= 99, 673; F= 92, 344] in
2021/22 fiscal year. However, the estimated population of the selected rural Kebeles of Sinana
and Gasera districts in 2021/22 fiscal year based on the NPHC results for Oromia Regional
State (CSA, 2007) is 42, 002 [M= 24, 268; F= 21, 098] and the corresponding numbers of HHs
are 9625.

The study was conducted from 11th March to 9th May, 2022.

22
Figure 3.1: Location Map of Sinana and Gasera districts in Ethiopia
Source: Bale Zone Administration Office, 2021

3.2. Study Approach and Design

A community-based explanatory and quantitative study approaches were employed in this
study. A cross-sectional descriptive survey design (Salkind, 2010:313-314; Aparasu and
Bentley, 2020:23-26) was employed in this study to investigate the constraints and potentials
bread wheat production in Sinana and Gasera Districts of Bale Zone. Quantitative methods
may be most simply and parsimoniously defined as the techniques associated with the
gathering, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of numerical information. It consists of the
rigorous testing of hypotheses by means of data that take the form of quantitative
measurements” (Atkinson & Hammersley, 1994, p. 251). Research questions guide
investigations and are concerned with unknown aspects of a phenomenon of interest. Answers
to quantitative research questions are presented in numerical form. A research hypothesis is a
specialized quantitative research question in which investigators make predictions based on
theory, previous research, or some other rationale about the relationships among social
phenomena before conducting a research study. Quantitative (statistical) data analysis is the
analysis of numerical data using techniques that include (1) simply describing the phenomenon
of interest or (2) looking for significant differences between groups or among variables. The

23
quantitative research method emphasizes formulation of hypotheses and testing them using
inferential statistical methods of data analysis unlike descriptive method that use only
descriptive statistical methods of data analysis.
As Punch (1998) suggests in the epigraph, descriptive studies are conducted for the purpose of
understanding a phenomenon or setting that is complicated; it is too complex to take in with
just a superficial observation of it. When it is important to understand a phenomenon or setting
and we do not yet understand that phenomenon or setting, then a descriptive study should be
undertaken. You will have a number of specific reasons for conducting a descriptive study, and
often you will be using several of them in your rationale for a single study. The first, and most
obvious, is that you need to explore a new phenomenon or construct. For example, not so long
ago, there was no such thing as the World Wide Web. When the Web became a reality, it was
not at all clear how people might go about searching for Web materials and navigating among
Web sites. Many exploratory, descriptive studies have been undertaken to understand these
phenomena, and more are needed as the capabilities provided by the Web evolve. A second
reason for conducting a descriptive study is that you may wish to understand a phenomenon in
more depth. It may be that a particular behavior has been found among a particular group, and
you want to find out if another group of interest also displays the same behavior and, if not,
how that group behaves differently. A third reason for conducting a descriptive study is to
understand a particular phenomenon for the particular purpose of using that understanding to
improve a system’s or program’s design. For example, you may want to understand your
library’s users’ reactions to your summer reading program so that you can make improvements
in that program. Or you may want to understand how people formulate their Web search
strategies so that you can better support their searching of your new Web-based online library
catalog. A fourth reason for conducting a descriptive study is that the study will be the first
step in the development of a new theory. Because this purpose takes on some additional
dimensions not present in other types of descriptive studies, a separate chapter is devoted to
developing research questions related to theory development and validation. In descriptive
research, the occurrence of an outcome variable is typically expressed by group measurements
such as averages, proportions, incidence, or prevalence rates. Descriptive methods don’t use
inferential statistical data analysis unlike quantitative methods. In relation to this, Keith Punch
(1998) puts descriptive study as follows:
To describe is to draw a picture of what happened, or of how things are proceeding,
or of what a situation or a person or an event is like. Description is concerned with
making complicated things understandable (Keith Punch, 1998).
24
Thus, the descriptive method is chosen with strong assumption that it is convenient to collect
several kinds of data regarding the constraints and potentials of bread wheat production in
Sinana and Gasera Districts of Bale Zone. However, the quantitative method was chosen to test
the relationships between dependent variable (Bread wheat production volumes) and the
independent variables (the potentials and constraints of bread wheat production) in the two
districts of Bale Zone.

3.3. Populations and Data Sources

3.3.1. Sources of Data
There were two types of data sources employed in the study; namely primary data sources that
were collected from sampled and selected heads of the households (HHs) which were utilized
in the study. It was collected from the participants of the study using HH survey questionnaires.
In addition to primary data type, secondary data type that was collected through reviewing of
articles, documents and archival materials were utilized in order to analyze bread wheat
production trends as well as amounts that were compared and contrasted with its production
volume in the current fiscal year.

3.3.2. Source Populations

All heads of the HHs of the twelve Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera Districts (Table 3.1 on page
25) that were living in those Kebeles in 2021/22 fiscal year constituted the source population
for the study.

3.3.3. Study Populations

All heads of the HHs of the twelve Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera Districts that were living in
the Kebeles and working in the stated offices and that had no hearing, visual and auditory
impairments and who were healthier during the data collection period (from 11th March to 9th
May, 2022) constituted the study population for the study.

3.4. Sample Size and Sampling Techniques

3.4.1. Sample Size Determination
The sample size that was required for the study in terms of the heads of the households (HHs),
was determined using sample size determination formula for single finite population (Daniel
and Cross, 2013:192); i.e.,

25
 2
N *Z  * p*q
1
n  2
, Where,
d 2 *( N  1)  Z 
2
* p*q
1
2

n  Sample size of HHs to be selected and involved in the study,

N  Total number of HHs in the two districts,
Z  The value of normal population distribution at 95% level of confidence = 1.96,
p  The probability to randomly select a HH; and as it is simple random its value is 0.5,
q  The probability of not randomly selecting a HH; 1-p = 0.5, and
d  The sample error to be committed at 95% confidence level; which is 1-95% = 0.05.
So,
9625*1.962 *0.5*0.5
n 
0.052 *(9625  1)  1.962 *0.5*0.5
= 369.45 = 370 Households
Therefore, the sample size of the study was 370 households. However, to overcome the effects
of non-response rate on the representativeness of the HHs to be sampled five percent of the
computed sample size was added to it. Accordingly, the adjusted sample size of the study was,
na  n  0.05* n
Hence,
na  370  0.05*370
= 389 Households’ heads
Thus, the final adjusted sample of HHs was 389. This final adjusted sample size of HHs was
distributed proportionately to the two districts; then to the respective rural Kebeles of the
districts accordingly (Table 3.1).
Table 3.1: Numbers of populations and HHs and sample sizes by Woreda and Kebeles
Populations by sex Sample sizes by
SN Woredas and Kebeles HHs
Both Male Female Kebele & Woreda
1 Benebe Guranyada 2,073 1,074 999 402 16
2 Wetechemo 1,098 569 529 207 8
3 Nake Negewo 4,977 2,557 2,420 827 33
4 Demibeli Amogisa 5,809 3,017 2,792 955 39
5 Awsegecho Mesel Meda 3,867 1,988 1,879 726 29
6 Chefaro 3,286 1,694 1,592 627 26
I Gasera-Woreda 21,110 10,899 10,211 3744 151
1 Ilusinbitu 9,123 4,760 4,363 1,435 58
2 Hesenberera 965 842 123 979 40
3 Besaso 786 2,239 1,911 795 32
4 Weltei Berisa 3,016 1,538 1,478 582 23
5 Horaboka 999 841 158 1,004 41

26
 6 Shalo 6,003 3,149 2,854 1,086 44
II Sinana-Woreda 20,892 13,369 10,887 5,881 238
Overall total 42,002 24,268 21,098 9,625 389

3.4.2. Sampling Procedures and Techniques

A multistage sampling procedure was used to select rural Kebeles, participant HHs. In the first
stage of the sample selection process, six rural Kebeles that engage in wheat farming per district
were included in the study using judgmental and purposive sampling techniques. In the second
stage, households that were selected and covered in the study were selected from each Kebele
using systematic random sampling technique. Therefore, multistage sampling technique that
involves judgmental, purposive, convenience and systematic random sampling techniques
were applied in the study to assess the constraints and potentials of bread wheat production in
Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale zone.

3.5. Variables of the Study

3.5.1. Dependent Variables
The dependent variable of the study was the status of wheat production.

3.5.2. Independent Variables

Socio-demographic features of the HHs, sizes of land owned and volumes of production,
potentials of wheat production and constraints of wheat production and productivity were the
independent variables of the study.

3.6. Instrument of Data Collection

Semi-structured HH survey questionnaires were utilized in this study. In other words, the
relevant data required for the study was collected through semi-structured HH questionnaire
(Appendix II). The semi-structured HH survey questionnaires was employed as an instrument
to collect information from the HHs and mainly used to gather data for descriptive reasons. It
was administered to 389 households that were selected from the 12 rural Kebeles of Sinana and
Gasera districts. The instrument had four parts and 83 question items in overall. The first part
of the HH survey questionnaire was employed to gather data on the socio-demographic
characteristics of the HHs that were selected and involved in the study, and contained six
question items. The second part of the survey questionnaire was utilized to collect data on the
sizes (areas) of land owned and wheat production volumes per owned farm land used for wheat
production in 2013 E. C. (2020/21) fiscal year, and consisted of six question items. The third
part of the instrument was employed to gather data on the potentials of wheat production and

27
comprised of 23 question items. The last part of the instrument was applied to collect data on
the constraints of wheat production and contained 47 question items.

3.7. Methods of Data Processing and Analysis

Data analysis is a process of converting the raw data from the questionnaire to manageable size
and reporting summaries by using statistical techniques (descriptive and inferential statistics).
Gathered data was checked, edited and processed; and then entered to SPSS Version 21 for
Windows. Responses of negatively stated items of the HH survey questionnaires were reversed
when collected data is entered to SPSS Version 21 so that all items become affirmative or have
positive senses. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the findings. The inferential
statistical methods that were utilized were correlations and multiple regressions. In order to
assess the relationship between the constraints and potentials bread wheat production
(Independent variables) and wheat production performance or status (Dependent variable),
Pearson’s correlation test was conducted. To evaluate the levels of significance of the existing
associations among the variables of interests, multiple regressions were conducted to find out
which independent variables have more influence on wheat production performance or status.
In order to maintain uniformity in the scales of potentials and constraints, the negatively stated
items of the constraints were converted to affirmative statements and hence their prior scales
were reversed; i.e., “Strongly disagree” was converted to “Strongly agree”, “Disagree” was
converted to “Agree” and the vice versa.

Regression analysis is a numerical method to facilitate the relation of individual dependent

variable to a linear amalgamation of single or additional independent variables. Regression
indicates how much every independent variable that was the three modified dimensions of the
potential and the four dimensions of constraints effect on bread wheat production volumes; i.e.,
dependent variable. On behalf of every performance sign split data was used. “Multiple
regression analysis” counts compound “correlation coefficients R 2”; it is the percentage of
variation in dependent variable defined by the self-determining facets.

In presenting the results of the study using verbal descriptions, frequencies of “Strongly
disagree” and “Disagree” were pooled and described as “Disagree” while frequencies of
“Strongly agree” and “Agree” were pooled and described as “Agree” and that of “Neutral” as
it was for the sake of simplicity.

28
3.8. Ethical Considerations
Necessary ethical clearance and “TO WHOM IT MAY CONCERN” letters as well as other
necessary letters were obtained from Madda Walabu University, School of Graduate Studies,
Department of Biology, and from Sinana and Gasera Woredas of Bale zone, Southeastern
Ethiopia and from the rural Kebeles to be selected Offices. Items of the questionnaire and other
forms were stated (or worded) in such a way that they were free from religious, ethnic and
gender biases. Furthermore, study participants were informed about the objectives of the study,
and then asked whether they were willingfull or voluntary to participate in the study or not.
After their verbal consents were obtained, actual procedures of data collection were followed.

29
 4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Collected data has been analyzed within the framework of the basic research questions and the
specific objectives of the study. Analyzed data are presented in seven sub-sections as detailed
hereunder using thematic thread of organization. Twenty-two respondents refused to
participate in the study out of the total 389 households (HHs) selected for participation in the
study and resulted in 5.66 percent non-response rate. Thus, 367 sampled HHs were responded
which resulted in overall response rate of 94.34 percent.
4.1. Socio-demographic Characteristics of the Respondents
Majority (86.10%) of the respondent households (HHs) were headed by males while the rest
were headed by females. The mean age of the participants is 46.11 [±10.062SD] years. Most
(83.92%) of the respondents were in marital relationship while 31(8.43%) of them were
divorced (divorceé) ones respectively. 170(46.32%) of the respondent heads of the HHs had
family size ranging from five to seven while 91(24.80%) had family size ranging from eight to
ten correspondingly (Table 4.1).

Table 4.1: Socio-demographic features of the respondents HHs in Sinana and Gasera districts
of Bale Zone, Ethiopia, 2022(367)

SN ITEM Indicators Responses by bank types in

Freq. Percent
Male 316 86.10
1 Sex Female 51 13.90
Total 367 100.0
Less than 20 years 18 4.90
20-29 years 16 4.36
1) 30-39
30-39 yearsyears 29 7.90
2 Age of the selected HH heads 2) 30-39 years
40-49 years old 140 38.15
50-59 years old 162 44.14
60 years and above 2 0.54
Total 367 100.0
Married 308 83.92
Divorced/ceé 31 8.45
Marital status
3 Widow/widower 28 7.63
Total 367 100.0
4 73 19.89
5-7 170 46.32
4 Family size 8-10 91 24.80
11 and above 33 8.99
Total 367 100.0
Source: Author Survey Data (2022)

30
 5.18%
7.90%

21.80%

65.12%

Illiterate Read and write Primary Secondary

Figure 4.1: Educational status of the respondent heads of sampled households

Source: Author Survey Data (2022)

As clearly observable from Figure 4.1 depicted above, predominant (65.12%) of the respondent
heads of the selected HHs were illiterate and was followed by those that could read and write
(21.80%) and primary graduates (7.90%) consecutively (Fig. 4.1).

70.00% 60.76%

60.00%

50.00% 39.24%

40.00%

30.00%

20.00%

10.00%

0.00%
Sinana Gasera

Figure 4.2: The respondent heads of sampled households by districts

Source: Author Survey Data (2022)

31
Most (60.76%) of the respondents were from the rural Kebeles of Sinana district while the rest
were from Gasera district of Bale Zone (Fig. 4.2).

4.2. Descriptive Statistics of the Variables of Study

According to the mean values and standard deviation values shown in table 4.2 below based
on descriptive analyses of the dimensions of the instruments (data collection questionnaires),
the mean value of overall potentials in the rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale
Zone was 3.19(±0.28SD). The mean value of diverse agro-ecological, climatic and related
factors was 3.26(±0.40SD). The mean value of gaps between demands and supplies, genetic
resources and research was 3.11(±0.39SD). The mean value of favorable governmental policies
and regulations, and others was 3.19(±0.32SD).
From the analysis, the mean value of overall constraints was 2.24 (±0.48SD). The mean value
of environmental constraints was 2.54(±0.48SD). The mean value of agronomic constraints
was 2.34(±0.41SD) (Table 4.2).
Table 4.2: Descriptive statistics of the dependent and explanatory variables
Factors Mean SEM Median SD Varia. Min. Max.

Diverse Agro-Ecological, Climatic

3.2626 0.02100 3.2900 0.40226 0.162 2.00 4.43
and Related Factors
Gaps between Demands and
Supplies, Genetic resources and 3.1137 0.02017 3.1400 0.38646 0.149 1.86 4.00
Research
Favorable Governmental Policies
3.1900 0.01600 3.2200 0.31600 0.100 2.00 4.00
and Regulations, and Others
Average values of all potentials 3.1887 0.01453 3.2100 0.27826 0.077 2.22 4.00
Environmental Constraints 2.5429 0.02521 2.5000 0.48291 0.233 1.50 3.83
Agronomic Constraints 2.3374 0.02124 2.2500 0.40685 0.166 1.38 3.50
Economic Constraints 2.4796 0.01935 2.4300 0.37064 0.137 1.43 3.86
Research, Extension Services and
2.5202 0.02569 2.4800 0.49211 0.242 1.55 3.96
Others
All constraints weighted effects 2.5429 0.02521 2.5000 0.48291 0.233 1.50 3.83
Source: Author Survey Data (2022)

Using student t-test, the mean value of diverse agro-ecological, climatic and related factors (t366
= 12.505; p-value = 0.000), the mean value of gaps between demands and supplies, genetic
resources and research (t366 = 5. 635; p-value = 0.000), the mean value of favorable
governmental policies and regulations and other factors (t366 = 11.525; p-value = 0.000) and
the mean value of overall potentials (t 366 = 12.994; p-value = 0.000) were significantly higher
than the average value of the five-point Likert scale which was 3.00, respectively. However,
the mean value of agronomic constraints (t366 = -7.039; p-value = 0.000), the mean value of
agronomic constraints ( = -18.134; p-value = 0.000), the mean value of economic constraints

32
(t366 = -31.202; p-value = 0.000), the mean value of research, extension services and other
factors (t366 = -26.897; p-value = 0.000) and the mean value of overall constraints (t 366 = -
18.678; p-value = 0.000) were statistically significantly lower than the average value of the
five-point Likert scale which was 3.00, respectively even though the mean value of
environmental constraints (t366 = 42.883; p-value = 0.000) was statistically significantly higher
than the average value of the five-point Likert scale which was 3.00 (Table 4.3).
Table 4.3: Effects of the explanatory variables on bread wheat production volumes
Test Value = 3.00
Dimensions of the explanatory variables 95% CI Δ
t df Sig. MeanΔ
LB UB
Diverse Agro-Ecological, Climatic and Related
12.505 366 0.000 0.263 0.221 0.304
Factors
Gaps between Demands and Supplies, Genetic
5.635 366 0.000 0.114 0.074 0.153
resources and Research
Favorable Governmental Policies and Regulations,
11.525 366 0.000 0.190 0.158 0.222
and Others
Average values of all potentials 12.994 366 0.000 0.189 0.160 0.217
Environmental Constraints -7.039 366 0.000 -0.277 -0.354 -0.199
Agronomic Constraints -18.134 366 0.000 -0.457 -0.507 -0.408
Economic Constraints -31.202 366 0.000 -0.663 -0.704 -0.621
Research, Extension Services and Others -26.897 366 0.000 -0.520 -0.558 -0.482
All constraints weighted effects -18.678 366 0.000 -0.480 -0.530 -0.429
Source: Author Survey Data (2022)

Based on the above findings, it is possible to infer that the diverse agro-ecological, climatic
and related factors, gaps between demands and supplies, genetic resources and research and
favorable governmental policies and regulations, and others were the candidate potentials
and/or opportunities while the agronomic constraints, economic constraints, research,
extension services and others and the overall constraints were the possible challenges of bread
wheat production in the selected rural Kebeles of the two districts of Bale Zone.

4.3. Correlations between Dependant and Explanatory Variables

Correlation analysis is a statistical analysis to measure the strength of a relationship between
the variables. In this study, Pearson Correlation coefficient (r) was used to determine the
strength and direction of the relationship between the continuous variables; namely, bread
wheat production and the dimensions of the possible potentials, and the strength and direction
of the relationship between bread wheat production and the dimensions of the possible
challenges/constraints addressed. Pearson Correlation coefficient (r) can take values from -1 to
+1 and size of the value of the coefficient indicates the strength of the relationship and (- or +)

33
indicates the direction. If the correlation coefficient is 0, there is no relationship between the
variables.
As clearly observable from Table 4.4 presented below, diverse agro-ecological, climatic and
related factors (DAEC) (r = 0.946; p-value = 0.000), gaps between demands and supplies,
genetic resources and research (GDSGR) (r = 0.037; p-value = 0.480), favorable governmental
policies and regulations and others (GPRO) (r =0.941; p-value = 0.000), all potentials (r =
0.830; p-value = 0.000), environmental constraints (ENVTCON) (r = -0.887; p-value = 0.000),
agronomic constraints (AGROCON) (r = -0.880; p-value = 0.000), economic constraints
(ECONCON) (r = -0.858; p-value = 0.000), research, extension services and other constraints
(REXSERO) (r = -0.921; p-value = 0.000), and overall challenges (r = -0.902; p-value = 0.000)
had statistically significant correlation with the bread wheat production volumes in the rural
Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone. All four dimensions of the challenges and
overall pooled constraints had statistically significant negative correlations with the bread

wheat production volumes while diverse agro-ecological, climatic and related factors,

favorable governmental policies and regulations and other related factors, and all potentials
had statistically significant positive correlations with the bread wheat production volumes in
the rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone (Table 4.4).
Table 4.4: Correlations among dimensions of potentials and constraints, and BWPV
BWPV
Factors
Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N
Diverse Agro-Ecological, Climatic and Related Factors 0.946 **
0.000 367
Gaps between Demands and Supplies, Genetic resources 367
0.037 0.480
and Research
Favorable Governmental Policies and Regulations, and 0.000 367
0.941**
Others
Average values of all potentials 0.830** 0.000 367

Environmental Constraints -0.877** 0.000 367

Agronomic Constraints -0.880** 0.000 367

Economic Constraints -0.858** 0.000 367

Research, Extension Services and Others -0.921** 0.000 367

All constraints weighted effects -0.902** 0.000 367

Source: Author Survey Data (2022); **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

If the p-value (significance) of the Pearson Correlation coefficients (r) are less than 0.01, the
researcher can identify a relationship between the potentials and bread wheat production
volume, and the challenges and bread wheat production volume. According to the details in the

34
above table, the significant value is 0.000 for all opportunities and challenges addressed in the
study except for gaps between demands and supplies, genetic resources and research
(GDSGR). Therefore, there are strong relationships between bread wheat production volume
and all opportunities and challenges addressed in the study except for gaps between demands
and supplies, genetic resources and research. If the Pearson correlation value is plus value (p =
+0.xxx), there is a positive relationship between the variables and if its value is negative (p = -
0.xxx), there is a negative relationship between the variables.
Based on the above findings, it is possible to infer that diverse agro-ecological, climatic and

related factors, favorable governmental policies and regulations and other related factors, and

all potentials have enhanced bread wheat production increase while all four dimensions of the
challenges and their overall pooled effects have compromised bread wheat production by
acting as the barriers of production and productivity.
4.4. Land Owned and Bread Wheat Production Status
The responses of the selected heads of the households (HHs) revealed that the average of total
land owned was 5.99(±1.543SD) hectares; the mean size of land used for agricultural
production was 5.49(±1.528SD) hectares; and that of farm land used for wheat production was
3.62(±1.098SD) hectares, respectively. The average amount of bread wheat produced by the
wheat grower farming HHs in 2021/22 fiscal year was 148.16 (±56.115SD; i.e., 40.93 quintals
per hectare) quintals in the sampled rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone.
Standard error of the mean (SEM), median values, variances, minimuim and maximum values
of each dimensions of the potentials andd the constraints are presented in the table below (Table
4.5).
Table 4.5: Amount of land owned and bread wheat production among respondents
Variables considered Mean SEM Median SD Varia. Min. Max.
Total Sizes of land owned 5.99 .081 5.00 1.543 2.382 3 8
Size of land used for
5.49 .080 5.00 1.528 2.335 3 8
agricultural production
Size of farm land used for
3.62 .057 3.00 1.098 1.206 2 7
wheat production
Amount of wheat produced
40.98 .459 45.00 8.793 77.314 10 55
during last year (2020/21)
Amount of wheat produced
per hectare of wheat farm 41.19 .501 45.00 9.590 91.966 25 55
land
Bread wheat Production
148.16 2.929 135.00 56.115 3148.896 50 385
Volumes
Source: Author Survey Data (2022)

35
4.5. Potentials (Opportunities) of Bread Wheat Production
4.5.1. Diverse Agro-Ecological, Climatic and Related Factors
The data given in the Table 4.6 below revealed that there were different items posed for
respondents from selected rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts on diverse agro-
ecological, climatic and related factors. The respondents were asked to express their levels of
agreements and/or disagreements to the assertion that stated that bread wheat production is
promoted or enhanced by the presence of favorable climatic conditions in their Kebeles.
157(42.78%) of the respondents disagreed to the assertion that stated that bread wheat
production is promoted or enhanced by the presence of favorable climatic conditions in their
Kebeles while 190(51.77%) agreed with it. Again, the respondents were asked to express their
levels of agreements and/or disagreements to the assertion that stated that bread wheat
production is promoted or enhanced by the presence of diverse agro-ecological zones in their
Kebeles. 190(51.77%) of the respondents disagreed with the assertion that stated that bread
wheat production is promoted or enhanced by the presence of diverse agro-ecological zones in
their Kebeles while 133(36.24%) agreed with it. Moreover, the respondents were asked to
express their levels of agreements and/or disagreements to the assertion that stated that bread
wheat production is promoted or enhanced by the presence of adequate rainfall in their Kebeles.
82(22.34%) of the respondents disagreed with the statement which expressed that bread wheat
production is promoted or enhanced by the presence of adequate rainfall in their Kebeles while
260(70.84%) agreed with it. Furthermore, the respondents were asked to express their levels of
agreements and/or disagreements to the assertion that stated that bread wheat production is
promoted or enhanced by the presence of fertile and suitable soil types in their Kebeles.
74(20.16%) of the respondents disagreed with the assertion that stated that bread wheat
production is promoted or enhanced by the presence of fertile and suitable soil types in their
Kebeles while 270(73.57%) disagreed with it. Detailed analyses’ results for the other items are
presented in Table 4.6.

Table 4.6: Respondent’s agreement status on diverse agro-ecological, climatic and related
factors
SN Diverse Agro-Ecological, Climatic and Related Responses on Likert’s Scales
Factors 1 2 3 4 5
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by …
301 the presence of favorable climatic conditions Freq. 43 114 20 154 36
Percent 11.72 31.06 5.45 41.96 9.81
302 the presence of perennial rivers for irrigation Freq. 171 126 13 45 12

36
 Percent 46.59 34.33 3.54 12.26 3.27
303 the presence of diverse agro-ecological zones Freq. 74 116 44 76 57
Percent 20.16 31.61 11.99 20.71 15.53
304 the presence of favorable and conducive Freq. 10 43 14 188 112
temperature Percent 2.72 11.72 3.81 51.23 30.52
305 the presence of adequate rainfall Freq. 23 59 25 176 84
Percent 6.27 16.08 6.81 47.96 22.89
306 the presence of fertile and suitable soil types Freq. 21 53 23 187 83
Percent 5.72 14.44 6.27 50.95 22.62
307 the possibility of twice production per annum Freq. 29 32 34 179 93
due to bi-modal rainfall Percent 7.90 8.72 9.26 48.77 25.34
Source: Author Survey Data (2022)
There are diverse traditional agroecosystems in Ethiopia which is characterized by highly
varied agro-climates and diverse growing conditions. These agroecosystems constitute major
in situ repositories of crop genetic diversity. This in turn facilitates the maintenance of species
and genetic diversity in the field. Diverse landraces can be utilized in developing new crop
varieties and addressing acute yield constraints. Again, such diversity provides security for the
farmer against diseases, pests, drought, and other stresses. Genetic diversity also allows farmers
to exploit the full range of the country's highly varied microenvironments differing in
characteristics such as soil, water, temperature, altitude, slope, and fertility (Brush, 2000).
Again, in the northern Ethiopia, durum wheat genotypes consist of 265 farmers’ varieties (FVs)
as well as 24 improved varieties (IMVs) have been recently evaluated in northern Ethiopia
(Mengistu, Kidane, Fadda, and Pè, 2016). Durum wheat is among the most important Triticum
species with higher morphological variability among landraces that is confirmed to found in
Ethiopia (Meseret Asmamaw, 2016).

The major opportunities of wheat maize and teff production in Ambos and Toke Kuttaye
Districts of West Showa Zone in Ethiopia were the availability of irrigable land, availability of
fertile land, location of the districts for agricultural marketing and good weather condition
(Bultossa Terefe, 2018). Similarly, favorable climate conditions are among the major available
opportunities which have been taken to stimulate production and productivity of Ethiopian
wheat.

Therefore, it is possible to infer that the presence of diverse agro-ecological, climatic and
related factors effected increment in bread wheat production and productivity in the sampled
rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone.

37
4.5.2. Gaps between Demands and Supplies, Genetic resources and Research
The data given in the Table 4.7 below revealed that there were different items posed for
respondents from selected rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts on gaps between
demands and supplies factors. The respondents were asked to express their levels of agreements
and/or disagreements to the assertion that stated that bread wheat production was promoted by
the increased wheat consumption. 61(16.62%) of the respondents disagreed to the assertion
that stated that bread wheat production was promoted by the increased wheat consumption
while 260(70.84%) agreed with it. Again, the respondents were asked to express their levels of
agreements and/or disagreements to the assertion that stated that bread wheat production was
enhanced by rapid population growth in combination with expansion of towns and changes in
easy and fast food preference of the people in their Kebeles. 83(22.62%) of the respondents
disagreed with the assertion that stated that bread wheat production was enhanced by rapid
population growth in combination with expansion of towns and changes in easy and fast food
preference of the people while 248(67.57%) agreed with it. Detailed analyses’ results for the
other items are presented in Table 4.7.

Table 4.7: Respondent’s agreement status on gaps between demands and supplies
SN Gaps between Demands and Supplies, Genetic Responses on Likert’s Scales
resources and Research 1 2 3 4 5
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by …
308 increased wheat consumption Freq. 32 29 46 180 80
Percent 8.72 7.90 12.53 49.05 21.80
309 presence of huge gaps between demands and Freq. 27 25 41 197 77
supply of wheat Percent 7.36 6.81 11.17 53.68 20.98
310 rapid population growth in combination with Freq. 36 47 36 203 45
expansion of towns and changes in easy and Percent 9.81 12.81 9.81 55.31 12.26
fast food preference of the people
Source: Author Survey Data (2022)
Ethiopia remains a net importer of wheat although the country has various potentials and
opportunities to increase its wheat production. The country is experiencing a huge gap between
production (4.5 million tons in 2016) and consumption levels (5.4 million tons in 2016) which
results in import dependence. For instance, in 2016 the Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise
imported 750 thousand tons from Russia and Argentina and 300 thousand tons through food
aid, resulting in 1.05 million tons of imported wheat. As a result of the rapid urbanization and
of the increasing population, consumption of wheat products like flour, bread, biscuits and
pasta (e.g. macaroni, spaghetti, etc.) is rising. The demand for quality wheat, especially durum
wheat, is high and not met by the local production (Brasesco, Asgedom, Sommacal, and Casari,

38
2019). Again, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) (2021) projected wheat
production in Ethiopia for 2021/22 at 5.18 million tons, up by 1.6 percent over the 2020/21
production estimate based on data of Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN).
However, FAS/Addis Ababa forecasts wheat consumption in MY 2021/22 to reach to 6.7
million MT, a nearly one percent increase over 2020/21. In Ethiopia demand for wheat is
growing, reflecting population growth, and shifting dietary patterns linked to urbanization. The
demand curve in years past was nearly flat because of constrained supply as a result of a
shortage of foreign currency to import wheat. Therefore, this wide gap between production and
demand is one of the opportunities to be exploited by bread wheat farmers to increase its
production and productivity.

Based on the report of FAOSTAT, deficit of local wheat production to satisfy demands as
indicated by supply was 861.951 tons in 2005, 526.206 tons in 2006, and 600.237 tons in 2007.
This implies that there is huge gap between production and demand for bread wheat in Ethiopia.
Thus, bread wheat farmers can exploit this as one of the opportunities to maximize and increase
their annual bread wheat production. Similarly, increased domestic demand for industrial wheat
products due to urbanization and lifestyle change and increased wheat consumption
(AACCSAA, 2017) is among the major available opportunities which have been taken to
stimulate production and productivity of Ethiopian wheat.

Field evaluation of agro-morphological characters and laboratory analysis of grain proteins and
molecular markers (ISSR) of tetraploid wheat (Triticum durum Desf.) germplasm from
Ethiopia revealed the presence of broad genetic variation among accessions grown in different
regions of Ethiopia that were clustered into 15 clusters, with nine accessions remaining solitary
(Faris Hailu, 2011).

Diverse landraces of wheat present in Ethiopia can be utilized in developing new crop varieties
and addressing acute yield constraints. Again, such diversity provides security for the farmer
against diseases, pests, drought, and other stresses. Genetic diversity also allows farmers to
exploit the full range of the country's highly varied microenvironments differing in
characteristics such as soil, water, temperature, altitude, slope, and fertility (Brush, 2000). The
presence of diverse genetic resources of wheat could be substantiated by the findings that
revealed that the Ethiopian landraces were 0.19 and 0.24, 1.04, and 0.81, respectively
indicating high genetic differentiation and limited gene flow; and diversity indices verify that
the landrace panel was more diverse with (I = 0.7, He = 0.46, uHe = 0.46) than the advanced

39
lines (I = 0.6, He = 0.42, uHe = 0.42) (Negisho, Shibru, Pillen, Ordon and Wehner, 2021).
Again, in the northern Ethiopia, durum wheat genotypes consist of 265 farmers’ varieties (FVs)
as well as 24 improved varieties (IMVs) have been recently evaluated in northern Ethiopia
(Mengistu, Kidane, Fadda, and Pè, 2016). Durum wheat is among the most important Triticum
species with higher morphological variability among landraces that is confirmed to found in
Ethiopia (Meseret Asmamaw, 2016).

Ethiopia is also considered to be the center of genetic diversity of durum wheat (Triticum
turgidum L var durum), which is grown on heavy black clay soils (Vertisols) of the central and
northern highlands of Ethiopia between 1800-2800 masl. At present, wheat is produced solely
under rainfed conditions. Durum wheat, differentiated by its big size and weight, is mainly
suitable for pasta, macaroni, pastini and other manufacturing products.

The data given in the Table 4.8 below revealed that there were different items posed for
respondents from selected rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts on genetic resources
and research related factors. The respondents were asked to express their levels of agreements
and/or disagreements to the assertion that stated that bread wheat production was promoted by
the poor infrastructure and separation of agricultural education from research and extension.
139(37.87%) of the respondents disagreed with the statement which expressed that bread wheat
production was promoted by the poor infrastructure and separation of agricultural education
from research and extension while 119(32.43%) agreed with it and 109(29.70%) were neutral
with it that resulted in higher mean than the average of the Likert scale. Furthermore, the
respondents were asked to express their levels of agreements and/or disagreements to the
assertion that stated that bread wheat production was enhanced by people’s readiness to accept
and adopt new technologies and improved varieties in their Kebeles. 118(32.15%) of the
respondents disagreed with the assertion that stated that bread wheat production was enhanced
by people’s readiness to accept and adopt new technologies and improved varieties in their
Kebeles while 147(40.05%) disagreed with it. Detailed analyses’ results for the other items are
presented in Table 4.8.

Table 4.8: Respondent’s agreement status on genetic resources and research

SN Gaps between Demands and Supplies, Genetic Responses on Likert’s Scales
resources and Research 1 2 3 4 5
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by …
311 strong interest of national and international Freq. 120 152 56 26 13
research organizations for crop improvement Percent 32.70 41.42 15.26 7.08 3.54
312 Freq. 7 132 109 102 17

40
 poor infrastructure and separation of Percent 1.91 35.97 29.70 27.79 4.63
agricultural education from research and
313 Presence
extensiondiversified genetic resources and Freq. 18 134 123 92 0
varieties of wheat Percent 4.90 36.51 33.51 25.07 0.00
314 people’s readiness to accept and adopt new Freq. 9 109 102 140 7
technologies and improved varieties Percent 2.45 29.70 27.79 38.15 1.91
Source: Author Survey Data (2022)
Agricultural research and technology generation has been an important aspect of government
efforts for the development of Ethiopian agriculture for the last several decades. It is now over
five decades since agricultural research activities were institutionalized. Currently, there are
many agricultural research institutions at various levels that engage in agricultural research and
technology generation and dissemination activities. But the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural
Research (EIAR) remains the primary agricultural research agency. The EIAR is a federal
institution mandated to design research policy and strategies, assist in capacity building,
coordinates national research activities and undertakes researches with its own research centers
and in collaboration with other regional research institutes. The institutional structure of
Ethiopia’s agricultural R&D system has undergone numerous rounds of restructuring over
recent periods.

While the Ethiopian research system has supported wheat producers across the country, it is
difficult to say that the wheat value-chain at the pre-production stage in general and the research
and extension systems in particular provide demand-driven support to wheat producers.
National capacity in terms of facilitating identification, sourcing, import, and multiplication
and dissemination of new and proven agricultural technologies should be strengthened. Limited
participation and integration of the private sector in wheat value added activities undermined
the whole value chain system. The sustainability and efficiency of the wheat value chain at the
upstream stage needs strong but well regulated participation of the private sector. Previous
studies, for instance Byerlee et al. (2007) and Yu et al. (2011), argued that increased private
sector participation would strengthen the Ethiopian seed system.

In summary, the major findings of the present study on the above dimension of opportunities
are highly consistent with the findings of other researchers and/or scholars whose results are
described above. Therefore, it is possible to infer that the gaps between demands and supplies,
genetic resources and research related factors failed to effect increment in bread wheat
production and productivity in the sampled rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale
Zone.

41
4.5.3. Favorable Governmental Policies and Regulations, and Others
The data given in the Table 4.9 below revealed that there were different items posed for
respondents from selected rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts on favorable
governmental policies and regulations, and other factors. The respondents were asked to
express their levels of agreements and/or disagreements to the assertion that stated that bread
wheat production was promoted by the presence of NGOs working on wheat development
projects in their Kebeles. 162(44.14%) of the respondents disagreed to the assertion that stated
that bread wheat production was promoted by the presence of NGOs working on wheat
development projects in their Kebeles while 84(22.89%) agreed with it. Again, the respondents
were asked to express their levels of agreements and/or disagreements to the assertion that
stated that bread wheat production was enhanced by high level of urbanization. 304(82.83%)
of the respondents disagreed with the assertion that stated that bread wheat production was
enhanced by high level of urbanization while 55(14.99%) agreed with it. Moreover, the
respondents were asked to express their levels of agreements and/or disagreements to the
assertion that stated that bread wheat production was promoted by the availability of human
resource and knowledge for the improvement and development of the crop. 184(50.14%) of
the respondents disagreed with the statement which expressed that bread wheat production was
promoted by the availability of human resource and knowledge for the improvement and
development of the crop while 116(31.61%) agreed with it. Furthermore, the respondents were
asked to express their levels of agreements and/or disagreements to the assertion that stated
that bread wheat production was enhanced by the importance of the crop in food self-
sufficiency as a strategic crop at regional and national levels. 14(3.81%) of the respondents
disagreed with the assertion that stated that bread wheat production was enhanced by the
importance of the crop in food self-sufficiency as a strategic crop at regional and national levels
while 346(94.28%) disagreed with it. Detailed analyses’ results for the other items are
presented in Table 4.9.

Table 4.9: Respondent’s agreement status on favorable governmental policies and regulations,
and others
SN Favorable Governmental Policies and Responses on Likert’s Scales
Regulations, and Others 1 2 3 4 5
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by …
315 government’s suitable agricultural policies Freq. 9 66 114 168 10
designed to support farmers at the grassroots Percent 2.45 17.98 31.06 45.78 2.72
level
316 Freq. 15 147 121 70 14

42
 presence of NGOs working on wheat Percent 4.09 40.05 32.97 19.07 3.81
317 developmentofprojects
deployment trained and skilled agricultural Freq. 13 88 112 144 10
extension workers Percent 3.54 23.98 30.52 39.24 2.72
318 high level of urbanization Freq. 166 138 8 48 7
Percent 45.23 37.60 2.18 13.08 1.91
319 increased domestic demand for industrial wheat Freq. 8 6 11 191 151
products due to urbanization and lifestyle Percent 2.18 1.63 3.00 52.04 41.14
change
320 availability of human resource and knowledge Freq. 7 177 67 109 7
for the improvement and development of the Percent 1.91 48.23 18.26 29.70 1.91
crop
321 the built-up of asphalt road and provision of Freq. 141 156 11 47 12
infrastructure facilities in and around the towns Percent 38.42 42.51 3.00 12.81 3.27
322 the importance of the crop in food self- Freq. 9 5 7 185 161
sufficiency as a strategic crop at regional and Percent 2.45 1.36 1.91 50.41 43.87
national levels
323 the diverse use value of the crop Freq. 13 13 13 173 155
Percent 3.54 3.54 3.54 47.14 42.23
Source: Author Survey Data (2022)
Introduction of economic reform in the form of structural adjustment programs, aiming at
sustaining a liberalized market-oriented economy, has given opportunities for smallholder
farmers to diversify their products and to target high-value markets such as export and
processing-oriented market channels in sub-Saharan countries (Negassa et al., 2013). Over the
past 20 years, despite the existence of strong markets for potential substitute grains, both wheat
production and consumption have increased in Ethiopia. The government has played an active
role in wheat market by starting large investments in extension programs and adopting
protectionist policies to ensure government control of all commercial grain imports (Bergh et
al., 2012). Similarly, several policy initiatives (Taffesse et al., 2013) are among the major
available opportunities which have been taken to stimulate production and productivity of
Ethiopian wheat.

The major opportunities of maize, teff and wheat production in Ambos and Toke Kuttaye
Districts of West Showa Zone in Ethiopia were the availability of irrigable land, availability of
motivated and hardworking farmers, and location of the districts for agricultural marketing
(Bultossa Terefe, 2018). The presence of various opportunities to install the agro-processing
capacity of the wheat sector for domestically produced wheat is another opportunity for wheat
farmers to increase and improve bread wheat production and productivity. Currently,
urbanization is the golden opportunity for the development of marketing of agricultural cereal
crops like wheat (FAO, 2017).

The interest of farmers to use improved varieties; strong interest of national and international
research organizations for crop improvement; the importance of the crop in food self-

43
sufficiency as a strategic crop at regional and national levels; the diverse use value of the crop;
and availability of human resource and knowledge for the improvement and development of
the crop were also the other available wheat production opportunities. On the other hand, to
some extent, the built-up of asphalt road and provision of infrastructure facilities in and around
the towns were the important opportunities which can support the marketing of wheat in
Ethiopia (Mahamud, 2016).

Wheat farmer’s readiness to accept new technologies, the presence of perennial rivers for
irrigation, government’s suitable agricultural policies designed to support farmers at the
grassroots level and presence of NGOs working on development projects are important
production and marketing opportunities of wheat at Halaba special districts of Ethiopia. The
numbers of population and town development also have their own contribution to the
development of the wheat sector. According to Tadesse et al. (2018), in the previous time,
traditionally wheat was not considered as the leading staple food crop in sub-Saharan African
countries including Ethiopia, but nowadays, rapid population growth in combination with
expansion of towns and changes in easy and fast food preference of the people becomes the
opportunity for wheat production as well as its marketing. Similarly, the report by FAO (2017)
reveals that increasing urban demand for more food and higher value of processed food
provides a good opportunity for producers and agribusiness including suppliers of production
inputs.

In summary, the major findings of the present study on the above dimension of opportunities
are highly consistent with the findings of other researchers and/or scholars whose results are
described above. Therefore, it is possible to infer that favorable governmental policies and
regulations and other factors effected increment in bread wheat production and productivity in
the sampled rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone.

4.6. Constraints (Challenges) of Bread Wheat Production

4.6.1. Environmental Constraints
The data given in the Table 4.10 below revealed that there were different items posed for
respondents from selected rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts on environmental
constraints of bread wheat production. The respondents were asked to express their levels of
agreements and/or disagreements to the assertion that stated that bread wheat production was
promoted by inadequate drainage systems in their Kebeles. 264(71.93%) of the respondents
disagreed to the assertion that stated that bread wheat production was promoted by inadequate

44
drainage systems in their Kebeles while 94(25.61%) agreed with it. Again, the respondents
were asked to express their levels of agreements and/or disagreements to the assertion that
stated that bread wheat production was enhanced by overdrawn and polluted water supplies.
182(49.59%) of the respondents disagreed with the assertion that stated that bread wheat
production was enhanced or affected by overdrawn and polluted water supplies while
39(10.63%) agreed with it. Moreover, the respondents were asked to express their levels of
agreements and/or disagreements to the assertion that stated that bread wheat production was
promoted by erratic and shortage of rainfall. 306(83.38%) of the respondents disagreed with
the statement which expressed that bread wheat production was promoted by erratic and
shortage of rainfall while 54(14.71%) agreed with it. Furthermore, the respondents were asked
to express their levels of agreements and/or disagreements to the assertion that stated that bread
wheat production was enhanced by the climatic changes (CC). 316(86.10%) of the respondents
disagreed with the assertion that stated that bread wheat production was enhanced by the
climatic changes (CC) while 51(13.90%) were neutral with it. Still, the respondents were asked
to express their levels of agreements and/or disagreements to the assertion that stated that bread
wheat production was enhanced by the land degradation. 281(78.20%) of the respondents
disagreed with the assertion that stated that bread wheat production was enhanced by the land
degradation while 70(19.07%) agreed with it. Again, the respondents were asked to express
their levels of agreements and/or disagreements to the assertion that stated that bread wheat
production was enhanced by the low and declining soil fertility. 314(85.56%) of the
respondents disagreed with the assertion that stated that bread wheat production was enhanced
by the low and declining soil fertility while 33(8.99%) agreed with it. Moreover, they were
asked to express their levels of agreements and/or disagreements to the assertion that stated
that bread wheat production was enhanced by soil erosion and depletion of soil nutrients.
273(74.39%) of the respondents disagreed with the assertion that stated that bread wheat
production was enhanced by soil erosion and depletion of soil nutrients while 66(17.98%)
agreed with it. Detailed analyses’ results for the other items are presented in Table 4.10.

Table 4.10: Respondent’s agreement status on environmental constraints

SN Environmental Constraints Responses on Likert’s Scales
1 2 3 4 5
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by …
401 inadequate drainage systems Freq. 116 148 9 85 9
Percent 31.61 40.33 2.45 23.16 2.45
402 overdrawn and polluted water supplies Freq. 111 71 146 39 0
Percent 30.25 19.35 39.78 10.63 0.00

45
 403 devastating effect of salinity and water logging Freq. 158 125 45 15 24
Percent 43.05 34.06 12.26 4.09 6.54
404 erratic and shortage of rainfall Freq. 160 146 7 47 7
Percent 43.60 39.78 1.91 12.81 1.91
405 recurring droughts Freq. 16 15 13 156 167
Percent 4.36 4.09 3.54 42.51 45.50
406 climatic changes (CC) Freq. 112 204 51 0 0
Percent 30.52 55.59 13.90 0.00 0.00
407 occurrences of flooding Freq. 10 38 9 180 130
Percent 2.72 10.35 2.45 49.05 35.42
408 unreliable weather conditions Freq. 11 47 9 205 95
Percent 3.00 12.81 2.45 55.86 25.89
409 land degradation Freq. 96 191 10 62 8
Percent 26.16 52.04 2.72 16.89 2.18
410 low and declining soil fertility Freq. 153 161 20 31 2
Percent 41.69 43.87 5.45 8.45 0.54
411 deforestation and desertification Freq. 128 159 43 20 17
Percent 34.88 43.32 11.72 5.45 4.63
412 owning small size of land Freq. 86 167 28 55 31
Percent 23.43 45.50 7.63 14.99 8.45
413 soil erosion and depletion of soil nutrients Freq. 113 160 28 42 24
Percent 30.79 43.60 7.63 11.44 6.54
414 High soil acidity Freq. 20 25 63 164 95
Percent 5.45 6.81 17.17 44.69 25.89
Source: Author Survey Data (2022)
There are a number of environmental constraints and challenges that deter the production and
productivity of wheat across the globe and also in Ethiopia. For instance, according to empirical
findings of several independent researchers and scholars, environmental constraints constitute
waterlogging, soil salinity, irrigation water supplies, drainage problems and climatic factors
(Mudasser, Hussain, and Aslam, 2001; Degye Goshu, Tigabu Degu and Fatunbi Oluwole,
2019; Mudasser, Hussain, and Aslam, 2001; etc). Water logging and salinity problems were
the two land evils which occur together. Great reduction in fertilizer and input use efficiency
on the salt-affected soils resulting into decline in yield and production is one justification
towards that ends (Mudasser, Hussain, and Aslam, 2001). Again, wheat production constraints
in Ethiopia included rain failure and soil erosion (Chernet Worku and Mamaru Abebe, 2020).
Nitrogen deficiency of the soil and depletion of soil fertility were found to deter bread wheat
production and productivity (Waddington, et al., 2009).

In summary, the major findings of the present study on the above dimension of challenges are
highly consistent with the findings of other researchers and/or scholars whose results are
described above. Therefore, it is possible to infer that the environmental constraints constrained

46
increment in bread wheat production and productivity in the sampled rural Kebeles of Sinana
and Gasera districts of Bale Zone.

4.6.2. Agronomic Constraints

The data given in the Table 4.11 below revealed that there were different items posed for
respondents from selected rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts on agronomic
constraints of bread wheat production. The respondents were asked to express their levels of
agreements and/or disagreements to the assertion that stated that bread wheat production was
promoted by improper land leveling combined with delay in sowing than recommended dates
in their Kebeles. 265(72.21%) of the respondents disagreed to the assertion that stated that
bread wheat production was promoted by improper land leveling combined with delay in
sowing than recommended dates in their Kebeles while 53(14.44%) agreed with it. Again, the
respondents were asked to express their levels of agreements and/or disagreements to the
assertion that stated that bread wheat production was enhanced by improper land leveling
combined with delay in sowing than the recommended dates. 304(82.83%) of the respondents
disagreed with the assertion that stated that bread wheat production was enhanced by improper
land leveling combined with delay in sowing than the recommended dates while 36(9.81%)
agreed with it. Moreover, the respondents were asked to express their levels of agreements
and/or disagreements to the assertion that stated that bread wheat production was promoted by
the existence of significant seed quality variation. 212(57.77%) of the respondents disagreed
with the statement which expressed that bread wheat production was promoted by the existence
of significant seed quality variation while 86(23.43%) agreed with it. Furthermore, the
respondents were asked to express their levels of agreements and/or disagreements to the
assertion that stated that bread wheat production was enhanced by limited use of purchased
farm inputs. 317(86.38%) of the respondents disagreed with the assertion that stated that bread
wheat production was enhanced by limited use of purchased farm inputs while 33(8.99%)
agreed with it. Still, the respondents were asked to express their levels of agreements and/or
disagreements to the assertion that stated that bread wheat production was enhanced by high
prices or costs of inputs. 304(82.83%) of the respondents disagreed with the assertion that
stated that bread wheat production was enhanced by high prices or costs of inputs while
40(10.90%) agreed with it. Again, the respondents were asked to express their levels of
agreements and/or disagreements to the assertion that stated that bread wheat production was
enhanced by the prevalence of pests and diseases. 282(76.84%) of the respondents disagreed
with the assertion that stated that bread wheat production was enhanced by the prevalence of

47
pests and diseases while 62(16.86%) agreed with it. Moreover, they were asked to express their
levels of agreements and/or disagreements to the assertion that stated that bread wheat
production was enhanced by inefficient use of available but scarce resources. 203(55.31%) of
the respondents disagreed with the assertion that stated that bread wheat production was
enhanced by inefficient use of available but scarce resources while 139(37.87%) agreed with
it. Detailed analyses’ results for the other items are presented in Table 4.11.
Table 4.11: Respondent’s agreement status on agronomic constraints
SN Agronomic Constraints Responses on Likert’s Scales
1 2 3 4 5
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by …
415 the practicing of delayed land preparation and Freq. 106 159 49 28 25
leveling Percent 28.88 43.32 13.35 7.63 6.81
416 high prevalence and high weed growth Freq. 133 166 33 20 15
Percent 36.24 45.23 8.99 5.45 4.09
417 improper land leveling combined with delay in Freq. 117 187 27 18 18
sowing than recommended dates Percent 31.88 50.95 7.36 4.90 4.90
418 severe competition for scarce farm lands Freq. 19 183 17 130 18
Percent 5.18 49.86 4.63 35.42 4.90
419 significant seed quality variability exists Freq. 27 185 69 63 23
Percent 7.36 50.41 18.80 17.17 6.27
420 problems of availability and timely delivery of Freq. 18 196 23 112 18
improved seed and insufficient quantity of Percent 4.90 53.41 6.27 30.52 4.90
delivery
421 limited use of purchased farm inputs Freq. 119 198 17 17 16
Percent 32.43 53.95 4.63 4.63 4.36
422 poor access to improved germplasm Freq. 111 170 24 39 23
Percent 30.25 46.32 6.54 10.63 6.27
423 high prices or costs of inputs Freq. 112 192 23 15 25
Percent 30.52 52.32 6.27 4.09 6.81
424 diminishing genetic resources of wheat Freq. 17 157 56 114 23
Percent 4.63 42.78 15.26 31.06 6.27
425 prevalence of pests and diseases Freq. 94 188 23 44 18
Percent 25.61 51.23 6.27 11.99 4.90
426 high prevalence of diseases (stem rust, leaf rust Freq. 136 169 28 16 18
and stripe rust), environmental factors and pests Percent 37.06 46.05 7.63 4.36 4.90
(aphids, armyworms and birds)
427 inadequacy, inequity, and unreliability in water Freq. 15 28 26 160 138
distribution are jointly affecting the farmers’ Percent 4.09 7.63 7.08 43.60 37.60
irrigation schedules for the wheat crop
428 inefficient use of available but scarce resources Freq. 77 126 25 79 60
Percent 20.98 34.33 6.81 21.53 16.35
429 prevailing mono cropping and decreased crop Freq. 22 210 19 88 28
rotation practices Percent 5.99 57.22 5.18 23.98 7.63
430 less awareness of farmers about improved crop Freq. 97 201 21 24 24
management practices Percent 26.43 54.77 5.72 6.54 6.54
431 application of low level of irrigation facilities Freq. 14 18 25 182 128

48
 Percent 3.81 4.90 6.81 49.59 34.88
432 seasonality of wheat production systems Freq. 108 156 24 51 28
Percent 29.43 42.51 6.54 13.90 7.63
Source: Author Survey Data (2022)
There are a number of agronomic constraints and challenges that deter the production and
productivity of wheat across the globe and also in Ethiopia. For instance, several independent
researchers and scholars reported that there are agronomic constraints that constitute land
leveling, seed and variety, sowing, fertilizer, chemicals, weeds, irrigation water and crop
rotation factors (Mudasser, Hussain, and Aslam, 2001; Degye Goshu, Tigabu Degu and Fatunbi
Oluwole, 2019; Mudasser, Hussain, and Aslam, 2001; etc). Again, wheat production
constraints in Ethiopia included rain failure and soil erosion (Chernet Worku, and Mamaru
Abebe, 2020). The major constraints of maize, teff and wheat production in Ambos and Toke
Kuttaye Districts were found crop worm and disease, price problem, lack of inputs (chemicals,
fertilizers, seed, etc.,), lack of appropriate threshing facilities and storage facilities, high post-
harvest losses, lack of farming oxen, lack of rural credits, lack of education and lack of rural
feeder roads (Bultossa Terefe, 2018).

Yifru Teklu and Hammer (2006) found that there is 100% genetic erosion of both T. durum
and T. dicoccon in Tulo district; 85.7, 100 and 77.8%, genetic erosion for T. durum, T. turgidum
and T. dicoccon in Chiro district correspondingly; and 88.9% genetic erosion for T. durum and
100% genetic erosion for both in T. turgidum and T. dicoccon in Harar Zuriya. These findings
imply that eventual decline and genetic erosion of diverse landrace wheat varieties and cultivars
are one of the constraints that negatively influence efforts of improving bread wheat production
and productivity.

Unavailability of quality seed, shortage supply of nitrogen fertilizers, nitrogen deficiency of

the soil, weeds and depletion of soil fertility found to deter bread wheat production and
productivity (Waddington, et al., 2009). Management constraints accounted for another 20%
of the total yield gap according to the study (Waddington, et al., 2009).

In summary, the major findings of the present study on the above dimension of challenges are
highly consistent with the findings of other researchers and/or scholars whose results are
described above. Therefore, it is possible to infer that the agronomic constraints constrained
increment in bread wheat production and productivity in the sampled rural Kebeles of Sinana
and Gasera districts of Bale Zone.

49
4.6.3. Economic Constraints
The data given in the Table 4.12 below revealed that there were different items posed for
respondents from selected rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts on economic constraints
of bread wheat production. The respondents were asked to express their levels of agreements
and/or disagreements to the assertion that stated that bread wheat production was promoted by
inadequate capital in their Kebeles. 282(76.84%) of the respondents disagreed to the assertion
that stated that bread wheat production was promoted by inadequate capital in their Kebeles
while 50(13.62%) agreed with it. Again, the respondents were asked to express their levels of
agreements and/or disagreements to the assertion that stated that bread wheat production was
enhanced by low market prices of wheat at harvest time. 293(79.84%) of the respondents
disagreed with the assertion that stated that bread wheat production was enhanced by low
market prices of wheat at harvest time while 40(10.90%) agreed with it. Moreover, the
respondents were asked to express their levels of agreements and/or disagreements to the
assertion that stated that bread wheat production was promoted by unavailability and high cost
of improved seeds. 308(83.92%) of the respondents disagreed with the statement which
expressed that bread wheat production was promoted by unavailability and high cost of
improved seeds while 34(9.26%) agreed with it. Detailed analyses’ results for the other items
are presented in Table 4.12.

Table 4.120: Respondent’s agreement status on economic constraints

SN Economic Constraints Responses on Likert’s Scales
1 2 3 4 5
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by …
433 higher fertilizer price and delayed delivery Freq. 120 171 24 23 29
Percent 32.70 46.59 6.54 6.27 7.90
434 inadequate capital Freq. 114 168 35 50 0
Percent 31.06 45.78 9.54 13.62 0.00
435 lack of credit access Freq. 129 151 37 50 0
Percent 35.15 41.14 10.08 13.62 0.00
436 low market prices of wheat at harvest time Freq. 123 170 34 40 0
Percent 33.51 46.32 9.26 10.90 0.00
437 limited availability of rusts resistant varieties Freq. 36 257 22 32 20
Percent 9.81 70.03 5.99 8.72 5.45
438 unavailability and high cost of improved seeds Freq. 38 270 25 19 15
Percent 10.35 73.57 6.81 5.18 4.09
439 labor shortage Freq. 22 277 17 30 21
Percent 5.99 75.48 4.63 8.17 5.72
440 peasants little interest for agricultural credit usage Freq. 18 29 17 279 24
Percent 4.90 7.90 4.63 76.02 6.54
Source: Author Survey Data (2022)

50
There are a number of economic constraints and challenges that deter the production and
productivity of wheat across the globe and also in Ethiopia. For example, according to
empirical findings of several independent researchers and scholars, economic constraints
constitute output prices, fertilizer prices, irrigation water charges, machinery expenses, land
ownership and size, diseases, and credit accessibility related factors (Mudasser, Hussain, and
Aslam, 2001; Degye Goshu, Tigabu Degu and Fatunbi Oluwole, 2019; Mudasser, Hussain, and
Aslam, 2001; etc). Again, wheat production constraints in Ethiopia included higher fertilizer
price labor shortage, lack of credit access, lack of draft power and delayed fertilizer delivery
(Chernet Worku, and Mamaru Abebe, 2020). Crop worm and disease, price problem, lack of
inputs (chemicals, Fertilizers, Seed, etc.,), lack of appropriate threshing facilities and storage
facilities, high post-harvest losses, lack of farming oxen, lack of rural credits in addition to lack
of education and lack of rural feeder roads reported as major economic constraints of maize,
teff and wheat production in Ambos and Toke Kuttaye Districts in Ethiopia (Bultossa Terefe,
2018). Furthermore, subsistence farming of wheat produced by small-scale farmers through
rain feed production system with less irrigated production and the existing wheat production
and marketing system were the constraints which have their own influence on decreasing yield
of wheat in Ethiopia (Adugnaw Anteneh and Dagninet Asrat, 2020).

Findings of Ahmed, Sulaiman and Mohd (2011) revealed that irrigation water cost, the average
of tenants’ age, family labor, distance from home to field, hired labor, distance of farm to source
of irrigation, number of irrigation, term of irrigation and lack of awareness among wheat
grower especially about wheat technical package were the most factors affecting wheat
productivity and production at Elzeidab irrigated scheme of River Nile State (RNS) which is
regarded as the oldest and biggest scheme belonging to the Ministry of Agriculture of RNS.
Also, the main wheat production constraints were wheat rust diseases, the high costs of
fertilizers, shortage of improved seeds and high seed prices (Netsanet Hei, Hussein Ali
Shimelis and Mark Laing. 2017).

Expensiveness of nitrogen fertilizers, lack of timely access to right machinery among farmers
and lack of financial and credit access were reported to deter bread wheat production and
productivity (Waddington, et al., 2009). According to the panelists, limited access to inputs
constraints accounted for more of the yield gaps than that of the farm management practices
(Waddington, et al., 2009).

51
In summary, the major findings of the present study on the above dimension of challenges are
highly consistent with the findings of other researchers and/or scholars whose results are
described above. Therefore, it is possible to infer that the economic constraints constrained
increment in bread wheat production and productivity in the sampled rural Kebeles of Sinana
and Gasera districts of Bale Zone.

4.6.4. Policy Packages, Regulations, Research and Extension Services

The data given in the Table 4.13 below revealed that there were different items posed for
respondents from selected rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts on policy packages,
regulations, research and extension services related constraints of bread wheat production. The
respondents were asked to express their levels of agreements and/or disagreements to the
assertion that stated that bread wheat production was promoted by low output prices and
uncertainties associated with policies. 310(84.47%) of the respondents disagreed to the
assertion that stated that bread wheat production was promoted by low output prices and
uncertainties associated with policies while 27(7.36%) agreed with it. Again, the respondents
were asked to express their levels of agreements and/or disagreements to the assertion that
stated that bread wheat production was enhanced by usage of wheat for the production of starch
and gluten. 299(81.47%) of the respondents disagreed with the assertion that stated that bread
wheat production was enhanced by usage of wheat for the production of starch and gluten while
46(12.53%) agreed with it. Moreover, the respondents were asked to express their levels of
agreements and/or disagreements to the assertion that stated that bread wheat production was
promoted by less demand for locally produced wheat among processors. 314(85.56%) of the
respondents disagreed with the statement which expressed that bread wheat production was
promoted by less demand for locally produced wheat among processors while 33(8.99%)
agreed with it. Furthermore, the respondents were asked to express their levels of agreements
and/or disagreements to the assertion that stated that bread wheat production was enhanced by
the available research institutions have not that much capacity to multiply wheat seed.
122(33.24%) of the respondents disagreed with the assertion that stated that bread wheat
production was enhanced by the available research institutions have not that much capacity to
multiply wheat seed while 248(59.490%) were neutral with it. Detailed analyses’ results for
the other items are presented in Table 4.13.

52
Table 4.13: Respondent’s agreement status on policy packages, regulations, research, and
extension services
SN Policy Packages, Regulations, Research and Responses on Likert’s Scales
Extension Services 1 2 3 4 5
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by …
441 institutional and policy related unfavorable Freq. 14 44 173 101 35
factors Percent 3.81 11.99 47.14 27.52 9.54
442 low output prices and uncertainties associated Freq. 33 277 20 17 20
with policies Percent 8.99 75.48 5.45 4.63 5.45
443 usage of wheat for the production of starch and Freq. 133 166 22 21 25
gluten Percent 36.24 45.23 5.99 5.72 6.81
444 less demand for locally produced wheat among Freq. 136 178 20 17 16
processors Percent 37.06 48.50 5.45 4.63 4.36
445 absence of highly educated staff for Freq. 89 173 29 55 21
disseminating the information right up to the Percent 24.25 47.14 7.90 14.99 5.72
base level as the role of extension services
446 the available research institutions have not that Freq. 21 101 27 173 45
much capacity to multiply wheat seed Percent 5.72 27.52 7.36 47.14 12.26
447 lack of basic infrastructures which can bridge Freq. 67 203 38 35 24
between rural and urban areas Percent 18.26 55.31 10.35 9.54 6.54
Source: Author Survey Data (2022)
Policy packages and regulations are essential for promoting the wheat production to its
potential level and also distribution of certified and improved seed, quality control, variety
protection, discouraging the sowing of banned varieties, etc. should be backed by proper policy
package and regulations. Policies targeting the crop specific education and training to farmers
would be able to overcome the existing constraints related to policy packages and regulations
and to switch to wheat production opportunities instead of being constraints (Mudasser,
Hussain, and Aslam, 2001).

Several constraints and challenges related to policy packages and regulations found to deter the
production and productivity of wheat across the globe and also in Ethiopia. According to
empirical findings of several independent researchers and scholars, policy packages and
regulations hampered wheat production and productivity worldwide (Mudasser, Hussain, and
Aslam, 2001; Degye Goshu, Tigabu Degu and Fatunbi Oluwole, 2019; Mudasser, Hussain, and
Aslam, 2001; etc).

Again, wheat production constraints in Ethiopia included rain failure and soil erosion (Chernet
Worku, and Mamaru Abebe, 2020). The major constraints of maize, teff and wheat production
in Ambos and Toke Kuttaye Districts were found crop worm and disease, price problem, lack
of inputs (chemicals, fertilizers, seed, etc.,), lack of appropriate threshing facilities and storage

53
facilities, high post-harvest losses, lack of farming oxen, lack of rural credits, lack of education
and lack of rural feeder roads (Bultossa Terefe, 2018).

Mehmood and Walters (1990) argued that both slow and cumbersome procedures for
certification and restrictions on the import of seed for breeding and testing restricted the scope
of spread of certified seed availability and spread in the agricultural sector. They suggested a
single authority for seed variety testing and registration, certification, quality control, variety
protection, and promotion. They also stressed on the need to declare seed industry as high
priority industry with program of incentives for promoting it. Moreover, investment
deregulation, availability of credit, and import regulations must be addressed in this regard.

Akhtar et al. (1986) argued that keeping in view the widespread cultivation of old as well as
banned varieties of wheat and their higher susceptibility towards rust and smut, statutory
regulations would help a lot for controlling and improving the situation for better tomorrow.
Khushk et al. (1989) opined that important changes in developing and extending wheat
varieties were the need of the time. In order to improve the situation, specific wheat varieties
for specific environment should be evolved. In addition, special statutory regulations were
needed in order to bring down the acreage under the banned varieties of wheat accompanied
with high susceptibility risk of rust. Nevertheless, this policy would work if backed by
extensive and effective seed distribution system.

Several constraints and challenges related to research to improve wheat production and the
dissemination of research findings to the wheat farmers through agricultural extension services
found to deter the production and productivity of wheat across the globe and also in Ethiopia.
For example, according to empirical findings of several independent researchers and scholars,
research and extension services that hardly meet the demands of the farmers constrained wheat
production and productivity worldwide (Mudasser, Hussain, and Aslam, 2001; Degye Goshu,
Tigabu Degu and Fatunbi Oluwole, 2019; Mudasser, Hussain, and Aslam, 2001; etc).

Again, wheat production constraints in Ethiopia included rain failure and soil erosion (Chernet
Worku, and Mamaru Abebe, 2020). The major constraints of maize, teff and wheat production
in Ambos and Toke Kuttaye Districts were found Crop worm and disease, Price problem, lack
of inputs (chemicals, Fertilizers, Seed, etc.,), lack of appropriate threshing facilities and storage
facilities, high post-harvest losses, lack of farming oxen, lack of rural credits, lack of education
and lack of rural feeder roads (Bultossa Terefe, 2018).

54
The Generation Challenge Program at CIMMYT asked expert panelists to identify the most
important constraints from a long list in four categories; viz., socio-economic, biotic, abiotic
and management constraints the Generation Challenge Program at CIMMYT asked expert
panelists to identify the six most important constraints from a long list in each of four
categories; viz., socio-economic, biotic, abiotic and management as well as asked to estimate
the yield losses for each constraint category and asked to estimate the yield losses for each
constraint category as well.

Insufficient access to agricultural information and inadequate provision of trainings to farmers

on wheat production and utilization of knowledge were found to deter bread wheat production
and productivity (Waddington, et al., 2009). Inadequate access to agricultural information and
farmer production and utilization of knowledge and training are estimated to result in a
combined 198 kilograms per hectare loss (Waddington, et al., 2009).

Ahmad and Chaudhry (1996) found that poor infrastructure and separation of agricultural
education from research and extension kept farmers of Pakistan’ Punjab from the road to
success as compared with their counterparts in Indian Punjab. Moreover, inadequate funding
for research proved a big hurdle in the development of Pakistan agriculture with not offering
breakthroughs in different fields of agriculture. It was also found that Indian farmers were
practicing management and cultural practices in a much better and efficient way than Pakistani
farmers. It was suggested that improvements in agricultural extension services for adoption,
use, and management of key farm inputs might lead Pakistani farmers also towards path to
prosperity.

Ahmad et al. (1988) by employing Probit Analysis estimated that the farmers’ contact with
extension services was most significant variable regarding weeds control. Radio contact also
showed significant positive relationship with the dependent variable establishing its usefulness
in disseminating knowledge about weeds and their control for increasing wheat production. A
significant positive dummy for social status showed that influential farmers are the key person
in utilizing the technological advances with in village community. This also throws light on
presence of better links between influential farmers and extension services.

Altaf (1994) discussed that Pakistan’s current extension service was designed for subsistence
agriculture. At that time private sector was not involved in providing agrochemicals and other
inputs to the farmers. However, things were changed and role of extension services had become
primarily as a knowledge supplier. So, it was felt to retrain the extension personnel in order to

55
cope with the needs of the time. This would help make them more effective in conveying
farmers the much-required knowledge and will eventually improve the adoption process in case
of modern technology of far more improved agricultural science. He also stressed that in order
to make the extension services as an efficient and vital tool, new type of extension services and
personnel might be needed.

In summary, the major findings of the present study on the above dimension of challenges are
highly consistent with the findings of other researchers and/or scholars whose results are
described above. Therefore, it is possible to infer that the policy packages, regulations, research
and extension services related constraints constrained increment in bread wheat production and
productivity in the sampled rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone.
4.7. Relationships between Production Status, Constraints and Opportunities
The model function that relate bread wheat production with the possible potentials and
constraints is given in the mathematical expression below; i.e.,
BWP Y   0  1  P1   2  P2   3  P3  -  4  C1   5  C2   6  C3   7  C4    i
OR
BWP Y   0  1  All Potentials  - 2  All Constra int s    i
4.7.1. Test of Hypotheses
The regression analyses were used to identify the effect of explanatory variables (the three
dimensions of potentials and the four dimensions of constraints) on the dependent variable
(bread wheat production volume). Simple regression analysis was used to analysis how far the
diverse agro-ecological, climatic and related factors, gaps between demands and supplies,
genetic resources and research, favorable governmental policies and regulations and other
factors, all potentials’ weighted effects, environmental constraints, agronomic constraints,
economic constraints, research, extension services and other constraints, and all constraints’
weighted effects could positively and/or negatively affected BWP of the rural Kebeles of
Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone.
The following were the major hypotheses addressed and tested in this study. These were:
Testing the effect of diverse agro-ecological, climatic and related factors on bread wheat
production volume of the rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone
H01: There is no significant effect of diverse agro-ecological, climatic and related factors on
bread wheat production volume.
Ha1: There is significant association between diverse agro-ecological, climatic and related
factors on bread wheat production volume.

56
Testing the effect of gaps between demands and supplies, genetic resources and research on
bread wheat production volume of the rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale
Zone
H02: There is no significant effect of gaps between demands and supplies, genetic resources
and research on bread wheat production volume.
Ha2: There is significant effect of gaps between demands and supplies, genetic resources and
research on bread wheat production volume.
Testing the effect of favorable governmental policies and regulations and other factors on
bread wheat production volume of the rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale
Zone
H03: There is no significant effect of favorable governmental policies and regulations and other
factors on bread wheat production volume.
Ha3: There is significant effect of favorable governmental policies and regulations and other
factors on bread wheat production volume.
Testing the effect of environmental constraints on bread wheat production volume of the
rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone
H04: There is no significant effect of environmental constraints on bread wheat production
volume.
Ha4: There is significant effect of environmental constraints on bread wheat production
volume.
Testing the effect of agronomic constraints on bread wheat production volume of the rural
Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone
H05: There is no significant effect of agronomic constraints on bread wheat production volume.
Ha5: There is significant effect of agronomic constraints on bread wheat production volume.
Testing the effect of economic constraints on bread wheat production volume of the rural
Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone
H06: There is no significant effect of economic constraints on bread wheat production volume.
Ha6: There is significant effect of economic constraints on bread wheat production volume.

Testing the effect of research, extension services and other constraints on bread wheat
production volume of the rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone
H07: There is no significant effect of research, extension services and other constraints on bread
wheat production volume.

57
Ha7: There is significant effect of research, extension services and other constraints on bread
wheat production volume.

Table 4.14: Regression analysis for factors & bread wheat production volumes (BWPV)
Model Summaryh Durbin-
2
Watson
Model R R Square Adj. R SE of Change Statistics
Estimate
R2Change F Change df1 df2 Sig. F
Change
1 0.946a 0.896 0.895 20.477 0.896 3129.407 1 365 0.000 0.134
2 0.037b 0.001 -0.001 63.317 0.001 0.500 1 365 0.480 0.011
3 0.941c 0.886 0.886 21.381 0.886 2840.256 1 365 0.000 0.121
4 0.877d 0.769 0.768 30.473 0.769 1212.896 1 365 0.000 0.247
5 0.880e 0.775 0.775 30.037 0.775 1259.136 1 365 0.000 0.467
6 0.858f 0.737 0.736 32.509 0.737 1021.503 1 365 0.000 0.383
7 0.921g 0.847 0.847 24.756 0.847 2025.871 1 365 0.000 0.095
a. Predictors: (Constant), Diverse Agro-Ecological, Climatic and Related Factors
b. Predictors: (Constant), Gaps between Demands and Supplies, Genetic resources and Research
c. Predictors: (Constant), Favorable Governmental Policies and Regulations, and Others
d. Predictors: (Constant), Environmental Constraints
e. Predictors: (Constant), Agronomic Constraints
f. Predictors: (Constant), Economic Constraints
g. Predictors: (Constant), Research, Extension Services and Others
h. Dependent Variable: Bread wheat production status based on last production season’s harvest
Source: Author Survey Data (2022)
The above table shows that adjusted R square value for diverse agro-ecological, climatic and
related factors was 0.895 which meant that diverse agro-ecological, climatic and related factors
made the impact of 89.50% on bread wheat production volume in the rural Kebeles of Sinana
and Gasera districts of Bale Zone. So that diverse agro-ecological, climatic and related factors
had statistically significant positive effect on bread wheat production volume in the rural
Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone by 119.10% (B= 1.191, P = 0.000).
Therefore, null hypothesis (H0) is rejected; and alternative hypothesis (Ha) is accepted.
Again, the adjusted R2 value for gaps between demands and supplies, genetic resources and
research factors was -0.001 which meant that gaps between demands and supplies, genetic
resources and research factors made the impact of -0.10% on bread wheat production volume
in the rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone. So that gaps between demands
and supplies, genetic resources and research factors had no statistically significant positive
effect on bread wheat production volume in the rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of
Bale Zone by 1.70% (B= -0.017, P = 0.291). Therefore, null hypothesis (H0) is accepted.
The above table shows that adjusted R2 value for favorable governmental policies and
regulations and other factors was 0.886 which meant that favorable governmental policies and
regulations and other factors had the impact of 88.60% on bread wheat production volume in

58
the rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone. So, favorable governmental
policies and regulations and other factors had statistically significant positive effect on bread
wheat production volume in the rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone by
46.60% (B= 0.466, P = 0.000). Therefore, null hypothesis (H0) is rejected; and alternative
hypothesis (Ha) is accepted.
Similarly, the adjusted R2 value for environmental constraints was 0.768 which meant that
environmental constraints had the impact of 76.80% on bread wheat production volume in the
rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone. However, environmental constraints
had no statistically significant negative effect on bread wheat production volume in the rural
Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone by 8.40% (B= -0.084, P = 0.141).
Therefore, null hypothesis (H0) is accepted.
Moreover, the adjusted R2 value for agronomic constraints was 0.775 which meant that
agronomic constraints had the impact of 77.50% on bread wheat production volume in the rural
Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone. However, agronomic constraints had no
statistically significant positive effect on bread wheat production volume in the rural Kebeles
of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone by 8.80% (B= 0.088, P = 0.122). Therefore, null
hypothesis (H0) is accepted.
Similarly, the adjusted R2 value for economic constraints was 0.736 which meant that economic
constraints had the impact of 73.60% on bread wheat production volume in the rural Kebeles
of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone. So that economic constraints had statistically
significant positive effect on bread wheat production volume in the rural Kebeles of Sinana
and Gasera districts of Bale Zone by 16% (B= 0.160, P = 0.003). Therefore, null hypothesis
(H0) is rejected; and alternative hypothesis (Ha) is accepted.
Moreover, the adjusted R2 value for research, extension services and other constraints was
0.847 which meant that research, extension services and other constraints had the impact of
84.70% on bread wheat production volume in the rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts
of Bale Zone. So that research, extension services and other constraints had statistically
significant positive effect on bread wheat production volume in the rural Kebeles of Sinana
and Gasera districts of Bale Zone by 55.80% (B= 0.558, P = 0.000). Therefore, null hypothesis
(H0) is rejected; and alternative hypothesis (Ha) is accepted.
Furthermore, it illustrates that the explanatory variables have high effect on bread wheat
production volume in the rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone. Diverse
agro-ecological, climatic and related factors and favorable governmental policies and
regulations and other factors positively and significantly contributed towards bread wheat
59
production increment while gaps between demands and supplies, genetic resources and
research factors and environmental constraints negatively contributed towards the bread wheat
production increment in the rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone.
Nevertheless, agronomic constraints, economic constraints and research, extension services
and other constraints failed to constrain bread wheat production volume increment in the
specific study settings based on their beta values obtained in linear regression analysis.
Still, from the ANOVA table presented below for regression analysis, it is possible to infer that
the seven dimensions of the potentials and constraints have statistically significant effect on
bread wheat production volumes in the rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale
Zone (F7,359 = 521.744; p-value = 0.000) (Table 4.15).
Table 4.15: Regression Analysis on effect of factors on BWPV using one-way ANOVA
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression 1334143.211 7 190591.887 521.744 0.000b
Residual 131141.803 359 365.298
Total 1465285.014 366
a. Dependent Variable: Bread wheat production status based on last production season’s harvest
b. Predictors: (Constant), Research, Extension Services and Others, Gaps between Demands and Supplies,
Genetic resources and Research, Economic Constraints, Favorable Governmental Policies and Regulations, and
Others, Environmental Constraints, Diverse Agro-Ecological, Climatic and Related Factors, Agronomic
Constraints
Source: Author Survey Data (2022)
Testing the effect of all potentials’ weighted factors on bread wheat production volume of
the rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone
H01: There is no significant effect of all potentials’ weighted factors on bread wheat production
volume.
Ha1: There is significant association between all potentials’ weighted factors on bread wheat
production volume.
Testing the effect of all constraints’ weighted factors on bread wheat production volume of
the rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone
H02: There is no significant effect of all constraints’ weighted factors on bread wheat production
volume.
Ha2: There is significant effect of all constraints’ weighted factors on bread wheat production
volume.
Table 4.16: Model summary for weighted potentials and constraints
Model Summaryc
2 2
Model R R Adj. R Change Statistics

60
 SE R2Change F Change df1 df2 Sig. F
Estimate Change
1 0.830a 0.688 0.688 35.368 0.688 806.375 1 365 0.000
2 0.902b 0.814 0.813 27.356 0.814 1592.984 1 365 0.000
a. Predictors: (Constant), Average values of all potentials
b. Predictors: (Constant), All constraints weighted effects
c. Dependent Variable: Bread wheat production status based on last production season’s harvest
Source: Author Survey Data (2022)
The adjusted R2 value for all weighted potentials was 0.688 which meant that all weighted
potentials had the impact of 68.80% on bread wheat production volume in the rural Kebeles of
Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone. So that all weighted potentials had statistically
significant positive impact on bread wheat production volume in the rural Kebeles of Sinana
and Gasera districts of Bale Zone by 18.90% (B= 0.189, P = 0.000). Therefore, null hypothesis
(H0) is rejected; so that an alternative hypothesis (H6) is accepted.
The adjusted R2 value for all weighted constraints was 0.813 which meant that all weighted
constraints made the impact of 81.30% on bread wheat production volume in the rural Kebeles
of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone. However, all weighted constraints had statistically
significant negative impact on bread wheat production volume in the rural Kebeles of Sinana
and Gasera districts of Bale Zone by 73.80% (B= -0.738, P = 0.000). Therefore, null hypothesis
(H0) is rejected; so that an alternative hypothesis (H6) is accepted.
Still, from the ANOVA table presented below for regression analysis, it is possible to infer that
all weighted potentials and constraints had statistically significant effect on bread wheat
production volumes in the rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone (F2,367 =
842.328; p-value = 0.000) (Table 4.17).
Table 4.17: Fisher’s exact test on effect of overall factors on BWPV
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression 1204936.814 2 602468.407 842.328 0.000b
Residual 260348.199 364 715.242
Total 1465285.014 366
a. Dependent Variable: Bread wheat production status based on last production season’s harvest
b. Predictors: (Constant), All constraints weighted effects, Average values of all potentials
Source: Author Survey Data (2022)
4.7.2. Regression Analyses
Table 4.18: Coefficients of the seven constructed factors and their constant
Coefficientsa
Model Unstand. Coefs Stand. Coefs t Sig. 95.0% CI for B Collinearity
B SE Beta LB UB Toler. VIF
1 (Constant) -1041.238 106.943 -9.736 0.000 -1251.552 -830.925
DAEC 187.377 20.964 1.191 8.938 0.000 146.150 228.605 0.014 71.252

61
 GDSGR -2.749 2.599 -0.017 -1.058 0.291 -7.860 2.363 0.989 1.011
GPRO 93.444 24.359 0.466 3.836 0.000 45.540 141.348 0.017 59.211
ENVTCON -7.026 4.768 -0.084 -1.474 0.141 -16.403 2.350 0.078 12.899
AGROCON 11.485 7.417 0.088 1.549 0.122 -3.101 26.070 0.078 12.853
ECONCON 24.876 8.373 0.160 2.971 0.003 8.410 41.341 0.086 11.626
REXSERO 95.276 20.006 0.558 4.762 0.000 55.933 134.620 0.018 55.089
a. Dependent Variable: BWP (Green Procurement Practices)
Source: Author Survey Data (2022)
BWP Y    1041.238  187.377  DAEC   93.444  GPRO   11.485  AGROCON   95.276  REXSERO   24.876  ECONCON 
 2.749  GDSGR  - 7.026  ENVIRCON 

Based on the above model, DAEC, GPRO, AGROCON, ECONCON and REXSERO
contributed positively towards bread wheat production volumes in the rural Kebeles of Sinana
and Gasera districts of Bale Zone while GDSGR, and ENVIRCON contributed negatively
towards bread wheat production volumes in the rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of
Bale Zone (Table 4.18).
Table 4.19: Coefficients of weighted effects of potential and constraint factors
Coefficientsa
Model Unstand. Coefs Stand. t Sig. 95.0% CI for B Collin. Statistics
B SE Coefs
Beta LB UB Toler. VIF
1 (Constant) 266.550 45.447 5.865 0.00 177.17 355.921
All potentials 42.879 10.134 0.189 4.231 0.000 9
22.950 62.808 0.246 4.069
All constraints -94.917 5.730 -0.738 - 0
0.00 - -83.648 0.246 4.069
a. Dependent Variable: Bread wheat production status based on last production season’s harvest
16.564 0 106.185
Source: Author Survey Data (2022)
The constant value is 266.550 for overall factors and the coefficient for all weighted potential
factor was 42.879 and for all weighted constraint factor was -94.917. Accordingly, the model
fits. Thus, Y= a + bx + cx
BWP Y   266.550  42.879  All Potentials   94.917  All Constra int s 

Where, Y = Bread wheat production volume (BWPV), all potentials, and all constraints’
weighted values
As per the above table, it represents the 0.189 standardized coefficient value for all potentials
and the -0.738 standardized coefficient value for all constraints; it means that when overall
potentials increased by 1, potential factors make 0.189 impact on bread wheat production
volume while when all constraints increase by 1, constraint factors make -0.738 impact on
bread wheat production volume in the rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale
Zone.

62
4.7.3. Test of Assumptions and Model Fitness
All predictor variables were quantitative and the outcome variable must be quantitative,
continuous and unbounded; the predictors had non-zero variation in value (i.e. they do not have
variances of 0); there was no perfect multicollinearity as there was no strong correlation
between two or more predictors in a regression model; the predictors were not correlated with
‘external variables’; homoscedasticity assumption was met as at each level of the predictor
variable(s), the variance of the residual terms were constant; the residuals were independent;
the residuals in the model were random or normally distributed variables with a mean of 0; all
of the values of the outcome variable were independent (in other words, each value of the
outcome variable comes from a separate entity); and the mean values of the outcome variable
for each increment of the predictor(s) lie along a straight line (Figures 4.4 to 4.5).
Again to determine the accuracy of a model across different samples which are known as cross-
validation was assessed. The results of the assessment revealed that the model can be
generalized as it was capable of accurately predicting the same outcome variable from the same
set of predictors using Stein’s formula which is shown below (Stevens, 2002):
 n  1  n  2  n  1  
adjusted R 2  1 -    1 - R 
2
 
 n  k  1  n  k  2  n  
Where,
R2 = is the unadjusted value,
n = is the number of participants, and k = is the number of predictors in the model

63
64
Figure 4.4: Justifications for attainment of assumptions and model fitness
Source: Author Survey Data (2022)

65
Figure 4.5: Justifications for attainment of assumptions and model fitness
Source: Author Survey Data (2022)

66
 5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1. Conclusions
The findings of the study revealed that the diverse agro-ecological, climatic and related factors,
gaps between demands and supplies, genetic resources and research and favorable
governmental policies and regulations, and others were the candidate potentials and/or
opportunities while the agronomic constraints, economic constraints, research, extension
services and others and the overall constraints were the possible challenges of bread wheat
production in the selected rural Kebeles of the two districts of Bale Zone.

Dimensionalized potentials and constraints had statistically significant correlation with the
bread wheat production volumes. All four dimensions of the challenges and overall pooled
constraints had statistically significant negative correlations with the bread wheat production

volumes while diverse agro-ecological, climatic and related factors, favorable governmental

policies and regulations and other related factors, and all potentials had statistically significant
positive correlations with the bread wheat production volumes.

Explanatory variables have high effect on bread wheat production volume in the rural Kebeles
of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone. Diverse agro-ecological, climatic and related
factors and favorable governmental policies and regulations and other factors positively and
significantly contributed towards bread wheat production increment while gaps between
demands and supplies, genetic resources and research factors and environmental constraints
negatively contributed towards the bread wheat production increment in the rural Kebeles of
Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone. Nevertheless, agronomic constraints, economic
constraints and research, extension services and other constraints failed to constrain bread
wheat production volume increment in the specific study settings based on their beta values
obtained in linear regression analysis.

Based on the multiple regression model, diverse agro-ecological, climatic and related factors,
genetic resources and research, agronomic constraints, economic constraints, research, and
extension services and other constraints had contributed positively towards bread wheat
production volumes in Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale Zone while gaps between demands
and supplies, and environmental constraints contributed negatively towards bread wheat
production volumes in the two districts.

67
As per the above table, it represents the 0.189 standardized coefficient value for all potentials
and the -0.738 standardized coefficient value for all constraints; it means that when overall
potentials increased by 1, potential factors make 0.189 impact on bread wheat production
volume while when all constraints increase by 1, constraint factors make -0.738 impact on
bread wheat production volume in the rural Kebeles of Sinana and Gasera districts of Bale
Zone.

5.2. Recommendations
Based on the major findings of the study, the following recommendations are suggested or
drawn. These are:

1. It seems appropriate and necessary if appropriate and relevant interventional strategies

developed that could alter the adverse impacts of environmental and genetic resources
on bread wheat production and productivity by concerned bodies,

2. It seems appropriate and necessary if appropriate and relevant interventional strategies

developed that could maximally exploit the effects of opportunities in order to increase
bread wheat production and productivity by concerned bodies, and

3. Finally, investigating the effects of other affecting factors that are not addressed in the
present study are assumed and thought to add further insights into the thematic issues
of the study.

68
 6. REFERENCES
AACCSAA (2017). Value chain study on wheat industry in Ethiopia. Afro universal consult
and general trading P. L.C, Final report.
Abate, D. (2018). Review on market chain analysis of wheat in Ethiopia. The International
Journal of Business Management and Technology, 2(6), 94-105.
Abayneh Esayas and Ashenafi Ali (2006). Soils of Sinana Agricultural Research Center.
Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, National Soil Research Center (NSRC):
Soil Survey and Land Evaluation Section. With the Technical Assistance of Gebeyehu
Belay and Tibebu Chekol.
Adugnaw Anteneh, and Dagninet Asrat, (2020). Wheat production and marketing in Ethiopia:
Review study. Cogent Food & Agriculture, 6:1-14.
AGRA (2018). Africa agriculture status report: Catalyzing government capacity to drive
agricultural transformation (Issue 6). Anne Marie Nyamu, Editorial, Publishing and
Training Consultant.
Ahmed, E., Sulaiman, J., and Mohd, S. (2011). Wheat production and economics. American
Journal of Agricultural and Biological Sciences, 6(3):332-338.
Punch, K. F. (1998). Introduction to Social Research: Quantitative and Qualitative
Approaches. London, UK: Sage.
Atkinson, P., & Hammersley, M. (1994). Ethnography and participant observation. In N. K.
Denzin & Y. S. Lincoln (Eds.), Handbook of qualitative research (pp. 248–261).
Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
Amentae, T. K., Hamo, T. K., Gebresenbet, G., & Ljungberg, D. (2017). Exploring wheat value
chain focusing on market performance, post-harvest loss, and supply chain
management in Ethiopia: The case of Arsi to Finfinnee market chain. Journal of
Agricultural Science, 9(8), 22. https://doi.org/10.5539/jas.v9n8p22.
Anbessie Debebe (2021). Review study on current bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)
production status and key challenges for potential efficiency of wheat markets in
Ethiopia. Journal of Ecology and Natural Resources, 5(2):1-22; DOI: 10.23880/jenr-
16000233.
Aparasu, R. R. and Bentley, J. P. (2020). Principles of Research Design and Drug Literature
Evaluation, 2nd Edition. McGraw-Hill Education; New York: USA. ISBN: 978-1-26-
044179-6. PP.23-26.

69
Asadallah, N. (2014). Wheat production price performance prediction in the Iranian north
province. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 9(1), 74–79.
Assefa, D. (2016). Enhancing wheat productivity, end-use quality and value chain through
community action research in northern Ethiopia. Annual report.
Bachewe, F. N., Berhane, G., Minten, B., Taffesse, A. S., & Berhane, G. (2018). Agricultural
transformation in Africa, assessing the evidence in Ethiopia. World Development.
Elsevier, 105, 286–298. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.05.041
Bayeh, B. (2010). Assessment of bread wheat production, marketing and selection of N-
efficient bread wheat (Tritium aestivum L.) varieties for higher grain yield and quality
in North Western Ethiopia [MSc Thesis]. Bahir Dar University.
Bekabil, U. T. (2014). Review of challenges and prospects of agricultural production and
productivity in Ethiopia. Journal of Natural Sciences Research, 4(18), 70–78.
Bekele Hundie Kotu, Paulos Asrat and Aseffa Seyoum (2004). Barley-based Farming System
in Gassera Area of Bale Highlands. In Tesfaye Zegeye, Legesse Dadi and Dawst Alemu
(Eds.); Agricultural Systems Analysis and Constraints Identification, EARO, 2004.
Proceedings of the workshop held to discuss the socio-economic research results of
1998-2002, August 6-8, 2002, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Bekele, M., & Shiberu, T. (2014). Adoption of improved bread wheat varieties on smallscale
farmers: The case of Boji Gebisa Ambo District, Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia.
American Journal of Food Science and Technology, 2(3), 103–108.
https://doi.org/10.12691/ajfst-2-3-5
Bergh, K., Chew, A., Gugerty, M. K., & Anderson, C. L. (2012). Wheat value chain: Ethiopia
(Evince School Policy Analysis and Research, EPAR Brief number 104). Univerity of
Washington.
Bhalla, P. L. and Smith, N. (2006) Agrobacterium tumefaciens mediated transformation of
cauliflower, Brassicaoleracea var. botrytis. Mol Breed, 4: 531-541.
Brasesco, F., Asgedom, D., Sommacal, V. and Casari, G. (2019). Strategic analysis and
intervention plan for wheat and wheat products in the Agro-Commodities Procurement
Zone of the pilot Integrated Agro-Industrial Park in Central-Eastern Oromia, Ethiopia.
Addis Ababa. FAO. 104 pp. Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO.
Brush, S. B. (Editor) (2000). GENES in the FIELD: On-Farm Conservation of Crop Diversity.
International Plant Genetic Resources Institute, International Development Research
Center and Lewis Co-Publishers. PP.26.

70
Chernet Worku, and Mamaru Abebe (2020). Review on production and marketing of wheat in
Ethiopia. International Journal of Agricultural Economics. Special Issue: Agribusiness
and Value Chain Management. 5(4):133-141. doi: 10.11648/j.ijae.20200504.16
CSA (2012). Agricultural sample survey report on area and production of major crops (Private
peasant holdings, Meher season 2011/2012 (2005 E.C.)). The FDRE statistical bulletin,
Volume VII.
CSA (2013). Agricultural sample survey report on area and production of major crops (Private
peasant holdings, Meher season 2012/2013 (2005 E.C.)). The FDRE statistical bulletin,
Volume 1.
CSA (2014). Agricultural sample survey report on area and production of major crops.
Statistical Bulletin Volume VI.
CSA (2015). Agricultural sample survey report on area and production of major crops (Private
peasant holdings, Meher season 2014/2015 (2007 E.C.)). The FDRE statistical bulletin
Voume I.
CSA (2016). Agricultural sample survey report on area and production of major crops (Private
peasant holdings, Belg season 2015/2016 (2008 E.C.)). The FDRE statistical bulletin,
Volume V.
CSA (2017). Agricultural sample survey report on area and production of major crops (Private
peasant holdings, Meher season 2016/2017 (2009 E.C.)). The FDRE statistical bulletin,
Volume I.
CSA (2018). Agricultural sample survey report on area and production of major crops (Private
peasant holdings, Meher season 2017/2018 (2010 E.C.)). The FDRE statistical bulletin,
Volume I.
CSA (2019). Agricultural sample survey report on area and production of major crops (Private
peasant holdings, Meher season 2017/2018 (2010 E.C.)). The FDRE statistical bulletin,
Volume I.
CSA (Central Statistical Agency) (2014a). Agricultural Sample Survey 2013/14. Volume I:
Report on Area and Production of Major Crops.
CSA (Central Statistical Authority), Agricultural Sample Survey 2016/17 (2009 E.C). Report
on Area and Production of Major Cereals (Private Peasant Holdings, Meher Season),
CSA, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2017.
Daniel, W. W. and Cross, C. L. (2013). Biostatistics: A Foundation for Analysis in the Health
Sciences, 10th Ed. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Printed in the United States of America.
ISBN 978-1-118-30279-8 (cloth).
71
Degye Goshu, Tigabu Degu and Fatunbi Oluwole (2019). Innovation opportunities for wheat
and faba bean value chains in Ethiopia. FARA Research Report, l4(5): P73.
Demeke, M., & Marcantonio, D. (2013). Analysis of incentives and disincentives for wheat in
Ethiopia. Technical notes series. MAFAP, FAO.
Dessale, M. (2019). Analysis of technical efficiency of small holder wheat-growing farmers of
Jamma district, Ethiopia. Agriculture & Food Security, 8(1), 1.
Devereux, S. Food insecurity in Ethiopia: a discussion paper for DFID. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
2000. https ://www.resea rchga te.net/publi cation/50200 941 Accessed Mar 2019.
Di Falco S, Chavas J-P, Smale M. Farmer management of production risk on degraded lands:
the role of wheat variety diversity in the Tigray Region, Ethiopia. Agric Econ.
2007;36(2):147–56. https ://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2007.00194 .x.
Duguma, B., Tegegne, A., & Hegde, B. P. (2012). Smallholder livestock production system in
Dandi district, Oromia Regional State, central Ethiopia. Global Veterinaria, 8(5), 471–
479.
Ejersa, G. G. (2011). Contributions of vegetable production to the household food security:
The case of Kebeles surrounding Holeta Town [MSc Thesis]. Adiss Ababa University.
Falola, A., Achem, B. A., Oloyede, W. O., & Olawuyi, G. O. (2017). Determinants of
commercial production of wheat in Nigeria: A case study of Bakura local government
area, Zamfara state. Trakia Journal of Sciences, 15(4), 397–404.
FAO (2014). Analysis of price incentives for wheat in Ethiopia for the time period 2005-2012.
FAO/the Monitoring and Analyzing Food and Agricultural Policies (MAFAP)
program. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy.
FAO (2014). Analysis of price incentives for wheat in Ethiopia. Technical notes series,
MAFAP, by Wakeyo M.B., Lanos B.
FAO (2017). The state of food and agriculture, leveraging food systems for inclusive rural
transformation. Food and agricultural organization of united nations.
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) (2015a). Food Balance Sheets. FAOSTAT Rome.
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) (2015b). Agricultural Production Statistics.
FAOSTAT. Rome.
Faris Hailu (2011). Genetic Diversity and Grain Protein Composition of Tetraploid Wheat
(Triticum durum Desf.) Germplasm from Ethiopia. Doctoral dissertation paper
submitted to the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.
Field, A. (2009). Discovering Statistics Using SPSS. SAGE Publications Ltd, 2009. PP.857.
GAIN (2014). Ethiopia grain and food manual report. Ethiopia Grain Trade Enterprise.
72
Gebreselassie, S., Haile, M. G., & Kalkuhl, M. (2017). The wheat sector in Ethiopia: Current
status and key challenges for future value chain development (ZEF Working Paper
Series 160, Center for Development Research). University of Bonn.
Gebreselassie, S., Mekbib, G. H. and Matthias, K. (2017). The Wheat sector in Ethiopia:
Current status and key challenges for future value chain development.
Gemeda, D. I. (2016). Review of value chain analysis of wheat and barley in Ethiopia. Journal
of Harmonized Research in Applied Science, 4(3), 135–144.
Goshu, D., Getahun, T. D., & Oluwole, F. (2019). Innovation opportunities for wheat and faba
bean value chains in Ethiopia. FARA Research Report. Vol. 4(5).
Hei, N., Shimelis, H. A., & Laing, M. (2017). Appraisal of farmers wheat production
constraints and breeding priorities in rust prone agro-ecologies of Ethiopia. African
Journal of Agricultural Research, 12(12), 944–952.
https://doi.org/10.5897/AJAR2016.11518
Kiss, I. (2011). Significance of wheat production in world economy and position of hungary in
it. Abstract: Applied studies in agribusiness and commerce [Thesis]. University of
Debrecen.
Mahamud, S. U. (2016). Analysis of wheat value chain: The case of Sinana district, Bale Zone,
Oromia region [MSc Thesis]. Haramaya University.
Mamo, T., Solomon, T., Getahun, W., Tesfaye, A., Chebil, A., Aw-Hassan, A., Debele, T., &
Assefa, S. (2016). Analysis of wheat commercialization in Ethiopia: The case of
SARD-SC wheat project innovation platform sites. African Journal of Agricultural
Research, 12(10), 841–849. doi: 10.5897/AJAR2016.11889
Matouš, P., Todo, Y., & Mojo, D. (2013). Roles of extension and ethno-religious networks in
acceptance of resource-conserving agriculture among Ethiopian farmers. International
Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, 11(4), 301–316.
https://doi.org/10.1080/14735903.2012.751701
Mengistu, D. K., Kidane, Y. G., Fadda, C. and Pè, M. E. (2016). Genetic diversity in Ethiopian
Durum Wheat (Triticum turgidum var durum) inferred from phenotypic variations.
Plant Genetic Resources; 1–11. doi:10.1017/S1479262116000393.
Meseret Asmamaw (2016). Genetic diversity and selection efficiency of Ethiopian Durum
Wheat (Triticum durum Desf.) landrace collections. Master thesis submitted to the
school of Cellular, Microbial and Molecular Biology, AAU; Addis Ababa: Ethiopia.
Minot, N., & Sawye, B. (2012). Agricultural production in Ethiopia: Results of the 2012 ATA
baseline survey. International Food Policy Research Institute.
73
Minot, N., Warner, J., Lemma, S., et al. (2015). The Wheat Supply Chain in Ethiopia: Patterns,
Trends, and Policy Options. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Washington, DC, PP: 66.
Minot, N., Warner, J., Lemma, S., Kasa, L., Gashaw, A., & Rashid, S. (2015). The wheat supply
chain in Ethiopia: Patterns, trends, and policy options. International Food Policy
Research Institute (IFPRI).
MoANR (2016). Crop variety register, Issue No. 19, Plant Variety Release, Protection and Seed
Quality Control Directorate, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Mudasser, M., Hussain, I., and Aslam, M. (2001). Constraints to land-and water productivity
of wheat in India and Pakistan: A comparative analysis. International Water
Management Institute (IWMI).
NBE. (2018). National bank of Ethiopia 2017/2018 annual report. National bank of Ethiopia.
Negassa, A., Shiferaw, B., Koo, J., Sonder, K., Smale, M., Braun, H. J., Gbegbelegbe, S., Zhe
Guo, D. H., Wood, S., Payne, T., & Abeyo, B. (2013). The potential for wheat
production in Africa: Analysis of biophysical suitability and economic profitability.
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT).
Negisho, K., Shibru, S., Pillen, K., Ordon, F. and Wehner, G. (2021). Genetic diversity of
Ethiopian durum wheat landraces. PLoS ONE 16(2): e0247016.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pone.0247016.
Netsanet Hei, Hussein Ali Shimelis, and Mark Laing (2017). Appraisal of farmers’ wheat
production constraints and breeding priorities in rust prone agro-ecologies of Ethiopia.
African Journal of Agricultural Research, 12(12):944-952. DOI:
10.5897/AJAR2016.11518.
Nigussie, A., Kedir, A., Adisu, A., Belay, G., Gebrie, D., & Desalegn, K. (2015). Bread wheat
production in small scale irrigation users agro-pastoral households in Ethiopia: Case of
Afar and Oromia regional state. Journal of Development and Agricultural Economics,
7(4), 123–130. https://doi.org/10.5897/JDAE2014.0589
Pagano, R. R. Understanding Statistics in the Behavioral Sciences. Wadsworth, Cengage
Learning, 2009.
Rashid, S. (2010). Variation in staple food prices: Causes, consequence, and policy options.,
African Agricultural Marketing Project (AAMP).
Rashid, S. and Lemma, S. (2014). Public wheat imports since 2008: The rationales and cost-
effectiveness. Research for Ethiopia’s Agriculture Policy (REAP), International Food
Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC.
74
Salkind, N. J. (Editor) (2010). Encyclopedia of Research Design, Vol. 1. SAGE Publications,
Inc., ISBN 978-1-4129-6127-1. Thousand Oaks, California: USA. PP.1644.
Sapna, G., Sonia, G., Meenal, R., et al. (2015). Agricultural research, effect of allelic variation
in Triticin on Bread- and Chapati-Making Qualities of Wheat (Triticum aestivum), 4(2):
139-151.
Schneider, K. and Anderson, L. (October 12, 2010). Yield Gap and Productivity Potential in
Ethiopian Agriculture: Staple Grains & Pulses. Evans School Policy Analysis and
Research (EPAR), Prepared for the Farmer Productivity Team of the Bill & Melinda
Gates Foundation. EPAR Brief No. 98.
Tadesse, W., Bishawand, Z., & Assefa, S. (2018). Wheat production and breeding in Sub-
Saharan Africa challenges and opportunities in the face of climate change. International
Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, 11(5),696–715.
https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-02-2018-0015
Taffesse, A. S., Dorosh, P., & Asrat, S. (2012). Crop production in Ethiopia: Regional patterns
and trends. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
Taffesse, A. S., Dorosh, P., & Asrat, S. (2013). Crop production in Ethiopia: Regional patterns
and trends. International Food Policy Research Institute, Ethiopia Strategy Support
Program II.
The Lutheran World Federation (2016). Gasera Sustainable Livelihood and Women
Empowerment Project. Lutheran World Federation-Ethiopia Visitor’s Brief (Bale
Regional Coordination Office). LWF/DWS HQ, Geneva and LWF Ethiopia.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) (2021). Grain and Feed Annual Report for
Ethiopia. Report Number ET2021-0008; Global Agricultural Information Network
(GAIN).
USDA (United States Department of Agriculture), World Agricultural Production. Foreign
Agricultural Service/office of Global Analysis, USDA, Washington, DC, USA, 2019.
Waddington, S. R., Li, X., Dixon, J., Hyman, G., & Vicente, M. C. (2009). Highland temperate
mixed: Wheat [Background Paper].
Willy, B. T. (2018). Constraints and opportunities of maize, teff and wheat production: The
case of Ambo and Toke Kuttaye Districts, West Showa Zone, Oromia Regional State,
Ethiopia.. American Journal of Agricultural Research, 9(7), 1–17.
World Bank (2018). Cereal market performance in Ethiopia: Policy implications for improving
investments in maize and wheat value chains (English). The World Bank.

75
Yifru Teklu and Hammer, K. (2006). Farmers’ perception and genetic erosion of tetraploid
wheat landraces in Ethiopia. Genetic Resources and Crop Evolution, 53: 1099–1113.
DOI 10.1007/s10722-005-1145-8.
Yokamo, S., Oyka, E., Tsala, T., & Wotro, W. (2018). Identification and prioritization of major
agricultural production and productivity constraints in the case of Basketo special
district of Southern Ethiopia. Open Access Journal, 15(3), 1–7. doi: 10.4172/2329-
8863.1000353.

76
 7. APPENDIX
7.1. Appendix I: Item wise t-test statistics to categorize as potential or challenge
Test Value = 3.00 Decisions
Sig. (2- 95% CI of the
Items of potentials and constraints N Mean SD SEM
t df tailed) MD Difference

LB UB
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by the
presence of favorable climatic conditions 367 3.07 1.261 .066 1.076 366 .283 .071 -.06 .20 Accept H0

In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by the

presence of perennial rivers for irrigation 367 1.91 1.132 .059 -18.395 366 .000 -1.087 -1.20 -.97 Reject H0

In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by the

presence of diverse agro-ecological zones 367 2.80 1.384 .072 -2.791 366 .006 -.202 -.34 -.06 Reject H0

In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by the

presence of favorable and conducive temperature 367 3.95 1.028 .054 17.714 366 .000 .951 .85 1.06 Reject H0

In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by the

presence of adequate rainfall 367 3.65 1.177 .061 10.596 366 .000 .651 .53 .77 Reject H0

In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by the

presence of fertile and suitable soil types 367 3.70 1.139 .059 11.826 366 .000 .703 .59 .82 Reject H0

In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by the

367 3.75 1.161 .061 12.369 366 .000 .749 .63 .87 Reject H0
possibility of twice production per annum due to bi-modal rainfall
Diverse Agro-Ecological, Climatic and Related Factors 367 3.2626 .40226 .02100 12.505 366 .000 .26259 .2213 .3039 Reject H0
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by increased
367 3.67 1.158 .060 11.134 366 .000 .673 .55 .79 Reject H0
wheat consumption
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by presence
of huge gaps between demands and supply of wheat 367 3.74 1.092 .057 13.003 366 .000 .741 .63 .85 Reject H0

In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by rapid

population growth in combination with expansion of towns and changes in 367 3.47 1.159 .060 7.838 366 .000 .474 .36 .59 Reject H0
easy and fast food preference of the people
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by strong
interest of national and international research organizations for crop 367 2.07 1.039 .054 -17.084 366 .000 -.926 -1.03 -.82 Reject H0
improvement
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced bypoor
infrastructure and separation of agricultural education from research and 367 2.97 .949 .050 -.550 366 .583 -.027 -.12 .07 Accept H0
extension
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by presence
diversified genetic resources and varieties of wheat 367 2.79 .877 .046 -4.643 366 .000 -.213 -.30 -.12 Reject H0

In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by people’s

367 3.07 .922 .048 1.529 366 .127 .074 -.02 .17 Accept H0
readiness to accept and adopt new technologies and improved varieties

77
Gaps between Demands and Supplies, Genetic resources and Research 367 3.1137 .38646 .02017 5.635 366 .000 .11368 .0740 .1533 Reject H0
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by
government’s suitable agricultural policies designed to support farmers at the 367 3.28 .875 .046 6.201 366 .000 .283 .19 .37 Reject H0
grassroots level
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by presence
of NGOs working on wheat development projects 367 2.78 .929 .049 -4.438 366 .000 -.215 -.31 -.12 Reject H0

In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by

deployment of trained and skilled agricultural extension workers 367 3.14 .931 .049 2.804 366 .005 .136 .04 .23 Reject H0

In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by high level

367 1.89 1.077 .056 -19.777 366 .000 -1.112 -1.22 -1.00 Reject H0
of urbanization
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by increased
domestic demand for industrial wheat products due to urbanization and 367 4.28 .790 .041 31.114 366 .000 1.283 1.20 1.36 Reject H0
lifestyle change
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by availability
of human resource and knowledge for the improvement and development of 367 2.81 .949 .050 -3.742 366 .000 -.185 -.28 -.09 Reject H0
the crop
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by the built-
up of asphalt road and provision of infrastructure facilities in and around the 367 2.00 1.106 .058 -17.315 366 .000 -1.000 -1.11 -.89 Reject H0
towns
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by the
importance of the crop in food self-sufficiency as a strategic crop at regional 366 4.32 .796 .042 31.654 365 .000 1.317 1.24 1.40 Reject H0
and national levels
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is promoted or enhanced by the
367 4.21 .936 .049 24.754 366 .000 1.210 1.11 1.31 Reject H0
diverse use value of the crop
Favorable Governmental Policies and Regulations, and Others 367 3.19 .316 .016 11.525 366 .000 .190 .16 .22 Reject H0
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by inadequate drainage
367 2.25 1.196 .062 -12.085 366 .000 -.755 -.88 -.63 Reject H0
systems
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by overdrawn and polluted
367 2.31 1.017 .053 -13.043 366 .000 -.692 -.80 -.59 Reject H0
water supplies
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by devastating effect of
salinity and water logging 367 1.97 1.144 .060 -17.254 366 .000 -1.030 -1.15 -.91 Reject H0

In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by erratic and shortage of

367 1.90 1.064 .056 -19.876 366 .000 -1.104 -1.21 -.99 Reject H0
rainfall
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by recurring droughts 367 4.21 1.003 .052 23.053 366 .000 1.207 1.10 1.31 Reject H0
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by climatic changes (cc) 367 1.97 .929 .048 -21.188 366 .000 -1.027 -1.12 -.93 Reject H0
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by occurrences of flooding 367 4.04 1.019 .053 19.560 366 .000 1.041 .94 1.15 Reject H0
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by unreliable weather
367 3.89 1.028 .054 16.561 366 .000 .888 .78 .99 Reject H0
conditions
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by land degradation 367 2.17 1.066 .056 -14.942 366 .000 -.831 -.94 -.72 Reject H0
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by low and declining soil
367 1.82 .911 .048 -24.764 366 .000 -1.177 -1.27 -1.08 Reject H0
fertility
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by deforestation and
367 2.02 1.051 .055 -17.938 366 .000 -.984 -1.09 -.88 Reject H0
desertification

78
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by owning small size of
367 3.60 1.232 .064 9.405 366 .000 .605 .48 .73 Reject H0
land
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by soil erosion and
367 2.19 1.182 .062 -13.073 366 .000 -.807 -.93 -.69 Reject H0
depletion of soil nutrients
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by high soil acidity 367 3.79 1.073 .056 14.059 366 .000 .787 .68 .90 Reject H0
Environmental Constraints 367 2.7235 .75255 .03928 -7.039 366 .000 -.27651 -.3538 -.1993 Reject H0
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by the practicing of
delayed land preparation and leveling 367 2.20 1.142 .060 -13.396 366 .000 -.798 -.92 -.68 Reject H0

In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by high prevalence and

367 1.96 1.019 .053 -19.560 366 .000 -1.041 -1.15 -.94 Reject H0
high weed growth
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by improper land leveling
combined with delay in sowing than recommended dates 367 2.00 1.016 .053 -18.851 366 .000 -1.000 -1.10 -.90 Reject H0

In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by severe competition for

scarce farm lands 367 2.85 1.112 .058 -2.581 366 .010 -.150 -.26 -.04 Reject H0

In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by significant seed quality

367 2.65 1.048 .055 -6.475 366 .000 -.354 -.46 -.25 Reject H0
variability exists
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by problems of availability
367 2.77 1.087 .057 -4.032 366 .000 -.229 -.34 -.12 Reject H0
and timely delivery of improved seed and insufficient quantity of delivery
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by limited use of
367 1.95 .974 .051 -20.750 366 .000 -1.054 -1.15 -.95 Reject H0
purchased farm inputs
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by poor access to
367 2.16 1.155 .060 -13.876 366 .000 -.837 -.96 -.72 Reject H0
improved germplasm
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by high prices or costs of
inputs 367 2.04 1.070 .056 -17.118 366 .000 -.956 -1.07 -.85 Reject H0

In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by diminishing genetic

367 3.08 1.082 .056 1.496 366 .136 .084 -.03 .20 Accept H0
resources of wheat
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by prevalence of pests and
367 2.19 1.098 .057 -14.072 366 .000 -.807 -.92 -.69 Reject H0
diseases
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by high prevalence of
diseases (stem rust, leaf rust and stripe rust), environmental factors 367 1.94 1.031 .054 -19.704 366 .000 -1.060 -1.17 -.95 Reject H0
(difference in agroecology) and pests (aphids, armyworms and birds)
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by inadequacy, inequity,
and unreliability in water distribution are jointly affecting the farmers’ 367 4.03 1.059 .055 18.627 366 .000 1.030 .92 1.14 Reject H0
irrigation schedules for the wheat crop
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by inefficient use of
367 2.78 1.417 .074 -2.983 366 .003 -.221 -.37 -.08 Reject H0
available but scarce resources
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by prevailing mono
cropping and decreased crop rotation practices 367 2.70 1.127 .059 -5.094 366 .000 -.300 -.42 -.18 Reject H0

In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by less awareness of

farmers about improved crop management practices 367 2.12 1.077 .056 -15.652 366 .000 -.880 -.99 -.77 Reject H0

In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by application of low level

of irrigation facilities 367 4.07 .977 .051 20.946 366 .000 1.068 .97 1.17 Reject H0

In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by seasonality of wheat

production systems 367 2.28 1.237 .065 -11.187 366 .000 -.722 -.85 -.60 Reject H0

79
Agronomic Constraints 367 2.5429 .48291 .02521 -18.134 366 .000 -.45711 -.5067 -.4075 Reject H0
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by higher fertilizer price
and delayed delivery 367 2.10 1.161 .061 -14.838 366 .000 -.899 -1.02 -.78 Reject H0

In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by inadequate capital 367 2.06 .975 .051 -18.528 366 .000 -.943 -1.04 -.84 Reject H0
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by lack of credit access 367 2.02 1.000 .052 -18.744 366 .000 -.978 -1.08 -.88 Reject H0
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by low market prices of
wheat at harvest time 367 1.98 .930 .049 -21.097 366 .000 -1.025 -1.12 -.93 Reject H0

In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by limited availability of

rusts resistant varieties 367 2.30 .954 .050 -14.064 366 .000 -.700 -.80 -.60 Reject H0

In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by unavailability and high

cost of improved seeds 367 2.19 .844 .044 -18.371 366 .000 -.809 -.90 -.72 Reject H0

In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by labor shortage

367 2.32 .920 .048 -14.122 366 .000 -.678 -.77 -.58 Reject H0

In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by peasants little interest

for agricultural credit usage 367 3.71 .889 .046 15.392 366 .000 .714 .62 .81 Reject H0

Economic Constraints 367 2.3374 .40685 .02124 -31.202 366 .000 -.66264 -.7044 -.6209 Reject H0
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by institutional and policy
367 3.27 .927 .048 5.577 366 .000 .270 .17 .36 Reject H0
related unfavorable factors
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by low output prices and
367 2.22 .880 .046 -16.974 366 .000 -.779 -.87 -.69 Reject H0
uncertainties associated with policies
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by usage of wheat for the
367 2.02 1.126 .059 -16.738 366 .000 -.984 -1.10 -.87 Reject H0
production of starch and gluten
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by less demand for locally
367 1.91 .998 .052 -20.965 366 .000 -1.093 -1.20 -.99 Reject H0
produced wheat among processors
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by absence of highly
educated staff for disseminating the information right up to the base level as 367 2.31 1.160 .061 -11.433 366 .000 -.692 -.81 -.57 Reject H0
the role of extension services
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by the available research
367 3.33 1.167 .061 5.366 366 .000 .327 .21 .45 Reject H0
institutions have not that much capacity to multiply wheat seed
In my Kebele, bread wheat production is enhanced by lack of basic
367 2.31 1.079 .056 -12.287 366 .000 -.692 -.80 -.58 Reject H0
infrastructures which can be a bridge between rural and urban areas
Research, Extension Services and Others 367 2.4796 .37064 .01935 -26.897 366 .000 -.52038 -.5584 -.4823 Reject H0
All constraints weighted effects 367 2.5202 .49211 .02569 -18.678 366 .000 -.47981 -.5303 -.4293 Reject H0

80
81