Gold N Grains: Hunting Large

Swing Trades in Trending Markets

Timothy Morge, CTA and President

Blackthorne Capital, Inc.

Internet Presentation Sponsored by Interactive Brokers June 13, 2013

www.marketgeometry.com www.medianline.com
FOREX and Futures Risk Disclaimer
Trading in the off exchange retail foreign currency market or futures markets is one of
the riskiest forms of investments available in the financial markets and suitable for
sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a
substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot
afford to lose. Nothing in this presentation is a recommendation to buy or sell
currencies or futures and Timothy Morge is not liable for any loss or damage, including
without limitation, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of
Timothy Morge’s tools or reliance on such information.
Results
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This is one persons experience, your experience may differ.
Results are not guaranteed, individual experiences may vary.
Market Volatility
In volatile market conditions, substantial losses may occur.
In volatile market conditions, orders may not be filled as placed.
Leverage
The leveraged nature of FX trading and Futures trading means that any market
movement will have an equally proportional effect on your deposited funds. This may
work against you as well as for you. The possibility exists that you could sustain a total
loss of initial margin funds and be required to deposit additional funds to maintain your
position. If you fail to meet any margin call within the time prescribed, your position will
be liquidated and you will be responsible for any resulting losses.
This seminar is dedicated to Amos Hostetter:
There’s only me left to give back, Amos!
This is a presentation in the style I use when lecturing at MIT
and Stanford. Please be patient while the material unfolds. At
University, this might be a three or four hour lecture.

Please keep your comments related to this material and my

methodology. Most of you are here to view the Seminar.

Please hold your questions until the presentation is over.

Campaign Trading Comex Gold Futures: Amos’s Style
Given the extremely long consolidation of Price after the high reached during the
Hunt Brothers Rally, I expect Price will likely double that Extreme Price after
finding Balance; I expect Gold will reach $1700 or higher once it turns higher and
breaks out of the consolidation. My minimum target for this campaign is $1700.
Do you believe in your work? When do you trust your lines?
Do you believe in your work? When do you trust your lines?
 Let’s see how well Gold does now that it
has reached my Post Hunt Brothers Rally Target
A Quick Look at Soy Beans – And Perhaps Some Homework?
 Yarrr! There be Whales in these waters!

Thank You for taking the time to attend this session. Questions?

“Master your tools, master yourself.”

®Timothy Morge

www.marketgeometry.com www.medianline.com
Gold N Grains: Hunting Large Swing
Trades in Trending Markets

Tim Morge

June 13, 2013

Agricultural Product Complex
www.cmegroup.com/agriculture

Grains & Oilseed:

Corn – Soybeans –
 Futures – Full-size and Mini-size  Futures – Full-size and Mini-size
 Options – Standard, Serial, Short-Dated  Options – Standard, Serial, Short-Dated New
New Crop, Inter-commodity spread Crop, Calendar Spread, Weekly, Price Ratio
(Wheat/Corn), Calendar Spread, Weekly, (Soybean/Corn)
Price Ratio (Soybean/Corn) Soybean Oil –
Wheat –  Futures – Full-size
 Futures – Full-size and Mini-size  Options – Standard, Serial, Calendar Spread,
 Options – Standard, Serial, Short-Dated Weekly
New Crop, Inter-market spread Soybean Meal –
(MGEX/CBOT), Interc-ommodity spread  Futures – Full-size
(Wheat/Corn), Calendar Spread, Weekly,  Options – Standard, Serial, Calendar Spread,
Price Ratio (Corn/Wheat) Weekly
Kansas City Wheat – Rough Rice, Oats –
 Futures  Futures
 Options – Standard, Serial  Options – Standard, Serial

© 2013 CME Group. All rights reserved

 Grain and Oilseed Combined Futures and
Options - Average Daily Volume
Grain and Oilseed Combined Futures and Options - Average Daily Volume
Futures Options

1,400,000

1,200,000

1,000,000
Contracts

800,000

600,000

400,000

200,000

© 2013 CME Group. All rights reserved

2013 CME Group Metals YTD Performance
CME Group Benchmark Metals Futures ADV 2013 will be a banner year for
GOLD SILVER COPPER PLATINUM PALLADIUM TOTAL
500,000 CME Group Metals
450,000 • On pace to have record volumes
400,000
350,000 • Exciting new products on the horizon
300,000 • Various records reached in Copper,
250,000
200,000 Platinum and Palladium
150,000 • Important anniversaries
100,000
50,000
• Silver - 50th
0 • Copper - 25th
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5
• COMEX - 80th
2011 2012 2013
YTD Growth Futures Options
CME Group Benchmark Metals Options ADV
Overall 21% 36%
GOLD SILVER PLATINUM PALLADIUM COPPER TOTAL
90,000
Gold 23% 36%
80,000

70,000 Silver 14% 19%

60,000
Copper 17% 763%
50,000

40,000 Platinum 30% 176%

30,000
Palladium 58% 182%
20,000

10,000
www.cmegroup.com/metals
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5

© 2013 CME Group. All rights reserved

COMEX 1,000-oz Silver Futures (SIL)
The Contract
At one-fifth the size of our
5000 oz. benchmark Silver
Futures (SI) contract, our new
1,000-oz. Silver Futures
contract (SIL) is designed to
give smaller market
participants an efficient and
Launching June 17, 2013 less-expensive vehicle to
remain a vibrant part of the

Benefits market. Additionally, the ability

to deliver, or take delivery of,
• Fungible with 5000 oz. benchmark • Convertible: with five ACEs equivalent
five Accumulated Certificates
Silver Futures contract (SI) to one 5,000-oz. COMEX Silver Warrant
of Exchange, or ACEs, and to
• Tailored for individual traders and • Accessible on all three venues: CME convert all five certificates into
smaller trade houses at 1/5 of the big Globex, the New York trading floor, and
contract for submission for clearing through CME one COMEX Silver Warrant,
ClearPort provides maximum flexibility
• Smaller initial capital outlay and lower
for the marketplace.
margin than the SI contract • Backed by the security of CME
Clearing

www.cmegroup.com/metals
© 2013 CME Group. All rights reserved
Gold N Grains: Hunting Large Swing
Trades in Trending Markets

Tim Morge

June 13, 2013