Demography and

Demographic Method

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 Introduction

The nature and scope of demography

The term demography is derived from the Greek word ‘demos’ means a
human being.

It is a scientific study of human populations in their aggregate with

regard to their size, composition or structure, spatial distributions and
developments or changes in these over time.

In its wider definition, where it is also called Population Studies, it not

only deals with levels and changes in the size, composition and
distribution of the population but also with the causes and consequence
of the levels and changes.
Demographic analysis of population is the analysis of size, growth,
spatial distribution and age-sex status structure over time.

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Importance of demography
- To examine the nature of population composition related wit
h different variables.
- To analyze population change in relation to technological and
social change.
- For effective implementation of inclusive development.
- To understand the political dynamics
- To examine the impact of population change and/or populati
on growth in relation of education, crime, employment, healt
h and economic factor.
- For effective analysis of planning and policy implications of de
mographic variables
Hence, Demographic analysis of population is the analysis of size,
growth, spatial distribution and age-sex structure over time.

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Sources of demographic data
1. Census
It refers to the enumeration of the entire population at a
particular point of time.
There are two types of conducting censuses.
• De facto method: is to count the population according to w
here the persons are staying at the time of census enumerati
on or the night before, irrespective of their usual place of resi
dence.
• De jure method: is to collect information about people who a
re the normal residents of a specified area, irrespective of wh
ether they are present or not at the time of the census enume
ration time in that particular household.
The primary unit of census enumeration is the individual.
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2.Sample surveys

A sample survey involves taking a sample of the population

to be enumerated with more trained investigators more
intensely in a few selected areas.
The major advantage of this type of data collection is that it
requires fewer resources – money and manpower – than
required for censuses and registration.
Sample survey also involves the use of data obtained from
service statistics.
Representativeness of samples is vital in sample surveys.
3. International sources
United nations publications and websites
4. National publications
In Ethiopia, CSA 5
5. Vital registration/statistics
Vital registration is a system for the registration of the
demographic events occurring in a population births,
deaths and marriages & is the basic source of information
on population dynamics.
The registration system of developed nations provides
elaborate statistical data on many aspects of social change
In most countries, the registration of births and deaths is
compulsory, as this information is also necessary for
individuals for a variety of legal purposes.

Q. In Ethiopia, which government unit is responsible

for vital registration?

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Basic Concepts and Measures
Universe and variables
It is concerned with a set of individuals or objects.
(animate or objects/ finite or infinite)
In demography, the term universe refers to human population.

Demography studies the characteristics of the population.

The characteristics may vary from individual to individual
and time and space. i.e. Variable e.g. age
Variables are grouped into four categories according to the
nature of scale of values of the variables.
1. Nominal variables
Assumes only a limited set of values
Values do not have any hierarchical relationship with each
other. 7
2. Ordinal variables
Variables that can be represented in an ascending or
descending scale.
3. Interval variables
values can be represented as falling within specified class
Intervals.
There is equal distance between adjacent points on
the scale.
E.g. temperature scale
4. Ratio
It is a scale consists not only of equidistant points but also
has a meaningful zero point.
Ratio scales are the most sophisticated of scales.
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Dependent and independent variables
Dependent variables
Dependent variable is variable whose variation depends on
another variable.
Independent variables
Is a variable whose variation produces (“causes”) variation
in another variable.
X Y
– Causes: independent variables – Effects or results:
dependent variables
Economic opportunity migration

Q. Assessment on Outsourcing on the Performance of Selected B

everage Producing Companies
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Rates, Ratios and Proportion
Rates
Rates are the most commonly used demographic measure
Rate refers to the occurrence of events over a given interval
of time.
In demographic applications, rates are normally considered
as indicators of what is known in statistical parlance as
occurrence/exposure.
Rate= Number of demographic events X 1000
Population of size in a given period of time
E.g. Crude birth rate= Number of births during a year
Population at mid-year

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Ratios
A ratio is the result of dividing the size of one of the two
non-overlapping groups possessing some common characteristis
by that of the other.
Sex ratio= Number of males X 100
Number of females
Normal sex ratio at birth is around 105 boys per 100 girls.
It is an index helpful in comparing the relative strength of
each group in populations at different times and territories.
Proportion
is a relative number that expresses the size of one
subgroup to the total of all subgroups.
Q. E.g. urban proportion?
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Questions for discussion
1. Which source of demographic data is more
applicable for Ethiopia? Why?
2. List at least 2 variables for each- nominal, ordinal
and ratio- levels of measurement.
3. What is the universe of demographic analysis?
4. Relevance of demography for urban planners.
5. Which measure/s demography is/are used in
comparing the relative strength of each group in
populations at different times?
6. What is meant by “constant characteristic” in the
concept of variable?

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 Recapitulation of last class

Basic concepts and measures

Universe
Rates and proportions
Variables
Dependent
Independent
Constant characteristic
Levels of measurement

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 Components of population change
Concept of population change
Population change is measured as the difference in population
size between two points of time.
It also refer to changes in size, distribution or composition,
or to any combination of the three.
It can be expressed in terms of absolute change,
percentage and average annual absolute change.

Pt= P0 + Natural increase + Net migration

Population growth occur when natural increase and/or
net migration is positive.
Fertility, mortality & migration are the main components
of population change.
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 1. Fertility

• The term ‘fertility’ is used to connote the actual

reproductive performance of a woman or the number of
children a woman has or the average number of children for a
group of women.
• Fertility is the reproductive performance of an individual, a
couple, a group or a population. It is meant the actual be
aring of children.
• The term ‘fecundity’ is used to connote the physiological
capacity to bear children and is the opposite of the term ‘
sterility’.
• The fertility of an individual woman is thus limited by her own
fecundity.
• A woman’s reproductive period is roughly 15 – 49 years of
age.
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 Measures of fertility

• There are different measures of fertility.

1. Crude birth rate (CBR)
It includes all age group and both sexes in denominator.
It is not a very precise measure of fertility.
CBR = Number of live births in a year X 1000
Total mid-year population
The crude birth rate indicates the number of live births
(children born alive) per 1000 mid–year population in a
given year.
It is high for population of the developing countries and low
for those of the developed ones.
Q. Why CBR is not a very precise measure of fertility?
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• Fertility may be grossly determined as high, medium or
low based on CBR values.
• High fertility Rate = > 30/1000
• Medium fertility rate = 20-30/1000
• Low fertility rate = < 20/1000

2. General fertility rate

The General Fertility Rate is the number of live births per 1000 females
aged 15-49 years (fertile age group) in a given year.
The GFR in more sensitive measure of fertility than the CBR.

GFR= Number of live births in a year X 1000

Number of females 15-49 years of age

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 3. Age specific fertility rates (ASFR)
• The Age specific fertility rate is defined as the number of children born
alive to females in a specific age group per 1000 females in that specific
age group.

ASFR = No. of live births to females in a specific age group X 1000

Mid-year population of females of the same age group

4. Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

The total Fertility Rate is the average number of children that would
be born to a woman throughout her life time or her child bearing age
(15-49 years).
The TFR sums up in a single number the Age Specific Fertility Rates of
all women at a given point in time.
TFR = Sum of all Age specific fertility rates multiplied by age interval
The TFR is one of most useful indicators of fertility, because it gives the
best picture of how many children women are having currently.
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5. Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)
The Gross Reproduction Rate is the average number of
daughters that would be born to a woman throughout her
lifetime or child bearing age (15-49 years).
The GRR is calculated by multiplying the TFR by the
proportion of female births (Sex Ratio at birth).
GRR = TFR X Female births
Male + Female births
6. Child–Woman Ratio (CWR)
This ratio is used where birth registration statistics do not
exist or are inadequate. It is estimated by censuses data.
CWR = No. of children 0 – 4 years of age X 1000
Total No. of women 15 – 49 years age

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 Factors of fertility
• Demographers pay the closest attention to four factors that
impact fertility, which are known as the proximate determina
nts because statistically they account for nearly all differences
in fertility levels among populations.
• These determinants are:
1. Proportion of women who are permanently or temporarily
2. unable to conceive (in fecund)
3. Proportion of women either married or in a sexual union
4. Percentage of women using contraception
4. Level of induced abortion
Generally, the main factors of fertility are demographic; socio-ec
onomic and cultural; and biological factors.

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 Recapitulation of last class

• Fertility
• Fecundity
• Measures of fertility
CBR (Crude birth rate)
GFR (General fertility rate)
ASFR (Age specific fertility rate)
TFR (Total fertility rate)
GRR (Gross reproductive rate)
CWR (Child-women ratio)

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 2. Migration

• Migration refers to the movement of individuals or groups fro

m one place to another which involves permanent or semi p
ermanent change of usual residence.
• Migration is the most volatile of the basic demographic variab
les- quickly reflecting changing social, economic and political
circumstances; both at the national and international level.
• Migration information and measure is crucial for the formulat
ion of effective policies and plans.
• Internal and international migration
• Internal migration is the means by which the majority of
people maximize opportunities, whether economic,
social or environmental. Most movement is from areas of
decline to areas of growth.

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 Characteristics of migration

1. Migration is selective.
2. Migrants primarily responds to negative factors at the origin.
3. The degree of positive selective increase with the difficulty
of obstacles.
4. The characteristics of migration tends to intermediate
between the characteristics of population at the origin and
the characteristics of population at the destination.
5. Each current of migration produces a compensating counter
current.
6. Females are more migratory than males.

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7. The natives of cities are less migratory than those
of rural areas.
8. Large cities grows more by migration than natural
increase.
9. The major cause of migration is related to economic
conditions.
10. The major direction of migration is from agriculture to
centers of industry and commerce.
11. Migration increases in volume as industries and
commerce developed.

Q. Identify the main variables in the characteristics of

migration.

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 Measures of migration

• Crude migration rate

Mi= ___I___ X K
P
Mo= ___O___ X K
P
• Estimate net migration to a country between two
censuses held at times 1 and 2. (If migration data are
not available)

M= (P2 – P1) – (B-D)

• Where P1 and P2 the total populations at times 1 and 2;
B D births and deaths between times 1 and 2.

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 Questions for discussion
1. Identify the main variables in the characteriscs
of migration.
2. The main factors of fertility are demographic;
socio-economic and cultural; and biological
factors. Write examples for each factor.
3. Interpret the results of sex ratio:
i. < 100
ii. > 100
iii. =100
4. South Korea and Niger has the fertility rate of
0.9 and 6.7 respectively (world lowest and
highest rate). What does it mean?
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 Measures of Mortality
• Crude Death Rate (CDR)
The crude death rate is the number of deaths per 1000
population in a given year.
CDR = Total number of deaths X 1000
Mid-year population
As its name implies the CDR is not a sensitive measure
(indicator) of health status of a population.
Q. Why is that CDR is not a sensitive measure?
It is affected by particularly the age structure of population
Age specific Death (Mortality) Rates
Death Rates can be calculated for specific age groups,
in order to compare mortality at different ages.
ASMR = Number of deaths in a specific age group X 1000
Mid-year population of the
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same age group
• Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
Infant Mortality Rate is the number of deaths of infants
under one year of age (0-11 months of age) per 1000 live
births in a given year.
• Infant (children under one year of age) are at highest risk of
death than any other age group.
• IMR = Number of death < 1 year of age in a year X 1000
Total live births during that year
The infant mortality rate is considered to be a sensitive
indicator of the health status of a community, because it
reflects the socio-economic condition of the population.

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 2. Mortality

• Mortality refers to deaths that occur within a population (

reduction of population). The incidence of death can rev
eal much about the living standard, the health status of a
population and the availability of health services.
• Mortality (Death) rates have three essential elements:
• A population group exposed to the risk of death
(denominator), the number of deaths occurring in pop
ulation group (numerator) and a time period.
Morbidity is the state of being unhealthy for a particular
disease or situation. It is the condition of suffering from a
disease or medical condition.
Q. What is the difference between mortality and morbi
dity?
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Child Mortality Rate (CMR)
It is the number of deaths of children 1-4 years of age per
1000 children 1-4 years of age. It is a sensitive indicators of
the health status of a community.
CMR = No. of deaths of children 1-4 year of age X 1000
Total number of children 1-4 years of age
Sex Specific Death Rates (SSDR)
Sex Specific Death Rate is the number of deaths among a
specific sex group (males or females) per 1000 population
of the same sex group.
SSDR= Number of deaths among specific sex X 1000
Total number of the same sex group
Sex specific mortality rate is used to determine which sex
group is at higher risk of death than the other.
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 Exercise on fertility & mortality
A survey was conducted in town “X” in September 2023. It revealed a
total population of 389,000 (196,500 males and 192,500 females).
Total population for 2022 was 357000. Total Number of children born
alive during 2022 and 2023 was 15,572 and 16,400 respectively.
The survey has recorded a total of 5835 deaths (3200 males and
2635 females) in 2023. The survey has also identified the following
deaths among the population:
Children 0 to 1 year = 1470 Children 1 year – 4 years = 1865
Persons 15 – 49 years = 700 Persons 50 years and above = 1000
Questions: calculate net migration rate, Crude Death Rate, General Fertility
Rate, Infant Mortality Rate, Sex Ratio at Birth, Sex Specific Mortality Rate
for females, Total Fertility Rate and Gross Reproductive Rate.
If there is no data available to calculate any one of the
above measures write “Data Not Available”.

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 Growth of population
• There is relationship between population immigration and
emigration; and birth and death rates in population growth
. This relationship is summarized by a formula known as the
balancing equation. It is expressed as:
P2 = P1 + ( B – D) + ( I – E)
Where:
P2= Size of population for the year under consideration
P1= Size of population in the previous year
B = Number of births
D= Number of deaths
I= Number of in migration
E= Number of out migration
 Rate of Natural Population increase (RNI)
RNI = Births - Deaths X 100
Total Population
Total Population Growth Rate
It is the rate at which a population is increasing (or decreasing
in a given year due to natural increase and net migration
expressed as a percentage of the base population.

TPGR = Natural increase + Net Migration X 100

Total Population
 Perspective on population growth
(fertility, mortality and migration)
Thomas Malthus (1766-1834)
Hypothesized that there is relationship between economic
development and population growth.
Q. Identify the independent and dependent variables
He claimed that population is increasing faster than food
production, and he feared eventual global starvation.
He suggested that populations tend to grow in geometric
progression while food supplies can at best grow in
arithmetic progression.
Malthus said that if the growth of population exceeds that of
food supplies, there should be
1. Preventive checks such as continence and delayed marriage
2. Positive Checks, such as starvation or famine
 Recapitulation of last class

• Mortality
• Morbidity
• Measures of mortality
- CDR
- ASMR
- IMR
- CMR
- Sex Specific Death Rates (SSDR)
The balancing equation
Rate of Natural Population increase (RNI)
Total Population Growth Rate
Malthusian perspective

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Chapter Three: Measurement of age, Causes of Error
and Detection

Population composition by sex & age structure

• Population composition refers to the structure of the
population in terms of age, sex, geographical
distribution, socio-economic status etc.
• The structure of a population is influenced or affected by
births, deaths & migration and their predisposing factors.
• The age – sex structure determines potential for future
growth of specific age groups, as well as the total population.
For these reasons the age structure has significant
government policy & planning implications.
• It is also the crucial variable in determining the size of the
potential school-going population, manpower, women in the
childbearing ages, older population requiring pension etc.
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 Population pyramid

The age–sex structure of a country can be studied through

population pyramids. Population pyramids show pictorially
(graphically) the effects of the three factors that influence

population.
The overall shape of the pyramid indicates the potential for
future growth. Population pyramids present the population
of an area or country in terms of its composition by age and
sex at a point in time.
The series of horizontal bars in a pyramid represent the
percentage contribution of each age and sex groups (often
of five years age group interval) in the population.

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Example of population pyramid

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 Apex= People living to old age

People ≥ 65 years=
Old dependency

Height= life span

Median age

People < 15 years=

Young dependency
Base= births
 Types of population pyramid
1. E xpansive population pyramid

• Expansive/ expanding pyramid

usually presents itself in the form
of triangular shape with concaved
edges
• High population growth due to:
• High birth rate
• Shorter life expectancy
• (high death rate)
• Usually associated with lower
standard of living
 2. S tationary population pyramid

It is showing unchanging
pattern of fertility and mo
rtality

• Age groups almost

equal, but it is expected
to see smaller figures at
the oldest age groups

Q. What do you
observe?
 3. Constrictive population pyramid

• Narrow base
• Apex wider
• It is more common when
immigrants are factored out
• Indicated:
• High level of education
• Use of birth control
• Good health care system
 What Population Pyramids Show Us

Economically Economically
more less
developed developed
country country
KEY
slope of pyramid indicate the death rate

width of the base is related to birth rate/fertility rate

proportions of men and women can suggest male or female migrations

height of graph can indicate life expectancy (ignore the very thin end of the
wedge as occurs on graph B as these people are a definite minority)

"kinks" indicate dramatic reductions in birth rate or increases in

death rate in the past

area of graph indicates total population - compare areas of different

population age groups or different sex on one graph

The overall shape of the population pyramid can indicate whether it is an

economically more developed country or economically less developed country.
 Theory of Demographic Transition

• Demographic transition is the historical shift of birth and d

eath rates from high to low levels in a population; a term us
ed to describe the major demographic trends of the past ce
nturies.

• The change in populations basically consists of a shift from an

equilibrium condition of high birth and death rates, character
istic of agrarian societies to a newer equilibrium in which
both birth and death rates are at much lower level.
• The period of transition, at least in Western Europe, was
initiated by a drop in death rates that was followed some y
ears later by a fall in birth rates.

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 Stage one

• Agrarian civilizations (primitive stage) are characterized by sta

ble or slowly growing populations with crude birth rates grea
ter than 45 per 1000 and crude death rate greater than 35 per
1000 births.
• Agricultural existence favors large families. However high
birth rates are balanced by high death rates resulting in very
low population growth.
STAGE TWO
• Advances in sanitation and improved availability and quality
of food, water, and shelter lead to fall in death rate and an
increase in life expectancy. The improved condition of life
may favor an increase in fertility.
• During this period, a marked excess of births over death devel
oped leading to a rapid expansion of population.
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 Stage three

• Characterized by falling growth rates. After a time, birth rates

tend to fall, largely as a reflection of industrialization and
consequent urbanization.

• With industrialization people tend to migrate from rural to u

rban areas. Urban living not only breaks the traditional patter
ns but also creates incentives for having small families. Living
quarters are cramped, children being a financial liability rathe
r than asset.
Stage four
• This stage is reached in highly developed societies when both
birth and death rates are low and population growth rates ar
e very low, zero or even negative.

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Demographic Transition