Interpretation of result in Simple Linear Regression Model

Model Summaryb

Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson

1 .861a .742 .739 .6114 1.949

Strong correlation between the dependent and independent variables is represented by the R-value. In this situation,
the value is .861, which is indicates/resulting a strong correlation of birth rate per 1000 people and population
increase (% per year). Additionally, R-square is the amount of variance in the dependent variable that can be explained
by the independent variables. A score larger than 0.05 indicates that the model is capable of determining a relationship.
In the preceding instance, the value is.742, which is good. The results of the preferred model presented above show
that the goodness of fit is remarkable, as indicated by the R-square of.742 or 74.2%, implying that there is 74.2%
explained variance and the remaining 25.8% is unexplained variance.

ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
Regression 114.890 1 114.890 307.347 .000b
1 Residual 39.998 107 .374
Total 154.888 108
a. Dependent Variable: Population increase (% per year))
b. Predictors: (Constant), Birth rate per 1000 people

Looking at the result of the P-value/Sig value generally 95% confidence interval or 5% level of the significance level is
chosen for the Interpretation. Thus, the p-value should be less than 0.05 or 5%. In the above table, it is .000. Therefore,
the result is significant. It indicates that there is significant relationship on to the dependent variable Population increase
(% per year) as the independent variables of Birth rate per 1000 people. Additionally, F-ratio, it represents an
improvement in the prediction of the variable by fitting the model after considering the inaccuracy present in the model.
A value is greater than 1% for F-ratio yield efficient model. In the above table, the value is 307.347 which is good.
The Coefficients table gives us the values we need to write the regression equation Ŷ = a + bX. We can then
use this equation to predict our dependent variable (Population increase (% per year)) from our independent variable
(Birth rate per 1000 people).

Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized t Sig. 95.0% Confidence Interval for B
Coefficients
B Std. Error Beta Lower Bound Upper Bound
(Constant) -.481 .137 -3.519 .001 -.751 -.210
1
Birth rate per 1000 people .083 .005 .861 17.531 .000 .074 .093
a. Dependent Variable: Population increase (% per year))
We find the value of a in the (Constant) row of the B column under Unstandardized Coefficients. In our
example, this value is -.481. And also we find the value of b in the independent variable row (Birth rate per 1000 people)
of the B column under Unstandardized Coefficients. The value of b will be positive, as it is here (.083) when the
correlation between your variables is positive. The value of b will be negative when the correlation between your
variables is negative.
The regression equation for our regression model:
Population increase (% per year) = -.481+ .083 (Birth rate per 1000 people)

This means that for every one-unit increase in a peoples Birth rate per 1000 people, we predict that their well be Population increase
(% per year) by .083 units.
The 95.0% Confidence Interval for B in the row of our independent variable (Birth rate per 1000 people) indicates that we can be
95% confident that the population value for the slope of the regression line between our variables lies between .074 and .093.

Considering these assumptions :

Figure 1 Figure 2

Our first assumption is to determine the linearity by creating a scatterplot using SPSS we can claim that there
is a positive linear relationship between Birthrate per 1000 people to population Increase (% per year).
Additionally, we also test this assumption by reviewing the histogram of standardized residuals for the dependent
variable. If these residuals are approximately normally distributed, as they are in our histogram below, then the assumption is met.
By looking at the histogram it results as approximately normal distributed of residuals is a positive indicator in linear regression, it
can support the validity of our model and the reliability of statistical inferences.
Residuals Statisticsa
Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation N
Predicted Value .354 3.942 1.682 1.0314 109
Residual -1.2270 3.3843 .0000 .6086 109
Std. Predicted Value -1.288 2.191 .000 1.000 109
Std. Residual -2.007 5.535 .000 .995 109
a. Dependent Variable: Population increase (% per year))

Our second assumption is absence of extreme outliers. A regression analysis is sensitive to outliers, so we want to
ensure that there are no extreme outliers in our data set. We can do this by reviewing the Minimum and Maximum
columns of the Std. Residual row in the Residuals Statistics table. A data point with a standardized residual that is
more extreme than +/-3 is usually considered to be an outlier. In other words, if the value in the Minimum column of
the Std. Residual row is less than -3, we should investigate it. Similarly, if the value in the Maximum column of the Std.
Residual row is greater than 3, we should investigate it. Our minimum value of -2.007 and our maximum value of 5.535
indicate that our data set quite extreme and warrants further investigation extreme outliers.

Model Summaryb

Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson

1 .861a .742 .739 .6114 1.949

Our third assumption that we consider is independence of observations, because, we want to understand
and verify the assumptions of simple linear regression to have valid and meaningful statistical analyses. By Checking
the value of the Durbin-Watson statistic in the Model Summary table to determine whether our data satisfies the
independence of observations assumption. Values between 1.5 and 2.5 are normally considered to satisfy this
assumption. Our value of 1.949 falls well within this range. Therefore, this range suggests that there is no significant
autocorrelation in the residuals. A value of 2 indicates no autocorrelation, while values slightly below or above 2 suggest
very mild autocorrelation that is generally not concerning.