HARAMAYA UNIVERSITY

SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES

Impact of Climate Change on Distribution of Indigenous

Tree Species in Case of Meta Woreda East Hararghe

Msc Research Proposal

Usmael Ahmed

School: Geography and Environmental Studies

College: Social Sciences and Humanities

Department: Climate Change Disaster Management

Major Advisor: Mr. Elias Cherinet (Assistance Professor)

Co- Advisor: Dr. Solomon Asfaw

December 2023

Haramaya University
 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
CRGE Climate Resilient Green Economy

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization

GHGs Greenhouse Gases

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

MoFECC Ministry of Environment Forest and Climate Change

MoA Ministry of Agriculture

NMA National Meteorological Agency

FAO Food Agriculture Organization

UNEP United Nation Environment Protection

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

NAPA National Adaptation Plan Action

MoWE Ministry of Water and Energy

INDC Intended Nationality Determined Contribution

NAMA Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions

SDM Spatial distribution modeling

WFP World Food Programme

CGIAR Critical Ecosystem Services for Communities in

Ethiopia

INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution

AR Assessment Report

GPS Global Position System

ENFA Ecological-Niche Factor Analysis

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MaxEnt Maximum Entropy

GLM Generalized Linear Model

GAM Generalized Addition Model

CART Classification and Regression Tree

MARS Multiple Adaptive Regression Spline

GARP Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction

ANN Artificial Neural Networks

CART classification and regression trees

REDD+ Reduction Emission Degradation

AUC Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve

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 TABLE OF CONTENTS
PAGES

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ii

LIST OF FIGURES vi
1. INTRODUCTION 1
1.1. Back Ground 1
1.2. Statement of Problems 3
1.3. Scope of the Study 4
1.4. Significance of the Study 5
1.5. Objectives of the Study 6
1.5.1. General objective 6
1.5.2. Specific objectives 6
2. LITERATURE REVIEW 7
2.1. Definitions of Key Word 7
2.2. What is Climate Change? 8
2.3. Cause of Climate Change 9
2.4. Impact of Climate Change on Distribution of Native Plant of Globe 11
2.5. Impact of Climate Change on Tree Species of Africa 13
2.6. Climate Change and Its Impact in Ethiopia 15
2.7. Indigenous Tree Species of Ethiopia 17
2.8. Distribution and Vulnerability of Indigenous Trees species of Ethiopia to Climate Change
20
2.9. Climate Change Observation in Tree Species 22
2.10. Ethiopian; Response to Climate Change 24
2.11. Measuring Distribution of Indigenous Tree Species to Climate Change 26
2.3. Empirical Part of the Study 30
2.3.1. Conceptual Frame Work 30
3. DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA AND RESEARCH METHODS 33
3.1. Descriptions of the Study Area 33
3.2.1. Research Design 35
3.3. Sampling Techniques and Sample Selection Size 37
3.4. Data collection 37
3.4.1. Field Observation 38
3.4.2. Data Collection Tools 38
3.5. Data Analysis 39

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4. TIME SCHEDULE 42
5. BUDGET BREAK DOWN 43
6. REFERANCE 46
APPROVAL SHEET 52

v
 LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Climate Response

Figure 2: Conceptual Frame Work 32

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 1. INTRODUCTION

1.1. Back Ground

Global climate change has become the most important environmental
issue we have ever faced, and which is considered one of the major
threats to global biodiversity in the 21st Century (Dawson, 2011;
Zhao et al., 2021).

Africa has been classified as one of the regions of the world most
vulnerable to the impacts of climate change owing to its high
exposure and poor adaptive capacity (Niang et al., 2014). Climatic
conditions have changed in the recent years in East Africa due to
natural climate variability and land use change (Maeda et al., 2011).

Ethiopia is among the largest countries of Africa and it is

characterized by a wide variety of landscapes, ranging from about
155 m below sea level, to about 4,533 meter above sea level (EMA
1988). For these reasons the country is subjected to large spatial
variations in temperature and precipitation. Current statics show that
Ethiopia has 17.22 million ha forest resources i.e. 15.5% the country
area referred in the GTP II (kefiyalew, 2016).

The vegetation of Ethiopia comprises over 7000 species out of which

o v e r 4 7 5 a r e e n d e m i c t o t h e c o u n t r y ( A w a s , 2 0 0 7 ). G l o b a l l y C l i m a t e
changes have large impacts on forest ecosystem. The tree and forest
growth rate is significantly correlated with climate and Climate
change impacts on environment brings a reduction in the distribution
and abundance of forest species, especially endemics, which may
even result in their global extinction (Mari E. L. and Vilene E.
M.,2016). Forest has an indispensable role in regulating global
carbon and nitrogen cycles (Rehman et al. 2021; Reichstein and
Carvalhais, 2019). Hence, disturbances in forest ecology affect the
micro and macro-climates (Ellison et al., 2017).

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According to Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change
2016 final report, assisted natural regeneration with the enrichment
planting for forest level investment per hectares is USD 448447.6
under a forthcoming REDD+ scheme. And, also REDD+ programme
has great potential to deliver on the country’s targets to lower
deforestation and increase afforestation.

Indigenous tree species is vulnerable to change of climate change

because the demand of the people to natural forest were decreased at
alarming rate to 15.1 million hectares by 1990 and 12.5 million by
2015 covering only 11.4% of total land mass (FAO, 2015).The
successful regeneration of native tree populations is crucial for
maintaining forest ecosystems and biodiversity (Betts et al., 2019).

However, to understand these potential impacts of climate change is

essential for predicting the future resilience and adaptability of
native (Chazdon .R. L., 2017). ). Species distribution models (SDMs)
are a set of analytical tools used to identify suitable environmental
conditions for a species’ potential establishment by identifying
locations with environmental conditions that match observed species
occurrence (Phillips et al., 2009). SDMs make use of species’
occurrences and relevant environmental predictors to provide
estimates of current and future potential distributions.

Therefore, in this study we investigated the current distribution of

indigenous tree species and modeling potential distribution. There is
an urgent need to identify areas that could potentially suitable for
indigenous tree species that represent the study area.

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1.2. Statement of Problems
Global and regional ecosystems are facing serious threats due to
global change (Pang, S.E.H.et al., 2021). Multiple studies have
demonstrated that global change has had a considerable impact on
species, populations, and ecosystems, and this impact has only
intensified over time (delRío et al., 2021; Elsen et al., 2020). Recent
Climate has become one of the main drivers of shifts in geographical
distributions of plants (Parmesan, 2011).Some studies have assessed
changes in climate would affect geographic distribution of some
threatened native species in Ethiopia (Abraha et al. 2018).

In the face of climate change and its negative impacts, it is critical

to look for native tree resources that would help us deal with the
ongoing and looming environmental crises.

In the study area there is no uniform distribution of indigenous tree

species. It is scatter and the remaining amounts of native tree species
are small in number. This is because of the absence of sound policy
on their preservation, development and wise utilization.

Some studies were carried out on impact of climate change on

distribution of tree species in Ethiopia. Among these studies
modeling the Impacts of Climate Changes on the Distribution of Aloe
Vera Species in Ethiopia (Abdulbasit and Sinteyehu, 2021).The other
related research in this area was Predicting Suitable habitats of
endangered Juniperus procera Tree under Climate change in Northern
Ethiopia Abraha et al., 2018).

In East hararghe some research has been done on tree species. One of
the researches on tree species is the title on Tree Species Diversity
in Smallholder Coffee Farms of Bedeno District, Eastern Hararghe
Zone, Oromia Regional State (Ahmed et al., 2021).

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Some of the study focused on single Species e.g. modeling of
suitable habitat for rehabilitation of Podocarpus forest at landscape
(Tesfamariam et al., 2022), and limited to Agroforestry species only
without including forest tree species. Maximum entropy approaches
have recently been introduced and used by many research work and
have produced excellent results in comparative tests (Elith et al.
2010; Pearson et al. 2007.

However, in Ethiopia many researcher have not done their study on

small area rather than they focused on large area. And, also factors
that determining the present and future distribution of the Indigenous
trees, in study area, were not yet documented and there was no data
that support the impact of climate change on indigenous tree species
in this woreda and selected study area. The information obtained
from various was insufficient.

Therefore, to fill these gaps of data and knowledge the

Investigations of climate change impact on distribution of indigenous
tree species is important.

1.3. Scope of the Study

For this study the researcher’s select four sample kebeles of Meta
woreda of East Hararghe, Oromia regional state. These kebeles are
classified under Dega, Woina Dega, and kola agro ecological zone.
The study area is selected purposely based on researcher’s previous
and current knowledge for the woreda and sample kebeles selected
for the study. This help the researcher’s to identify the problems
from all type of climatic zone and for modeling the impact of climate
change on the distribution indigenous tree species in the these
climatic zone.

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These kebels are Ifa Jalala, Doke2, Hakabas and Halayo bala and all
located in the northern part of woreda.

The main species that the study will focus is the higher plant of
indigenous tree species such as Juniperus procera, Podocarpus
Falcutus, Olea Africana, Hygienia Abyssinica, Croton Macrostachys
and Cordia Africa are the main indigenous species found in the study
area and currently under threat because of many factors of climate
change.

The researcher’s will use different methodological procedure and

systematic process to carry out the study. For species occurrence
data obtain from Global Biodiversity and Arc GIS 10.8 micro soft
Excel for mapping distribution of indigenous species. The
researcher’s will use GPS to determine the locations of indigenous
tree species in the study area.

The planned time for data collection and analysis in this study is four
month. The other portion of research will be done according to the
scheduled planned in the study.

1.4. Significance of the Study

The impact of climate change is widely explained and studied in the
previous assessments of climate change impacts especially in Africa
(IPPC, AR6 (Assessment of Report, 2022).

The climate changes impact leads countries to serious problems

especially developing countries like Ethiopia. Studying the impact of
climate change on distribution of indigenous tree species in the study
area is useful and will provide information for different concerned
bodies’ governmental and non-governmental organization,
researchers, planners, policy makers.

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At lower levels; at kebele level and woreda level planting indigenous
tree species help to slow the effects of global warming and burning
fossil fuels and destroying native forest tree make more impact on an
area. Locally more is understood on changes in the distribution of
indigenous tree species and changes in their composition, survival
rate and growth. At local level awareness will be created on the
adaptation of some species capacity to adapt to climate changes and
their vulnerability to climate changes.

Understanding the ecology and factors that limit the distribution of

indigenous tree species and predicting the potential suitable
distribution of these species are useful for providing scientific basis
for sustainable management, protection. And, also modeling the
potential suitable distribution of tree species will assist the Green
legacy and other strategy of Ethiopian government in the the
restoration forest.

In General, this study will help as input for forestry and controlling
endemic species of an area.

1.5. Objectives of the Study

1.5.1. General objective

The general objective of the study is to assess the impact of climate
change on distribution of indigenous tree species.

1.5.2. Specific objectives

 Identifying potentially suitable areas and habitat for indigenous
tree species
 Determining level of environmental variables in the
distribution of indigenous tree species.
 Understanding the factor that limit the distribution of
indigenous tree species
 Mapping Distribution of Indigenous tree Species in study area

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 2. LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1. Definitions of Key Word

Vulnerability: _ is the degree to which a system is susceptible to,
or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change,
including climate variability and extremes.
Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of
climate variation to which a system is exposed relative to
sensitivity and its adaptive capacity.
Climate: Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the
average weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical description
in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a
period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of
years. The classical period for averaging these variables is 30
years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization. The
relevant quantities are most often surface variables such as
temperature, rainfall, and wind (IPCC, 2012).
Climate change: Climate change refers to a variation in the state
of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or
the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended
period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in
climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result
of human activity (IPCC, 2007).
Indigenous tree species: Tree species which have evolved in the
same area, region or biotope where the forest stand is growing and
are adapted to the specific ecological conditions predominant at
the time of the establishment of the stand.

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 MaxEnt: is a machine-learning method that estimates the species
distribution probability by assessing the maximum entropy
distribution, so that the most spread-out or closest are uniform.
MaxEnt is performed with only presence data, though it does
require background points. It also gives variable comparison and
test model accuracy by AUC (Phillips et al., 2006; Phillips &
Dudík, 2008).

2.2. What is Climate Change?

Climate change refers to a shift in average weather conditions,
including measures such as temperature, humidity, rainfall,
cloudiness and wind patterns and changes in the frequency or
severity of these conditions. The Earth’s climate has changed
throughout its history, in cycles that occur over very long periods of
time. This is a natural process. Today we tend to use the phrase
‘climate change’ to refer to the very rapid changes in the climate that
we have seen over the past 50 years or so. The scientific evidence is
clear that these changes are not being driven by long-term natural
climate cycles. Instead their main cause is global warming and the
human activities that cause it (Schaller, N. et al. 2016).

Climate change terms have included global warming, the greenhouse

effect and climate change itself. The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) defines climate change as “a change in the
state of the climate that can be identified… by changes in the mean
and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an
extended period” (IPCC, 2018). Climate Change, Global Warming and
more recently Climate Emergency have been, in the past decade and
longer, terms synonymous with the greatest sustainability challenge
of the 21st century (Martens et al., 2016).

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2.3. Cause of Climate Change
Climate change is caused by the emission of greenhouse gases into
the earth’s atmosphere through both natural processes and human
activities. Human lives are directly linked to climate change because
we depend on fossil fuels for our energy needs. There has been a
continuous rise in global temperature in the last 130 years, which has
huge air pollution, occurs as a result of incomplete burning of
fuels .Activities, the gaseous pollutants (include; sulphur dioxide,
nitrogen oxides, carbon dioxide, and carbon monoxide) emitted into
the air can also be by natural occurrences such as biological decay,
forest fires or volcanic eruptions (Harcourt, 2015).

Forests are one the main factors that determine climate such as
weather patterns and amount of CO2 of an area with rapid
industrialization and urbanization, there is a significant increase in
deforestation and as a consequence rise in global mean surface
temperatures. Rising demand for agricultural products such as food,
feed and bio-energy is a primary driver of forest clearance globally.
The expansion of agriculture into tropical forests releases substantial
amounts of carbon to the atmosphere (Baumann et al., 2017). The
farm animal production sector is the largest anthropogenic user of
land, contributing to soil degradation, dwindling water supplies, and
air pollution. Animal farming contributes to GHG emissions through
several routes.

The other cause of climate change is natural factor. Without the

influence of humans, the Earth has natural cycles that drive the
climate. One natural warming phenomenon is the greenhouse effect.
Among, Natural factor that cause climate change are volcanic
eruption the global temperature rise of 0.4°C in the past now
generally contributes to the greenhouse effect, the increment of
atmospheric carbon dioxide through anthropogenic pollution.

9
The volcanic pollution results in a substantial reduction in the stream
of solar energy as it passes through the upper layers of the
atmosphere, reflecting a significant amount back out into space
(Shahzad et al., 2017).

In Africa the main cause and driver of climate change is Increasing

temperatures of freshwaters, ocean and on land; heat waves;
precipitation changes (both increases and decreases); increased
atmospheric Con concentrations; sea level rise; ocean acidification
and Extreme heat, floods, drought, sea level rise and associated
coastal hazards; compound climate hazards (e.g., coinciding heat and
drought) Increased temperatures, reduced rainfall, extreme weather
events(Climate change ;2002, The Working Group II ; Contribution
to the IPPC Sixth Assessment Report).

In Ethiopia many sector is the cause of Climate change. Agriculture

is the dominant sector of GHG emissions, which contributes 80% of
the total GHG emissions. This reflects the fact that livestock farming
goes together with high methane emissions. These are dominated by
methane emissions, which account for 80% of the warming potential.
In addition to agriculture, the energy sector (heating, cooking, and
transport) contributes to the total GHG emissions with 15%. 95% of
the energy consumption is satisfied by biomass sources (mainly
wood). Ethiopia's GHG emissions are closely linked to basic needs of
the population. Therefore, the future GHG emissions will likely
increase with the projected increase in population.

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2.4. Impact of Climate Change on Distribution of Native
Plant of Globe
The average global surface temperature is predicted to increase by
2.8°c during this century (IPCC,2007).Such global warming would
alter the natural climate and environmental systems, leading to
increased frequency of extreme weather event such as drought,
storms, flooding, rising of sea level, reversal of ocean currents and
changes in precipitation patterns(Zerga at el., 2016).

The tree and forest growth rate is significantly correlated with

climate and Climate change impacts on environment brings a
reduction in the distribution and abundance of forest species,
especially endemics, which may even result in their global extinction
(Mari and Vilene ,2016). Forest has an indispensable role in
regulating global carbon and nitrogen cycles (Rehman et al. 2021;
Reichstein and Carvalhais, 2019). Hence, disturbances in forest
ecology affect the micro and macro-climates (Ellison et al., 2017).

It's important to note that the specific impacts of climate change on

tree species vary depending on their ecological requirements,
geographical location, and the rate and magnitude of climate change
in a particular region. Conservation efforts, such as promoting
connectivity between habitats, assisting species migration, and
protecting genetic diversity, are crucial to help mitigate the negative
impacts of climate change on tree species and maintain healthy and
resilient forest ecosystems.

The potential effects of climate change on the distribution and

ecological relevance of major tree species. Effectively conserving
natural eucalypt stands is complex enough given the high species
diversity and history of extensive clearing?

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However, climate change makes the problem considerably more
complex. The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014) has provided strong evidence
that the Earth’s climate is warming. Australia’s mean surface air
temperature has warmed by 0.9 0C since 1910 and there has been a
17% decline in average winter rainfall in the southwest of Western
Australia since 1970 (CSIRO and BoM, 2014). Australian
temperatures are expected to continue to warm. Warming by 2090,
compared to 1986–2005, is projected to be 2.8–5.1 0C if global
Emissions continue on a high emissions pathway (see
climatechangeinAustralia.gov.au for projections updated in 2015 and
derived from more than 40 global climate models). There are fewer
areas with undisturbed ecosystems on the planet. These are Canada
and Russia (North and Asian part) in the Northern hemisphere, the
Amazon basin, a significant part of Australia in the southern
hemisphere and the world ocean. Climate warming, in return, has
profound impacts on the growth and productivity of Tran’s boundary
forests by influencing the temperature and precipitation patterns, etc.

Climate change simulation of regional species diversity change

based on species dispersion models. Species distribution modeling
and the adaptability of non-native tree species to new habitats.
Future tree species distribution has implications for sustainable
forest management (Fibich, 2023).

As Climate change induces specific changes in the typical structure

and functions of ecosystems (Zhang et al. 2017) as well impacts
forest health, climate change also has several devastating
consequences such as forest fires, droughts, pest outbreaks
(EPA,2018)and last but not the least is the livelihoods of forest-
dependent communities.

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The rising frequency and intensity of another product, i.e., droughts,
pose plenty of challenges to the well-being of global forests
(Diffenbaugh et al., 2017).

2.5. Impact of Climate Change on Tree Species of Africa

Climate change is now known to be among major threats to species
survival and the integrity of the ecosystems all over the world. In
Africa, it is projected that 25–42% of plants and animal species
population could be threatened and could lose 90% of their native
environments by 2085 if the global warming exceeds 1.5–2.5 °C
(Busby et al. 2012; IPCC,2007).

Forests and woodlands cover an area of about 675 million hectares,

or 23% of Africa’s land area and about 17% of global forest area
(FAO, 2011). The five countries with the largest forest area are the
Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, Angola, Zambia and
Mozambique; together they contain 55% of the forest area on the
continent (ibid.). The proportion of the land area covered by forests
in the various sub regions is: Central Africa (43.6%), Southern
Africa (31%), East Africa (20.8%), West Africa (14.3%) and North
Africa (7.2%) (FAO, 2003). Planted forest area is 14.8 million
hectares, and this represents 5% of the global total (FAO, 2009).

East Africa is well known for the higher number of Afromontane

forests called ‘The Eastern Arc Mountains. At least 800 vascular
plant species are endemic, with trees accounting for about 10% of
these (Ngumbau and Luke, 2020; Watuma et al., 2022). Hundreds of
plant species are likewise endangered.

Most Eastern Arc endemics are closed-forest specialists with ancient

connections to species from West Africa, Madagascar, and even
South America and Southeast Asia (Burgess and Butynski, 2007;
Kipkoech et al., 2022).

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The existence of endemic floristic features gives this location a
unique relict ecosystem that preserves the evolutionary history. The
endemic relict flora is thought to be particularly susceptible to
climate changes due to its low biotic complexity, which is typically
followed by marginal extinction at the warm border of the range and
increase at the cold edge (Platts, 2012).

Climatic conditions have changed in the recent years in East Africa

due to natural climate variability and land use change (Maeda et al.,
2011). The temperatures in the region have risen by approximately
1.3˚C since 1960 (Chidumayo et al., 2011). As evidences has shown,
geographic locations of ecosystems, natural habitats, distribution of
many species as well as composition and diversity of forest species
are changing over time (Brockhauset al. n.d.; IPCC 2014a 2014b).
This will lead to losses of significant number of local species; e.g. in
the Inter govern-mental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment
Report (IPCC-AR6).

This is due to the capacity of such models to determine the complex

inter-correlation between species distribution used for future
conditions projection (Jennings et al. 2013; Papeş and Gaubert, 2007;
Tsoar et al. 2007; Martínez-Meyer et al. 2004). ENM is an
application which can provide potential distribution, aid in
conservation planning and their project future behaviour in response
to environment changes (Barve et al. 2011; Thorn et al. 2009;
Peterson 2003, 2006).

According to Peterson and Soberón (2012) ENM was implemented

successfully in prediction following field authentication of presence
species. During these last decade, most research were been done to
improve and found powerful tool to model ecological distribution.

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Maximum entropy approaches have recently been introduced and used
by many research work and have produced excellent results in
comparative tests (Elith et al. 2010; Pearson et al. 2007). According
to Phillips et al. (2006), MaxEnt method called maximum entropy
distribution modelling was used to predict potential suitable habitat
for species (Phillips et al. 2004; Phillips and Dudík 2008a, b; Kumar
and Stohlgren 2009; Warren and Seifert, 2011).

Here, we consider the effects of projected climate changes on

continental-scale distribution of African plant species, changes that
have important implications for nations attempting to meet the
Global Strategy for Plant Conservation (GSPC) targets, especially
since Africa is thought to be the continent most vulnerable to climate
change (IPCC, 2001). We conclude that climate change over the next
50 to 80 years, under current greenhouse gas emissions scenarios,
will have a major impact on the location and nature of African plant
diversity and needs to be taken into account when defining Important
Plant Areas.

2.6. Climate Change and Its Impact in Ethiopia

Ethiopia is a land locked country in North East Africa, located
between approximately E 32°58’00” to E 48°00’00” and 3°25’00” N
to 14°55’00” N. Ethiopia has a land mass of 1,104,300 km2 and
shares borders with Eritrea to the north, Djibouti and Somalia to the
east, Sudan and South Sudan to the west, and Kenya to the south.

The country has a diverse climate and landscape, ranging from

equatorial rainforest with high rainfall and humidity in the south and
southwest, to the Afro-Alpine on the summits of the Simien and Bale
Mountains, to desert-like conditions in the north-east, east and
south-east lowlands. Overall, Ethiopia is considered largely arid, but
exhibits a high variability of precipitation.

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Ethiopia’s climate is generally divided into three zones: 1) the
alpine vegetated cool zones (Dega) with areas over 2,600 meters
above sea level, where temperatures range from near freezing to
16°C; 2) the temperate Woina Dega zones, where much of the
country’s population is concentrated, in areas between 1,500 and
2,500 meters above sea level where temperatures range between 16°C
and 30°C; and 3) the hot Qola zone, which encompasses both tropical
and arid regions and has temperatures ranging from 27°C to 50°C
(Ministry of Environment and Forest ,2015).

Mean annual rainfall distribution is approximately 2,000 mm over

the south-western highlands and less than 300 mm over the south-
eastern and north-eastern lowlands. Temperatures across Ethiopia can
range from –15°c cover the highlands, to above 25°C in the lowlands
(Climate Change Knowledge Portal, 2021)).

According to the UNDP Climate Change Country Profile for Ethiopia,

the mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.1 to 3.1°C
by the 2060s and by 1.5 to 5.1 °C by the 2090s. It is also projected
that there will be a substantial increase in the frequency of days and
nights that are considered 'hot' in the current climate, and a decrease
in the frequency of days and nights that are currently considered
'cold'. It is projected that 'hot' days will occur on 19-40% of days by
the 2060s and 26-69% of days by the 2090s. The number of 'hot' days
and nights will increase most rapidly in the months of July to
September. Cold nights will decrease in frequency more rapidly than
cold days, and are projected by most models to not occur at all by the
2090s (McSweeney et al., 2008).

A potential simultaneous increase in floods poses a serious water

pollution threat, affecting health of wetland and forest ecosystems,
which provide critical ecosystem services for communities in
Ethiopia (CGIAR, 2018).

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The average amount of rainfall decreased gradually in some parts of
the country (Addisu et al. (2015)).

In East hararghe from 2015 significantly less rainfall an overall shift

in seasons experienced continued increases in temperatures and
precipitation. Climate change exacerbated prolonged droughts times
and less rainfall. Interrelation of climate change with other factors is
complex and heavier and more destructive to biodiversity.

Among these biodiversity the natural forest and its composition trees
were highly affected .Distribution, survival rate of newly planted
seedling of tree species of zone were more vulnerable to extreme
climate change observed in the zone( Eat Hararghe Agriculture and
Natural Resource;2016 Report, Oromia Redd+Investment
Coordination Unit ,2021 Report ). Even if, they there is figurative
report in zone and woreda, but there is a big gap in this field nee
further studied and investigation to identify impact of climate change
on distribution of natives tree species of zones.

2.7. Indigenous Tree Species of Ethiopia

Indigenous trees are those native species that have grown in our area
since before European colonization. They are uniquely suited to our
climate. They support our indigenous wildlife and make our
landscape unique. Trees produced from long generations of the same
species, which have all grown in our immediate area, are considered
indigenous. A tree ordered from a mail-order nursery, even of the
same species, was likely grown from seed, or cutting, indigenous to
another part of the country. It could be subtly different because its
parent was adapted to another area (Elizabeth McCoy, 2022).

Indigenous trees are trees that are native to an area. These trees are
integral to the function of an area's ecosystem, providing not only
Oxygen for humans and other animal species,

17
But also increasing the quality of soil and helping with climate
regulation, among many other benefits. South Africa is renowned for
its diverse plant life, with a large number of plant species available
for residents to plant in their garden. This is also encouraged by the
government and ecological organisations, with the planting of exotic
trees discouraged, because planting indigenous trees (South Africa
private property, 2021). The richness and endemicity of the floral
biodiversity have been noted by many authors (Friis et al. 2001;
Thulin 2004; Vivero 2003; Williams et al. 2004).

As recent studied shows the indigenous tree species of Ethiopia is

total as follows; Annona senegalensis, Citrus medica, Cordia
africana, Ekebergia capensis, Erythrina brucei, Millettia ferruginea,
Prunus africana, , Syzygium guineense, Vernonia schimperi, Moringa
stenopetala , Olea species, Acac species, Albizia species, Croton
macrostachyus, Erythrina abyssinica, Ficus species, thonningii, ,
Schefflera abyssinica, Sesbania sesban, Balanites aegyptiaca,
Capparis tomentosa, Carissa edulis, Citrus medica, Grewia bicolour,
Oxytenanthera abyssinica, Dalbergia melanoxylon , Rhamnus
prinoides and Vernonia amygdalina, Celtis africana, and
Dichrostachys cinerea are the main indigenous tree of
Ethiopia(latamo ,2021).In Ethiopia indigenous species are found in
grazing land, natural forest, Farm land, fencing and other plantation
area. They give benefit to the community based on their location and
topography. In Ethiopia, they are the paramount resource base for
smallholder Production systems because they reduce both water and
wind erosion.

Trees also improve soil fertility through nitrogen fixation and the
addition and decomposition of nutrient-rich litter (Ebisa and Abdela,
2017; Latamo and Wondmagegn, 2020).

18
Trees are also a source of fodder, fuel wood, nutrition and serve as
insurance to households through income generation (Negash et al.,
2012; Girmay et al., 2015; Negese and Motuma, 2021; Habte et al.,
2021). They also have an important role in carbon sequestration,
biodiversity conservation and micro-climate amelioration for cash
crops like coffee (Gebrewahid et al., 2018; Yikunoamlak and
Selemawi, 2019; Latamo and Wondmagegn, 2020; Habte et al., 2021).

Indigenous tree species are those from the local area, region or
biotope. They are presumed to be adapted to the specific ecological
conditions predominant at the time of the establishment of the stand
(FAO, 2000). But, this adaptation to specific place is disturbed by
invasive alien. The presence of such species can alter habitat,
profoundly affect food chains with the introduction of new predators,
affect the ability of native species to compete for food and habitat
acquisition due to the lack of local controls (disease and predators)
to keep populations of exotic species in check, promote hybridization
– the interbreeding of native and nonnative species – resulting in the
decline and extinction of native species, and introduce pest species
that can cause disease or parasitic infestations. These impacts all
combine to impact biodiversity by decreasing the number of native
species, thus causing regional homogenization of ecosystems
(Encyclopedia of Ocean Sciences, 2009).

As data from study area of Agriculture and Environmental protection

Authority office shows there was a plenty of full indigenous tree
species composition in natural forest before 1995. Out of woreda
total forest composition 90% hectares was indigenous such as
Juniperus procera, Olea africana, Cordia africana Croton
macrostachyus, Ficus Vasta, Podocarpus.

19
These species distributed on different land of the woreda that need
attention from different concerned body to rehabilitate and study
their distribution, composition, survival rate and adaptation rose
from impact of climate change by anthropogenic factors. In Eastern
part of country we found Cordia africana, Croton macrostachyus,
Erythrina abyssinica and Vernonia amygdalina (Zebene, 2016).

2.8. Distribution and Vulnerability of Indigenous Trees

species of Ethiopia to Climate Change
Over the next century, with expected changes in projected global
climate as a result of increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and other
greenhouse gases (GHGs) (Friend et al., 2014), it is anticipated that
it will lead to loss of individual species with substantial changes in
their optimal conditions for growth and survival (Dirnböck et al.,
2011; Gallagher et al., 2013), especially as climate change
progresses towards the extremes. Most forest tree species are
particularly sensitive to climate change (Hansen and Phillips, 2015).
Unprecedented rapid climate change will not allow immediate
adaptation to newer climatic conditions in their current locations
(Aitken et al., 2008). This will invariably result in profound shifts in
the distribution and abundance of species making them highly
vulnerable, with range of possible impacts so far that have been
underestimated (Lindner et al., 2014; Moritz and Agudo, 2013).

Distribution of tree species a shift in climate conditions could result

in changes in tree species distribution and forest composition.
Climate determines the distribution of tree species and shapes the
composition of forests. Changes in climate drive changes in the
distribution of tree species, which in the long term; can affect
ecosystem processes.

Ethiopia is one of African country which has huge biodiversity has

been identified as one of the African regions containing large

20
proportion of potentially threatened species with extinction
(Stévartetal. 2019).

A recent study on the global distribution of rare land plant species

reported that Ethiopian highlands are hotspots for large number of
rare species (Enquist etal. 2019). Highland uplift forms new habitats
with hydrological, elevation, and topographical heterogeneity, and
has been shown to drive diversification of taxa (Smith etal. 2017).

The migration capacity of trees varies across species but, in general,

a shift in species distribution is a slow process Climate conditions
have already shifted, affecting the distribution of certain tree species
(Gauthier, S., Bernier, P., etal.2014).

Changes in climate affect the distribution of plant species and result

in changes in forest composition. Climate change will result in more
frequent and severe disturbances such as droughts and fire, causing
changes in forest dynamics and increasing stress on trees. Individual
tree species vary in their ability to tolerate stressors, adapt to new
conditions or migrate to a new location. Among, Climate variability
Rainfall (precipitation) is the most important factor that governing
the distribution of indigenous tree species in Ethiopia.

The distribution of rainfall varies greatly across Ethiopia, according

to season, altitude and physical features of the landscape. Clear
annual patterns are evident, although rainfall is extremely variable.

On the eastern side of the Rift Valley, the Hararghe zone usually
receives far less total rainfall than all other areas 800–1200 mm per
year (Environmental and Coffee Forest Forum, 2017).

Therefore, understanding the spatial distribution of climatic niches

of forest tree species and projecting their potential range shifts for
future climate change scenarios is important for assessing their
vulnerability So as to develop appropriate adaptive forest
management strategies under a rapidly changing climate, including
assisted migration (Koralewski et al., 2015).

21
This knowledge will be helpful in the development of future forest
policy and in the establishment of alternative forest management.

2.9. Climate Change Observation in Tree Species

Several studies have recently been carried out on the changes
observed in temperature and rainfall extremes globally and regionally
(Baidya et al., 2008; IPCC et al., 2013; Soltani et al., 2016; IPCC et
al., 2021).

According to the study by the Ethiopian Panel on Climate Change

(EPCC, 2015), over the past 50 years, there has been a warming trend
in the annual temperature of the country. The minimum temperature
is increased by approximately 0.4°C per every ten years and it is
projected that the mean annual temperature will increase with the
range of 0.9 to1.1°C by 2030. Hence, it has a devastating effect on
humans and environmental functions. For instance, the impact of
climate change affected the endemic species of the country.

The country is characterized by seasonal and inter-annual variability

in rainfall and the annual rainfall variability in many parts of the
country remains above 30% (Open University. 2016).

In Ethiopia, the unique environments that support our already

endangered species are becoming less hospitable because climate
change is causing longer dry periods and shrinking of the available
water resources (Open University. 2016) and it has posed potential
major threats to biodiversity. Many forest tree species have shown
hampered or poor regeneration due to human disturbances and
climate change. For instance, dieback of Juniperus procera and Olea
europaea subsp. cuspidata has occurred in Desa’a forest due to
climate change (Aynekulu et al., 2011).

Climate change threatens to shift vegetation and disrupt ecosystems

(Gonzalez et al., 2010). Field observations in boreal, temperate and
tropical ecosystems have detected biome changes in the 20th century.
According to the study of Gonzalez et al. (2010), one-tenth to one-

22
half of global land may be highly to very highly vulnerable to
climate change. Temperate mixed forest, boreal conifer forest, tundra
and alpine biomes show the highest vulnerability, often due to
potential changes in wildfire, while tropical evergreen broadleaf
forest and desert biomes are predicted to be the least vulnerable.
According to (Thuiller et al., 2008), although increasing evidence
shows that recent environmental changes have already triggered
species' range shifts, accurate projections of species' responses to
future environmental changes are difficult to ascertain.

In Ethiopia Existing studies on climate extremes indicate decreasing

tendencies in the frequency of heavy rain and an increasing tendency
in the frequency of temperature extremes. As Reported high
variability and a non-significant trend in rainfall in the pastoral,
agro-pastoral, highlands of the Rift Valley and the eastern highlands
of Ethiopia (Mekasha and Duncan ,2013).

A further complication in projecting climate impact in Ethiopia is

due to exposure to drought and floods which is heavily influenced by
the El Niño/La Niña and the impacts of climate change on these
phenomena are not yet clear (ACCRA, 2011).The Prolong periods of
drought can increase the susceptible of forest to wild fires, a
substantial hazard for biodiversity and for the carbon sequestration
capacity of the ecosystem (Clarke and Pitman, 2011).

As study of (Zelelem and Belay, 2022) the observed spatial and

temporal characteristics of precipitation in Ethiopia climate stations
had shown inconsistency. In Ethiopia several studies have been
conducted to investigate climate trend analysis and trend of extreme
climate events in different parts of country. Changes in climate
extremes are additionally witnessed in several parts of the country.
In the study areas most of the times Climate change evidence is
observed in the forms of; Flooding ,water wild fires migration of
animals and tree species from one place to others and scarcity of
others natural resource in the area for different purposes.

23
People have always adapted to changes in climate through a variety
of means. However, anthropogenic climate change experienced in
recent years is pushing vulnerable populations beyond their capacity
to cope and adapt to the changes they have traditionally dealt with;
and is making more people vulnerable due to their increased
sensitivity to climate change, coupled with limited adaptive capacity
to cope with climate change impacts.

2.10. Ethiopian; Response to Climate Change

Ethiopia is the second-most populous country in Sub-Saharan Africa
with an estimated population of 99.873,0001 million, and population
growth rate of 2.5% (2015), 80% of whom live in rural areas (World
Bank, 2017).This high population growth has its own pressure to the
country when it added with climate change impact .

Because of high population growth, the absolute number of the poor

(about 25 million) has remained largely unchanged over the past
fifteen years (UNDP, 2015).

Ethiopia has been identified as one of the most vulnerable countries

to climate variability and change, and is frequently faced with
climate-related hazards, commonly drought and floods. These hazards
of climate change and variability has serious impact on food security
status of rural people (Solomon et al., 2021).

Arising from occurrence of drought and floods out breaks disease

associated with floods and respiratory disease associated with
droughts and land degradation due to heavy rainfall (National
Adaptation NMA, 2007; Gezie, 2019). Ethiopian adaptive capacities
are constrained by limited livelihood options for majority for the
population, in adequate ability to with stand or absorb disaster.

The Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC, 2015) of

the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia states that the long-term
adaptation goal is to fully integrate adaptation into development
activities. Reducing vulnerability to climate change risks and shocks

24
as well as increasing adaptive capacity is the main solution and the
only key for Ethiopia as climate related disasters increase.

The other solution to overcome the challenges of climate change is a

need for stronger climate change adaptation policies, programmes
and implementations capacity, across sectors, levels of intervention
and actors (MOA 2015; MOWE 2015).

After changing of regime and a new ruling party took power April,
2018 in Ethiopia many reforms and goals were launched. In June
2020, Ethiopia released its ten years development plan.

The New growth plan aims to brings economic growth expecting

10,2% annual growth ,while supporting a climate -resilience green
economy(Ethiopian Monitor,2020b).The plan includes quantified
targets to increase Ethiopia so called greenhouse gas emission
reduction capacity from 92.7MTCo2 to 162.3 MtCo2 by 2030.

In 2019, and as part of the 2016 pledge, Ethiopia 94 launched the

‘Green Legacy Initiative, a national program to plant 20 billion trees
over 95 four years, under the leadership of the prime minister’s
office (Office of the Prime Minister 96 2019; White 2019).

In Study area according to Woreda Administration Report of 2022

many activities were carried out to mitigate the impact of climate
change and variability many measurement were done. In study area
many concerned body and farmers is involved for the response of
climate change impact by adapting different technologies such as
increasing Irrigation, using different agricultural inputs, Crop
diversification, and Agroforestry system application of Green
Legacy.

25
 Greenhouse Gas Concentrations

climate change

Impacts

Response

mitigation Adaptation

Figure 1: Climate Response

Source: UN- Habitat. 2015

2.11. Measuring Distribution of Indigenous Tree Species to

Climate Change
Atmospheric accumulation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas in
particular a doubling of CO2 is linked to the rise in global
temperature estimated at an average of 150c (IPPC, 2018). Increasing
in global temperature has caused shifting species distribution
population structure and abundance towards pole (Schwengross.
2007).

Now a days, a variety of statistical methods are used to predict the

geographical distributions of species, such as BIOCLIM, maximum
entropy (MaxEnt), DOMAIN, genetic algorithm for rule-set
prediction (GARP), generalized linear models (GLM), generalized
additive model (GAM) and discriminant analysis (DA) (Elith et al.,
2006; Guisan et al., 2007; Peterson, 2007; Wisz et al., 2008;
ZareChahouki et al., 2012).

26
Different modeling approaches have the potential to yield
substantially different predictions, so the choice of the right
statistical method in a specific modeling context is an important
issue (Segurado and Araújo, 2004; PiriSahragard and ZareChahouki,
2015). With multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS),
nonparametric multiplicative regression (NPMR) and logistic
regression tree (LRT).

Niche model, also known as species distribution model, is a method

of using known species distribution data and relevant environmental
variables to build a model according to certain algorithm rules, judge
the ecological needs of species, and project the calculation results to
different time and space to predict the potential distribution area of
species (Zhu et al., 2013).

The development of niche model began with the development and

application of BIOCLIM model (Booth et al., 2014). Subsequently,
Ecological-Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA), Maximum Entropy
(MaxEnt), Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Generalized Addition
Model (GAM), Classification and Regression Tree (CART), Multiple
Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS), Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set
Prediction (GARP), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and other
models (Xu et al., 2015). Among them, MaxEnt model has short
operation time, stable operation results (Phillips et al., 2006) and
high consistency between the predicted coverage and the actual
distribution range of species (Booth et al., 2014; Ma et al., 2019).

MaxEnt model is the most widely used niche model with good
prediction effect (Giovanelli et al., 2008; Phillips and Dudik, 2008;
Wang et al., 2020), which has been widely used in species evolution
history (Jiang et al., 2016; Wang et al., 2021), impact of climate
change on species distribution (Ren et al., 2020),

27
Endangered species protection (Wu et al., 2021), plant introduction
and cultivation (Wang et al., 2021), and other fields.

Several notable attempts have been made by using various statistical

models to predict the spatial distribution of species. On the other
hand, species distribution modeling based on machine learning
algorithms have become increasingly popular in the recent years,
some of them include models based on artificial neural networks
(Pearson et al., 2002), ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA)
(Hirzel et al., 2002), maximum entropy (MaxEnt) (Phillips et al.,
2006), classification and regression trees (CART) (Vayssières et al.,
2000), boosted regression trees (BRT) and random forests (RF)
(Mainali et al., 2015b). Of these wide arrays of methods available,
MaxEnt is often described as the most popular method as it easily
handles complex interactions between predictor and response
variables (Elith et al., 2011), and is often less sensitive to small
sample sizes (Wisz et al., 2008).

MaxEnt’s user-interface model is known for its simplicity and easier

implementation, whilst typically outperforming other methods based
on predictive accuracy (Merow et al., 2013); thereby, making it the
most used ecological niche-based model. Based on presence records,
MaxEnt estimates the probability of presence of any species by
randomly generating background points by finding the maximum
entropy of the species distribution (Phillips et al., 2006). MaxEnt is
a general-purpose method for making predictions or inferences from
incomplete information (Pearson et al., 2007).

The MaxEnt probability distribution has many advantages such as

clear mathematical definition working with positive only examples
and usability of both continuous and categorical data, so it can
incorporate interactions between different variables and is therefore
suitable to analysis (Phillips et al., 2006).

28
The other model in distribution of tree species distribution modeling
is bio climate envelope modeling approach which has its foundations
in ecological niche theory. Hutchinson (1957) defined the
fundamental ecological niche as comprising those environmental
conditions within which a species can survive and grow. The
definition of a bio climate envelope, as with Hutchinson’s definition
of the fundamental ecological niche, also does not include the
influence of biotic effects such as competition for resources. The
distinction between biotic and abiotic limitations on a species’
distribution can be formalized in the distinction between fundamental
and realized niches (Hutchinson, 1957).

This study will be conducted to assess the capability of Maximum

Entropy model to predict the spatial distribution of plant species
habitats and to analyses the ecological relationship between range
and forest plant species distribution and their environment in East
hararghe rangelands and forest land of Meta woreda.

Therefore, use of species distribution modeling (SDM) provides an

important basis for the understanding of changes in potential tree
species distribution especially for species with scarce available data
(Booth, 2018; Chiri, 2019).The selection of alternative tree species is
a major adaptation strategy for increased forest ecosystem resilience
(Hurl et al.,2020).

29
2.3. Empirical Part of the Study

2.3.1. Conceptual Frame Work

In a climate change framework, forest management and planning
efforts must be oriented toward maintaining and improving
biodiversity and ecosystem services, assuring the long-term
availability of forest resources and their biological functioning
(O’Hara, 2016; Puettmann et al., 2015).
The development of a sustainable forest management strategy (SFM)
is a very urgent topic in forestry and environmental sciences for
human well-being (Nocentini et al., 2017; MacDicken et al., 2015)
and for carbon sequestration purposes (Luyssaert et al., 2018;
Bellassen and Luyssaert, 2018). Information about the ecological
requirements of di fferent tree species are fundamental for its
implementation(Fady et al.,2016; Roces-Díaz et al.,2014; Pecchi et
al.,2019) allowing conservation plans, ecological restoration actions
as( Olthoff et al.,2016; Marchi and Ducci, 2018 ; Hampe and
Petit ,2005; Zhang et al.,2017) ecological modeling of the spatial
distribution of living organisms, both animals and plants, is currently
known as Ecological Niche modeling (ENM) or Species Distribution
Modeling (SDM).

These techniques can be used to link the spatial distribution of a

target species with some ecological drivers (climate, soil data, etc.)
often extracted in a GIS environment. The gathered information is
then used as input data for mathematical models where the ecological
information is used as predictor (i.e., independent variable).

30
 (3) Species (2) Species habitat
(1) Vegetatio models
Response
n model

Vegetation (4) Target Species

Distributio values Distributio
n

(5) Evaluate (6)Simulate

current optimal
condition conditions

(7) (8) Potentially

Problematic suitable areas
areas

(7) Priority areas for

Habitat management

Figure 2: conceptual framework

Sources: Adapted
from Braunisch1, Patthey and Raphae, 2016 Adoption by Researcher

31
Conceptual framework underlying the approach applied in the present
study, showing aims (superscript), methodological steps (ovals) and
outputs (rectangles). The modeled vegetation types (1) are used as
predictors in species habitat model (2). From the species response
curves (3), target values for optimal vegetation configuration are
derived (4) which are used to evaluate the current vegetation
configuration (5) and simulate potentially suitable habitat when
assuming optimal conditions (6). The resulting areas with presently
unsuitable conditions (7) within potentially suitable areas (8) are
identified as priority areas for management interventions (9). White
symbols and dashed arrows illustrate the commonly applied
procedure of intersecting the outcome of two independent parallel
models; novel interlinking steps are illustrated in grey. Bold-framed
symbols represent management-relevant outcomes.

32
 3. DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA AND RESEARCH
METHODS
This chapter outlines the research design and methodology.
It presents the study design, sample selection and size. The
chapter also presents the study methodology and data
analysis.

3.1. Descriptions of the Study Area

The study will be conducted in Meta woreda, East Hararghe Zone;
Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia is one of the largest regional state
17 zones, 245 Woreda and36 town administrations with 6500 kebeles.
Based on CSA data, estimate of 28,067,000 people for July 2008 and
38 million in Mid2018 indicates that its population size is also the
largest.

Eastern Hararghe is one of the 20 administrative zones of the Oromia

regional state. It is located in the Eastern part of the country about
600 km of the capital, Addis Ababa. East Hararghe Zone is
geographically located 90° 42' 41" North latitude and 42° 00' 9" East
longitudes. The zone is bordered on the southwest by Bale, on the
west by West Hararghe Zone, on the north by Dire Dawa and on the
north and east by the Somali Region. The Administrative center of
this zone is Harar. The capital town of the Zone is Harar, which is
located at a distance of 526 km East of Addis Ababa. The area
coverage of the Zone is 2,260,000 ha (22,600 km2), comprising of 20
districts with a total population of 2,723,850

Meta district is one of 20 administrative districts found in East

hararghe zone of the Oromia. Meta woreda is geographically located
9 0 ° 1 0 ' 0 0 " a n d 9 0 ° 3 0 ' 0 0 " N o r t h l a t i t u d e a n d 4 1 °3 0 ' 0 0 " a n d 4 1 ° 4 5 '
00" East longitudes.

33
The capital town of woreda is chelenko. Chelenko is located at a
distance of 445kilometer from capital city of Ethiopia Addis abeba
and 56 kilometer from the zone town of harar.

Based on CSA data the total population estimated 293384 which

139442 male and 153942 is female. This woreda is highly populated
woreda. The town population of the woreda is 70758 out of this total
male is 33964 and female is 36794.The Altitude range of Meta
District is 1400 meter and 2850meter above sea level.
Topographically, the district has all slope range from very flat 2%-
5% to steep morethan25%.

According to land Administration office report, woreda has different

land use land cover ,as follows, cultivated land cover
20428.5hectare,forestland 4924.02 hectares, Greening land 389.76
hectares, Community services land 4656 hectares and rock and shrubs
land 5551,79(Meta Woreda land Administration office, 2021).

The Woreda has slope range of sandy soil 33%,Sandy loam soil
32%,Heavy clay soil 35% and average land holding ration hectares
0.6(Meta Woreda Agricultural office,2007).

Majority of woreda population depend on agriculture. The major

Agricultural activity in the area is mixed farming system. The
dominant food crops grown in the study areas are Sorghum, Maize,
Wheat, Barley, Pulses, Potato and Tomato in their order of
importance. Khat and Vegetables are the known cash crops. Major
livestock reared in the woreda are Cattle, goat and sheep are among
the livestock species reared by the community.

34
Figure 3: Map of study Area

3.2.1. Research Design

Research design is defined as a framework of methods and
techniques chosen by a researcher to combine various components
of research in a reasonably logical manner so that the research
problem is efficiently handled. It provides insights about “how” to
conduct research using a particular methodology. Every researcher
has a list of research questions which need to be assessed – this
can be done with research design. The sketch of how research
should be conducted can be prepared using research design
(Blaikie, 2000).

35
Different textbooks place different meanings on research design.
Some authors consider research design as the choice between
qualitative and quantitative research methods. Others argue that
research design refers to the choice of specific methods of data
collection and analysis. In your dissertation you can define
research design as a general plan about what you will do to answer
the research question (Akhtar and Md, 2016).

So, for this study a field survey will conduct over the study
catchment to identify and geographically record presence
localities of the target species. Since, Environmental predictors
impose constraints on the geographic distribution of the species
and represent our ecological assumption that these features
characterize the major environmental factors that limit the spatial
distribution of the species (Phillips et al. 2006). Thus, the
ultimate goal of species distribution and habitat modeling is to
estimate the inhabited and potentially suitable environmental
conditions for the target species. This suggests the need for a
careful selection of relevant environmental variables in order to
generate reliable predictions (Phillips et al., 2017).

Moreover, the researcher will use Quantitative research

approaches for correlational to examines the relationship between
tree species, to examine characteristics of a particular situation in
the study area and examines cause and effect, quantitative
research is for large sample size (Wilson et al., 2022).

36
 3.3. Sampling Techniques and Sample Selection Size
To select the sample woreda and kebele multistage sampling
procedure were employed. At the first stage Meta woreda selected
purposively because the woreda is prone/vulnerable impact of
climate change. At the second stage, there are 42 kebeles in the
Meta woreda. The 42 kebeles was stratified into three agro-
ecological zones such as Dega, Woina Dega and Kola.

Out of the three agro ecological zone four kebele that represent
those agro ecological zones such as Ifa jalala, dhoke2, Hakabas,
and Halay bala selected as purposively sample study area

3.4. Data collection

For this study, the researcher will use both primary and secondary
data sources. In the study area of selected kebeles, 50 species
locations points with a distance between points larger than or
equal to 1 km will be gathered. The data will collected using in
decimal degrees, Garmin 72H GPS from the identified of
indigenous tree species occurrence sites. Occurrence points use for
this study will obtain from two sources: (1) records of specimen
collection of the Ethiopian biodiversity institute; and (2) the
Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF; www.gbif.org.
The 19 bioclimatic data with a 1 km resolution and altitude will be
downloaded from WorldClim-Global data. Bioclimatic variables
are of biological significance in determining the environmental
niche of species (Yi et al., 2016).
These bioclimatic variables can be downloaded from WorldClim
version2.1 (Fick and Hijmans, 2017). The soil data of study will
be taken from the UNESCO soil map (http://www.fao.org/soils-
portal/en/) while the slope and aspect will be derived from the
Digital Elevation Model (http://ned.usgs.gov).

37
Secondary source of information will be reviewed to supplement
the primary sources of information. Various documents available
at Regional, Zone, woreda and kebele levels will be reviewed to
generate secondary source of information.

Moreover, books, journal, articles, different Government and Non-

Government documents, publications and academic research papers
will be reviewed to understand the more about impact of climate
change on distributions of indigenous tree species to enrich the
findings.

3.4.1. Field Observation

Field observation will be conducted in each selectable four
kebeles by the researcher, together with natural resource
management experts, DAs and model farmers to take GPS point in
the site

3.4.2. Data Collection Tools

Data will be collected collected from the sample point from the
selected kebeles and site through GPS, Recording notes, Compass,
Clinometer and others.

38
3.5. Data Analysis
Geographic location map will be made through the Geographical
Information System (GIS) using tools ArcGIS10.8 will use for
analysis by coupling the environmental variables and the presence
data of the species. The geo reference longitude and latitude
variables can be analyzed with ArcGIS10.8 version software and
duplicate data should be eliminated because it can cause error on
the result.

The maximum entropy method (MaxEnt) is an effective algorithm

for modeling the ecological and spatial distribution of species.
The coordinates will export to CVS format and the climatic
variables in ASCII format, producing a Comma-Separated Value
(csv) File from Species Occurrence Coordinates in an Excel
Spreadsheet and to convert environmental raster layers to ASCII
format. All environmental layers must be in ASCII format to run
MaxEnt both integrated into MaxEnt software version 3.4.4 for
further analysis (Phillips, 2012).

Earlier studies have revealed how diverse environmental variables

and parameters used in niche models affect the results (Kriticos e
t al., 2013; Sheppard, 2013). The most influential variables (Bio1,
Bio2, Bio3, Bio4, Bio6, Bio13, Bio15, Bio 16, and Bio17.Bio18
and Bio19) are the layers use for this study. These layers have
corresponding environmental characteristics which include Annual
Mean Temperature, Max Temperature of the Warmest Month,
Precipitation of the Driest Month, etc. The full list of codes and
their bioclimatic variables will use for further explanation and
interpretation of MaxEnt’s outputs. MaxEnt models are usually
based on World climate data that will obtain by interpolating the
average monthly climate data of planet weather station (Fick,
2017).

39
To estimate the impacts of the future climate on indigenous tree
species General Circulation Model (GCM) will use. We will assess
changes in suitable habitat ranges in the 2050s (2041–2060) and
2070s (2061 2080) climate conditions in RCP6.0 (the intermediate
scenario for GHG emissions) and RCP8.5 (the highest scenario for
GHG emissions) will use. The areas of suitability changes for the
current and future will be analyzed under two categories to
identify the areas of suitable and none suitable using ArcGIS 10.8.
Species occurrence data will partition using the jackknife method
since the number of occurrence records was small (<245) (Pearson
e t al., 2007). The jackknife is a particular resampling method that
aims primarily at the calculation of the bias and the variance of
estimates, without making very restrictive distributional
assumptions. In Jackknife partitioning, species occurrence records
will partition such that the number of bins is equal to the number
of occurrences (Muscarella e t al., 2014).

The overall MaxEnt model performance will be evaluated based on

the threshold-independent area under the receiver operating
characteristic curve (AUC) (Liu e t al., 2005). AUC ranges The
AUC is an efficient autonomous threshold index that can assess a
model's ability to distinguish presence from absence.
The jackknife test (systematically excluding each variable) will
use to determine which variables will be the most important to the
distribution of the species (Yang et al., 2013).

Maximum training sensitivity plus specicity logistic threshold

(Liu e t al., 2013) values will obtain from model results will use
to categorize the continuous suitability maps from MaxEnt into
suitable and unsuitable areas for the species.

To estimate the impacts of reasonable future climate conditions on

indigenous tree species and considering the availability of the
data, The researcher will use Representative Concentration

40
Pathways (RCPs) under the General Circulation Model (GCM)
/The GCM will be selected based on its consistent use across the
study area, particularly within sub-Saharan Africa (Hudson and
Ruane, 2013 ; Rosenzweig et al., 2013).
.

41
 4. TIME SCHEDULE
N Activities Times/Months
o
J F M A M J J A S
2023 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 202 2024 20
4 24

1 Proposal
Submission
2 Proposal
Defense
3 Revising the
proposal
4 Design Data
collection
5 Pilot Test
6 Data Collection
7 Data
Organization
8 Thesis Writing
9 Submitting
thesis
1 Writing the
0 final report
1 Defense Thesis
1
Table 1 : Time Schedule

42
 5. BUDGET BREAK DOWN

Number Materials Measurem Quantit Price Total

ent y of
one

1 Printing Paper Dasta 5 800 4000

2 Flash memory 16 Pieces 1 500 500
GB
3 Photo copy Pieces 1500 5 7500
4 Pen Packet 1 800 800
5 Note book Pieces 3 350 1050
13850

Table 2 : Stationary

43
 5.1. Running Cost

Table 3: Running Cost

Number Person Number Purpose Cost Total Total

Involved in the of Study Day Cost
study person Area
involve
d
1 Researcher 1 -Ifa Collect 500 10 5000
jalala data
-Haqabas
2 Assistance 1 Chelenko Designin 400 10 4000
Expert g sample
plot
3 Local farmers 2 -Ifa -Helping 300 6 1800
jalala in
-Haqabas Designin
g sample
-Assist in
local
materials
providing
such as
Total 10800

44
5.2. Budget summary

Number Main Topic of Budget for the study

Budget
1 Materials/stationary 13850
2 Running Cost 9200
3 Contingency 500
Total 23550

Table 4: Budget Summary

Source of Budget; Self

45
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.

APPROVAL SHEET
SCHOOL OF GEOGRAPHY AND ENVIRONMENTAL
STUDIES COLLAGE OF SOCIAL SCINCE AND
HUMANITIES
Impact of Climate Change on Distribution of Indigenous Tree
Species in Case of Meta Woreda East Hararghe

Submitted by
Usmael Ahmed
___________________ --------------- --------------
Name of Student Signature Date

Approved by

1___________________ --------------- ------------

Name of Advisor Signature Date

2___________________ --------------- ------------

Name of Co-Advisor Signature Date

3___________________ --------------- -------------

Name of Chairman Signature Date

4___________________ --------------- -------------

Name of Dean, SGS Signature Date

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53