Chapter 6: Random Variables & Probability Models

❑ A numerical variable whose value depends on the outcome of a chance experiment is called a random
variable.

❑ In the examples from chapter 7, we were looking at the distribution of discrete data sets. A discrete random
variable will have a collection of isolated points on the number line. For all of our examples, we have had a
finite number of values, and each value has had an assigned probability.

❑ A continuous random variable can take on any value in an interval of numbers on the number line.

Example: Discrete or Continuous?

a) The number of students who receive some form of financial aid.

b) The weight of an adult female.

Probability Distribution of a Discrete Random Variable: A mathematical description of a random

❑ Properties of a Discrete Probability Distribution

1. 0 ≤ P( A ) ≤ 1 For all events A

2.  Pi =1

Example #1: A bag contains 3 red marbles and eight blue marbles. Two marbles are drawn from the bag, without
replacement. Let X = the number of red marbles selected. Construct a probability distribution for the number of
red marbles drawn. Show all your work.

Example #2: You draw a card from a deck. If you get a red card, you win nothing. If you get a spade, you win $5.
For any club, you win $10, plus an extra $20 for the ace of clubs. Let X = the amount you win at this game.
Construct a probability distribution for the amount you win.

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Mean and standard deviation of a discrete random variable

Mean (expected value): E ( X ) =  =  xp( x )

 
standard deviation:  =   ( x −  ) 2 p ( x)  = x 2
p( x) −  2
 

Examples

1. Air America wants to overbook flights in order to reduce the numbers of vacant seats. For a certain flight, the
probabilities of 0, 1, 2, or 3 vacant seats are .705, .115, .090, and .090 respectively. Find the mean and standard
deviation for the number of vacant seats.

2. An electronics store sells a particular brand of computer notebook. Let X be the

a) What is the probability that three computer notebooks are sold in a day?

b) Find the probability that no more than two computer notebooks are sold in a day.

c) Find the mean and standard deviation for the above distribution.

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Binomial Distributions

Properties of the Binomial:

1. There are a fixed number (n) of trials or observations.

2. The (n) observations or trials are independent. If this assumption is violated, it is still ok to proceed as long as
the sample is smaller than 10% of the population.

3. There are two possible outcomes for each “trial”, these can be classified as “success” and “failure.”

4. The Probability of Success is called p and is the same for each observation. The Probability of Failure is the
compliment q= 1 - p. Make sure to write your probabilities of success and failure as decimals.

A binomial random variable, X, is the count of successful outcomes of a binomial experiment.

DEFINITION: Binomial Distribution- The distribution of the count X of successes in the binomial setting with
parameters n and p. The parameter n is the number of observations, and p is the probability of a success on any
one observation. The possible values of X are the whole numbers from 0 to n.

Notation: X ~ B( n , p )

Example #1: Suppose a student takes a quiz that consists of four multiple choice questions. Each question has
four options. Unfortunately the student has not reviewed the material and has to guess on each question. Let X =
the number of questions the student guesses correctly.
a. Is X binomial?
n= p= q= X ~ B( , )

b. Calculate P(X = 0)

c. Calculate P(X = 4)

d. Calculate P(X = 2)

Binomial Probabilities
If X has a binomial distribution with n independent observations (or trials) and probability p of success on each
observation, the possible values of X are 0,1,2,…n. If k is any one of these values, the binomial probability is

P ( X = k )= n C k q n−k
k p

The number of ways of arranging k successes among n observations is this binomial coefficient
(In calculator found under math > prb > nCr)
n!
Ck =
k!(n − k )!
n

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Binomial mean and standard deviation
If a count X has the binomial distribution with n observations, and probability of success p, the mean and standard
deviation of X are
 x = np  x = np(1 − p)

Example #2:A San Diego interviewer has found that one in five of the people approached will agree to take part
in her survey on drug abuse. An interviewer approaches 7 people at random:

a. Describe the distribution of X, the number that will agree to take part in the survey.

b. Find the probability that exactly four will agree to an interview.

c. Find the probability that at most 2 will agree to an interview.

Example #3: Twenty-five percent of the customers entering a grocery store between 5pm and 7pm use an express
check out. Suppose we randomly select 5 customers.
a. Describe the distribution of X= number of customers that use the express check out.

b. What is the probability that exactly 3 of the 5 customers will use the express check out?

c. What is the probability that at least 2 of the 5 customers selected will use the express check out?

d. Calculate the mean and standard deviation for this distribution.

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