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Part 1 MCQ’s 30% ( Circle Your Choice)

(5pts) Problem 1
A jury consists of …ve men and seven women.Three jury members are selected at random for an interview.
Find the probability that all three are men.

A) 0:66

B) 0:035

C) 0:41

D) 0:021

E) 0:045

Solution
5 7
3 0 10
12 = = 0:045: Answer is E)
3
220
(5pts) Problem 2
The probability that a visit to a particular car dealer results in neither buying a second-hand car nor a
Japanese car is 55%. Of those coming to the dealer, 25% buy a second-hand car and 30% buy a Japanese
car. What is the probability that a visit leads to buying a second-hand Japanese car?

A) 0:1

B) 0:055

C) 0:35

D) 0:023

E) 0:065
Solution

P (A \ B) = P (A) + P (B) P (A [ B)
= P (A) + P (B) [1 P ((A [ B)c )]
= P (A) + P (B) [1 P ((Ac \ B c ))]
= 0:25 + 0:30 [1 0:55] = 0:1 Answer is A)

Remark. There was a typo in the exam paper. Answer A) is 0:1 instead of 0:01: To compensate the
time that the students spent on this question, I decided to give the students the 5 marks regardless of
what answer they choose and to give one extra mark to the one who showed the work and solved it
correctly.

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 (5pts) Problem 3 There is a screening test for prostate cancer that looks at the level of PSA (prostate-
speci…c antigen) in the blood. There are a number of reasons besides prostate cancer that a man can have
elevated PSA levels. In addition, many types of prostate cancer develop so slowly that that they are never
a problem. Unfortunately there is currently no test to distinguish the di¤erent types and using the test is
controversial because it is hard to quantify the accuracy rates and the harm done by false positives. For
this problem we’ll call a positive test a true positive if it catches a dangerous type of prostate cancer. We’ll
assume the following numbers: Rate of prostate cancer among men over 50 = 0.0005 True positive rate for
the test = 0.9 False positive rate for the test = 0.01 Let T be the event a man has a positive test and let D
be the event a man has a dangerous type of the disease. Find P (D j T ):

A) 0:005

B) 0:089

C) 0:043

D) 0:053

E) 0:019
Solution
We are given
P (T j D) = 0:9 ) P (T c j D) = 0:1; P (T j Dc ) = 0:01 ) P (T c j Dc ) = 0:99:
P (D) = 0:0005 ) P (Dc ) = 1 0:0005 = 0:9995
Now we can use Bayes’rule to answer the questions:
P (T j D) P (D)
P (D j T ) =
P (T j D) P (D) + P (T j Dc ) P (Dc )
0:9 0:0005
= = 0:043
0:9 0:0005 + 0:01 0:9995
Answer is C)

(5pts) Problem 4
A Statistics department purchased 24 hand calculators from a dealer in order to have a supply on hand
for tests for use by students who forget to bring their own. Although the department was not aware of
this, …ve of the calculators were defective and gave incorrect answers to calculations. When a test is being
written, students who have forgotten their own calculators are allowed to select one of the Department’s (at
random). Suppose at the …rst test of the term, four students forgot to bring their calculators. What is the
probability that exactly one of these students selects a defective calculator?

A) 0:455 96

B) 0:67675

C) 0:04431

D) 0:1227

E) 0:33661
Solution
Let X the number of students, out of 4, who select defective calculators, then X is a hypergeometric
random variable with N = 24; k = 5; and n = 4:
5 24 5
1 4 1 1615
P (X = 1) = = = 0:455 96 Answer is A)
24 3542
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 (5pts) Problem 5
At a ketchup factory the amounts which go into bottles of ketchup are supposed to be normally distributed
with mean 36 oz. and standard deviation 0.1 oz. Once every 30 minutes a bottle is selected from the
production line, and its contents are noted precisely. If the amount of the bottle goes below 35.8 oz. or
above 36.2 oz., then the bottle will be declared out of control. If the process is in control, meaning = 36
oz. and = 0:1 oz, …nd the probability that a bottle will be declared out of control.

A) 0:0228

B) 0:9722

C) 0:0551

D) 0:7781

E) 0:0456
Solution
The process is out of control if

P (X < 35:8) or P (X > 36:2):

a. We are given X is normally distributed with = 36 and = 0:1.

We compute the probability:

35:08 36 36:2 36
P (X < 35:8) + P (X > 36:2) = P (z < ) + P (z > )
0:1 0:1
= P (z < 2) + P (z > 2)
= 0:0228 + (1 0:9772) = 0:0456: Answer is E)

(5pts) Problem 6
A lab network was attacked by a computer virus. This virus enters each computer with probability 0.4,
independently of other computers. A computer manager checks the lab computers, one after another, to see
if they were infected by the virus. What is the probability that she has to test at least 6 computers to …nd
the …rst infected one?

A) 0:044

B) 0:031

C) 0:071

D) 0:122

E) 0; 006
Solution
We need to …nd P (X = 6),where X is the number of computers tested until the …rst infected computer
is found. This is the number of trials required to see the …rst success, therefore, X has Geometric (p = 0:4)
distribution.
P (X = 6) = (0:4)(1 0:4)5 = 0:031 Answer is B)

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Part 2 Written Questions (70%)

(12pts) Problem 1
A factory production line is manufacturing bolts using three machines, A, B and C.Of the total output,
machine A is responsible for 25%, machine B for 35% and machine C for the rest. It is known from previous
experience with the machines that 5% of the output from machine A is defective, 4% from machine B and
2% from machine C. A bolt is chosen at random from the production line and found to be defective. What
is the probability that it came from
(a) machine A
(b) machine B
(c) machine C?
Solution
D = fBolt is defectiveg
A = fBolt is from machine Ag
Let
B = fBolt is from machine Bg
C = fBolt is from machine Cg
We know that

P (A) = 0:25; P (B) = 0:35 and P (C) = 0:4

P (D j A) = 0:05; P (D j B) = 0:04 and P (D j C) = 0:02 (3pts)
Using Bayes’s Theorem, we have
(a)

P (D j A) P (A)
P (A j D) =
P (D j A) P (A) + P (D j B) P (B) + P (D j C) P (C)
0:05 0:25
= = 0:362 32 (3pts)
0:05 0:25 + 0:04 0:35 + 0:02 0:4
Similarly
(b)

P (D j B) P (B)
P (B j D) =
P (D j A) P (A) + P (D j B) P (B) + P (D j C) P (C)
0:04 0:35
= = 0:405 80 (3pts)
0:05 0:25 + 0:04 0:35 + 0:02 0:4
and
(c)

P (D j C) P (C)
P (C j D) =
P (D j A) P (A) + P (D j B) P (B) + P (D j C) P (C)
0:02 0:4
= = 0:231 88 (3pts)
0:05 0:25 + 0:04 0:35 + 0:02 0:4

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 (20pts) Problem 2
The following data represent the 9-month salary of faculty members (to the nearest thousand dollars)
in the year 1999-00:

(a) Find the …rst, second and third quartiles.

(b) Find the 70th percentile.
(c) Construct a dot plot and a box plot.
(d) Construct a Histogram with 6 classes.

Solution
(a) To …nd the quartiles, we need to …rst put the data in order from smallest to largest:
40 , 44 , 46 , 50 , 50 , 50 , 51 , 51 , 52 , 52 , 52 , 53 , 54 , 56 , 57 , 57 , 57 , 60 , 61 , 61 , 61 , 62 , 63 , 65
, 65 , 66 , 67 , 68 , 70 , 70 , 72 , 73 , 75 , 76 , 80 , 97
There are 36 observations.
Q1 = 52; Median (Q2) = 60:5; and Q3 = 67:5: (2pts + 2pts + 2pts)
(b) n = 36 and p = 0:7
np = (36) (0:7) = 25:2: We round up to 26
The 70th percentile is the data in the 26th position
70th percentile = 66 (3pts)
(c) Dot Plot

(3pts)
Box Plot

(4pts)

(d)

(4pts)

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 (12pts) Problem 3
Maria is a plumber who works for 3 di¤erent employers. Employer A pays her $120 a day, employer B
pays her $70 dollars a day, and employer C pays her $180 a day. She works for whoever calls her …rst. The
probability that employer A calls her …rst is 0.4, the probability that employer B calls …rst is 0.2, and the
probability that employer C calls her …rst is 0.3 (the probability that no one calls is 0.1).
(a) What is the expected income of Maria per day?
(b) What is the standard deviation of the daily income of Maria?
Solution
(a) Let X = Income of Maria on a day.
So, X takes values 0, 120, 70, 180. The probability function is given by

P (X = 0) = 0:1; P (X = 120) = 0:4; P (X = 70) = 0:2; P (X = 180) = 0:3:

In a tabular form, the distibution of Maria’s income is given by

x 0 120 70 180
(4pts)
P (X = x) 0:1 0:4 0:2 0:3

E (X) = 0 0:1 + 120 0:4 + 70 0:2 + 180 0:3

= 116 (4pts)

(b)
2
Var(X) = E X2 [E (X)]
2
= 02 0:1 + 1202 0:4 + 702 0:2 + 1802 0:3 (116)
= 3004:0
p p
SD (X) = Var(X) = 3004 = 54: 809 (4pts)

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 (12pts) Problem 4
A) Suppose that an engineer examined 6 concrete structures to determine which ones are in poor condi-
tion. The probability that a given structure is in poor condition is p = 0:2. If X is the number of structures
that are in poor condition,
Find the probability that at most two of the six structures are found to be in poor condition.
Solution
X is a binomial random variable with n = 6 and p = 0:2

P (X 2) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2)
6 0 6 0 6 1 6 1 6 2 6 2
= (0:2) (1 0:2) + (0:2) (1 0:2) + (0:2) (1 0:2)
0 1 2
= 0:901 12 (6pts)

B) To ensure quality at a large construction project where 200 concrete cylinders are to be taken daily,
the acceptance criterion requires that from a 15 random sample testing of these cylinders, at least 14 must
have a speci…ed minimum crushing strength. The cylinders are provided by a plant where the 97% of the
concrete meet the standards.
If X is the number of cylinders from the sample not meeting the standards, what is the likelihood that
the material from this plant will be rejected?
Solution
The proportion of defective cylinders from the plant is p = 1 0:97 = 0:03:
If X is the number of cylinders from the sample not meeting the standards, then X is a hypergeometric
random variable with N = 200; n = 15 and k = 6 = (200 0:03) : We need to …nd P (X > 1):

P (X > 1) = 1 P (X 1)
= 1 [P (X = 0) + P (X = 1)]
6 194 6 194
0 15 1 14
1 = 0:066 21 (6pts)
200 200
15 15

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 (14pts) Problem 5
The probability distribution function of the age of babies, X years, being brought to a post natal clinic
is given by
3
f (x) = 4 x (2 x) ; 0 < x < 2
:
0 otherwise
(a) If 60 babies are brought in on a particular day how many are expected to be under 8 month old?
(b) Find the mean age of babies brought to the clinic.
(c) Find the variance of X.

Solution
2
(a) Eight months = year, so
3
Z 2
2 3 3
P X< = x (2 x) dx
3 0 4
7
= = 0:259 26 (3pts)
27
2 Expected number under 8 month old
P X< =
3 60
7
Expected number under 8 month old = 60 = 15: 556 ' 16 babies (2pts)
27
(b)
Z 1
E(X) = xf (x)dx
1
Z 2
3 2
= x (2 x) dx
0 4
= 1 (4pts)

(c)
2
Var (X) = E(X 2 ) [E(X)]
Z 1
2
= x2 f (x)dx [E(X)]
1
Z 2
3 3
= x (2 x) dx 12
0 4
6 1
= 1 = = 0:2 (5pts)
5 5