Week 3

Ex: Suppose that a pair of dice is cast. Let A and B be two events. A is defined as a summation
greater than 9 and B is defined as a summation greater than 7.
A={(5,5),(6,4),(4,6),(5,6),(6,5),(6,6)}
B={(4,4),(2,6),(6,2),(3,5),(5,3),(3,6),(6,3),(5,4),(4,5), (4,6), (6,4),(5,5),(5,6),(6,5),(6,6)}
𝐴 ⊂ 𝐵 ⇔ 𝑃(𝐴) < 𝑃(𝐵)
Theorem: Let A be any event denoted by A ⊂S, 𝑃(𝐴) ≤ 1
Ex: Suppose that a pair of dice is cast. Let A be an event. A is defined as a summation greater
than 9.
A={(5,5),(6,4),(4,6),(5,6),(6,5),(6,6)}
6
𝑃(𝐴) = ≤1
36
Theorem: Let A and 𝐴𝐶 be events in S. 𝐴𝐶 is called the complement of A. 𝑃(𝐴𝐶 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴)
Ex: Suppose that a pair of dice is cast. Let A be an event. A is defined as a summation greater
than 7. What is the probability of 𝑃(𝐴𝐶 )?
A={(4,4),(2,6),(6,2),(3,5),(5,3),(3,6),(6,3),(5,4),(4,5), (4,6), (6,4),(5,5),(5,6),(6,5),(6,6)}
15 21
𝑃(𝐴𝐶 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴) = 1 − =
36 36
Theorem: 𝑃(Ø) = 0 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝑆) = 1
Ex:(Ø)𝐶 = 𝑆
P(S)=1
𝑃(Ø) = 1 − 𝑃(Ø𝐶 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑆) = 1 − 1 = 0
Theorem: Let A and B be two events in sample space S.
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 𝐶 )

Ex: Suppose that a pair of dice is cast. Let A and B be two events. A is defined as a summation
greater than 9 and B is defined as a summation greater than 7.
A={(5,5),(6,4),(4,6),(5,6),(6,5),(6,6)}
B={(4,4),(2,6),(6,2),(3,5),(5,3),(3,6),(6,3),(5,4),(4,5), (4,6), (6,4),(5,5),(5,6),(6,5),(6,6)}
𝐵 𝐶 = {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6),
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4),
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (5,1),(5,2),(6,1)}

1
 6
𝑃(𝐴) =
36
6
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) =
36
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 𝐶 ) = 𝑃(Ø) = 0
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 𝐶 )
6 6
= +0
36 36
Theorem: Let A and B be two events in S.
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

Ex: Suppose that a pair dice is cast. What is the probability of getting 7 or 10?
A= {(1,6), (6,1), (2,5),(5,2),(3,4),(4,3)}
B= {(4,6), (64), (5,5)}
Since A and B are disjoint 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = Ø
6 3 9
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) = + =
36 36 36
Ex: Suppose that a pair of dice is cast. Let A and B be two events. A is defined as a
summation of 4. B is defined as observing same numbers in a pair. What is the probability of
getting summation of 4 or observing the same number in pairs?
A={(1,3),(3,1),(2,2)}
B={(1,1),(2,2),(3,3),(4,4),(5,5),(6,6)}
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = {(2,2)}

3 6 1 8
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = + − =
36 36 36 36
Theorem: Let Ais be events in S where i=1,2,…,n.
𝑛 𝑛

𝑃 (∐ 𝐴𝑖 ) ≤ ∑ 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 )
𝑖=1 𝑖=1

Remark: When three events exist, the probability of union of three events can be written as
follows:
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶) − 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) +

2
 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)

Conditional Probability
Definition: Let A and B be two events in S. Assuming that the occurrence of event A is
affected by an event B or vice versa so are the probabilities too. Given that event B is
occurred, the conditional probability of A is defined as follows:
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = , 𝑃(𝐵) > 0
𝑃(𝐵)

Similarly,

𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = , 𝑃(𝐴) > 0
𝑃(𝐴)

Since P(A∩B)=P(B∩A)

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵)𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)

Theorem: Let Ai s be events in S.

Ex: A factory produces some tools that are classified as either defective or undefective. The
production of 50 tools are stored in a box where 40 of them is indefective and 10 of them is
defectives. Two tools are randomly chosen from this box without putting the selected one into
box. What is the probability of getting two defective ones from this box.
A1: the first tool defective and A2: the second tool defective
10 9
𝑃(𝐶ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒) = 𝑃(𝐴1 )𝑃(𝐴2 |𝐴1 ) =
50 49
Ex: Three cards are chosen to form a deck of 52 cards without putting the selected one into
deck. What is the probability of getting 3 aces (number 1) (Hint: four types of cards
(diamond, club, heart, spade ranging from 1 to 10 and queen, king and jacks

3
 4 3 2
𝑃(𝐶ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑒 𝑎𝑐𝑒𝑠) = 𝑃(𝐴1 )𝑃(𝐴2 |𝐴1 )𝑃(𝐴3 |𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ) =
52 51 50
Ex: Ex: Suppose that a pair of dice is cast. Let A and B be two events. A is defined as a
summation of 4. B is defined as summation is even number. Given that summation is even,
what is the probability of getting 4 with odd number pairs
A={(1,3),(3,1),(2,2)}
B={(1,1),(2,2),(3,3),(4,4),(5,5),(6,6),(1,3),(1,5),(2,4),(2,6),(3,1),(3,5),(4,2),(2,4),(6,2)
(4,6),(5,1),(5,3),(6,4),(6,6)}
Then,
C={(1,3),(3,1)}
𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) 2/36 2
𝑃(𝐶|𝐵) = = =
𝑃(𝐵) 20/36 20