CHINA AND TAIWAN CONFLICT

Course Title: Introduction to IR

Date: 5/ 21/ 2023

Submitted to:
Ma’am Mubeen Ashraf

Submitted by:
1. Hanana Zahid 1875
2. Mahnoor 1927
3. Hafsa
CHINA-TAIWAN
CONFLICT
LOCATION:
CHINA:
China officially the People’s Republic of
China, is a country in East Asia. Its capital
is Beijing, and China borders fourteen
countries by land, the most of any
country in the world. It has an area of
9.6 million square kilometers making it
the third largest country in the world
after Russia and Canada, China is one of
the most densely populated countries in
the world.

TAIWAN:
Taiwan is Island in the Western Pacific
Ocean that lies roughly 100 miles off the
coast of Southeastern China. With the
People’s Republic of China to the northwest, Japan to the northeast, and the Philippines to the south. It
sits in the so-called “First Island Chain”, which includes a list of US-friendly territories that are crucial to
US foreign policy.

WHY TIES BETWEEN CHINA AND TAIWAN ARE SO TENSED?

BACKGROUND:
Although Taiwan has been run separately from China since 1949, Beijing still considers the island to be a
part of its territory. Beijing has sworn to ultimately "unify" Taiwan with the mainland, if necessary
through the use of force. Anxieties are increasing. Tsai, the president of Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen
has criticized Beijing's attempts to undermine democracy since her party platform supports
independence. Taipei is under increased political and military pressure from Beijing. Rising tensions
between the island and the mainland are being driven by disagreements over Taiwan's status. Taiwan
might become a flashpoint in relations between the United States and China.

INTRODUCTION:
Taiwan, also referred to as the Republic of China (ROC), is an island situated across the Taiwan Strait
from mainland China. Since 1949, it has been run separately from the rest of China as the People's
Republic of China (PRC). The PRC declares that Taiwan will one day "unify" with the mainland and sees
the island as a renegade province. In Taiwan, where there are 23 million people and a democratically
elected government, Political leaders hold contrasting opinions about the island's standing and ties to
the mainland, despite the fact that it is home to 23 million people. Since Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-
wen's victory in 2016, cross-strait tensions have risen. Tsai has rejected a plan that Ma Ying-jeou, her
predecessor, supported in order to promote stronger ties across the Taiwan Strait. Beijing has been
acting more and more aggressively in the meanwhile, including flying fighter jets close to the Island.
Some observers worry that a Chinese strike on Taiwan may lead to a conflict between the United States
and China.

DOES TAIWAN BELONG TO CHINA?

According to Beijing, Taiwan is a component of the "one China" that exists. It adheres to the idea of the
One-China concept, which holds that the PRC is the only legitimate government in China, and advocates
Taiwan's eventual "unification" with the mainland. Beijing asserts that the 1992 Consensus, an
agreement negotiated between representatives of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the
Kuomintang (KMT) party that ruled Taiwan at the time, binds Taiwan. The content of this alleged
consensus, however, is not agreed upon by the two parties, and it was between representatives of the
then-ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The two sides disagree on
the details of this so-called accord, and it was never meant to deal with Taiwan's legal position. The
1992 Consensus shows, in the PRC's words, an understanding that "the two sides of the strait belong to
one China and would work together to seek national reunification." According to the KMT, the phrase
signifies "one China, different interpretations," with the ROC serving as the "one China."

HAS TAIWAN ALWAYS BEEN SEPARATE FROM CHINA?

Historical sources suggest that the island first came under full Chinese control in the 17th Century when
the Qing dynasty began administering it. Then, in 1895, they gave up the island to Japan after losing the
first Sino Japanese war. China took the island again in 1945 after Japan lost World War Two. But a civil
war erupted in mainland China between nationalist government forces led by Chiang Kai-shek and Mao
Zedong’s Communist Party. The communists won in 1949 and took control in Beijing. Chiang Kai-shek
and what was left of the nationalist party – known as the Kuomintang – fled to Taiwan, where they ruled
for the next several decades. China points to this history to say that Taiwan was originally a Chinese
province. But the Taiwanese point to the same history to argue that they were never part of the modern
Chinese state that was first formed after the revolution in 1911 – or the People’s Republic of China that
was established under Mao in 1949. Chiang Kai-shek fled to Taiwan after defeat by the communists in
1949. Chiang Kai-shek led the Kuomintang after fleeing to Taiwan the Kuomintang has been one of
Taiwan’s most prominent political parties ever since –ruling the island for a significant part of its history.
Currently, only 13 countries (plus the Vatican) recognize Taiwan as a sovereign country. China exerts
considerable diplomatic pressure on other countries not to recognize Taiwan or to do anything which
implies recognition.

HOW HAS CHINA MANIPULATED

TAIWAN?
Since Tsai was elected president in 2016, China has
increased its use of coercive methods that do not
include violence. Its goal is to exhaust Taiwan and
convince its citizens that joining the mainland is
their best course of action. In order to achieve this,
China has upped the number and size of PLA
bombers, fighter fighters, and observation aircraft
patrols over and surrounding Taiwan. Additionally, it has been increasingly displaying its might by sailing
warships and aircraft carriers across the Taiwan Strait. Thousands of cyber attacks from China are
reportedly directed at Taiwanese government institutions every day. Recent years have seen an increase
in these attacks. Taipei accused four Chinese organizations in 2020 of breaking into at least ten
Taiwanese government organizations and 6,000 official email accounts in an effort to gain access to
sensitive data and personal information. Beijing has also put Taiwan under pressure without using force.
China and the main Taiwan liaison office's cross-strait communication channel were shut down in 2016.
It curbed travel to Taiwan, resulting in a drop of mainland visitors from a high of over 4 million in 2015
to just 2.7 million in 2019. Global businesses, including airlines and hotel chains, have come under
pressure from China to classify Taiwan as a Chinese province. In 2021, China broke off commerce with
Lithuania for setting up a Taiwanese representative office in its capital, thus intimidating nations that
have relations with Taiwan.

HAS BEIJING WEAKENED TAIWAN’S DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENT?

China has intensified election influence in Taiwan in addition to the methods already mentioned. One of
its strategies is to promote false information on social media and expanding its control over media
outlets in Taiwan. China, for instance, disseminated false material during the 2020 election in an
apparent effort to harm Tsai and support the KMT presidential candidate. These initiatives are a
component of China's overarching plan to use force to undermine Taiwan's political system and sow
discord in Taiwanese society. Experts, on the other hand, see the DPP's victory in recent elections,
including Tsai's victory in 2020, as a criticism of Beijing. Taiwan's democracy is still in its infancy. From
1949 to 1987, martial law was imposed by the KMT. Political dissent was fiercely suppressed at the time,
and Taiwanese natives who had been on the island for a long time before 1945 faced prejudice. In 1992,
Taiwan hosted its first free parliamentary elections, and in 1996, it held its first free presidential
elections. It has since accomplished multiple peaceful handovers of authority between various parties.
Despite Chinese threats, Taiwan seems to have so far defied the global trend of democracies regressing.
Taiwan was for the first time deemed a "full democracy" by the Economist's Democracy Index in 2020.
The report classified Taiwan [PDF] as the tenth-most democratic nation in the world in 2022, placing it
ahead of both its American and Asian neighbors (Japan was ranked thirty-first and South Korea was
ranked twenty-fourth). Voter turnout has been high in recent elections.

CAN TAIWAN DEFENED ITSELF?

China could attempt to bring about “reunification” by non-military means such as strengthening
economic ties .But in any military confrontation; China’s armed forces would dwarf those of Taiwan.
China spends more than any country except the US on defense and could draw on a huge range of
capabilities, from naval power to missile technology, aircraft and cyber attacks. Much of China’s military
power is focused elsewhere but, in overall terms of active duty personnel for example, there is a huge
imbalance. In an open conflict, some Western experts predict that Taiwan could at best aim to slow a
Chinese attack, try to prevent a shore landing by Chinese amphibious forces, and mount guerrilla strikes
while waiting for outside help. That help could come from the US which sells arms to Taiwan. Until now,
Washington’s policy of “strategic ambiguity” has meant the US has been deliberately unclear about
whether or how it would defend Taiwan in the event of an attack. Diplomatically, the US currently sticks
to the “One-China” policy, which recognizes only one Chinese government – in Beijing – and has formal
ties with China rather than Taiwan. But in May last year, US President Joe Biden appeared to harden
Washington’s position. Asked whether the US would defend Taiwan militarily, Mr. Biden replied: “Yes.”

IS THE SITUATION GETTING WORSE?

Relations between Taiwan and China deteriorated sharply following a visit to the island by the then US
House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, in August 2022. Beijing condemned Ms Pelosi’s visit as “extremely
dangerous”. China launched a series of military exercises, including the firing of ballistic missiles, focused
on six danger zones around Taiwan, three of which overlapped the island’s territorial waters. Taiwan
said the move, which forced ships and planes to find routes around those areas, violated its sovereignty
and amounted to a blockade.

Tensions between China and Taiwan had already been increasing. In 2021, China appeared to ramp up
pressure by sending military aircraft into Taiwan’s Air Defense Zone, a self-declared area where foreign
aircraft are identified, monitored, and controlled in the interests of national security. The numbers of
aircraft reported peaked in October 2021 at 56 incursions in a single day, with Taiwan’s defense minister
saying relations were the worst they had been for 40 years. Taiwan has objected to the move and has
instructed Taiwanese vessels not to co-operate with attempts to board and inspect them.

DOES TAIWAN HAVE A MEMBERSHIP IN THE UN?

No. China opposes Taiwan's membership in UN agencies and other international organizations that only
allow nations to join. The United States and Taipei both advocate for Taiwan's meaningful involvement
in these organizations, and Taipei frequently laments its exclusion from them. Considering the COVID-19
epidemic Taiwan criticized the World Health Organization (WHO) for caving in to Beijing's demands and
continuing to exclude Taiwan from participating in the organization's World Health Assembly as an
observer. Taiwan mounted one of the world's most successful responses to COVID-19 in the first two
years of the pandemic. The inclusion of Taiwan in WHO meetings has been demanded by ministers from
the Group of Seven (G7) nations. Taiwan does, however, maintain membership status in more than forty
organizations, the majority of which are regional, including the World Trade Organization, the Asian
Development Bank, and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum. On a number of other bodies, it
has observer or another status. Just thirteen nations have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
Honduras broke diplomatic ties with Taiwan and forged ties with China in March 2023, making it the
most recent nation to do so. No government has ever had formal diplomatic relations with both China
and Taiwan at the same time.

WHAT KIND OF RELATIONSHIP HAS THE US HAD WITH TAIWAN?

The PRC and the United States signed a formal diplomatic agreement in 1979. It also dissolved its mutual
defense pact with the ROC and broke all diplomatic ties with it at the same time. However, the United
States continues to have a strong, unofficial relationship with the island and continues to provide its
military with defense equipment. Beijing has frequently pushed Washington to halt arms sales to Taipei
and break off communication.

TIMELINE OS HISTORY: U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS:

The One-China policy of the United States governs
its strategy. It is based on a number of documents,
including the recently disclosed "Six Assurances"
[PDF] that President Ronald Reagan delivered to
Taiwan in 1982 and three U.S.-China
communiqués that were signed in 1972, 1978, and
1982. It is also based on the Taiwan Relations Act,
which was approved by the U.S. Congress in 1979.
According to these documents, the United States:
Although some U.S. officials have emphasized that
the word "acknowledge" implies that the United States doesn't necessarily accept the Chinese position,
this statement "acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of
China" and that the PRC is the "sole legal government of China"; it also rejects the use of force to resolve
any disputes. Commits to selling Taiwan arms for self-defense, maintains cultural, commercial, and
other ties with Taiwan through the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), and will keep the option of
defending Taiwan while not actually pledging to do so—a strategy known as strategic ambiguity. The
major objective of the United States is to keep the Taiwan Strait peaceful and stable, and it has pleaded
with both Beijing and Taipei to keep things as they are. According to Washington, Taiwanese
independence is not supported. The United States has spent decades trying to balance assisting Taiwan
while averting confrontation with China through its strategy of strategic ambiguity. However, President
Joe Biden By repeatedly asserting that the United States would defend Taiwan if China invaded, the
United States appeared to have rejected the policy. Although White House officials have retracted his
remarks and stated that the policy has not changed, the president ultimately has the last decision in
how to proceed. Biden's remarks have been praised by a number of lawmakers and academics, including
CFR President Richard Haass and Research Fellow David Sacks, who claim that China's rising
assertiveness demands clarity. This opinion has been challenged by other specialists.
IN WHAT MANNER HAVE RECENT AMERICAN PRESIDENTS TREATED
TAIWAN?
Over Chinese protests, the United States strengthened ties with Taiwan under President Donald Trump,
including by giving the military weapons worth more than $18 billion and announcing a $250 million

Complex for its de facto embassy in Taipei. Prior to his inauguration, Trump and Tsai had their highest
degree of communication since 1979 over the phone. In his final days in office, the State Department
lifted long-standing limits on where and how American officials might meet with their Taiwanese
counterparts. He also sent many top administration officials, including a cabinet member, to Taipei.
Similar steps were taken by the Biden administration, which upheld the Trump government's decision to
permit more open meetings between American and Taiwanese officials while continuing arms sales. The
first American president to invite Taiwanese officials to the inauguration was Biden. The United States
regularly sails ships across the Taiwan Strait to show its military presence in the area, engages Taiwan in
military training and discussions, and has pushed Taiwan to raise its defense budget. Additionally,
Taiwan has enjoyed long-standing bipartisan support in Congress, with representatives putting forth and
approving legislation to strengthen the island's defenses, advance U.S.-Taiwan relations, and promote
Taiwan's involvement in international organizations. The Taiwan Policy Act of 2022, the most recent
proposed law, includes a provision identifying Taiwan as a significant ally outside of the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization (NATO). The first speaker to visit Taipei since Newt Gingrich (R-GA) in 1997 was
Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), the House Speaker at the time, who met with Tsai. Beijing vehemently denounced
the visit and, in retaliation, organized military drills that virtually encircled the island, among other
things by prohibiting the importation of some fruit and fish from Taiwan. A little over a year later, in
March, Tsai met with incoming House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). McCarthy was the highest-
ranking American official to meet a president of Taiwan on American territory in almost thirty years.
Despite the visit's brief duration, China's response was equally powerful and included criticism, new
penalties, and a show of force in the Taiwan Strait.

CAN A CONFLICT OVER TAIWAN START?

U.S. analysts are particularly concerned that a confrontation could break out as a result of China's
expanding military might and aggression, as well as the worsening in relations across the Taiwan Strait.
A confrontation between the United States and China could result from such a conflict. That's because
both China and the United States haven't ruled out using force to bring about Taiwan's "reunification" in
the event that China attacks. In a 2021 assessment, the U.S. Department of Defense claimed that China's
the PLA is "likely preparing for a contingency to unify Taiwan with the PRC by force, while
simultaneously deterring, delaying, or denying any third-party intervention, such as the United States."
On the possibility and timing of a Chinese invasion, analysts vary. Although some experts think that such
an invasion is still a ways off, the top U.S. military commander in the Indo-Pacific warned in 2021 that
China might try to attack Taiwan within the next decade [PDF]. Others think 2049 is a crucial year; Xi has
emphasized that Taiwan's unification is necessary to realize what he calls the Chinese Dream, which calls
for the restoration of China's great-power status by 2049. Early in 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine,
reigniting the issue. Some commentators claimed that Moscow's actions may give Beijing the confidence
to attack Taiwan in a similar manner, while others claimed that Beijing might become more cautious
after seeing Russia's difficulties. China's inclination to use force won't be affected by Russia's actions,
according to CFR's Sacks, who also writes that "Chinese leaders will examine Russia's failures and adapt
their operational plans to avoid making similar mistakes." In any case, Taiwan has been a significant
driving force behind China's military modernization, and the PLA has made preparing for a Taiwan
contingency one of its top priorities. The PLA stated in a defense white paper from 2019 that it will
"resolutely defeat anyone attempting to separate Taiwan from China." Without assistance from
elsewhere, researchers believe Taiwan lacks the capacity to repel a Chinese assault. Despite the fact that
Tsai and the DPP have made boosting defense
spending a priority and have set a record budget of
over $19 billion for 2023, China is still thought to
spend over twelve times as much on defense as
Taiwan. Taiwanese lawmakers gave their approval to
the Tsai administration's plan to increase defense
spending by $8.6 billion over the following five years
in 2022. To protect Taiwan's coasts, a portion of this
increased military budget will be used to purchase
cruise missiles, marine mines, and cutting-edge
surveillance systems.

ARE TAIWANESE CITIZENS IN

FAVOUR OF INDEPENDENCE?
The majority of Taiwanese citizens favor keeping things as they are. According to National Chengchi
University opinion surveys, a small percentage of people are in favor of immediate independence. Even
fewer say they're in favor of consolidating China and Taiwan. An overwhelming majority of people
disapprove of the "one country, two systems" theory and this opinion has gotten stronger as Beijing
restricts Hong Kong's freedoms. More Taiwanese people than ever feel more connected to Taiwan than
to the mainland. According to a National Chengchi University survey, about 61 percent of islanders
identified as exclusively Taiwanese in 2022. Comparatively, 33 percent, down from 40 percent a decade
earlier, identified as both Taiwanese and Chinese. Since
1994, when 26 percent of people identified as only
Chinese, the percentage of people who hold this opinion
has dropped to roughly 3 percent. Former Taiwanese
President Ma Ying-jeou, who declared "we are all
Chinese" during a March 2023 event, is one of those who
self-identifies as Chinese. The first trip to China made by
a Taiwanese president since the KMT seized control of
the island in 1949.

WHAT IS THE ECONOMIC SITUATION

IN TAIWAN?
China continues to be Taiwan's principal trading partner,
which is important to the island nation's economy. But in
recent years, their economic ties have suffered, in part because of Beijing's pressure on the island and
Taiwanese officials' rising worry about the island's overreliance on trade with China.

WHY IS TAIWAN IMPORTANT FOR THE REST OF THE WORLD?

Taiwan’s economy is hugely important. Much of the world’s everyday electronic equipment – from
phones to laptops, watches and games consoles – is powered by computer chips made in Taiwan. By
one measure, a single Taiwanese company – the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company or
TSMC – has over half of the world’s market. TSMC is a so-called “foundry” – a company which makes
chips designed by consumer and military customers. It is a vast industry, worth almost $100bn (£73bn)
in 2021. A Chinese takeover in Taiwan could give Beijing some control over one of the world’s most
important industries.