A

Project Report

On

THE FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL

ANALYSIS OF OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY

A Report Submitted to

SDJ International College, Vesu

Affiliated to: Veer Narmad South Gujarat University, Surat

For,

Partial requirement for the fulfillment of the Degree of

Bachelor of Business Administration (BBA)

Submitted by:
Sherathiya parth Ashokbhai
Roll No.: 110
Exam Seat No.: 2836

Under the Guidance of

Dr. Hiral Desai

SDJ International College,
(BBA PROGRAMME)
Veer Narmad South Gujarat University,
Surat
June – 2021
COLLAGE CERTIFICATE
 DECLARATION

I, Mr. PARTH SHERATHIYA, hereby declare that the project report

entitled “THE FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

OF OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY” is the original piece of research

work carried out by me under the guidance and supervision of Dr.

Hiral Desai, Assistant Professor, SDJ International College,

affiliated to Veer Narmad South Gujarat University, Surat. I further

declare that all the data and information collected through secondary

sources are duly acknowledged in the report.

-------------------
Date: Parth Sherathiya
Place: Surat Roll No.:110
Exam Seat No.:2836
SDJ International College,
Vesu

i
 Acknowledgements
At this point, when I am about to finish my project work, it is my privileged
opportunity to thank all those people for their contribution provided to this
research work.

Firstly I would like to thank our honorable director Mr. Deepak Vaidya, who
always work and think in the direction of betterment of the students and
institute as well as supporting us with all the necessary resources to finish our
three golden years of graduation.

Next, I wish my heartfelt thank to I/C principal of this college Dr. Aditi Bhatt,
who always motivate us to fulfill our dreams and lead us in the direction of
growth. She has given her valuable inputs for effective completion of this
project.

I cannot forget the contribution of my project guide Dr. Hiral Desai, without
the support of whom I would have never completed this report. Her constant
help, guidance and continuous teaching have given me so many inputs on
academic as well as non-academic front.

I would also like to thank Mr. Sanjay Bhatt, Librarian, with the effort of
whom, we could get the insights and learning from past years reports.

Lastly, I would thank all my friends, respondents and other persons directly or
indirectly, who have supported me in completing this report.

June,2021 Parth Sherathiya

Surat

ii
 Table of Content
CHPATER SR PARTICULAR PAGE
NO NO. NO.
Title Page
Collage Certificate
Declaration I
Acknowledgement II
Chapter 1 Introduction 1-13
1.1 About Oil And Gas Industry 2-8
1.1.1 Brief About Oil And Gas Industry 2
1.1.2 Government Initiatives 3
1.1.3 Road Ahead 4
1.1.4 Major Industry Players The Major Industry Players In 8
India’s O&NG Industry Currently Are
1.2 Technical Analysis 9-11
1.2.1 Brief History Of Technical Analysis 9
1.2.2 Of Technical Meaning Analysis 9
1.2.3 Use Of Technical Analysis 10
1.2.4 Limitations Of Technical Analysis 11
1.2.5 Key Takeaways 11
1.3 Fundamental Analysis 12-13
1.3.1 Meaning Of Fundamental Analysis 12
1.3.2 Uses Of Fundamental Analysis 12
1.4 The Difference Between Technical Analysis And 13
Fundamental Analysis

Chapter 2 Review Of Literature 14-23

Chapter 3 Research Methodology 24-29

3.1 Problem Identification 25
3.2 Research Objective 26
3.2 Research Design 26
3.4 Data Collection 27
3.5 Sampling Design 28
3.6 Data Processing 28
3.7 Limitations Of The Report 29

Chapter 4 Data Analysis & Interpretation 30-43

4.1 Fundamental Analysis 31-43
4.1.1 Data Interpretation 31-40
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 4.1.2 Separate Interpretation Of Companies 41-43
4.2 Technical Analysis 44-72
4.2.1 Brief About Some Technical 44-46
4.2.2 Guide – How To Interpret Different Chart 47-48
Template Of Same Companies?
4.2.3 Data Interpretation Through Technical Indicator 49-72

Chapter 5 Findings & Conclusion And Recommendations 73-76

5.1 Findings 74
5.2 Concussion 75
5.3 Recommendation 75-76
Bibliography 77-78

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 LIST OF TABLE
SR NO. PARTICULAR Page
no.
TABLE 1 EPS OF OIL AND GAS COMPANIES 31
TABLE 2 PE OF OIL AND GAS COMAPANIES 33
TABLE 3 ROCE OF OIL AND GAS COMAPANIES 35
TABLE 4 ROE OF OIL AND GAS COMAPANIES 37
TABLE 5 D/P RATIOOF OIL AND GAS COMAPANIES 39

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 LIST OF CHART
SR NO. PARICULAR PAGE
NO.
CHART 1 EPS OF OIL AND GAS COMAPANIES 32
CHART 2 PE OF OIL AND GAS COMAPANIES 34
CHART 3 ROCE OF OIL AND GAS COMAPANIES 36
CHART 4 ROE OF OIL AND GAS COMAPANIES 38
CHART 5 D/P RATIOOF OIL AND GAS COMAPANIES 40
CHART 6 RELIANCE TEMPLATE 1 49
CHART 7 RELIANCE TEMPLATE 2 50
CHART 8 RELIANCE TEMPLATE 3 51
CHART 9 IOC TEMPLATE 1 53
CHART 10 IOC TEMPLATE 2 54
CHART 11 IOC TEMPLATE 3 55
CHART 12 OIL TEMPLATE 1 57
CHART 13 OIL TEMPLATE 2 58
CHART 14 OIL TEMPLATE 3 59
CHART 15 HPCL TEMPLATE 1 61
CHART 16 HPCL TEMPLATE 2 62
CHART 17 HPCL TEMPLATE 3 63
CHART 18 BPCL TEMPLATE 1 65
CHART 19 BPCL TEMPLATE 2 66
CHART 20 BPCL TEMPLATE 3 67
CHART 21 ONGC TEMPLATE 1 69
CHART 22 ONGC TEMPLATE 2 70
CHART 23 ONGC TEMPLATE 3 71

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 List of Figures

SR.NO PARTICULAR PAGE NUMBER

FIGURE 1 ADVANTAGE TO INDIA 5
FIGURE 2 OIL AND GAS 6
FIGURE 3 REFINARIES LOCATION IN INDIA 7

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 CH-1
INTRODUCTION

1
1.1 About oil and gas Industry
1.1.1 Brief about Oil and gas industry
Oil and gas sector is among the eight core industries in India and plays a major role in
influencing decision making for all the other important sections of the economy.

India’s economic growth is closely related to its energy demand, therefore, the need for oil
and gas is projected to grow more, thereby making the sector quite conducive for
investment.

The Government has adopted several policies to fulfil the increasing demand. It has
allowed 100% Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in many segments of the sector, including
natural gas, petroleum products and refineries among others. Today, it attracts both
domestic and foreign investment as attested by the presence of Reliance Industries Ltd
(RIL) and Cairn India.

India has been the fourth-largest Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) importer since 2011 after
Japan, South Korea, and China.

India is expected to be one of the largest contributors to non-OECD petroleum

consumption growth globally. Crude Oil import rose sharply to US$ 101.4 billion in 2019-
20 from US$ 70.72 billion in 2016-17. India retained its spot as the third largest consumer
of oil in the world in 2019 with consumption of 5.16 million barrels per day (mbpd) of oil
in 2019 compared to 4.56 mbpd in 2016.

As of October 01, 2020, India’s oil refining capacity stood at 249.9 million metric tons
(MMT), making it the second-largest refiner in Asia. Private companies own about 35.29%
of the total refining capacity in FY20.

to 4.54 mbpd from 4.53 mbpd in FY19. Natural Gas consumption is forecast to reach
143.08 million tons (MT) by 2040. India’s LNG import stood at 33.68 bcm during FY20.

India’s consumption of petroleum products grew 4.5% to 213.69 MMT during FY20 from
213.22 MMT in FY19. The total value of petroleum products exported from the country

2
increased to US$ 35.8 billion in FY20 from US$ 34.9 billion in FY19. Export of petroleum
products from India increased from 60.54 MMT in FY16 to 65.7 MMT in FY20.

Gas pipeline infrastructure in the country stood at 17,016 kms as of June 30, 2020.1

1.1.2 Government Initiatives

Some of the major initiatives taken by the Government of India to promote oil and gas
sector are:

• In November 2020, oil regulator Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board
(PNGRB) simplified the country's gas pipeline tariff structure to make fuel more
affordable for distant users and attract investment for building gas infrastructure.
• In November 2020, the Indian government urged OPEC to remove pricing
anomalies for different regions with a view to aid the Corona-battered global oil
industry get back to normalcy.
• As per Union Budget 2019-20, Indian Scheme ‘Kayakave Kailasa’, the Ministry of
Petroleum & Natural Gas has enabled SC/ST entrepreneurs in providing bulk LPG
transportation. State run energy firms, Bharat Petroleum, Hindustan Petroleum and
Indian Oil Corporation, plan to spend US$ 20 billion on refinery expansions to add
units by 2022.
• The Government is planning to set up around 5,000 compressed biogas (CBG)
plants by 2023.
• The Government is planning to invest US$ 2.86 billion in the upstream oil and gas
production to double natural gas production to 60 bcm and drill more than 120
exploration wells by 2022.
• Government of India is planning to invest Rs. 70,000 crore (US$ 9.97 billion) to
expand the gas pipeline network across the country.
• In September 2018, Government of India approved fiscal incentives to attract
investment and technology to improve recovery from oil fields, which is expected
to lead to hydrocarbon production worth Rs. 50 lakh crore (US$ 745.82 billion) in
the next 20 years.

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• State-run oil firms are planning investment worth Rs. 723 crore (US$ 111.30
million) in Uttar Pradesh to improve the LPG infrastructure in a bid to promote
clean energy and generate employment according to Mr. Dharmendra Pradhan,
Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India.

• A gas exchange is planned in order to bring market-driven pricing in the energy

market of India and the proposal for the same is ready to be taken to the Union
Cabinet according to Mr. Dharmendra Pradhan, Minister of Petroleum and Natural
Gas, Government of India.

• The Oil Ministry plans to set up bio-CNG (compressed natural gas) plants and
allied infrastructure at a cost of Rs. 7,000 crore (US$ 1.10 billion) to promote the
use of clean fuel.2

1.1.3 Road Ahead

Energy demand of India is anticipated to grow faster than energy demand of all major
economies on the back of continuous robust economic growth. India’s energy demand is
expected to double to 1,516 Mtoe by 2035 from 753.7 Mtoe in 2017. Moreover, the
country’s share in global primary energy consumption is projected to increase by two-fold
by 2035.

Crude oil consumption is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.60% to 500 million tons by
2040 from 221.56 million tons in 2017.

Natural Gas consumption is forecast to increase at a CAGR of 4.18% to 143.08 million

tons by 2040 from 58.10 million tons in 2018.

Diesel demand in India is expected to double to 163 million tons (MT) by 2029-30.
Note: Conversion rate used in December 2020, Rs. 1 = US$ 0.013573

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https://www.ibef.org/industry/oil-gas-india.aspx
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FIGURE 1

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4
FIGURE 2

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5
FIGURE 3

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1.1.4 Major Industry Players the major industry players in
India’s O&NG industry currently are:
i. Upstream Sector: Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), Oil India Limited and
Crain Energy. ONGC is the largest upstream company in E&P segment accounting
for approximately 61.5 percent of India’s total oil output. During the Financial year
2016, 1,118,000 meters of wells were explored and developed in India, and during
the same period, 506 wells were drilled in India.
ii. Midstream Sector: Indian Oil Corporation, Gas Authority of India Limited, etc.
Indian Oil Corporation operates a 11,214 km network of crude, gas and product
pipelines, with a capacity of 1.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) of oil and 10
million metric standard cubic meters per day (mmscmd) of gas. This is around 30
per cent of the India’s total pipeline network.
iii. Downstream Sector: Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation
Limited, Hindustan petroleum, etc. Indian Oil Corporation is the largest company,
controlling 10 out of 22 Indian refineries, with a combined capacity of 1.31 mbpd.

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1.2 Technical Analysis

1.2.1 Brief History of Technical Analysis

The technical analysis of stocks and trends has been used for hundreds of years. In Europe,
Joseph de la Vega adopted early technical analysis techniques to predict Dutch markets in
the 17th century. In its modern form, however, technical analysis owes heavily to Charles
Dow, William P. Hamilton, Robert Rhea, Edson Gould, and many others—including a
ballroom dancer named Nicolas Darvas. These people represented a new perspective on the
market as a tide that is best measured in highs and lows on a chart rather than by the
particulars of the underlying company. The diverse collection of theories from early
technical analysts were brought together and formalized in 1948 with the publishing
of Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Robert D. Edwards and John Magee.

Candlestick patterns date back to Japanese merchants eager to detect trading patterns for
their rice harvests. Studying these ancient patterns became popular in the 1990s in the U.S.
with the advent of internet day trading. Investors analyzed historical stock charts eager to
discover new patterns for use when recommending trades. Candlestick reversal patterns in
particular are critically important for investors to identify, and there are several other
commonly used candlestick charting patterns. The doji and the engulfing pattern are all
used to predict an imminent bearish reversal.

1.2.2 Meaning of Technical analysis

Technical analysis is a blanket term for a variety of strategies that depend on interpretation
of price action in a stock. Most technical analysis is focused on determining whether or not
a current trend will continue and, if not, when it will reverse. Some technical analysts
swear by trendlines, others use candlestick formations, and yet others prefer bands and
boxes created through a mathematical visualization. Most technical analysts use some
combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for trades. A chart
formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, for example, but the trader will
look at moving averages for different time periods to confirm that a breakdown is likely.

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1.2.3 Use of Technical Analysis
The core principle underlying technical analysis is that the market price reflects all
available information that could impact a market. As a result, there's no need to look at
economic, fundamental, or new developments since they're already priced into a given
security. Technical analysts generally believe that prices move in trends and history tends
to repeat itself when it comes to the market's overall psychology. The two major types of
technical analysis are chart patterns and technical (statistical) indicators.

Chart patterns are a subjective form of technical analysis where technicians attempt to
identify areas of support and resistance on a chart by looking at specific patterns. These
patterns, underpinned by psychological factors, are designed to predict where prices are
headed, following a breakout or breakdown from a specific price point and time. For
example, an ascending triangle chart pattern is a bullish chart pattern that shows a key area
of resistance. A breakout from this resistance could lead to a significant, high-volume
move higher.

Technical indicators are a statistical form of technical analysis where technicians apply
various mathematical formulas to prices and volumes. The most common technical
indicators are moving averages, which smooth price data to help make it easier to spot
trends. More complex technical indicators include the moving average convergence
divergence (MACD), which looks at the interplay between several moving averages. Many
trading systems are based on technical indicators since they can be quantitatively
calculated.

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1.2.4 Limitations of Technical Analysis
Technical analysis has the same limitation of any strategy based on particular trade
triggers. The chart can be misinterpreted. The formation may be predicated on low volume.
The periods being used for the moving averages may be too long or too short for the type
of trade you are looking to make. Leaving those aside, the technical analysis of stocks and
trends has a fascinating limitation unique to itself.6

1.2.5 KEY TAKEAWAYS

Technical analysis attempts to predict future price movements, providing traders with the
information needed to make a profit.

Traders apply technical analysis tools to charts in order to identify entry and exit points for
potential trades.

An underlying assumption of technical analysis is that the market has processed all
available information and that it is reflected in the price chart.7

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1.3 Fundamental analysis
1.3.1 Meaning of Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis (FA) is a method of measuring a security's intrinsic value by
examining related economic and financial factors. Fundamental analysts study anything
that can affect the security's value, from macroeconomic factors such as the state of the
economy and industry conditions to microeconomic factors like the effectiveness of the
company's management.

The end goal is to arrive at a number that an investor can compare with a security's current
price in order to see whether the security is undervalued or overvalued.

1.3.2 Uses of Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis is a method that is used by many different types of investors in

various situations. Here are some of the uses of fundamental analysis.

1. Buy and Hold

One of the most common investment strategies utilizes a buy and hold approach.
With fundamental analysis, you can determine whether you are selecting the right
securities for this investment strategy. You want to make sure that the company you
are investing in is solid and will be around for the long-term. Fundamental analysis
can give you an indication of this information.

2. Valuing Good Companies

This type of analysis can also help you evaluate which companies are good
investments and which ones are not. For example, you will be able to look at
determinations such as the price-earnings ratio, price-to-sales ratio, and the debt
load of a company to gauge how healthy the company actually is.

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 3. Value Investors

Value investors regularly utilize fundamental analysis whenever they are trying to
determine which companies are undervalued in the market place. The object of
value investing is to try to find companies that are trading at prices below what they
should be. In order to do this, you are going to have to dig deep into financial
statements to see if they are valued correctly.8

1.4 The Difference between Technical Analysis and

Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis and technical analysis are the two big factions in finance. Whereas
technical analysts believe the best approach is to follow the trend as it forms through
market action, fundamental analysts believe the market often overlooks value.
Fundamental analysts will ignore chart trends in favor of digging through the balance sheet
and the market profile of a company in search of intrinsic value not currently reflected in
the price. There are many examples of successful investors using fundamental or technical
analysis to guide their trading and even those who incorporate elements of both. On the
whole, however, technical analysis lends itself to a faster investing pace, whereas
fundamental analysis generally has a longer decision timeline and holding period by virtue
of the time required for the extra due diligence.9

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 CH.2
REVIEW OF LITERATURE

14
(Levy, R. A. 1967). Relative strength as a criterion for investment selection. examines the
importance of relative strength as a criterion for investment selection. Weekly closing price
of 200 stocks listed in NYSE is taken for a period of five years from 1960. Stocks which
have been historically strong tend to remain relatively strong for some significant period of
time. All the price series are adjusted for stock split, stock dividend and reinvestment of
both cash dividend and proceeds received from sale of asset. It is important to note that 26
weeks average rate of return is more compatible in the market. The study finds that
considering the relative strength is more important in the investment selection.

(Lento, Gradojevic, & Wright, 2007) Have tried to find a answer of Investment
information content in Bollinger Bands? This article tests the profitability of Bollinger
Bands (BB) technical indicators. It is found that, after adjusting for transaction costs, the
BB are consistently unable to earn profits in excess of the buy-and-hold trading strategy.
However, the profitability is improved using a contrarian’s approach. The data sets are for
the period of 9 May, 1995 to 31 December, 2004. There are a total of 2421 daily closing
prices for the TSX, DJIA and the Canada/US dollar spot exchange rate and a total of 2196
observations for the NASDAQ. The daily returns are calculated as the holding period
return of each day This traditional definition is tested along with two variants: 30-day
moving average, þ/2 and 20-day moving average, þ/1. The reason for using 30- days is to
determine whether a longer time frame can generate more informative signals.. This study
finds that the BB are not profitable. They consistently underperform relative to the buy-
and-hold trading strategy. After adjusting for transaction costs, the BB is profitable for
only 2 of the 12 tests.

(Sehgal & Tripathi, 2007) found that “the statistically significant value effect using
alternative measures such as book to market equity (BE/ME), earnings to price (E/P), cash
flows to price (C/P) and dividends to price (D/P). Value effect is found to be significant on
unadjusted as well as risk adjusted return basis. Trading strategy based on value effect is
found to be economically feasible. The value effect seems to be related to relative distress,
as value stocks tend to exhibit lower sales growth a couple of years prior to portfolio
formation as compared to growth stocks. The sales growth trend however reverses in the
post portfolio formation period. The author found three important sources of value effect
viz.- operating profitability, size and financial leverage.”

15
(Sehgal & Pandey, 2010) argued that the “price-to-earnings provide the best price
forecast compared to the other three price multiples, price-to-book value, price to cash flow
and price to sales. Further, the researcher claims that the value driver combination book
value-sales appear to be most efficient in terms of error minimization. However, historical
price to earnings as a standalone multiple performs a better in equity valuation vis a vis all
combinations of value drivers. The authors recommend that historical price to Earnings
(P/E) is the best multiple for developing price forecasts.

(sharma, Mahendru, & singh, 2010) The study tests out the usefulness of the
technical analysis in predicting the future market trends. The study takes 15 companies as
recommended by the analysts in the smart investor of the business standard newspaper for
the month of January 2010. They use mean, regression and t-test to prove the results The
15 companies are HSIL, Transportation corporation of India, SAIL, Bharti Airtel, ONGC,
BHEL, ICICI bank, etc …. , price of months of February and march 2010 are taken by
them. In general, they conclude from the results that the technical indicators can play a
useful role in the timing of stock market entry and exits. According to the study they have
done the buy recommendations are true but not the sell recommendations given by the
analysts.

(Kannan, Sailapathi, Mohamed, & Arumugam, 2010) have done a study on

Financial Stock Market Forecast using Data Mining Techniques . Five methods of
analyzing stocks were combined to predict if the following day’s closing price would
increase or decrease. The five methods were Typical Price (TP), Chaikin Money Flow
indicator (CMI), Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI), Relative Strength Index (RSI),
Bollinger Bands (BB), Moving Average(MA) and Bollinger Signal. it investigated various
global events and their issues predicting on stock markets. It supports numerically and
graphically. The results show that this algorithm was able to predict if the following day’s
closing price would increase or decrease better than chance (50%) with a high level of
significance. This is not to say that this algorithm would make anyone rich, but it may be
useful for trading analysis. You could win 50% of the time, but still lose a lot consecutively
before you actually won..

(Praekhaow, 2010) evaluate Determination of Trading Points using the Moving Average
Methods samples were selected by simple random sampling method from the stocks in the
16
set 50 stocks indexes of the Thailand Stock Market. The time period is Between January
1st, 2009 and July 15th, 2009, the price of the sample stocks (BEC, ITD, PTT, and SCB ).
The results found that the time length of 20 days emerged as the most profitable for SMA
and EMA. Also, it indicated that profits generated from SMA were higher than WMA and
EMA.

(KULKARNI, 2011) has done a study on FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF ONGC.

This study provides a logical and systematic approach to estimate future profits. This study
helps to know that the company’s performance depends not only on its own efforts but also
on the industry and economic factors. This study helps an analyst to study the fundamental
factors affecting the performance of different industries. Also industry analysis helps to
evaluate the relative strength and weaknesses of particular company. The financial
statements of ONGC can be used to evaluate the financial performance of the company.
Ratio analysis helps investors to determine the strength and weaknesses of the company. It
also helps to him to assess whether the financial performance and financial strength are
improving or deteriorating. As a secondary data he collected The annual report of ONGC
for the year 2009-2010 to interpret the ratios of the company.

(Chitra, 2011) A Researcher examine Technical Analysis on Selected Stocks of Energy

Sector. The study aims at analyzing the price movements of selected companies scrip. Oil
and Natural Gas Corporation.(ONGC) • TATA Power • National and Thermal Corporation
(NTPC) • Gas Authority of India Ltd(GAIL) • CAIRN • Bharat Petroleum corporation
Ltd(BPCL) • Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd • Reliance Power • Reliance Industries
Ltd • suzlon. 10 companies which are actively traded in NSE were taken on Stratified
sampling basis for the study. BETA, RSI, MOVING AVERAGES are used in study. ,
investors should look for right opportunities keeping in tune with the dynamics of market
environment. Technical analysis gives investor a better understanding of the stocks and
also gives them right direction to go on further to buy or sell the stocks .Therefore, the
small investors and traders should not blindly make an investment rather they should
analyze using the various tools to check if the scrip is technically strong

(Shrinivasan, 2012) analyzed that earning per share and price-earnings ratio are being
the crucial determinants of share prices of manufacturing, pharmaceutical sector, energy,
infrastructure and commercial banking sectors. The findings indicate that size is being a
17
significant factor in determining the share prices of all sectors under consideration except
manufacturing. Moreover, the book value per share positively influences the share prices of
pharmaceutical, energy, IT & ITES and Infrastructure.
(Gomathi & Nirmala, 2012) have done an Analysis of Nifty Movement on Share Prices of
Selected Construction Companies. This study aims at analyzing and predicting the price
movements of construction companies stocks contributing to the NIFTY50 Index. To
analyze the volatility of telecom stock and understand the behavior of stock prices in
construction sector stocks i.e. (JP ASSOCIATES LIMITED, DLF LIMITED, GAMMON
INDIA LIMITED, PUNJ LLOYD LIMITED, HCC LIMITED). The data for these stocks
are collected from magazines, newspaper and websites. The technical tools used in this
study are Exponential moving average, Relative strength index, Rate of change, MACD.
movement in the market and predicts the future. It helps in identifying that the best time to
buy and sell equity. Study is conducted for the period of (145 days) 1/07/2011 to
31/01/2012. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the five construction companies lies
between 30 and 70, it is suggested that the investors can hold the shares for some period.
The relationships between the Nifty value and the share price of five construction
companies have positive correlation. Investor will invest in these to earn more profit.

(Bentes & Navas, 2013) had done a study on The Fundamental Analysis: An Overview. s
the fundamental analysis by covering a number of studies in this field of research. This
constitutes a useful tool to evaluate the companies’ financial performance. Particularly, the
discussion in this paper illustrates how this kind of approach can help in analyzing a
companies’ stock price. Additionally, a debate on its potentialities is also provided.
Wal‐Mart Stores ,Alcoa chosen as a sample study by random sampling method. This
research based on secondary data. EPS, ROI ROE, PE, PB rarios are consider for doing
fundamental analysis. They conclude that Though technical and fundamental analysis
bases on past events, they cannot however guarantee future results. Both appear to be
important tools for investment decisions. However, since the fundamental analysis bases
on a plethora of company's accounting reports, covering the most important financial
aspects of a firm, we believe it is more suitable for long-term investing strategies.

(suresh, 2013) has done A STUDY ON FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL. In this

paper researcher describe the technique of how to do fundamental analysis and technical
analysis. He gave EIC analysis approach for fundamental analysis. Moving average, RSI,
18
charts, trend used for technical analysis. Researcher did not select any company for this
analysis. He simply gave general methods for analyze any stock. He conclude that study of
both analysis will help investor or trader to get right information and made right decision.

(Boobalan, 2014) had done a study on TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IN SELECT

STOCKS OF INDIAN COMPANIES . For Technical Analysis, Secondary Data the
weekly share price movements of the selected companies in NSE were absorbed for the 3
years i.e. FEB-2011 to 03-MAR-2014. The closing prices of share prices were taken and
the future price movement was analyzed using various tools All the listed companies in the
National Stock Exchange 5 companies which are actively traded in NSE were taken on
Stratified sampling basis for the study. The selected companies are: 1. WIPRO 2. SBIN 3.
GAIL 4. ONGC 5. ITC This paper is aims at carrying out Technical Analysis of the
securities of the selected companies and to assist investment decisions in this Indian
Market. The Researcher gave target price , stop loss, and buy price of different selected
stocks by using technical analysis.

(Terence Tai-Leung Chong, 2014) have done Revisiting the Performance of MACD and
RSI Oscillators. The MACD is constructed based on exponential moving averages. It is
calculated by subtracting the longer exponential moving average (EMA) of window length
N from the shorter EMA of window length M, where the EMA is computed as follows:
January 1976 to December 2002 are obtained from DataStreamThis study finds that the
centerline crossover of the RSI has predictive ability in the Italian and Canadian stock
markets. In particular, the RSI(21,50) rule performs well in the Milan Comit General
Index. The RSI(14,30/70) rule is also profitable in the Dow Jones Industrials Index. The
profits are sustainable in the presence of a 1% round-trip transaction cost none of the rules
can beat the buy-and-hold strategy . These findings are in line with Chong and Ng [10] that
the MACD and RSI rules can generate significant profit for FT30. Notably, Chong and Ng
[10] demonstrate that MACD and RSI rules are robust to the choice of sample.

(Valarmathi & Kowsalya, 2016) have made a Study on the Technical Analysis of NSE
Towards it Stocks with Reference to Indian Stock Market. The article is about the technical
analysis as to how it plays an important role in secondary market, analysis of stocks and its
usefulness towards trading. Period of study is between December2014 – April’2015. This
is an analytical study based on the secondary data collected from NSE India of five IT
19
stocks. Hexaware, Polaris, HCL, TCS, Tech Mahindra. Analysis is done based on the
technical tools like Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and Relative Strength Index
(RSI) and inferred based on the chart patterns formed. From the study it is found that after
the Recession the IT companies provided short term investment gain to its investors. It also
found that the market trend of IT industry tends up with gradual price fluctuation. It is
concluded that investors can invest in the IT stocks in future also with the consideration of
country’s economic scenario and the short.

(Srinivasan, 2018) has done a study on financial ratio analysis of Vellore cooperative
sugar mills ltd. The company's financial performance has been thoroughly examined
during the years from 2013-2017. And the data was collected from the secondary sources.
The research includes analyzing the balance sheet and profit & loss account for the period
of five years. A researcher gave a conclusion that the overall financial performance was not
satisfactory as per analysis. The company has to take appropriate steps to control the cost,
increase the volume of sales, profit in the future years.

(Agustin, 2018) Researcher study the integration of fundamental and technical analysis in
predicting the stock price. The scope of this study includes the listed companies in LQ 45
stock exchange during 2007- 2016 period. The Fundamental Variable used in this study are
Earning per Share (EPS), Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR), and Return on Equity (ROE). The
Technical Variable used is the price during the previous six months. The sampling
selection method used was Purposive Sampling, ie each sample according to the criteria of
the study, the companies that are on the LQ45 index during the year of 2007-2016. 56
companies were chosen during that period. Prior studies have been conducted in order to
investigate the relationship of fundamental and technical variables in predicting stock
prices. Technical model sees considerable increases in adjusted R squared values and
marked drops in corresponding AIC figures. Finally, the prediction from technical
approach was found satisfactorily adequate as a guide for traders and investors in making
investing decision.

(Goud, Purani, & Kumar, 2019) have made a study Fundamental Analysis of Indian
Petroleum PSU's . This fundamental analysis involves analysis of economic indicators,
industry analysis, and financial ratios of the selected PSU’s. This research used the annual
report of BPCL, HPCL, IOCL, and ONGC for 2009-2017. Objective of this research is to
20
analysis the performance of selected oil and gas companies in the stock market. To forecast
the future of selected oil and gas companies stocks. They find that various ratio describe a
lot about company’s performance investors need to observe the world GDP growth, gulf
stability and OPEC decisions while Investment in petroleum Companies.. This research
totally done through secondary data.

(S.Suganya, 2019) Had done a study on Financial Performance Pre and Post
Disinvestment Period – An Empirical Analysis. The data has been collected from
secondary source exclusively. Secondary data has been collected from ONGC published
reports, articles and ONGC of Public Sector Enterprises websites. The data drawn from
various sources has been analyzed with the help of statistical tools and various accounting
ratios. Accounting and Statistical tools like ratio analysis, mean, standard deviation,
coefficient of variation and t test are used to analyze the data. She found that Public sector
enterprises have been set up to serve the broad macroeconomic objectives of higher
economic growth, self sufficiency in production of goods and services, long term
equilibrium in balance of payments and low and stable prices. The CPSEs play a critical
role in the Indian economy.

(Khandelwal, jain, & gupta, 2019) Have done a study on Stock Analysis of Oil Drilling
and Exploration Companies Impacting India’s Economic Environment The study aims at
analyzing the price movements of the top five oil drilling and exploration companies’ scrip
listed on NSE. the closing prices of all the five companies listed on NSE were absorbed for
the last complete one year, i.e., from 27th August 2016 to 27th August 2017 on a daily
basis. Data have collected from secondary sources, i.e. trading of the equity market in
NSE. top 5 have selected by their market capitalization as on 27th August 2017. ONGC
(Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited) , GAIL (GAIL India Limited) ,Petronet LNG
(Petronet LNG Limited) , Oil India (Oil India Limited) , IGL (Indraprastha Gas Limited). it
has finally concluded that though the oil drilling and exploration put adverse effects on the
environment but still the companies engaged in this process is performing well. The overall
descriptive analysis, as well as RSI indicator which give internal financial strength of
company, signifies the balance working of all these organizations and show the
contribution for economics wealth growth for the Nation.

21
(Vijay, 2020) Has done her STUDY ON FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS THROUGH
ANALYZING THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF SELECTED
PHARMACEUTICAL AND HEALTHCARE COMPANIES. The stock market investment
evaluation has two basic aspects, notably technological analysis & fundamental analysis.
This article focuses on a fundamental analysis of the pharmaceutical industries NSE, that
also involves chosen firms listed for the five-year period from 2011-2015. Various
efficiency indicators including EPS, DPS, Net Income Margin, Debt to Equity Ratio
respectivley. are utilized for business valuation. The collection requirements for industries
are relevant. This analysis found that the pharmaceutical industries catalog in the NSE had
been chosen to satisfy the following requirements. High in market capitalization, high in
revenue, high in net profit, large in gross assets, low in debt. Lupin, glenmark
pharma,cadila health care, cipla, torrent pharma chosen as sample. The study showed that
the GDP, employment, interest rates, foreign exchange levels, international markets,
international inflows, exports & agricultural output had a good rate of growth during the
analysis era.

(Srinivas & Rao, 2020) Have analyzed the Financial Performance of Indian Corporate
Sector - A Study of Top Ten Companies. Data has been collected from published reports,
articles and Public Sector Enterprises websites for analyzing the financial performance
selected parameters are profitability, market capitalization, revenue and changes also
considered. The accounting technique – ratio analysis and statistical techniques like bar
diagram used. Findings according to this journal the corporate sector is the strength of
character of the Indian economy, so for as it provides a crucial, efficient and planned
system for the enlargement of industrial as well as non-industrial sectors of the economy.
There were 11, 89,826 active companies as on June 30, 2018," The variables viz sales,
profit after tax, market capitalization, change of profit and revenue of the companies were
examined over a period of two year.. This study covers Reliance Industries Ltd, Indian Oil
Corporation Ltd, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd, State Bank of India, Tata Motors
Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. Rajesh
Export Ltd, Tata Steel Ltd and Coal India Ltd. In the ever changing competitive business
environment the company’s management should design the innovative strategies to
enhance customer value for more returns on the investment and thereby to further
strengthen the financial health of the company.

22
(Bhatia, 2021) The study is aimed to understand TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND ITS
USE IN THE STOCK MARKETS. The study is aimed to understand whether the charting
patterns (Japanese candlesticks and classical price patterns) work for the charts of small
cap and midcap companies. Systematic sampling was chosen and companies were
categorised on the basis of their market capitalization. Three companies from both, midcap
and small cap categories were considered as the sample of the study. Motherson Sumi
Systems Limited (third sample), WABCO India Limited (fifty-fifth), and Vinati Organics
Limited (one-hundredth seven) is sample size. The time period of data used for the purpose
of this study was six (6) months. With the research’s objectives being proven true,
experienced traders and even individuals who do not have much knowledge and time for
the stock market can earn money and use the stock market as their extra source of income.
It just requires observational skills and practice. Basic learning, constant practice of the
identification of the patterns and timing the entry and exit of the trade will definitely
reward the person. Hence, technical analysis and charting patterns can be relied upon and
be used in the stock market as a means for generating secondary source of income.

23
 CH – 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

24
3.1 PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION
Why you want to do the research
Due to lack of understanding many people misinterpret stocks as a gamble, but the reality
is far away from this, each and every company's stock prices more or less reflect the
Fundamentals of the company. So, to understand the fundamentals and by preparing proper

.
valuation model we can take the benefit of the undervalued companies When a new comer

comes in market. they firstly do some investments but problem rise here their intention is
to do investment on the basis of companies strong fundamental but it convert in to a
trading due to fear of loss, psychological presser, sort first time profit. so to prevent sort
term mistakes they need some knowledge of technical analysis. Finally the combination of
knowledge of fundamental analysis and technical analysis will give better understanding of
stocks.

Need and Scope of the Research

According to the investor point of view the need of this research is essential because world
of automobile is changing. Automobile industry changing its interest from fuel to electric.
So the Consumption of petroleum product like petrol, diesel, and ceresin will down. So
there is need to Study oil and gas industry with the view of understanding current situation.
The study will help THE INVESTOR to measure the impact of important happening on oil
and gas industry. day by day people get greedy to invest their money in stock market to get
the Higher return as compared to other investment options like bank FD, government
bonds, other government securities etc.

TITLE
THE FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF OIL AND GAS
INDUSTRY

25
3.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVE
1. To analyze the performance of selected oil and gas industry stocks NSE through Ratio
analysis.
2. To find trading opportunity in listed in selected oil and gas industry stocks NSE through
Technical analysis.
3. To understand trends in share price movements using Simple Moving
Average, exponential moving averages and trend line.

3.3 RESEARCH DESIGN

Exploratory research

Exploratory research is defined as a research used to investigate a problem which is not

clearly defined. It is conducted to have a better understanding of the existing problem, but
will not provide conclusive results. For such a research, a researcher starts with a general
idea and uses this research as a medium to identify issues, that can be the focus for future
research. An important aspect here is that the researcher should be willing to change
his/her direction subject to the revelation of new data or insight. Such a research is usually
carried out when the problem is at a preliminary stage. It is often referred to as grounded
theory approach or interpretive research as it used to answer questions like what, why and
how.

Descriptive research

is one of three basic types of research design. It is a quantitative research method that is
considered conclusive and is used to test specific hypotheses and describe characteristics or
functions. Descriptive research should have a clear and accurate research

question/problem.

26
Causal research

Causal research an be defined as a research method that is used to determine the cause and
effect relationship between two variables. This research is used mainly to identify the cause
of the given behavior. Using causal research, we decide what variations take place in an
independent variable with the change in the dependent variable..

In this study researcher used descriptive research design in which cross sectional
study is been used.

3.4 DATA COLLECTION

This study is based on secondary data and shall be drawn from national stock exchange
website and also from money control.com, ticker tape, trading view.com.

Types of Data

In this report researcher used secondary data and also used closing price of selected stocks.
Financial statement of selected companies.

Data Collection

FOR fundamental analysis researcher has taken the data from 2011-2012 to 2019-2020,as
well as for Technical analysis researcher has taken the data of 2019-2021 (Short term)

27
3.5 SAMPLING DESIGN

POPULATION – NIFTY 500

SAMPLING FRAME- NIFTY 500 (oil and gas industry stocks)

SAMPLE- Reliance (Reliance Industries Ltd.)

ONGC (Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.)
OIC (Oil India Ltd.)
IOC (Indian Oil Corporation Ltd.)
BPCL (Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd.)
HPCL (Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd.)
SAMPLING TECHNIQE- SNOWBALL SAMPLING TECHNIQE of Non-Probability
sampling technique.
This is a sampling technique, in which existing subjects provide referrals to
recruit samples required for a research study.

3.6 DATA PROCESSING

In data processing researcher used charts, patterns, bar, line, table, technical indicator as
data representation tools. The study is based on secondary data that is get from various
online platform. Microsoft excel was employed to evaluate the data. The data was
quantitatively presentation in table and charts. Descriptive statistical tool mean was
employed to analyze the collected data.

28
3.7 LIMITATIONS OF THE REPORT

1. Due to Time limitation researcher has taken limited Years of data to study the research
rather than more number of years

2. Limited technical indicators used in this research.

3. Due to complexity only ratio analysis tool used in fundamental analysis.

4. FY 2020-2021 financial data was not available at the time of research. That’s way
researcher taken data till FY2019-2020.

29
 CH-4
Data Analysis & Interpretation

30
4.1 Fundamental analysis

4.1.1 DATA INTERPRETATION

1. EPS ( Earning per share):

Earnings per share (EPS) is a company's net profit divided by the number of common
shares it has outstanding.

EPS indicates how much money a company makes for each share of its stock and is a
widely used metric for estimating corporate value.

A higher EPS indicates greater value because investors will pay more for a company's
shares if they think the company has higher profits relative to its share price.10

TABLE 1 :- EPS OF OIL AND GAS COMAPANIES

YEAR RELIANCE IOC OIL HPCL BPCL ONGC
2012 61.21 16 57.34 26.92 36.27 29
2013 64.82 21 59.71 26.72 36.55 24.46
2014 68.05 29 49.59 51.2 56.16 25.83
2015 70.25 22 41.76 80.72 70.32 21
2016 84.66 23.72 28.72 114.07 102.78 12.58
2017 96.73 20.16 13.13 40.74 40.87 13.95
2018 53.04 22.52 23.32 41.72 40.55 15.54
2019 55.47 17.89 22.88 39.56 36.26 20.86
2020 48.75 1.43 23.83 17.31 13.64 10.69
MEAN 66.99778 19.30222 35.58667 48.77333 48.15556 19.32333

10
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31
CHART 1:- EPS OF OIL AND GAS COMAPANIES
120

100

80 RELIANCE
IOC
60 OIL
HPCL
40 BPCL
ONGC
20

0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

TABLE 1 depicts the EPS for the year 2012-2020, that also shows that the RELIANCE
INDUSTRIES has maximum MEAN value of 66.99778 per share, HPCL was the second
in EPS with average earnings of 48.77 & other company like BPCL, OIL, ONGC, IOC
account for One by one growth in EPS. In the context with regard of year 2020 which has
effect of covid-19, all companies has low EPS as compare previous year.IOC bear worst
earrings with 1.43 rupee per share. Among this RELIANCE performed well than other
companies in 2020.

32
2. PE RATIO (Price to earning ratio):

P/E Ratio=Earnings per share/Market value per share

The price-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) relates a company's share price to its earnings per
share.
A high P/E ratio could mean that a company's stock is over-valued, or else that investors
are expecting high growth rates in the future.
Companies that have no earnings or that are losing money do not have a P/E ratio since
there is nothing to put in the denominator.11

TABLE 2:- PE OF OIL AND GAS COMAPANIES

YEAR RELIANCE IOC OIL HPCL BPCL ONGC
2012 6.07384 4.105 4.44454 2.50632 3.21781 6.16897
2013 5.90589 3.352 4.27701 2.37201 3.4446 8.48733
2014 6.77458 2.428 4.88062 1.34453 2.73059 8.22571
2015 5.82377 4.189 5.44732 1.7889 3.84343 9.72524
2016 6.11505 4.148 5.44916 1.53467 2.93287 11.3458
2017 6.76367 9.5997 16.9482 8.60162 10.6002 13.2617
2018 16.4859 7.841 9.27744 8.26582 10.5413 11.4414
2019 24.3456 9.1 8.10533 7.17518 10.9639 7.6582
2020 20.798 57.098 3.46832 10.9821 31.3746 6.38915
MEAN 11.00958 11.31786 6.921995 4.95235 8.849922 9.189278

11
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33
 CHART 2:- PE OF OIL AND GAS COMAPANIES
60

50

40 RELIANCE
IOC

30 OIL
HPCL
20 BPCL
ONGC
10

0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

TABLE 2 represents the PE RATIO for the year 2012-2020, that also shows that the HPCL
has lowest PE of 4.95. OIL was the second in PE with average PE of 6.92 & other
company like BPCL, ONGC, RELIANCE, IOC account for One by one growth in PE. In
the context with regard of year 2020 which has effect of covid-19, all companies has higher
PE as compare previous year.IOC bear worst Price to earrings with 57.098 . Among this
OIL performed well than other companies in 2020

34
3. ROCE (Return on capital employed)

ROCE= EBIT / Capital Employed

Where: EBIT=Earnings before interest and tax
Capital Employed=Total assets − Current liabilities
This ratio can help to understand how well a company is generating profits from its capital
as it is put to use.
ROCE is one of several profitability ratios that can be used when analyzing a company’s
financials for profitability performance.12

TABLE 3:- ROCE OF OIL AND GAS COMAPANIES

YEAR RELIANCE IOC OIL HPCL BPCL ONGC
2012 12.77 7.79 29.74 6.86 10.39 34.36
2013 11 8.81 27.81 4.72 14.96 25.5
2014 11 10.23 17.65 6.14 18.24 25
2015 12 8.32 13.49 7.26 21.28 18.87
2016 12 15.13 11.97 25.47 27.85 16
2017 11.16 20.2 7.06 22.43 22.77 15.05
2018 12.24 22.35 11.01 18.88 21.26 15.03
2019 10.15 16.23 11.52 5.42 18.38 19.22
2020 8.65 1.15 7.21 19.41 7.68 10.75
MEAN 11.21889 12.24556 15.27333 12.95444 18.09 19.97556

12
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35
CHART 3:- ROCE OF OIL AND GAS COMAPANIES
40

35

30
RELIANCE
25
IOC

20 OIL
HPCL
15
BPCL

10 ONGC

0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

TABLE 3 depicts the ROCE for the year 2012-2020, that also shows that the ONGC has
maximum MEAN value of 19.97556, BPCL was the second in ROCE with average
earnings of 18.09 & other company like OIL, HPCL , IOC, RELIANCE account for One
by one growth in ROCE. In the context with regard of year 2020 which has effect of covid-
19, all companies has low ROCE except HPCL, as compare previous year.IOC bear worst
earrings with 1.15. Among this HPCL performed well than other companies in 2020.

36
4. ROE (Return on equity):

Return on Equity= Net Income/Average Shareholders’ Equity

Return on equity (ROE) measures a corporation's profitability in relation to stockholders’
equity.
Whether an ROE is considered satisfactory will depend on what is normal for the industry
or company peers.
As a shortcut, investors can consider an ROE near the long-term average of the S&P 500
(140) as an acceptable ratio and anything less than 100 as poor.13

TABLE 4:- ROE OF OIL AND GAS COMAPANIES

YEAR RELIANCE IOC OIL HPCL BPCL ONGC
2012 12.97 6.99 20.69 1.34 9.05 24.04
2013 12.29 8.41 19.44 3.82 16.77 17.77
2014 11.69 11.05 14.94 7.98 22.58 17
2015 11 7.88 11.89 10.91 24 13
2016 11.65 14.47 9.91 24.78 28.36 10.42
2017 11.59 20.41 5.73 31.36 28 10.19
2018 11.5 20.34 9.36 25.31 25 10.53
2019 9.77 15.44 9.31 20.6 20.13 13.55
2020 7.76 1.3 9.91 10.09 7.67 6.79
MEAN 11.13556 11.81 12.35333 15.13222 20.17333 13.69889

13
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37
CHART 4:- ROE OF OIL AND GAS COMAPANIES
35

30

25
RELIANCE

20 IOC
OIL
15 HPCL
BPCL
10 ONGC

0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

TABLE 4 depicts the ROE for the year 2012-2020, that also shows that the BPCL has
maximum MEAN value of 20.17, HPCL was the second in ROE with average of 18.09 &
other company like ONGC, OIL, IOC, RELIANCE account for One by one growth in
ROE. In the context with regard of year 2020 which has effect of covid-19, all companies
has low ROE except OIL, as compare previous year.IOC bear worst earrings with 1.3.
Among this OIL performed well than other companies in 2020.

38
5. DEBT TO EQUITY RATIO:

Debt/Equity= Total Liabilities/Total Shareholders’ Equity.

The debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio is used to evaluate a company's financial leverage and is
calculated by dividing a company’s total liabilities by its shareholder equity.

Higher-leverage ratios tend to indicate a company or stock with higher risk to shareholders.

However, the D/E ratio is difficult to compare across industry groups where ideal amounts
of debt will vary.

Investors will often modify the D/E ratio to focus on long-term debt only because the risks
associated with long-term liabilities are different than short-term debt and payables.14

TABLE 5:- D/E RATIO OF OIL AND GAS COMAPANIES

YEAR RELIANCE IOC OIL HPCL BPCL ONGC
2012 0.4 1.33 0 3.09 1.54 0.04
2013 0.46 1.42 0.06 3.46 1.44 0
2014 0.45 1.4 0.47 3.47 1.05 0
2015 0.42 0.94 0.39 2.74 0.58 0.01
2016 0.37 0.66 0.37 0.84 0.58 0
2017 0.37 0.62 0.31 0.82 0.71 0
2018 0.4 0.58 0.32 0.89 0.67 0.13
2019 0.76 0.86 0.42 1.33 0.74 0.11
2020 0.51 1.36 0.36 1.16 1.32 0.07
MEAN 0.46 1.018889 0.3 1.977778 0.958889 0.04

14
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39
CHART 5:- D/E RATIO OF OIL AND GAS COMAPANIES

3.5

3
RELIANCE
2.5
IOC

2 OIL
HPCL
1.5 BPCL
ONGC
1

0.5

0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

TABLE 5 represents the D/E RATIO for the year 2012-2020 that also shows that the
ONGC has lowest D/E of 0.04. OIL was the second in D/E with average D/E of 0.3 &
other company like, , RELIANCE, BPCL, IOC, HPCL account for One by one growth in
D/E. In the context with regard of year 2020 which has effect of covid-19.IOC bear worst
ROCE with1.36. Among this ONGC performed well than other companies in 2020.

40
4.1.2 SEPARATE INTERPRETATION OF COMPANIES.

1. DATA INTERPRETATION of RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD.

From the table 1 TO 5 reliance got EPS of 61.21 and kept increase till 96.73 with a respect
the time period of 2012 to 2017. After that EPS get lower and make EPS of 48.75 in the
year of 2020 with respect to this data PE kept lower till 2017. After that in 2018,2019,2020
get 16.48, 24.34, 20.79 respectively which make negative view for RIL ltd. ROCE get the
similar value from 2012 to 2018 which is 11% to 12.77% which is more than 10%. Seems
good. ROE keep down from 2012 to 2020 which is 12.97% to 7.76%. RILANCE impress
with it D/E ratio with being low dept company which is lower than 1 and being in a range
of 0.37 to 0.46 except one year which is 2019. Overall performance is good except ROE.

2. DATA INTERPRETATION of INDIAN OIL CORPORATION LTD.

From the table 1 to 5 IOC got EPS of 16,21,29 in respective year in 2012,2013,2014. After
that ,it fall down from 2014 to 2000 with EPS of 29 to 1.43 in which 2020 EPS is more less
because of covid-19 effect. This is the reason of 2020 PE touch 57.098 which is more than
SECTORAL PE. This not a good sign for company. ROCE got increase till 2018 but in
2020 it become 1.15 only indicate weakness. Same pattern of ROCE repeated in ROE and
GOT lowest 1.3% . D/P have been performing well till 2019. Company able to manage the
D/E till 2019 but due to covid-19 in 2020 it is 1.36. so overall performance of is good
except year 2020.

3. DATA INTERPRETATION of OIL INDIA LTD.

From the table 1 to 5OIL got continues low EPS from 2013 to 2017 in respective value of
59,49,41,28,13 . After that fall down, EPS got consistency in year of 2018,2019,2020 with
EPS of 23,22,23 in which 2017 EPS is more less than other year. This is the reason of 2017
PE touch 16.94 which is highest in all 9 year. But company getting back on trek with result
of 2018,2019,2020. ROCE got decrease till 2020 with ROCE of 7.2 which indicate bad
management of working capital . Same pattern of ROCE repeated in ROE and GOT low of
9.9 . D/P have been performing well till 2020. Company able to manage the D/E good
41
since 2012 how ever In graph it shows more than 2012’s D/P but 0.36 is overall good
number for company . company performance is good except year 2017 it is a good
opportunity to buy the OIL INDIA due to low risk and high return.

4. DATA INTERPRETATION of HPCL LTD.

From the table 1 to 5HPCL got continues high EPS from 2012 to 2016 in respective value
of 26.92, 26.72, 51.2, 80.72, 114.07 After that. it got fall down EPS with consistency in
year of 2017,2018,2019,2020 with EPS of 40,41,39,17.in which 2016 EPS is highest than
other years. This is the reason of 2016 PE touch 1.53 which is second lowest in all 9 year.
But company is not getting back on trek with result of 2017, 2018,2019,2020. ROCE got
increase till 2020 with ROCE of 19.4 which indicate good management of working capital
. Same pattern of ROCE repeated in ROE and GOT high of 31 in year of 2017 . D/P have
been performing well till 2017. Company able to manage the D/E good since 2012 .it
shows less than 2012’s D/P but 0.82 is overall good number for company . company’s
performance is good except year 2020. it is a good opportunity to buy the OIL INDIA due
to low risk and high return.

5. DATA INTERPRETATION of BPCL LTD.

From the table 1 to 5 BPCL got continues high EPS from 2012 to 2016 in respective value
of 36,36,56,70,102 After that. it got fall down EPS with consistency in year of
2017,2018,2019,2020 with EPS of 40.87,40.55, 36.26,13.64.in which 2016 EPS is highest
than other years. This is the reason of 2016 PE touch 2.93 which is lowest in all 9 year. But
company is not getting back on trek with result of 2017, 2018,2019,2020. ROCE got
increase till 2016 with value of 27.85 which indicate good management of working capital
till 2016 after that it was not good . Same pattern of ROCE repeated in ROE and GOT high
of 28.36 in year of 2016 . D/P have been performing well till 2016. Company able to
manage the D/E good since 2012 to 2019. In 2020 it Got 1.32 which is not good.
company’s performance is good except year 2020. it is a good opportunity to buy the OIL
INDIA due to low risk and high return.

42
6. DATA INTERPRETATION of ONGC LTD.
From the table 1 to 5 which ONGC got continues low EPS from 2012 to 2016 in respective
value of 29,24,25,21,12 After that. it got breakup EPS with consistency in year of
2016,2017,2018,2019, with EPS of12,14,15.54,21.in which 2012 EPS is highest than other
years. This is the reason of 2012 PE touch 6.16 which is lowest in all 9 year. But company
is not getting back on trek with result of 2017, 2018,2019,2020. ROCE got decrease till
2020 with value of 10.75 which indicate bad management of working capital.. Same
pattern of ROCE repeated in ROE and GOT low of 6.79 in year of 2020 . D/P have been
performing well till now. Company able to manage the D/E good since 2012 to 2020. In
2020 it Got 0.07. in 9 year period ,the highest D/P is 0.13& lowest is 0.company’s
performance is not good.

43
4.2:- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

4.2.1:-BRIEF ABOUT SOME TECHNICAL INDICATOR

1. RSI:- The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator used in technical
analysis that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or
oversold conditions in the price of a stock or other asset. The RSI is displayed as an
oscillator (a line graph that moves between two extremes) and can have a reading from 0 to
100. The indicator was originally developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. and introduced in his
seminal 1978 book, “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems.”

Traditional interpretation and usage of the RSI are that values of 70 or above indicate that a
security is becoming overbought or overvalued and may be primed for a trend reversal or
corrective pullback in price. An RSI reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold
or undervalued condition.

The RSI provides technical traders with signals about bullish and bearish price momentum,
and it is often plotted beneath the graph of an asset’s price.

2.MACD:- Moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is a trend-

following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving
averages of a security’s price. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-
period exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA.

The result of that calculation is the MACD line. A nine-day EMA of the MACD called the
"signal line," is then plotted on top of the MACD line, which can function as a trigger for
buy and sell signals. Traders may buy the security when the MACD crosses above its
signal line and sell—or short—the security when the MACD crosses below the signal line.
Moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicators can be interpreted in several
ways, but the more common methods are crossovers, divergences, and rapid rises/falls.

MACD helps investors understand whether the bullish or bearish movement in the price is

44
strengthening or weakening.

3.VOLUME CHART:- Trading volume is a measure of how much of a

given financial asset has traded in a period of time. For stocks, volume is measured in the
number of shares traded and, for futures and options, it is based on how many contracts
have changed hands. The numbers, and other indicators that use volume data, are often
provided with online charts.

Looking at volume patterns over time can help get a sense of the strength or conviction
behind advances and declines in specific stocks and entire markets. The same is true
for options traders, as trading volume is an indicator of an option's current interest. In fact,
volume plays an important role in technical analysis and features prominently among some
key technical indicators.

Volume can be an indicator of market strength, as rising markets on increasing volume are
typically viewed as strong and healthy.

When prices fall on increasing volume, the trend is gathering strength to the downside.

When prices reach new highs (or no lows) on decreasing volume, watch out; a reversal
might be taking shape.

4.BOLLINGER BAND:- A Bollinger Band® is a technical analysis tool defined by a

set of trend lines plotted two standard deviations (positively and negatively) away from
a simple moving average (SMA) of a security's price, but which can be adjusted to user
preferences.

Bollinger Bands were developed and copyrighted by famous technical trader John
Bollinger, designed to discover opportunities that give investors a higher probability of
properly identifying when an asset is oversold or overbought.

The upper and lower bands are typically 2 standard deviations +/- from a 20-day simple
moving average, but can be modified.

45
Bollinger Bands are a highly popular technique. Many traders believe the closer the prices
move to the upper band, the more overbought the market, and the closer the prices move to
the lower band, the more oversold the market. John Bollinger has a set of 22 rules to
follow when using the bands as a trading system.

5.MOVING AVERAGE: - A moving average (MA) is a stock indicator that is

commonly used in technical analysis.

The reason for calculating the moving average of a stock is to help smooth out the price
data over a specified period of time by creating a constantly updated average price.

A simple moving average (SMA) is a calculation that takes the arithmetic mean of a given
set of prices over the specific number of days in the past; for example, over the previous21,
55, 100, and200 period Are used in this research.

Exponential moving averages (EMA) is a weighted average that gives greater importance
to the price of a stock on more recent days, making it an indicator that is more responsive
to new information. 5 and 8 period EMA used in this research.

6.TRAND LINE:- Trend lines indicate the best fit of some data using a single line or
curve.

A single trend line can be applied to a chart to give a clearer picture of the trend.

Trend lines can be applied to the highs and the lows to create a channel.

The time period being analyzed and the exact points used to create a trend line vary from
trader to trader.

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4.2.2:-GUIDE – how to interpret different chart template of same
companies?

There is total 3 template of same company.

1st consist of RSI, BOLLINGER BAND, MACD, VOLUME CHART.

2nd consist of RSI, EMA of 5,8 period, SMA of 21,55,100,200 period, VOLUME CHART.

3rd consist of TREND LINES.

In all 3 templates shows different point of view for different persons. In template ,when
you see one of the indicators indicate some direction and when price follow that indicator
which mean that direction is reliable. Although It happens many times that indicator directs
the bull side initially but price goes fall side and vise versa. To get rid of this problem,
template will help you in much better way. In stand of look at only 1 indicator a person
should go for combination of different indicators. These templates are design by the
researcher on basis of market experience, guidance of mentors, knowledge also.

When indicators from same template indicate same direction which has more possibility to
get success.

In 1st template , if MACD Move up and cross the red line with same time RSI run to
upward like from 20 to 50 and above with candle touching upper band or trailing upper
band of BOLLINGER BAND together with high VOLUME, it shows bullies trend and
Vice versa.

In 2nd template when EMA5 cross EMA 8 it make a bullies trend for short term. If above
same pattern cross SMA21 than it will make a short to medium term bullish trend. Usually
SMA55 recognize as long run player If above pattern cross the SMA55 than it will give
very high chance of bull run . if you see this pattern than you should defiantly go for buy
side and addition in that If VOLUME chart make very high bars than it confirms the bull
run.

47
IN negative way or say bearish way, above shown pattern goes opposite way first EMA 5
cross up to down EMA 8 AFTER that it will cross SMA 21 up to down than it will happen
with SMA55 too.

SMA100, 200 work as support or resistance.

In 3rd template which is form by trend lines can have many trends in a single chart. A trend
foam by a single trend line but most of trends craft by 2 trend line first is support line and
second is resistance line . whenever A candle cross resist line it will convert into as support
line same as with support line , whenever candle or chart or a movement break support line
it will turn as resistance line. when a price movement breaks trend with a very high volume
it makes a new trend.

HERE, EMA 5 = GREEN (exponential moving average)

EMA 8= YELLOW

SMA 21= SKY BLUE (simple moving average)

SMA 55= RED

SMA 100= PURPLE

SMA 200=PINK

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4.2.3:-DATA INTERPRETATION through TECHNICAL
INDICATOR
CHART 6

49
CHART 7

50
CHART 8

51
INTERPRETATION OF RIL LTD.
CHART 6,7,8consist 3 year DATA of RILANCE INDUSTRIES LTD. From April, 2019
to May, 2021. Data shows that stock currently play in a range of 1835 to 2164. This is
suitable for swing traders. In past, the stock surge big rally from 864 to 2300. In currently
RSI plays between 35 to 70, which show swings. MACD is in positive mood. Last 2,3
volume bars are comparatively bigger than other. We can see that some last days candle
cross the resistance line. It mean the stock is ready for bull race but it can give
retracement. So that we should wait and watch the stock to take support of resistance line.
We can see that resist line of 2019-2020became support line of the year of 2021.all
moving average seems positive.

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CHART 9

53
CHART10

54
CHART 11

55
INTERPRETATION OF IOC LTD.

CHART 9,10,11 consist 3 year DATA of INDIAN OIL CORPORATION LTD. From
April 2019 to May 2021. From may 2019 the stock was starting fall down after making
double top pattern it confirms bearish trend and it went very deep down and make a low of
71 in this time frame all moving averages was like a mess, RSI went down with MACD.
In this time period price moved down with sticky bond with lower band of BOLLINGER
BANDI. From sep 2020 it made new trend with higher high and higher low and stop at 105
which was the resistance price point and made bearish trend after breaking support line in
May2021. After breaking the negative trend line it surge long gain also break historical
resistance 105 and now play at 110. RSI support this movement with help of MACD AND
BOLLINGER BAND also VOLUME CHARGE making big bars. Seems like preparation
of ROCKET.

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CHART12

57
CHART 13

58
CHART14

59
INTERPRETATION OF OIL INDIA LTD.
CHART 12,13,14 consist 3 year DATA of OIL INDIA LTD. From April 2019 to May
2021. From 2019 , stocks gave negative trend from 189.70 to 63.5 which is big retracement
. SMA21 played as resistance line. SMA 200 played as resister too. With price run with
lower band of BOLLINGER BAND. After that it surge big move with the support level of
83.12 and touch 136 with support of MOVING AVERAGES, RSI, MACD, moderate
volumes. With this pace it can go for 150 and after 160.

60
CHART 15

61
CHART 16

62
CHART17

63
INTERPRETATION OF HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM
CORPORATION LTD.

CHART 16,17,15 consist 3 year DATA of HPCL LTD. From April 2019 to May 2021
163.76 is historical support . After falling from may2019 in may 2021 it make again
support of trendline which is earlier support of year 2019. At the end of 2020 moving
averages turn in positive. And likely to be continued with support of MACD, RSI where
MACD remain up side of 0 and RSI playing between 40 to 80. In current time price move
with touch of upper band of BOLLINGER BAND. It can go further up to 320 or beyond.

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CHART18

65
CHART 19

66
CHART 20

67
INTERPRETATION OF BHARAT PETROLEUM CORPORATION
LTD.
Chart 19,20,18 consist 3 year DATA of BPCL LTD. From April 2019 to May 2021
Chart showing positive note from the starting point of year 2019. In 2019 it make high of
545 which is historical resistance. Till this time rsi shoots up and enter in the overbought
zone after that rsi moved down ward and touch over sold zone. For this stock
BOLLINGER BAND is very volatile . from 2021 stock go with the bullish trend till now
all MOVING AVERAGES seem positive . RSI play in between 40 to 70. MACD lie on
positive side. In recent time all indicators direct positive. The target is 545 in medium term.

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CHART 21

69
CHART 22

70
CHART 23

71
INTERPRETATION OF OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORPORATION
LTD.
CHART 22, 23, 21 consist 3 year DATA of BPCL LTD. From April 2019 to May 2021.
FROM mid 2019 to 2020 stock perform consist down fall with respect of trend line and
take a historical support in 2020 and after that stock break the 2019`s resistance and race
the bull side. With respect of that RSI touch oversold zone 3 times. In starting of 2021 all
moving averages turn in positive pattern from negative pattern. for now stock facing
HISTORICAL resistance. MACD stay in positive zone from the starting of 2021 but
making lower highs.RSI direct bullish trend from the beginning of 2021.now if it break the
historical resistance than it can surge a big upward move.

72
 CH-5
FINDINGS, RECOMMENDATION,
CONCUSSION

73
5.1:-FINDINGS
From the table 1 of EPS which is Cleary represent the data that RELIANCE earns more
among the companies. RELIANCE has highest average EPS of 66.99 which is expected from
there. Surprisingly IOC earn lowest as compare with other in addition that IOC earned only
1.43 EPS in FY2020 despite the fact that IOC has highest number of petrol pump in India.
HPCL secure second place and BPCL secure third place with respect to EPS. In FY 2016
HPCL and BPCL earn highest EPS in 9 year period 114.07 and 102.78 respectively.

Among 6 companies HPCL has mean value of PE 4.95 which is highest Followed by OIL,
BPCL and ONGC respectively. In FY2016 HPCL score 1.53 due to high EPS of 114 and in
FY2020 IOC score highest PE of 57.098 due to low EPS of 1.43. IN the situation of
Pandemic, OIL able to mange PE of 3.47 which show management’s ability.

Highest mean value of ROCE is 19.97 achieved by ONGC. IN FY 2012 ONGC reach the
pick level of ROCE which was 34.36. Average of ROCE of RELIANCE is less than HPCL
but when we look at data researcher found that in initial year (2012 to 2015) OIL was the
lowest scorer, after 2015 OIL got the SPEED and increased score, in the other side
RELIANCE play between the range of 10 to 13 except FY 2020 where it went down to 8.65.

Performance of ROE is more like same as ROCE table but here BPCL earn 20.17% on
equity. With 15.13% on equity HPCL got second place. In FY 2020 IOC earn only 1.3% on
equity which is lowest. HPCL earn 31.36% in FY 2017 which is highest among companies.
With reference of DEBT TO EQUITY RATIO except HPCL, all companies perform well in
this segment, ONGC, IOC And RELIANCE are almost 0 debt companies. RELIANCE, IOC,
ONGC consistently able to keep D/P ratio lower than 0.8. ONGC got value of D/P ratio 0.00
in FY2013, 2014, 2016, 2017.

Whenever a stock break the trend line it enter in new pattern new trend, after that if rend line
was support than it convert into resistance, If trend line was resistance tan it will convert into
support.

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5.2:-concussion
In this study, the focus is on fundamental and technical analysis on oil and gas Industry
which has been tested by ratios and technical indicators. This study is based on comparative
analysis of ratios of selected companies and analyzing technical daily price movement
through technical indicators. The study has tried to get buy, sell recommendation through
technical and financial capability through ratio. 2012-2020 data used for fundamental
and2019-2021 data used for technical. Secondary data used for this study. The study is useful
for beginners who just enter in the market and trying to get knowledge about “how market
works?” This study provide full package of knowledge about fundamental through ratio and
technical through indicators. this study prove that combination of technical indicator give
better understanding about price movement. Designing of tread line over indicator provide
more precision.

5.3:-recommendations
The recommendation is based on findings and concussion done through research. This
recommendation provide buy , sell signal for long term as well as short term basis.

General recommendation :- at time of breakout or break down investor should look at

VOLUME CHART.
1. RELIANCE INDUSTRIES
For long term ( >1 year):- The financials of company seems good for investment. One
should invest in RELIANCE after breakout of 2300.

For short term(<1year):- ideal for swing tread , BUY at 1850 sell at 2250.

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2. INDIAN OIL CORPORATION
For long term(>1 year):-not recommend for long term investment , wait for upcoming
results.

For short term(<1year):- buy at 110 , sell at 130.

3. OIL INDIA LIMITED

For long term(>1 year):-wait for the breakout of 151-153.

For short term(<1year):-buy at 136, sell at 151

4. HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM CORPORATION LIMITED

For long term(>1 year):-wait for the breakout of 308.

For short term(<1year):-buy at 280-283,sell at 308-310.

5. BHARAT PETROLEUM CORPORATION LIMITED

For long term(>1 year):-wait for the breakout of 481

For short term(<1year):-buy at 440, sell at 480 .

short at 485, Target 440 (SWING TREAD)

6. OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORPORATION LIMITED

For long term(>1 year):-wait for the breakout of 120

For short term(<1year):-buy at 120, sell at 148.

Short at 118, target 88.
( if price touch resistance level and move down with high volume)

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