The Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability

The multiplication rules can be used to find the probability of two or more events that occur in

sequence. For example, if a coin is tossed and then a die is rolled, one can find the probability of

getting a head on the coin and a 4 on the die. These two events are said to be independent since

the outcome of the first event (tossing a coin) does not affect the probability outcome of the second

event (rolling a die).

Independent Events

Two events A and B are independent events if the fact that A occurs does not affect the

probability of B occurring.

1. When two events are independent, the probability of both occurring is

P( A and B)  P( A)  P( B)

Example

A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on

the die. Solution

P(head and 4)  P(head )  P(4)

1 1
 
2 6
1

12

Note that the sample space for the coin is H, T; and for the die it is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

Example

1
A card is drawn from a deck and replaced; then a second card is drawn. Find the probability of

getting a queen and then an ace.

Solution

4
The probability of getting a queen is , and since the card is replaced, the probability of getting
52

4
an ace is . Hence, the probability of getting a queen and an ace is
52

P(queen and ace)  P(queen)  P(ace)

4 4
 
52 52
1

169

Example

An urn contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls, and 5 white balls. A ball is selected and its color noted.

Then it is replaced. A second ball is selected and its color noted. Find the probability of each of

these:

a. Selecting 2 blue balls

b. Selecting 1 blue ball and then 1 white ball

c. Selecting 1 red ball and then 1 blue ball

Solution

a.) P(blue and blue)  P(blue)  P(blue)

2 2
 
10 10
1

25

2
 b.) P(blue and white)  P(blue)  P( white)
2 5
 
10 10
1

10

c.) P(red and blue)  P(red )  P(blue)

3 2
 
10 10
3

50

Example

A poll found that 46% of Americans say they suffer great stress at least once a week. If three

people are selected at random, find the probability that all three will say that they suffer great

stress at least once a week.

Solution

Let S denote stress. Then

P( S and S and S )  P( S )  P( S )  P( S )
 0.46  0.46  0.46
 0.097

Dependent Events

When the outcome or occurrence of the first event affects the outcome or occurrence of the second

event in such a way that the probability is changed, the events are said to be dependent events.

To find probabilities when events are dependent, use the multiplication rule with a modification in

notation. For example, in drawing a card from a deck of cards and not replacing it, and then

3
 4
drawing a second card, the probability of getting an ace on the first draw is , and the probability
52

4
of getting a king on the second draw is . By the multiplication rule, the probability of both
51

events occurring is

4 4 4
 
52 51 663

The event of getting a king on the second draw given that an ace was drawn the first time is called

a conditional probability. The conditional probability of an event B in relationship to an event A

is the prob ability that event B occurs after event A has already occurred. The notation for

conditional probability is P(B|A). This notation does not mean that B is divided by A; rather, it

means the probability that event B occurs given that event A has already occurred. In the card

example, P(B|A) is the probability that the second card is a king given that the first card is an ace,

4
and it is equal to since the first card was not replaced.
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When two events are dependent, the probability of both occurring is

P( A and B)  P( A)  P( B | A)

Example

An Insurance Company found that 53% of the residents of a city had homeowner’s insurance (H)

with the company. Of these clients, 27% also had automobile insurance (A) with the company. If

a resident is selected at random, find the probability that the resident has both homeowner’s and

automobile insurance with the Insurance Company.

Solution

4
P( A and H )  P( H )  P( A | H )
 0.53  0.27
 0.1431

Example

Three cards are drawn from an ordinary deck and not replaced. Find the probability of these events.

a.) Getting 3 jacks

b.) Getting an ace, a king, and a queen in order

c.) Getting a club, a spade, and a heart in order

d.) Getting 3 clubs

Solution

a.) P( Jack and Jack and Jack )  P(blue)  P(blue)

4 3 2
  
52 51 50
1

5525

b.) P(ace and king and queen)  P(ace)  P(king )  P(queen)

4 4 4
  
52 51 50
8

16575

c.) P(c lub and spade and heart )  P(c lub)  P ( spade)  P (heart )
13 13 13
  
52 51 50
169

10200

5
d .) P(c lub and c lub and c lub)  P(c lub)  P (c lub)  P (c lub)
13 12 11
  
52 51 50
11

850

Example

Box 1 contains 2 red balls and 1 blue ball. Box 2 contains 3 blue balls and 1 red ball. A coin is

tossed. If it falls heads up, box 1 is selected and a ball is drawn. If it falls tails up, box 2 is selected

and a ball is drawn. Find the probability of selecting a red ball.

Solution

1
Since a coin is being tossed for the box selection with head for box 1 and probability or tails
2

1
for box 2 with probability . Then the probabilities for choosing the balls are then found by using
2

the basic probability rule.

Next multiply the probability for each outcome, using the rule P( A and B)  P( A)  P( B | A) .

Thus, a red ball can be selected from either box 1 or box 2 such that

1 2 1 1
P(red )    
2 3 2 4
3

8

Conditional Probability

The probability that the second event B occurs given that the first event A has occurred can be

found by dividing the probability that both events occurred by the probability that the first event

has occurred. The formula is

6
 P ( A and B )
P( B | A) 
P( A)

Example

A box contains black chips and white chips. A person selects two chips without replacement. If

15
the probability of selecting a black chip and a white chip is , and the probability of selecting a
56

3
black chip on the first draw is , find the probability of selecting the white chip on the second
8

draw, given that the first chip selected was a black chip.

Solution

Let B equal to selecting a black chip

W equal to selecting a white chip.

P ( A and B )
P( B | A) 
P( A)
15
 56
3
8

5

7

Example

The probability that Sam parks in a no-parking zone and gets a parking ticket is 0.06, and the

probability that Sam cannot find a legal parking space and has to park in the no parking zone is

0.20. On Tuesday, Sam arrives at school and has to park in a no-parking zone. Find the probability

that he will get a parking ticket.

Solution

7
N = parking in a no-parking zone

T = getting a ticket

P (T and N )
P (T | N ) 
P( N )
0.06

0.20
 0.3

Example

A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought women in the armed forces should be permitted

to participate in combat. The results of the survey are shown.

Gender Yes No

Male 32 18

Female 8 42

Find these probabilities.

a.) The respondent answered yes, given that the respondent was a female.

b.) The respondent was a male, given that the respondent answered no.

Solution

M is respondent was a male

Y is respondent answered yes

F is respondent was a female

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N is respondent answered no

a.) The problem is to find P(Y | F )

8
P(Y and F ) 
100
50
P( F ) 
100
P(Y and F )
P(Y | F ) 
P( F )
8
 100
50
100

4

25

b.) The problem is to find P( M | N )

18
P( M and N ) 
100
60
P( N ) 
100
P( M and N )
P( M | N ) 
P( N )
18
 100
60
100

3

10

Probabilities for “At Least”

Example

A coin is tossed 5 times. Find the probability of getting at least 1 tail.

Solution

9
It is easier to find the probability of the complement of the event, which is “all heads,” and then

subtract the probability from 1 to get the probability of at least 1 tail.

1 1 1 1 1
P (all heads )     
2 2 2 2 2
1

32
P (at least 1 tail )  1  P (all heads )
P( E )  1  P( E c )
1
 1
32
31

32

Example

The Neckwear Stores reported that 3% of ties sold in Nigeria are bow ties. If 4 customers who

purchased a tie are randomly selected, find the probability that at least 1 purchased a bow tie.

Solution

Let E be at least 1 bow tie is purchased

E c be no bow ties are purchased. Then

P( E )  0.03
P( E c )  1  0.03  0.97
P( E c )  0.97  0.97  0.97  0.97
 0.885
 P ( E )  1  0.885
 0.115

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Probability and Counting Rules

The counting rules can be combined with the probability rules to solve many types of probability

problems. By using the basic counting rule, the permutation, and the combination rule, one can

compute the probability of outcomes of many experiments.

Example

Find the probability of getting 4 aces when 5 cards are drawn from an ordinary deck of cards.

Solution

52
There are C5 ways to draw 5 cards from a deck and there is 4 C4 (only 1) way to get 4 aces.

4
C4 48 C1
P (4 aces )  52
C5
1

54145

EXAMPLE

If 3 balls are randomly drawn from a bag containing 6 white and 5 black balls, what is the

probability that one of the balls is white and the other two black?

SOLUTION

C1  5C2 4
6
P 1 White, 2 Black balls   11

C3 11

EXAMPLE

A committee of 5 is to be selected from a group of 6 men and 9 women. If the selection is made

randomly, what is the probability that the committee consists 3 men and 2 women?

11
SOLUTION

C3  9C2 240
6
P  3 men, 2 women   15 
C5 1001

EXAMPLE

A bag contains n balls, one of which is special. If k of these balls are withdrawn one at a time,

with each selection being equally likely to be any of the balls that remain at the time, what is the

probability that the special ball gets chosen?

SOLUTION

C1  n 1Ck 1 k
1
P  Special ball   n

Ck n

EXAMPLE

Two students are chosen at random from a class of 18 boys and 12 girls. What is the probability

that the two students selected are 1 boy and 1 girl?

SOLUTION

18
C1  12C1 72
P 1boy,1 girl   30

C2 145

CLASS ACTIVITY

1. Two fair coins are tossed. Determine the probability that:

a.) Two heads occur

b.) At least one head occurs

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2. From a committee of 3 males and 4 females, a subcommittee of 4 is to be randomly

selected. Find the probability that it consists of 2 males and 2 females.

3. From a production run of 5000 phones, 2% of which are defective, 1 phone is selected at

random.

a.) What is the probability that the phone is defective?

b.) What is the probability that the phone is not defective?

4. A customer visiting a boutique will purchase a suit with probability 0.22, a shirt with

probability 0.3, and a tie with probability 0.28. The customer will purchase both a suit

and a shirt with probability 0.11, both a suit and a tie with probability 0.14, and both a

shirt and a tie with probability 0.10. A customer will purchase all 3 items with probability

0.06. What is the probability that the customer purchases:

a.) none of these items?

b.) exactly 1 of these items?

5. A boy has 2 red balls and 3 blue balls in a bag. He selects 2 balls at random from the bag.

Find the probability that both are blue.

6. A group preparing for class presentation consists of 5 girls and 3 boys. Two group

members are selected at random to present their work. What is the probability that 1 is a

girl and 1 a boy?

7. A student must choose 3 courses from a list of 7 courses. The list includes 4 engineering

and 3 economics courses. If the selection is made at random, what is the probability that 2

engineering and 1 economics course will be chosen?

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