w;a m;%sld wxl - 3 HPD-DSS

iïNdú;dj ms<sn| ye¢kaùu (INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY)

úYajh mQ¾K ksIaÑ; isoaëkaf.ka hq;a tlla fkdjk neúka" tÈfkod Ôú;fha fndfyda wjia:djkays§ yuqjk
isÿùï iuÕ ne£ mj;skqfha oeä wúksYaÑ;;djhls' tkï hï fohla isÿfõùo keoao ms<sn| mj;skqfha
wmyeÈ,s;djhls' kuq;a fuu wúksYaÑ;;dfjys úYd,;ajh ms<sn| jvd fyd| ksrjq,a wjfndaOhla iys;j tÈfkod
lghq;= j,g fhduq ùug yelskï" ta ;=<ska wjOdku wvqjk f,i ksjerÈ ;SrK j,g t<öug wjia:dj
,efnkjd fiau wod< lghq;= id¾:l lr.ekSugo mq¿,a odhl;ajh ,ndfoa' iïNdú;d ixl,amh ;=<ska fuu
tÈfkod iïnkaO jk ld¾hhkays mj;sk wúksYaÑ;;djfhys ;ru ms<sn| woyila ,ndfok neúka —iïNdú;dj˜
wúksYaÑ;;djh uekSfï ñkqula ^PROBABILITY IS A MEASURE OF UNCERTAINTY& f,i ye¢kaúh
yelsh' fï ksid iïNdú;dj ixLHdk úoHdfõ moku jYfhka ye¢kaùu jvd;a idOdrK fõ' ta wkqj fuu
iïNdú;d ixl,amh ms<sn| uQ,sl woyila ,nd§ug fuhska wfmalaId flf¾'

iiïNdù mÍlaIK ^RANDOM EXPERIMENTS&

iiïNdù mßlaIKhla hkq tys m%;st,hka wyUq f,i ;SrKh jkq ,nk fyd¢ka w¾: oelajQ mqkrdj¾;
l%shdj,shla jk w;r th my; wjYH;d imqrd,hs'
i. mÍlaIKh isÿlsÍug fmr" tys ish¨ m%;st,hka we;=<;a l=,lh oek.; yelsùu.
ii. mßlaIKh isÿlsÍug fmr tys m%;st,h ksYaÑ; f,i oek.; fkdyels ùu.
iii. i¾jiu ;;a;aj hgf;a mÍlaIKh kej; kej; isÿl,o" tajdys m%;st, l,ska oek.; fkdyelsùu.

ksoiqk 1 ( idOdrK ldishla Wv oeóu

ksoiqk 2 ( wxl 1 isg 6 olajd i|yka me;s 6 la iys; idOdrK odÿleghla Wv oeóu
ksoiqk 3 ( lsishï iud.ula ksIamdokh lrk gh¾j, Odjk ÿr ks¾Kh lsßu

ksheÈ wjldYh ^SAMPLE SPACE&

iiïNdù mÍlaIKhl§ ,eìh yels ish¿u m%;st,hka we;=<;a l=,lh ksheÈ wjldYh jYfhka ye¢kaúh yels
w;r th idudkHfhka S u.ska ixfla;j;a flf¾' fï wkqj iiïNdù mÍlaIKfha tla m%;st,hla fyj;a ksheÈ
wjldYfha wjhjhla ksheÈ ,laIhla f,i y÷kajkq ,nhs'

ksoiqk 1 (idOdrK ldishla Wv oeófï mÍlaIKfha m%;st, S = H , T  fõ'

ksoiqk 2 (wxl 1 isg 6 olajd i|yka me;s 6 la iys; idOdrK odÿleghla Wv oeófï mÍlaIKfha m%;st,
S = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 fõ'
ksoiqk 3 (idOdrK odÿ leg folla Wvoeófï mÍlaIfha m%;st,
 (1, 1) (1, 2)  (1, 6) 
(2, 1) (2, 2)  (2, 6) fõ'

S = 
  
(6, 1) (6, 2)  (6, 6)
ksoiqk 4 (idOdrK ldishla iy idOdrK odÿ leghal Wv oeófu mÍlaIKfha m%;st,
S = (H , 1), (H , 2 ),  , (H , 6 ), (T , 1), (T , 2 ),  , (T , 6 ) fõ'
by; ksheÈ wjldYhka m%ia:drhla fyda rela igyka u.ska o bÈßm;a l, yels fõ'

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isoaê ^EVENTS&

mÍlaIKhl m%;st, we;=<;a ksheÈ wjldYfha ´kEu Wml=,lhla isoaêhla f,i ye¢kafõ' wNsY+kH l=,lh ( )
iy ksheÈ wjldYh (S ) o isoaëka f,i ie,lsh yels w;r wNsY+kH ( ) hkq lsisfia;a úh fkdyels isoaêhla f,io
ksheÈ wjldYh (S ) hkq ksYaÑ;j isÿjk isoaêhla f,io ye¢kafõ'

ksoiqk 1 (idOdrK ldishla Wv oeófï mÍlaIKfha —ysi˜ (H ) ,eîu fyda —w.h˜ (T ) ,eîu.
ksoiqk 2 (idOdrK odÿ leghla Wv oeófï mÍlaIKfha —T;af;a˜ fyda —brÜfܘ ixLHdjla ,eîu.
ksoiqk 3 (idOdrK odÿ leg folla Wv oeófï mÍlaIKfha Wvql=re uqyqK;a foflys i|yka w.hkaf.a tl;=j
my 5 ùu

ir, isoaê ^SIMPLE EVENTS&

fjk;a isoaëka folla fyda lsysmhlg úfNaokh l, fkdyels isoaëka ir, isoaëka f,i ye¢kafjk w;r tajd
idudkHfhka si u.ska ixfla;j;a flf¾'
ksoiqk 1 (idOdrK ldishla Wv oeófï mßlaIKfha ksheÈ wjldYh jk S = H , T  ys H iy T ir, isoaë fõ'
ksoiqk 2 (idOdrK odÿ leghla Wv oeófï mÍlaIKfha ksheÈ wjldYh jk S = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ys
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 iy 6 hkq ir, isoaê fõ'

isoaê wjldYh ^EVENT SPACE&

ksheÈ wjldYhla ;=, w¾: olajd we;s isoaêhlg wkqrEm ksheÈ ,laIhkaf.a tl;=j isoaê wjldYhla f,i
ye¢kaúh yelsh'
ksoiqk ( idOdrK odÿ leghla Wv oeófï mÍlaIKfha m%;st, u; w¾: oelajQ isoaêhla f,i T;af;a ixLHdjla
,eîfï isoaêh A f,i oelajQjfyd;a" A = 1, 3, 5  hkq A kï isoaêfhys wjldYh fõ' th my; f,i fjka
rEm igykla u.ska ksrEmkh lr oelaúh yelsh'

1 3 5 A isoaê wjldYh

2 4 6

iïNdú;dj ms<sn| ixl,am ^CONCERPTS OF PROBABILITY&

iïNdú;d ixl,amh wOHhkh lsÍfï§ ta ms<sn| jeo.;a msúiqï 4 la y÷kd.; yels w;r fuu tla tla msúiqu
ms<sn| wjfndaOhla ,nd.ekSu fuys§ wfmalaId flf¾'

wdÑkak l,amsl msúiqu ^CLASSICAL APPROCH& ^OBJECTIVE PROBABILITY &

iïNdú;dj ms<sn| wdÑkak l,amsl mssúiqu hkq iïNdú;dj ms<sn| ;d¾lslj is;Sfï m%;st,hls' ta wkqj hï
mÍlaIKhla iuNjH;djhlska hq;a m%;st, N m%udKhla we;s lrhs kï iy thska m%;st, n m%udKhla lsishï

isoaêhlg mlaImd; kï túg tu isoaêh ùfï iïNdú;dj n jYfhka w¾: oelafõ' tkï
N

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lsishï isoaêhla ùfï iïNdú;dj (Pr) = ( n) fï wkqj A hkq isoaêhla kï" Pr( A) = n fõ'
(N ) N
;d¾lsl lreKq u;u mokïj lsisu mÍlaIKhla lsÍug fmr iïNdú;d m%ldYhka l< yels neúka fuh
fndfyda úg mQ¾j ksYaÑ; iïNdú;dj f,i ye¢kafõ'

idfmalaI ixLHd; msúiqu ^RELATIVE FREQUENCY APPROCH& ^EMPERICAL PROBABILITY&

idfmalaI ixLHd; msúiqfuys§ fhduqjkqfha mÍlaIKhl m%;st, weiqßka iïNdú;dj w¾: oelaùu flfrysh' ta
wkqj lsishï iiïNdù mÍlaIKhla i¾jiu ;;a;ajhka hgf;a N jdr .Kkla isÿlrk ,o kï yd tu N
mÍlaIK jdr j,ska n m%udKhla A kï isoaêhla isÿjQfha kï A kï isoaêh isÿùfï iïNdú;dj
n u.ska fokq ,efí' tfia ke;skï b;d úYd, jdr .KklÈ hï isoaêhl ksÍlaIs;
Pr( A) = &Û´$(N →  )
N
idfmalaI ixLHd;h f,io fuu msúiqug wkqj iïNdú;dj w¾: oelafõ'

mqoa., noaO msúiqu ^SUBJECTIVE APPROCH&

lsishï isoaêhlg wod< iïNdú;dj mejÍfï§" th isÿlrkq ,nk mqoa.,hdf.a úYajdih fyda yeÕSï" oekSï u;
mokïjk nj fuu msúiqfï§ woyia flf¾' tkï lsishï isoaêhla miqìïjkakd jQ lafIa;%h ms<sn| mqoa.,fhl=g
mj;sk w;S; f;dr;=re tl;+k"a w;aoelSï" oekqu úiajdih iy úksYaphka u; iïNdú;d w.hla mejÍu isÿlrkq
,nk l%uhla f,io fuu msúiqu y÷kajd Èh yelsh' tneúka fuh iïNdú;djka mejÍfï by;ska idlÉPd l<
l%uhkg jvd jeä kuH;djhla iys; mssúiquls'

.‚;uh msúiqu ^MATHEMATICAL APPROCH&

.‚;uh msúiqu hkq iïNdú;dj ms<sn| w¾: oelaùula fkdjk w;r thska wfmalaId lrkqfha iïNdú;dj iy
.‚;h w;r iïnkaO;djhla f.dvke.Suhs' tkï m%;HhlaIhka lsysmhla f.dvke.Su flfrys fhduq fõ'
lsishï iiïNdù mÍlaIKhl ksheÈ wjldYh S yd Bg wkqrEm isoaëka mka;sh ^CLASS OF EVENTS&
 f,i ie,l+úg iy Pr hkq  u; w¾: oelajQ ;d;aúl w.hka iys; Y%s;hla kï" túg Pr my; m%;HlaIhka
imqrd,hs kï" th iïNdú;d Y%s;hla hehs ye¢kafjk w;r Pr ( A) hkq A kï isoaêfha iïNdú;dj f,i ye¢kafõ'
i. 0  Pr ( A)  1 ,  A

ii. Pr(S ) = 1

iii. A yd B hkq  ys wfkHdakH jYfhka nysIaldr isoaëka folla kï Pr( A  B) = Pr( A) + Pr(B)

iv. A1 , A2 ,  hkq wfkHdakH jYfhka nysIaldr isoaëka wkql%uhla kï Pr ( A1  A2 ) = Pr ( A1 ) + Pr ( A2 ) + 

isoaëka ixhqla; lsÍu ^COMBINING OF EVENTS&

fndfyda iiïNdù mÍlaIKj,§ tu mÍlaIKhkag wkqrEm isoaëka ixhqla; lsÍu wjYH fõ' fuf,i isoaëka
ixhqla; lsÍfï m%Odk l%u folla f,i l=,l l%s%hdldrlï folla jk fï,h ^UNION& fþokh
^INTERSECTION) oelaúh yelsh'

fï,h ^UNION&
A iy B hkq S kï ksheÈ wjldYfhys isoaëka folla úg" A isoaê wjldYhg fyda B isoaê wjldYhg fyda fuu
isoaê wjldYhka folgu wh;a jk ish¿u ksheÈ ,laIhka A iy B ys fï,h jYfhka ye¢kafjk w;r th
( A  B) u.ska ixfla;j;a flf¾'
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fþokh ^INTERSERTION&
A iy B hkq kï ksheÈ wjldYfhys isoaëka folla úg" A isoaê wjldYhg iy B isoaê wjldYhg whs;s ish¨u
ksheÈ ,laIhla A iy B ys fþokh jk w;r th ( A  B )u.ska ixfla;j;a flf¾'

ksoiqk 1( idOdrK ldishla tla jrla Wv oeófï mÍlaIKhl§

i. ysi ^H& ,eîfï
ii. ysi ^H& fyda w.h ^T& ,eîfï iïNdú;djka fidhkak'
ksoiqk 2( idOdrK odÿ leghla tla jrla Wv oeófï mÍlaIKhl§ ,efnk w.h
i. 3 ys .=Kdldrhla ùfï
ii. 2 g jvd úYd, ixLHdjla ùfï
iii. 7 g jvd wvq ixLHdjla ,eîfï iïNdú;djka fidhkak'
ksoiqk 3( idOdrK odÿ leg folla tljr Wv oeófï mÍlaIKhl§
i. odÿ leg foflau iudk w.hka ,eîfï
ii. odÿ leg fofla ,efnk ixLHd fofla tl;=j 6 g jvd jeäùfï
iii. odÿ leg fofla ,efnk ixLHd j, wka;rh 3 g jvd jeä ùfï iïNdú;djka fidhkak'
ksoiqk 4( idOdrK ldishla iy idOdrK odÿ leghla tljr Wv oeófï mÍlaIKhl§
i. isri iy 4 ,eîfï
ii. w.h iy 7 ,eîfï
iii. isri iy brÜfÜ ixLHdjla ,eîfï iïNdú;djka fidhkak
ksoiqk 5( tla;rd iud.ul l<ukdlrejka 4 fofklao úOdhl ks,OdÍka 14 la o ,smslrefjda 36 lao isá;s'
fuu iud.fï fiajlhskaf.ka 5 fofkl= wyUq f,i f;dard.; fyd;a
i. Tjqka mia fokdu ,smslrejka ùfï
ii. Tjqkaf.ka fofofkl= l<ukdlrejkao" fofofkl= úOdhl ks,OdÍkao" tla wfhl= ,sms lrefjlao ùfï
iïNdú;djka fidhkak'
ksoiqk 6( idOdrK ldishla 3 jrla Wv oeófï mÍlaIKhl§ A hkq wvq jYfhka ysia folla ,eîu iy B
hkq iEu jdrhl§u tlu me;a; ,eîu hk isoaëka folla kï Pr ( A  B ) iy Pr ( A  B ) fidhkak'

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