Global Overview of the Agriculture Industry

December 2022

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at time of publication: December 2022
Contents

Introduction

Global overview

Leading companies

Global outlook

Country snapshots

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 Introduction

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 INTRODUCTION 55

Scope

Cereals and Crops The briefing examines how the agriculture

industry performs globally and in the largest
countries in terms of agricultural output. The
Fruits and Vegetables report also provides data for production,
market size, imports, exports, industry costs,
Cattle industry profitability and number of
companies. The industry and market overview
Agriculture (2021) Swine and Pigs
provide benchmarks against other countries in
the region.
USD6 trillion
Poultry

Other Animals

Agricultural Services and Hunting Disclaimer

Much of the information in this briefing is of a
statistical nature and, while every attempt has
This report analyses the global agriculture industry, which includes the above core categories. been made to ensure accuracy and reliability,
Euromonitor International cannot be held
Unless otherwise noted, all values expressed in this report are in US dollar terms, using year- responsible for omissions or errors.
on-year exchange rates. Figures in tables and analyses are calculated
from unrounded data and may not sum. Analyses
All forecast data is expressed in current terms. The historic period refers to 2016-2021; the found in the briefings may not totally reflect the
forecast period is 2022-2026. companies’ opinions, reader discretion is advised.

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 INTRODUCTION 66

Examining four trends shaping the agriculture industry

Trends Expected long-term implications Medium-term Long-term

The increasing cost of raw materials, shipping, labour wages and energy crisis,
further fuelled by the war in Ukraine, have led to a global supply chain crisis that
Supply chain crisis
drives strong price increases and puts farmers’ profits under severe pressure. To
secure domestic supply, governments respond by limiting their export activity.

China is the world’s largest importer as domestic demand for meat and high-quality
Feeding the growing crops soars driven by the country’s population growth and expansion of middle
population class. This creates an opportunity among Western producers, especially in Latin
America, to expand their exporting activity there.

The supply chain crisis further threatened by the increasing impact of climate
Adoption of digital
change is raising concerns about future food security. To address the issue,
technologies
governments are increasingly investing in the promotion of technological
development, particularly through digitalisation, in order to increase productivity.

In light of global warming and increasingly adverse weather events as well as the
Investment in
outbreak of animal diseases, governments and agriculture producers are expected
sustainability
to continue investing in more sustainable farming practices, focusing on smart
water irrigation and regenerative agricultural practices.

© Euromonitor International
 INTRODUCTION 77

Key trends impacting the industry in 2022

The war in Ukraine disrupts Emerging markets lead

Cost of production is rising
international wheat trade agricultural production

▪ The war in Ukraine has led to a ▪ Due to international sanctions, Russia ▪ Asia Pacific leads in the global
dramatic decline in the domestic reduced its natural gas supply to production value of agriculture.
production of cereals and crops Europe which is an essential ▪ China is the largest agricultural
translating into significantly low component in the production of producer in the world, followed by
exports through the grain corridors fertilisers fuelling further the energy India. Both countries benefit from
established under the Black Sea Grain crisis. their massive and growing
Initiative. ▪ Adverse weather conditions (eg populations and large acreage of
• Russia’s cereals and crops exports are droughts, heavy rainfall) and agricultural land.
also under pressure due to the outbreaks of animal diseases (eg ▪ Foreign trade among Asian countries
financial, trade, shipping and avian flu) limit agricultural is expected to be strengthened by the
immigration restrictions following production. Governments respond by Regional Comprehensive Economic
international sanctions despite food controlling export quantities leading Partnership (RCEP) which will
and fertiliser exports being excluded. to tighter global supplies. minimise the trade barriers between
• As a result, cereals and crops are ▪ Labour shortages and ageing member states.
facing global shortages driving workforce prompt governments to ▪ The devaluation of Brazilian and
significant price increases. review their immigration policies. Argentinian currencies against the US
dollar has enabled both countries to
be more competitive in foreign trade.

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 Global overview

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 GLOBAL OVERVIEW 99

Agriculture is among the few industries that maintained growth during the pandemic
Global Production Value of Selected Industries Global Production Value Growth Year to Exceed Pre-Pandemic Level
USD billion 2021 % CAGR 2021-2026

Construction and Real Estate 26,051 2020

Retail and Wholesale 16,548 2021
Business Services 11,946 2021
Government and Membership Organizations 11,306 2020
Transport and Storage 10,323 2021
Finance and Insurance 10,085
2020
Information and Communications 8,776
2020
Healthcare and Social Services 8,220
2020
Food, Beverages and Tobacco 8,018
2021
Metal Products 7,622
2021
Hi-tech Goods 7,529
2020
Energy 6,136
2022
Agriculture 6,043
2020
Utilities and Recycling 6,002
2021
Transport Equipment 5,927
2021
Education 4,479
2021
Chemical Products 4,344
2021
Hotels and Restaurants 4,180
2023
Machinery 4,073 2021
Non-metalic Mineral Products 3,144 2021
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 0% 5% 10%
USD billion % CAGR 2021-2026
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 GLOBAL OVERVIEW 10
10

Agriculture records double-digit growth in terms of production value

GLOBAL SNAPSHOT Agriculture was among the few industries that managed to keep its overall global revenues
PRODUCTION VALUE resilient against the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020. Following a year of modest growth, the
easing of lockdown restrictions across the majority of the countries globally led the
6,043 13.5% production value of the industry to record double-digit growth in 2021.
USD bn, 2021 Growth, 2021
However, the easing of COVID-19-related restrictions has created supply bottlenecks,
PROFITABILITY
which in turn led to a strong rise in agricultural production costs and subsequently prices.
25%* 0.7P.P. The inflationary pressure has further supported the growth of the industry in value terms.
% of Production, 2021 Increase in 2021

COMPANY OPENINGS FULL RECOVERY IN Global Production Value Growth

USD million, y-o-y growth, % 2016-2026
3,707K 2020 16.0%
in 2021
14.0%
Production Value by Region 12.0%
% of total production, 2016-2026
100% 10.0%
Western Europe
North America 8.0%
Middle East & Africa
Latin America 6.0%
Eastern Europe 4.0%
Australasia 2.0%
Asia Pacific 0.0%
-2.0%
0%
2016 2021 2026
2016 2021 2026 Note: *Based on data from 18 largest economies globally
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 GLOBAL OVERVIEW 11
11

China and India continue to dominate global industry

Global production of agriculture is highly Production Value in Top 20 Countries Production Value Growth
USD million 2021 % CAGR
concentrated, with the top 20 countries
accounting for more than 78% of global CHINA 1,921,506
INDIA 655,340
production value in 2021.
USA 502,989
Almost 57% of global production value INDONESIA 212,061
comes from Asia Pacific, with China being BRAZIL 182,251
by far the largest agricultural producer in RUSSIA 120,573
FRANCE 113,048
the world, followed by India. Both
PAKISTAN 108,811
countries benefit from their massive and
AUSTRALIA 94,546
growing populations and large acreage of JAPAN 92,916
agricultural land while maintaining a strong BANGLADESH 85,122
growth potential for the future as their MEXICO 84,993
governments aim at modernising the GERMANY 78,397
industry and increasing productivity with EGYPT 78,383
the use of advanced technologies. VIETNAM 74,645
CANADA 73,060
Among the top three producers, the US SPAIN 71,444
has registered the slowest production ARGENTINA 68,052
value growth over 2016-2021, as ITALY 66,195
TURKEY 66,026
development is hampered by high labour
costs and expensive land when compared 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%
to emerging economies.
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 GLOBAL OVERVIEW 12
12

Profits recorded strong gains as COVID-19 restrictions were gradually lifted

Following a year of moderate Profits
USD million 2016-2021
increases in agricultural profitability INDIA USA INDONESIA BRAZIL
in 2020, in 2021 overall global
2020 2020 2020 2020
profits recorded strong growth
2018 2018 2018 2018
driven by the gradual recovery of
2016
demand after the easing of 2016 2016 2016
0 100,000200,000300,000 0 100,000 200,000 0 50,000 100,000150,000 0 50,000 100,000
lockdown restrictions across the MEXICO
CHINA RUSSIA FRANCE
world. Germany is the country that
2020 2020 2020 2020
recorded the strongest growth in
profitability, followed by Canada 2018 2018 2018 2018

where the government has made 2016 2016 2016 2016

0 20,00040,00060,00080,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000
significant investments in supporting
the agri-food sector by preventing TURKEY SPAIN GERMANY AUSTRALIA
the spread of COVID-19 and taking 2020 2020 2020 2020

immediate action on outbreaks on 2018 2018 2018 2018

farms. 2016 2016 2016 2016
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 0 20,000 40,000 0 10,00020,00030,00040,000
Nevertheless, the cost of production
JAPAN ITALY SOUTH KOREA WORLD
also skyrocketed due to the global
2020 2020 2020 2020
shortage of raw materials
2018 2018 2018 2018
challenging the future profitability
of farmers. 2016 2016 2016 2016
0 20,000 40,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 0 1,000,000
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 GLOBAL OVERVIEW 13
13

Global exports record strong growth offsetting the impact of the pandemic
Global export value for agricultural goods Global Exports Structure, 2021
recorded outstanding gains in 2021. This is
largely attributed to the depreciation of the
Brazilian real against the US dollar, leading
Brazil, the second largest exporter of
agricultural products, to strong inflation.
Similar issues were recorded in Argentina
with the peso collapsing against US dollar as
the country is challenged by further monetary
crisis. On the other hand, the devaluation of
their local currencies has enabled both
countries to be more competitive in terms of
foreign trade and register robust growth in
export value sales.
The US remained the largest exporter of
agricultural products in 2021. With more than
28% of its exports destined to China and the
trade war between the two countries ongoing
even after the US election, the US is focusing
on expanding its trade agreements with other
countries, including the EU.
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 GLOBAL OVERVIEW 14
14

China remains the largest importing country globally

Total imports of agriculture recorded strong Global Imports Structure, 2021
growth in 2021 offsetting the weak
performance of the previous year. China is the
world's largest importing country with most
of its imports being cereals, fruits and
vegetables.
China’s imports continue to grow, especially in
poultry as the rising income and living
standards of its population fuel the demand
for more meat consumption. Food safety
concerns further drive demand for imported
agricultural goods. Over the next few years,
China will play a significant role in importing
agricultural goods from Russia as the latter’s
exports are restricted due to Western
countries’ sanctions.
The US is the second largest importer,
particularly of fruits and vegetables coming
mainly from Canada and Latin America,
allowing year-round access to fresh produce
at cheaper prices.
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 GLOBAL OVERVIEW 15
15

Emerging markets drive global demand growth of agriculture

The global market for agricultural products Fastest Growing Agriculture Markets 2016-2021
continued to grow over 2016-2021, led by 16.0%
countries with the largest populations,
China, India and the US. China recorded Ukraine
14.0% Romania
the fastest growth in terms of absolute
value over the review period, driven by the
rising demand for meat, especially pork, as 12.0%

the growth of the middle class and Egypt

subsequent increased disposable income 10.0%
Bangladesh
has encouraged consumers to trade up to

CAGR 2016-2021
Poland
higher-quality sources of nutrients beyond 8.0% Canada
Spain
staple foods. Ethiopia
Mexico Indonesia China
India has also played an important role in 6.0% India
Thailand France Germany
the development of agriculture in terms of
Russia USA
absolute value growth as COVID-19 has 4.0% Australia Pakistan
brought to the fore the importance of Argentina
healthy eating to support immune health
2.0%
making consumers actively take steps to
improve their diets by increasing their
purchases of fruits and vegetable. 0.0%
10,000 100,000 1,000,000
Absolute Market Size Growth (USD million) 2016/2021
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 GLOBAL OVERVIEW 16
16

Global agriculture is challenged by rising costs and gloomy economic outlook

With the world emerging from COVID-19, the recovery in global demand and a decumulation of oil and gas
inventories have led to energy shortages and consequent price increases. The situation has further
Energy crisis disrupts deteriorated following the war in Ukraine as Russia reduced its energy supply to Europe in the wake of
the entire supply of international sanctions. With natural gas being a significant component in the production of fertilisers and
agricultural goods energy required across the entire agriculture industry, including irrigation, packaging and transportation, the
global energy crisis creates massive increases in the production costs of agricultural goods, threatening food
security.

Offsetting a massive increase recorded after the pandemic outbreak, the price of agricultural raw materials
Agricultural Raw
has plummeted since the second half of 2022 driven by low demand for cotton and timber. Low demand is
Materials Index
generated by the rising fears of a negative economic outlook as consumers deprioritise their apparel
declines due to low
purchases forcing apparel manufacturers to reduce their orders for cotton. Similarly, the higher mortgage
demand amid concerns
rates due to global inflation and weakened economic growth have slowed down the housing market leading
over economic outlook
to lower demand for timber.

According to OECD, Russia and Ukraine together export more than a quarter of the world's wheat. However,
the war in Ukraine has led to a dramatic decline in the production of cereals and crops translating into low
The war in Ukraine
exports through the grain corridors established under the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Although the EU and the
leads to global
US have excluded food and fertiliser from the sanctions against Russia, Russia’s exports are also under
shortages in wheat
pressure due to the financial, trade, shipping and immigration restrictions. As a result, limited exports from
Ukraine and Russia have led to global wheat supply shortages and strong price increases.
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 GLOBAL OVERVIEW 17
17

Increases in commodity prices lead to skyrocketing cost of production in agriculture

Wheat price, USD per tonne,
Energy Prices Index 2016-2023 Agricultural Raw Materials Index
2016-2023
2016-2023
Energy prices are forecast to Low demand amid economic
War in Ukraine is fuelling wheat
peak in 2022 worries decreases cotton prices
shortages
180 100 600

160 90
500
140 80
70
120 400
60
2010=100

2010=100
100
50 300
80
40
60 200
30
40 20 100
20 10
0 0 0

Jun 2018

Jul 2022
Apr 2017
Nov 2017

May 2021
Aug 2019

Dec 2021
Feb 2016
Sep 2016

Jan 2019

Mar 2020

Feb 2023
Sep 2023
Oct 2020
Jun 2019
Jun 2017

Jun 2021

Jun 2023

Jun 2017

Jun 2019

Jun 2021

Jun 2023
Feb 2022
Feb 2016

Feb 2018

Feb 2020

Feb 2016

Feb 2018

Feb 2020

Feb 2022
Oct 2016

Oct 2018

Oct 2020

Oct 2022

Oct 2016

Oct 2018

Oct 2020

Oct 2022
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 Leading companies

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 LEADING COMPANIES 19
19

Agriculture remains a stable and highly fragmented market

Over the period 2016-2021, the competitive Top 10 Companies by Production Value
% of global production value, 2016-2021
landscape in agriculture has remained stable
2016 Rank 2021 Rank
and highly fragmented, with the top 10 1. 0.6% Bunge Ltd
largest companies accounting for less than
2.5% of global production value. Among the 2. 0.4% CHS Inc
top players, US-based companies were the
most prevalent ones including the leading 3. 0.3% Olam
International Ltd
Bunge Ltd, a US agribusiness company
specialising in soybean exports, CHS, Cargill, 4. 0.3% Cargill Inc
Dole Food and Land O’ Lakes. In order to
increase its presence in the Brazilian cereals 5. 0.2% BayWa AG
and crops market, in January 2022, Bunge
announced the acquisition of a 33% stake in 6. 0.2% China Agri-
Industries Holdings Ltd
Sinagro, a Brazil-based associate of India’s
agrochemical company UPL Ltd. 7. 0.2% Dole Food Co Inc

The largest companies are forecast to

experience robust revenue growth over the 8. 0.2% Land O' Lakes Inc

short-term outlook mostly driven by the 9. 0.1% Teys Australia

strong commodity price increases in 2022. Meat Group Pty Ltd

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 LEADING COMPANIES 20
20

Total number of companies in developed countries declines as small players exit the market
Total Number of Companies
Units 2016-2021
INDIA INDONESIA BRAZIL CHINA MEXICO
40,000,000 34,000,000 11,000,000 8,000,000 8,000,000
32,000,000 7,500,000 6,000,000
35,000,000 10,000,000
30,000,000 7,000,000 4,000,000
30,000,000 9,000,000
28,000,000 6,500,000 2,000,000
25,000,000 26,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 0
JAPAN TURKEY ITALY SPAIN FRANCE
4,000,000 2,400,000 1,800,000 1,500,000 1,200,000
3,000,000 1,150,000
2,200,000 1,750,000 1,000,000
1,100,000
2,000,000
1,050,000
2,000,000 1,700,000 500,000
1,000,000 1,000,000
0 1,800,000 1,650,000 0 950,000
SOUTH KOREA USA CANADA AUSTRALIA SAUDI ARABIA
1,000,000 1,000,000 360,000 187,000 120,000
950,000 340,000 186,000 115,000
185,000
500,000 900,000 320,000 110,000
184,000
850,000 300,000 183,000 105,000
0 800,000 280,000 182,000 100,000

Across most developed markets, the total number of companies declined or remained stable over the last three years due to shrinking
numbers of small and micro-sized enterprises affected by the impact of COVID-19 and the rising operating costs. In contrast, the number of
companies in most emerging markets has remained resilient as the rise of the middle class continues attracting foreign players.
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 LEADING COMPANIES 21
21

Industry concentration to increase amid rising costs

With small to medium-sized farms dominating the agriculture Top Five Companies Production Value Share 2016-2021
% of total production value
industry, concentration continued to remain very low in all
major producing countries over the 2016-2021 period. The 100% CHINA INDIA USA INDONESIA

Hundreds
US had the largest concentration in agriculture, nevertheless
the top five companies still accounted for less than 15% of 50%

production value in 2021.

0%
On the other hand, the global disruption in food supply due
100% BRAZIL RUSSIA FRANCE AUSTRALIA
to the rising costs and the impact of climate change is

Hundreds
bringing food security to the fore. This highlights the 50%
challenges that such a fragmented industry can face in
achieving supply chain transparency and investing in farm 0%
productivity in order to scale up production, improve quality
levels and meet the rising demand of the growing global 100% JAPAN MEXICO GERMANY CANADA

Hundreds
population. The above factors reflect that commercial
50%
farming is increasingly becoming capital intensive requiring
huge capital investment and large acreage that small-scale 0%
producers struggle to achieve.
100% SPAIN ITALY TURKEY WORLD
As a result, concentration in the global agriculture industry is Hundreds

likely to increase over the long term as small businesses 50%

struggle with liquidity problems.
0%
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 Global outlook

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 GLOBAL OUTLOOK 23
23

Emerging markets are set to drive future production value growth

Over the period 2021-2026, the global Agricultural Production in Top 20 Countries 2021-2026
agriculture industry is forecast to continue CAGR
growing at a robust rate with growth expected to
20.0%
be driven by developing countries. Latin America Argentina
and Asia Pacific are expected to remain the key 18.0%
growth engines for the industry, mainly due to
their fast-growing populations, large acreage and 16.0%
rising middle classes. These factors translate not 14.0%
only into more workforce in the agriculture
sector which in turn drives crop productivity but 12.0%
also into growing demand for agricultural foods Brazil
10.0% Vietnam
as higher incomes boost demand for animal
proteins or higher quality crops. 8.0%
Indonesia India
Bangladesh
Argentina and Brazil are projected to record the 6.0%
steepest growth rates among the top producers Canada
Australia
Mexico
over 2021-2026, driven by strong food price 4.0% Spain France USA
inflation as well as their heavy production in Egypt
Russia China
2.0% Germany
cereals and crops. In absolute value terms, India
Pakistan
is set to register the largest growth as the Indian 0.0%
Italy Japan
government invests in expanding production 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
capacity with the use of technological means.
Absolute Production Value Growth (USD million) 2021/2026
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 GLOBAL OUTLOOK 24
24

Eastern Europe and Asia forecast to swiftly recover from COVID-19 shock
Production Value Dynamics Index 2016-2026
2019=100
200 200 200 200 200
CHINA INDIA USA INDONESIA BRAZIL
150 150 150 150 150
100 2020 100 2021 100 2020
100 2020 100 2021
50 50 50 50 50
0 0 0 0 0
2016 2019 2026 2016 2019 2026 2016 2019 2026 2016 2019 2026 2016 2019 2026
200 200 200 200 200
RUSSIA FRANCE PAKISTAN AUSTRALIA JAPAN
150 150 150 150 150
100 2021 100 2020 100 100 2020 100 2020
2020
50 50 50 50 50
0 0 0 0 0
2016 2019 2026 2016 2019 2026 2016 2019 2026 2016 2019 2026 2016 2019 2026
200 200 200 200 200
BANGLADESH MEXICO GERMANY EGYPT VIETNAM
150 150 150 150 150
100 2020 100 2021 100 2021 100 2020 100 2020
50 50 50 50 50
0 0 0 0 0
2016 2019 2026 2016 2019 2026 2016 2019 2026 2016 2019 2026 2016 2019 2026
200 200 200 200 200
CANADA SPAIN ARGENTINA ITALY TURKEY
150 150 150 150 150
100 100 2020 100 100 100
2020 2021 2021
50 50 50 50 50
0 0 0 0 0
2016 2019 2026 2016 2019 2026 2016 2019 2026 2016 2019 2026 2016 2019 2026
Note: Line marks the year when the industry is forecast to reach pre-COVID-19 production value
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 GLOBAL OUTLOOK 25
25

Key future trends shaping the global industry

Inflationary pressure from supply chain disruption Feeding the growing population in emerging markets
The global supply chain crisis is currently a major challenge for The growing food and animal feed demand in emerging markets
agriculture with farmers’ profits expected to continue facing strong highlights an opportunity among Western producers to increase
pressure from rising production costs. The easing of COVID-19 their foreign trade with them. Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and
restrictions created a supply bottleneck in raw materials and China, where the majority of global population growth is
transportation facilities alongside labour shortages. The recovery in concentrated, are currently the largest net importers of food, and
global demand for oil and gas also led to energy price increases. The trade will remain critical to assist meeting the growing demand for
war in Ukraine escalated the situation with energy and commodity agricultural food products. Latin America can play a crucial role on
prices further rising especially for Europe, which is highly dependent meeting this need thanks to its competitive position in international
on Russian exports. trade driven by its cheap production.

Adoption of digital technologies Investment in sustainable production

The supply chain crisis further threatened by the increasing impact In light of global warming and increasingly adverse weather events
of climate change is raising concerns about future food security. To as well as the outbreak of animal diseases, governments and
address the issue, governments are increasingly investing in the agriculture producers are expected to continue investing in more
promotion of technological development, particularly through sustainable farming practices, focusing on smart water irrigation
digitalisation, in order to increase productivity. Over the forecast and regenerative agricultural practices. In developed markets, for
period, agriculture is expected to be massively supported by example, organic produce is becoming increasingly important, with
advanced machinery, Internet of Things (IoT) technology, such as the EU’s “farm to fork” strategy launched in May 2020, aiming at
sensors and drones, big data and artificial intelligence, to help reaching 25% of EU’s agricultural land to be under organic farming
farmers scale up production and improve their income generation. by 2030, up from 8.5% in 2019.
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 Country snapshots

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 COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS 27
27

China: Industry remains resilient but risks for supply shortages increase
COUN T RY SN AP SHOT Agriculture Production Value in China 2016-2026

Turnover (USD million)

2,500,000 20.0%
2,000,000 15.0%

Y-o-y growth
10.0%
1,500,000
5.0%
1,000,000
0.0%
500,000 -5.0%
0 -10.0%
2016 2021 2026
PRODUCTION VALUE
1,921,506 2.7% Agriculture Industry in Asia Pacific Context 2021-2026 Agriculture Exports 2016-2021
USD million
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2021-2026 12.0%
2021 23,030
MARKET SIZE 10.0% Vietnam 2020
Bangladesh
2,027,446 6.4% % CAGR 2021-2026
8.0%
India
Indonesia
2019
2018
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2016-2021 2017
6.0% 2016 16,936
EXPORT VALUE Philippines
4.0% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
23,030 6.3% Pakistan
Thailand China
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2016-2021 2.0%
Japan Exports Share 2016/2021
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES South Korea 2021
0.0%
Large arable land Unstable animal meat 500 0 1,000 1,500 2,000 2016
Ample labour force supply due to diseases Production Value per Capita (USD) 2021
Expanding meat demand Strict COVID-19 policies 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Note: Size of bubble represents industry’s production value in 2021, USD million Export Domestic Sales
© Euromonitor International
 COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS 28
28

Adverse weather conditions, animal diseases and Zero-COVID policy disrupt production
Although China‘s agriculture sector recorded significant progress in 2021, the country’s fruit, vegetable, cereal
and crop production is challenged by adverse weather conditions. In 2021, major vegetable-producing areas
Production remains experienced high rainfall and floods during the summer, especially in northern China, while in 2022 cold
strong but adverse spring weather in combination with a summer drought has affected the production of multiple fruits and
weather is a challenge grains. To address the issue, the country’s National Development and Reform Commission has set a minimum
of grain acreage aiming at ensuring enough land is used for cereals and crops. It also ensured that China will
also increase the subsidies for agricultural insurance premiums by 31% in 2022.
China is the world’s largest pork producer, a market that since 2018 has faced strong pressure from African
swine fever (ASF). In April 2021, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs divided the country into five
African swine fever and
regions and allowed pig movement only within the region and ASF-free zones. Although outbreaks continued
avian flu remain an
during 2021, the country has managed to rebuild its swine herd squeezing out poultry. The latter’s production
issue for pig and
and demand remains under threat with the avian flu leading to a number of human deaths. Hong Kong’s
poultry supply
Centre for Health Protection has warned travellers to mainland China to avoid visiting wet poultry markets or
farms, highlighting the vulnerability of the country’s meat production against animal diseases.

China’s adherence to its Zero-COVID policy has exacerbated serious shortages of fertiliser, labour and seeds,
threatening agricultural production and consequently the country’s food supply stability. Three of the five
Zero-COVID policy
largest ports worldwide, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Ningbo, are located in China and faced lockdown
threatens stability of
restrictions in 2021 dramatically affecting the country’s exports. In the long term, this puts the efforts of the
agricultural production
country to achieve self-sufficiency in staple goods under risk, likely to lead to an increased dependence on
imports and disrupting further global food price inflation.
© Euromonitor International
 COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS 29
29

India: Demand is driven by population growth

COUN T RY SN AP SHOT Agriculture Production Value in India 2016-2026

Turnover (USD million)

1,000,000 15.0%
800,000 10.0%

Y-o-y growth
600,000 5.0%
400,000 0.0%
200,000 -5.0%
0 -10.0%
2016 2021 2026
PRODUCTION VALUE
655,340 7.4% Agriculture Industry in Asia Pacific Context 2021-2026 Agriculture Exports 2016-2021
USD million
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2021-2026 12.0%
2021 12,775
MARKET SIZE 10.0% Vietnam 2020
Bangladesh
811,554 6.1% % CAGR 2021-2026
8.0%
India
Indonesia
2019
2018
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2016-2021 2017
6.0% 2016 8,635
EXPORT VALUE Philippines
4.0% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000
12,775 8.1% Pakistan Thailand China
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2016-2021 2.0%
Japan Exports Share 2016/2021
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES South Korea 2021
0.0%
Large arable land Low productivity 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2016
Growing population Lower innovation level Production Value per Capita (USD) 2021
Lower operating costs Exports control 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Note: Size of bubble represents industry’s production value in 2021, USD million Export Domestic Sales
© Euromonitor International
 COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS 30
30

Indian government takes action to support stability, food security and new technologies
Agriculture in India recorded steady growth in 2021 with the sector (agriculture, hunting and forestry)
accounting for more than 16% of the country’s Gross Value Added (GVA). In November 2021, following a year
Indian government of protests from farmers, the Indian government announced the repeal of three laws it introduced in
repeals three laws on September 2020 that were aimed at deregulating the sector and allowing farmers to sell their produce for any
price deregulation price to anyone. The new regulation was not welcomed and sparked protests across the country with farmers
claiming that this could enable large private corporations to take control over the pricing of the market
squeezing the negotiating power of small farmers.
With the global wheat market facing significant shortages due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in May 2022,
the Indian government introduced a ban on wheat exports with immediate effect followed, in September
India restricts exports
2022, by a second ban on broken rice exports and the introduction of a 20% tax on export sales of other rice
of cereals and crops to
varieties. Although these restrictions prevent Indian farmers from benefiting from the rising prices amid the
secure domestic food
global shortages, they also ensure adequate local supplies and domestic food security. This comes to support
supply
the country after a year of reduced wheat and rice production given a strong heatwave and below-average
monsoon rainfall.

Aiming to support the production of smaller farmers, the Indian government is working on digitalising the
The government industry, undertaking several initiatives. Among them, it is planning to launch Kisan Drones in order to
promotes the promote crop assessment, digitise land records, and spray agri-nutrients such as fertilisers and pesticides. In
digitalisation of September 2021, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare launched the Digital Agriculture Mission
agriculture 2021-2025 which aims to support and develop projects that rely on cutting-edge technologies, including AI,
blockchain, remote sensing and robots.
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31

USA: Industry benefits from high labour productivity

COUN T RY SN AP SHOT Agriculture Production Value in the US 2016-2026

Turnover (USD million)

700,000 20.0%
600,000 15.0%

Y-o-y growth
500,000 10.0%
400,000
5.0%
300,000
200,000 0.0%
100,000 -5.0%
0 -10.0%
2016 2021 2026
PRODUCTION VALUE
502,989 3.4% Agriculture Industry in North America Context 2021-2026 Agriculture Exports 2016-2021
USD million
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2021-2026 6.0%
2021 83,555
MARKET SIZE 5.0% 2020
Canada
618,353 4.7% % CAGR 2021-2026
4.0%
2019
2018
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2016-2021 USA 2017
3.0% 2016 70,452
EXPORT VALUE
2.0% 0 40,000 80,000
83,555 3.5%
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2016-2021 1.0% Exports Share 2016/2021
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES 2021
0.0%
Large exports Expensive land 500 0 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2016
Higher crop productivity High labour costs Production Value per Capita (USD) 2021
Strong government support Risk of overcapacity 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Note: Size of bubble represents industry’s production value in 2021, USD million Export Domestic Sales
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32

Food supply is challenged by adverse weather conditions and the spread of avian flu

In June 2022, the US president presented the Los Angeles Declaration on Migration and Protection at the
Los Angeles Declaration
Summit of the Americas aiming to address the challenges faced by the workforce in agriculture. As the
on Migration and
pandemic highlighted the significant role migrant workers play in food security, the programme aims at
Protection presented at
stabilising the labour market in agriculture by addressing shortages, expanding the legal pathways to reduce
the Summit of the
irregular migration and improving the working conditions of farm workers by establishing a more humane
Americas
migration management system.

In October 2022, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced a reduction in the estimated
winter harvest of wheat in the country due to the drought in the centre and northwest of the country in 2022.
Drought leads to
This has boosted the fears for additional price increases and is delaying further the recovery of cereals and
reduced cereals and
crops supply which was dramatically disrupted after the war in Ukraine. Production of corn and cotton are
crop production
also projected to remain at lower levels following the dry weather deteriorating the already tight global
supplies.

In February 2022, USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) confirmed the first case of highly
pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in a turkey flock in Indiana. Since then, the country has been challenged by
Avian influenza leads to
a record number of birds affected as more than 49 million birds in 46 US states have either died after being
tighter supply of
infected by the avian flu virus or have been culled due to exposure to infected birds increasing the concerns
poultry
for potential trade restrictions. This has significantly affected the production of poultry which in combination
with strong consumer demand for animal protein is leading to significant price increases.
© Euromonitor International
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33

Indonesia: Exports of cereals and crops recorded massive gains in 2021

COUN T RY SN AP SHOT Agriculture Production Value in Indonesia 2016-2026

Turnover (USD million)

350,000 12.0%
300,000 10.0%

Y-o-y growth
250,000 8.0%
200,000 6.0%
150,000 4.0%
100,000 2.0%
50,000 0.0%
0 -2.0%
2016 2021 2026
PRODUCTION VALUE
212,061 7.6% Agriculture Industry in Asia Pacific Context 2021-2026 Agriculture Exports 2016-2021
USD million
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2021-2026 12.0%
2021 4,161
MARKET SIZE 10.0% Vietnam 2020
Bangladesh
301,548 6.3% % CAGR 2021-2026
8.0%
India
Indonesia
2019
2018
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2016-2021 2017
6.0%
2016 2,714
EXPORT VALUE Philippines
4.0% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
4,161 8.9% Pakistan Thailand China
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2016-2021 2.0% Exports Share 2016/2021
Japan
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES South Korea 2021
0.0%
Diverse agro-climate Poor infrastructure 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2016
Lower operating costs Lack of incentives Production Value per Capita (USD) 2021
Large workforce pool Low innovation level 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Note: Size of bubble represents industry’s production value in 2021, USD million Export Domestic Sales
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 COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS 34
34

Indonesia’s livestock production is challenged by FMD outbreak

In 2022, the weak domestic demand in the Indonesian feed manufacturing industry has created a corn surplus
that led to strong decline in corn prices. To prevent further losses, the Indonesian government faced
Exports of corn increasing pressure from corn farmers to support them on maintaining price levels. As a result, the Ministry
increase due to low approved corn exports of up to 100,000 mt after ensuring adequate reserves in the domestic market. The
domestic demand country aims at increasing its corn production with the use of hybrid seeds. Its agriculture exports are also
expected to be supported by its participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP),
signed in 2022, which will minimise the trade barriers with other members in Southeast Asia and Australasia.

In April 2022, Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), a highly contagious viral disease of livestock, was detected and
spread rapidly in Indonesia forcing Australia and New Zealand to enhance their border biosecurity restrictions.
Foot and Mouth
Despite the impacted domestic production, the threat of the disease is only expected to negatively affect
Disease (FMD) spreads
Indonesian exports in the short term. Following a formal request for assistance from the Indonesian
in the country
government, Australia has provided financial support for Indonesia's vaccination programme destined for
small-sized farms.

Low productivity is one of the key issues for Indonesian agriculture as farmers have limited access to
Indonesia invests in
information and technological means. To address this, in 2021, the Indonesia Ministry of State-Owned
sustainable agriculture
Enterprises introduced the Makmur programme in order to support farmers to develop their income and
through Makmur
scale up their production providing them with technical assistance, including fertiliser recommendations and
programme
soil analysis a well as access to capital and training.

© Euromonitor International
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35

Brazil: Currency devaluation led to massive gains in exports

COUN T RY SN AP SHOT Agriculture Production Value in Brazil 2016-2026

Turnover (USD million)

350,000 25.0%
300,000 20.0%

Y-o-y growth
250,000 15.0%
200,000 10.0%
150,000 5.0%
100,000 0.0%
50,000 -5.0%
0 -10.0%
2016 2021 2026
PRODUCTION VALUE
182,251 10.2% Agriculture Industry in Latin America Context 2021-2026 Agriculture Exports 2016-2021
USD million
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2021-2026
20.0% 2021 74,383
MARKET SIZE 2020

144,431 0.1% % CAGR 2021-2026

15.0%
Cuba
Argentina
2019
2018
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2016-2021 Dominican 2017
10.0% Republic Brazil 2016 30,927
EXPORT VALUE
Colombia 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000
74,383 19.2% 5.0% Chile
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2016-2021 Exports Share 2016/2021
Peru Costa Rica
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
0.0% Mexico Ecuador 2021
Developed exports Economic instability 300
700 500
900 1,100 1,300 1,500 2016
Growing soybean production Low innovation level Production Value per Capita (USD) 2021
Large cattle farming Climate change impact 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Note: Size of bubble represents industry’s production value in 2021, USD million Export Domestic Sales
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 COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS 36
36

Brazil commits to zero deforestation in the Amazon unlocking trade negotiations with EU

In 2021, agricultural production increased with the country recording significant gains in exports following the
easing of international trade restrictions. However, domestic production has been challenged by heavy
Extreme weather
drought and frost in 2021. The drought has led to increased fire in the Amazon forest and low water levels
conditions affect
that disrupted shipping, while the frost has destroyed cereal harvests. With Brazil being one of the largest
agricultural production
exporters of cereals and crops in the world, these factors have contributed to the global price increases of
these goods.

In 2021, the detection of mad cow disease (BSE) in the country led to a suspension of cattle exports. While
China, the largest market for Brazilian exports, has quickly lifted its restrictions, UK and EU retailers have
Lack of transparency
announced their decision to cease beef imports from Brazil because of the Amazon and Pantanal
limits market potential
deforestation. With Brazilian meat processors admitting that there is not enough transparency in cattle
in EU
production, the country’s cattle exports to Western Europe remain under threat. Nevertheless, Brazil has an
established partnership with China, where demand for meat is growing rapidly amid population growth.

To reverse the negative outlook and putting climate change under the spotlight, during the COP27 climate
summit in November 2022, Brazil’s president committed to zero deforestation in the Amazon by 2030, a
Brazil’s president
crucial issue that has been accelerated by unsustainable farming practices over the last years. The
commits to zero
government also aims at tackling inequality and promoting renewable energy across the country. This
deforestation in the
commitment can unlock trade deal negotiations between the country and Western Europe, boosting its
Amazon
agriculture exports. In the long term, it can significantly lead to the reduction of CO2 emissions, preventing
the catastrophic consequences of climate change on agricultural production and consequently food supply.
© Euromonitor International
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37

Russia: War in Ukraine leads the country to economic recession

COUN T RY SN AP SHOT Agriculture Production Value in Russia 2016-2026

Turnover (USD million)

150,000 20.0%
15.0%

Y-o-y growth
100,000 10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
50,000 -5.0%
-10.0%
0 -15.0%
2016 2021 2026
PRODUCTION VALUE
120,573 2.4% Agriculture Industry in Eastern Europe Context 2021-2026 Agriculture Exports 2016-2021
USD million
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2021-2026 9.0%
2021 13,108
7.0% 2020
MARKET SIZE Romania
Slovakia Lithuania
131,358 4.7% % CAGR 2021-2026 5.0% Russia Czech Republic
2019
2018
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2016-2021 3.0% Poland 2017
2016 6,728
EXPORT VALUE 1.0%
Belarus 0 5,000 10,000 15,000
13,108 14.3% -1.0% Bulgaria
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2016-2021 -3.0% Hungary Ukraine Exports Share 2016/2021
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES 2021
-5.0%
Strong wheat production Political instability 500
1,000 1,500 2,000 2016
Export network in Asia Economic recession Production Value per Capita (USD) 2021
Lower operating costs Lower productivity 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Note: Size of bubble represents industry’s production value in 2021, USD million Export Domestic Sales
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 COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS 38
38

Production value remains resilient despite war in Ukraine

In 2021, Russia sustained its agricultural production value, which is expected to further increase in 2022.
Despite the international sanctions and the immediate currency devaluation, the Russian ruble has managed
Russia’s exports are to fully recover and exceed its highest level since 2015 following Russian central bank monetary policy
challenged by adjustments. However, over the forecast period, the country’s agricultural exports are expected to be
international sanctions challenged both by the increasing strength of the local currency and the international sanctions. Although
international sanctions do not restrict food and fertiliser exports, the financial, trade, shipping and
immigration restrictions are affecting Russia’s foreign trade in agricultural goods.

Among the challenges that the industry is facing, the risk of future labour shortages is increasing as the war in
Ukraine is ongoing. In September 2022, Russia declared a partial mobilisation requiring 300,000 reservists to
War in Ukraine leads to
participate in the war in Ukraine, with farmers also being among the Russians drafted into the army. This
labour shortages
creates additional risks for agricultural production of 2023 increasing the concerns of further global shortages
and price increases.

As local producers are struggling with logistics, the availability of ingredients and packaging, in April 2022, the
Moscow region started the “Land for RUB1.00” programme, a support measure for local businesses aimed at
Russian government the implementation of import substitution. Participants can rent one of 250 land plots for RUB1.00 for three
invests in import years, and will be able to buy land that they rent for 15% of the cadastral value at the end of the preferential
substitution lease period. At the beginning of May, the Russian government approved a new measure to support the dairy
industry: manufacturers are now allowed to use 0.5-litre packaging instead of the usual 0.25-litre maximum
for baby food, including infant formula, drinking and sour milk.
© Euromonitor International
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39

France: Production recovers as COVID-19 restrictions are eased

COUN T RY SN AP SHOT Agriculture Production Value in France 2016-2026

Turnover (USD million)

140,000 15.0%
120,000
10.0%

Y-o-y growth
100,000
80,000 5.0%
60,000 0.0%
40,000
-5.0%
20,000
0 -10.0%
2016 2021 2026
PRODUCTION VALUE
113,048 2.5% Agriculture Industry in Western Europe Context 2021-2026 Agriculture Exports 2016-2021
USD million
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2021-2026 4.0% United Kingdom Spain France 2021 17,968
MARKET SIZE 3.0% Netherlands 2020

128,065 4.8% % CAGR 2021-2026

2.0%
2019
2018
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2016-2021 Germany Ireland 2017
1.0% Greece Denmark
2016 14,223
EXPORT VALUE
0.0% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
17,968 4.8% Italy
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2016-2021 -1.0% Exports Share 2016/2021
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES Turkey 2021
-2.0%
Good international Ageing workforce
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2016
reputation Lower meat consumption
Production Value per Capita (USD) 2021
Industry digitalisation Strict environmental 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Strong exports policies Note: Size of bubble represents industry’s production value in 2021, USD million Export Domestic Sales
© Euromonitor International
 COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS 40
40

French agriculture challenged by climate change and labour shortages

Unfavourable weather conditions affected French agricultural production with a frost in April 2021 destroying
Cereals and crops hundreds of thousands of hectares of crops of fruits, vegetables and cereals across the country. To support
production affected by the farmers, the French government pledged more than EUR1 billion in aid. Similar issues arose in 2022, when
extreme weather the country recorded high temperatures in May affecting the growing conditions for cereals and crops. With
France being the biggest EU grain producer, wheat prices continue to increase as a result, creating further
concerns on tight global supplies.

France is Europe's largest market in terms of agricultural production, but its outlook is threatened by an
France is likely to
ageing workforce and labour shortages. To address the limited workforce and tackle exploitation of migrant
introduce a specific
workers, in 2022, the French government expressed its goal to introduce a specific residence permit that will
residence permit to
allow illegal immigrants that work, among other sectors, in agriculture to legalise their status without the
address labour
intervention of the employer. This is set to help currently undocumented workers to be protected by French
shortages
labour law. The new immigration plan is scheduled to be debated in the French parliament in early 2023.

With the production of meat and dairy accounting for almost 14.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions
according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the EU's climate target to reduce net
EU’s climate target emissions by at least 55% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels, over the outlook period, livestock farming in
hamper the growth of France is expected to see subdued growth. The country is putting particular effort into reducing meat
animal farming consumption and strengthening environmental restrictions, for example by banning the practice of culling
male chicks from 2022, reducing the use of nitrogen-based fertilisers and encouraging the inclusion of more
vegetarian menus in school canteens.
© Euromonitor International
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41

Pakistan: Industry recorded strong gains in 2021 exports

COUN T RY SN AP SHOT Agriculture Production Value in Pakistan 2016-2026

Turnover (USD million)

140,000 25.0%
120,000 20.0%
15.0%

Y-o-y growth
100,000
80,000 10.0%
5.0%
60,000 0.0%
40,000 -5.0%
20,000 -10.0%
0 -15.0%
2016 2021 2026
PRODUCTION VALUE
108,811 2.2% Agriculture Industry in Asia Pacific Context 2021-2026 Agriculture Exports 2016-2021
USD million
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2021-2026 12.0%
2021 1,016
MARKET SIZE 10.0% Vietnam 2020
Bangladesh
180,421 4.1% % CAGR 2021-2026
8.0%
India
Indonesia
2019
2018
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2016-2021 2017
6.0%
2016 817
EXPORT VALUE Philippines
4.0% 0 500 1,000 1,500
1,016 4.5% Pakistan Thailand China
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2016-2021 2.0% Exports Share 2016/2021
Japan
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES South Korea 2021
0.0%
Large domestic market Economic recession 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2016
Lower operating costs Lower productivity Production Value per Capita (USD) 2021
Strong exporting activity Weak infrastructure 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Note: Size of bubble represents industry’s production value in 2021, USD million Export Domestic Sales
© Euromonitor International
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42

Pakistan’s goal of agricultural transformation hampered by economic instability

To modernise the agricultural sector, Pakistan has been focusing on enhancing its cooperation with China
under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a framework for increasing connectivity between the two
countries officially launched in 2015, which aims at economic regionalisation. Closer cooperation with China
Pakistan seeks closer
can help Pakistan improve its labour productivity by increasing its knowledge on agricultural science and
cooperation with China
technology. In light of the global supply shortage of wheat, the two countries are exploring the opportunity of
sorghum cultivation, with China providing its technical training services to boost Pakistan’s sorghum
production and exports.

In July 2022, the World Bank announced its approval of USD200 million financial support, revised down from
The World Bank is USD300 million, for the transformation of the country’s agricultural sector through the adoption of new
funding the country’s technologies in Punjab, a province of Pakistan that accounts for 73% of the country’s total food production.
agricultural Punjab plays a crucial role in the country’s economy and food security and the adoption of climate-smart
transformation technologies is expected to scale up production, improve water management and make production more
resilient against extreme weather conditions increasing incomes of small farmers.

Agriculture was hit hard by flooding in Pakistan in July and August 2022, with more than eight million acres of
crops being destroyed. The country, which is one of the largest rice and cotton exporters, is now facing major
Catastrophic floods
economic losses and food security concerns putting further pressure on the already tight global supplies of
have depleted food
cereals and crops. With the industry contributing massively to the country’s GDP, the federal government of
supply
Pakistan has been calling for help from the international community and received additional support from the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) as part of the bailout programme it entered in 2019.
© Euromonitor International
 COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS 43
43

Australia: Foreign trade strengthens as the country opened its international borders
COUN T RY SN AP SHOT Agriculture Production Value in Australia 2016-2026

Turnover (USD million)

140,000 20.0%
120,000 15.0%

Y-o-y growth
100,000 10.0%
80,000
5.0%
60,000
40,000 0.0%
20,000 -5.0%
0 -10.0%
2016 2021 2026
PRODUCTION VALUE
94,546 5.5% Agriculture Industry in Australasia Context 2021-2026 Agriculture Exports 2016-2021
USD million
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2021-2026 7.0%
2021 12,808
6.0% 2020
MARKET SIZE
Australia
107,508 4.9% % CAGR 2021-2026 5.0% 2019
2018
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2016-2021 4.0% 2017
2016 13,355
EXPORT VALUE 3.0%
0 5,000 10,000 15,000
12,808 -0.8% 2.0%
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2016-2021 1.0%
New Zealand Exports Share 2016/2021
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES 2021
0.0%
Government support Ageing farmers 0
2,000 1,000
3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2016
Large domestic market High labour costs Production Value per Capita (USD) 2021
Strong exports Labour shortages 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Note: Size of bubble represents industry’s production value in 2021, USD million Export Domestic Sales
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44

Australia commits to 2030 sustainability targets

One of the key challenges for the outlook of the Australian agriculture market comes from chronic labour
shortages which have been further deteriorated by the border closures as part of the government’s actions
Australia introduces
against COVID-19. To tackle the limited workforce, in October 2021, the government introduced a new
new agriculture visa
agriculture visa available for workers from Indonesia and ASEAN countries. To prevent potential exploitation,
the government ensured equal rights and protection for migrant workers.

The Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak in Indonesian cattle, swine and pig is ongoing and traces of the
Australia releases virus were identified in Australia in imported pork and beef in July 2022. Nevertheless, as the live virus has
national biosecurity not been detected, the country remains free of the disease as of November 2022. To prevent exposure to
plan amid fears on Foot diseases that could have a heavy impact on domestic agriculture, Australia has released its first national
and Mouth disease biosecurity plan which among others includes enhanced surveillance. This adds to the governmental support
outbreak to protect local production and to improve future food security which is under threat due to climate change,
COVID-19 and online shopping that has increased illegal plant and animal imports.

Following the increasing pressure that Australia has faced to commit to a net zero 2050 target in line with the
Australia joins Global Paris agreement, in October 2022 the government confirmed its target to reduce methane emissions by 30%
Methane Pledge by 2030, given the increasing impact of climate change. The pledge has also been approved by the National
Farmers Federation after the government assured that the target will be achieved not by additional taxes on
livestock methane but by supporting businesses in adopting smarter practices and technologies.

© Euromonitor International
 COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS 45
45

Japan: Exports recover and exceed pre-pandemic levels

COUN T RY SN AP SHOT Agriculture Production Value in Japan 2016-2026

Turnover (USD million)

120,000 20.0%
100,000 15.0%
10.0%

Y-o-y growth
80,000 5.0%
60,000 0.0%
40,000 -5.0%
-10.0%
20,000 -15.0%
0 -20.0%
2016 2021 2026
PRODUCTION VALUE
92,916 1.2% Agriculture Industry in Asia Pacific Context 2021-2026 Agriculture Exports 2016-2021
USD million
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2021-2026 12.0%
2021 643
MARKET SIZE 10.0% Vietnam 2020
Bangladesh
145,132 -0.6% % CAGR 2021-2026
8.0%
India
Indonesia
2019
2018
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2016-2021 2017
6.0%
2016 591
EXPORT VALUE Philippines
4.0% 560 580 600 620 640 660
643 1.7% Pakistan Thailand China
USD mn, 2021 CAGR 2016-2021 2.0% Exports Share 2016/2021
Japan
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES South Korea 2021
0.0%
Government support Ageing farmers 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2016
Large domestic market High labour costs Production Value per Capita (USD) 2021
High innovation Expensive land 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Note: Size of bubble represents industry’s production value in 2021, USD million Export Domestic Sales
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 COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS 46
46

Threatened by food security, Japan focuses on self-sufficiency and exports

Japan has been historically challenged by marginal growth in its agricultural output, while in 2021, the
country’s agricultural production value declined. One of the biggest challenges for the country’s agriculture
Labour shortage an industry has been its chronic labour shortages and decrease in farmlands further threatened by the expected
ongoing issue decline in the country’s total population in the long term. As a result, agricultural production in Japan is
projected to record weak growth over the forecast period. To reverse the situation, the country is
investigating alternative ways to boost production through smart agriculture.

The weakening performance of agriculture in Japan is in turn challenging the country’s future food supply
stability. To address this, in the 2020 Basic Plan for Food, Agriculture and Rural Areas, the Ministry of
Japan has set target to Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries (MAFF) set a target to increase the country’s self-sufficiency rate in terms
increase self-sufficiency of production value from 67% in 2020 to 75% by 2030. To achieve this goal, MAFF committed to several
measures, including smart agriculture, highlighting the use of technological means, such as drones and robots
in farming, as well creating a public platform for agricultural data collection.

In 2021, Japan recorded a significant increase in its agricultural exports highlighting an opportunity for the
future development of the industry. Among the factors that benefited the rises in exports, the US, the EU and
The government aims
the UK have lifted their import restrictions implemented after the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011. The
to boost agricultural
devaluation of the Japanese yen has also strengthened the competitiveness of the country in international
exports
trade, while Japan’s participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is expected to
facilitate trade with other member states.
© Euromonitor International
 COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS 47
47

Definitions
Production: Total revenue (including export revenue) generated by all locally-registered companies, core activities of which fall under
industry definition range. Measured at basic prices/MSP. Also called Turnover or Turnover of Local Producers.
Market Size: Total value of industry-specific goods and/or services, whether produced domestically or imported, that are sold on a country’s
market. Measured at purchaser price/RSP.
Exports: Value of goods exported to foreign countries, including all production and other costs incurred up until the goods are placed on
board the international carrier for export, yet excluding international insurance and further transportation costs.
Imports: Value of goods delivered at the frontier of the importing country, including any freight, insurance and other costs incurred during
transportation of goods from the port of origin, yet before the payment of any import duties or other taxes within the country. Includes re-
exports.
Profits: Difference between Production and Total Costs (B2B Costs, Labour Costs, Taxes Less Subsidies). Profits are measured in local
currency units and USD.

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GLOBAL OVERVIEW OF THE AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY

For Further Insight please contact

Natalia Theofilopoulou
Senior Analyst
[email protected]
• www.linkedin.com/in/natalia-theofilopoulou/

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