PROBABILITY OF

COMMITING TYPE
I AND TYPE II
ERRORS
Activity: REBUS PUZZLES
Rebus puzzles, also known as
word picture puzzles or picture
riddles, use a combination of
images and words to convey a
phrase or message, typically a
common idiom or expression.
EXAMPLE
EXAMPLE

FOREHEAD
EXAMPLE
EXAMPLE

BREAKFAST
EYESHADOW
FORGET IT
3D MOVIE
BLANKET
TRY TO UNDERSTAND
TRY TO UNDERSTAND
rejected the true statement

accepted the false statement

TYPE I ERROR TYPE II ERROR
Rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true is called
a Type I error with probability denoted by alpha (𝜶).
In hypothesis testing, the normal curve that shows
the critical region is called the alpha region.

Accepting the null hypothesis when it is false is called

a Type II error with probability denoted by beta (𝛃). In
hypothesis testing, the normal curve that shows the
acceptance region is called the beta region.
 For example, consider a person in court who is
charged with murder. The jury needs to decide
whether the person in innocent (the null
hypothesis) or guilty (the alternative hypothesis).
As usual, we assume the person is innocent
unless the jury can provide sufficient evidence
that the person is guilty.
Ho: a person in court who is charged with murder
is innocent.
To summarize the difference between the Type I
and Type II errors, take a look at the table below.
 Let’s try

Direction: analyze the

possibilities of Sofia’s
conclusion. Identify if
it is a Type I Error,
Type II Error, or a
Correct Decision.
 Let’s try
If Sofia finds out that her
null hypothesis is …

1. true and she fails to

reject it, then she
commits a ___________.
 Let’s try
If Sofia finds out that her
null hypothesis is …

2. true and she rejects it,

then she commits a
_____________
 Let’s try
If Sofia finds out that her
null hypothesis is …

3. false and she fails to

reject it, then she
commits a __________.
 Let’s try
If Sofia finds out that her
null hypothesis is …

4. false and she rejects it,

then she commits a
_______________.
Example
Brian is starting his own food cart business
and he is choosing cities where he will run his
business. He wants to survey residents and test
at 5% level of significance whether the demand is
high enough to support his business or not
before he applies for the necessary permits to https//www.pngegg.com/en/png-whdgs

operate in his selected city. He will only choose a

city if there is strong evidence that the demand
there is high enough. We can state the null
hypothesis for his test as:

𝐻𝑜: The demand is high enough

 𝐻𝑜: The demand is high enough
1. What would be the consequence of a Type I error in
this setting?

a. He doesn't choose a city where demand is actually high

enough.
b. He chooses a city where demand is actually high enough.
c. He chooses a city where demand isn't actually high
enough.
 𝐻𝑜: The demand is high enough
2. What would be the consequence of a Type II error in
this setting?

a. He doesn't choose a city where demand is actually high

enough.
b. He chooses a city where demand is actually high enough.
c. He chooses a city where demand isn't actually high enough
3. What is the probability of Type
I error?

a. 0.10 b. 0.25
c. 0.05 d. 0.01
 PROBABILITY OF
COMMITING TYPE I
AND TYPE II
ERRORS
Type I error - Rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true
P(reject Ho, when Ho is true) = Probability of type I error
Type I error - Rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true
P(reject Ho, when Ho is true) = Probability of type I error

Type II error - Accepting the null hypothesis when it is false

P(accept Ho, when Ho is false) = Probability of type II error
Type I error - Rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true
P(reject Ho, when Ho is true) = Probability of type I error

Type II error - Accepting the null hypothesis when it is false

P(accept Ho, when Ho is false) = Probability of type II error

Statistical power, which is the probability of rejecting a

false null hypothesis, is calculated as 1-β (also expressed
as “1 - Type II error probability”).
For example: Type II error of 0.15, the power is 0.85.
Type II error of 0.05, the power is 0.95
Example 1
The teacher wants to test if college students take less than five
years to graduate from college, on the average, with a standard
deviation of 0.5 years. She obtained a mean of 5.5 years from a
random sample of 40 students. Suppose the actual population
mean is greater than 5 years, what is the probability that the
teacher concludes the average residence of college students is
less than 5 years at 5% level of significance?
Example 1
The teacher wants to test if college students take less than five
years to graduate from college, on the average, with a standard
deviation of 0.5 years. She obtained a mean of 5.5 years from a
random sample of 40 students. Suppose the actual population
mean is greater than 5 years, what is the probability that the
teacher concludes the average residence of college students is
less than 5 years at 5% level of significance?

Ho: College students take 5 years or more to graduate from college, µ ≥ 5

Ha: College students take less 5 years to graduate from college, µ < 5
Example 1
The teacher wants to test if college students take less than five
years to graduate from college, on the average, with a standard
deviation of 0.5 years. She obtained a mean of 5.5 years from a
random sample of 40 students. Suppose the actual population
mean is greater than 5 years, what is the probability that the
teacher concludes the average residence of college students is
less than 5 years at 5% level of significance?

Ho: College students take 5 years or more to graduate from college, µ ≥ 5

Ha: College students take less 5 years to graduate from college, µ < 5

P(reject Ho, when Ho is true) = α = 0.05

Type I error
𝜶=0.05
Region where 𝐻𝑜 is true

-1.65
Example 2:
We want to test if the average height of grade 11 students is
less than 70 inches with a standard deviation of 4 inches. A
random sample of 50 students was taken with a mean of 62
inches. If the true population mean is 68 inches, what is the
probability, at 1% level of significance, what we conclude that
the average height of grade 11 students is at least 70 inches?
Example 2:
We want to test if the average height of grade 11 students is
less than 70 inches with a standard deviation of 4 inches. A
random sample of 50 students was taken with a mean of 62
inches. If the true population mean is 68 inches, what is the
probability, at 1% level of significance, what we conclude that
the average height of grade 11 students is at least 70 inches?
Ho: The average height of grade 11 students is greater than or equal to 70 inches, µ ≥
70
Ha: The average height of grade 11 students is less than 70 inches, µ < 70
Example 2:
We want to test if the average height of grade 11 students is
less than 70 inches with a standard deviation of 4 inches. A
random sample of 50 students was taken with a mean of 62
inches. If the true population mean is 68 inches, what is the
probability, at 1% level of significance, what we conclude that
the average height of grade 11 students is at least 70 inches?
Ho: The average height of grade 11 students is greater than or equal to 70 inches, µ ≥
70
Ha: The average height of grade 11 students is less than 70 inches, µ < 70

P(failed to reject Ho, when Ho is not true) = β

We want to test if the average height of grade 11 students is less than 70 inches with a standard
deviation of 4 inches. A random sample of 50 students was taken with a mean of 62 inches. If the
true population mean is 68 inches, what is the probability, at 1% level of significance, what we
conclude that the average height of grade 11 students is at least 70 inches?
STEP 1: Calculate the z-
score corresponding to a =
0.01. (Use the z-table or t-
table).
We want to test if the average height of grade 11 students is less than 70 inches with a standard
deviation of 4 inches. A random sample of 50 students was taken with a mean of 62 inches. If the
true population mean is 68 inches, what is the probability, at 1% level of significance, what we
conclude that the average height of grade 11 students is at least 70 inches?
STEP 1: Calculate the z-
score corresponding to a =
0.01. (Use the z-table or t-
table).
z = -2.33
We want to test if the average height of grade 11 students is less than 70 inches with a standard
deviation of 4 inches. A random sample of 50 students was taken with a mean of 62 inches. If the
true population mean is 68 inches, what is the probability, at 1% level of significance, what we
conclude that the average height of grade 11 students is at least 70 inches?
STEP 1: Calculate the z-
score corresponding to a =
0.01. (Use the z-table or t-
table).
z = -2.33

𝜶=0.01

-2.33
We want to test if the average height of grade 11 students is less than 70 inches with a standard
deviation of 4 inches. A random sample of 50 students was taken with a mean of 62 inches. If the
true population mean is 68 inches, what is the probability, at 1% level of significance, what we
conclude that the average height of grade 11 students is at least 70 inches?
STEP 2: Calculate the score
corresponding to z-score
We want to test if the average height of grade 11 students is less than 70 inches with a standard
deviation of 4 inches. A random sample of 50 students was taken with a mean of 62 inches. If the
true population mean is 68 inches, what is the probability, at 1% level of significance, what we
conclude that the average height of grade 11 students is at least 70 inches?
STEP 2: Calculate the score
corresponding to z-score
We want to test if the average height of grade 11 students is less than 70 inches with a standard
deviation of 4 inches. A random sample of 50 students was taken with a mean of 62 inches. If the
true population mean is 68 inches, what is the probability, at 1% level of significance, what we
conclude that the average height of grade 11 students is at least 70 inches?
STEP 2: Calculate the score
corresponding to z-score
We want to test if the average height of grade 11 students is less than 70 inches with a standard
deviation of 4 inches. A random sample of 50 students was taken with a mean of 62 inches. If the
true population mean is 68 inches, what is the probability, at 1% level of significance, what we
conclude that the average height of grade 11 students is at least 70 inches?
We want to test if the average height of grade 11 students is less than 70 inches with a standard
deviation of 4 inches. A random sample of 50 students was taken with a mean of 62 inches. If the
true population mean is 68 inches, what is the probability, at 1% level of significance, what we
conclude that the average height of grade 11 students is at least 70 inches?
We want to test if the average height of grade 11 students is less than 70 inches with a standard
deviation of 4 inches. A random sample of 50 students was taken with a mean of 62 inches. If the
true population mean is 68 inches, what is the probability, at 1% level of significance, what we
conclude that the average height of grade 11 students is at least 70 inches?

STEP 3: Calculate the area

to the right of z = 1.2
We want to test if the average height of grade 11 students is less than 70 inches with a standard
deviation of 4 inches. A random sample of 50 students was taken with a mean of 62 inches. If the
true population mean is 68 inches, what is the probability, at 1% level of significance, what we
conclude that the average height of grade 11 students is at least 70 inches?

STEP 3: Calculate the area to the

right of z = 1.2
P(z > 1.20) = 1 - P(z < 1.2)
We want to test if the average height of grade 11 students is less than 70 inches with a standard
deviation of 4 inches. A random sample of 50 students was taken with a mean of 62 inches. If the
true population mean is 68 inches, what is the probability, at 1% level of significance, what we
conclude that the average height of grade 11 students is at least 70 inches?

STEP 3: Calculate the area to the

right of z = 1.2
P(z > 1.20) = 1 - P(z < 1.2)
= 1 - 0.8849
We want to test if the average height of grade 11 students is less than 70 inches with a standard
deviation of 4 inches. A random sample of 50 students was taken with a mean of 62 inches. If the
true population mean is 68 inches, what is the probability, at 1% level of significance, what we
conclude that the average height of grade 11 students is at least 70 inches?

STEP 3: Calculate the area to the

right of z = 1.2
P(z > 1.20) = 1 - P(z < 1.2)
= 1 - 0.8849
β = 0.1151
We want to test if the average height of grade 11 students is less than 70 inches with a standard
deviation of 4 inches. A random sample of 50 students was taken with a mean of 62 inches. If the
true population mean is 68 inches, what is the probability, at 1% level of significance, what we
conclude that the average height of grade 11 students is at least 70 inches?

STEP 3: Calculate the area to the

right of z = 1.2
P(z > 1.20) = 1 - P(z < 1.2)
= 1 - 0.8849
β = 0.1151

Type II error
11.51%

1.2
Example 3:
We want to test if the average height of Grade 11 students is 70
inches with a standard deviation of 7 inches. A random sample of
40 students was taken with a mean of 78 inches. If the true
population mean is 69 inches, what is the probability, at 5% level
of significance of committing a type II error?
Example 3:
We want to test if the average height of Grade 11 students is 70
inches with a standard deviation of 7 inches. A random sample of
40 students was taken with a mean of 78 inches. If the true
population mean is 69 inches, what is the probability, at 5% level
of significance of committing a type II error?

Ho: The average height of grade 11 students is 70 inches. μ = 70

Ha: The average height of grade 11 students is not 70 inches. μ ≠ 70
Example 3:
We want to test if the average height of Grade 11 students is 70
inches with a standard deviation of 7 inches. A random sample of
40 students was taken with a mean of 78 inches. If the true
population mean is 69 inches, what is the probability, at 5% level
of significance of committing a type II error?

Ho: The average height of grade 11 students is 70 inches. μ = 70

Ha: The average height of grade 11 students is not 70 inches. μ ≠ 70

P(failed to reject Ho, when Ho is not true) = β

We want to test if the average height of Grade 11 students is 70 inches with a
standard deviation of 7 inches. A random sample of 40 students was taken with
a mean of 78 inches. If the true population mean is 69 inches, what is the
probability, at 5% level of significance of committing a type II error?
We want to test if the average height of Grade 11 students is 70 inches with a
standard deviation of 7 inches. A random sample of 40 students was taken with
a mean of 78 inches. If the true population mean is 69 inches, what is the
probability, at 5% level of significance of committing a type II error?
We want to test if the average height of Grade 11 students is 70 inches with a
standard deviation of 7 inches. A random sample of 40 students was taken with
a mean of 78 inches. If the true population mean is 69 inches, what is the
probability, at 5% level of significance of committing a type II error?

a=0.025

-1.96 1.96
We want to test if the average height of Grade 11 students is 70 inches with a
standard deviation of 7 inches. A random sample of 40 students was taken with
a mean of 78 inches. If the true population mean is 69 inches, what is the
probability, at 5% level of significance of committing a type II error?
We want to test if the average height of Grade 11 students is 70 inches with a
standard deviation of 7 inches. A random sample of 40 students was taken with
a mean of 78 inches. If the true population mean is 69 inches, what is the
probability, at 5% level of significance of committing a type II error?
We want to test if the average height of Grade 11 students is 70 inches with a
standard deviation of 7 inches. A random sample of 40 students was taken with
a mean of 78 inches. If the true population mean is 69 inches, what is the
probability, at 5% level of significance of committing a type II error?

B = 85.33%

-1.06 2.86