Systematix Update On Oil & Gas Lower Gas Price To Boost Volume and
Systematix Update On Oil & Gas Lower Gas Price To Boost Volume and
Institutional Equities
Sep-23
Apr-23
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GAIL to benefit from higher volume and better petrochem and LHC margins
BSE Oil & Gas Sensex GAIL is expected to post a significant jump in YoY profits driven by a sharp recovery
Source: BSE, Systematix Institutional Research in profits owing to healthy volume growth in the transmission business (123mmscmd
vs 121.5mmscmd QoQ) and better petrochemical and LHC profits. Lower opex at the
gas transmission business to augment the bottom line.
Sudeep Anand
[email protected] Valuation and Outlook
+91 22 6704 8085
Oil & Gas sector has seen a strong 16.3% outperformance in the last 3 months over
Prathmesh Kamath the 3.6% return registered by Nifty. Both upstream and Refineries have seen a
[email protected]
+91 22 6704 8022
massive run-up while CGD stock’s gain was tepid. Currently, we have a HOLD rating
on GAIL, IGL, MGL, GSPL, PLNG, and Reliance while SELL on Gujarat Gas. The recent
Jennisa Popat correction in CGDs offers a decent upside in IGL and MGL. We will revisit our
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+91 22 6704 8066 numbers and recommendations post the result.
Investors are advised to refer disclosures made at the end of the research report.
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04 April 2024 Oil & Gas
Exhibit 1: Quarterly key price trend
Key monitorable Unit Q4FY23 Q1FY24 Q2FY24 Q3FY24 Q4FY24 % YoY % QoQ
Brent Crude US$/bbl 81.2 78.4 86.5 84.3 83.1 2.3 (1.4)
Dubai Crude US$/bbl 79.6 77.5 86.6 83.8 81.7 2.6 (2.5)
Henry Hub Natural Gas US$/mmbtu 2.7 2.1 2.6 2.8 2.4 (10.1) (12.7)
Spot LNG (JKL) US$/mmbtu 18.5 11.1 12.6 15.8 9.4 (48.9) (40.1)
Canadian Gas price US$/mmbtu 2.4 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.8 (23.3) 9.5
NBP Gas price US$/mmbtu 13.4 10.5 10.4 12.5 8.8 (34.5) (30.2)
Gross Refining Margin US$/bbl 8.3 4.3 9.7 5.5 7.4 (10.8) 34.5
Gasoline - Dubai Crude US$/bbl 16.9 12.7 13.4 7.4 13.1 (22.5) 77.0
Gasoil - Dubai Crude US$/bbl 26.5 14.6 28.1 25.6 23.0 (13.2) (10.2)
Naphtha - Dubai Crude US$/bbl (4.9) (13.4) (17.4) (12.5) (7.6) 54.3 (38.9)
Jet Kero - Dubai Crude US$/bbl 26.5 14.3 26.0 24.0 20.9 (21.1) (12.9)
FO - Dubai Crude US$/bbl (18.8) (12.8) (10.2) (15.4) (14.2) (24.5) (7.8)
GMM – Petrol (15-d avg) Rs/ltr 7.8 10.3 6.3 8.8 7.7 (1.3) (12.5)
GMM – Diesel (15-d avg) Rs/ltr 1.2 9.4 -0.6 -1.5 2.9 141.7 (293.3)
Avg exchange rate (Rs/USD) Rs/US$ 82.2 82.2 82.7 83.2 83.1 1.1 (0.2)
Source: Bloomberg, Systematix Institutional Research
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04 April 2024 Oil & Gas
Exhibit 2: Quarterly estimates
Companies Particulars (Rs mn) Q4FY24E Q3FY24 Q4FY23 QoQ (%) YoY (%)
Net Sales 22,90,740 22,50,860 21,29,450 1.8 7.6
EBITDA 4,30,224 4,06,560 3,84,400 5.8 11.9
Reliance Industries
Net Profit 1,78,113 1,72,650 1,92,990 3.2 (7.7)
EBITDA margin (%) 18.8 18.1 18.1 71.9 72.9
Net Sales 3,18,013 3,42,365 3,28,432 (7.1) (3.2)
EBITDA 40,453 38,226 3,072 5.8 1,216.8
Gail India
Net Profit 30,831 28,426 6,035 8.5 410.9
EBITDA margin (%) 12.7 11.2 0.9 155.5 1,178.5
Net Sales 1,22,347 1,47,472 1,38,739 (17.0) (11.8)
EBITDA 13,022 17,060 9,431 (23.7) 38.1
Petronet LNG
Net Profit 8,917 11,907 6,142 (25.1) 45.2
EBITDA margin (%) 10.6 11.6 6.8 -92.5 384.6
Net Sales 38,639 39,291 39,286 (1.7) (1.6)
EBITDA 4,201 4,007 5,603 4.8 (25.0)
Gujarat Gas
Net Profit 2,398 2,203 3,692 8.9 (35.0)
EBITDA (Rs/scm) 4.8 4.8 7.0 0.6 (31.7)
Net Sales 37,074 35,562 36,872 4.3 0.5
EBITDA 6,222 5,641 4,663 10.3 33.4
Indraprastha Gas
Net Profit 4,380 3,896 3,298 12.4 32.8
EBITDA (Rs/scm) 7.6 7.0 6.0 8.6 26.7
Net Sales 5,634 5,543 4,430 1.6 27.2
EBITDA 4,164 3,796 2,947 9.7 41.3
GSPL
Net Profit 2,925 2,622 2,243 11.6 30.4
EBITDA margin (%) 73.9 68.5 66.5 542.6 738
Net Sales 15,729 15,632 16,031 0.6 (1.9)
EBITDA 5,087 4,487 3,897 13.4 30.5
Mahanagar Gas
Net Profit 3,599 3,172 2,688 13.5 33.9
EBITDA (Rs/scm) 14.7 13.3 12.8 10.5 14.8
Net Sales 5,37,436 5,85,865 5,63,790 (8.3) (4.7)
EBITDA 73,149 73,217 29,613 (0.1) 147.0
Gas Sector
Net Profit 53,050 52,226 24,098 1.6 120.1
EBITDA margin (%) 13.6 12.5 5.3 111.3 836
Net Sales 91,442 90,485 92,189 1.1 (0.8)
EBITDA 15,510 14,135 14,163 9.7 9.5
CGDs
Net Profit 10,377 9,271 9,678 11.9 7.2
EBITDA margin (%) 17.0 15.6 15.4 134.0 159.9
Source: Company, Systematix Institutional Research
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04 April 2024 Oil & Gas
Exhibit 3: Estimates of companies within our universe
CMP TP Mkt Cap Revenue (Rs bn) Ebitda (Rs bn) EPS (Rs)
Companies Reco
(Rs) (Rs) (Rs bn) FY24E FY25E FY26E FY24E FY25E FY26E FY24E FY25E FY26E
Gail India 189 182 HOLD 124.3 1245.5 1276.0 1328.1 131.2 136.0 143.9 13.9 14.5 15.1
Gujarat Gas 544 404 SELL 37.5 158.5 143.8 155.0 17.2 19.6 21.4 14.3 16.6 18.4
Petronet LNG 283 280 HOLD 42.4 539.3 571.3 595.4 53.7 55.7 61.7 23.1 23.4 23.3
Indraprastha Gas 441 470 HOLD 30.9 146.1 158.4 166.5 24.6 27.9 29.2 25.4 28.6 29.9
Gujarat State
367 350 HOLD 20.7 20.6 21.6 22.7 15.3 16.0 16.8 22.7 23.8 27.2
Petronet
Mahanagar Gas 1,405 1,500 HOLD 13.9 62.9 63.4 67.1 19.3 18.8 19.6 136.5 130.4 136.5
Reliance
2,943 2,745 HOLD 1991.4 9428.4 10129.7 10293.7 1712.2 1827.1 1930.3 99.0 113.0 115.0
Industries
Source: Systematix Institutional Research
GAIL India 124 13.6 13.1 12.5 10.5 10.0 9.4 2.1 1.9 1.8 15.1 14.5 14.1
Gujarat Gas 37 38.0 32.7 29.6 21.3 18.5 16.5 4.8 4.2 3.8 12.6 13.0 12.8
Petronet LNG 42 12.2 12.1 12.1 6.5 6.7 6.5 2.6 2.4 2.2 21.3 19.8 18.3
Indraprastha Gas 31 17.4 15.5 14.7 11.2 9.7 9.0 3.7 3.2 2.8 21.3 20.5 18.7
Gujarat State
21 16.2 15.4 13.5 15.9 12.6 11.5 2.1 1.9 1.7 12.7 12.3 12.8
Petronet
Mahanagar Gas 14 10.3 10.8 10.3 6.2 6.1 5.4 2.8 2.5 2.2 27.4 22.8 20.9
Reliance
1,991 29.7 26.0 25.6 13.2 11.8 11.2 2.2 2.1 1.9 7.5 7.9 7.4
Industries
Source: Bloomberg, Systematix Institutional Research
Gujarat Gas Ltd 544 (0.9) (7.7) 7.5 29.2 18.0 18.0 4.9 254.2 321.3
Petronet LNG Ltd 283 6.5 (2.9) 21.9 24.8 25.4 27.0 41.7 18.6 309.8
Indraprastha Gas Ltd 441 5.4 (1.2) 4.0 (3.6) 4.9 5.5 13.4 44.0 658.7
Gujarat State Petronet Ltd 367 5.2 (1.4) 9.9 29.4 39.9 20.0 30.2 105.4 438.9
Mahanagar Gas Ltd 1,405 3.6 (8.8) 14.4 25.2 52.6 17.1 69.6 40.3 233.8
Reliance Industries Ltd 2,943 2.1 (2.4) 13.3 27.2 38.6 13.9 23.0 140.9 590.8
S&P BSE OIL & GAS 28,340 3.5 (1.9) 19.9 52.2 64.0 23.1 43.8 91.0 195.7
NSE Nifty 50 Index 22,435 2.0 0.1 3.6 15.4 28.9 3.2 24.9 92.3 235.1
Source: Bloomberg, Systematix Institutional Research
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04 April 2024 Oil & Gas
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04 April 2024 Oil & Gas
DISCLOSURES/APPENDIX
I. ANALYST CERTIFICATION
I, Sudeep Anand, Prathmesh Kamath, Jennisa Popat, hereby certify that (1) views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my/our personal views about any or all of the
subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report, (2) no part of my/our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or
views expressed in this research report by Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Limited (SSSIL) or its group/associate companies, (3) reasonable care is taken to achieve and maintain
independence and objectivity in making any recommendations.
I. ISSUER SPECIFIC REGULATORY DISCLOSURES, unless specifically mentioned in point no. 9 below:
1. The research analyst(s), SSSIL, associates or relatives do not have any financial interest in the company(ies) covered in this report.
2. The research analyst(s), SSSIL, associates or relatives collectively do not hold more than 1% of the securities of the company(ies) covered in this report as of the end of the
month immediately preceding the distribution of the research report.
3. The research analyst(s), SSSIL, associates or relatives did not have any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this research report.
4. The research analyst, SSSIL and its associates have not received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or any other products or
services from the company(ies) covered in this report in the past twelve months.
5. The research analyst, SSSIL or its associates have not managed or co-managed a private or public offering of securities for the company(ies) covered in this report in the previous
twelve months.
6. SSSIL or its associates have not received compensation or other benefits from the company(ies) covered in this report or from any third party in connection with this research
report.
7. The research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the company(ies) covered in this research report.
8. The research analyst and SSSIL have not been engaged in market making activity for the company(ies) covered in this research report.
9. Details of SSSIL, research analyst and its associates pertaining to the companies covered in this research report:
Sr. Yes /
Particulars
No. No.
1 Whether compensation was received from the company(ies) covered in the research report in the past 12 months for investment banking transaction by SSSIL. No
2 Whether research analyst, SSSIL or its associates and relatives collectively hold more than 1% of the company(ies) covered in the research report. No
3 Whether compensation has been received by SSSIL or its associates from the company(ies) covered in the research report. No
Whether SSSIL or its affiliates have managed or co-managed a private or public offering of securities for the company(ies) covered in the research report in the
4 No
previous twelve months.
Whether research analyst, SSSIL or associates have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or any other
5 No
products or services from the company(ies) covered in the research report in the last twelve months.
10. There is no material disciplinary action taken by any regulatory authority that impacts the equity research analysis activities.
STOCK RATINGS
BUY (B): The stock's total return is expected to exceed 15% over the next 12 months.
HOLD (H): The stock's total return is expected to be within -15% to +15% over the next 12 months.
SELL (S): The stock's total return is expected to give negative returns of more than 15% over the next 12 months.
NOT RATED (NR): The analyst has no recommendation on the stock under review.
INDUSTRY VIEWS
ATTRACTIVE (AT): Fundamentals/valuations of the sector are expected to be attractive over the next 12-18 months.
NEUTRAL (NL): Fundamentals/valuations of the sector are expected to neither improve nor deteriorate over the next 12-18 months.
CAUTIOUS (CS): Fundamentals/valuations of the sector are expected to deteriorate over the next 12-18 months.
II. DISCLAIMER
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