Equity Research Group Project (Sample)
Equity Research Group Project (Sample)
Vietnam Airlines - BB
April 13th 2024
RESEARCH TEAM (Phần tên và thông tin các thành viên trong nhóm)
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Yield No dividend
yield
Company Description
Vietnam Airlines has emerged as the leader of aviation industry in Vietnam after 20 years of
development at an average annual growth rate in the double-digits, Vietnam Airlines has established our
name as a symbol of Vietnamese national pride, with a global network and well-deserved position in
region. In 2015, the airline marked an exceptional milestone to become a joint-stock company. The close
relationship between the Vietnam Airlines and our shareholders has played a key role in the progress of
sustainable development.
Vietnam Airlines is committed to collaborating with shareholders, the transparency of information and
disclosure publicity, maintaining and improving communication to shareholders and achieving an
efficient business operation based on balancing the interests’ shareholders and the economic
development of Vietnam.
Market Position
Vietnam Airlines: is the national flag carrier, occupying 40% domestic market share. The carrier currently
operates 94 aircraft with an average age of 7.8 years and plans to expand to 166-186 aircraft by 2030. In
the first half of 2022, Vietnam Airlines transported 9.36 million passengers. Despite the strong recovery
in revenue, the carrier suffered losses of approximately USD 228 million. According to its report, the
airline is seeking financial aid from the Government, and loan payment extensions from lenders
(commercial banks, lessors, and suppliers). Besides that, Vietnam Airlines also finds other solutions like
aircraft/ engines liquidation or divesting 35% stake in Cambodia Angkor Air, delivery extension of 5
aircraft typed B787-10 and A320 Neo by end of 2022 or early 2023, and cancellation of 4 aircraft typed
B787-10 and A320. The freight transport business has witnessed good performance with a revenue
increase of 80% compared to the same period in 2021.
SWOT analysis
Strengths - Strong capital and legal Weaknesses - Being affected by the
support government and the
- Good reputation political factors.
- Strong subsidiaries
(VAECO & VINAPCO)
Opportunities - Strong support from the Threats - Domestics competitors
government helps - International competitors
develop domestic and
international flight routes.
- Can issue share to raise
capital.
Price Target
2. The Enterprise value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is a tool that compares the asset value of a
company to its annual EBITDA (which can be either a historical statistic or a forecast). This multiple
is used to assess the worth of a business and to equate it with the worth of other related companies
(CFI, 2019). Here is the formula to calculate the EV/EBITDA ratio (CFI, 2019):
𝐸𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑒 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒
𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇𝐷𝐴 =
𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇𝐷𝐴
3. DCF is a specific type of financial modeling tool used to value a business. DCF stands for Discounted
Cash Flow, so a DCF model is simply a forecast of a company’s unlevered free cash flow discounted
back to today’s value, which is called the Net Present Value (NPV). In this particular project, we will
use FCFF (Free Cash Flow to Firm).
Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) represents the amount of cash flow from operations available for
distribution after accounting for depreciation expenses, taxes, working capital, and investments.
FCFF is a measurement of a company's profitability after all expenses and reinvestments. It is one of
the many benchmarks used to compare and analyze a firm's financial health.
The FCFF valuation approach estimates the value of the firm as the present value of future FCFF
discounted at the weighted average cost of capital:
Risks to Recommendation
1. Economic risks
- Economic growth: Fluctuations in GDP growth rate will directly affect the spending level of the
economy, thereby affecting consumer travel demand, and thereby directly affecting
transportation business activities. Air transport of Vietnam Airlines.
- Inflation: Rising inflation may negatively affect Vietnam Airlines' production and business
activities due to increased input costs, reducing profits; Besides, consumers also cut costs,
reducing spending on tourism or air travel, causing revenue to decline, thereby reducing
Vietnam Airlines' total profit.
- Exchange rate: Due to the specific nature of Vietnam Airlines' production and business activities,
there are many loans and financial leases to purchase aircraft and machinery and equipment;
Paying high-value expenses to foreign partners, Vietnam Airlines' exchange rate risk comes
mainly from fluctuations in the USD/VND exchange rate and some other strong foreign
currencies (CNY, JPY, EUR... ). In2023, the exchange rate was quite stable due to a number of
positive macroeconomic factors and the State Bank of Vietnam's support in maintaining stable
exchange rates in the domestic foreign exchange market.
2. Legal risks
- Production and business activities of Vietnam Airlines and its member units are governed by the
legal system and policies of the State of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, including: Enterprise
Law, laws and regulations. tax policy, securities laws and stock market. Because the Vietnamese
legal system is in the process of being completed, policy changes can always occur and can
create favorable conditions or have a negative impact on Vietnam Airlines' business operations.
INCOME STATEMENT (Bảng báo cáo kết quả hoạt động kinh doanh)
Sales growth - Vietnam Airlines' total revenue has increased steadily in recent years. It can be shown
that the growth of this total revenue can come from 2 things. Firstly, the number of people flying
Vietnam Airlines has increased steadily over the years. This is good because it shows that the business is
on the rise. Second, the airline's airline ticket prices are steadily increasing. Increasing ticket prices
depends on many factors and is inevitable. However, if ticket prices increase too high, the number of
passengers flying on the airline will decrease according to the law of supply and demand. This will have a
negative impact on the business. In 2023, we have seen airline ticket prices increase, so it can be said
that the gradual growth of Vietnam Airlines' revenue comes mainly from increasing ticket prices.
Vietnam Airlines' gross profit has been negative in 2022 and 2023. This shows that the business's cost of
goods sold is too high, and this is the key to negative net income. This may be due to rising crude oil
prices and causing cost of goods sold to increase.
In 2019, in addition to favorable factors, business activities faced many difficult challenges due to
market changes due to increased supply and increased competition. The ceiling ticket prices for its
market share of revenue have dropped sharply, and currencies in many of Vietnam Airlines' main selling
markets have depreciated against the US dollar. Domestic airport infrastructure continues to increase
the load on airlines. Not only has it started operations, recruiting a specialized workforce of aircraft
pilots and engineers has caused difficulties for Vietnam Airlines' production activities.
By 2020, Vietnam Airlines' total assets reached 58,571,051,175,784 billion VND, down 15.1% compared
to the beginning of the year. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a particularly serious impact and
completely changed Vietnam Airlines' production and business activities. Since March 2020, Vietnam
In 2018-2019, Vietnam Airlines' debt decreased rapidly because Vietnam Airlines balanced its cash flow
appropriately to prepay some long-term loans. During the period 2019-2020, equity decreased by an
average of 50.7% and liabilities decreased significantly (1.9%). As the market enters the off-peak period,
competition in the market continues to be fierce due to overcrowding and ticket prices remaining at low
levels, affecting developments in the COVID-19 pandemic. Accumulated financial resources and balances
that have improved over the years are depleted and change in a positive direction.
Current Ratio
2021 2022 2023
Current Assets 12.479.745.873.316 11.853.414.741.618 2.907.309.306.420
Current 24.579.592.575.288 24.789.970.413.042 26.552.383.605.106
Liabilities
HVN Current 0,51 0,48 0,15
ratio
Industry Current 0,88 0,88 0,88
ratio
Current assets are 0.63 times larger than short-term liabilities in 2019, 0.50 times in 2020, 0.51 times in
2021, 0.48 times in 2022 and 0.14 times in 2023. Current liquidity ratio of Vietnam Airlines company
Các chỉ số còn lại các bạn làm tương tự như trên
CASH FLOW STATEMENT (Bảng lưu chuyển tiền tệ) (phần này các bạn làm tương tự như trên)
FCF / Sales – historical performance and trend. (tính con số mới nhất. Các con số cũ là bao nhiêu? Xu
hướng như thế nào? Ổn định hay không? Tại sao?)
FCF / Net Income – how well does the company convert EPS into actual cash? (tính con số mới nhất. Các
con số cũ là bao nhiêu? Xu hướng như thế nào? Ổn định hay không? Tại sao? Công ty có làm tốt trong
việc chuyển EPS sang tiền mặt không?)
FCF / Net Assets – how good are they at generating cash on their net assets. tính con số mới nhất. Các
con số cũ là bao nhiêu? Xu hướng như thế nào? Ổn định hay không? Tại sao? Tiền mặt kiếm được từ tài
sản róng có đang ổn ko?)
Financial Statement Quality (Chất lượng báo cáo tài chính) (phần này chị xin phép ko thể đưa ra nhận
xét vì báo cáo tài chính của HVN có vấn đề và hơi nhạy cảm. Chủ yếu là phần này các bạn nhận xét các
báo cáo tài chính của doanh nghiệp đó có minh bạch không và liệu có chỗ nào đáng nghi ko? Ví dụ như
trốn thuế hoặc khai khống)
Are the numbers clean or are there many large write offs?
Do they keep changing how they report numbers?
Question marks...
VALUATION
1. Relative valuation: VietJet is the comparison company
P/E ratio
VietJet P/E ratio = 10
HVN Price = 10 x EPS = 10 x 1,500 VND = 15,000 VND
EV/EBITDA
VietJet EV/EBITDA = 11.8
HVN Enterprise value = 11.8 x EBITDA = 11.8 x 8,832 billion VND = 104,217.6 billion VND
Depreciation 15,434,547,82
3
We can calculate the average growth rate, free cash flow, equity value and share price after 2023:
Free cash flow 2023 = FCF0 = [ EBIT (1 – T)] – Net capital investment = [Net income + Depreciation] – [Net
income x Retention rate] = [2,537,461,062,000 + 15,434,547,823] - (2,537,461,062,000 * 32.2%) =
1,735,833,148,000VND
𝐹𝐶𝐹2029 = 𝐹𝐶𝐹2028 × (1 + 𝑔) = 2,171,325,685,000 × (1 + 6.34%) = 2,308,987,734,000𝑉𝑁𝐷
Now we will calculate WACC
𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶 = 𝑟𝑑 (1 − 𝑇)𝑤𝑑 + 𝑟𝑐 𝑤𝑐
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑙𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑠 31,934,000,000,000
𝑤𝑑 = ′
= = 55.32%
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑙𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑠 + 𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦 57,717,000,000,000
𝑟𝑑 = 𝑌𝑇𝑀 = 8.42%
𝑤𝑐 = 1 − 55.32% = 44.68%
𝑟𝑐1 = 7.14%
𝑟𝑐2 = 𝑟𝑑 + 𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑢𝑚 = 8.42% + 4% = 12.42%
𝑟𝑐1 +𝑟𝑐2 7.14%+12.42%
𝑟𝑐 = 2
= 2
= 9.78%
Tax rate = 35%
𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶 = 𝑟𝑑 (1 − 𝑇)𝑤𝑑 + 𝑟𝑐 𝑤𝑐 = 8.42% × (1 − 35%) × 55.32% + 44.68% × 9.78% = 7.4%
𝐹𝐶𝐹𝐹2029 2,308,987,734,000
Terminal value = = = = 21,782,901,500,000𝑉𝑁𝐷
𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶−𝑔 7.4%−6.34%
𝐹𝐶𝐹2024 𝐹𝐶𝐹2025 𝐹𝐶𝐹2026 𝐹𝐶𝐹2027 𝐹𝐶𝐹2028+𝑇𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒
Firm value = [(1 + 𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶)1 ] + [(1 + 𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶)2 ] + [(1 + 𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶)3 ] + [(1+𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶)4 ] + [ (1+𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶)5
] =
23,088,459,650,000,000VND
𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑐 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒−𝐷𝑒𝑏𝑡 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑑 23,088,459,650,000,000−31,934,000,000,000
Share price = 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔
= 1,418,290,847
= 16,301VND
With this method, we can see that Vietnam Airlines stock is now overvalued with the current market price
of 20,381 VND. This can be resulted in the high depreciation because an airline firm tend to have aircrafts
which is depreciated in large amount in a period of time.
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