An International Multi-Disciplinary Journal , Ethiopia

Vol. 4 (2) April, 2010

ISSN 1994-9057 (Print) ISSN 2070-0083 (Online)

Accident Prediction Models for Akure – Ondo Carriageway,

Ondo State Southwest Nigeria; Using Multiple Linear
Regressions (Pp. 30-49)

Oyedepo, Olugbenga J. - Civil Engineering Department,Federal University

of Technology, Akure, Nigeria.
E mail: [email protected]

Makinde, Oluyemisi O. - Civil Engineering Department,Rufus Giwa

Polytechnic,Owo, Nigeria.
E mail: [email protected]

Abstract:
Accident data on the 52km Akure-Ondo Carriageway and Spot Speed data
were collected and analyzed. The analysis of the Spot Speed gives an average
of 51.5km/hr and 110.75km/hr for the 15th and 85th percentile speed
respectively, the 85th percentile speed is higher than the posted speed limit of
60km/hr which indicate that the vehicle travelling at this speed are
susceptible to accident. The analysis for the study area also shows that 759
peopled were involved in the accidents, 108 persons were killed and about
348 persons were injured between 2002-2007, 38% of the accident were
fatal accident and 62% non-fatal accident, However, the regression analysis
carried out on the accident data with number of accident as the dependent
variables and number of people killed in the accident(X1), number of people
injure(X2), number of people involved in the accident(X3) as independent
variables; gives a coefficient of correlation “R” value of 70.70% and
coefficient of determination “R2”of 49.70% respectively. Factors such as
driver’s behavior, poorly maintained vehicles, non adherence to traffic rules,
poorly maintained road and verges, and over-speeding are causatives factors
to road accident. However, road safety plans and road safety audit that are

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 African Research Review Vol. 4(2) April, 2010. Pp. 30-49

effective strategies that could be used by the authorities concerned for

mitigation of road accident are recommended..
Keywords: Road Accident, Carriageway, Spot Speed, Road Safety
Plans and Road Safety Audit
Introduction
Transportation is vital both to the economic success and to the quality of life
in urban and rural areas. However, the rapid growth of city populations and
corresponding vehicle kilometre of travel, commerce, and transportation
infrastructure has generated negative effects such as congestion, deterioration
of air quality, noise, and motor vehicle crashes. An accident is an unpleasant,
undesirable or damage that happens unexpectedly or by chance. Road
accidents has been a treat to the safety of family members and are associated
with numerous problems each of which needed to be addressed separately;
human, vehicle and environmental factors play roles, before, during and after
trauma event. According to Tandoh (2003), road accidents are becoming very
common and are robbing the nation of its valuable human resources, he noted
that the implications of these lead to both social and economic trauma. He
emphasized that road accidents can be curbed by mainly educating drivers on
defensive driving skills and also the enforcement of traffic laws.
Every year more than 1.17million people die in road crashes around the
world, 70% of these occur in developing countries; globally, every 10million
people are crippled or injured each year, 65% of deaths involved pedestrians,
35% pedestrians are children. It has been estimated that million more will die
and 60million will be injured during the next 10years in developing countries
unless urgent action is taken (US DOT 2003). US DOT (2003) also reported
that one person died in roadway during crashes nearly every 12 minutes, and
of that number 25,136 died in roadway departure crashes, 9,213 in
intersection crashes and 4,749 in pedestrian crashes. The World Health
Organization has estimated that nearly 25% of fatal injuries worldwide are a
result of road traffic crashes, with 90% of the fatalities occurring in low and
middle income countries. (The World Report on Road Traffic Injury
Prevention, World Health Organization, 2004). Road accidents cause
significant social and economic costs (typically between 1 and 3 percent of
GNP) [Ross et-al R. (1991). They also result in the use of a high proportion
of medical facilities and the scarce depletion of foreign exchange. The Global
Burden on Disease Study undertaken by the World Health Organization
(WHO), Harvard University and World Bank showed that in 1990 the traffic
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Accident Prediction Models for Akure-Ondo Carriageway…Using Multiple Linear Regression

sector was accessed to be the world ninth most important health concern. It is
forecasted that by the year 2020 road accident would move up to third place
leading causes of death and disability facing the world community.
In developing countries, growth in urbanization and in the number of
vehicles has lead to increased traffic congestion in urban centers and increase
in traffic accidents on road networks, which were never designed for the
volumes and types of traffic that they are now to carry. There is also
competition between different classes of road users coupled with poor road
maintenance, bad and inadequate provision of road infrastructure. All these
have contributed to the serious road safety problems in developing countries
like Nigeria.
In Nigeria, about 300,000 persons lost their lives in 1,000,000 road accidents
between 1960 and 2005-a period of 45years, while over 900,000 person
suffered various degrees of injuries within the same period (FRSC and
Balogun, 2005). The accident situation is more serious in Nigeria because of
the rapid growth of motor vehicles in the past few years and the inadequacy
of many of our roads. The trend in the accidents and fatalities in Nigeria for
the period 1960 to 2006 is shown pictorial in Figure 1.
The causes of accident being interplay of a variety of factors, the analysis of
accident data presents formidable problems. Qualitative methods of analysis
of accident can provide insight into the causes that contributed to accident
and can often help to identify the black spots on the street system. More
recently, emphasis has shifted to the application of statistical technique in
planning and analyzing experiments into the effectiveness of accident
prevention measure and development of accident model. Some of the
statistical techniques are Regression methods, Poisson distribution and Chi
square test for comparing accident data.
Many researchers have attempted to find the variables most highly associated
with crashes. Ross et al (1991) studied the prediction of the number of
crashes versus the crash rate using Poisson regression. This type of
regression was used to model both the crash and crash rate. Small data sets
for several intersections were used for this study. Several ways of modeling
highway safety were investigated, including different representations of
traffic exposure and intersection effects as independent variables.
They suggested that the Poisson distribution allows for the relationship
between exposure and crashes to be more accurately modeled as opposed to
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 African Research Review Vol. 4(2) April, 2010. Pp. 30-49

the linear relationship assumed in crash rate prediction. Logistic regression (a

type of regression where the dependent is categorical as opposed to a
numerical variable) has been the most popular technique in developing injury
severity prediction models. Lui and McGee (1998) used logistic regression to
analyzed the probability of fatal outcomes of accidents given that the crash
has occurred. In another study, a logistic regression approach was used to
examine a contribution of individual variable to the injury severity (Al-
Ghamdi, 2002).
This paper lays emphasis on accident studies on the 52km long Akure-Ondo
road ( a rural road) in South West Nigeria; while, the primary objective of the
study is to identify factors that contribute to the cause of accident and
develop an accident prediction model for the road segment using regression
technique.
Accident Categorization
In order to provide a valuation of an accident it is necessary to have a
consistent set of definitions for casualty severities, accident severities and
the various components of costs associated with them within the country
concerned. A well accepted set of categories for the classification of
accidents is that developed by Nellthorp et al (1998) and is detailed in Table
1.0 below.
Methodology
The accident analysis process involves the identification of accident black
spot locations, establishment of general patterns of accident, analysis of
factors, and site studies. Site investigation is a very important element of any
accident investigation; the purpose of site investigation is to support the data
from analysis; this can give the best result in the study. The functions of site
investigations are to;
• To confirm accident causal factors as suspected from the analysis.
• To correlate analysis findings and additional information with the
site, route or area to gain a better appreciation of the problems.
• To identify any accident causal factor that was not apparent through
the analysis of the data.
• To observe traffic and road user behaviour
Accident data were collected from Federal Road Safety Corps sector 19.3
Akure from the year 2002 to 2007 as shown in Appendix 2.0, this was used

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Accident Prediction Models for Akure-Ondo Carriageway…Using Multiple Linear Regression

to develop of an accident prediction model using Multiple Linear

Regression.. However, spot speed data were collected using the stop watch
method as it is easy and readily available for the Nigeria situation, this is
used to determine the 15th and 85th percentile speed values to verified the
posted speed value on the carriageway.
Result and Analysis
The analysis of the accident data collected shows that there is a reduction in
accident trend from 2002 to 2007; this is shown in Figure 2.0 below.
However, there were 62.0% reductions between 2002 and 2003, 37.0%
increase between 2004 to 2005 while 85.0% reduction was obtained between
2006 to 2007, thus, showing improvement in road safety at the study
location.

Accident Prediction Modeling

The accident data were modelled using multiple linear regressions. The
dependent variable for the model is the fatality (F); while the independent
variables are defined as follows:
• The number of people killed in the accident(X1)
• The number of people injure(X2)
• The number of people involved in the accident(X3).
However, the following variables are used for the degree of fatality of the
accident:
When the accident is minor, F=1
When the accident is serious, F=2; and
When the accident is fatal, F=3.

The model obtained using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) is:
F = 0.119X1 + 0.075199X2 – 0.007916X3 + 1.562

Remarks:
From the model equation, the positive sign in the coefficient of X1 and X2
indicate that an increase in their numbers is also associated with an increase
in the nature of the accident (fatality). However, the negative sign in the
coefficient of X3 indicates the occurrence of Multi-collinearity in the
independent variables; which caused X3 to be highly correlated with X1 and
X2 and has low correlation with the fatality (F).

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 African Research Review Vol. 4(2) April, 2010. Pp. 30-49

Model Summary
Model R R Square Adjusted R Std. Error of
Square Estimate
1. 0.705 0.497 0.479 .543

Significance Test of the Regression Model

Model Source of Sum of Degree of Mean Square F
Variation Squares Freedom
Regression 24.219 3 8.073 27.357
Residual 24.494 83 .295

Total 48.713 86
( a) Predictors: ( Constant ), involved, Killed, Injured
( b ) Dependent Variables: Fatality

Prediction Ability of the Model:

• Coefficient of Correlation “R”
R = 0.705 which means that there is 70.5% linear relationship
between the dependent and independent variables
• Coefficient of Determination”R2”
R2 = 0.497 which means that 49.7% of the dependent variable is
explained by the independent variables.

Accident Scenario
The analysis of the accident data collected from the FRSC for the study area
shows that 759 peopled were involved in the accidents. It also revealed that
108 persons were killed and about 348 persons were injured between 2002-
2007; this is shown schematically in Figure 2.The highest number of fatality
was recorded in 2002; the analysis also showed that there were 38% fatal
accident and 62% non-fatal accident, this is depicted in Figure 3. The
accident frequency distribution by vehicle involvement as shown in Figure
4 are Buses(48%), Cars(29%), Lorries/truck(22%) and Bike(1%).

Analysis of Speed Data

The spot speed data collected at the two selected locations is as shown in
Tables 2 and 3 respectively; while the cumulative frequency curve is depicted

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Accident Prediction Models for Akure-Ondo Carriageway…Using Multiple Linear Regression

in Figures 5.0 and 6.0. The analysis gives average values of 51.5km/hr and
110.75km/hr for the 15th and 85th percentile speeds. The 85th percentile speed
being higher than the posted speed limit value of 60km/hr; the implication is
that vehicle travelling above the posted speed limit is susceptible to accident.
Thus, the higher speed contributed to the crashes on the carriageway.
Summary of Findings
The analysis of spot speed indicated that higher value of 85th percentile
contributed to the accident on the carriageway with a posted speed limit of
60km/hr; other contributing factors are drivers’ behavior; poorly maintained
vehicles; non adherence to traffic rules; poorly maintained road and verges;
and over-speeding
Remedial Measures
Several measures such as the three E’s viz-a-viz education, engineering and
enforcement has been used for the mitigation of road accident. However,
road safety plans and road safety audit are strategies that could be used by the
authorities concerned for effective mitigation of road accident.
• Road Safety Plan: The authorities in charge should produce annual
road plans and guidance. The plan should set out the authorities
strategies for road safety and plans for safety measures. These will
cover road safety engineering measures such as accident data
summary, road user education, publicity, enforcement, safety target,
coordination, encouragement of safety awareness, and monitoring.

• Road Safety Audit: Safety audit are primarily intended to ensure that
new road schemes, improvement to highways and traffic management
measures are designed and implemented to operate as safely as
possible. The audit will identify potential safety hazards typically
under different grades of severity such as problem or warning.

• Pavement Widening: Considering the fact that the road was

constructed over two decades ago when the vehicular volume was low,
increasing the pavement by dualizing it will reduce the accident on the
carriageway.
Conclusion
The analysis of the accident data collected shows that 759 peopled were
involved in the accidents, 108 persons were killed and about 348 persons

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 African Research Review Vol. 4(2) April, 2010. Pp. 30-49

were injured between 2002 and 2007. There were 38% fatal accident and
62% non-fatal accident, while vehicle involvement are Buses (48%), Cars
(29%), Lorries/truck(22%) and Bike(1%). The spot speed data collected at
the two selected locations gives average values of 51.5km/hr and
110.75km/hr for the 15th and 85th percentile speeds respectively. The 85th
percentile speed being higher than the posted speed limit value of 60km/hr;
the implication is that vehicle travelling above the posted speed limit is
susceptible to accident.

Road accidents in Nigeria have been on the increase. Some of the factors that
are responsible for those accidents have been outlined in this paper. To
promote road safety in the country, the government, the agencies involved
and the general public have significant role to play. The government should
ensure that there are good roads for road users and should make laws and
regulations which govern the use of the roads by all categories of road users.
References
Charman S. and Mclnerney R.(2009): Vaccines for Road- The new IRAP
Tools To Safe Lives; Institute of Transportation Engineers
FRSC and Balogun Y (2006): Research and Development Opinions, Federal
Road Maintenance Agency; January/Febuary 2006 Pg. 13-16
Kadiyali L.R.(2008): Traffic Engineering and Transport Planning First
Edition Khama Publishers Delhi
Khisty C.J. and Lall B.K.(2008): Transportation Engineering Third
Edition,Prentice – Hall Inc, Delhi
Nellthorp, J., Mackie, P.J. and Bristow, A.L. (1998) Measurement and
Valuation of the Impacts of Transport Initiatives, Deliverable D9,
EUNET Project, EI Fourth Framework RTD Programme. ITS,
University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
Ross, A. S. Lundebye and R. Barrett (1991) Road Safety Awareness and
Commiment in Developing Countries. Infrastructure Note RD-6,
World Bank, Washington DC, USA.
United State Department of Transportation (2003): World Traffic injury
World Bank (2004) Implementing the Recommendations of The World
Report on Traffic Injury Prevention, Transport Note No. TRN-1,

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 Accident Prediction Models for Akure-Ondo Carriageway…Using Multiple Linear Regression

Table 1: Aggregate Data on Road Traffic Accident in Nigeria (1960 - 2005)

Fatal/
Death/1 Time RTA Death
Casua Tim Veh/100
Vehicle 0X8 Death/A Casua Case /1000
Cases National Total ACC/1 lity e/Ki 0 Popu
Person Person License POP CCT lity (MIN)Deat (Traff
Year Reporte Population Casuali 000 (Seve lled (Motoriz
Killed Injured d(2.2% (Person Fatality ACC h/1000 ic
d (2.45%) ty Veh rity (MI ation
) al Index T (Traffic Surve
Index N) Level)
Safety) Safety) y)
)

1960 14130 1083 10216 30817891 11299 84025 168 4 0.08 0.8 0.1 485 37.2 129 3

1961 15963 1313 10614 31890354 11927 101774 157 4 0.08 0.75 0.11 400 33 129 3

1962 16317 1578 10341 33000138 11919 119523 137 5 0.1 0.73 0.13 333 32.2 132 4

1963 19835 1532 7771 34148543 9303 137272 145 5 0.08 0.47 0.16 343 27 112 4

1964 15927 1769 12581 35336912 14350 155021 103 5 0.11 0.9 0.12 297 33 114 4

1965 16904 1918 12024 36566656 13942 172770 98 5 0.11 0.82 0.14 274 31.1 111 5

1966 14000 2000 13000 37839156 15000 190519 74 5 0.14 1.07 0.13 263 38 105 5

1967 13000 2400 1000 39155958 12400 208268 64 6 0.18 0.95 0.19 219 40.4 115 5

1968 12163 2808 9474 40518586 12282 226017 54 7 0.23 1.01 0.23 187 43.2 124 6

1969 12998 2347 8804 41928633 11150 243766 53 6 0.18 0.86 0.21 224 40.4 96 6

1970 16666 2893 13154 43387749 16047 261515 64 7 0.17 0.96 0.18 182 32 111 6

1971 17745 3206 14592 44897643 17798 279264 64 7 0.18 1 0.18 164 30 115 6

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1972 23287 3921 16161 46460081 20082 297013 78 8 0.17 0.86 0.2 134 23 132 6

1973 24844 4637 18154 48076891 22691 314764 79 10 0.18 0.91 0.2 116 21.2 147 7

1974 28893 4992 18660 49749967 23652 332511 87 10 0.17 0.82 0.21 105 18.2 150 7

1975 32651 5552 20132 51481266 25684 350260 93 11 0.17 0.79 0.22 94.7 16.1 158 7

1976 40881 6761 28155 53272815 34916 368009 111 13 0.17 0.85 0.19 78 13 184 7

1977 35351 8000 30032 55126708 38023 385768 92 15 0.23 1.08 0.21 66 15 207 7

1978 36111 9252 28854 57145118 38106 403507 90 16 0.26 1.06 0.24 57 15 229 7

1979 29271 8022 21203 59131288 29225 421256 70 14 0.27 1 0.27 66 18 190 7

1980 32138 8736 25401 61084542 34220 439005 73 14 0.27 1.06 0.26 60.2 16.4 119 7

1981 33777 10202 26337 63210285 36539 456756 74 16 0.3 1.08 0.28 52 16 223 7

1982 37094 11382 28539 65410002 39921 474503 78 17 0.31 1.08 0.28 46.2 14.2 240 7

1983 32109 10462 26866 67686271 32328 492252 65 16 0.33 1.16 0.28 50.2 16.4 213 7

1984 28892 8830 23861 70041753 32691 510001 57 13 0.31 1.13 0.27 60 18.2 173 7

1985 28976 9221 23853 72479206 33074 527750 55 13 0.32 1.13 0.28 57 18.1 175 7

1986 25188 8154 22176 75001482 30330 545499 46 11 0.32 1.2 0.27 67 20.9 150 7

1987 26215 7912 22747 77611534 30659 563248 47 11 0.3 1.17 0.26 66.4 20.1 141 7

1988 25792 9077 24413 80312415 33490 580997 44 11 0.35 1.3 0.27 58 22.4 156 7

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 Accident Prediction Models for Akure-Ondo Carriageway…Using Multiple Linear Regression

1989 23987 8714 23687 83107287 32401 598946 40 11 0.36 1.35 0.27 60.3 22 141 7

1990 21721 7755 23490 85999420 31204 616493 35 9 0.36 1.45 0.25 68 24.4 126 7

1991 22498 7523 25627 88992200 33150 634244 36 9 0.36 1.6 0.23 70 23.4 119 7

1992 22909 8701 25154 92088111 33855 615993 37 10 0.39 1.53 0.26 60.4 23 134 7

1993 21412 6342 22882 95293857 29224 669742 32 7 0.31 1.45 0.22 83 25 95 7

1994 18218 5407 17890 98613440 23297 687491 27 6 0.3 1.28 0.23 97.2 29 79 7

1995 17000 6647 14431 102050991 21078 705240 24 7 0.3931 1.24 0.32 79.1 31 94 7

1996 16973 6364 15290 105564166 21654 722989 23 6 0.38 1.29 0.29 83 31.3 88 7

1997 9034 6104 15464 109200353 21568 740738 12 6 0.37 1.29 0.28 145 58 82 7

1998 16046 6538 17341 112963946 23879 758487 21 6 0.41 1.49 0.27 80 33 86 7

1999 12424 5370 17585 116859503 22955 776236 16 5 0.43 1.86 0.41 97 42 69 7

2000 12705 6521 20671 120891747 27198 793985 16 5 0.51 2.14 0.24 81 41 82 7

2001 13801 8109 22202 124938081 31265 811734 17 7 0.59 2.27 0.44 66 38 100 7

2002 14544 7407 22112 129285926 29515 829443 18 6 0.51 2.03 0.25 71 36 89 6.4

2003 14363 6452 18116 133785076 24568 847432 17 4.8 0.5 1.71 0.26 82 37 76 6

2004 14279 5351 16897 138400661 11803 865871 17 4.7 0.45 0.82 0.55 82 37 76 6

2005 8962 4519 15779

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Source: FRSC 2005

Table 2: Accident Classification

Casualty Severities Accident Severities

Fatality Serious injury Slight injury

death within 30 casualties who require casualties whose injuries A ‘damage-only’ accident is one in
days for causes hospital treatment and do not require hospital which there are no casualties. A ‘fatal’
arising out of the have lasting injuries, treatment or, if they do, accident is one in which there is at least
accident but who do not die the effects of the injuries one fatality. A ‘serious’ accident is one
within the recording quickly subside. in which there is at least one serious
period for a fatality; casualty but no fatalities. A ‘slight’
accident is one in which there is at least
one slight casualty but no serious
injuries and no fatalities
Source: Nellthorp et al (1998)

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 Accident Prediction Models for Akure-Ondo Carriageway…Using Multiple Linear Regression

Table 3: Accident Data for Akure – Ondo Carriageway from 2002 – 2007
DATE VEHICLE NO OF CAUSES PEOPLE NUMBER NUMBER TYPE
INVOLVED VEHICLE INVOLVED INJURED KILLED
04/01/02 Accord/Starlet 2 OVT 2 - - Minor
06/01/02 Benz, PGT 3 Overspeeding 4 3 - Serious
504/Bus
24/01/02 Iveco 1 DGD 3 - - Minor
30/01/02 PGT 305 1 Drink Driving 4 1 - Serious
30/01/02 Benz/Mazda 3 Tyre burst 3 1 - Serious
07/02/02 Man Diesel 1 Tyre burst 30 14 7 Fatal
Truck
08/02/02 TYT Hiace/Narz 2 Overtaking & 24 23 1 Fatal
Overspeeding
23/02/02 Volkswagen 1 DGD 2 2 - Serious
24/03/02 Bus/Lorry 2 DGD 11 4 7 Fatal
08/04/02 Trailer/TYT 2 DGD 6 2 4 Fatal
18/04/02 Benz 911 Truck 1 Tyre Burst 5 5 - Serious
26/04/02 Volks/Golf 2 Overtaking 4 3 1 Fatal
27/04/02 Truck/Trailer 2 DGD 7 - - Minor
26/05/02 TYT Taxi 3 DGD 5 1 - Serious
30/05/02 Cars 2 OVT 5 4 - Serious
02/06/02 TYT Liteace 3 DGD 4 3 - Serious
20/06/02 TYT Hiace 1 OVT 1 1 - Serious
04/07/02 Taxi & Jeep 2 DGD 5 2 - Serious
12/07/02 Opel 1 OVT 1 - - Minor
12/07/02 Luxurious Bus 1 DGD 55 - - Minor
26/08/02 Man Diesel 1 Dangerous 8 5 3 Fatal

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Overtaking
28/08/02 Liteace (2) & 3 Dangerous 2 1 - Serious
Truck Overtaking
21/11/02 TYT/TYT 2 DGD/OVT 2 2 - Serious
11/10/02 TYT/Pick-up 2 DGD 2 - - Minor
26/10/02 Benz 190/TYT 2 DGD 1 - 1 Fatal
Starlet
03/11/02 TYT/Bus/Trailer/ 6 OVT/DGD/DOV 12 10 2 Fatal
Hiace/Benz
190/TYT Starlet
13/11/02 TYT (2) /Sunny 3 OVT 4 - - Minor
11/11/02 Accord/Bus 2 Mechanical fault 24 12 11 Fatal
24/12/02 911/JJ Ducto 2 Tyre Burst 2 - - Minor
02/01/03 Benz 1 Tyre Burst 12 11 - Serious
31/01/03 Benz/Bedford 2 DGD 2 - - Minor
24/02/03 Pick-up 2 Overspeeding 2 - 1 Fatal
25/02//03 TYT 2 OVT/DGD 4 - 1 Fatal
28/02/03 Mazda/Truck 2 OVT 22 7 3 Fatal
24/03/03 Pick-up/Benz 2 OVT 3 - - Minor
19/04/03 Benz/Mazda 2 Loss of control 15 12 3 Fatal
27/05/03 Mazda 1 DOV 30 5 - Serious
26/06/03 TYT Hiace 1 Mechanical fault 30 23 7 Fatal
13/07/03 TYT Hiace 1 Loss of control 14 13 1 Fatal
02/11/03 TYT/Liteace/Bus 3 Road Defect 6 5 - Serious
28/01/04 Nissan 1 Tyre removed 3 2 1 Fatal
29/02/04 Bedford/Daff 2 DGD 4 2 2 Fatal
16/03/04 Balsam/TYT 2 DGD/Overspeeding 25 7 - Serious

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26/05/04 TYT 2 DGD 2 - - Minor

Camry/Benz
07/06/04 Lux Bus/Truck 2 Mechanical failure 4 1 1 Fatal
11/08/04 Trailer/TYT 2 DOV 2 1 - Serious
13/08/04 Trailer 1 Loss of control 3 3 - Serious
23/10/04 TYT 1 DOV 5 5 - Serious
30/12/04 Mercedes Benz 1 Mechanical failure 1 1 - Serious
08/01/05 Benz 911/Mazda 2 OVT 5 4 1 Fatal
22/02/05 Bus/Truck 2 DGD 30 9 2 Fatal
14/03/05 Soy 1 Tyre Burst 9 5 - Serious
05/05/05 TYT/Man Diesel 2 Loss of control 8 5 3 Fatal
18/05/05 Bedford 1 Dangerous Driving 3 1 - Serious
11/06/05 Mac 1 Loss of control 3 1 - Serious
18/07/05 TYT Hiace (2) / 3 OVT/DGD 31 5 2 Fatal
PGT 404
07/08/05 Daf/Benz 2 DOV 6 4 - Serious
16/08/05 Benz/TYT 2 DGD/OVT 3 - - Minor
19/09/05 PGT 3 OVT 3 2 - Serious
406/Nissan/TYT
04/10/05 Mac 1 Loss of control 3 1 - Serious
26/12/05 TYT/Mercedes 2 Road Defect 9 6 - Serious
Benz
07/01/06 TYT Bus/Passat 2 DGD 25 22 1 Fatal
21/01/06 Passat Wagon 2 DGD 4 2 2 Fatal
14/02/06 PGT Soy/Tipper 2 DOVT 4 1 - Serious
12/03/06 Truck 1 Dangerous driving 3 - - Minor
15/03/06 Pick-up/Car 2 DGD 2 - - Minor

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17/04/06 2 5 Tyre Burst 8 7 1 Fatal

TYT/Daf/Nissan/
Bike
10/05/06 TYT Celica 1 DOV 3 1 - Serious
17/05/06 Pick-up/Tipper 2 OVT 4 - - Minor
03/06/06 Honda Accord 1 Drink driving 1 - - Minor
19/06/06 TYt 1 DOV 5 - - Minor
18/07/06 911/Nissan 2 DGD 8 3 - Serious
19/08/06 TYT 2 DOV/Tyre Burst 5 5 - Serious
07/09/06 Daf Truck 2 DOV 4 - 4 Fatal
07/09/06 TYT/Wagon 2 DOV 9 4 - Serious
26/09/06 Nissan/Honda 2 DGD 5 - 5 Fatal
21/10/06 Mazda/Bus 2 DOV 18 12 - Serious
21/12/06 TYT Hiace/TYT 2 DOV 21 3 17 Fatal
Liteace
19/02/07 PGT/J5/Nissan 3 DOV 18 13 4 Fatal
Bus
13/03/07 TYT 1 DOV 3 - 1 Fatal
14/04/07 PGT 504/911 2 DGD 2 1 - Serious
29/06/07 Mazda 2 DOV 24 18 1 Fatal
12/07/07 TYT Hiace 1 OVT 18 5 6 Fatal
10/09/07 TYT 2 DGD 7 - - Minor
21/11/07 Benz/Man Diesel 2 DGD 5 5 - Serious
07/12/07 Mazda 626/TYT 2 DGD 4 4 - Serious
11/12/07 Gallant/Benz 911 2 OVT 5 3 1 Fatal
Source: FRSC, Akure Sector Note: OVT: Overtaking; DOV: Dangerous Overtaking; DGD: Dangerous
Driving

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Accident Prediction Models for Akure-Ondo Carriageway…Using Multiple Linear Regression

Table 4: Summary of Spot Speed Data at Km 10 along Akure –

Ondo Carriageway
Speed Class km/hr Number of Mean Cum Freq. Percentile
vehicles Speed
km/hr
30 – 39 3 34.5 3
40 – 49 7 44.5 10
50 – 59 7 54.5 17 15th (53.5)
60 – 69 7 64.5 24
70 – 79 8 74.5 32
80 – 89 12 84.5 44
90 – 99 22 94.5 66
100 – 109 14 104.5 80
110 – 119 9 114.5 89 85th (109.5)
120 – 129 7 124.5 96
130 – 139 4 134.5 100

Table 5: Summary of Spot Speed Data at Km 28 along Akure –

Ondo Carriageway
Speed Class Number of Mean Speed Cum Percentile
km/hr vehicles km/hr Freq.
30 – 39 3 34.5 3
40 – 49 6 44.5 9
50 – 59 13 54.5 22 15th (49.5)
60 – 69 10 64.5 32
70 – 79 11 74.5 43
80 – 89 9 84.5 52
90 – 99 12 94.5 64
100 – 109 12 104.5 76
110 – 119 12 114.5 88 85th (112.0)
120 – 129 6 124.5 94
130 – 139 3 134.5 97
140 – 149 1 144.5 98
150 – 159 2 154.4 100

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 African Research Review Vol. 4(2) April, 2010. Pp. 30-49

Figure 1: Pictorial representation of Cases of Accident in Nigeria from 1960-2005

45000
No of Cases Reported, Person Killed and

Cases
40000
Reported
35000 Person
30000 Killed
Person Injured

25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Year

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Accident Prediction Models for Akure-Ondo Carriageway…Using Multiple Linear Regression

Figure 2.0: Pictorial Representation of the Accident Classification from 2002

– 2007

15
Minor, Serious and
Fatal accidenst

10
5 Minor
No of

0 Serious
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Fatal

Year

Figure 3.0: Percentage of Accident severity

38% Fatal
62% Non - Fatal

Figure 4.0: Accident frequency Distribution by Vehicle Involvement

1%
Buses
22%
48% Car
Lorries/Truck
29%
Bike

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 African Research Review Vol. 4(2) April, 2010. Pp. 30-49

Figure 5.0: Cumulative Frequency Curve of Spot Speed at Km 10

120
Cummulative Ferquency

100
80
60
40
20
0 Cum Freq.
30 – 39
40 – 49
50 – 59
60 – 69
70 – 79
80 – 89
90 – 99
100 – 109
110 – 119
120 – 129
130 – 139
Speed Class km/hr

Figure6.0: Cumulative Frequency Curve of Spot Speed at Km 28

120
Cummulative ferquency

100
80
60
40
20 Cum Freq.
0
30 – 50 – 70 – 90 – 110 – 130 – 150 –
39 59 79 99 119 139 159
Speed Class km/hr

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