13th May, 2024

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.
 Morning Market Outlook
• Expect market to open on a flat note in spite of rally in the global markets. Rate cut hope by US Fed and
ahead of US Inflation data to be release this week lifted US market nearly 2-month high and European
market ended record high on Friday.
• Asian markets are witnessing mixed bag. US market rally in the eighth straight sessions and gained of
0.3% on Friday. Investor hopes of an easing in monetary policy after reported consumer sentiment fell to
6-month low despite hawkish commentary by the US Fed officials.
• Gift Nifty is down 50 points or 0.2%. Traders should be prepared for higher intra-day volatility in the next
3 weeks, and the market may not maintain the global market trend ahead of the election.

Actionable Idea for the Day Index Levels :

Nifty Cash R1 R2 S1 S2
Technical Pick: 22,055 22,222 22,350 21,850 21,700
Bharti Airtel : Buy BankNifty Cash R1 R2 S1 S2
47,421 47,777 48,000 47,000 46,750
(CMP 1301 SL 1270 TP 1360)
2-3 Days) Top 5 Investment Idea
Stock Name Rating CMP TP Upside
Fundamental Pick: ICICI Lombard Buy 1,662 2100 26%
JSW Infra Buy 246 300 22%
ABB : Buy Bharti Airtel Buy 1,303 1570 21%
(CMP : 7178, TP : 8500) Kirloskar Oil Buy 1,044 1220 17%
(Duration 1 Year) SBI Buy 818 925 13%
 Fundamental Outlook

Global Market Summary:

• US market on Friday rose for the eighth straight session amid increased hopes of an easing in monetary
policy after consumer sentiment fell to a 6-month low. S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3%
each. Dow Futures is trading -37 points lower.
• European indices gained between 0.4%-0.6%. Asian markets today, are trading mixed.
• Global Cues: Mixed

Indian Market Summary:

• Nifty bounced on the last day of the week to close with gains of 98 points (+0.4%) at 22,055.
• FIIs: -Rs2118 crore DIIs: +Rs2710 crore.
• Currently GIFT Nifty is trading -35 points lower.
• Domestic Cues: Flat

News and Impact :

JK Cement: The company posted 101% YoY growth in consolidated net profit in Q4FY24. Its revenue
surged over 11% during the same period. EBITDA/t was up 44% YoY. Impact: Positive
BEML: BEML's Q4 earnings showcased strong growth, with net profit soaring 63% YoY. Revenue also
witnessed a healthy uptick of 9.1%. Ebitda surged 29%, with an improvement in margin to 24.5%.
Impact: Positive
 Fundamental Actionable Idea
ABB: (CMP INR7178, TP INR8500, 18% Upside, Buy)
• ABB reported revenue growth of 28% in 1QCY24, driven by growth in Electrification (+30% YoY), Process
Automation, (+73% YoY), and Robotics & Motion (+8% YoY).
• EBITDA Margin came in all time high at 18.3% (+650bp YoY), benefiting from its pricing advantage, operating
leverage gain, improving product mix toward higher-margin segments, and a wide product portfolio.
• This led to PAT growth of 87% YoY at ₹4.6b. Order inflow at ₹36.1b jumped 15% YoY, while the order book
stood at ₹89.3b (+25% YoY).
• We expect a PAT CAGR of 30% over CY23-26.
View: Buy

FIVE-STAR BUSINESS FINANCE | INITIATING COVERAGE: Enabling small; Growing big!

(CMP INR729, TP INR950, 30% Upside, Buy)
• FIVESTAR provides small business loans (SBL) predominantly to micro-entrepreneurs, self-employed
individuals, or informal salaried individuals for working capital, asset creation, or personal expense purposes.
• These loans are secured against collateral, typically a self-occupied residential property. The company has
delivered an AUM CAGR of ~25% over FY20-FY24.
• A deep understanding of customer behavior, along with regional dynamics in semi-urban and fast-growing
rural areas, positions FIVESTAR well to remain dominant in this product segment.
• We estimate a PAT CAGR of ~23% over FY24-FY26 for a RoA/RoE of 7.2%/18.5% in FY26.
• We initiate coverage on the stock with a BUY rating and a TP of INR950
View: Buy
 Nifty Technical Outlook
NIFTY (CMP : 22055) Nifty immediate support at 21850 then 21700 zones while resistance at 22222 then
22350 zones. Now it has to hold above 22000 zones for a bounce towards 22222 then 22350 zones
whereas supports are placed at 21850 then 21700 zones.
 Bank Nifty Technical Outlook

BANK NIFTY (CMP : 47421) Bank Nifty support at 47000 then 46750 zones while resistance at 47777 then
48000 zones. Now till it holds below 47777 zones further weakness could be seen towards 47000 then
46750 zones while on the upside hurdle is seen at 47777 then 48000 levels.
 Technical Trading Idea

Bharti Airtel : Buy CMP : 1301 Target : 1360 SL : 1270 Duration : 2-3 Days
• Bharti Airtel is in overall uptrend and forming higher lows on monthly scale from past eight months. On
daily scale the stock is on the verge of giving range breakout after five sessions and formed a strong
bullish candle in spite of market weakness.
• It is trading above its short term moving averages and momentum indicator Relative Strength Index
(RSI) is also on the verge of Bullish crossover which indicates momentum to pick up in coming sessions.
 Derivative Outlook

• Nifty May future closed at 22,140.60 with a premium of 85.40 point v/s 118.30 point premium in the
last session.
• Nifty futures OI decreased by 1.15% to 1.49 Cr and Bank Nifty futures OI increased by 0.28% to 27.59
Lakhs.
• Nifty Put/Call Ratio (OI) increased from 0.90 to 0.91 level.
• India VIX was up by 1.48% from 18.20 to 18.47 levels. Volatility spiked above 19 zones at its sixteen
months high and paved a smooth way for the bears to create swings in the market.
• On weekly front, Maximum Call OI is at 22500 then 22400 strike while Maximum Put OI is at 22000
then 21600 strike. Call writing is seen at 22500 then 22100 strike while Put writing is seen at 22000
then 21700 strike. Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 21500 to 22500 zones
while an immediate range between 21800 to 22300 levels.
 Derivative Outlook

Nifty OI 1-Day change in Nifty OI

• Option Buying: Wait for Option buying in Nifty and need to watch 22050 for any directional set up.
Buy Weekly Bank Nifty 47200 Put till it holds below 47777 zones.
• Option Strategy: Weekly Nifty Bear Put Ladder Spread (Buy 22050 PE, Sell 21850 PE and 21700 PE) at
net premium cost of 45-50 points. Weekly Bank Nifty Bear Put Spread (Buy 47400 PE and Sell 47000
PE) at net premium cost of 130-150 points.
• Option Writing: Sell Weekly Nifty 21500 PE and Sell 22550 CE at inflow of 24-25 points with strict
double SL. Sell Weekly Bank Nifty 46100 PE and Sell 48700 CE at inflow of 50-60 points with strict
stop loss due to higher volatility
Siddhartha Khemka Chandan Taparia, CMT, CFTe
Head - Retail Research Derivatives & Technical Analyst
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