爱思唯尔新书选题申请表

New Book Proposal Form

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Working title 选题名称

Titles and subtitles should be focused to Uncertainty Analysis of Nuclear Reactor Physics Calculation
include key terms that readers would use if
searching for information on this topic.

Author information 作者信息 Chen Hao: Harbin Engineering University, Professor, secretary general of Chinese
National Nuclear Education Society Youth Work Committee, member of Chinese
Please list all authors or editors, including
Nuclear Society Youth Work Committee, alternate member of China Nuclear Energy
contact details, qualifications and experience,
Association Science and Technology Award Jury, vice chairman of China Energy
and outline why you are you the right
Research Society Nuclear Energy Professional Committee, Director of Chinese
individual or team to prepare this book.
Nuclear Physics Society the 14th Council, Chief Scientist of International Atomic
请列出主要作者/编者，包括作者单位、职称、 Energy Agency Coordinated Research Program (IAEA-CRP) of High Temperature Gas-
社会兼职、联系方式、研究背景与经历，以及为 cooled Reactor (HTGR) Uncertainty Analysis, youth editorial board member of
什么您是本书最佳的作者或作者团队。
Atomic Energy Science and Technology, youth editorial board member of Nuclear
Techniques, youth editorial member of Journal of Harbin Engineering University,
Editor of special issue “Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis of Modern Marine Power
and Energy Systems” in Ocean Engineering. (+86)15776869767, Email:. Professor
Chen Hao , research interests involve high-fidelity neutronics computation, nuclear
reactor uncertainty analysis.
Fu Li: Tsinghua University, Professor, member of editorial advisory board in Nuclear
Engineering and Design, Chinese representative in GIF VHTR SSC , editorial member
of Atomic Energy Science and Technology, deputy director of Beijing Nuclear Society,
(+86)13911707720, Member of Nuclear Energy Standards Technical Council. research
interests involve computational reactor physics, uncertainty analysis, coupling
algorithm in nuclear reactor system and overall design of nuclear power plant.
The writers of this book have worked in the uncertainty analysis of nuclear reactor
physics community for almost ten years. The writers have been involved in many
uncertainty analysis activities including IAEA coordinated research program with
focus on the high temperature gas-cooled reactor. We have accumulated extensive
knowledge and experience in the uncertainty analysis of nuclear reactor physics
calculation.
Background and purpose Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are crucial in nuclear engineering community. The
research activities in this filed set solid foundation for ensuring the safety and
Please 'set the scene'. What is your purpose in
reliability of nuclear reactor and other nuclear applications. Also, Best Estimate Plus
writing this book? Why is now the right time
Uncertainty (BEPU) is a flourishing topic in current nuclear community and it has been
to publish a new edition? What has changes in
widely adopted in nuclear reactor licensing process. During many years development,
the market, or the technology/subject?
it is the time to summarize the advances in this community. On this regard, we write
Include any background that helps to explain
this book “Uncertainty Analysis of Nuclear Reactor Physics Calculation” to provide a
why there is a need for a new resource in this
comprehensive review in nuclear reactor physics uncertainty analysis method and
area.
application. Our book is intended to provide our readers the overview of different
选题背景与目的 uncertainty analysis domains that are currently in use in nuclear engineering domain,
请介绍一下本书的写作背景，您写作本书的主要 and provides step-by-step procedures to help readers to be familiar with such
目的是什么？为什么现在是出版本书的好时机？ techniques as well as advanced topics. We believe our book is valuable handbook for
市场发生了哪些变化，学术、技术上取得了哪些 readers who are interested in uncertainty analysis methodologies as well as their
进展？还可包括其他有助于说明本书出版必要性 application nuclear reactor physics computation.
的信息:。

Book Description 内容简介 This book aims at providing a general and systematic roadmap on uncertainty
analysis of nuclear reactor physics computation. From theoretical basis to
Please outline the title, the key selling points
implementation practices, this book covers the principles and methods in quantifying
from the end user’s perspective.
uncertainties with specific application in nuclear reactor physics computation. More
请介绍本书的主要内容，描述本书的主要卖 advanced uncertainty quantification methods are also introduced in detail in this
点，能为读者提供什么样的信息。 book.

Target audience 主要读者对象

Please describe your intended audience in as
much detail as possible, e.g. industry sector,
job role, level, subject specialism.
Engineers, technicians, researchers working in nuclear engineering community.
If the book could be used for a course please
provide details, including program and level.
请尽量详细地描述本书的主要读者对象。
如果本书可以用作教材，请提供相关信息。

Key Features 主要特点 1. Generic uncertainty framework is highlighted in this book which is useful for
readers to have a general view of what is uncertainty analysis;
With reference to the target audience(s) listed
2. Two research branches of uncertainty analysis in nuclear engineering community
above, please give us 3 -5 features and content
are introduced systematically in this book. This serves as guidelines for interested
in your book that will be most valuable to the
readers working in nuclear engineering community to be familiar with the current
reader.
research status in the uncertainty analysis topic.
请列举 3-5 条本书的主要特点，或者对读者来说
最有价值的内容。 3. Many proof-of-principle examples are provided in this book. These proof-of-
principle examples are valuable for readers to practice the theories provided in this
book. Importantly, many of these examples are simple in form and in solutions, which
encouraging readers to trial them by hands with no need of computers.
4. This book is written on the basis of many engineering practices and it focus not only
on theoretical description but also the actual practices and applications in actual
engineering scenarios.

Competition 相关图书 1. Ralph C. Smith. Uncertainty Quantification Theory, Implementation, and

Applications. ISBN: 978-1-61197-321-1. SIAM: Society for Industrial and Applied
Please list the books, websites or other
Mathematics. 2013. 101.00 $
information sources that would compete most
Comments: This book is valuable in describing the general uncertainty analysis
closely with your book and briefly describe
method with emphasize in different engineering field. It delivers topics on
how they compare. Why would readers uncertainty analysis method from different methodologies, e.g. frequentist
choose your book over the competition? techniques, Bayesian techniques, Sampling methods, perturbation methods,
请列举 3-5 本相关的图书、网站或其他相关资源 stochastic spectral methods, model error quantification, surrogate modelling-
（图书信息包括作者，书名，ISBN，出版社，出 based methods. In sensitivity analysis, this book introduces this topic from the
版时间，定价等），并进行简单评价。为什么读 perspective of local and global sensitivity analysis. Overall, this book covers a
者会选择您所写的书？ comprehensive topic on uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods which are
generic among different engineering disciplines.
2. Thomas J. Santner, Brian J. Williams, William I. Notz. The Design and Analysis of
Computer Experiments, Second Edition. ISBN: 978-1-4939-8845-7. Springer.
2018. 109.93 $.
Comments: this book focus on the topics regarding to sampling-based
uncertainty analysis method. Specifically, several critical issues related to design
of experiments and sampling techniques are highlighted in this book. Different
with the book 1 in this list, this book addresses the essentials in Bayesian based
uncertainty analysis and calibration techniques.
3. David J. Sheskin. Handbook of Parametric and Nonparametric Statistical
Procedures. ISBN: 978-1-4398-5801-1 (Hardbook).Taylor & Francis. 2011.228.64$.
Comments: this book is a handbook for conducting statistical analysis for
engineers across scientific domain. It highlights the procedures in parametric and
nonparametric statistical analysis which can be regarded as sampling method-
oriented uncertainty analysis.

To sum up, these three competition books discuss the uncertainty analysis method in
general and provides comprehensive illustrations in conducting such analysis. Our
proposed book “Uncertainty Analysis of Nuclear Reactor Physics Calculation”,
however, discusses mainly the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis research with focus
on their application in nuclear reactor physics calculation community. Therefore, we
believe our book is a valuable contribution to nuclear engineering community as, to
our best knowledge, there is no such book appeared in the current market.

Table of contents 图书目录 Chapter 1 Uncertainty analysis needs

1.1 Modelling and simulation
Please provide here or attach separately the
planned contents of your book, including 1.1.1 Overview
chapter titles and the scope/initial content 1.1.2 Objectives of modelling and simulation
plan for each chapter. 1.2 Uncertainty and error
请提供本书的目录（包括二级目录），如无二级 1.2.1 Uncertainty and error in data
目录可提供每个章节的内容简介。如有更详细目
录可另附文件。 1.2.2 Confidence and confidence interval
1.3 Uncertainty and error in modelling and simulation
1.3.1 Aleatory uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty and error
1.3.2 Identification and propagation of uncertainty and error
1.4 Applications in reactor neutronics transport problem
1.4.1 Conceptual modelling of physical system
1.4.2 Mathematical modelling of conceptual model
1.4.3 Discretization and algorithm selection of mathematical modelling
1.4.4 Evaluation and analysis of simulation and numerical solution
1.5 Necessity of uncertainty analysis
1.5.1 Necessity of uncertainty analysis in modelling and simulation
1.5.2 Necessity of nuclear reactor computational uncertainty analysis
1.6 Best Estimation Plus Uncertainty(BEPU)
References

Chapter 2 Overview of reactor computational uncertainty analysis

2.1 History review
2.2 Highlighted international research program
2.2.1 BEPU and S/U research program in OECD
2.2.2 Light water reactor computational uncertainty research in OECD
2.2.3 High temperature gas-cooled reactor computational uncertainty coordinated
research in IAEA
2.2.4 Sodium-cooled fast reactor computation uncertainty research in OECD
2.2.5 Advanced nuclear reactor system uncertainty analysis and target accuracy
assessment research program
2.3 Reactor computational analysis activity and application
2.3.1 Overview in nuclear reactor physics computational uncertainty analysis
2.3.2 Application of nuclear reactor physics computational uncertainty analysis
References

Chapter 3 Perturbation theory-based uncertainty analysis

3.1 Overview of computational uncertainty analysis
3.1.1 Uncertainty propagation of input parameter
3.1.2 Uncertainty extrapolation of output parameter
3.2 Perturbation theory-based uncertainty analysis method
3.2.1 Adjoint operator and adjoint system
3.2.2 Linear perturbation theory and sensitivity coefficient
3.2.3 Reactor multiplication sensitivity calculation with perturbation theory
3.2.4 Reactor key parameter sensitivity calculation with generalized perturbation
theory
3.2.5 Time-dependent reactor key parameter sensitivity calculation with
perturbation theory
3.2.6 Uncertainty analysis theory
References

Chapter 4 Stochastic sampling-based uncertainty analysis

4.1 Procedures of stochastic sampling-based uncertainty analysis
4.2 Preliminaries in statistics
4.2.1 Probability density and distribution function
4.2.2 Random variable moments
4.2.3 Statistics
4.3 Basic sampling method
4.3.1 Simple random sampling
4.3.2 Stratified sampling
4.3.3 Latin hypercube sampling
4.4 Stochastic sampling model
4.4.1 Sampling from multivariate normal distribution
4.4.2 Sampling from multivariate uniform distribution
4.5 Efficient sampling method
4.5.1 Efficient sampling with Cholesky decomposition
4.5.2 Efficient sampling with SVD decomposition
4.5.3 High-dimensional sampling with PCA
4.6 Stochastic sampling-based uncertainty analysis theory
4.6.1 K-S test
4.6.2 Interval estimation of population parameter
4.6.3 Uncertainty of sample statistics
4.6.4 Boostrap-based uncertainty quantification of sample statistics
4.7 Stochastic sampling-based sensitivity analysis theory
4.7.1 Correlation analysis
4.7.2 Regression analysis
4.8 CUSA code
4.8.1 Overview
4.8.2 CUSA code description
References

Chapter 5 Nuclear cross section covariance matrix

5.1 Nuclear data covariance matrix
5.1.1 Experimental measurement of microscopic nuclear data
5.1.2 Covariance matrix of experimental data
5.1.3 Evaluated nuclear data library
5.1.4 Evaluation of nuclear data covariance
5.1.5 Multigroup covariance matrix
5.2 Introduction of multigroup nuclear cross section covariance data library
5.2.1 Introduction of covariance data library in SCALE
5.2.2 SCALE 44-group structured nuclear cross section covariance data library
5.2.3 SCALE 56-group structured nuclear cross section covariance data library
5.2.4 Comparison between SCALE 44-group and 56-group covariance data library
5.2.5 Brief introduction of other multigroup nuclear cross section covariance data
library
5.3 Generation of multigroup nuclear cross section covariance matrix
5.3.1 Generation of multigroup nuclear cross section covariance with NJOY
5.3.2 Generation of multigroup nuclear cross section covariance with group
structure conversion
5.3.3 Brief introduction of other nuclear cross section covariance generation
program
References

Chapter 6 Nuclear cross section uncertainty propagation and quantification in

resonance calculation
6.1 Multigroup nuclear cross section self-consistent perturbation
6.2 Uncertainty analysis method of effective resonance nuclear cross section
6.2.1 Stochastic sampling-based uncertainty analysis of effective resonance
nuclear cross section
6.2.2 Direct perturbation-based uncertainty analysis of effective resonance nuclear
cross section
6.2.3 Generalized perturbation theory-based uncertainty analysis of effective
resonance nuclear cross section
6.3 Implementation and application with different resonance calculation method
6.3.1 Implementation and application with subgroup resonance calculation
6.3.2 Implementation and application with Nordheim resonance calculation
6.3.3 Implementation and application with Bondarenko resonance calculation
References

Chapter 7 Nuclear cross section uncertainty propagation and quantification in neutron

transport calculation
7.1 Perturbation theory-based nuclear cross section uncertainty propagation and
quantification
7.1.1 Nuclear cross section uncertainty propagation method
7.1.2 Static adjoint neutron transport equation and solution
7.1.3 Effective multiplication factor sensitivity analysis
7.1.4 Homogenized few-group constant sensitivity analysis
7.2 Stochastic sampling-based nuclear cross section uncertainty propagation
and quantification
7.2.1 Uncertainty analysis procedures
7.2.2 Direct perturbation-based sensitivity analysis
7.3 Nuclear cross section uncertainty contribution analysis to reactor key
parameter
7.3.1 Nuclear data uncertainty contribution to effective multiplication factor in
difference reactor cores
7.3.2 Uncertainty contribution comparison from important nuclear cross section
7.3.3 Nuclear data uncertainty contribution to other reactor key parameters
References

Chapter 8 Nuclear cross section uncertainty propagation and quantification in burnup

calculation
8.1 Perturbation theory-based burnup uncertainty analysis
8.1.1 Definition of burnup sensitivity coefficient
8.1.2 Burnup sensitivity coefficient in critical problem with generalized
perturbation theory
8.1.3 Solution of burnup sensitivity coefficient
8.1.4 Burnup sensitivity coefficient in sub-critical problem with generalized
perturbation theory
8.2 Stochastic sampling-based burnup uncertainty analysis
8.2.1 Burnup uncertainty analysis procedures
8.2.2 Direct perturbation-based burnup uncertainty analysis
8.3 Application of burnup uncertainty analysis
 8.3.1 Nuclear data uncertainty contribution to effective multiplication factor in
burnup process
8.3.2 Atomic density uncertainty analysis
References

Chapter 9 Control rod worth uncertainty analysis

9.1 Control rod worth calculation
9.1.1 Twice criticalities calculation
9.1.2 High order perturbation theory-based calculation
9.2 Uncertainty analysis basis of control rod worth
9.3 Uncertainty analysis method of control rod worth
9.3.1 Direct variance propagation
9.3.2 Efficient sampling-based method with high order perturbation calculation
9.3.3 Efficient sampling-based method with twice criticalities calculation
9.4 Application of control rod worth uncertainty method in light water reactor
References

Chapter 10 Nuclear data adjustment and target accuracy assessment

10.1 Nuclear data adjustment method
10.1.1 Generalized Linear Least Squared Method (GLLSM)
10.1.2 Bayesian updating method
10.1.3 Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC)
10.2 Target accuracy assessment
10.2.1 Formulation of target accuracy assessment problem
10.2.2 Target accuracy assessment method
References

Specifications 选题详情 请提供下列信息 (Please consider and let us know)：

Please consider and let us know:  Words: 100000

 The length of book (in final  Pages: 290

printed pages) you anticipate producing.  Tables: 22
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illustrations and figures you anticipate  Color pictures /photos: 10
including, and whether any of these would
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 such as regulatory updates, technological
advances, etc.

Market Opportunities 市场机会

Please list any professional organisations,
societies, companies, or other groups which
might purchase your book in large quantities.
Do you have access to, or are you aware of, Tsinghua University, China
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请提供有可能购买您图书的专业组织、学会、公
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Promotional channels 营销渠道 Journal: Annals of Nuclear Energy (ANE), Nuclear Engineering and Design (NED),
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Conference: International Conference on Physics of Reactors (PHYSOR), The
details of any regular major conference that
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can be used to promote your book.
Nuclear Science and Engineering (M&C), The International Conference on Nuclear
请提供相关的期刊或重要会议。
Engineering (ICONE)

Chapter 1 Uncertainty analysis needs

Modelling and simulation technology have been widely used in nuclear development, marine systems,
aerospace and many other fields. While in the practice of modelling and simulation, there will be the inevitable
error and uncertainty which propagate with the process of modelling and simulation, resulting in certain
uncertainty in the final results of simulation. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the main uncertainty sources
and error in the process of modelling and simulation, clarify the propagation paths and methods of
uncertainty. Then, carry out uncertainty analysis to quantitatively evaluate the impact and contributions of all
uncertainty factors on the uncertainty of the simulation results.

The nuclear reactor system is a complex system of multi -physical, multi -module, and multi -scale
coupling. Modelling and simulation technology have always been an important research method for the
design, development, optimization and security analysis of the nuclear reactor system.

In every link of modelling and simulation of nuclear reactor, there will be uncertainty in its model,
calculation methods and input parameters, which leads to uncertainties in the calculation results. Based on the
development of modern modelling and simulation technology, uncertainty analysis is needed to propagate
and quantify the uncertainties in the process of modelling and simulation of nuclear reactor systems. More
importantly, the safety and economic analysis of the nuclear reactor system also requires that the uncertainty
of the critical parameters of the nuclear reactor must be identified and quantified. Therefore, uncertainty
analysis is very important to ensure the safety and improve the economy of nuclear reactor system.
Uncertainty analysis has become an important part of modern modelling and simulation of nuclear reactor.
1.1 Modelling and Simulation

1.1.1 Overview

Modeling and simulation technology is a comprehensive technology with versatility, interdisciplinary,

close combination with computer technology and wide application. It has been successfully applied to nuclear
development, marine systems, aerospace, earthquake engineering, materials, military, social, economic and
many other fields. Broadly speaking, simulation is to establish the conceptual model and mathematical model
of realistic and objective physical phenomena. That is to abstract, map, describe and reproduce realistic and
objective physical phenomena, and then convert the conceptual model into a computer simulation model by
applying computer technology, software technology and information technology to simulate realistic and
objective physical phenomena, as shown in Figure 1-1.

FIGURE 1-1: Basic elements and interrelationships of modeling and simulation

However, due to the uncertainty of system and environment (boundary conditions and initial conditions)
and human-system interaction, system simulation can not accurately predict physical phenomena. Therefore,
in the application of modeling and simulation technology, it is necessary to consider the uncertainty
characteristics of the system and environment, carry out uncertainty analysis, and quantify the contributions of
the uncertainty of the system and environment to the uncertainty of the predicted value of different systems.
Figure 1-1 reflects the relationship between the key technologies and the realistic objective physical
phenomena, it also includes the links of model identification, verification and confirmation, but does not
involve the establishment and solution of mathematical model, establishment and program implementation of
computer model, uncertainty assessment and other links in detail, which will be introduced in Section 1.1.2.

At present, with the rapid development of computer technology, especially the development of network
technology, modelling and simulation technology is developing rapidly towards digitalization, intelligence,
networking, virtualization and collaboration.

1.1.2 Objectives of modelling and simulation

 When it refers to modelling a simulation of a complex system, there are generally two steps being
involved. First, formulate the conceptual model regarding to the system of interest after careful observation.
Realize such conceptual model with a certain mathematical model and evaluate its fidelity, and solve this
mathematical model with one or more feasible numerical method. Second, implement the above numerical
procedures and develop a certain program. This program is developed with several sub-models and these sub-
models should be verified and validated (V&V). One of the objectives in V&V process is to identify and
characterize the uncertainty sources and their mutual relationship within the program. The above procedures
are shown in Figure 1.2 with main objectives being highlighted in the box. The solid line represents the
forward data flow among difference objectives, and the dashed line represents the feedback. Interested readers
could refer to [2] to find a thorough description about these objectives.

Conceptual modelling of physical system: First, specify the modelling and simulation (M&S) objectives
with a given physical system of interests along with accorded environment boundaries. Then, characterize the
coupling relationships among physical events of interests, event sequence and physical processes. This
characterization should be conducted on the basis of M&S objectives and sensitivity analysis. The essential
parts in conceptual modelling is to determine all the possible factors that relate to the M&S objectives, e.g. this
process is similar with that appeared in establishing the fault tree during PSA (Probabilistic Safety Analysis).
Although mathematical formulations are not considered in the conceptual modelling phase, the potential
assumptions related to the interested physical events and process should be identified. Also, all the uncertainty
sources should be ascertained during the conceptual modelling process, and they should be categorized into
aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. Likewise, the specific mathematical form and uncertainty propagation
representations are not considered in the conceptual modelling process.

FIGURE 1-2 Objectives and relationships in modelling and simulation

Mathematical modelling of conceptual models: According to the established conceptual models, detailed
and delicate mathematical models should be formulated. This formulation process includes specification of
governing equations that describes the physical process of interests (e.g. partial derivatives equations or
PDEs), boundary conditions and initial conditions. De facto, mathematical models of any complex physical
system or physical process are actually composed of many mathematical sub-models, and the complexity of
these models are related to the factors, e.g. complexity of interested physical event, number of physical events
and coupling intensity among these physical processes. Meanwhile, the explicit form of uncertainty sources
identified in the conceptual modelling process should be specified in this stage.

It is noted that the predictive performance of a mathematical model is not related to its complexity,
whereas the identified controllable factors and their effect to the predictions that are matter. With the rapid
development of computational sources, involving even more complex and detailed mathematical models in
M&S has become a trend. However, the readers should keep in mind that the legacy simple (but not simpler)
model are still in effect. It should keep in mind that any models are approximations to the reality, regardless of
its complexity.

Discretization and numerical method selection: This process refers to the conversion of a mathematical
model into its solvable form by using numerical calculation. This process essentially converts a mathematical
problem into a numerical problem. It should be emphasized that this discretization process refers to discretize
a certain mathematical problem in continuum domain into discretized domain, other than the physical
process. A certain example regarding to this point is the Eulerian models and Lagrangian models. They both
refers to a continuous fluid flow process, while they provide different discretization schemes to study the fluid
flow. Several issues should be handled in discretization process: the consistency between discretised equations
and continuous equations (e.g. PDEs), stability of numerical algorithm and approximation to mathematical
singularity etc. Also, the uncertainty propagation method should be specified as well, e.g. Monte Carlo (MC)
method or propagation with response-surface method. Design of the corresponding computer codes should
also be conducted in this process.

Computer programming for the discretized models: This phase refers to the process of develop a certain
computer program to implement the discretized models. A typical computer program developing process
should involve input preparation, module design and programming, compile and link. The input preparation
refers to the conversion process from data elements in mathematical and discretized models to program
applicable data. The program debugging and verification should also be addressed in this process.

Numerical solution of computer program: This refers to the process that running program and obtain the
discretized solutions with finite precision. For example, the numerical solution of specific spatial distribution
and time step. The uncertainty inhabited in the numerical solutions needs to be quantified, as they will
propagate through the whole simulation process and affect the final results. Several typical uncertainty sources
appearing in the process of calculating numerical solution are convergence criterion with respect to spatial and
temporal domain and truncation error etc.

Evaluation and analysis of numerical solution: This final process refers to judge the simulated numerical
results with measured field data, verification criterion and expert opinions. These judgements conclude the
confidence that the developed program predicts the physical process of interest. Two types of solutions are
mainly considered in this process, namely process solution and final solution. The decision makers generally
prefer to interpret final solution, while the engineers, physicist and numerical analyser are typically interested
in the process solution. This is because such process solution possesses more detailed information about the
interested physical process, e.g. the numerical solution confidence of PDEs, the system responses regarding to
difference boundary conditions and initial conditions.