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wst02 01 Rms 20230817

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
70 views13 pages

wst02 01 Rms 20230817

igcse statistics 2023

Uploaded by

bin He
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
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Mark Scheme (Results)

Summer 2023

Pearson Edexcel International Advanced Level


In Statistics S2 (WST02)
Paper 01
Edexcel and BTEC Qualifications

Edexcel and BTEC qualifications are awarded by Pearson, the UK’s largest awarding
body. We provide a wide range of qualifications including academic, vocational,
occupational and specific programmes for employers. For further information visit our
qualifications websites at www.edexcel.com or www.btec.co.uk. Alternatively, you can
get in touch with us using the details on our contact us page at
www.edexcel.com/contactus.

Pearson: helping people progress, everywhere

Pearson aspires to be the world’s leading learning company. Our aim is to help
everyone progress in their lives through education. We believe in every kind of learning,
for all kinds of people, wherever they are in the world. We’ve been involved in education
for over 150 years, and by working across 70 countries, in 100 languages, we have built
an international reputation for our commitment to high standards and raising
achievement through innovation in education. Find out more about how we can help
you and your students at: www.pearson.com/uk

Summer 2023
Question Paper Log Number 72905
Publications Code WST02_01_2306_MS
All the material in this publication is copyright
© Pearson Education Ltd 2023
General Marking Guidance

• All candidates must receive the same treatment. Examiners must mark
the first candidate in exactly the same way as they mark the last.

• Mark schemes should be applied positively. Candidates must be rewarded


for what they have shown they can do rather than penalised for
omissions.

• Examiners should mark according to the mark scheme not according to


their perception of where the grade boundaries may lie.

• There is no ceiling on achievement. All marks on the mark scheme should


be used appropriately.

• All the marks on the mark scheme are designed to be awarded. Examiners
should always award full marks if deserved, i.e. if the answer matches the
mark scheme. Examiners should also be prepared to award zero marks if
the candidate’s response is not worthy of credit according to the mark
scheme.

• Where some judgement is required, mark schemes will provide the


principles by which marks will be awarded and exemplification may be
limited.

• Crossed out work should be marked UNLESS the candidate has replaced it
with an alternative response.
General Instructions for Marking

The total number of marks for the paper is 75.

Edexcel Mathematics mark schemes use the following types of marks:

‘M’ marks
These are marks given for a correct method or an attempt at a correct method. In
Mechanics they are usually awarded for the application of some mechanical principle
to produce an equation, e.g. resolving in a particular direction; taking moments about
a point; applying a suvat equation; applying the conservation of momentum principle;
etc.

The following criteria are usually applied to the equation.

To earn the M mark, the equation


(i) should have the correct number of terms
(ii) each term needs to be dimensionally correct

For example, in a moments equation, every term must be a ‘force x distance’ term or
‘mass x distance’, if we allow them to cancel ‘g’ s.

For a resolution, all terms that need to be resolved (multiplied by sin or cos) must be
resolved to earn the M mark.

‘M’ marks are sometimes dependent (DM) on previous M marks having been earned,
e.g. when two simultaneous equations have been set up by, for example, resolving in
two directions and there is then an M mark for solving the equations to find a particular
quantity – this M mark is often dependent on the two previous M marks having been
earned.

‘A’ marks
These are dependent accuracy (or sometimes answer) marks and can only be awarded
if the previous M mark has been earned. e.g. M0 A1 is impossible.

‘B’ marks
These are independent accuracy marks where there is no method (e.g. often given for
a comment or for a graph).

A and B marks may be f.t. – follow through – marks.

General Abbreviations

These are some of the traditional marking abbreviations that will appear in the
mark schemes:
• bod means benefit of doubt
• ft means follow through
o the symbol will be used for correct ft
• cao means correct answer only
• cso means correct solution only, i.e. there must be no errors in this part of
the question to obtain this mark
• isw means ignore subsequent working
• awrt means answers which round to
• SC means special case
• oe means or equivalent (and appropriate)
• dep means dependent
• indep means independent
• dp means decimal places
• sf means significant figures
• * means the answer is printed on the question paper
• means the second mark is dependent on gaining the first mark

All A marks are ‘correct answer only’ (cao.), unless shown, for example, as A1 ft
to indicate that previous wrong working is to be followed through. After a
misread however, the subsequent A marks affected are treated as A ft, but
manifestly absurd answers should never be awarded A marks.

For misreading which does not alter the character of a question or materially
simplify it, deduct two from any A or B marks gained, in that part of the question
affected.

If a candidate makes more than one attempt at any question:


• If all but one attempt is crossed out, mark the attempt which is NOT
crossed out.
• If either all attempts are crossed out or none are crossed out, mark all the
attempts and score the highest single attempt.

Ignore wrong working or incorrect statements following a correct answer.


Question
Scheme Marks
Number
1. (a)(i) X ~B(50, 0.4)
P(X = 26) = 0.9686 – 0.9427 or 50C26 (0.4)26(0.6)24 M1
awrt 0.0259 A1
(2)
(ii) P(X 26) = 1 – P(X 25) M1
= 1 – 0.9427 = awrt 0.0573 A1
(2)
(iii) (From tables) k = 19 B1
(1)
(b)(i) J ~ N(240, 144) M1A1
 222.5 − 240 
P( X 222) ~ P( J  222.5) = P  Z   M1M1
 144 
P( Z  −1.46) = 1 − 0.9279 = awrt 0.0721 – 0.0724 A1
(5)
(ii) n is large (oe) and p is close to 0.5 B1
(1)
[11 marks]
Notes
(a)(i) M1 Use of tables or C26(p) (1 – p) with 0 < p < 1 allow alternative notations for
50 26 24
50
C26
A1 awrt 0.0259 (correct answer scores 2 out of 2)
(ii) M1 writing or using 1 – P(X 25)
A1 awrt 0.0573 (calc 0.0573437….) (correct answer scores 2 out of 2)
(iii) B1 19 cao k 19 or k 19 is B0

(b)(i) 1st M1 For writing or using N(240,…) (May be seen in standardisation)


1st A1 For writing or using N(240, 144) (May be seen in standardisation)
2nd M1 use of continuity correction 222 ± 0.5
 222 or 222.5 or 221.5 − their mean 
3rd M1    if distribution not clearly stated,
 their sd 
then the mean and sd must be correct in the standardisation to score this mark
2nd A1 awrt 0.0721 through to awrt 0.0724 (calc 0.0723743…)
Answer in the range implies all previous marks unless clearly comes from wrong
method
[NB: Use of binomial distribution gives 0.0719]
(ii) B1 both conditions required
for n is large allow in words e.g. ‘sample is large’
allow 0.4 in place of p
condone ‘n > 30’ (or any number > 30)
Ignore comments about np
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
2. (a) e.g. Population is small B1
(1)
(b)(i) list/register/database of all members (of the leisure centre) B1
(ii) A member (of the leisure centre) B1
(2)
(c) C is the statistic as it is (a quantity) based only on values (oe) taken B1
from the sample/it contains no unknown parameters/population (1)
values
[4 marks]
Notes
(a) B1 any correct characteristic of the population that makes a census a practical
alternative to a sample (accessible, finite, well-defined)
(b)(i) B1 idea of list (oe) and idea of all members (e.g. list of each member of the leisure
centre))
(ii) B1 a single member
Condone members Also condone One of the members in the sample
The opinion/view of one of the members is B0

(c) B1 choosing C (or clearly identifying C in words) only with a correct supporting
reason which must include value (oe) and sample or no unknown parameters
For values allow e.g. information, observations, calculations, function, numerical
data, etc.
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
5
3. (a)
 (x − 8 x + c ) dx = 1
1 2
48 M1
2
5
1  x3  M1
1=  − 4 x 2 + cx 
48  3 2
1   53   23 
1=  − 4(5 2
) + 5c  −  − 4(2 ) + 2c   or 48 = 39 − 84 + 3c
2

48   3  3 
( 3c = 93 )c = 31* A1cso*
(3)
(b) 1  x3 
3 M1
P(2  X  3) =  − 4 x 2 + 31x 
48  3 2
1   33   23   13 A1
  − 4(3 ) + 31(3)  −  − 4(2 ) + 31(2)   =
2 2
(=awrt 0.361)
48   3  3   36
(2)
13 B1
(c) Less than 3 since " " > 0.25
36 (1)
(d) x = 4 leads to the minimum/lowest value of f(x) / f(x) is a positive B1
quadratic (1)
(e) Considers x = 2 and x = 5 by e.g. M1
• f (2) = 0.39(583) [ = 19
48 ] and f (5) = 0.3 [ = 48 ] (so f(2) > f(5))
16

• Sketch of f(x) from x = 2 to x = 5


• x = 2 is further than x = 4 (then x = 5)
A1
Mode is x = 2
(2)
[9 marks]
Notes
(a) 1st M1 setting up integral and equating to 1 (condone missing dx) limits not needed
2nd M1 attempting to integrate f(x) at least one term xn → xn+1 (need not be = 1)
Use of integration of f(x) with F(2) = 0 and F(5) = 1 can score M1M1
A1* cso including use of correct limits. There should be at least one line of working
between scoring the 2nd M1 and arriving at the given answer.
Allow a verification method 1st M1 setting up integral 2nd M1 attempting to
integrate A1cso use of correct limits to show that it integrates to 1 and concluding
that c = 31
(b) M1 for use of integration of f(x) xn → xn+1 with correct limits 2 and 3 (ft from their
(a))
A1 allow awrt 0.361 (correct answer scores 2 out of 2)
(c) B1 less than 3 with correct reasoning.
May use their part (b), but must be consistent with ‘less than 3’
If the lower quartile is found awrt 2.67, allow LQ/2.67 < 3
(d) B1 correct reason why the method does not give the correct mode. Allow a sketch of
f(x). Also allow, e.g. ‘Kei’s method did not consider the end-points’
(e) M1 considers end-points
A1 mode is 2 cao Answer only scores M0A0. Must have some justification.
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
4. (a) p is small B1
(1)
(b) Let N = number of candles not suitable for sale
N ~ B(125, 0.02) M1
 C ~ Po(2.5) A1
P(C 6) M1
= 0.9858 awrt 0.986 A1
(4)
(c)(i) H 0 : p = 0.05 H1 : p  0.05 B1
D ~ B(30, 0.05) M1
P(D = 0) = 0.2146 A1
Do not reject H 0 / not significant M1
The manufacturer’s claim is not supported/There is not enough A1
evidence to suggest that the proportion(oe) of candle holders with
minor defects is less than 5%/ Charlie’s claim is supported (5)
(ii) Impossible to reject H 0 (since P(D = 0) > 0.05) B1
(1)
(d) 0.95 [=0.0769…] …. or X~B(50, 0.05), P(X = 0) (is still) > 0.05
50
M1
(so still not possible to reject H 0 ) hence Ashley’s change does not A1
make the test appropriate. (2)
[13 marks]
Notes
(a) B1 correct condition allow ‘p is close to 0’ allow ‘p < 0.1’ or any value less than
0.1 (condone np < 10 or np 10)
(b) 1st M1 recognising Binomial distribution (may be implied by Po(2.5))
1st A1 correct distribution Po(2.5)
2nd M1 writing or using P(C 6) from Poisson distribution
2 A1 awrt 0.986 from correct distribution used (calc : 0.9858126….)
nd

[NB : Use of binomial gives 0.98678…] Answer only 0.9858 or better scores 4
out of 4, but answer of 0.986 must see Po(2.5) to award full marks.
(c)(i) B1 correct hypotheses in terms of p or π
1st M1 writing or using B(30, 0.05) (may be implied by 1st A1)
1st A1 awrt 0.215
2nd M1 a correct ft statement consistent with their p-value and 0.05 No context
needed but do not allow contradicting non contextual comments.
2nd A1 correct conclusion in context which must be not rejecting H0.
Must use underlined words (oe) No hypotheses then A0
Condone e.g. ‘5% of candle holders have minor defects’
(ii) B1 correct reasoning which implies there is no critical region/ H 0 cannot be rejected
Sample size is too small on its own is B0.
(d) M1 for 0.9550 or for X~B(50, 0.05) and P(X = 0) > 0.05
A1 test is (still) not appropriate with M1 scored
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
5. (a)
F(3) = 0 → ( 3 − 6(3) + a ) = 0
1 2
16
M1

a=9 A1
F(10) = 1 → 1 (100(10) − (5)102 + c ) = 1 M1
12
c = –488
A1 (4)
(b)
(
1 2
5 − 6(5) + "9") =
1
(5 + b)
1
12
1
(
( 9 + b ) = 100(9) − 5(92 ) + "− 488"
12
) M1
16 12
b = –2 A1
(2)
(c) P(6 < Y 9) = F(9) − F(6) M1
M1
= 1 ( 9 + "− 2") − 1 ( 6 + "− 2")
12 12
A1
=1 (3)
4
(d) f(y) = 1
12
B1
(1)
9
(e)
E(6Y − 5) = [26.5+] (6 y − 5)" 121 "dy M1
5

= [26.5+] 121 [(3 y 2 − 5 y)]59 dM1


= 26.5 + 121 [(3(9 ) − 5(9)) − (3(5 ) − 5(5))]
2 2 dM1
233
= A1
6 (4)
[Total 14]
Notes
st
(a) 1 M1 writing or use of F(3) = 0
1st A1 a = 9 cao
2nd M1 writing or use of F(10) = 1
2nd A1 c = –488 cao
(b) M1 use of F(5) = F(5) [= 14 ] or F(9) = F(9) [= 127 ] ft their values from (a)
A1 b = –2 cao
(c) 1st M1 writing or using F(9) – F(6) (may be implied by 2nd M1)
2nd M1 substituting 9 and 6 into F(x) with their value of b
allow 1 (100(9) + 5(92 ) + "− 488") − 1 ( 6 + "− 2") with their value of b and their value of c
12 12
1
A1 4 oe
(d) B1 1
12
9
(e)
1st M1 use of  (6 y − 5)" 121 "dy (ignore limits)
5

2nd M1 (dep on 1st M1) attempt to integrate (6y – 5) " 121 " with at least one y n → y n +1
9
3rd M1 (dep on 1st M1) 26.5 +
 (6 y − 5)"
5
1
12 "dy

A1 awrt 38.8
SC: Answer only or correct answer not using given information scores M0M1M1A1
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
6. (a) 53  1  1 M1 A1
P(17 < W < k) = P(W < k) – P(W < 17) = − 1 −  = (2)
60  5  12
(b)(i) (b − a) 2
b − 17 1 17 − a 4
= 75 , = or = B1, B1
12 b−a 5 b−a 5
(b − a)2 b − 17 1
= 75 → (b − a) = 30 = M1
12 30 5
b = 23 and a = –7 A1
k − 17 1
(4)
k − ("− 7")
or P(W  k ) = "23"− k = 7
53
(ii) P(W  k ) = = or P(17  W  k ) = = M1
"23"− ("− 7") 60 30 12 "23"− ("− 7") 60

k = 19.5 A1
(2)
(c) 5 − (−5) 1
P(–5 < W < 5) = =
"23"− ("− 7") 3 M1A1ft
(2)
(d)  "23"+ "− 7" 
2

E(W 2 ) = Var(W ) + E(W ) 2 = 75 +   = 139 M1 A1


 2  (2)
[Total 12]
Notes
(a) M1 for writing or using P(W < k) – P(W < 17) allow < or
1  53 
Allow equivalent expressions e.g. P(W > 17) – P(W > k) = − 1 − 
5  60 
A1 oe condone awrt 0.0833 condone 1
12
13
coming from 12 − 1 or − 121

(b) (i) 1st B1 correct equation for variance


2nd B1 either correct probability equation Allow e.g. k in place of (b – a)
1st M1 eliminating (b – a) which must appear in both equations.
A1 both b = 23 and a = –7 correct answers imply all 4 marks

(ii) M1 probability expression using uniform distribution ft their values


A1 k = 19.5 oe cao

(c) M1 for 10/(their b – their a)


1 10
A1ft oe condone awrt 0.333 (Allow ft as exact fraction or evaluated to
3 their (b − a)
3sf or better provided a < –5 and b > 5)
(d) M1 use of E(W 2 ) = Var(W ) + (E(W )) 2 with values substitued for Var(W) and E(W)
ft their values of a and b allow any rearrangement. Must have a correct (ft) expression or
value for E(W)
"23"
Also allow 
"− 7"
1
"23"−"− 7" w2dw

A1 139 cao
Question
Scheme Marks
Number
7. (a) R ~ Po(8) B1
P(4 R 8) = P( R 8) − P( R 3) = 0.5925 − 0.0424 M1
= 0.5501 = awrt 0.550 A1
(3)
(b) H ~ Po(4) B1
P( H 2) = 0.2381 B1
Y ~ B(5, “0.2381”) M1
M1
P(Y = 2) = 5 C2 ("0.2381") 2 (1 − "0.2381")3
A1
= 0.25073… = awrt 0.251 (5)
(c) W = number sold in first fifteen minutes F = number of muffins sold
X = number sold in last forty five minutes in first 15 minutes

P(W = 4)P( X = 0) + P(W = 3)P( X = 1) F ~ B(4, 0.25) M1


P(W  X | R = 4) = P(F > 2) =
P( R = 4) M1
−2 4 −6 0 −2 3 −6 1 P(F = 3) + P(F = 4)
e 2 e 6 e 2 e 6
+
= 4! 0! −8 4 3! 1! =4 C3 (0.25)3 (0.75) + 0.254 M1
e 8
4!
13 A1
= (awrt 0.0508 or awrt 0.0509)
256 (4)
[Total 12]
Notes
(a) B1 writing or using Po(8) (may be implied by one correct probability from 0.5925, 0.0424 0.4530 or 0.0996)
M1 writing or using P( R 8) − P( R 3)
A1 awrt 0.550 (calc: 0.55016….) correct answer scores 3 out of 3
(b) 1st B1 writing or using Po(4)
2nd B1 awrt 0.238
1st M1 choosing binomial distribution with n = 5 and their p
2nd M1 5C2 p2(1 – p)3 with 0 < p < 1
A1 awrt 0.251
(c) 1st M1 attempt at either correct product P(W = 4)P( X = 0) or P(W = 3)P( X = 1)
from W ~ Po(2) and X ~ Po(6)
implied by awrt 0.0902×awrt 0.0025 or awrt 0.180×awrt 0.0149 or awrt 0.0029
2nd M1 conditional probability with P(R = 4) from R ~ Po(8) on denominator
implied by awrt 0.0573 seen in the denominator of a probability expression
3rd M1 complete expression for the required probability
implied (awrt 0.0902×awrt 0.0025+awrt 0.180×awrt 0.0149)/awrt 0.0573 for 3rd M1
A1 allow awrt 0.0508 or awrt 0.0509 from use of tables
ALT 1st M1 identifying B(4, 0.25)
2nd M1 P(F = 3) + P(F = 4) from B(4, 0.25)
3rd M1 4p3q + p4 from B(4, 0.25)
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