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Trend Assessment of Rainfall Over Mumbai and Pune Cities

Chapter · November 2022

DOI: 10.1007/978-981-19-7100-6_32

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Chapter 32
Trend Assessment of Rainfall Over Mumbai
and Pune Cities

Garv Saini, P. Jagadeesh, and G. Saikumar

Abstract The yearly rainfall trend for an area would be important in planning
irrigation patterns, reservoir management, storm water drainage, and so on, as well
as understanding the influence of climate change on rainfall in a region. Mumbai and
Pune are two metropolitan cities in Maharashtra state that have developed in the last
20–30 year. The present study intends to examine the precipitation pattern in
Mumbai and Pune. Monthly and yearly precipitation data values from the years
2000–2020 were utilized for the study. Basic statistical tests are used to assess the
trend of rainfall or its absence, and rainfall trend analysis is done using linear
regression analysis, Mann-Kendall analysis, and Sen's Slope estimator. The results
of trend analysis have shown an increasing trend in the Annual rainfall,
non-monsoon, southwest monsoon, and northeast monsoon in both Mumbai and
Pune. In both cities, a decreasing trend has been observed during the pre-monsoon
season. Reliability analysis is performed to provide statistics for drinking water
scheme design (90% dependability) and irrigation requirement calculation (75%
dependability).

Keywords Trend analysis · Rainfall · Hydrologic hazards

32.1 Introduction

India's agriculture and allied sectors, food security, and energy security are critically
dependent on the timely availability of water and a favorable environment. Rainfall
plays a significant role in satisfying needs of agriculture, residential water supply,
hydroelectric power generation, and industries (Gandhre et al. 2020; John et al.

G. Saini · P. Jagadeesh
School of Civil Engineering, VIT, Vellore, India
e-mail: [email protected]
G. Saikumar (*)
Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Warangal, Warangal, India
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 587
M. Pandey et al. (eds.), River Dynamics and Flood Hazards, Disaster Resilience and
Green Growth, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7100-6_32
588 G. Saini et al.

2021a, b). Global climate change may alter long-term rainfall patterns that affect
water supply, as well as the risk of increased droughts and floods (Pu et al. 2021;
Singh et al. 2022; Wallwork et al. 2022). The south west (S-W) monsoon, which
provides for approximately 80% of the total precipitation in the nation, is crucial for
the supply of freshwater for drinking and irrigation (Jagadeesh and Agrawal 2015).
Changes in climate across the Indian region, particularly the S-W monsoon, will
have a huge influence on agricultural productivity, water resource management, and
the country’s general economy (Kumar et al. 2010; Potdar et al. 2019). Nowadays
metropolitan cities have encountered severe water scarcity and declined groundwater
levels a result of rapid urbanization. Several studies reported that the frequency of
natural calamities such as floods and droughts was found to be increasing in the
Indian region (Joshi and Pandey 2011; Mondal et al. 2015). Normal rainfall is
required for appropriate agricultural productivity in order to keep food prices stable,
as food prices are dependent on agricultural yields. As agriculture accounts for 16%
of India’s GDP, a proper monsoon is also required for economic development (Rana
et al. 2013). Other economic activities like fishing and forestry are also directly
affected by the amount of precipitation. India's population growth and modernization
have resulted in increased water consumption. As a result, it is vital to investigate the
features of these events as well as the scientific reasons behind them.
Numerous researches have been conducted to investigate the long-term pattern of
rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. Mooley and Parthasarathy (1984) has studied
an analysis of the All-India summer monsoon rainfall (June–September) from 1871
to 1978. Parthasarathy et al. (1994) have taken all India monthly, seasonal, and
yearly homogenous data series from 1871 to 1993. They examined some data facts
and long-term trends in monsoon rainfall in India. Patil et al. (2013) studied the trend
of rainfall in Pune district using 47 years data from 1958 to 2004. Mann-Kendall
(MK) and modified MK tests for detecting trends and Sen’s slope estimator was
utilized for quantifying the change. There was a noticeable alteration in the spatial
and temporal rainfall pattern over the Pune region during the time of analysis. Rana
et al. (2012) have done trend analysis for rainfall in Delhi and Mumbai cities of
India. The results showed that a slight significant decreasing trend for long-term S-W
monsoon rainfall in Mumbai and both stations’ average maximum daily rainfall has
decreased. Jagadeesh and Agrawal (2015) investigated trends and their magnitude
using Mann-Kendall test and Sen slope methods. The overall analysis shows an
increasing trend in the east and a more decreasing trend in the south and west
compared to the north of the catchment from eight rain gage stations in Kerala’s
Bharathapuzha catchment from 1975 to 2009. Gandhre et al. (2020) conducted a
precipitation trend analysis for Maharashtra’s coastal districts from 1901 to 2000,
which revealed an increasing trend for Sindhudurg and Mumbai metropolis. There is
no discernible trend for Thane, Raigad, Ratnagiri, or Mumbai Suburban districts.
Rainfall in Mumbai has increased by 6.25 mm each year. Potdar et al. (2019)
conducted a Trend Analysis of Rainfall Data for Maharashtra and Goa from 1901
to 2015, and the findings show that the long-term trend in annual period and
southwest monsoon season across Maharashtra as a whole, Konkan and Goa, and
32 Trend Assessment of Rainfall Over Mumbai and Pune Cities 589

Madhya Maharashtra is increasing, while it is decreasing in Marathwada and

Vidarbha.
Maharashtra state has the second largest population in India and the third largest
surface area. The two largest metropolitan cities in Maharashtra are Mumbai and
Pune. The population of these two cities is rapidly growing as people migrate for
jobs and education. Such cities have a higher population density than towns or rural
regions. A significant portion of Mumbai was built through the process of land
reclamation, which is the removal of water to raise the level of the land, it is highly
susceptible to hydrological hazards such as flooding (Rana et al. 2012; Shankar et al.
2021; Pandey et al. 2022). This emphasizes the need of rainfall trend analysis so that
stormwater drains may be designed to drain excess precipitation or groundwater
from impermeable cemented constructions such as roadways, sidewalks, and
parking lots. Water consumption is increasing as a result of urbanization and
economic growth. This rainfall trend analysis study will aid in water management
by determining how rainfall has changed in previous years in order to meet escalat-
ing water needs.
The aim of the research was to examine the rainfall trend in Mumbai and Pune
cities from 2000 to 2020 and identify overall increasing or decreasing trends, as well
as to learn how the basic statistical data has changed over the given time period for
the annual period, non-monsoon season, pre-monsoon season, southwest monsoon
season, and northeast monsoon season. Find out the fundamental statistics about
rainfall such as maximum and minimum rainfall, mean, standard deviation, skew-
ness, and kurtosis of data gathered in various years based on the monsoon seasons. In
addition, the Mann-Kendall and Sen Slope methods will be used to analyze rainfall
trends.

32.2 Data and Methodology

This research looks at rainfall changes in Mumbai and Pune, two major cities in the
Indian state of Maharashtra, from 2000 to 2020. Precipitation data was analyzed by
categorizing it into four seasons: (1) non-monsoon (January, February, March),
(2) pre-monsoon (April, May), (3) southwest monsoon (June, July, August,
September), and (4) northeast monsoon (October, November, and December) then
basic statistical analysis of the data is done to find out the maximum and minimum
rainfall, mean, standard deviation, skewness, and Kurtosis.
Trend is defined as the long-term change in the dependent variable over a lengthy
period of time or as the overall movement of a series over an extended period of time
(Panda and Sahu 2019). According to recent research, the nonparametric Mann-
Kendall (MK) trend test is the most extensively used approach for detecting trends.
Mann (1945) developed the test first, Kendall (1975) subsequently developed the
test static known as the Kendall’s tau statistic. It was discovered to be a great tool for
trend identification in a variety of applications (Burn and Elnur 2002).
590 G. Saini et al.

32.3 Mann–Kendall’s Test

The M-K test is a statistical nonparametric test that is commonly used for trend
analysis in climatological and hydrological time series data. There are two benefits to
using this test. First, it is a nonparametric test that does not need the data to be
distributed regularly. Second, due to inhomogeneous time series, the test has limited
sensitivity to sudden breaks. The null hypothesis H0, according to this test, suggests
that there is no trend (the data is independent and randomly ordered). This is
compared to the alternative hypothesis H1, which expects a trend. The M-K statistic
may be calculated as follows:

nX
-1 X
n  
S= sign xk - xj ð32:1Þ
j = 1 k = jþ1

where

þ1, x k - xj > 0
  0, xk - xj = 0 ð32:2Þ
sign xk - xj =
- 1, xk - x j < 1

and tau is estimated as

2S
τ= ð32:3Þ
N ð N - 1Þ

Variance of S is calculated by the formula:

1
VAR ðSÞ = ½nðn - 1Þð2n þ 5Þ ð32:4Þ
18

where n is the number of value points in the set, the value of test statistic Z is
calculated by

S-1
Z = pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi if S > 0
VARðSÞ
= 0,if S = 0
Sþ1
= pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi if S < 0:
VARðSÞ
32 Trend Assessment of Rainfall Over Mumbai and Pune Cities 591

32.4 Sen’s Slope Estimator Test

Sen's estimate is a nonparametric approach for determining the size of a trend in a

time series (Sen 1968). Sen’s nonparametric method is used to determine the true
slope of an existing trend, such as the amount of change every year. A positive Sen’s
slope value shows an upward or growing trend in the time series, whereas a negative
value suggests a downward or decreasing trend.
The Sen’s method can be used in cases where the trend can be assumed to be
linear that is

f ðt Þ = Qt þ B ð32:6Þ

where Q is the slope, B is the constant, and t is the time.

To get the slope estimate Q, the slopes of all the data value pairs are calculated
using the equation:

xj - xi
Qi = ð32:7Þ
j-i

where xj and xi are the data values at time j and i ( j > i), respectively, i = 1, 2,
3, . . . N.
The Sen’s estimator of slope is the median of all the values of Qi.

Q = Q½ðNþ1Þ ,if N is odd,or

2
 
1
Q= Q½ðN Þ þ Q½ðNþ2Þ ,if N is even
2 2 2

To obtain an estimate of B in equation f(t) the values of difference xi –Qti are

calculated. The median of these values gives an estimate of B.

32.5 Results and Discussion

32.5.1 Statistical Analysis

The arithmetic mean was used to compute the average annual and seasonal rainfall in
Mumbai and Pune. The mean annual rainfall in Mumbai is more than in Pune since it
is closer to the shore and is in the windward direction, or on the side facing the wind.
It is lower in Pune because it is located in the leeward direction, which is shielded
from the wind. The average seasonal rainfall in these cities are shown in Figs. 32.1
and 32.2. Both Mumbai and Pune have a similar rainfall pattern, with the majority of
592 G. Saini et al.

MUMBAI
3000.00
2481.11
2500.00 2315.26
Rainfall (mm)

2000.00

1500.00

1000.00

500.00
122.73
7.04 36.09
0.00
Non Pre S-W N-E Annual
Monsoon Seasons

Fig. 32.1 Mean rainfall data of Mumbai

PUNE
1800.00 1700.89
1600.00 1529.03
Rainfall (mm)

1400.00
1200.00
1000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00 128.84
6.77 36.26
0.00
Non Pre S-W N-E Annual
Monsoon Seasons

Fig. 32.2 Mean annual rainfall data of Pune

the yearly rainfall falling during the southwest monsoon season and the least falling
during the non-monsoon season from January to March.
In Mumbai, where the mean annual rainfall is considerably high, the southwest
monsoon rainfall becomes the most significant, accounting for 93.3 percent of the
annual rainfall. Pre-monsoon and northeast monsoon both contribute 1.4% and
4.9%, respectively. The non-monsoon contributes the least, on average, 0.28%.
The analysis of mean rainfall distribution reveals that the southwest monsoon
rainfall contributes the most, accounting for 89.9% of total annual rainfall whereas,
the pre-monsoon rainfall and the northeast monsoon rainfall provide 2% and 7.5%,
respectively. Similar to Mumbai, the smallest contribution is from non-monsoon
rainfall, which accounts for only 0.3%. Both places have a similar tendency, with
32 Trend Assessment of Rainfall Over Mumbai and Pune Cities 593

Table 32.1 Statistical analysis of rainfall in Mumbai

Table 32.2 Statistical analysis of rainfall in Pune

greatest rainfall occurring during the southwest and northeast monsoon seasons,
followed by decreased rainfall during the pre- and non-monsoon seasons.
The statistical parameters maximum (Max) and minimum (Min) rainfall, mean,
standard deviation, skewness, and Kurtosis of rainfall data for both Mumbai and
Pune have been computed and are given in Tables 32.1 and 32.2 for seasonal
monsoon and annual rainfall data.
The highest mean rainfall value is observed in the S-W monsoon season of
2315.26 mm. In the non-monsoon season, the greatest rainfall was 52.89 mm in
2015, while the smallest rainfall was 0 mm in 2012. The greatest rainfall in the
pre-monsoon season was 271.16 mm in 2000, while the smallest rainfall was
0.43 mm in 2013 and the average annual rainfall over the years 2000–2020 in
Mumbai is observed to be 2481.11 mm. The maximum rainfall overall annually of
3387.31 mm was recorded in 2019, and minimum annual rainfall of 1326.58 mm
was recorded in the year 2002.
594 G. Saini et al.

The values of skewness are positive in the non-monsoon, pre-monsoon, northeast

monsoon, and annual seasons, indicating that it is positively skewed, i.e. the number
of observations fewer than the center point (or mean) is greater than the number of
values after the center point. In contrast, during the southwest monsoon season, the
skewness score is negative, indicating that the data is negatively skewed.
Very high Kurtosis values obtained in non-monsoon and pre-monsoon periods
suggest that the data set has a Leptokurtic distribution (with a high degree of
peakedness), with a very prominent peak and heavy tails, indicating a dramatic
contrast between the peak value and the other values. Negative Kurtosis values in the
southwest monsoon, northeast monsoon, and yearly period imply a Platykurtic
distribution for the data set (having a low degree of peakedness). They have a flat
top around the mean rather than a high peak, implying that the gap between the peak
value and the other values in the time period is less.
The highest mean rainfall value is observed in the S-W monsoon season of
1529.03 mm. The maximum rainfall in the non-monsoon season of 41.23 mm was
recorded in 2015, and the minimum rainfall of 0 mm in 2012. The maximum rainfall
in pre-monsoon season of 166.17 mm was recorded in 2006, and the minimum
rainfall of 2.56 mm in 2013. The maximum rainfall overall annually of 2729.43 mm
was recorded in 2019, and minimum annual rainfall of 890.96 mm in 2002.
The values of skewness are positive in all the rainfall periods which indicates that
they are positively skewed. Very high Kurtosis values in non- and pre-monsoon
periods as observed in Mumbai indicate that the data set is Leptokurtic distribution,
they have a very distinct peak and the tails are heavy, i.e. sharp difference between
the peak value and the other values. Whereas, negative values of Kurtosis in S-W
monsoon season, N-E monsoon season, and annual period indicate that the data set is
a Platykurtic distribution, they have a flat top around the mean instead of a sharp
peak so there is less difference between the peak value and the other values. This
exact same trend was observed in Mumbai also.
The percentage of coefficient of variation of rainfall in Mumbai as shown in
Fig. 32.3. The S-W monsoon season contributes the most to yearly rainfall, the
numbers are closer together, resulting in a comparable coefficient of variation,
24.40%for S-W and 23.67%for the annual period. In contrast, there is a wide
range of values for pre-monsoon (190.15%), non-monsoon (169.25%), and northeast
monsoon (70.93%) (Fig. 32.4).
Similar to Mumbai, the S-W monsoon period contributes the bulk of yearly
rainfall in Pune, and the values are closer to each other, resulting in a similar
coefficient of variation, 31.19% for the S-W monsoon season and 29.94% for the
annual period. Higher values are observed during the non-monsoon season
(137.84%), pre-monsoon season (128.21%), and N-E monsoon season (66.02%).
The graphs and the numbers generated in the table show that when the coefficient
of variation is low, the skewness is also low, as both represent how the distribution is
with regard to the mean value and provide insight into the pattern of data values over
time. As a result, the coefficient of variation and skewness values are both low for the
S-W monsoon season and the yearly period, whereas they are high for the non-, pre-,
32 Trend Assessment of Rainfall Over Mumbai and Pune Cities 595

MUMBAI
200.00
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
CV (%)

100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
Non Pre S-W N-E Annual
Monsoon Seasons

Fig. 32.3 Coefficient of variation (%) of rainfall in Mumbai

PUNE
160.00

140.00

120.00
CV (%)

100.00

80.00

60.00

40.00

20.00

0.00
Non Pre S-W N-E Annual
Monsoon Seasons

Fig. 32.4 Coefficient of variation (%) of rainfall in Pune

and N-E monsoon seasons. The standard deviation of seasonal and annual rainfall in
both cities are shown in Fig. 32.5.

32.5.2 Rainfall Trend Analysis

The rainfall trends from the year 2000–2020 for Mumbai and Pune using monthly
rainfall data have been analyzed by Mann-Kendall, Sen’s Slope Estimator, and
Linear Regression Analysis. Figures 32.6, 32.7, 32.8, 32.9, and 32.10 show the
596 G. Saini et al.

Fig. 32.5 Standard deviation of annual and seasonal rainfall in Pune and Mumbai

Fig. 32.6 Annual rainfall trend in Mumbai and Pune

trend of rainfall for annual, non-monsoon, pre-monsoon, S-W monsoon, and N-E
monsoon over the period 2000–2020. In both Mumbai and Pune, the total annual
rainfall rise. This might be attributable to a number of factors, including climate
change, which raises overall temperatures and increases precipitation. During the
non-monsoon season in the provided time period, a rising tendency has been noted.
During the pre-monsoon season (April–May), both Mumbai and Pune had a declin-
ing tendency, but the southwest monsoon period in both cities saw an increase.
32 Trend Assessment of Rainfall Over Mumbai and Pune Cities 597

Fig. 32.7 Non-monsoon rainfall trend in Mumbai and Pune

Fig. 32.8 Pre-monsoon rainfall trend in Mumbai and Pune

During the northeast monsoon season, a rising tendency has been noted in both
Mumbai and Pune.

32.5.3 Mann-Kendall Analysis

This test just identifies the direction of the trend, not the amount of the trend,
therefore it does not need presuming normality and is entirely dependent on the
598 G. Saini et al.

Fig. 32.9 Southwest monsoon rainfall trend in Mumbai and Pune

Fig. 32.10 Northeast monsoon rainfall trend in Mumbai and Pune

numbers that have been recorded and utilized for the computation. If the Z value is
negative, the trend is said to be falling; if the Z value is positive, the trend is said to
be advancing. The results of Mann-Kendall analysis are given in Table 32.3
The results suggest that rainfall in Mumbai and Pune is increasing in the
non-monsoon season, S-W monsoon season, N-E monsoon season, and yearly
period. During the pre-monsoon season, it has been declining. Mann-Kendall anal-
ysis of seasonal and annual rainfall of Mumbai and Pune are shown in Fig. 32.11.
32 Trend Assessment of Rainfall Over Mumbai and Pune Cities 599

Table 32.3 Mann-Kendall—Z values

Mann Kendall Analysis

2.5
2
1.5

1
0.5
Z Value

0 Mumbai
Annual Non Pre S-W N-E Pune
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
Monsoon Season

Fig. 32.11 Mann-Kendall analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall

32.5.4 Sen’s Slope Estimator

Sen's Slope estimator findings are given in Table 32.4. Sen’s Slope method analysis
for annual, non-monsoon season, pre-monsoon season, S-W monsoon season, N-E
monsoon season indicates rising patterns in annual, non-, S-W, N-E monsoon
seasons, and declining trends in pre-monsoon season, comparable to Mann-Kendall
Analysis. The S-W monsoon season has the most yearly growth in Mumbai, with
39.44 mm and 40.08 mm in Pune, followed by the N-E monsoon season’s 4.18
mm/year in Mumbai and 0.28 mm/year in Pune, and the non-monsoon season’s 0.21
mm/year rise. However, there has been a 0.8 4 mm/year reduction in Mumbai and a
1.40 mm/year decline in Pune during the pre-monsoon season. On an annual basis,
Mumbai has had a rise of 41.31 mm/year, while Pune has seen a rise of 46.21
mm/year.
600 G. Saini et al.

Table 32.4 Sen’s slope estimator

Fig. 32.12 Linear regression analysis of annual rainfall

32.5.5 Linear Regression Analysis (Figs. 32.12, 32.13, 32.14,

32.15, and 32.16)

The slope and intercept values of the linear regression analysis graphs are given in
Tables 32.5 and 32.6. The slope values in Mumbai and Pune have a negative sign in
the pre-monsoon season, indicating that there has been an overall declining tendency
throughout the years. Similarly, slope values in Mumbai and Pune have a positive
sign in the non-monsoon, S-W, N-E monsoon seasons, and the yearly period,
showing an overall growing tendency (Fig. 32.17).
32 Trend Assessment of Rainfall Over Mumbai and Pune Cities 601

Fig. 32.13 Linear regression analysis of non-monsoon season

Fig. 32.14 Linear regression analysis of pre-monsoon season

Fig. 32.15 Linear regression analysis of S-W monsoon season

Fig. 32.16 Linear regression analysis of N-E monsoon season

602 G. Saini et al.

Table 32.5 Linear regression analysis for annual and

seasonal rainfall

Table 32.6 Comparison between Sen slope and regression analysis

32.5.6 Reliability Analysis

Internal consistency means the amount to which test measurements stay consistent
across repeated trials under the same conditions is referred to as dependability. The
design of drinking water schemes is based on 90% dependability, whereas irrigation
requirements are calculated using 75% dependability. The results are shown in
Figs. 32.18, 32.19, 32.20, 32.21, and 32.22. The results showed that the rainfall
during non-monsoon and pre-monsoon period would not be having any significant
contribution in the annual rainfall. S-W monsoon has significant contribution in
annual rainfall.
90% dependable annual rainfall in Mumbai and Pune is 1824.6 mm and 1121
mm, 75% dependable annual rainfall in Mumbai and Pune is around 1970 mm and
1295 mm. During non-monsoon period 90% dependable rainfall for Mumbai and
Pune is 0.12 mm and 0.03 mm. While 75% dependable rainfall is approximately
0.4 mm for Mumbai and 0.62 mm for Pune. In pre-monsoon season 90% dependable
32 Trend Assessment of Rainfall Over Mumbai and Pune Cities 603

Fig. 32.17 Comparison of Sen slope and regression analysis

604 G. Saini et al.

Fig. 32.18 Reliability curve for annual rainfall

Fig. 32.19 Reliability curve for non-monsoon season

Fig. 32.20 Reliability curve for pre-monsoon season

Fig. 32.21 Reliability curve for southwest monsoon season

32 Trend Assessment of Rainfall Over Mumbai and Pune Cities 605

Fig. 32.22 Reliability curve for northeast monsoon season

rainfall for Mumbai and Pune are 2.2 mm and 2.9 mm and 75% dependable rainfall
is around 4.2 mm and 7.5 mm for Mumbai and Pune.
During S-W monsoon the 90% dependable rainfall in Mumbai and Pune is
1594.4 mm and 947.9 mm. In northeast monsoon season the 90% dependable
rainfall for Mumbai is 28.4 mm and for Pune around 36.7 mm.

32.6 Conclusion

Monthly rainfall data of Mumbai and Pune cities from 2000 to 2020 were analyzed
in this study. Annual and seasonal rainfall are statistically analyzed. The outcomes
are as follows: In Mumbai and Pune, the average annual rainfall is 2481.11 mm and
1700.89 mm, respectively. The southwest monsoon has contributed the most to both
cities, accounting for 93.3%in Mumbai and 89.9 percent in Pune. In both Mumbai
and Pune, a rising tendency has been noted in the annual period, non-monsoon,
southwest monsoon, and northeast monsoon. In both locations, however, a
diminishing tendency has been noted throughout the pre-monsoon season.
The highest rise per year in Mumbai is 39.44 mm/year in the S-W monsoon
season, 4.18 mm/year in the N-E monsoon season, and 0.21 mm/year in the
non-monsoon season. During the pre-monsoon season, there was a 0.84 mm/year
reduction. A rise of 41.31 mm/year has been noted on a yearly basis.
The annual rise in Pune is 40.08 mm/year in the S-W monsoon season, followed
by a 5.76 mm/year increase in the N-E monsoon season and a 0.28 mm/year increase
in the non-monsoon season. During the pre-monsoon season, there was a 1.40
mm/year decline. A rise of 46.21 mm/year has been noted on a yearly basis.
The dependable rainfall (90% or 75%) varies widely between the months and it is
the highest in the southwest monsoon season. These values slightly decrease in the
following months during northeast monsoon season. Thereafter, the rainfall reduces
drastically and 90% and 75% rainfall are almost nil for non-monsoon and
pre-monsoon season. Thus, this shows the need for very careful planning in the
design of water related schemes for drinking, irrigation or industry. This also
highlights the need for creation of storage to meet the demand in these months.
 606 G. Saini et al.

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