REGIONALSPECIALISED METEOROLOGICALCENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 07

DEMS-RSMCSPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 26.05.2024

FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TO:
STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT,
MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES,
REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
NATIONAL CENTRE FOR METEOROLOGY, UAE (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
PRESIDENCY OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT,
SAUDI ARABIA (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
IRAN METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
QATAR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF 26.05.2024
BASED ON 0600 UTC OF 26.05.2024

SUB: SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “REMAL” PRONOUNCED AS “RE-MAL” OVER NORTH BAY
OF BENGAL

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “REMAL” (PRONOUNCED AS “RE-MAL”) OVER THE

NORTH BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NEARLY NORTHWARDS, WITH A SPEED OF 13
KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTERED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE
26TH MAY, 2024 OVER THE SAME REGION NEAR LATITUDE 20.2°N AND LONGITUDE
89.2°E ABOUT 220 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (41984, BANGLADESH),
260 KM SOUTH OF MONGLA (41958, BANGLADESH), 210 KM SOUTHEAST OF SAGAR
ISLANDS (42731, WEST BENGAL) AND 230 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CANNING
(42812, WEST BENGAL). CURRENTLY, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 95-105
KMPH GUSTING TO 115 KMPH PREVAILS AROUND THE CYCLONE CENTRE.

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS, INTENSIFY FURTHER

AND CROSS BANGLADESH AND ADJOINING WEST BENGAL COASTS BETWEEN SAGAR
ISLAND AND KHEPUPARA, CLOSE TO SOUTHWEST OF MONGLA (BANGLADESH) BY 1800
UTC OF TODAY, THE 26TH MAY 2024 AS A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 110-120 KMPH GUSTING TO 135 KMPH.

Cloud distribution: (a) Isolated: <25%, Scattered:25-50%, Broken: 51-75%, Solid:>75%, Convection Intensity: (a) Weak: Cloud Top
Temperature (CTT) >-25°C, (b) Moderate: CTT: - 25°C to -40°C, (c) Intense: CTT: - 41°C to -70°C and (d) Very Intense: : Less than -70°C
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION):NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-33%, , MODERATE: 34-66% AND HIGH: 67-100%
This is a guidance Bulletin for WMO/ESCAP Panel Member countries. Visit respective National websites for Country specific Bulletins
 FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
DATE/TIME POSITION MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE CATEGORY OF
(UTC) (LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E) WIND SPEED (KMPH) CYCLONIC DISTURBANCE
26.05.24/0600 20.2/89.2 95-105 gusting to 115 Severe Cyclonic Storm
26.05.24/1200 21.0/89.1 110-120 gusting to 135 Severe Cyclonic Storm
26.05.24/1800 21.8/89.2 110-120 gusting to 135 Severe Cyclonic Storm
27.05.24/0000 22.7/89.5 70-80 gusting to 90 Cyclonic Storm
27.05.24/0600 23.5/89.8 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep Depression
27.05.24/1800 24.8/90.5 30-40 gusting to 50 Depression

AS PER INSAT-3D IMAGERY, CLOUDS ARE ORGANISED IN CURVED BAND PATTERN.

INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.0. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH AND
ADJOINING CENTRAL & NORTH ANDAMAN SEA (MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS -93
DEG CESIUS). AS PER MULTISATELLITE WINDS, STRONGER WINDS ARE SEEN IN EASTERN
SECTOR AND NORTHWEST SECTOR. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES WARM MOIST AIR INCURSION INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM.

AS PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS, ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 HPA AT 0600 UTC.
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 60 KNOTS. SEA
CONDITION IS HIGH TO VERY HIGH OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL AND VERY ROUGH CENTRAL
BAY OF BENGAL.

SHIP/BOUY OBSERVATION AT 0300 UTC IS GIVEN BELOW:

BOUY & SHIP WIND DIRECTION°/ MSLP(hPa)

(LAT°N/LONG°E) SPEED (KNOTS)

SHIP 20.2/86.3 60/11 KT 997

WIND WARNING:
(A) BAY OF BENGAL:
❖ GALE WIND SPEED REACHING 80-90 KMPH GUSTING TO 100 KMPH IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL
OVER CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL TILL 0600 UTC AND DECREASE BECOMING SQUALLY WIND
SPEED REACHING 50-60 KMPH GUSTING TO 70 KMPH TILL 0000 UTC OF 27 TH MAY.
❖ GALE WIND SPEED REACHING 90-100 KMPH GUSTING TO 110 KMPH PREVAILING OVER NORTH
BAY OF BENGAL IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BECOMING 100-120 KMPH GUSTING TO 135 KMPH
FROM 06 UTC TILL 1800 UTC OF 26 TH MAY. IT IS LIKELY DECREASE THEREAFTER BECOMING
70-80 KMPH GUSTING TO 90 KMPH BY 0000 UTC ON 27 TH MAY AND SQUALLY WIND SPEED
REACHING 45-55 KMPH GUSTING TO 65 KMPH BY 1200 UTC OF 27 TH MAY.
(B) ALONG & OFF BANGLADESH AND WEST BENGAL COASTS:
❖ SQUALLY WIND SPEED REACHING 50-60 KMPH GUSTING TO 70 KMPH IS PREVAILING ALONG
OFF BANGLADESH AND WEST BENGAL & ADJOINING NORTH ODISHA COASTS. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BECOMING GALE WIND SPEED REACHING 70-80 KMPH GUSTING TO 90 KMPH FROM
0900 UTC OF 26 TH MAY AND 100-120 KMPH GUSTING TO 135 KMPH ALONG & OFF
BANGLADESH AND ADJOINING WEST BENGAL COASTS FROM 1200 UTC OF 26 TH MAY TILL 0000
UTC OF 27 TH MAY. IT IS LIKELY DECREASE THEREAFTER TO BECOME 60-70 KMPH GUSTING
TO 80 KMPH BY 0900 UTC AND SQUALLY WIND 50-60 KMPH GUSTING TO 70 KMPH BY 1200 UTC
OF 27 TH MAY.
❖ SQUALLY WIND SPEED REACHING 45-55 KMPH GUSTING TO 65 KMPH IS LIKELY TO
COMMENCE OVER HOWRAH, HOOGLY, KOLKATA AND EAST MEDINIPUR DISTRICTS FROM 1200
UTC OF 26 TH MAY. IT WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY BECOMING GALE WIND SPEED REACHING
70-80 KMPH GUSTING TO 90 KMPH OVER THESE DISTRICTS AROUND 1500 UTC OF 26 TH MAY

Cloud distribution: (a) Isolated: <25%, Scattered:25-50%, Broken: 51-75%, Solid:>75%, Convection Intensity: (a) Weak: Cloud Top
Temperature (CTT) >-25°C, (b) Moderate: CTT: - 25°C to -40°C, (c) Intense: CTT: - 41°C to -70°C and (d) Very Intense: : Less than -70°C
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION):NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-33%, , MODERATE: 34-66% AND HIGH: 67-100%
This is a guidance Bulletin for WMO/ESCAP Panel Member countries. Visit respective National websites for Country specific Bulletins
 EXCEPT EAST MEDINIPUR WHERE THE WIND SPEED MAY REACH UP TO 60-70 KMPH GUSTING
TO 80 KMPH DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

(C) ALONG & OFF NORTH ODISHA COASTS:

❖ SQUALLY WIND SPEED REACHING 50-60 KMPH GUSTING TO 70 KMPH IS LIKELY TO
PREVAIL TILL 27 TH MAY 0000 UTC.
(D) NORTHEASTERN STATES:
❖ SQUALLY WIND SPEED REACHING 50-60 KMPH GUSTING TO 70 KMPH IS LIKELY OVER
MIZORAM TRIPURA SOUTH MANIPUR ON 26 TH 27 TH MAY AND 40-50 KMPH GUSTING TO 60
KMPH IS LIKELY OVER SOUTH ASSAM AND MEGHALAYA ON 27 TH MAY.

STORM SURGE WARNING:

STORM SURGE OF ABOUT 1 METER HEIGHT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS LIKELY TO
INUNDATE LOW LYING AREAS OF COASTAL WEST BENGAL AND 3-4 M HEIGHT ABOVE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LIKELY TO INUNDATE LOW LYING AREAS OF COASTAL BANGLADESH
AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THERE IS A PROBABILITY OF 80% FOR THE STORM SURGE
HEIGHT EXCEEDING 3 M ALONG & OFF BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN 900 E & 90.80E. THERE
COULD BE COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG THE RIVERS AND CREEKS INCLUDING MEGHNA
RIVER.

SEA CONDITION WARNING:

(A) CENTRAL AND NORTH BAY OF BENGAL:
VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEA CONDITION IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
ON 26 TH MAY AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL TILL 27 TH MAY 0000
UTC.
(B) ALONG OFF BANGLADESH AND WEST BENGAL COASTS
VERY ROUGH SEA CONDITION IS PREVAILING ALONG OFF BANGLADESH AND WEST BENGAL
COASTS. IT WOULD BECOME HIGH TO VERY HIGH ALONG OFF BANGLADESH AND WEST
BENGAL COASTS FROM 26 TH 0600 UTC ONWARDS TILL 27 TH MAY 0000 UTC.
(C) ALONG OFF NORTH ODISHA COAST:
VERY ROUGH SEA CONDITION IS LIKELY ALONG OFF NORTH ODISHA COAST TILL 27 TH MAY
0000 UTC.

FISHERMEN WARNING (GRAPHICS ATTACHED):

FISHERMEN ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE INTO CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL TILL 26TH MAY
AND NORTH BAY OF BENGAL TILL 27TH MAY. FISHERMEN OUT AT SEA ARE ADVISED TO
RETURN TO THE COAST.

REMARKS:
THE MADDEN JULIAN INDEX (MJO) IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 4 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE
THAN 1. IT’S PHASE & AMPLITUDE ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) DURING NEXT 12 HOURS.
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS (5-7 MPS) OVER NORTH BOB, WESTERLY WINDS (5-7 MPS)
OVER THE SOUTH & CENTRAL BOB ALONGWITH COUPLED KELVIN WAVES, EQUATORIAL
ROSSBY WAVES AND MJO WILL SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF SYSTEM DURING
NEXT 12 HOURS.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL (TCHP) IS MORE THAN 100 KJ/CM2 OVER MAJOR
PARTS OF BAY OF BENGAL. IT IS INDICATING SLIGHTLY DECREASING TENDENCY
TOWARDS NORTH BOB AND ALONG THE COASTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS
AROUND 30-32°C OVER ENTIRE BOB, BEING MORE THAN 32°C OVER SOME PARTS OF
NORTH BOB. THE SEA CONDITIONS OVER BOB ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFCATION OF SYSTEM.
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS ABOUT
250x10-5S-1 OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL WITH VERTICAL EXTENSION UPTO 200 HPA

Cloud distribution: (a) Isolated: <25%, Scattered:25-50%, Broken: 51-75%, Solid:>75%, Convection Intensity: (a) Weak: Cloud Top
Temperature (CTT) >-25°C, (b) Moderate: CTT: - 25°C to -40°C, (c) Intense: CTT: - 41°C to -70°C and (d) Very Intense: : Less than -70°C
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION):NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-33%, , MODERATE: 34-66% AND HIGH: 67-100%
This is a guidance Bulletin for WMO/ESCAP Panel Member countries. Visit respective National websites for Country specific Bulletins
 LEVEL. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ABOUT 30x10-5 S-1 TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER. STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS SEEN. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
ABOUT 30x10-5S-1 TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) IS ANTICYCLONIC AND LOW (05-10 KT) ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. MID LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS ANTICYCLONIC OVER THE SYSTEM AREA WHICH WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARDS, AS IT ITS
CENTRE LIES CLOSE TO RIDGE. IT WOULD CONTINUE SO FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, SYSTEM WOULD LIE TO THE NORTH OF RIDGE LEADING TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARDS MOVEMENT.
THE GUIDANCE FROM VARIOUS NUMERICAL MODELS IS INDICATING CROSSING OVER
BANGLADESH AND ADJOINING WEST BENGAL COAST. THE LANDFALL TIME IS VARYING
BETWEEN 1500-2100 UTC OF 26TH MAY. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
SYSTEM TO CROSS AS A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (50-60 KT).

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “REMAL” IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY

NORTHWARDS, INTENSIFY FURTHER AND CROSS BANGLADESH AND ADJOINING WEST
BENGAL COASTS BETWEEN SAGAR ISLAND AND KHEPUPARA, CLOSE TO SOUTHWEST OF
MONGLA (BANGLADESH) BY 1800 UTC OF TODAY, THE 26TH MAY 2024 AS A SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 110-120 KMPH GUSTING TO
135 KMPH.

M SHARMA
SCIENTIST D
RSMC NEW DELHI

Cloud distribution: (a) Isolated: <25%, Scattered:25-50%, Broken: 51-75%, Solid:>75%, Convection Intensity: (a) Weak: Cloud Top
Temperature (CTT) >-25°C, (b) Moderate: CTT: - 25°C to -40°C, (c) Intense: CTT: - 41°C to -70°C and (d) Very Intense: : Less than -70°C
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION):NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-33%, , MODERATE: 34-66% AND HIGH: 67-100%
This is a guidance Bulletin for WMO/ESCAP Panel Member countries. Visit respective National websites for Country specific Bulletins
 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
“REMAL”
20.2N/89.2E

Cloud distribution: (a) Isolated: <25%, Scattered:25-50%, Broken: 51-75%, Solid:>75%, Convection Intensity: (a) Weak: Cloud Top
Temperature (CTT) >-25°C, (b) Moderate: CTT: - 25°C to -40°C, (c) Intense: CTT: - 41°C to -70°C and (d) Very Intense: : Less than -70°C
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION):NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-33%, , MODERATE: 34-66% AND HIGH: 67-100%
This is a guidance Bulletin for WMO/ESCAP Panel Member countries. Visit respective National websites for Country specific Bulletins
Cloud distribution: (a) Isolated: <25%, Scattered:25-50%, Broken: 51-75%, Solid:>75%, Convection Intensity: (a) Weak: Cloud Top
Temperature (CTT) >-25°C, (b) Moderate: CTT: - 25°C to -40°C, (c) Intense: CTT: - 41°C to -70°C and (d) Very Intense: : Less than -70°C
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION):NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-33%, , MODERATE: 34-66% AND HIGH: 67-100%
This is a guidance Bulletin for WMO/ESCAP Panel Member countries. Visit respective National websites for Country specific Bulletins
Cloud distribution: (a) Isolated: <25%, Scattered:25-50%, Broken: 51-75%, Solid:>75%, Convection Intensity: (a) Weak: Cloud Top
Temperature (CTT) >-25°C, (b) Moderate: CTT: - 25°C to -40°C, (c) Intense: CTT: - 41°C to -70°C and (d) Very Intense: : Less than -70°C
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION):NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-33%, , MODERATE: 34-66% AND HIGH: 67-100%
This is a guidance Bulletin for WMO/ESCAP Panel Member countries. Visit respective National websites for Country specific Bulletins
Cloud distribution: (a) Isolated: <25%, Scattered:25-50%, Broken: 51-75%, Solid:>75%, Convection Intensity: (a) Weak: Cloud Top
Temperature (CTT) >-25°C, (b) Moderate: CTT: - 25°C to -40°C, (c) Intense: CTT: - 41°C to -70°C and (d) Very Intense: : Less than -70°C
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION):NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-33%, , MODERATE: 34-66% AND HIGH: 67-100%
This is a guidance Bulletin for WMO/ESCAP Panel Member countries. Visit respective National websites for Country specific Bulletins
 (A) Storm Surge Warning Graphics

(B) PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE OF STORM SURGE >3.0M

Cloud distribution: (a) Isolated: <25%, Scattered:25-50%, Broken: 51-75%, Solid:>75%, Convection Intensity: (a) Weak: Cloud Top
Temperature (CTT) >-25°C, (b) Moderate: CTT: - 25°C to -40°C, (c) Intense: CTT: - 41°C to -70°C and (d) Very Intense: : Less than -70°C
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION):NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-33%, , MODERATE: 34-66% AND HIGH: 67-100%
This is a guidance Bulletin for WMO/ESCAP Panel Member countries. Visit respective National websites for Country specific Bulletins
 24 hours Flash Flood Risk Outlook till 0600 UTC of 27.05.2024 FOR BANGLADESH:

24 hours Flash Flood Risk Outlook till 1130 UTC of 27.05.2024 FOR WEST BENGAL

Cloud distribution: (a) Isolated: <25%, Scattered:25-50%, Broken: 51-75%, Solid:>75%, Convection Intensity: (a) Weak: Cloud Top
Temperature (CTT) >-25°C, (b) Moderate: CTT: - 25°C to -40°C, (c) Intense: CTT: - 41°C to -70°C and (d) Very Intense: : Less than -70°C
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION):NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-33%, , MODERATE: 34-66% AND HIGH: 67-100%
This is a guidance Bulletin for WMO/ESCAP Panel Member countries. Visit respective National websites for Country specific Bulletins