FUNDAMENTALS OF MATHEMATIO

3-62 CAL
STA
p =P(A nA n...n A,) THE
11
(1-P) (Since A, s are
inde
II P(A,) II [1-P (A)] =iIIl
=

i= 1
=

i=1
dep
.1-XSe for 0 SxS1
IL
i=1
exp -P)

p Sexp-2 P as desired.

Remark. We have 1
-rS exp 0SxS1
(-1) for
1. Consider 0 <x <1. Tho
0 and x
=

is obvious for r = pro

Proof. The inequality ()

log (1-x) =-log(1-x) = 0, we get from (*)

x >
1. Further since
<x <
valid since 0
the expansion being - log (1 - 1 ) >x
log (1-x)->x desired.
-1<e,as
log(1-x)
<-x, ie will die in a vear
aged x years that a man
3-58. p is the probability
Twill die in a year and
Example each aged x, A
men A, A2., A,
probability that out of n
first to die.
denote the event
that A, dies in a year
Solution. Let E, (i =
1, 2,.., n)
1 -p.
P (E) =p, (i= 1,2,..., n)
and P (E,) =

Ay dies in a year
that none of n men A, Az
..,

Theprobability
P (E5) P(E,)
= P(E; nEz n . . . OE,) P(E;)
= . .

(By compound probability the

= (1-p)"
The probability that at least one of A, Az, . , A, dies in a year

=1-P(En Ezn..nE,) =1 -(1 -p)"

and since this grade
is
The probability that among n men, A is the first to die is 1/1
independent of the event that at least one man dies in a year, the re col

probability is: 1-1-p

EXAMPLES ON CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Example 3-59. Data on the readership of a certain magazine show that tine prr
male readers under 35 is 0-40 and over 35 is
0-20. If the proportionrene undd
0-70, find proportion of subscribers that are females over 35 yearsAlso C
the
probability that a randomly selected male subscriber is under 35
Solution. Let us define the years of age
following events:
e A : Reader of the
magazine is a male.
B Reader of the
magazine is over 35 years
Then in usual notations, we
of
age P
are given:
P(An B) 0-20, P (AnB) =0-40
=

and P(B)
P(B) =0-70o
AL STATIS y OF PROBABILITY
3-63
on
T h e proportion of subscribers tthat are
'females over 35 years' is:
P
P(A
P(B)
nB) (AnB) =0.30-020-010
=
-

independen
nd
T h e
p r o ability that randomly selected male subscriber is
b a b
a

P(A nB) 0-40

under 35 years is:
P(B 1A) =
PA) 060
PA)=P(A nB) + PA n B)=020 + 040 =0.601
o 60. Erom a city population, the probability of selecting (i) a malé or a smoker
Examplel94 , and (iii) a male, if a smoker is already selecteal is 2/3. Find fhe
maldemoker is 2/5,,
a non-smok oker, (b) a male, and (c) a smoker, if a male is first selected
fselecting (a)
nen he following events:
Solution. D e f i n e

A:amale is selected, B:a smoker is selected

Weare given
PAUB)=10 P(AnB)=5 P(A 1B) =
a non-smoker is:
The
robability f selecting
(a)
Jear. Find P(B) = 1 - P (6) = l P A B)
P (AnB) P(A IB) =
nd will be
t Pe B)

year. Then
-1-2/1--5
PB) =1-5-
6) The probability
of selecting a male (by Addition theorem) is
P(A) = P(A UB) +P (A n B) - P (B) =10t

lity theorem smoker ifa male is first selected is:

) The probability of selecting a
P(AOB)
P(B 1A) P(A) =

are college
Example 3-61. Sixty per cent of the employees of the XYZ Corporation
e this even graduates. Of these, tein per cent are in sales. Of the employees who did not graduate frot
ne requi ollige,eighty per cent are in sales. What is the probability that
)anemployee selected at random isin sales?
?
() anemployee selected at randomn is neither in sales nor a college graduate
Solution. Let us define the following events
broportion
under 359 A:Anemployee is a college graduate; B: An employee is in sales
calculate hen we are given: P (A) 0-60, P (B 1A) 0-10,
= P (B1A)= 0-80 =

( The
probability
that an is in sales is: employee
1A)
0)=P(An B) + P (A n B) = P (A) xP (B IA) + P(A)xP(B
060 x 0-10 +
(1-0-60) x 0-80 038
) Ihe probability that an employee is neither in sales nor a college graduate i
=

PA
B) =0.30
D1-PAUB) 1-IP(A) + P (B) -P (AnB)
=1-(P TH(5)-P(A) P (B IA)) = 38-0-60
1- (0-60 0:38-0-60>x0-10)
+
= U0.
 FUNDAMENTALS OF MATHEMATICAL AL STAT
3-64
A saiesnian who jio
marketea.
and B are to be
Example 3-62. Two computers A chances respectively ofstuco
them has 60% and 40% i n d e p e n d e n t l y . Given .
Me job offinding cust
tomers for c a n be
sold
and B. The two computers A has been soln
d
case of computer A probability
that conputer
able to sell at least one commputer, what is the
and F F enote
A is marketed
event that computer
Solution. Let E denot the
marketed. We
are given
event that computer B is
and
40=0-40
P (P100 P(F). ra
P (E) = 10o= 0-60
P E ) =0-40
PIEn(EUF)
= P [E I(EUH P(EUF)
Required probability 0-6 0-60
P(E) 0-76 0 dra
P(E 1-0-4x 06
1-
P(E)P(F)
1-P(EnF)
Example 3-63. A certain drug manufactured by a conmpany is tested chemicalanica
the event the chem
the drug is toxic
be denoed by E and
Let the event I E) P( FI)
(E) =0, P (Fcheniical test
=
nature.
foxic
be denoted by F. Let P
reveals that the drug is toxic
that the drug is not
toxic given that
the reveals R oi

Then show that probability repl-

the
istoxic isfreefrom e. P(F I E) P( FI )s1
=
and
Solution. We are given P (E)
= 0 P(E) =1 -0
der
of 0.
show that it is independent the
and w e have to
We want P (E 1 F)
=1- P(E I E)_1_0(1-0) [From (
P (E IF)=1 -P(E IF) =1- PA the
materialise in the following mutually disjoint
and exhau req
The event F can
we have
ex
cases: En F and E nF. Hence by addition theorem of probability,
+ P (E ) .P (FIË)
P(F) =P (En)+ P (En) P (E) P(F I E)
=

giv
(1-0)11-P(F IE) Usin mu
= 0 (1-0) +
=0 (1-0) + (1 - 0) |1-(1-0)
= 0 (1-0) + (1-0) 0 =20 (1-0).

pstituting in(),we get P IF)=1-20 (1 0)

1-= dra
which is independent of 0 dr
desired.as

Example 3.64. A bag contains 17 counters marked with the numbers 1

counteris drawn and replaced; a second drawing is then made. What is the probability
sec
(i) the first number drawn is even and the prc
second odd ?
(i1) the first number is odd and the
second even ?
How will yo1ur results in (i) and
(ii) be effected if the
Solution. (i) Let Adenote the event of first counter drawn is notrepla
rep
draw and B denote the getting even numbered counter O on t
the
Since the counter drawn is
event of getting odd numbered nd sil
replaced, events A and B are counter on the seco sil
Now from 1 to 17, the
even numbers are 2, 4, 6, 8, 10,independent. Sand
numbers are 9. 12, 14, and 16, i.e,o
P(A)= 7 and P (B) =
 PROBABILITY JAT 3-65
AL STATIS iltiplication
com of probability, the probability of
getting even
and odd
mber on the second draw is given by:
draw

apho 1s assi king first

=x
P(A)xP(B) 289
b eo
r n
the

f suCceedin
nB)=
en that he
pid drawn is not replaced efore the second counter is
counter

en sold? weverift
i ft h e
B
first
are
are
not
not independe In this case,
F denote eventsA
aar
nd
A

P(B1A)- 17x
events
Ho t n e

pidnB=P(A)x
a n n

counter drawn being odd and the second counter

PF)=0 probabilitiesoaf the first
The a r e

and
even

if replacement is made,
)
beng

60 nn

76 079 not made.

if the replacement is
8 silver coins. Trwo successioe drawings of 4
aically for A bag
contains 10 gold and
replaced before the second trial,
(i) the coins are not
chemical t Example365

hat: (i)
coins are
and
the first drauwing will gioe 4 gold
that

E)=1-
reveals that
made
re

hefore
such

tlhe
s e c o n a
Find the probability
trial. Firnd
md trial.
that

d coins
coins in the first draw and B
4
Stloer
event of drawing 4 gold
amd
denote the second draw. Then we have
to find
Silver coins in the
olution. L e t A
E)=1 drawing 4
event
of a
the
ote (An B). back in
ofP in the first draw are replaced
If the coins drawn
probability
e vith replacement.
and the
( )Draus
aw then the events A and B are independent
s e c o n d draw the
m(). before the the multiplication rule
of probability) by
the bag is given (usin sing
probability P(AnB)= P(A).P(B)
uired
exhaustive rqulre which
expression
drawn out of 10
+8 18 coins in 18C ways, =

can be
1st draw. Four coins order that all these
coins are of gold, they
of c a s e s . In
giesthe exhaustive number and this can be done in C4 ways.
Hence
the 10 gold coins
Using mustbedrawn out of
10C
From P(A)= FC
replaced before the 2nd
drawn in the first draw
are

nd drazo. When the coins 4 silver coins in the 2nd

contains 18 coins. The probability of drawing
aw,the bag C4 C4 X
in ("), P (AnB) RC IRC
=

tas givenby: P(B) = Substituting

the
1 to 17. not replaced back before
Dias tothoutreplacement. If the coins drawn
are

itythat B not independent and the require

aW, then the events A and are

probability is given by: P(AnB) =P(A). P(B IA)

As 10C
discussed in part (i), P (A)
eplaced
n the frst
=
C
the4 gold coins which were drawn in the first draw are not replace
of drawing 4
ond draw
eare
silverns18-4=
or
14 lert in the bag and P (B 1A) is the probability
coins and 8
are
fronm th
and od slver coins. bag containing 14 coins out are gold

Hence P(B
61A)=4
A)= CA
14CA
Substituting in (**), we get PAB)= RC 1OCA1ACaCA
 3-66
FUNDAMENTALS OF MATHEMATICAL
TICAL STAT THEOAY
contains 4 defectives
ives. The
record players
Example 3-66. A consignment of 15 examined. Those exan11nea are not bput
are selected at random, one by one, and
Pyer's examined is the last defectrve
What is the probability that the 9th one defectives in
examination
exactly 3
Solution. Let A be the event of gettingthat the 9th piece examined1is a det
event
note the
record players and let B
and since th
one. without replacement
P (A) "C3 "Cs /I
nere;
problem of sampling 15
= X
Since it is a record players,
out of
(and 11 non-defectives) is d e f e c t i v e given th
aerectives

that the 9th examined record player hat

P(B TA) Probability
=

were 3 defectives in
the first 8 pieces
examined

15 8 =7.
d- -

defective piece left among

the remaining Tec
Since there is only
one

players. P (B|A)
P (An B) =P (A)
Hence, required probability
=

8
thrown. Let A be tho
green and the other red are
dice,
.

Two one
Example 3.67. at least one ace (numb
on the faces is odd,
and B be the evei of
that the sum of the points
space, (ii)
events A, B,B, A n B, UB A
(a) Describe the (i) complete sample
all the 36 sample points have
An Band find their probabilities assuming that
probabilities.
Ar
(b) Find the probabilities ofthe events:
(i) (A UB Cii) CA nB) (ii) (A nB) (iv) (A n B)
() (AnB) (vi) (A UB) (vii) (A UB) (vii) A o(A UB)
(ix) A uA nB) (x) (A IB) and (B I A), and (xzi) (A I B)and (B 1A
Solution. (a) (i) The sample space S, consisting of the 36 elementary even
given by:
S
1,2,3,4,5, 6) x [1, 2,3, 4, 5, 6
1, 1); (1, 2); (1,3); (1, 4); (1,5); (1,6),
(2,1) (2, 2) (2, 3); (2, 4); (2, 5); (2,6),
(3,1); (3,
2);(3,3);(3,4); (3,5) :3,6),
4,1) 4, 2); (4,3): 4,4); (4,5); (4, 6),
6,1) (5, 2); (5, 3); (5, 4); (6, 5); 5,6),
(6,1); 6, 2); (6,3);
where, for example, the (6, 4); (6, 5)(6, 6)
green die shows 4
ordered pair (4, 5) refers to
and the red die the event thal
A
shows 5. elementary
=The event that the sum
of the
[1,3, 5) numbers shown by the iso
(2, 4, 61
=
x two aic
12, 4, 6)
[1, 3, 5) x
=

(1,2);(2,1):(1,4);
(4,3);(5, (2, 3); (3, 2): (4, 1); (1,
2); (6, 1);(3, 6); (4, 5); 6) :(2, 5); (3, 4)
P(A) ="(A)_
n(S)36
18 (5, 4); (6, 3);: (5, 6); (6,
(6, 5) °)