P-ISSN: 2170-1040 E-ISSN: 2602-5426

365-351 : (2022) 01 : – 13 :

( 2020-1991)
The impact of oil prices on economic growth in Algeria Saudi Arabia and the United
‫ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬،‫ﺍﻟﺠﺰﺍﺋﺮ‬
Arab ‫ﻣﻦ‬Emirates
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ‬
for the‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬1991-2020)
period ‫ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺘﺮﻭﻝ‬ :‫ﺍﻟﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ‬
(1991-2020) ‫ﻭﺍﻹﻣﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬
‫ﻣﺠﻠﺔ ﺩﻓﺎﺗﺮ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ :‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺪﺭ‬
[email protected] ( ) - 2
‫ ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻴﻴﺮ‬- ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﻋﺎﺷﻮﺭ ﺯﻳﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﻠﻔﺔ‬ :‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺷﺮ‬
‫ ﻋﺒﺎﺳﻲ‬،‫ﻣﻔﺘﺎﺡ‬ :‫ﺍﻟﻤؤﻟﻒ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻲ‬
2022/05/10 : 2022/05/03 : 2022/02/28 :
1‫ ﻉ‬,13‫ﻣﺞ‬ :‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ‬/‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ‬
‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ :‫ﻣﺤﻜﻤﺔ‬
2022 :‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﻼﺩﻱ‬: ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ‬
‫ﻣﺎﻳﻮ‬ :‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ‬
(2020 - 1991 ) - 351-- 365 :‫ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺤﺎﺕ‬
(panel data) 10.36530/1661-013-001-024 :DOI
1272127 :MD ‫ﺭﻗﻢ‬
‫ﺑﺤﻮﺙ ﻭﻣﻘﺎﻻﺕ‬ :‫ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺘﻮﻯ‬

(FMOLS ) ECM Arabic (Test Pèdroni )

:‫ﺍﻟﻠﻐﺔ‬

. EcoLink :
:‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻮﺍﻋﺪ‬
‫ ﺍﻹﻣﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬،‫ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬،‫ ﺍﻟﺠﺰﺍﺋﺮ‬،‫ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬،‫ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬،‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ C01, C21,: JEL:‫ﻣﻮﺍﺿﻴﻊ‬
Abstract: http://search.mandumah.com/Record/1272127 :‫ﺭﺍﺑﻂ‬
Through this study, we aim to learn about the impact of oil price volatility on economic growth in
petroleum exporting countries. For this purpose, a sample of three countries, Algeria, Saudi Arabia
and the United Arab Emirates, was selected during the period. (1991 - 2020) One of the methods of
economic measurement, the Pannell data, was used for this purpose. (panel data), where the study
found that the fixed impact model is a proposed model for the study but suffers from a subjective
correlation of errors. In order to improve the results of the study, we studied the stability of time
chains and the achievement of a long-term balance between petroleum prices and economic growth
using the Pedroni test. (Test Pèdroni) and finally estimate the ECM error correction model in a
manner (FMOLS).
Key words: oil prices, economic growth, panel data.
JEL Classification: C21, C01

.‫ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻮﻕ ﻣﺤﻔﻮﻇﺔ‬.‫ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ‬2022 ©

‫ ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻚ ﺗﺤﻤﻴﻞ ﺃﻭ ﻃﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩﺓ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬.‫ ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﻣﺤﻔﻮﻇﺔ‬،‫ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﻗﻊ ﻣﻊ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ‬
‫ ﻭﻳﻤﻨﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺦ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﻋﺒﺮ ﺃﻱ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﺔ )ﻣﺜﻞ ﻣﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﺮﻧﺖ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻳﺪ ﺍﻻﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻲ( ﺩﻭﻥ ﺗﺼﺮﻳﺢ ﺧﻄﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﺃﻭ‬،‫ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻲ ﻓﻘﻂ‬
.‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ‬

- 351 -
 P-ISSN: 2170-1040 E-ISSN: 2602-5426
365-351 : (2022) 01 : – 13 :

( 2020-1991)
The impact of oil prices on economic growth in Algeria Saudi Arabia and the United
:‫ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺸﻬﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺏ‬ ‫ﺣﺴﺐ ﺇﺳﻠﻮﺏ‬
Arab Emirates ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
for the ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
period ‫ﻟﻺﺳﺘﺸﻬﺎﺩ ﺑﻬﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻗﻢ ﺑﻨﺴﺦ‬
1991-2020)
APA ‫ﺇﺳﻠﻮﺏ‬
‫ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬،‫ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺘﺮﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺠﺰﺍﺋﺮ‬.(2022) .‫ ﻋﺒﺎﺳﻲ‬،‫ﻣﻔﺘﺎﺡ‬
[email protected] ( ) - 2
، 351 - 365. 1‫ ﻉ‬,13‫ ﻣﺞ‬،‫ﻣﺠﻠﺔ ﺩﻓﺎﺗﺮ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬.(1991-2020) ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻣﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬
1272127/Record/com.mandumah.search//:http ‫ﻣﺴﺘﺮﺟﻊ ﻣﻦ‬
MLA ‫ﺇﺳﻠﻮﺏ‬
2022/05/10 : 2022/05/03 : 2022/02/28 :
‫ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬،‫ "ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺘﺮﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺠﺰﺍﺋﺮ‬.‫ ﻋﺒﺎﺳﻲ‬،‫ﻣﻔﺘﺎﺡ‬
.365 - 351 :(2022) 1‫ ﻉ‬,13‫"ﻣﺠﻠﺔ ﺩﻓﺎﺗﺮ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔﻣﺞ‬.(1991-2020) ‫ﻭﺍﻹﻣﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬
1272127/Record/com.mandumah.search//:http ‫ﻣﺴﺘﺮﺟﻊ ﻣﻦ‬
:

(2020 - 1991 ) - -
(panel data)

(FMOLS ) ECM (Test Pèdroni )

. :
C01, C21,: JEL
Abstract:
Through this study, we aim to learn about the impact of oil price volatility on economic growth in
petroleum exporting countries. For this purpose, a sample of three countries, Algeria, Saudi Arabia
and the United Arab Emirates, was selected during the period. (1991 - 2020) One of the methods of
economic measurement, the Pannell data, was used for this purpose. (panel data), where the study
found that the fixed impact model is a proposed model for the study but suffers from a subjective
correlation of errors. In order to improve the results of the study, we studied the stability of time
chains and the achievement of a long-term balance between petroleum prices and economic growth
using the Pedroni test. (Test Pèdroni) and finally estimate the ECM error correction model in a
manner (FMOLS).
Key words: oil prices, economic growth, panel data.
JEL Classification: C21, C01

.‫ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻮﻕ ﻣﺤﻔﻮﻇﺔ‬.‫ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ‬2022 ©

‫ ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻚ ﺗﺤﻤﻴﻞ ﺃﻭ ﻃﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩﺓ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬.‫ ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﻣﺤﻔﻮﻇﺔ‬،‫ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﻗﻊ ﻣﻊ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ‬
‫ ﻭﻳﻤﻨﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺦ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﻋﺒﺮ ﺃﻱ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﺔ )ﻣﺜﻞ ﻣﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﺮﻧﺖ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻳﺪ ﺍﻻﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻲ( ﺩﻭﻥ ﺗﺼﺮﻳﺢ ﺧﻄﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﺃﻭ‬،‫ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻲ ﻓﻘﻂ‬
.‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ‬

- 351 -
 P-ISSN: 2170-1040 E-ISSN: 2602-5426
365-351 : (2022) 01 : – 13 :

( 2020-1991)
The impact of oil prices on economic growth in Algeria Saudi Arabia and the United
Arab Emirates for the period 1991-2020)

[email protected] ( ) - 2

2022/05/10 : 2022/05/03 : 2022/02/28 :

(2020 - 1991 ) - -
(panel data)

(FMOLS ) ECM (Test Pèdroni )

. :
C01, C21,: JEL
Abstract:
Through this study, we aim to learn about the impact of oil price volatility on economic growth in
petroleum exporting countries. For this purpose, a sample of three countries, Algeria, Saudi Arabia
and the United Arab Emirates, was selected during the period. (1991 - 2020) One of the methods of
economic measurement, the Pannell data, was used for this purpose. (panel data), where the study
found that the fixed impact model is a proposed model for the study but suffers from a subjective
correlation of errors. In order to improve the results of the study, we studied the stability of time
chains and the achievement of a long-term balance between petroleum prices and economic growth
using the Pedroni test. (Test Pèdroni) and finally estimate the ECM error correction model in a
manner (FMOLS).
Key words: oil prices, economic growth, panel data.
JEL Classification: C21, C01

- 351 -
( 2020-1991)

: .1

.
: 1.1
-
(2020 - 1991)
: 2.1
:
(2020 - 1991) - )
.
: 3.1

.
: 4.1
. -
. -
. -
: 5.1
:
: -
. -1
. -2

- 352 -
 365 - 351 : (2022) 01 : – 13 :

. -3
. -4
. -5
- - -
: (2020 -1991)
. -1
. -2
. -3
-4

: 6.1

(panel data)

: (1991-2020)

- 01 18 : (2000-2016)
2018

.
2008-1986 . :
2010
150 2008 2007 2003
.
the impact of oil prices shokes on Hakan Berument Basak ceylan :
. the countries MENA selected of growth economi
2010 31 1

VAR

- 353 -
 ( 2020-1991)

: .2
: .1.2

.
: (1996 ) .2.2

.
: .3.2
:spot market .1.3.2
(48 2020 )

OAPEC OPEC
: AIE
-
. -
. -
: (Forward market) .2.3.2
)

-81 2014 )
(82
: .
15
.
: .
.
: .4.2
.
: .1.4.2
.
.
.
- 354 -
 365 - 351 : (2022) 01 : – 13 :

: .

. .
: .
.
:(49 2020 ) .2.4.2

:
: .
.
1956 :
1981 1973
.
. :
(2019 ) 2.5
-
-
-
. -
-
. -
(2019 ) -

.3
:(1991-2020)
: 3

(2021 )
.2020 1991

- 355 -
 ( 2020-1991)

(21-16 2015 .Baltagi B)

.1.3

(PANEL DATA)
:
Yit 0 1 X 1it 2 X 2it ... it

i 1.2....N; t 1.2....T
:
LGDPit 0 1 LPOit it

i 1.2....N; t 1.2....T
(3 N) :i
(2020 1991 30 T) :t
. t i : LGDPit
. t i : LPOit
: it
.2.3

(Random) (Fixed) (Pooled) :

"Pooled) Fixed (Random " :01

Method Pooled Fixed Random
LPO 0.347922 (0.0002) 0.374374 (0.0000) 0.348071 (0.0000)
C 24.89850 (0.0000) 24.80131 (0.0000) 24.89795 (0.0000)
R2 0.143462 0.921883 0.144197
F- statistic 14.73919 ( 0.000232) 338.3034 (0.0000) 14.82740 (0.000223)
Durban- 0.023092 0.291948 0.023229
Watson stat
:(.) / .03 02 01 Eviews12
.H0

- 356 -
365 - 351 : (2022) 01 : – 13 :

: p. 277) 2005 (William

( R 2 MNC R 2 MC ) /( N 1)
F (N 1 , NT N K) 2
(1 R MNC ) /( NT N K)

( 3 ) :N
( 30 ) :T
(1 ) :K
: RMC
2

. RMC
2
0.048
: RMNC
2

.( RMNC
2
0.85 )
FC 419 .25

%5 H0 F( 2 ,86 ) 3 . 07 :
.

" (Hausman Test " :02

Test Summary Chi-Sq. Statistic Chi-Sq. d.f Prob
Cross-section random 851.156617 1 0.0000
.04 Eviews12
2
C 851.15 02
2
tab 3.84

.3.3

(01)
LGDPit 24.80131 0.374374 LPO it eit

- 357 -
 ( 2020-1991)

.% 0.374374 %1
.
(Student
(Fisher %5
R2 0.92 %5
. %92
(DW)
(DW) (Non convergents)
(Data Panel)

" :03
Test Statistic d.f. Prob
Breusch-Pagan LM 66.17917 3 0.0000
Pesaran scaled LM 25.97279 0.0000
Pesaran CD 8.097260 0.0000
.05 Eviews12
%5
H1 : 0 : H0 : 0

Peng Kao Baltagi)

.(06-03 2016

.4.3

Im (Breitung ( Lin et Chu Levin) :

.(Maddala et Wu) (Pesaran et Shin

- 358 -
 365 - 351 : (2022) 01 : – 13 :

:(LPO LGDP)
:LGDP -
"LGDP " :04
Panel unit root test :Summary Series: LGDP Series: D(LGDP)
Method Statistic Prob** Statistic Prob**
Levin Lin&Chu t* 3.17543 0.9993 -1.73265 0.0416
Breitung t-stat 3.40985 0.9997 -0.22761 0.5900
Im Pesaran and Shin W-stat 2.78921 0.9974 -2.68078 0.0037
ADF – Fisher Chi-square 0.80625 0.9919 18.5217 0.0051
PP – Fisher Chi-square 1.19526 0.9771 17.6558 0.0072
.07 06 Eviews12
: H0 (04)
%5 LGDP
H0 LGDP
. LGDP H1

:LPO -
"LPO " :05
Panel unit root test :Summary Series: LPO Series: D( LPO)
Method Statistic Prob** Statistic Prob**
Levin Lin&Chu t* -2.32935 0.9901 -6.19725 0.0000
Breitung t-stat 1.37650 0.9157 -1.62623 0.0519
Im Pesaran and Shin W-stat 2.31424 0.9897 -4.67322 0.0000
ADF – Fisher Chi-square 0.50560 0.9978 29.7101 0.0000
PP – Fisher Chi-square 0.54366 0.9973 23.5488 0.0006
.09 08 Eviews12
: H0 (05)
%5 LPO
H0 LPO
. LPO H1

LPO LGDP :
%5
.%5

d
28-23 2006 Mignon Hurlin) d
.(2011

- 359 -
( 2020-1991)

(Pedroni)

: (Pedroni) -
LPO LGDP :

(Pedroni)
(Pedroni) " :06
Tests Statistic Prob. Statistic Prob.
Panel v-Statistic 0.692130 0.2444 0.853118 0.1968
Panel rho-Statistic 3.761026- 0.0001 -3.504678 0.0002
Panel pp-Statistic -4.285102 0.0000 -3.913509 0.0000
Panel ADF-Statistic -4.304656 0.0009 -3.942487 0.0010
Statistic Prob.
Group rho-Statistic -2.123179 0.0169
Group PP-Statistic -3.341520 0.0004
Group ADF-Statistic -3.404462 0.0003
.10 Eviews12
LPO LGDP
%5 (0.05)
%5
(Pedroni)

(VECM) (VECM)
(Pedroni-2000) FMOLS

.(100-96 2000 Pedroni)

:FMOLS
"FMOLS " :07
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob.
Lpo 0.397495 0.041435 9.593225 0.0000
R-squared 0.921090
Sum squared resid 2.685543
Q-Statistic Prob.
Lj-Box Resid 12.336 0.419
Lj-Box Resid square 12.478 0.408
.12 11 Eviews12

- 360 -
365 - 351 : (2022) 01 : – 13 :

%92 R2 0.92 :(07)

%5 LPO

.0.39
:
H0 : 0 %5 (Lj-Box)
(Lj-Box)

: .4

(MEF)
DW
.

(Test Pedroni)

FMOLS (VECM)
.

.5
.1996 . .1

. .2
.2020 ) 2015 -1980

. .3
.2014

- 361 -
 ( 2020-1991)

.4
.174-159 2019 02 10
2014 1986 .5
.2019 01 10
: 2021.04.11 .(2021) . .6
https://data.albankaldawli.org/country

7. Baltagi B. H. (2015). Panel Data. Oxford: Oxford University Press. pp.16-21.

Oxford: Oxford University Press.

8. William G. (2005). économétrie (Vol. édition française dirigée). (S. Didier Éd. A.
Théophile & C. Nicolas Trads.) Université Paris II. P 277.

9. Baltagi B. H. Kao C. & Peng B. (2016). Testing Cross-Sectional Correlation in

Large Panel Data Models with Serial Correlation. Econometrics 04 (44) pp.03-
06.

10. Hurlin C. & Mignon V. (2006). une synthèse des testes de cointegration sur
données de Panel. université d’Orléans pp. 23 - 28.

11. Pedroni P. (2000). Fully modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated panels.
Emerald Group Publishing Limited Bingley Vol. 15 pp. 96-100.

-6

:03 02 :01

- 362 -
365 - 351 : (2022) 01 : – 13 :

.Eviews 12

:05 :04
)Hausman Test(

Eviews 12.

:07 :06
D(LGDP) LGDP

Eviews 12.

- 363 -
( 2020-1991)

:09 :08
D(LPO) LPO

Eviews 12.

(Pedroni) :10

.Eviews 12

FMOLS :11

.Eviews 12

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(Lj-Box :11

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