GEC410-

Probability and
Statistics
GEC410-Probability and Statistics Module 1 Lecture
II

Module 1 Lecture II

By

Dr. T. J. Akingbade
Department of Mathematics, Covenant University,
Nigeria.

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 1

Conditional Probability:

If A and B are any two events, if the occurrence of event A depends on the event
B, the probability of A will be the probability of A given B, and is denoted by
p(A|B). This probability is called conditional probability, also p(B|A) is read
probability of B given A.
The conditional probability of an event is the probability of the event given that
one or more events have already occurred.
P( A  B)
P( A | B) = ; provided P( B)  0
P( B)
similarly, the conditional probability of B given A can be expressed as
P( A  B)
P( B | A)= ; provided P( A)  0
P( A)
If however, event A and B are i ndepenedent,
P( A).P( B)
P( A | B) = = P( A); provided P( B)  0
P( B)
 GEC410-
Definition: Dependent (Independent) Events Probability and
Statistics

Module 1

Two or more events are said to be dependent if the

occurrence of one affects the occurrence of the others. For
instance, suppose it is planned to draw two balls from a bag
of 20 balls, if a ball is drawn without replacement, and the
second ball is drawn, thus, the event of drawing the second
ball is dependent on that of the first ball.
A and B are independent if:

P(A | B) = P(A)

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 GEC410-
Remarks & examples on independent events Probability and
Statistics

Module 1

For independent events A and B, we have:

i) P(A | B) = P(A)
ii) P(B | A) = P(B)
Exercise: Show that P(A ∩ B) = P(A).P(B). If A and B
are two independent events.
Example 2: Find (i) P(B) and (ii)P(A ∪ B) if A and B are
1 1
independent events such that P(A) = , P(A ∩ B) = .
3 12
1 1
Ans: (i) P(B) = (ii) P(A ∪ B) =
4 2

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 GEC410-
Exercise: independent events Probability and
Statistics

Module 1

The events A and B are such that

P(A | B) = 0.4, P(B | A) = 0.25 and P(A ∩ B) = 0.12.
i Find P(B)
ii Give a reason why A and B are not independent.

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Questions
 4
Example2.
The final year students of a polytechnic who completed the necessary forms for the
National Youth Service Corps postings were categorized according to gender and
marital status as shown in the following table:
Married Unmarried Sub-
total
Male 50 560 610
Female 80 240 320
Sub- 130 800 930
total

If a student is selected at random from this group of final year students, what is the
probability that:
(a). the student is married given that he is a male student and
(b). the student is a female student, given that she is unmarried.
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Solution.
(a). Let E1 be the event that the student selected is a male student and let E2 be the
event that he is married student. We are to determine p(E2|E1).
50
From the table, we see that 𝑝 𝐸2 𝐸1 = =
610
0.0820.
50
𝑝(𝐸1 ∩𝐸2 ) 930 50
Or 𝑝 𝐸2 𝐸1 = = 610 = = 0.0820.
𝑝(𝐸1 ) 610
930

(b). Let U be the event that the selected student is unmarried and F be the event
that the student is a female student. We are to determine p(F|U).
240
From the table, we see that 𝑝 𝐹 𝑈 = =
800
0.3.
240
𝑝(𝑈∩𝐹) 930 240
Or 𝑝 𝐹 𝑈 = = 800 = = 0.3.
𝑝(𝑈) 800
930
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 7

Example4.
In the toss of a single fair die, find the probability (i) of getting a 1, given the
occurrence of an odd number. (ii). Of getting a 2, given that a prime number has
occurred.
Solution
(i). Let A represents getting an odd number {1, 3, 5}and B represents getting a 1
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑑𝑑 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 = 1 6, 𝑃 𝐴 = 3 6
𝑃(𝐵∩𝐴) 1 1
𝑃 𝐵𝐴 = =36=
𝑃(𝐴) 6 3
(ii). Let A represents getting a prime number{2, 3, 5} and B represents getting a 2
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 = 1 6, 𝑃 𝐴 = 3 6
𝑃(𝐵∩𝐴) 1 1
6
𝑃 𝐵𝐴 = =3 =
𝑃(𝐴) 6 3
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Exercise.
1. There are two boxes labeled I and II. Box I contains 3 green and 4 red balls. Box
II contains 9 green and 5 red balls. A box is drawn at random and then a ball is drawn
from the box chosen. What is the probability that
(i). the ball drawn is red and box selected is II.
(ii). the ball drawn is green and box selected is II.
(iii). the ball drawn is red and box selected is I.
(iv). the ball drawn is green and box selected is I.

2. A coin is tossed thrice. Find the probability that there are two heads
(i). Given that the first is a tail (ii). Given that at least one is a tail.
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Tree Diagrams
This is a useful device in probability, which is used to enumerate all possible
outcomes of a sequence of experiment where each experiment can occur in a finite
number of ways. The diagram is built up in stages; where each stage is about one
activity.
Example: The probability that Jasper passes MAT410 is 3/8. If he fails, the
probability he passes next time is 7/8.
i) Represent this with a tree diagram.
ii) Find the probability that he passes on his third attempt. (Ans=0.0684)
 10
Bayes Theorem.
It is an extension of the conditional probability which is centered around observing
two events in one outcome.

If the events 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , … … … 𝐴𝑛 form a partition of the sample space S and B is any

other event of S such that it can occur only if one of the A i occurs, then for any i;

P( Ai  B) P( Ai ).P( B / Ai )
P( Ai / B) = = n

 P( A ).P( B / A )
P( B)
i i
i =1

𝐴1 . 𝐴2 , … … … 𝐴𝑛 be the set of mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive events

n
of a sample space S such that P( B)  0, P( B) =  P( Ai ).P( B / Ai ) is called total
i =1

probability.

Example1: The total output of a factory is 30% produced by workshop A and 70%
by workshop B. On the average, 12 components out of 1000 produced in A are
defective and 8 out 1000 produced in workshop B are defective if an item drawn
at random from the whole output is defective.
a) What is the probability that it is defective?
b) What is the probability that it is defective and comes from workshop A?
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Solution
The Tree diagram

Let D be the event that an item is defective

i. P( D) = P( A).P( D / A) + P( B).P( D / B)
=0.3(0.012)+0.7(0.008)=0.0092
P ( A  D) P( A).P( D / A) 0.3(0.012)
ii.P( A / D) = = = = 0.3913
P ( D) P ( D) 0.0092
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Example 2.
In a research conducted in a firm of 65% of male and the rest are female. The
result shows that 25% of the male workers and 18% of the female workers resume
late to duty. The manager is interested in knowing the probability that a worker
observed coming late is:
(i). A male (ii) Not a male.
Solution
𝑃 𝑀 = 0.65, 𝑃 𝐹 = 0.35, 𝑃 𝐴 𝑀 = 0.25, 𝑃 𝐴 𝐹 = 0.18
𝑝 𝑀 𝑝(𝐴|𝑀)
(i). 𝑝𝑀𝐴 =
𝑝 𝑀 𝑝 𝐴𝑀 +𝑝 𝐹 𝑝(𝐴|𝐹)
0.65×0.25
𝑝𝑀𝐴 = = 0.72
0.65×0.25 +(0.35×0.18)
𝑝 𝐹 𝑝(𝐴|𝐹)
(ii). 𝑝𝐹𝐴 =
𝑝 𝑀 𝑝 𝐴𝑀 +𝑝 𝐹 𝑝(𝐴|𝐹)
0.35×0.18
𝑝𝐹𝐴 = = 0.28
0.65×0.25 +(0.35×0.18)
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Class work.
In a certain factory that manufactures Tiger bulb, machines A1, A2, A3 manufacture
40%, 35%, 25% respectively of the total production.
The percentages of defective bulbs are 2, 4 and 5. A bulb is selected at random
from a day’s production and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it
is manufactured by
(a) (i) A1 (ii). A2 (iii). A3 ?
(b). What is the probability of getting a defective bulb in a day production?
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Solution.
Let p((Ai) denote the probability that a bulb is manufactured by a machine Ai.
Let p(D|Ai) denote the probability that a defective bulb comes from machine
Ai :i = 1, 2, 3, ….
40 2
𝑝 𝐴1 = , 𝑝 𝐷 𝐴𝑖 =
100 100
35 4
𝑝 𝐴2 = , 𝑝 𝐷 𝐴2 =
100 100
25 5
𝑝 𝐴3 = , 𝑝 𝐷 𝐴𝑖 =
100 100
(a). (i). The probability that a defective bulb is produced by machine A i is
𝑝 𝐴 1 𝑝(𝐷|𝐴 1 )
𝑝 𝐴1 𝐷 =
𝑝 𝐴1 𝑝 𝐷 𝐴1 +𝑝 𝐴 2 𝑝 𝐷 𝐴2 +𝑝 𝐴 3 𝑝 (𝐷|𝐴 3 )
40 2
×
100 100 80 16
= 40 2 35 4 25 5 = =
× + × + 100 ×100 345 69
100 100 100 100
(a). (ii). The probability that a defective bulb is produced by machine A2 is
𝑝 𝐴 2 𝑝 (𝐷|𝐴 2 )
𝑝 𝐴2 𝐷 =
𝑝 𝐴1 𝑝 𝐷 𝐴1 +𝑝 𝐴 2 𝑝 𝐷 𝐴2 +𝑝 𝐴 3 𝑝 (𝐷|𝐴 3 )
35 4
× 140 28
100 100
= 40 2 35 4 25 5 = =
× + 100 ×100 + 100 ×100 345 69
100 100
(a). (iii). The probability that a defective bulb is produced by machine A 3 is
𝑝 𝐴 3 𝑝 (𝐷|𝐴 3 )
𝑝 𝐴3 𝐷 =
𝑝 𝐴1 𝑝 𝐷 𝐴1 +𝑝 𝐴 2 𝑝 𝐷 𝐴2 +𝑝 𝐴 3 𝑝 (𝐷|𝐴 3 )

25 5
× 125 25
100 100
= 40 2 35 4 25 5 = =
× + × + 100 ×100 345 69
100 100 100 100
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(a). (iii). The probability that a defective bulb is produced by machine A3 is

𝑝 𝐴3 𝑝(𝐷|𝐴3 )
𝑝 𝐴3 𝐷 =
𝑝 𝐴1 𝑝 𝐷 𝐴1 +𝑝 𝐴2 𝑝 𝐷 𝐴2 +𝑝 𝐴3 𝑝(𝐷|𝐴3 )

25 5
× 125 25
100 100
= 40 2 35 4 25 5 = =
× + × + × 345 69
100 100 100 100 100 100

(b). The probability of getting a defective bulb

𝑝(𝐷) = 𝑝 𝐴1 𝑝 𝐷 𝐴1 + 𝑝 𝐴2 𝑝 𝐷 𝐴2 + 𝑝 𝐴3 𝑝(𝐷|𝐴3 )
40 2 35 4 25 5 345 69
= × + × + × = =
100 100 100 100 100 100 10000 2000
 GEC410-
Examples: Conditional Probability Probability and
Statistics

Module 1 Lecture
II
Let M, R, C , and F be certain events with the detail in the
table below:

R C
M 7 5 12
F 3 10 13
10 15 25

Find (i) P(F∩R), (ii)P(R), and(iii)P(F | R)

3 2 3
(i) , (ii) , (iii)
25 5 10

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 GEC410-
Exercise: on Bayes Theorem Probability and
Statistics

Module 1 Lecture
A computer program generates random questions in II
arithmetic that children have to answer within a fixed time.
The probability of the first question being answered correctly
is 0.8. Whenever a question is answered correctly, the next
question generated is more difficult, and the probability of a
correct answer being given is reduced by 0.1. Whenever a
question is answered wrongly, the next question is of the
same standard, and the probability of a correct answer being
given remains unchanged. Find:
a The probability that the second question is answered
correctly.
b The probability that the second question is answered
correctly given that the third question is answered
correctly.
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