Electric

Vehicle
Outlook 2024
June 12, 2024
 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2024
June 12, 2024

Executive summary
Electric vehicle markets around the world are not all traveling in the same direction or at the same
speed in 2024. Sales of EVs continue to rise globally, but some markets are experiencing a
significant slowdown and many automakers have pushed back their EV targets. Progress varies
by segment, with electric commercial vehicles set for another blistering year and segments like
buses and two- and three-wheelers already reaching very high levels of electrification.

Electric vehicles are no longer only a wealthy country phenomenon. Developing economies like
Thailand, India, Turkey, Brazil and others are all experiencing record sales as more low-cost
electric models are targeted at local buyers. Chinese automakers are expanding quickly abroad
as they look for new markets for their EVs.

The transition to a clean transport system is also affected by growing geopolitical tension.
Through strong, long-term planning and support, China has built up a formidable lead in batteries
and the EV supply chain. Europe, the US, India and others are now pushing back against China’s
dominance with efforts to onshore manufacturing jobs and support domestic companies. Tariffs
and further protectionist measures could slow down global EV adoption in the near term.

Policy support for EVs also looks less certain than it did a year ago. Several European
governments slashed subsidies earlier than expected. The resulting slowdown has spurred calls
to relax both the near-term vehicle CO2 targets, and the longer-term plan to phase out internal-
combustion vehicle sales. Progress in the US will depend on the results of the presidential
election later this year, leaving China as the only large auto market that has reached the point of
consumer-led takeoff for EV sales.

Policymakers should not lose sight of long-term goals. While oil demand from transport is set to
peak later this decade, only a couple of Nordic countries, and California, are currently on track for
having a completely zero-emission passenger vehicle fleet by 2050. The rest of the globe is still
lagging behind. The window for achieving net-zero emissions in road transport is closing quickly
and there is no room left for complacency. EVs are still the most cost-effective and commercially
viable route to fully decarbonizing transport.

The underlying technology for electrification continues to improve. Several next-generation battery
technologies are reaching commercialization in the next few years and prices have fallen by 90%
over the past decade. This trend looks set to continue, with early indications that prices are
dropping sharply in 2024 due to lower raw-material prices, manufacturing advances, and
overcapacity. This is good news for automakers and EV buyers but marks a challenging time
ahead for new entrants to the battery industry.

Electrification is not the only vector of change in road transport. Shared mobility, vehicle
connectivity and, eventually, autonomous vehicles are also set to reshape automotive and freight
markets around the world in the decades ahead.

Against this increasingly complex backdrop, we are proud to present our 2024 Electric Vehicle
Outlook, which examines each of the trends outlined above, and provides two updated scenarios
for the future of road transport, drawing on BNEF's team of sectoral and regional experts around
the world. Our Economic Transition Scenario describes how current techno-economic trends are
expected to drive the EV transition, while the Net Zero Scenario examines what a path to a zero-
emission global road fleet by 2050 could look like.

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This report includes analysis on EV adoption in passenger vehicles, commercial vans and trucks,
two- and three-wheeled vehicles and buses globally. It also looks at other drivetrains, including
hybrids, natural gas and fuel cells, and then explores the resulting impacts of all of these on
electricity markets, oil demand, battery materials, charging infrastructure and CO2 emissions.

The key findings are as follows:

• The EV sales growth slowdown is real, but it is not the same everywhere in the world.
Countries like China, India and France are still showing healthy growth, but the latest data for
Germany, Italy and the US is more concerning. In Japan, lack of EV commitment from the
major domestic car makers, as well as no new models in the mini-car segment (kei-car) are
holding the market back. Still, some slow-down was expected and the global growth rate in
2024 is broadly in line with BNEF forecasts from previous years.

Figure 1: Passenger EV sales year-on-year change in select countries, 1Q 2024

Italy -24%
Japan -9%
Germany -3%
Spain 3%
US 4%
UK 13%
France 20%
China 37%
India 39%
-35% -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45%
Source: BloombergNEF, MarkLines, Jato Dynamics. Note: Includes battery electric vehicles and
plug-in hybrids.

• More automakers are softening previous electrification targets. Since 2023, several
automakers – including Tesla, Mercedes-Benz, General Motors and Ford – have made cuts
to their near-term goals for electric vehicles, often quoting their inability to manufacture EVs
at as low a cost as internal-combustion cars. Yet, some automakers are holding their ground
and achieving results. Kia, for example, targets all-electric vehicle sales of 1.6 million by
2030, or around 37% of the automaker’s total sales. Against the slow-down rhetoric, the
company is set to launch an affordable, all-electric SUV – the EV3 – later this year. At Volvo,
global sales of electrified models (BEV and PHEVs) in April 2024 increased 53% compared
with the same period last year, making up nearly half of all sales that month, according to a
company statement. The newly released all electric compact SUV – the Volvo EX30 – was
the driving force behind the year-on-year increase of 75% in the automaker’s EV sales in
Europe in April. Chinese automakers also continue to do well with their EV sales. A big gap is
emerging between the automakers that are successful on EVs, and those that are not.
• Global passenger EV sales continue to grow in the next few years, but the growth rate
is visibly slower than before. EV sales are set to rise from 13.9 million in 2023 to over 30
million in 2027 in our Economic Transition Scenario. In the next four years, electric car sales
grow at an average of 21% per year, compared to the average of 61% between 2020 and
2023. The EV share of global new passenger vehicle sales jumps to 33% in 2027, from
17.8% in 2023. Only China (60%) and Europe (41%) are above that global average by then,
but some European car markets move even faster, with the Nordics at 90% and Germany,
the UK, and France all well above 40%. In the US, EV market jitters inflamed by the

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 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2024
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upcoming presidential elections helped slow down adoption this year, and by 2027 only 29%
of cars sold in the country are electric. Japan significantly lags other wealthy countries.
Still, the underlying technology for EVs continues to get better and cheaper, with many new,
lower-cost EV models set for launch in the next few years. Some of the fastest growth rates
are in emerging economies, with EV sales set to quintuple in Brazil by 2027 and triple in
India. The fleet of electric cars grows fast, rising to over 132 million by 2027, from 41 million
passenger EVs on the road at the end of 2023.

Figure 2: Global near-term passenger EV sales and share of new passenger vehicle sales by market
Million
35 70%
30.2
30 60%
25.1
25 20.9 50%
20 16.6 40%
13.9
15 30%
10.4
10 6.5 20%
3.2 10%
5 1.1 2.0 2.2
0 0%
2017 19 21 23 25 27 2017 19 21 23 25 27

China Europe US Japan Canada South Korea Southeast Asia Australia India Brazil Rest of World Global
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Europe includes the EU, the UK and EFTA countries. EV includes BEVs and PHEVs.

• Sales of internal combustion vehicles have peaked and the fleet peaks soon. Sales of
internal combustion vehicles peaked in 2017. By 2027, sales of internal combustion vehicles
are set to be 29% below their 2017 peak. The internal combustion vehicle fleet peaks in
2025. Hybrids experienced growing sales in 2023 in specific locations and segments of the
passenger-vehicle market. Our economic analysis indicates that electric vehicles will be the
primary method of decarbonizing road transport, however, hybrids can play a meaningful role.
In Europe, the US, China, Japan and South Korea, we expect full hybrid sales to surpass 15
million units annually by 2030. Adoption rates can range between 20% and close to 50% in
different markets. The main support for further hybrid penetration comes from the increasingly
stringent fuel-efficiency rules. In the absence of those, we would expect relatively low
passenger hybrid-vehicle sales, close to current levels in most markets.
• Our long-term outlook for EVs remains bright, despite near-term challenges. Improving
economics of electric vehicles underpin the continued long-term growth in EV adoption. EVs
reach 45% of global passenger-vehicle sales by 2030 and 73% by 2040 in BNEF’s Economic
Transition Scenario. Despite great progress and a steep growth trajectory, Southeast Asia,
India and Brazil are still below the global average adoption by then. A stronger regulatory
push is needed in these markets to help bridge the gap with the more developed EV markets.
Still, by 2040 the three regions represent 15% of the global EV market, up from just 2% in
2023 and 4% in 2030.
While EV sales exhibit a traditional ‘S-curve’ for adoption, each country and region starts on
this trajectory at different times. The varied start time and slowdown points between countries
mean that the global average appears more linear than any individual country.
Despite rapid EV adoption, less than 50% of the global passenger-vehicle fleet is set to be
electric by 2040.

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Figure 3: Global long-term passenger EV sales by market – Figure 4: Global long-term EV share of passenger vehicle
Economic Transition Scenario fleet by market – Economic Transition Scenario
Million
Rest of World 90% Nordics
80
Brazil UK
70 80% China
Southeast Asia Germany
70%
60 Canada
Australia South Korea
60%
50 US
South Korea
50% France
40 India Australia
40% Global
30 Japan Japan
30%
Canada Rest of Europe
20
20% Italy
US Southeast Asia
10
10% India
Europe Brazil
0 0%
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 China Rest of World
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Source: BloombergNEF Source: BloombergNEF

• The decarbonization of the commercial vehicle sector – including vans, trucks and
buses – has already started and is set to accelerate. The pace of zero-emission vehicle
adoption differs across countries and segments: sales of electric light-duty delivery vans and
trucks are spreading fast in China, South Korea, and several European countries, while sales
in the US are weak for now. Still, on the back of good economics, the global e-van market
approaches one third of sales by 2030 and two-thirds by 2040 (Figure 5).
• Electric heavy trucks become economically viable for most use cases by 2030. In
heavier segments, battery electric trucks are mostly used in urban duty cycles initially. But
their economics improve even for long-haul routes and around 2030 approach those of diesel
powertrains. Fuel cell trucks remain a viable option for some duty cycles and in some
countries, but their outlook is far less certain. Zero-emission technologies account for 18% of
global truck sales by 2030, reaching 43% by 2040 (Figure 5).
• New environmental policies are set to alter technology choices among truck makers.
Zero-emission powertrains are currently only slowly adopted within medium- and heavy-duty
trucks. Still, newly enacted greenhouse gas rules in Europe and the US will push
manufacturers to develop and sell large volumes of electric and fuel-cell trucks. The EU’s
CO2 emissions targets imply high rates of electrification even by 2030. Municipal buses
continue to electrify at a rapid pace and exceed 60% of sales already by 2030, reaching 83%
by 2040.
• Global road transport is still not on a net-zero trajectory, and protectionist policies risk
knocking it further off course. For the world to achieve a completely zero-emission vehicle
fleet by 2050, sales of combustion vehicles need to stop around 2038 in our Net Zero
Scenario, with leading markets phasing out combustion in the early 2030s. In the Economic
Transition Scenario, only the Nordic countries reach a full phase-out of combustion vehicles
before 2038.
As more countries implement industrial strategies to capture value from the transition, there is
a risk of some of these slowing adoption and climate goals falling further out of reach.
Governments will need to carefully weigh up competing priorities and avoid policies that

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 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2024
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reduce competition or access to affordable EVs. The gap between BNEF’s Economic
Transition Scenario and the Net Zero Scenario is still significant and the need for a stronger
regulatory push has not waned since the previous outlook.

Figure 5: Electric and fuel cell commercial van, truck, and bus sales near-term sales
outlook – Economic Transition Scenario
Light-duty Medium- and heavy-duty
Million Million
20 3.5
43% of total sales
67% of total sales 3.0
15 2.5
33% of total sales 18% of total sales
2.0
10
1.5

5 1.0
0.5
0 0.0
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Source: BloombergNEF, government agencies, China Automotive Technology and Research
Center, EV-Volumes, Japan Automobile Dealers Association (JADA). Note: Electric vehicles
include battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.

• Only the three-wheeled vehicle segment is on track to achieve a zero-emission fleet by

2050 without additional policy intervention. Two- and three-wheeled vehicle sales
continue to rise in emerging economies and electric sales are set to exceed 90% globally by
2040. Over 40% of two-wheelers and over 80% of the three-wheelers sold in 2023 were
electric, leaving the latter as the only vehicle segment currently on track to achieve a net-zero
fleet by 2050.

Table 1: Road transport segment progress toward net zero

Segment Current share of Current Zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) Level of policy intervention
road transport estimated fleet share in 2050 – Economic needed to hit Net Zero Scenario
CO2 emissions global fleet size Transition Scenario (100% ZEV share) by 2050
Three-wheeled <1% 120 million 95% On track
vehicles

Two-wheeled 5% 1.1 billion 80% Almost on track: minor additional

vehicles measures needed
Municipal buses 1% 3.4 million 86% Almost on track: minor additional
measures needed
Light commercial 11% 170 million 77% Positive trajectory: moderate
vehicles additional measures needed
Passenger vehicles 53% 1.3 billion 69% Positive trajectory: moderate
additional measures needed
Medium + heavy 30% 83 million 28% Not on track: strong additional
commercial vehicles measures needed urgently
Source: BloombergNEF, various government sources. Note: Fleet size represents vehicles of all drivetrain types and are estimates
based on various sources and BNEF data. Some values rounded. Current emissions and fleet size data are for 2023.

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 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2024
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• Massive spending is required in both scenarios. The cumulative value of EV sales across
all segments hits $9 trillion by 2030 and $63 trillion by 2050 in the Economic Transition
Scenario. This jumps to over $98 trillion by 2050 in the Net Zero Scenario. There is already
fierce competition among governments to ensure the development of local supply chains.
EVs and batteries will remain a central part of many countries’ industrial policy over the
coming decades.

Figure 6: Estimated global EV market opportunity by 2050 – Economic Transition Scenario vs. Net Zero Scenario

ETS NZS

6% 6%

20%
23%

$63 trillion $98 trillion

71% 74%

Passenger EVs Commercial0% EVs and e-buses Electric two- and three-wheelers
$9.7 trillion
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Includes battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric passenger and commercial vehicles, battery
electric buses and electric two- and three-wheelers. Estimates are cumulative, spending starts in 2024. Dollars are in real 2023.
‘ETS’ is Economic Transition Scenario, and ‘NZS’ is Net Zero Scenario.

• Large investments are needed in all areas of the battery supply chain, though planned
investment would be more than enough should it materialize. Annual lithium-battery
demand grows rapidly in our Economic Transition Scenario, approaching 5.9 terawatt-hours
annually by 2035. Meeting this demand requires large but achievable increases in materials,
components, and cell production. At least $35 billion needs to be invested in battery-cell and
component plants by the end of the decade, which is easily exceeded by the $155 billion
already planned by companies (Figure 7). Over-investment is most apparent in battery-cell
manufacturing, where planned lithium-ion cell manufacturing capacity by the end of 2025 is
over five times the 1.5TWh global battery demand expected that year. Overcapacity is a big
issue for battery makers, especially as many have ambitious plans to expand.
Under BNEF’s Net Zero Scenario, new demand for lithium-ion batteries from transport is 1.7
times that of our Economic Transition Scenario and reaches 218TWh cumulatively by 2050.
New technologies that lower the footprint of resource extraction will become important, so will
recycling. In lithium, for example, direct lithium extraction technologies could significantly
lower the water and land-use in the extraction process, while improving metal recovery.

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Figure 7: Annual battery factory investment by scenario Figure 8: Lithium-ion battery cell manufacturing
overcapacity ratio from 2022 to 2030, based on current
announcements

$ billion 155 800% China

Separators
700%
Electrolytes 600% Global
77 500%
64 Europe
Cathodes 400%
35 300% Rest of
Anodes World
200%
US
Battery cells 100%
2023 2024-30 2024-30 2024-30 0% South
Actual Planned - ETS - NZS - -100% Korea
yearly yearly yearly 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: ‘ETS’ is Economic Transition
Future Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Overcapacity ratio based on the
Scenario. ‘NZS’ is Net Zero Scenario. Battery factory manufacturing capacity over the same year’s demand. Demand
requirements include investment needed to meet EV and is based on BNEF’s EVO 2024. Nameplate manufacturing
stationary energy storage demand. Planned investment based capacity as of May 9, 2024, not de-risked.
on company factory announcements benchmarked by respective
regional capex. ETS and NZS based on China capex estimates.

• Lithium-iron-phosphate batteries are taking over the EV market, reducing the expected
need for metals like nickel and manganese. Fiercely competitive pricing strategies
continue to put pressure on battery technology improvement. Improvements in lithium-iron-
phosphate (LFP) technology, including super-fast-charging capabilities, cold temperature
performance and higher energy densities, are increasing its market share, particularly in
China, where many of the companies making LFP cells are based. LFP reaches over 50% of
the global passenger EV market within the next two years. Nickel and manganese are among
the biggest losers from the advancements in LFP batteries. Nickel consumption in lithium-ion
batteries reaches 517,000 metric tons in 2025, while manganese reaches 131,000 metric
tons. These are 25% and 38% lower than our previous estimates in EVO 2023 for nickel and
manganese, respectively, due to the shift toward lower-cost chemistries.

Figure 9: Annual metals demand from lithium-ion batteries under the Net Zero Scenario

Million metric tons

50 Cobalt
Manganese
40
Phosphorus
30 Iron
Graphite
20
Nickel
Lithium
10
Aluminum
0 Copper
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Lithium is expressed in million metric tons lithium carbonate
equivalent (LCE). Note: Demand occurs at the mine mouth, one year before battery demand.

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 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2024
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• With 83 million electric cars, trucks, and buses on the road next year, and over 340
million electric two- and three-wheelers, oil demand displacement from EVs starts to
ramp up. In the next three years oil demand displaced by electric and fuel-cell vehicles of all
types more than doubles from today, to almost 4 million barrels per day by 2027. This is
slightly more than the volume Japan consumed in 2022.
Rapid uptake of electric and fuel-cell vehicles across all segments drives the arrival of peak
road fuel demand by 2027. Without EVs and fuel-cell vehicles, road fuel consumption would
continue to grow until 2041 (Figure 10).

Figure 10: Year-on-year road fuel demand growth avoided by electric and fuel cell vehicles
Million barrrels per day
2
2041: Peak without EVs
and fuel cell vehicles
1

0
2027: Peak with EVs
and fuel cell vehicles
-1

-2
2023 2030 2035 2040
Growth avoided by EVs and fuel cell vehicles
With no EVs or fuel cell vehicles
ETS
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Includes biofuels. Alternative drivetrains include electric, fuel cell
and natural gas vehicles. ETS is BNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario.

• A fully electric global fleet could consume twice the amount of electricity as the US did
in 2023. By 2050, in the Net Zero Scenario, some 8,313TWh of electricity is needed to
power an all-electric vehicle fleet, double the amount of electricity consumed in the US in
2023. This drops to 5,290TWh in the ETS, and the demand accounts for between 11% and
12% of the global total in 2050, depending on the scenario. Despite the large growth in
electricity demand, electric vehicles can aid the electrification of the energy system through
smart charging, as grid operators apply variable pricing and other mechanisms to incentivize
flexibility. The cost to upgrade the grid for EVs peaks at around 16% of annual grid
expenditure in the mid-2030s in the ETS, before dropping soon after. The expenditure is
equivalent to just $100 per battery electric vehicle in 2040.
To supply all that electricity demand, the charging industry will need to mature rapidly over
the next decade, creating opportunities for charging operators, manufacturers and
developers. Between $1.6 trillion and $2.5 trillion in cumulative investment is required in
charging infrastructure, installation, and maintenance by 2050, depending on the scenario.
The size and distribution of power within the charging network is highly dependent on the
assumed consumer charging preferences, business models and the prevalence of faster
charging technology.

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Figure 11: Electricity demand outlook for selected regions by scenario

Global China US
ETS NZS ETS NZS ETS NZS
Terawatt hours Terawatt hours Terawatt hours
80,000 24,000 8% 12,000
11%
13%
60,000 18,000 9,000
11%
12% 18%
40,000 12,000 6,000

20,000 6,000 3,000

0 0 0
2020 2050 2020 2050 2020 2050 2020 2050 2020 2050 2020 2050

Europe South Korea India

ETS NZS ETS NZS ETS NZS
Terawatt hours Terawatt hours Terawatt hours
8,000 14% 1,200 10,000
10% 7%
6,000 12% 7,500
900
20%
4,000 600 5,000 7%

2,000 300 2,500

0 0 0
2020 2050 2020 2050 2020 2050 2020 2050 2020 2050 2020 2050

General demand Electric vehicle electricity demand

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Uses general electricity demand projections from BNEF’s New Energy Outlook 2024. This is the
final energy consumption and excludes any losses in transmission. EV electricity demand includes demand from passenger EVs,
commercial EVs, e-buses and electric two- and three-wheelers. Percentages refer to percentage of EV electricity demand of total in
2050.

• This year’s EV Outlook includes three new Thematic Highlights, each of which explores a
different part of the transition in vehicle markets around the world. The topics are:
– The return of plug-in hybrids
– EV driving distances are higher than expected
– China’s low-cost battery push
• Plug-in hybrids are making a comeback, but it is still unclear whether it is a temporary
trend, or if PHEVs will remain an integral part of the transition for longer. The faster uptake of
PHEVs is largely driven by China, which overtook Europe as the largest PHEV market in
2022 amid an influx of affordable models from automakers like BYD and Li Auto.
The average electric range of PHEVs is rising and hit 80km in 2023, with some in China
pushing well above 100km. PHEV battery pack sizes in China are almost twice the size of
those deployed in the US and Europe, many of which were designed primarily to comply with
fuel economy regulations.
Although considered a bridge technology toward a zero-emission future, putting too much
faith in plug-in hybrids comes with risks attached. Our meta-analysis of studies on the share
of kilometers driven in electric mode by PHEVs shows a range of 11% to 54% depending on
the country and owner type. If PHEVs are displacing BEV sales and are not utilizing their full
electric driving potential, they add to oil demand in our analysis.

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Figure 12: Global oil demand in the ETS and how it changes depending on the various
PHEV adoption and electric-mode utilization scenarios
Million barrels per day % difference from the ETS
30 25%
25 20%
20
15% ETS
15
10% Scenario 3
10
5% Scenario 1
5
0% Scenario 2
0
-5 -5%
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: “Scenario 1” corresponds to high PHEV adoption, “Scenario 2”
corresponds to high PHEV utilization and “Scenario 3” corresponds to high PHEV adoption and
low PHEV utilization scenario.

• Electric vehicle usage is on the rise. In markets where EVs are developing an early
foothold there is a growing body of evidence that they are winning over the most active
drivers and are racking up more kilometers on an annual basis than ICE vehicles. In China
and the Netherlands, the trend is particularly strong, with BEVs traveling 66% and 56% more
than ICE vehicles, respectively. There is significant variation between geography and
drivetrain. In the US, BEVs are driven about 40% less than ICE cars, and the mileage of
PHEVs is 5% less. However, the standout EV adoption state in the US – California – has EV
usage numbers that are closer to what can be observed in markets like Sweden.

Figure 13: Difference in annual vehicle kilometers traveled compared to internal

combustion engine vehicles by drivetrain and market

66%
China
14%
56%
Netherlands
48%
40%
Norway
42%
15%
Sweden
34%
Battery-electric
14%
Canada
8%
8% Plug-in hybrid
California
26%
-38%
US
-5%
Source: BloombergNEF, National Big Data Alliance of New Energy Vehicles of China, Statistics
Norway, Statistics Sweden, Statistics Netherlands, George Washington University, UC Davis,
news reports. Note: Latest data available. California data is from a UC Davis study published in
2020. US data is from a study by George Washington University published in 2023. US data
includes all states.

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Automakers have an opportunity to shape their product portfolio to appeal to high-mileage

drivers. High usage of EVs among working drivers is a strong signal that these vehicles are in
demand. In some instances, automakers may need to tailor their vehicles to specific use
cases. For example, Roewe vehicles, which are popular with ride-hailing drivers in China,
have a lower range than many other EVs, but are offered at upfront price points that are
attractive to ride-hailing drivers.
• China’s batteries are incredibly cheap. While battery-cell manufacturing overcapacity is a
phenomenon globally, it is most acute in China and is a major factor driving prices lower. In
the domestic market, EV lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) cell prices have averaged $53/kWh
between January and April 2024, a 44% year-on-year drop (Figure 14). Planned battery
production capacity in China is almost seven times demand by 2026. Sustained low prices
could lead to an additional 23.9 million EVs being sold in China between 2024 and 2035,
according to our scenario analysis. This averages 2 million additional BEVs and PHEVs per
year over the next decade (Figure 15). That uptick, however, is not enough on its own to
solve China’s overcapacity. Actual excess supply will be lower due to varying utilization rates,
commissioning delays and abandonments, but fierce competition is a trend that is likely to
remain in the next couple of years, if raw material prices remain low.
Although low battery prices are a boon for demand, they put a strain on governments and
automakers outside China that are seeking to localize their respective supply chains.

Figure 14: Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery cell prices Figure 15: China EV sales by battery price scenario

$/kilowatt-hour
Million EVs
95 30

25
Additional EV
20 sales from low
53 battery prices
15

10 Base-case
(ETS)
5

2023 2024 0
BNEF global average China year-to-date 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034
Source: BloombergNEF, ICC Battery. Note: 2023 price from Source: BloombergNEF. Note: The base-case uses
BNEF’s Lithium-ion Battery Price Survey. 2024 price from Jan- BloombergNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario (ETS) with
Apr from ICC Battery. battery prices from the BNEF’s 2023 Lithium-Ion Battery Price
Survey, the low-price scenario uses the same proprietary
modeling with battery price data from ICC Battery averaged over
January to April 2024 for the 2024 price and then the same year-
on-year decreases expected in the price survey’s long-term
outlook.

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 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2024
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Report contents

Section 1. Executive summary 1

Section 2. Introduction 13
2.1. What’s new in EVO 2024 13
2.2. Scenarios and outlooks at BloombergNEF 14
2.3. Summary recommendations for policy makers 15
Section 3. Road transport today 30
3.1. The EV market today 32
3.2. Current battery demand, prices and capacity 36
3.3. EV charging infrastructure 38
3.4. Automaker commitments to EVs 42
Section 4. Global passenger vehicle outlook 47
4.1. Vehicle sales and EV adoption: brief methodology 47
4.2. Global passenger vehicle kilometers, fleet and sales 49
4.3. Passenger EV adoption outlook – Economic Transition Scenario 52
4.4. Passenger EV adoption outlook – Net Zero Scenario 63
4.5. Other drivetrains 68
4.6. Thematic Highlight: The Return of Plug-in Hybrids 73
4.7. Thematic Highlight: EV Driving Distances are Higher than Expected 86
Section 5. Commercial vehicle outlook 98
5.1. Freight demand and the market for commercial vehicles 98
5.2. Near-term outlook for low- and zero-emission commercial vehicles and
buses 100
5.3. Highlights of the switch to clean trucking 103
5.4. Electric commercial vehicle and bus adoption outlook – Economic
Transition Scenario 112
5.5. Commercial EV adoption outlook – Net Zero Scenario 117
Section 6. Two-wheeler outlook 122
6.1. Two-wheeler market today 122
6.2. Total sales and fleet outlook 123
6.3. Electric two-wheeler adoption outlook – Economic Transition Scenario 124
6.4. Electric two-wheeler adoption outlook – Net Zero Scenario 129
Section 7. Three-wheeler outlook 132
7.1. Three-wheeler market today 132
7.2. Total sales and fleet outlook 133
7.3. Electric three-wheeler adoption outlook – Economic Transition Scenario
133
7.4. Electric three-wheeler adoption outlook – Net Zero Scenario 135

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 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2024
June 12, 2024

Section 8. Impacts on batteries and materials 138

8.1. Battery demand: Economic Transition Scenario 138
8.2. Battery pricing and manufacturing outlook 139
8.3. Battery technology outlook 147
8.4. Impact on battery metals supply 157
8.5. Comparison with Net Zero Scenario 161
8.6. Thematic Highlight: China’s Low-Cost Battery Push 166
Section 9. Impacts on oil and electricity demand 177
9.1. Oil demand 177
9.2. Electricity demand 183
Section 10. Charging infrastructure outlook 191
10.1. Global overview 191
10.2. Charging requirements per electric vehicle 195
10.3. Considerations for the outlook 197
10.4. Regional charging infrastructure overview 202
Section 11. Comparison with last year’s outlook 211
Section 12. Full methodology 217
12.1. Passenger vehicles 217
12.2. Commercial vehicles 228
12.3. Two- and three-wheelers 232
12.4. Buses 233
12.5. Charging infrastructure 233

Appendices 239
Appendix A. Glossary 239
Appendix B. National internal combustion vehicle phase-out targets 240
Appendix C. Country and segment outlook coverage 241
Appendix D. Drive cycle definitions and market segmentation for commercial vehicles 243
Appendix E. Two- and three-wheeler vehicle definitions 245
Appendix F. Total cost of ownership assumptions for plug-in hybrid thematic highlight 247
Appendix G. Table of figures 248
Appendix H. Table of tables 260

About us 262

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 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2024
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About us
Contact details

Client enquiries:
• Bloomberg Terminal: press <Help> key twice
• Email: [email protected]

Colin McKerracher Lead author

Aleksandra O’Donovan Passenger vehicles

Dr. Nikolas Soulopoulos Commercial vehicles and freight

Andrew Grant Modeling and shared mobility

Jinghong Lyu Modeling and shared mobility

Siyi Mi Two and three wheelers

David Doherty Oil

Ryan Fisher Charging infrastructure and electricity demand

Corey Cantor Vehicle economics

Maynie Yang Commercial vehicles and buses

Dr. Kwasi Ampofo Metals and mining

Yayoi Sekine Batteries

Dr. Andy Leach Batteries

Evelina Stoikou Batteries

Jiayan Shi Batteries

Peng Xu Metals and mining

Luxi Hong Oil

Madeleine Brolly Charging infrastructure

Siong-Hu Wong Data management

Komal Kareer India and Southeast Asia

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 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2024
June 12, 2024

Leonard Quong Australia

Vinicius Nunes Brazil

Takehiro Kawahara Japan

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