Climatescope 2023

Power Transition Factbook

Power Transition Factbook
Maria Eugenia Mitri
Maria Eugênia Mitri
Sofia Maia
Sofia Maia
AnaAna
Paula Fonseca
Paula FonsecaTeixeira
Teixeira
Laura Foroni
Laura Foroni

NOVEMBER 2023
Table of Contents
01. Executive summary 2

02. About Climatescope 7

03. Power sector 9

04. Transport trends 49

05. Electrified heating 60

06. Results: Power sector 66

1 November 29, 2023

01.
Executive summary
2 November 29, 2023
Executive summary
Renewables are gaining traction around the globe, with investment in new Share of emerging markets’ power
projects cracking half a trillion dollars for the first time last year. Wind and solar, 75% capacity additions that came from solar
in 2022
which accounted for 80% of new power generating capacity installed in 2022,
now make up an eighth of global generation and more than a quarter of overall
capacity.
$560 billion Global funding for renewable energy
projects in 2022, a record high
Share of surveyed emerging markets
Those are just some of the key findings of the 12th edition of Climatescope, 93% that have renewable energy targets in
force
BloombergNEF’s annual assessment of individual markets’ progress in the energy
transition. This is the third year the project has covered not only the power sector but Share of global power capacity additions, by
transportation and buildings as well. technology
100%
Climatescope represents the collective efforts of over 50 BNEF analysts. Each year, 90% 4% 4%
7% 13% 14% 16% 18% 19%
these researchers gather detailed data on 140 markets across the globe, including 110 80% 17% 20%
15% 26% 39%
emerging economies and 30 developed ones. This year, Montenegro, Bahrain, Iceland 36% 42% 45% 49%
70% 18% 20% 13% 59%
19%
16% 13% 12% 22%
and Venezuela were added to the list. The resulting report assesses macro-level 60%
14% 15% 18% 18%
energy transition trends and scores individual markets based on their attractiveness for 50% 14%
10% 20% 17%
24% 26% 29%
receiving clean energy capital. 40% 15% 12% 22%
20% 6% 31% 27%
22% 17% 5%
23%
Other conclusions from the 2023 edition of Climatescope include: 30%
14% 4% 21%
20% 19% 23% 10%
Zero-carbon electricity technologies – including wind, solar, hydropower and 32% 30% 28% 33% 7% 7%
5%
10% 23% 27% 22% 27% 21%
nuclear – have now reached 46% of global installed power capacity, up from 33% 14% 10% 16%
10% 14% 5%
7%
0% 4%
in 2012.

2008

2009

2010

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019
2011

2012

2013

2014

2020

2021

2022
• Meanwhile, fossil fuels’ share of new build capacity slumped to the lowest level ever Coal Natural gas Hydro
Wind Solar Nuclear
in 2022, at just 13%, compared to 50% in 2013. Even a resurgence in coal power Oil and diesel Biomass and waste Other - fossil
additions couldn’t halt the slide. Source: BloombergNEF

3 November 29, 2023

Executive summary (2)
• Global investment in renewable energy projects hit a record $560 billion in 2022, with small-scale photovoltaic solar accounting for over a fifth of
the total. Successful net-metering policies and tax incentives have fueled the sector’s meteoric rise, which attracted twice as much investment in
2022 as two years prior.
• Utility-scale solar also had a banner year, accounting for 41% of renewable energy investment last year, beating out wind, which received 36% of
the total.
Emerging markets are becoming increasingly important players in the clean-power space. Of the 341 gigawatts of new wind and solar
additions in 2022, some 222 gigawatts were added in developing economies.
• In most emerging markets, levelized costs of electricity for solar and wind – the long-term offtake price that a power plant needs to break even –
have fallen dramatically. That means new solar and wind projects can now build more capacity with less investment.
• Out of the 110 emerging markets surveyed in this report, a record 74 had at least 1 megawatt of solar capacity installed last year, compared to just
30 markets a decade ago.
• In line with broader global trends, fossil-fuel additions in emerging markets fell to a record low in 2022.
• Yet, investment remains concentrated in a handful of emerging economies. Just 15 markets attracted 86% of the $81 billion in clean-energy
investments that were directed toward emerging economies (excluding mainland China) last year. Brazil alone received $25 billion, followed by
$12 billion for India and $6 billion for South Africa. The list of the top developing-market recipients of clean-energy investment remains essentially
unchanged over the past five years.
Of the emerging markets surveyed by Climatescope, 93% have renewable energy targets in force. But most still face an uphill battle to
achieve these targets.
• Around 60% of emerging markets with a clean energy target have yet to meet even the half-way mark of their ambitions, even though most of
these goals are due in 2030.

4 November 29, 2023

Executive summary (3)
• While these markets have improved their policy books over the years, more – and more effective – policies must still be adopted. Net metering,
which is now present in 59% of the emerging markets surveyed, is the policy type that has seen the greatest growth since 2021.
• Policy is now particularly relevant as world leaders have expressed interest in tripling global installed renewable energy capacity by 2030.
According to BNEF’s report Tripling Global Renewables by 2030 (web | terminal), scaling up the right mix of technologies will require measures
that address barriers to access, enable competitive auctions and encourage corporate power purchase agreements.
India has been among the top five most attractive emerging markets for renewable energy investment since 2018, and this year it returned
to the highest position in Climatescope’s ranking of developing economies. Its ambitious policy framework and extremely competitive
renewable energy market have attracted around $47 billion of clean energy investment over the past five years.
• Mainland China, which continues to play a key role in the global clean energy story, ranked second this year among emerging markets, having
accounted for 52% of global investment in 2022. It presents a wealth of opportunities for the global energy transition, since it is estimated that by
2030, some 35% of the world’s installed solar capacity and 50% of wind will be located in the giant Asian market. Chile, which last year stood atop
the podium, comes in third, with its well-established clean energy policies, bold targets and overall commitment to greening its grid keeping it in the
top three.
• Fourth place goes to the Philippines, which appears in the top-five list for the first time thanks to its auctions, feed-in tariffs, net-metering schemes,
tax incentives and strong targets for renewable energy. Brazil, where the small-scale segment is the main driver of clean energy deployment,
comes in fifth.
Global passenger electric vehicle sales hit 10.3 million units in 2022, nearly doubling from 2021. In just six years, the share of EVs in total
passenger vehicle sales has jumped more than 10-fold, from 1.4% in 2017 to 15% in 2022.
• The 6.1 million EVs sold in mainland China accounted for 60% of the global total in 2022 and nearly 96% of sales in emerging markets. Its
cumulative EV sales since 2017 now stand at 13 million, some 4.5 million more than the top 10 developed markets for EVs combined.

5 November 29, 2023

Executive summary (4)
• Other emerging markets represent a tiny share of total global EV sales, but their progress should not be overlooked. In 2021, these markets
accounted for just 3% of global EV sales, but the number of units sold has nearly doubled for each of the past two years.
Electrified heating has gained considerable popularity over the past decade, although sales of heat pumps stalled in 2022, rising only 1%
year-on-year, compared to a 7% average compound annual growth rate over the past decade.
• Heat pump demand remains dependent on subsidies or other consumer support mechanisms due to high upfront costs, and in many markets the
technology struggles to compete with gas-fired boilers.
• Government bans on the purchase of certain types of boilers have increased in recent years. Of the 29 markets surveyed by Climatescope, 15
have legislated bans on boilers for one or more technology.

(This report was corrected post-publication to fix statements on Slide 70 about Chile’s clean energy targets.)

6 November 29, 2023

02.
About Climatescope
7 November 29, 2023
About Climatescope
Climatescope is an online market assessment tool, report and index that
evaluates individual markets’ readiness to put energy transition investment
to work. A deep dive into how surveyed markets are driving the energy
transition, it provides snapshots of current clean energy policy and finance
conditions that can lead to future capital deployment and project
development.

This is the 12th edition of Climatescope, and the project has evolved
significantly since its launch more than a decade ago. It now includes
detailed information on 140 markets, including 110 emerging economies and
30 developed ones. This year, four new markets have been added to the
coverage: Bahrain, Iceland, Montenegro and Venezuela.
Climatescope’s sectoral coverage has also expanded over the years. While
early editions of the report focused on just the power sector, in 2021 we
began including in-depth investment condition data for lower-carbon
transportation and buildings.

The project now encompasses nearly every market in the world*. Developed
markets are defined as OECD countries minus Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica,
Mexico and Turkey. These five are part of the OECD but remain attractive
emerging markets for clean energy development. Developing markets
*For further details on how Climatescope has evolved over the years, please
visit global-climatescope.org/about. Afghanistan, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, include all non-OECD markets, plus these five.
Yemen and Libya are not in the coverage due to local conflicts or international Readers are encouraged to explore the complete rankings, datasets,
sanctions that make them particularly challenging to research. methodology, tools and market profiles on the Climatescope website.

8 November 29, 2023

03.
Power sector
Renewables take the lead
9 November 29, 2023
Wind and solar surpassed 12% of
global generation in 2022
Share of global generation by Share of wind and solar With nearly 3,500 terawatt-hours (TWh) of power
technology generation produced in 2022, wind and solar accounted for a
combined 12.6% of global generation in 2022. Wind’s
4% 5% 14.0% contribution rose to 8%, up from just 4% six years ago,
6% 6% 7%
8% while solar reached nearly 5%, from less than 1.5% in
11% 11% 11% 11% 12.0%
10% 10% 10%
2016. Non-hydro renewables (wind, solar, geothermal and
17% 17% 16% 16% 17% 10.0% biomass) attained 15% of total generation, nearly doubling
16% 15%
their 8% share in 2016.
8.0%
23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%
22%
Zero-carbon technologies accounted for 40% of total
6.0% generation in 2022. Hydro and nuclear represented 15.4%
and 9.5% respectively in 2022, but the relative
4.0% participation of these technologies in the grid has declined
38% 37% 37% 36% 35% 35% 35% over the past decade due to the growing additions of other
2.0%
zero-carbon technologies such as solar and wind.
0.0% Although fossil fuels still dominate global electricity

2014

2016
2010

2012

2018

2020

2022
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 generation, their share is slowly decreasing. Coal, natural
Other - fossil Marine gas, oil and other fossil fuels generated 65% of the world’s
Geothermal Biomass and waste
Oil and diesel Solar
Solar electricity at the beginning of the decade and now
Wind Nuclear Wind represent 59%.
Hydro Natural gas
Wind and solar
Coal
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: ‘Other - fossil’ accounts for plants that use more than one fuel or fuels other than coal, oil, gas, hydro and nuclear. Zero-carbon
technologies consist of renewable sources (solar, wind, geothermal, biomass and small hydro), large hydro and nuclear.

10 November 29, 2023

Renewables led the upsurge in global
generation
Global annual generation by technology Total global power production jumped 3.1% in 2022 in
midst of the economic recovery from Covid-19 and the
Thousand terawatt-hours European energy crisis. Generation rose from 26,700TWh
30 in 2021 to 27,500TWh in 2022, marking a new high.
27.5 Renewables accounted for 75% of the total generation
26.7
25.1 25.7 25.6
24.2 change from 2021 to 2022.
25 23.1 23.7 1.1 1.4
22.0 22.7 2.1
21.7 1.9 Renewables (including large hydro) led the growth in total
1.6
2.7 2.7 2.8 2.6 electricity production, with an 8% jump from 2021 to 2022.
20 2.6 2.6 2.7
2.4 2.5 2.5 Total global renewable generation reached its highest
2.5 4.2
4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2
3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 level ever in 2022, at 8,400TWh, and represented over
15 3.6 3.7
30% of global generation for the first time. Solar
5.8 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.2 accounted for 1,350TWh, and wind 2,100TWh.
5.0 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.6
10
Fossil fuels remain the main source of electricity
generation, at 16,500TWh, or nearly 60% of total power
5 8.6 8.8 9.1 8.9 8.9 9.0 9.3 9.3 8.9 9.4 9.6 demand. Coal generation reached a new record,
generating 9,600TWh in 2022, up 7% compared with
0 2020 and 2% from 2021. Natural gas topped 6,200TWh, a
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 rise of 3% from 2021. Meanwhile, oil generation slid 6% in
Coal Natural gas Hydro Nuclear 2022, compared with a 3% increase from 2020 to 2021.
Wind Solar Biomass and waste Oil and diesel
Other - fossil Geothermal Marine
Source: BloombergNEF. ‘Other – fossil’ accounts for plants that use more than one fuel or fuels other than coal, oil, gas, hydro and nuclear. Renewable
includes wind, solar, biomass and waste, geothermal and hydro technologies.

11 November 29, 2023

Wind and solar generation thrive amid
the global energy crisis
Global year-on-year change in generation Net renewable energy power generation set a record in
2022, led by a particularly strong showing from solar.
Terawatt-hours Three main factors explain renewables becoming the most
1,500 pragmatic option: fast-growing post-pandemic electricity
1,250
demand overall, a jump in coal and natural gas prices, and
lower renewable levelized costs of electricity (LCOEs).
1,000 265
92 126
133 201 243 Although coal generation grew less in 2022 than it did in
750 224 66 2021, it still saw a considerable increase, reaching
94 271
197 95 120 135 233 173 209TWh on a year-on-year change basis. This surge is
500 178
107 115 94 134 168 157
118 79 backed by China, India and Europe. Thanks to energy
250 385 134 326 349 160 76 316 163 451
132 128 140
189 209 security concerns, coal was brought back into power
50 96
0 -105 -79 systems.
-230 -212 -131
-347
-250
-97
-500 -79

-750
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Wind Solar Other - fossil Oil and diesel
Nuclear Natural Gas Hydro Geothermal
Coal Biomass and waste

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Generation change accounts for net generation change. ‘Other – fossil’ accounts for plants that use more than one fuel or fuels other
than coal, oil, gas, hydro and nuclear. Renewables include wind, solar, biomass and waste, geothermal and hydro technologies. For more, see BNEF’s 1H 2023
LCOE Update.

12 November 29, 2023

Wind and solar accounted for over a quarter
of global capacity for the first time in 2022
Global installed capacity by technology Global installed power-generating capacity reached a new
high of 8.3 terawatts (TW) in 2022, representing a year-on-
Terawatts year growth of over 5% from 2021 to 2022. Global installed
9
capacity in 2022 also represented a growth of over 50%
8.3
7.9 from the 5.4TW installed 10 years ago.
8 7.6
7.3
7.0 Wind and solar accounted for over a quarter of global
6.5 6.7
7 6.2 0.9 capacity for the first time in 2022. Together, these
5.9 0.8
5.7 0.6 0.7 technologies represented nearly 26% of global capacity as
6 5.4 0.6 1.2
0.8 1.0
0.5 0.7 of year-end 2022. Zero-carbon technologies reached 46%
5 0.3 0.4
1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 of global capacity, up from 33% in 2012.
1.1 1.1 1.1
4 1.0 1.1
0.9 1.0 Wind and solar saw the fastest growth of any type of
3 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 generation. Solar capacity in 2022 jumped 20% from the
1.6 1.6 1.7
1.5 1.5
2 year prior, to 1,228 gigawatts (GW) – more than 11 times
the 101GW that was online in 2012 and 176 times the 6GW
1 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 that was installed in 2006. Global wind capacity bounced
0 10% over 2021-2022 to reach 930GW, tripling in a decade.
2012

2013

2017

2021

2022
2014

2015

2016

2018

2019

2020
Coal still accounts for the largest individual share of global
Coal Natural gas Hydro Solar capacity, with 2.2TW, or 26% of the global power matrix.
Wind Nuclear Biomass and waste Oil and diesel Online coal capacity continues to rise in absolute numbers
Other - fossil Geothermal Marine even as its share on a percentage basis declines.

Source: BloombergNEF. ‘Other - fossil’ accounts for plants that use more than one fuel or fuels other than coal, oil, gas, hydro and nuclear.

13 November 29, 2023

Solar and wind accounted for 80% of global
capacity additions
Share of global capacity additions by technology New power-generating capacity added globally reached a
record 424GW in 2022, with solar and wind accounting for
100% 80% of the total. This was up 14% from 371GW in 2021,
90% 4% 4% and up more than 80% compared with the 231GW added
7% 13% 14% 16% 18% 19%
17% 20%
in 2012.
80% 26% 39%
15% 36% 42% 45% 49%
70% 18% 20% 13% 19% Solar accounted for 59% of all capacity added, followed by
59%
16% 13% 12% 22% wind, at 21%. Solar photovoltaic (PV) additions in 2022
60% were nearly 40% higher than in 2021.
14% 15% 18% 18%
50% 14% 10%
20% 17% Wind capacity additions dropped by 10% compared with
24% 26% 29% 22%
40% 15% 20% 12% 2021, held back by challenges around permitting,
5% 6% 31% 27%
30%
22% 23% 17% interconnection, supply chains and profitability. Supply
14% 4% 21%
19% 23% 10% chain bottlenecks have limited late-stage project
20% 7% 7%
32% 30% 28% 33% 5% deployment as well as rising costs for developers.
10% 23% 27% 22% 27% 21%
14% 10% 16% 10% 14% 5% Renewables (including hydro) encompassed 86% of total
4% 7%
0% capacity additions in 2022. This was up from just 52% in
2008

2009

2013

2017

2018

2022
2010

2011

2012

2014

2015

2016

2019

2020

2021
2012.
Coal Natural gas Hydro Wind Coal’s contribution to year-on-year growth rebounded to
Solar Nuclear Oil and diesel Biomass and waste 7%. Natural gas accounted for 5% of new capacity in
Other - fossil Geothermal Marine
2022, down from 14% in 2021.
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Share of global capacity additions excluding retirements. See more in the 4Q 2022 Global PV Market Outlook, 1H 2023 Offshore Wind
Market Outlook and 1H 2023 Global Wind Market Outlook. ‘Other – fossil’ accounts for plants that use more than one fuel or fuels other than coal, oil, gas, hydro and
nuclear.
14 November 29, 2023
Mainland China installed 42% of total
solar additions in 2022
Top 10 markets for solar Top 10 markets for solar Ten markets were responsible for 78% of all solar
capacity additions, 2022 capacity additions, 2013-2022 capacity added in 2022. Mainland China alone added
107GW in 2022, or 42% of total additions. Mainland China
Gigawatts Gigawatts and the US accounted for half of global capacity added
Mainland China 107 over 2013-2022, while also being the top two markets for
Mainland China 434
solar additions over the past decade.
US 22 US 133 New solar markets are emerging quickly as enabling
policy frameworks improve. Brazil, India and Vietnam are
India 18 Japan 78
developing economies where solar has boomed in recent
Brazil 14 India 77 years. India’s auctions, Brazil net metering policy and
Vietnam’s feed-in tariff were the main policy instruments
Germany 7 Germany 34 that helped kick-start these economies’ solar markets.
Despite these efforts, these markets represented only
Spain 7 Brazil 32 11% of solar additions in 2022.
Japan 6 Australia 26

Netherlands 5 South Korea 23

Poland 5 Spain 21

Australia 4 Vietnam 20

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: The charts show gross capacity additions.

15 November 29, 2023

Some 85% of wind capacity additions are
concentrated in 10 economies
Top 10 markets for wind Top 10 markets for wind Wind installations are concentrated in a relatively small
capacity additions, 2022 capacity additions, 2013-2022 number of economies, the top ten of which accounted for
85% of global capacity additions in 2022. Mainland China
Gigawatts Gigawatts alone represented 55% of all wind built in 2022 and 49%
Mainland China 49
of global cumulative wind installed capacity as of year-end
Mainland China 318
2022.
US 9 US 85 The US, the second biggest market for wind, accounted
UK 3
for 10% of the total capacity added in 2022. Yet, the
Germany 35
market installed 32% less in 2022 than in 2021. The UK
Brazil 3 India 23 followed, with 3GW installed in 2022, representing 4% of
all wind capacity added in the year.
Germany 2 Brazil 21
Excluding mainland China, Brazil and India led wind
France 2 UK 20 additions in developing markets over 2013-2022.
Together, they accounted for 7% of the global cumulative
Finland 2 France 13 installed capacity. Brazil saw a greater-than-sevenfold
increase, and India accounted for over 22GW added over
Australia 2 Turkey 11 that same period.
Sweden 2 Sweden 10

Spain 2 Canada 10

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: The charts show gross capacity additions.

16 November 29, 2023

Globally, fossil fuels’ net capacity additions
dropped to their lowest level ever
Global share of net capacity Global year-on-year capacity Fossil fuels’ share of new build slumped to 13% in 2022,
additions change their lowest level ever and a steep decline from 50% in
2013. Natural gas led this drop, sliding to 23GW added in
Gigawatts
2022 compared with 53GW in 2021. Coal was the top
100% 87% 440
fossil fuel added in 2022, accounting for a net growth of
360 30GW; that addition represents a steep drop from the
80% All renewables 70GW added in 2013 but a resurgence from net-negative
80% 280 252
182 figures in 2021.
60% 56 145
42 46 75
Wind and solar 200 34 49 62 101 106118 Led by wind and solar, renewables now represent 87% of
40% 52 net capacity additions. Solar saw a 252GW addition in
120 52 50 62 98 99 89
52 58 49 39 2022, more than double the capacity added in 2019.
20% Fossil fuels 13% 49 66 30
40 70 56 78 59 36 23 Despite changes in tax incentives and policies, as well as
30 46 33 53 30
commodity inflation and supply chain issues worldwide,
0% -40 2013 solar remains one of the cheapest new-build technologies
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022

for producing electricity in economies that make up two-

thirds of world population and three-quarters of global
Coal Natural gas
GDP.
Hydro Wind
Solar Nuclear
Oil and diesel Biomass and waste
Other - fossil Geothermal

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Graph shows net capacity additions. ‘Other – fossil’ accounts for plants that use more than one fuel or fuels other than coal, oil, gas,
hydro and nuclear.

17 November 29, 2023

Developed markets shuttered 10GW
of coal-fired power plants in 2022
Developed markets’ share of Developed markets’ year-on-year Developed markets shuttered around 28GW of coal
net capacity additions capacity change capacity in 2021 and 10GW in 2022. Fossil fuels’ net
additions in developed economies shrank in 2022, totaling
Gigawatts
100% 94% 140
just 6% of new build, compared with 8% in 2021 and 28%
All renewables in 2017. Natural gas accounted for just 4GW, compared
120
91%
with 21GW in 2018.
80% 100
Wind and Developed markets saw coal retirements slow down in
solar 80 58 69 77
60% 60 32 44
2022. As Europe struggled with droughts and gas supply
26 30 30 27 cuts from Russia, coal has turned into a short-term crutch
40 23
18 24 19 33 27 to meet energy needs. As result, many economies have
40% 20 14 24 19 24 31
13 21 11 12 20 21 8 12
8
delayed coal phase-out plans and even restarted capacity
0 -10 -10 -21 -11
-13 -19 -14 -24 -28 -10 that had been mothballed.
20% -20
Fossil fuels 6% Across all technologies, a record near-110GW of
-40
renewable capacity was added in developed markets in
0% -60
2022. Solar leads with 77GW, while wind was the second-
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022

2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
most-added technology, at 31GW. Renewables, including
Coal Natural gas large hydro, totaled 111GW .
Hydro Wind
Solar Nuclear
Oil and diesel Biomass and waste
Other - fossil Geothermal
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Graph shows net capacity additions. ‘Other - fossil’ accounts for plants that use more than one fuel or fuels other than coal, oil, gas,
hydro and nuclear.

18 November 29, 2023

Coal rebounded in developing markets in 2022, but wind
and solar still represented over 70% of capacity additions
Developing markets’ share Developing markets’ year-on- Developing markets added 59GW of fossil fuel capacity to
of net capacity additions year capacity change their grids in 2022, with coal alone accounting for 40GW.
This is the biggest increase in coal net additions since
Gigawatts
100% 350 2019, when it accounted for 60GW. This is mainly
attributed to mainland China, which added 33GW of coal
79% 300 capacity in 2022 alone. After a rise in 2021, net additions
80% from natural gas dropped to 19GW in 2022, down from
All renewables 250
108 164 45GW the year prior.
72% 200 17 25 42
60% 87
20 18 38 69 74 With solar and wind taking the lead, developing markets
Wind and 150 44 31 27 33 72
34 31 30 have added more capacity than ever. These markets saw
40% solar
100 40 38 38 28 17 38 66 73 58
27 16 13% growth in net additions in one year, to 310GW in
21% 29 45 21 21 22 20 2022. Solar added a record 164GW, 57% more than in
50 80 69 88 80 21 45 19
20% 46 49 60 38 18 40 2021. Wind dropped considerably, adding 58GW in 2022
0 compared with 73GW in 2021.
Fossil fuels
0% -50

2022
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2015

2017

2019

2021
2013
2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

Coal Natural gas

Hydro Wind
Solar Nuclear
Oil and diesel Biomass and waste
Other - fossil Geothermal
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Graph shows net capacity additions. ‘Other – fossil’ accounts for plants that use more than one fuel or fuels other than coal, oil, gas,
hydro and nuclear. Developing markets include mainland China.

19 November 29, 2023

Solar is by far the most popular
technology added worldwide
Markets with at least 1 megawatt installed per year, 2013-2022 In 2022, at least 101 markets installed at least 1 megawatt
(MW) of solar capacity – a new high. This figure is nearly
Number of markets double the 53 markets that did so in 2013. The modular
nature of PV, along with steep equipment price declines
120
over the course of the past decade, explain the
101 technology’s proliferation.
100 Hydro saw 47 markets adding over 1MW in 2022, the
highest number in the last three years and four more than
80
in 2021. Wind, on the other hand, dropped to 42 markets
adding at least 1MW, compared to 48 in 2021.
Coal saw an uptick in markets that installed at least 1MW
60 53
of this technology in 2022, while oil plummeted to its
47
42 lowest level since at least 2013 and natural gas kept
38 stable. Despite the drop, oil was the fossil fuel technology
40 35
installed in the greatest number of markets (38), followed
by gas (35) and coal (14).
20 14

0
Solar Wind Natural gas Hydro Oil and diesel Coal
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Data considers only 140 markets covered by Climatescope.

20 November 29, 2023

As capex costs for renewables fall,
each dollar invested has a greater impact
Solar and wind now have the lowest levelized cost of
Global wind capacity and Global solar capacity and
electricity (LCOE) of any technology. Solar and wind
investment 2018-2022 investment 2018-2022 LCOEs increased slightly in 2021 and 2022, due to a rise in
Gigawatts Gigawatts
/$ billion
commodity and freight prices and higher interest rates
/$ billion
imposed by central banks, yet fossil fuels saw their costs
1,000 1,400
rise even further.
900
1,200 Solar modules and wind turbine installations are intensifying
800 as equipment costs fall. This year, solar module prices hit
700 1,000 an all-time low, decreasing capital expenditures – or the
sum of development, equipment and construction costs –
600 800 for PV projects. This means that each dollar invested can
500 support more capacity.
600
400 Since 2022, renewables have become cheaper than coal
300 even in Japan, Malaysia and the Philippines. For the first
400
time ever, building an offshore wind project is roughly the
200 same price on average as building a coal-fired power plant
200
100 – and cheaper than building one fired by gas. Offshore wind
and coal now boast an LCOE of $74 per megawatt-hour
0 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 (MWh), compared with $92/GW for natural gas. In markets
representing 60% of global electricity generation, it is now
Investment Wind capacity Utility-scale PV capacity cheaper to build solar and wind power plants than to keep
running existing plants fired by gas and coal.
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: For more, see BNEF’s 1H 2023 LCOE Update. Wind data include both onshore and offshore wind.

21 November 29, 2023

In 2022, global investment in renewable energy
surpassed half a trillion dollars for the first time
Global new-build renewable energy investment by technology The funding of renewable energy projects and infrastructure
reached a record $560 billion in 2022, a 24% increase from
$ billion the year before. Clean energy investment almost doubled
600 from 2018 to 2022, with mainland China accounting for the
560
largest share of investment post-2020, with 52% in 2022.

500 Wind and solar reached new highs in 2022, together

452 120
accounting for 98% of the year’s renewable energy
investment. Solar alone represented 63% of the total.
400 364 76
340 Investment in utility-scale solar projects saw a 38%
293 199 increase from 2021 to 2022, while wind increased 4% over
58
300 45 the same period.
37 191
For the first time since 2018, utility-scale photovoltaic solar
200 163 172 (PV) raked in more than wind, with $230 billion – or 41% of
127
global renewable energy investment – in 2022. Wind
100 230 received nearly 36% of global investment, or $199 billion.
166
107 107 119 Small-scale PV projects came in third, with 21%, while
other renewables together accounted for the remaining 2%.
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Investment in small-scale PV projects soared to a record
Utility-scale PV Wind Small-scale PV Biofuels high in 2022, growing 57% year-on-year and more than
Biomass and waste Small hydro Geothermal Marine tripling compared to 2018. This growth was mainly driven
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Data includes new-build asset finance and small-scale PV by net-metering and tax incentive policies in key emerging
investment globally. markets.

22 November 29, 2023

However, investment is still
concentrated in a few emerging markets
Top 15 emerging markets for Top 15 emerging markets for Renewable energy investment remains highly
renewable energy investment renewable energy investment concentrated in a relatively small number of markets. In
2022, the top 15 emerging markets (excluding mainland
ex-mainland China, 2017-2021 ex-mainland China, 2022 China) for new-build clean energy investment attracted
$ billion $ billion $70 billion, or 87% of all investment in emerging markets.
India 26 14 4 47 Brazil 4 7 13 25
The list remains largely unchanged from the top 15
Vietnam 14 19 11 45 India 8 3 1 12
markets for cumulative renewable energy investment over
Brazil 7 18 13 41 South Africa 4
2017-2021, although in 2022 Uzbekistan, the Philippines,
6
Turkey 11 9 24 Colombia and Saudi Arabia edged out Ukraine, Argentina,
Taiwan 1 2 2 5
Taiwan 3 15 5 23 Russia and Morocco.
Turkey 2 1 2 4
Mexico 10 7 19 Pakistan 3 Investment in renewable energy skyrocketed in Brazil in
Chile 8 8 16 Egypt 2 2022, when the market attracted $25 billion – compared
UAE 10 13 Vietnam 2 with a cumulative $41 billion over the five preceding years.
South Africa 8 3 12 UAE 2 This jump was mainly thanks to a successful net-metering
Ukraine 3 6 10 Chile 2 policy aligned with tax incentives benefitting small-scale
Pakistan 7 8 Uzbekistan 2 PV projects, which attracted $13 billion in 2022, the same
Egypt 6 8 Mexico 1 amount the technology had received over 2017-2021
Argentina 5 7 Philippines 1 combined. Furthermore, Brazil attracted the third-highest
Russia 2 5 7 Colombia 1 investment in renewables globally, behind only mainland
Morocco 3 5 Saudi Arabia 1 China and the US.
Utility-scale PV Wind Small-scale PV Biomass and waste
Small hydro Biofuels Geothermal Marine
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Includes new-build asset finance and small-scale PV investment.

23 November 29, 2023

Policy plays a major role in clean energy
investment and deployment
Climatescope fundamentals score versus five-year renewable Over the past five years, the majority of clean energy
energy investment investment was directed to developed countries, while
only 27 developing countries (including mainland China)
Five-year investment ($ billion)
attracted more than $2 billion.
70
Among the 15 developed and emerging markets that
60 finished at the top of the Climatescope scoring table, the
50 average cumulative investment over the last five years
was $24 billion. Meanwhile, the 15 markets that finished at
40 the bottom of the ranking averaged $291 million.
Comparing countries’ policy scores with levels of attracted
30
investment reveals the key role policies can play in
20 mobilizing capital.

10 Difficulty in diversifying investment across emerging

markets is directly linked to the absence of environments
0 conducive to attracting such investments. Having effective
0 1 2 3 4 5 policies and a mature, transparent power market that is
Climatescope Fundamentals score open to private players, for example, renders a market
more attractive to clean energy investment.
Developed markets developing
Developingmarkets
markets Linear (developing markets)

Source: BloombergNEF, Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ). Note: The chart excludes mainland China and the United States due to outlier values.
Climatescope Fundamentals score encompasses a market’s key policies, market structure and barriers that could hinder investment. Investment includes new-build
asset finance and small-scale PV.

24 November 29, 2023

Policy adoption rates vary widely by
region Renewable energy targets are the most popular
policy choice in Africa, where 38 markets out of 42
Share of emerging markets in each region with a specific number of have them on the books. Due to an increase in the
policy mechanisms in force adoption of these targets, only 7% of the continent’s
70% markets have no clean energy policy in force; one
year ago this share was of 12%. Nevertheless, many
60%
60% markets in the region have yet to implement the
55%
necessary policies that would propel their power
sectors toward a cleaner and more sustainable
50%
future. Among regions, Africa has the lowest
38% 40% adoption of other kinds of renewable energy policies,
40% 35% 36%
33% and only 24% of its markets have at least three
31% 31% mechanism in force.
28%
30%
24% 23% In Europe, more than a third of emerging markets
20%
20% have at least four clean power policies in force, the
12% largest share of any region. All markets in the Asia-
10% 7% 8% Pacific region have renewables targets, and 36%
5% 5% 5% 4%
have at least three policies in place, while in the
0% 0% Middle East, 60% of markets have three policies on
0%
Africa Latin America Asia-Pacific Europe Middle East the books. And more than half of the markets in Latin
America have two policies, often a renewable energy
0 1 2 3 4 target and an auction or net-metering policy.

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Data includes renewable energy targets, feed-in tariffs, net metering/billing and auction/tender policies for emerging markets only.

25 November 29, 2023

More than half of emerging markets
conduct auctions for renewable energy contracts
Emerging markets with auctions, feed-in tariffs or both Reverse auctions for clean power delivery contracts and
feed-in tariffs have proved to be two of the more effective
policies for spurring renewable energy build. As of 2023,
63 of the 110 emerging markets surveyed in this report
have auction mechanisms, while 32 have feed-in tariffs.
Twenty markets have both.

Among regions, emerging Europe has the highest share –

77% – of developing countries with such policies. In Latin
America, auctions are the most popular mechanism for
enabling the development of renewables; these are
present in more than half of the region’s markets.
African markets were initially slow to adopt these policies
but have recently made significant strides: now, almost
half have auctions in place. The adoption of such policies
has helped support clean energy investment and capacity
deployment across the continent.

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Includes 110 emerging markets surveyed through the end of July 2023.

26 November 29, 2023

Clean power policies have made progress in emerging
markets – but are still not on track for meeting targets
Share of emerging markets surveyed where key renewable power
In 2023, 93% of the emerging markets covered by
policies are present, 2021-2023 Climatescope have renewable energy targets in place.
This represents a leap of 11 percentage points in just two
92% 93%
years. Renewable energy targets are by far the most
82% popular type of policy, but most of these markets lack the
mechanisms to help deliver them.
Reverse auctions for clean power delivery contracts and
59% net metering to support rooftop solar are also rapidly
56% 57%
53% gaining traction. In 2023, 57% of markets surveyed had
49% 49% auction policies in force, compared to 49% in 2021. Net
metering is now present in 59% of emerging markets,
compared to 49% in 2021, and the growth of this kind of
30% 28% incentive is helping distributed solar spread to more
27%
markets.
Feed-in tariffs are the only type of policy losing ground.
In 2023, they are available in 28% of emerging markets,
compared with 30% in 2022. The reasons for renouncing
an incentive may vary. While it’s common to move from
Target Auctions/tenders Net metering Feed-in tariff
feed-in tariffs to reverse auctions, retroactive changes
2021 2022 2023 may happen due to regulatory issues or governmental
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Includes 110 emerging markets surveyed through the end of July changes.
2023.

27 November 29, 2023

Strong renewable energy targets signal
ambition – but not always effectiveness
Gap to achieving renewable energy targets in emerging markets The last decade was marked by notable surges in climate
ambitions, with markets consistently improving their
renewable energy targets and pledging to accelerate
carbon emission reductions. Currently, the majority of
emerging markets covered by Climatescope have such
targets. The increased rate of these policies’ adoption can
be attributed mainly to international commitments and the
pressure imposed by events such as the Conference of
the Parties (COP).
However, among the markets that have a renewable
energy target in force, almost 60% have yet to meet even
the half-way mark, even though most of these goals are
set to come due in 2030.
Governments must thus balance ambition with feasibility
when it comes to setting targets. Achieving targets also
requires setting effective policies, such as tax incentives,
auctions, feed-in tariffs and net metering.

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Data shows only the 110 emerging markets covered by Climatescope. Parameters are: up to 20% - Small, 20% - 50% - Medium,
over 50% - Large. ‘Not applicable’ indicates the target has already been achieved, or the market does not have a target in force.

28 November 29, 2023

Tax incentives serve as foundation
to renewables deployment
2023 share of emerging markets surveyed with tax incentives Tax incentives are another important measure adopted
in force mainly in emerging markets. Governments in these
markets use tax reductions or exemptions in order to
attract project developers and subsidize upfront costs.
The most common type of tax incentive in the emerging
Import tax reduction/exemption 59%
markets surveyed by Climatescope is an import tax, which
is available in 59% of the 110 markets. Value-added tax
(VAT) exemptions/reductions, present in 55%, come in a
close second. Accelerated depreciation – by which
renewable energy asset book values decrease at a faster
rate than they would using traditional depreciation
VAT reduction/exemption 55% methods – is the least common, but still present in 25% of
the emerging markets.

Accelerated depreciation 25%

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Includes 110 emerging markets surveyed through the end of July 2023.

29 November 29, 2023

Regional analysis
Renewables leading worldwide
30 November 29, 2023
Generation by region and technology,
2018-2022
Africa Middle East Latin America
'000 TWh '000 TWh '000 TWh 1.6
1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6
0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.6
1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9
0.2 0.2 1.2
0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4
0.3 0.2 0.2
0.3 0.4
0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
0.0 0.0 0.0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
North America and Caribbean Europe Asia Pacific
'000
'000 TWh
TWh '000 TWh
'000 TWh '000 TWh
13.5 14.2
15
66 4.9
5.1 4.8
5.0 4.7 4.9
5.1 5.0 66 5.1
5.1 5.0 4.9 5.1
5.1 4.9 6 12.0 12.6 12.7
5.0
4.9 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.9
55 0.5
55 12 0.9
1.7 1.8
0.5
44 0.7
1.0
0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 44 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 49 1.7
0.7 1.8
0.7 1.7
0.7 0.6 0.7
1.9
3 0.9 0.8
0.9 0.7 0.8
0.9 0.9
0.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9
3 0.9 33 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8
0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 6
2 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.8
0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9
2 22 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 2 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.0
1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0
1.0 1.1 1.0 6.8 7.1 7.1 7.4 7.6
1 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 3
1 11 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8
1.3 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.3
0 0 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 0 0
0 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019
2018 2019 2020 2021
2021 20222022
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Marine Other - fossil Geothermal Oil and diesel Biomass and waste Solar Wind Coal Hydro Nuclear Natural gas
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Graph shows total generation by region. ’000 TWh is thousand terawatt-hours. ‘North America and Caribbean’ includes the US,
Canada and the Caribbean islands of American Samoa, Bermuda, Cayman Island, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.
.
31 November 29, 2023
APAC steers the wheel in global
generation growth…
Share of annual generation by region Demand for electricity from the Asia-Pacific region
(including mainland China) has risen swiftly over the past
decade, and the area now accounts for over 50% of global
7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% generation. Mainland China alone accounts for 31% of
global power generation.
21% 21% 21% 20% 20% 19% 19% 18%
23% 21%
Demand in Europe declined in 2022, due to an increase in
18% electricity prices attributed to the energy crisis and the
19% 19% 18% 18%
21% 21% 20% 20% 19% Russia-Ukraine war. Europe accounted for 18% of the
world’s electricity production in 2022 and has seen,
21% 21% 21% 21% alongside North America, its share of global generation
20% 20% 21% 21% 21%
20% decrease consistently since 2013.

The Middle East, Latin America and Africa have broadly

26% 28% 29% 30% 31%
23% 24% 25% 25% 25% held their shares of global generation, as the rate of
demand growth these regions has generally matched the
global growth rate. The Middle East and Africa each
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
accounted for 5% of global electricity generation in 2022,
Africa Middle East
while Latin America represented 6%.
Latin America Europe
North America and Caribbean Asia-Pacific (excl. China)
Mainland China

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: ‘North America and Caribbean’ includes the US, Canada and the Caribbean islands of American Samoa, Bermuda, Cayman Island,
Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

32 November 29, 2023

…with China accounting for the
greatest increase
Global annual generation by region or economy The Asia-Pacific region led the spike in global electricity
production, with a 6% jump from 2021 to 2022. Thanks to
Thousand terawatt-hours strong economic growth, mainland China saw generation
rise about 9%, to 8,600TWh, and accounted for nearly
30 27.5
26.7 85% of the global generation change over the same
25.1 25.7 25.6
23.7 24.2 period.
25 22.7 23.1
21.7 22.0
4.9
Power production in Asia-Pacific (including mainland
20 5.1 China) markets now represents over 50% of global
5.1 5.0 4.9
5.0 5.0 generation. These economies achieved the largest growth
4.9 4.9 5.0
5.0 5.0 4.9
15 4.9 4.8 4.7 in power production over a decade and jumped nearly 6%
4.7 4.7 4.7 from 2021 to 2022, to reach 14,200TWh.
4.6 4.7
4.6 5.6
10 5.4 5.3 5.6
5.0 5.1 5.3 Generation in Europe fell 3% from 2021 to 2022, as the
4.4 4.6 4.7
4.3 energy crisis and Russia-Ukraine war led to an increase in
5 8.6 electricity prices and a related drop in consumption.
6.2 6.6 7.2 7.5 7.9
5.0 5.1 5.6 5.7 5.8 Meanwhile, North America, Latin America and the Middle
0 East saw generation rise 2.6%, 3% and 1.5%,
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 respectively. In the African continent, power demand has
Mainland China Asia-Pacific (excl. China)
remained roughly flat, continuously accounting for around
North America and Caribbean Europe 3% of global generation.
Latin America Middle East
Africa
Source: BloombergNEF. North America and Caribbean includes United States, Canada and Caribbean islands of American Samoa, Bermuda, Cayman Island,
Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands.

33 November 29, 2023

Brazil leads G-20 economies on
renewable generation Around 30% of G-20 economies’ electricity generation
Share of renewable energy generation in G-20 economies came from renewables in 2022. This marks an all-time
high, and a jump of 10 percentage points from the 20%
100% Brazil share in 2012. In absolute numbers, G-20 economies saw
Canada renewable generation almost double over the last decade,
90% 88% from 3,300TWh in 2012 to 6,500TWh in 2022.
Germany
80% Turkey Among G-20 economies, only Brazil and Canada have
UK more than 60% of their generation coming from renewable
70% Argentina energy sources; in both cases, the high share is thanks to
Italy large hydro fleets. The other 17 economies are still lagging
60% Mainland China when it comes to adding more renewables to the grid and
Australia meeting their often-ambitious renewable energy targets.
50%
Mexico
Saudi Arabia, South Africa and South Korea are still falling
40% France
behind most of their peers. Such markets are highly reliant
Japan
on fossil fuels for electricity generation and have a long
30% US
way to go to be on track to meet their 2050 net-zero
Indonesia pledges.
20% Russia
India Brazil has one of the world’s cleanest energy matrixes.
10% This is mainly attributable to its natural resources,
South Korea
South Africa especially hydro power. In 2022, renewable generation in
0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Saudi Arabia
Brazil reached an all-time high thanks to abundant rainfall
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Renewable energy includes biomass and waste, geothermal, hydro, and solar and wind installed capacity growth as a result of
marine, solar and wind technologies. effective policies and incentives.

34 November 29, 2023

Installed capacity additions by region
and technology, 2018-2022
Middle East Africa Latin America
Gigawatts Gigawatts Gigawatts
29
20 25 22 30
15 24
20 21
15 12 15 3
10 10 20 17 3 4
15 15
10 9 8 9 4 6
8 9 3
1 10 17 4
10 6 8 10 4 3 18
5 7 4 2 1 4
6 5 12
3 4 2 8 8
2 3 3 4 4
0 0 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
North America and Caribbean Europe Asia Pacific
Gigawatts Gigawatts Gigawatts
46 47 80 74 288
50 43 69 300
40 242 239
40 9 8
31 6 60 49 49 15 200 196 45
14 20 200
30 21 17 11 37 45 54
8 40 15
20 48 59 61 63
10 14 16
8 100 33
10 25 23 20 11 42 147
19 30 103
10 12 22 22 71 69 92
0 13
0 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Marine Geothermal Other - fossil Oil and diesel Biomass and waste Nuclear Natural gas Hydro Coal Wind Solar
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Graphs show net capacity additions. GW is gigawatts. ‘North America and Caribbean’ includes the US, Canada and the Caribbean
islands of American Samoa, Bermuda, Cayman Island, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

35 November 29, 2023

APAC is home to half of global installed
capacity
Share of global installed capacity by region or economy The role of the Asia-Pacific region (APAC) in the global
power mix was reaffirmed in 2022, as the region now is
home to 49% of global installed capacity. As of year-end
4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 2022, APAC had 4.1TW installed, with mainland China
alone accounting for 30% of the global total. Mainland
18% 18% 17% China’s capacity has more than doubled over the decade,
25% 25% 24% 24% 23% 23% 22% 21% 21% 20% 20% 19% 19%
from 1.1TW in 2012 to 2.5TW in 2022.

19% 19% All regions broadly held their respective shares from 2021
18% 18% 18% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19%
18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% to 2022. Europe remaining the second largest region for
installed capacity with 20% of the global share, followed
20%
22% 21% 21% 20% 20% by North America at 17%. However, these are the only
26% 26% 26% 25% 25% 24% 23% 22% two regions that have seen a sharp drop in their capacity
27% 27%
shares since 2006, when each accounted for around 26%
of global capacity. This is mainly attributed to the steep
28% 29% 30%
22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 27% increase in mainland China’s installed capacity.
16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21%
Despite being home to around 16% of the world’s
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022
population, Africa has just 3% of installed global capacity.
This share has remained stable over the past 15 years.
Mainland China Europe
Asia-Pacific (excl. Mainland China) North America and Caribbean
Latin America Middle East
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: ‘North America and Caribbean’ includes the US, Canada and the Caribbean islands of American Samoa, Bermuda, Cayman Island,
Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.
36 November 29, 2023
Africa has seen the fastest capacity
growth in the past 10 years
APAC’s total installed capacity has nearly doubled in a
Global installed capacity by region
decade. Capacity jumped from 2.1TW in 2012 to 4.1TW
in 2022. In absolute terms, mainland China, India and
Terawatts
Japan led the region’s growth, accounting for 1,729GW
9 8.4 added in the last decade. Ambitious deployment goals
Africa
7.6
8.0 0.2 +67% and enabling policy frameworks have allowed APAC to
8 0.3
7.3 consistently expand the deployment of renewables.
7.0 0.5
7 6.7
6.5 +45% Middle East Africa followed, with a 67% jump over the same period. In
6.2
5.9 1.7 2022, the continent reached 237GW of capacity, up from
6 5.7 1.6
5.4 1.6
1.5 +55% Latin America 121GW in 2012. Egypt, South Africa and Algeria are
1.5
5 1.5 1.5
1.5 among the African markets that saw their installed
1.4 1.4 capacity grow most over the period, together adding
1.4 1.4 1.4
4 1.4 1.3 1.4 +20% Europe nearly 57GW in a decade.
1.3 1.3
1.3
3 1.2 1.3 Europe and North America have grown least since 2012.
1.2
+19% North America These regions each saw their power matrix grow by just
2 3.8 4.1 and Caribbean 20%. However, despite the European energy crisis and
3.2 3.4 3.6
2.6 2.8 3.0
2.3 2.4 the Russia-Ukraine war, Europe saw a slight increase in
1 2.1 +97% Asia-Pacific installed capacity in 2022. In North America, the uptake
0 was mainly led by the US with the establishment of the
Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which will kickstart an
2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

upsurge of renewables.
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: ‘North America and Caribbean’ includes the US, Canada and the Caribbean islands of American Samoa, Bermuda, Cayman Island,
Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. The % change in global installed capacity by region refers to the 2012-2022 period.

37 November 29, 2023

The G-20 represents 86% of global
installed capacity additions
Additions by technology Renewable additions by economy Renewable energy additions from G-20 economies
account for 80% of such additions worldwide. Wind and
Gigawatts Gigawatts solar alone accounted for 74% of additions, while hydro
400 364 350 291 covered just 4%. Biomass and geothermal together
summed around 1% of additions in 2022. The G-20
350 316 300 255
297 21 economies account for 85% of the global GDP, over 75%
300 222 18
251 44 250 21 of the global trade and around two-thirds of the world
238 32
250 27 22 32 population.
77 200 156
41 152 38 34
200 38 24 86 36
50 150 23 However, renewable additions in the G-20 are mostly
150 44 87 19
44 53 100 21 concentrated in four markets: mainland China, the US,
100 195 18 16 168
144 126 142 India and Brazil. Together, these economies accounted for
50 91 110 50 76
86 72 81% of G-20 renewable additions in 2022. These four also
0 0 saw the biggest growth in renewable capacity additions in
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022, almost tripling such additions compared to 2012
Marine Geothermal Mainland China EU numbers.
US India
Oil and diesel Other - fossil Brazil Germany Among G-20 economies, net coal additions rose
Japan Australia
Biomass and waste Nuclear UK France considerably in 2022, reaching 44GW, from 22GW in
Hydro Natural gas Canada Turkey 2021. Mainland China accounted for most coal additions,
South Korea Italy at 68% of the global figure.
Coal Wind Mexico South Africa
Indonesia Saudi Arabia
Solar Russia Argentina
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Graph shows net capacity additions. ‘Other – fossil’ accounts for plants that use more than one fuel or fuels other than coal, oil, gas,
hydro and nuclear. ‘EU’ excludes Germany, France and Italy, which are listed individually.
38 November 29, 2023
APAC’s installed capacity of renewables
has overtaken that of coal The cumulative installed capacity of renewable energy
APAC installed capacity by APAC installed capacity by (including large hydro) in the APAC region surpassed that
technology market of coal for the first time in 2022, as the two sources reached
Terawatts Terawatts 1.8TW and 1.7TW respectively. Coal is still the main source
4.5 4.1 4.5 4.1
of power production in APAC, due mainly to extensive coal
3.8 3.8 reserves in mainland China and India.
4.0 3.6 4.0 3.6 0.6
3.5 3.2
3.4 0.5 3.5 3.2
3.4 0.5 Apart from coal, fossil fuels’ installed capacity additions
0.5 0.5 have remained relatively stable. In the last three years,
0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3
3.0 0.4 0.4 3.0 0.5 0.3 fossil fuels have risen an average of 2% yearly, with coal
0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5
0.3 0.5 2.5 0.3 0.5 accounting for 60% of the fossil fuel additions.
2.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5
0.5 0.4
0.5 0.5 0.4 APAC holds the biggest coal reserves in the world.
2.0 0.6 0.7 2.0
0.4 0.5
0.3 However, despite renewable energy goals, coal phase-out
1.5 1.5
2.3 2.5 targets in the region’s main economies are still far away.
1.0 1.0 2.0 2.1
1.9
1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 APAC’s total installed capacity is heavily concentrated in
0.5 0.5 five markets. Mainland China, India, Japan, South Korea
0.0 0.0 and Australia account for 89% of the region’s power matrix,
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 at a combined capacity of 3.5TW.
Other - fossil Geothermal Other markets Australia Solar additions reached a new high of 47GW in 2022.
Biomass and waste Nuclear
Oil and diesel Natural Gas South Korea Japan Meanwhile, wind saw a slowdown, with 54GW of capacity
Wind Hydro added in 2022 against 62GW in 2021. To quickly meet
Solar Coal India Mainland China rising demand, mainland China and India are focusing on
Source: BloombergNEF solar deployment.

39 November 29, 2023

Africa’s abundant resources are an energy transition
opportunity still waiting to be tapped
Africa installed capacity by Africa installed capacity by The global energy transition represents a window of
technology market opportunity for Africa’s development. The continent’s
Gigawatts Gigawatts abundant natural resources could drive the energy transition
250 237 250 237 not only there but also internationally, by exporting clean
221 229 229
215 215 221 power (especially to European markets) and thereby
206 206
16 improving Africa’s own economic growth. However, so far,
200 19 200 62 67
24 19 60 limited progress has been made.
25 26 54 56
34 36
31 33 10 10 11 11 Fossil fuels dominate Africa’s power matrix, with natural gas
150 31 150 14 15
14 14 14 accounting for 41% of capacity installed, followed by coal with
55 56 22 22 24 24
53 54 54 21 24%. Renewables have consistently grown over the decade
100 100 and now account for 12% of the continent’s total capacity.
53 55 58 60
52 Solar jumped from near-zero levels in 2012 to 16GW in 2022.
50 96 97 50
83 87 89 Solar has the potential to help close Africa’s electrification
55 59 59 60 60
rate gap, as around three-quarters of the population of Sub-
0 0 Saharan Africa still lacks access to reliable electricity.
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 However, to allow PV to flourish, financial and regulatory
Natural gas Coal Egypt South Africa barriers must be addressed.
Hydro Oil and diesel
Other - fossil Solar Algeria Nigeria Africa’s total installed capacity is concentrated in just five
Wind Nuclear Morocco Other markets economies, accounting for 72% of the region’s installed
Biomass and waste Geothermal
capacity, or 170GW. South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Morocco
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: For more, see Scaling-Up Renewable Energy in Africa. ‘Other -
fossil’ accounts for plants that use more than one fuel or fuels other than coal, oil, gas, hydro and
and Angola represented 51% of the region’s installed
nuclear. renewables capacity in 2022.

40 November 29, 2023

The Middle East has the world’s lowest
share of renewable capacity
Middle East installed capacity by Middle East installed capacity by Home to some of the world’s largest fossil fuel reserves,
technology market the Middle East has a total installed capacity of 349GW, of
which 93% is attributed to fossil fuels. Saudi Arabia, the
Gigawatts Gigawatts United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Israel and Kuwait accounted
400
349 400 for 217GW of installed capacity in 2022, or over 60% of
343 349
350 320 329 343 the region’s capacity.
312 350 320 329
312
300 19
300 Nevertheless, solar is the renewable source with the
75 74 130 132
250 75 74 74 129 greatest potential in the region and has seen a consistent
250 124 129
increase over the past years. The region boasts some of
200 200 20 20 the best solar irradiation in the world. Solar jumped from
20 20 22 22
19 18 20 32 basically nothing in 2012 to 19GW in 2022. Renewables
150 150 31 31
31 31 overall have jumped sevenfold in just a decade.
216 222 230 229 36 45 48
100 213 100 30 31

50 50 94 95
None of the five biggest Middle Eastern economies in
90 90 92
terms of capacity have net-zero pledges. However,
0 0 progress is expected in the region, as these economies
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
intend to improve renewable deployment as one of their
Geothermal Biomass and waste Other economies Kuwait
main mitigation measures.
Nuclear Wind Israel Iraq
Coal Hydro United Arab Emirates Saudi Arabia
Other - fossil Solar
Oil and diesel Natural gas

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: ‘Other - fossil’ accounts for plants that use more than one fuel or fuels other than coal, oil, gas, hydro and nuclear.

41 November 29, 2023

Latin America has the cleanest power
matrix in the world
Latin America installed capacity Latin America installed capacity Led by hydro power, Latin America’s power matrix is the
by technology by market cleanest of any region, with over 60% of its total installed
capacity coming from renewable sources. Of this, two-
Gigawatts Gigawatts
600 thirds (200 GW) is represented by hydro. Solar follows in
600
525 525 second place, having jumped to nearly 58GW in 2022,
499 499
500 459 475 475 while wind accounts for around 41GW.
439 500 459
439 100
42 99 Solar and wind are the main bets for responding to rising
38 98
400 32 49 400 93 97 32 demand. Aligned with natural resources, growing
49 49 29 34
48 58 25 26 33 incentives and policy frameworks, uptake is expected to
48 39 24 33 44
300 32 33 44
300 39 41 keep rising in Latin American markets. BNEF expects
114 116 119 121 38 100
110 97 Latin America to add over 115GW of wind and solar in the
89 94
200 200 81 next five years.

100 200 100 216 Brazil leads renewables growth in the region. The
194 196 197 198 171 176 183 197
market’s net-metering-fueled sub-5MW PV market
0
continues to make an outsized contribution, accounting for
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 nearly a third of all investment in renewables and half of
all wind/solar build in 2022.
Geothermal Nuclear Other markets Chile
Other - fossil Coal Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile and Venezuela represent
Venezuela Argentina
Biomass and waste Wind 80% of the region’s installed capacity. Together they
Oil and diesel Solar Mexico Brazil
Natural gas Hydro account for 82% of renewable installed capacity in the
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: For more, see 1H 2023 Latin America Market Outlook. ‘Other - fossil’
region.
accounts for plants that use more than one fuel or fuels other than coal, oil, gas, hydro and nuclear.
42 November 29, 2023
Europe’s renewables penetration rises
as energy-security concerns hit the continent
Europe installed capacity by Europe installed capacity by Natural gas, hydro and coal have historically dominated
technology market the European electricity mix, but renewables are closing
Gigawatts Gigawatts in. Renewables (including large hydro) have consistently
grown over the past decade and now account for 23% of
1,800 1,653 1,800 1,653
the continent’s total capacity. Solar jumped from under
1,554 1,591 1,554 1,591
1,600 1,491 1,525 1,600 1,491 1,525 80GW in 2012 to 245GW in 2022, while wind grew from
1,400 156 1,400 110GW to 252GW over the same period.
162 160
164 164 210 756
1,200 236 211 1,200 641 660 683 714 The Russia-Ukraine war impacted Europe’s short-term
252 248 energy transition. The European energy crisis led several
1,000 203 245 1,000
150 173 economies to delay fossil-fuel phase-outs and apply
128 124
800 232 252 800 120 121 122 122 clawbacks to clean energy generators’ revenues, given
187 201 217 127 131
128 131 129
600 600 150 high electricity prices. Nevertheless, renewable energy
245 246 251 256 257 140 140 141 145
additions in the region reached a record high of 64GW in
400 400 222 228 234 234 241 2022.
200 398 399 398 413 414 200
239 244 246 251 251
0 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Geothermal Biomass and waste Russia Germany
Other - fossil Oil and diesel
France UK
Nuclear Coal
Solar Wind Italy Other markets
Hydro Natural gas
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: ‘Other - fossil’ accounts for plants that use more than one fuel or fuels other than coal, oil, gas, hydro and nuclear.

43 November 29, 2023

Fossil fuels and emissions
Fossil fuels’ flame is still very much alive
44 November 29, 2023
Natural gas grows slightly despite
supply constraints
Top economies for natural gas generation Ten economies accounted for 65% of the total natural gas
power produced globally in 2021. However, none of these
had natural gas as the main technology choice when
compared with other fossil fuels and renewable
Other markets technologies.
37% 38% 39% 37% 37% 38% 37% 37% 36% 36% 35%
UK The US has been the top natural gas generator for at least
Italy the last 15 years, and in 2022 was responsible for 28% of
natural gas generation, up from 23% in 2013. Its natural
South Korea
gas power production reached an all-time high of
Egypt 1,703TWh in 2022, after slowing down in 2021.
Saudi Arabia
6% 5% 5%
9% 9% 8% 7% 6%
9% 9% 8% 8% Mexico
4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7%
4% 4% 5% Japan
10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 9% 8%
10% 10% 9% Mainland China
Russia
25% 23% 23% 25% 25% 24% 26% 27% 28% 26% 28% US

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: BloombergNEF

45 November 29, 2023

Mainland China and the US push for
natural gas
Top 10 markets for natural Top 10 markets for natural gas The US and mainland China represent nearly 54% of all
gas capacity additions, 2022 capacity additions, 2013-2022 natural gas generating capacity added from 2013 to 2022.
The two economies are home to some of the largest
Gigawatts Gigawatts natural gas reserves in the world, and together they
Mainland China 10 US 93 accounted for 51% of new additions in 2022.
Mainland China alone added 10GW of natural gas in 2022
US 6 Mainland China 81
– or 33% of the global share – as it focuses on ensuring
Thailand 2 Egypt 39 energy security by promoting domestic production.

Germany 2 Russia 20 The US installed 6GW in 2022, accounting for 18% of the
global figure, as the fracking boom pushed gas forward as
Uzbekistan 1 South Korea 19 a cheaper alternative for meeting demand.
Brazil 1 Saudi Arabia 17 Eight other economies accounted for 34% of global
Pakistan 1
additions in 2022. Top European economies added 3GW,
Iraq 17
while markets in Asia, Africa and the Americas contributed
Ghana 1 Japan 14 another 8GW.

Greece 1 Mexico 13

Canada 1 Thailand 12

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: The charts show gross capacity additions.

46 November 29, 2023

Emerging markets dominate coal
additions
Top 10 markets for coal Top 10 markets for coal Mainland China led the building of new coal-fired power
capacity additions, 2022 capacity additions, 2013-2022 generating capacity in 2022. The economy accounted for
68% of new coal additions in 2022 and added 374GW of
Gigawatts Gigawatts coal over 2013-2022, or 59% of the total global.
Mainland China
Meanwhile, India installed 113GW over the same period.
33 Mainland China 374
Excluding mainland China, seven other Asian markets are
Indonesia 5 India 113 among the top 10 economies for coal additions in 2022,
representing 24% of the total. Indonesia, Japan,
Japan 3 Indonesia 22
Bangladesh, South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam and
Turkey 1 Vietnam 20 Pakistan together added 12GW last year.
The Asia-Pacific region holds the biggest coal reserves in
Bangladesh 1 South Korea 14
the world and was responsible for over 95% of global coal
Turkey 9 additions in 2022. Some 93% of additions between 2013
South Korea 1
and 2022 also came from the APAC region.
Philippines 1 Japan 8

Philippines 8
Vietnam 1
Pakistan 6
South Africa 1
Ukraine 6
Pakistan 1
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: The charts show gross capacity additions.

47 November 29, 2023

Power sector emissions reached a
record high in 2022
Global power sector Global power sector emissions by Power sector CO2 emissions set a new record in 2022, at
emissions by technology economy 13 billion metric tons of CO2 (GtCO2). Emissions rose
Million metric tons CO2 100% around 2% compared to 2021 levels, and over 4% from
equivalent 2020. This was mainly due to the year-on-year jump in
14,000 90% coal and natural gas generation once economies
80% 37% 38% 38% 37% 36% 35% 35% 33% worldwide started to recover from the pandemic.
12,000
Emissions from coal-fired power plants and natural gas
70%
10,000 4% rose 2% each in 2022 from the prior year. However,
60% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 11% emissions from oil saw an 8% decrease compared to
9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 2021, attributed to the spike in global petrol prices.
8,000 50%
14% 14% 14% Mainland China, the US and India are responsible for 64%
40% 18% 17% 16% 16% 15%
6,000 of global power sector emissions, largely due to their
30% reliance on coal generation. Japan follows far behind, with
4,000
20% 39% 4%.
32% 32% 32% 33% 35% 37% 36%
2,000 10% While emissions remained flat or slid slightly from 2021 to
2022 in absolute terms for most economies, mainland
0 0%
China saw a rise of 8.5% over 2021-22, compared to 1.6%
2015

2017

2019

2020

2021

2022
2016

2018
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022

over 2020-21. Since 2015, the economy has consistently

raised its share of total global power sector emissions: in
Coal Natural Gas Oil and diesel Mainland China US India Japan Other markets just five years, mainland China’s power-sector emissions
have soared 20%.
Source: BloombergNEF “New Energy Outlook 2022”

48 November 29, 2023

04.
Transport trends
Strong growth, concentrated in wealthy markets
49 November 29, 2023
One-quarter of global emissions come
from the transport sector
Direct emissions in CO2 equivalent Transport emissions by
by sector subsector Transportation accounted for 24% of the world’s
Million metric tons of CO2 equivalent emissions in 2022 – second only to the power sector,
100% Power which was responsible for 41%. Few developing
10,000
markets have the infrastructure, incentives and
90% 9,000 Rail policies to adequately support the scale-up of clean
transportation.
80% 8,000
Within the sector, road transportation accounts for
70% 7,000 Shipping three-quarters of total emissions. Shipping and
60% 6,000 aviation come in a distant second and third place,
Aviation
while rail and transport-related power emissions
50% 5,000 account for the slim remainder.
40% 4,000 Climatescope focuses on road transportation,
30% 3,000 especially passenger vehicles and buses, as most
Road policy efforts related to electrifying transport have
20% 2,000 focused on this area to date.
10% 1,000
0% 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2010 2020
Other Buildings Industry Transport Power
Source: BloombergNEF, NEO 2022. ‘Other’ includes agriculture, forestry, fishing, energy industry own energy consumption, and other final energy consumption no
further specified.

50 November 29, 2023

Global EV sales topped 10 million for
the first time in 2022
Global passenger EV sales (left axis) and share of passenger EVs in Global passenger EV sales hit 10.3 million in 2022, more
total car sales (right) than triple the number sold two years earlier. BNEF’s
Million Electrified Transport Market Outlook projects 2023 to be
yet another record year with over 14 million vehicles sold
12 15.0% 16%
in total.
14% In six years, EV penetration in total passenger vehicle
10
sales jumped 10-fold. EV sales accounted for 15% of
12% global car sales in 2022, up from 1.4% in 2017.
8 9.9%
10% Record-high EV sales in 2022 put a dent in the market for
internal combustion engine (ICE) cars, although global
6 8% vehicle demand continues to grow. According to BNEF’s
10.3 Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook 2023, annual
4.8% 6% passenger vehicle sales will a peak at just over 100 million
4
6.4
in 2037. Despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, chip
2.8% 4% shortages and high inflation all putting additional pressure
2.6%
2 1.4% on an already strained automotive supply chain, the EV
3.1 2%
1.9 2.1 market shows no signs of plateauing. This growth is
1.1 mainly attributed to mainland China’s local-level subsidies,
0 0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
combustion vehicle restrictions, consumer demand and
Annual EV sales EV share of total cars sold fleet operators.
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Includes passenger battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.
For more, see BNEF’s Electric Vehicle Outlook 2023.

51 November 29, 2023

Nearly 15% of all passenger vehicle sales
in developed markets were EVs in 2022
EV sales in developed markets (left axis) and EV sales as a share
of total developed-market car sales (right) In developed markets, EV sales jumped 21% year-on-
Million year, from 3.2 million in 2021 to 4 million in 2022. Sales
Other
have grown more than eightfold since 2017.
4.50 16%
Belgium
4.0 The US regained its position as the group’s top market for
4.00 14% EV sales in 2022, with over 970,000 EVs sold – a year-on-
14% Netherlands
year growth rate of 49%. From 2019 to 2021, the crown
3.50
3.2 12% Canada was held by Germany, which saw sales jump sevenfold –
3.00 11% to nearly 680,000 – in just two years. The US had
South Korea
10% previously been the largest developed market for EVs for
2.50 Italy at least a decade.
8%
1.8 Sweden
EVs reached over 14% of total car sales in developed
2.00
6% markets in 2022. This was up from 10.7% in 2021 and just
6%
1.50 France 1.5% in 2017.
1.0 4% UK
1.00 0.8
0.5 3%
2% Germany
0.50
US
0.00 0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Share of EV sales
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Includes passenger battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. Developed markets include OECD countries minus Chile, Colombia,
Costa Rica, Mexico and Turkey. ‘Other’ includes all other developed markets covered by Climatescope.

52 November 29, 2023

China is home to 60% of global EV sales… and
nearly 96% of EV sales among emerging markets
EV passenger vehicle sales in emerging markets (left axis) and EV
share of total car sales in emerging markets (right) Mainland China accounted for nearly 96% of EV sales in
Million emerging markets in 2022, with 6.1 million vehicles sold.
7 10%
Since 2017, the market has seen 13 million EV sales –
6.3 significantly more than the combined totals of the top 10
9% developed electric-vehicle markets, which together posted
6
a cumulative 9.5 million EV sales from 2017 to 2022.
8%
5 Mainland China drove global EV sales growth in 2022,
7%
accounting for 60% of global sales. EV sales in the market
3.3 6% nearly doubled year-on-year.
4
5% Other emerging markets represent a tiny share of total
3 global EV sales, but their progress should not be
4% overlooked. In 2021, these markets accounted for nearly
2 3% 3% of global EV sales and 4.3% of sales among emerging
1.3
1.1 1.1 markets. However, the number of units sold in these
2% markets nearly doubled each year from 2020 to 2022.
1
0.5 1%

0 0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Other Mainland China EV share of total cars sold
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Includes passenger battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. Developed markets include OECD countries minus Chile, Colombia,
Costa Rica, Mexico and Turkey. ‘Other’ includes all other developing markets covered by Climatescope.

53 November 29, 2023

EV sales in emerging markets
ex-mainland China also spiked in 2022
EV sales in emerging markets (left axis) and EV share of total
emerging markets car sales (right), both excluding mainland China Emerging markets (excluding mainland China) saw steep
Thousand EV sales growth from 2021 to 2022, nearly doubling to
208 reach a combined 208,000 units. Sales spiked 71% from
210 1.0% Other 2020 and have grown over 17 times since 2017, though
Turkey the overall figures remain small.
180
0.8% Philippines Excluding mainland China, India, Thailand and Brazil were
the biggest sources of EV demand among developing
150 Mexico markets in 2022. Together, these three accounted for over
0.6% Indonesia 40% of emerging-market EV sales.
120 108
Romania Despite the strong growth, EVs were just 0.5% of
emerging markets’ total car sales in 2022. This was up
90 Ukraine
0.4% from 0.1% in 2019 and nearly nothing in 2017.
61 Taiwan
60
44 Brazil
28 0.2%
30 Thailand
12
India
0 0.0%
Share of EV sales
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Includes passenger battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. Developed markets include OECD countries minus Chile, Colombia,
Costa Rica, Mexico and Turkey. ‘Other’ includes all other developing markets covered by Climatescope.

54 November 29, 2023

The EV adoption gap between developed
and developing markets is wide
EVs’ share of total national sales in the top five developed and Among the top five developed markets for EV adoption,
developing markets the share of EVs in overall sales in 2022 averaged 40%.
Sweden Among the top five emerging markets with the highest
60%
sales rates, the average is 12%. Yet EV activity is gearing
Denmark up in these emerging markets, driven in part by
50% Finland improvements in policies and tax incentives.

Netherlands Many barriers hinder EV growth in emerging markets.

Inadequate regulatory support, lack of EV models, high
40% Germany upfront costs, the popularity of used cars and sparse
Developed markets average charging infrastructure are all to blame.
30% On average, developed markets’ EV share of sales was
Mainland China
nearly 17%, 17 times higher than the figure registered for
Singapore emerging economies. Despite the huge gap between
20%
16.9% Romania those numbers, both developed and developing markets
are progressing at roughly the same rate, with average EV
Bulgaria share of total sales growing 40-fold in both cases since
10%
Taiwan 2016.
1.3%
0% Developing markets average
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Developed markets Developing markets

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Includes passenger battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.

55 November 29, 2023

 Import tax exemption for EVs is the most
popular policy in emerging markets
Share of Climatescope markets with clean-transport policies in place
Clean-transport policies are coming into force in more
93% emerging economies every year, but the gap between
developed and developing markets remains wide. Some
Clean transport target 32%
93%
93%of developed markets surveyed by Climatescope
83% have clean transport targets on the books. In emerging
Clean transport target 22% 86%
EV purchase grant/loan incentive 15% markets, the total is just 32%, although this represents a
86%
Clean transport target 22%
EV purchase grant/loan incentive 7% 10-percentage-point increase over last year’s figure.
60% 72%
45% Direct purchase incentives, which lower the upfront costs
EV
EVpurchase grant/loan incentive
charging infrastructure target 8% 24%
EV charging infrastructure target 15% of buying EVs, are effective at kick-starting markets, but
45%
60% 45% are still limited to a small share of developing economies.
EV charging infrastructure
EV recurringtarget
road tax reduction15% 8% Such subsidies are expensive for governments and thus
EV income tax reduction 9%
31%
38% harder to introduce. They typically include EV purchase
EV recurring vehicle use tax
EV recurring road tax reduction 9% 10% 63% incentives, and income/import tax reductions.
reduction
EV recurring tax reduction 15%
24%Developed
Developed markets
markets
34%
EV VAT reduction 21% markets Import tax incentives are the first to be embraced by
Developing markets
Developing
EV income tax reduction 7% 20% 24% emerging markets. Duty taxes in emerging markets
National
Market-wide
EV import tax income tax reduction
EVreduction 7% 43%34% State/province level usually hold a considerable share of the final cost for
State/province level
EV recurring vehicle use tax 14% 14% consumers, as most of these markets are not vehicle
reduction EV import tax reduction 53% makers and have to import them.
7%32%
EV VAT
EV import taxreduction
reduction 30%
10%
Source: BloombergNEF, Climatescope. Note: Tax reduction
28%incentives include tax exemptions. Developed markets include OECD economies minus Chile, Colombia,
Costa Rica, Mexico and Turkey.
EV VAT reduction Developing markets include all other economies. VAT is value-added tax.
20%
56 November 29, 2023
More markets than ever are implementing
internal combustion engine phase-outs
ICE phase-out targets by market
Some 37 central governments have set dates to
Cumulative number eliminate sales of internal combustion engine (ICE)
71 vehicles. Another 34 regional and municipal authorities
Regional and municipal level have such goals in force. The European Commission’s
proposal to phase out ICE vehicle sales in the EU by
Market-wide 58 2035 adds another 11 markets to the former list.
53
34 Regional and state-level ICE phase-out targets matter.
48 Even targets that affect smaller geographical regions can
45
signal to automakers and consumers the need to shift to
33 zero-emission vehicles, especially in areas where
33 32 market-wide mandates have yet to be implemented.
32
31 Progress in setting ICE phase-out targets is slow in
23 emerging markets. Of the five emerging markets with the
24 biggest vehicle fleets – mainland China, India, Brazil,
37 Mexico and Thailand, which together represented nearly
12
19 25 45% of global passenger vehicle sales in 2022 – only
7 21
10 14 16 Mexico has an ICE phase-out on the books. This policy
7 9 applies only to Mexico City, and it aims to ban ICE
2 4
vehicles in 2040.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Data as of July 2023. Graph considers only markets covered by Climatescope.

57 November 29, 2023

Thirteen emerging markets have set ICE
vehicle phase-out targets
ICE vehicle phase-out targets by market
Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ghana, Oman,
Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam are some of the
emerging markets that have recently set ICE phase-out
targets.
Chile and Colombia aim to reach 100% EV sales by
2035.
Costa Rica is targeting 100% zero-emission vehicle
sales by 2050.
Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan and Ghana have set
targets to phase out ICEs by 2040.
Oman is the latest addition to this list, having this year
introduced a target to phase out ICEs by 2050.

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Climatescope surveys 110 emerging markets. Mapped data show target type for distinct economies. Data as of July 2023.
Represented on the map are all markets with national or regional targets, with emerging markets highlighted with the legend.

58 November 29, 2023

Mainland China leads the push to
electrify public transport
E-bus targets in force by market
Among the 35 economies that have set market-level
targets to expand e-bus adoption, 21 are emerging
markets. An additional 16 markets have regional or
provincial targets on the books.
Global e-bus sales are growing briskly, largely thanks to
mainland China. E-buses accounted for 40% of all new
bus sales globally in 2022, according to BNEF’s Long-
Term Electric Vehicle Outlook 2023.

E-bus sales are also growing in Latin America and

elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region. Chile and Colombia
combined accounted for 98% of Latin America’s e-bus
sales and 2% of global sales in 2022. India and South
Korea are Asia-Pacific’s second- and third-largest
markets, respectively, both trailing well behind mainland
China.

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Mapped data show target type for distinct economies. Data as of July 2023. Represented on the map are all geographies with market-
level or regional targets. For more, see BNEF’s Electric Vehicle Outlook 2023.

59 November 29, 2023

05.
Electrified heating
A year of stalled sales growth for heat pumps
60 November 29, 2023
Markets with cold climates
have substantial heating needs
Markets covered by Climatescope’s buildings sector report Generating heat for buildings represents a major source of
energy demand in ‘cold’ markets, or those with annual
average annual temperatures below 54F/12C.*
Decarbonizing heat in these geographies could
substantially lower global greenhouse gas emissions.

The Climatescope report only assesses heating data and

policies in these designated ‘heating markets’, which
number 29 in this year’s edition of the report. Markets with
warm or hot climates are excluded from this section, as
are markets where heating data is unavailable.

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: *Heating needs based on ‘heating degree days’ data, which are based on temperatures and the number of days with average
temperatures below 62F (17C).

61 November 29, 2023

The shift to cleaner heating sources
has yet to get on track Even though the popularity of electrified heat has grown
Heat pump sales by market over the past decade as countries seek lower-carbon
solutions for boosting building temperatures, heat pump
Million units sold sales in 2022 stalled compared to the year prior. Heat
12 pump sales rose only 1% from 2021 to 2022, to reach to
10.8 10.9 11 million units sold. That’s 7 percentage points less that
Rest of the World the average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) since
10 9.5
9.1 2012. In addition, heat pumps remain concentrated in just
Finland
five markets – the US, Japan, mainland China, France
8
7.8
0.6
Poland and Italy – which together accounted for 81% of 2022
7.1 1.6 Sweden sales.
6.5 1.4 1.3
1.5
5.7 Canada Gas heating is typically cheaper than heat pumps for
6 5.4 0.7
5.2 0.7 European households. However, the recent global energy
2.9 2.0 Germany
3.0 crisis and subsequent volatility in electricity and gas prices
2.9 3.0 Italy
4 2.7
have boosted heat pump sales, as have targeted
2.4 2.5 France subsidies.
2.7 2.6
Mainland China When compared to traditional electric heaters, heat pump
2 3.9 4.4
2.9 3.1 3.4 Japan uptake usually leads to reduced energy consumption, as
2.4 2.3 2.6
1.8 2.0 the technology produces two to three times more heat
US
0 using the same amount of electricity.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Data for Mainland China only available from 2016.

62 November 29, 2023

Heat pump incentives and low-carbon heat
targets are the most popular policies surveyed
Share of Climatescope markets with a clean buildings
policy in place Heat pump purchase incentives are present in 24 of the
markets surveyed, making them the most popular such
policy on the books. Low-carbon heat targets or
Heat pumps purchase grants/loans incentives 83% roadmaps, which are in place in 76% of covered markets,
are a close second. Tax credits and boiler scrappage are
also relatively popular, with roughly 50% of markets using
Low-carbon heat target/roadmap/strategy 76% these to support heat pump adoption.
Government bans on the purchase of certain boilers have
also grown in recent years. No fewer than 15 countries
Tax credits 52% have announced bans set to be in force by 2030.
However, due to high upfront costs, heat pump demand
remains quite dependent on subsidies or other consumer-
Boiler scrappage schemes 48% support mechanisms, and in many markets the technology
still struggles to compete with gas-fired boilers.

Ban on boilers/new-build homes 48%

Ban on boilers/all homes 38%

Source: BloombergNEF

63 November 29, 2023

Governments lean on boiler bans
in new homes
Markets with boiler bans in force, by technology type Government bans on the purchase of certain types of
boilers have increased in recent years. Out of the 29
markets surveyed by Climatescope, 15 have legislated
bans on boilers for one or more type of fuel.
13 13
Bans on boilers are somewhat balanced among the
different technologies. Thirteen markets have bans on gas
and oil boilers scheduled to come into force in or before
2030, while eleven markets plan coal boiler bans by then.
These bans are typically guided by a combination of cost
and environmental factors, including goals to phase out
fossil-fuel-intensive heating systems.
In 14 of the markets surveyed, boiler bans affect only new
buildings, exempting most of the existing housing stock,
11 while 11 markets have announced bans that will apply to
all existing homes.

Gas Oil Coal

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Countries with bans planned in more than one technology are counted twice.

64 November 29, 2023

An enabling environment is necessary for smoothing
the transition to clean heating
Number
Number ofof markets
countries withinenergy
with policy Energy efficiency measures Energy efficiency measures and performance standards are
performance standards in force
force in each period conventional steps for transitioning to a cleaner building
environment. These standards determine a maximum
30 27 acceptable level for buildings’ final energy use. Where such
policies are in place, building assessments, conducted by
25 verified assessors at a set frequency, are usually
mandatory. While performance standards are not new, they
20 18
are becoming much more common, especially for newly
built structures. Out of the 29 markets surveyed, only 18
15
had a standard in force in or before 2015; five years later,
10
that number had risen to 27.

4 Energy efficiency strategies and financial incentives help

5 move a market’s building stock toward better efficiency
1
ratings. These strategies typically include policy support for
0
improving insulation and draft-proofing, upgrading or
1996-2005

2006-2015

2016-2020
Before 1995

changing to more efficient types of heating and fitting new

heat controls, among other measures. While 97% of the
surveyed markets have energy efficiency ambitions, just
72% actually provide grants to support them. Loans are an
even less common option, with only 45% of markets using
this approach.

Source: BloombergNEF

65 November 29, 2023

06.
Results: Power sector
66 November 29, 2023
India is the most attractive emerging
market for investment in the power sector
Top 10 emerging markets in the power sector, Climatescope considers over 100 indicators across
by Climatescope score three parameters – fundamentals, opportunities and
Climatescope score Change in ranking experience – to asses markets’ relative attractiveness
India 2.67 +1 for renewable energy investment. We then use these
indicators to generate composite overall scores for
Mainland China 2.64 +1 each of the 140 markets surveyed. These key topic areas
-2
encompass each market’s previous accomplishments,
Chile 2.53
as well as the current environment and future
Philippines 2.48 +6 opportunities for investment. The 2023 edition of
Climatescope covers 110 emerging markets and 30
Brazil 2.43 +4 developed economies – the highest count yet.
Croatia 2.37 -1 Since 2018, India, mainland China and Chile have
consistently stood atop the podium, although their precise
Turkey 2.37 + 14
ranking has varied. The trend continues in 2023, when India
Colombia 2.35 -4 tops the ranking, followed by mainland China, Chile, the
Philippines and Brazil.
North Macedonia 2.32 -2
Romania 2.28 + 26
Fundamentals Opportunities Experience
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Maximum score is 5. Fundamentals, opportunities and experience are the parameters that add up to a market’s overall score for
clean power. Between them, the parameters encompass over 100 indicators, or individual data inputs collected by Climatescope researchers.

67 November 29, 2023

1. India

India’s ambitious policy framework and extremely

competitive renewable energy market pushed it to the top
of the podium this year. India boasts the largest and most
3.78 Fundamentals competitive auctions in the world, as well as one of the
world’s highest renewable energy targets: 175GW by
March 2022, and 500GW by 2030. As of year-end 2022,
Opportunities
2.02
installed renewables capacity had reached 140GW –
made up of 78GW of solar, 41GW of wind and 21GW from
1.10 Experience other clean sources excluding large hydro – or 80% of the
175GW goal. Since 2017, capacity additions from
renewables have exceeded those of coal.
India’s position in the Climatescope ranking mainly
reflects its fundamentals. Since 2012, it has implemented
specific and efficient policies such as auctions, renewable
energy targets and feed-in tariffs. These transparent
mechanisms and ambitious government targets have
attracted many domestic and foreign players, garnering
around $47 billion in clean energy investment over the
past five years.

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Investment figures include small-scale PV.

68 November 29, 2023

2. Mainland China

Mainland China continues to play a key role in the global

clean energy story, receiving a top-five Climatescope
score for each of the past four years. While it comes in
3.33 Fundamentals second overall this year, it boasts the top score for
Opportunities, a reflection of its massive potential for
growth. We expect that by 2030, 35% of the world’s
2.42 Opportunities
installed solar capacity and 50% of wind will have
originated in the Asian giant. At the end of 2022, mainland
1.47 Experience China had 440GW of solar and 393GW of wind online,
representing 33% of total installed capacity.
However, coal still dominates mainland China’s power
system and accounted for nearly 44% of total installed
capacity in 2022. Currently, 64% of the market’s
generation comes from thermal sources, with coal alone
accounting for almost 60% of that figure.
Mainland China attracted 78% of emerging markets’ clean
energy asset investment last year. Among top five
markets on the Climatescope ranking, Mainland China
attracted almost seven times as much as the four other
markets together.
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Investment figures include small-scale PV.

69 November 29, 2023

3. Chile

Chile’s well-established clean energy policies, bold targets

and overall commitment to greening its grid all contributed
to its third-place finish. Moreover, significant volumes of
renewable energy investment have helped make Chile
3.38 Fundamentals attractive to clean energy investors.
The market has already achieved its 20%-by-2025 target
1.61 Opportunities
for clean power generation well in advance of the
deadline, and the government is now discussing
1.73 Experience implementing a bolder target of 60% clean power
generation in the upcoming years. While 44% of Chile’s
generation currently comes from thermal sources, the
market has committed to shuttering 1.7GW of coal-fired
power by 2025 and completely phasing out coal by 2040.
At the end of 2022, Chile had 7.3GW of solar and 3.9GW
of wind online, representing 35% of its total installed
capacity.
Chile has attracted around $16 billion of clean energy
investment over the past five years. This is mainly due to
its well-structured power sector, which allows developers
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Investment figures include small-scale PV. to sign bilateral contracts with large customers outside the
(Corrects second paragraph to say that the 60% clean energy target remains under discussion
regulated market, among other benefits.
and that the commitment to shutter 1.7GW of coal-fired power is by 2025.)

70 November 29, 2023

4. Philippines

Over the past two years, the Philippines’ significant

progress in transitioning to renewable energy propelled
the market into Climatescope’s top five. The market
3.61 Fundamentals stands out as one of the few that have implemented
auctions, feed-in tariffs, net-metering schemes, tax
incentives and a strong target for renewable energy. In its
1.97 Opportunities
second green energy auction, the Philippines awarded
3.4GW of renewable capacity out of the 11.6GW offered.
0.73 Experience From this, 1.2GW is earmarked for 2024-25 and will target
ground-mounted and rooftop solar and onshore wind, and
2.2GW is earmarked for 2026. Currently, around 18% of
the market’s total installed capacity comes from
renewables, with wind accounting for 8%.
The Philippines’ release of an offshore wind roadmap and
no foreign ownership restrictions have encouraged growth
in offshore wind investment. The market’s clean energy
investment grew 41% from 2021 to 2022, to reach $1.34
billion.

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Investment figures include small-scale PV.

71 November 29, 2023

5. Brazil

After a two-year absence, Brazil has returned to the top

five emerging markets in the Climatescope ranking. The
small-scale segment is the main driver of clean energy
3.60 Fundamentals deployment in the market, adding a remarkable 10.7GW in
2022 to bring cumulative small-scale capacity to 23GW.
1.02 Opportunities Brazil added a record 6.2GW of utility-scale solar and
wind capacity in 2022, up 10% from the year prior.
1.49 Experience Moreover, clean energy investment grew from $14 billion
in 2021 to almost $25 billion – or 81% of Latin America’s
total – in 2022.
Brazil has the cleanest electricity matrix among G-20
economies, and one of the largest fundamentals scores
amid emerging markets, due to generous net-metering
legislation and a pioneering renewables auction scheme.
Brazil’s renewable energy success was further enabled by
consistent investment in grid infrastructure and an active
role from national development banks.

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Investment figures include small-scale PV.

72 November 29, 2023

The top five Latin American markets all feature
in the top 20 emerging economies worldwide
Climatescope scores of top five emerging markets in Latin America Chile, Brazil, Colombia, Peru and Guatemala are the most
attractive countries for renewable energy investment in
Latin America, according to the Climatescope survey.
Climatescope score These five are all among the 20 most attractive markets
for clean energy investment worldwide, out of 110
Chile 2.53 emerging markets surveyed. One common factor is that all
of them have well-established and effective policies, in
addition to structured power sectors open to private
Brazil 2.43 investors.

Latin America accounted for 8% of emerging markets’

Colombia 2.35 clean energy investment in 2022, or $30.5 billion. The
8 region saw its investment in renewables jump $9 billion
15 from 2021 to 2022, mainly due to Brazil, which attracted
Peru 2.12 81% of the region’s total. Chile followed with $1.6 billion,
14 and Colombia accounted for $1.2 billion.
5

Guatemala 2.11
Solar power has been skyrocketing in the region since
3 2016, and the technology attracted a record 59% of total
new clean energy investment in 2022. This is mainly due
Fundamentals Opportunities Experience to the strong net-metering and auctions policies that most
of the region’s markets have in place
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Map shows the overall position in the Climatescope ranking among
emerging markets.

73 November 29, 2023

Asian markets raised their climate
ambitions
Asia-Pacific economies dominate the top 15 emerging
Climatescope scores of top five emerging markets in Asia-Pacific markets in the Climatescope 2023 ranking, with India,
mainland China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan and
Kazakhstan all appearing in this upper echelon. The region
Climatescope score is home to 4.1 terawatts (TW) – or nearly 50% – of the
world’s total installed capacity, with renewables accounting
India 2.67 for 1.2TW in 2022. The top five Asian markets account for
82% of the region’s total capacity.
Mainland
2.64
Asian governments raised their climate ambitions in 2022,
2 China with more funding and new schemes for renewables. For
12 the first time, all Asian markets had established renewable
1 4 Philippines 2.48 energy targets last year. Vietnam, for example, is set to
11
surpass Indonesia to become Southeast Asia’s leader in
renewables capacity. In 2021, Vietnam’s prime announced
Vietnam 2.21
a 2050 net-zero target at COP26 that remains the most
advanced climate commitment in Southeast Asia.
Taiwan 2.18 In 2022, the region attracted $319 billion, or 86% of
emerging markets’ renewables investment. Just five Asia-
Fundamentals Opportunities Experience Pacific markets accounted for 98% of the region’s total.
Excluding mainland China, the top markets attracted just
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Map shows the overall position in the Climatescope ranking among $20 billion, more than half of which went to India.
emerging markets.

74 November 29, 2023

Strong policies create an enabling
environment for renewables in Europe
Climatescope scores of top five emerging markets in Europe Croatia, Turkey, North Macedonia and Romania rank
among the top 10 emerging markets overall. European
markets reveal the importance of establishing solid
Climatescope score policies for encouraging renewables development. As a
result, Europe boasts the highest average Fundamentals
among all regions, at 2.77, compared with 2.35 globally.
Croatia 2.37
Europe’s developing economies boast 20% of the global
share of installed capacity among emerging markets. Of
Turkey 2.37 this, 14% comes from clean energy sources, having
increased to 66GW in 2022 from 41GW in 2018.
North Emerging markets in Europe attracted $7.3 billion in
2.32
Macedonia
renewable energy investment in 2022, the lowest level
since 2016. Russia used to attracted the biggest share of
10
6 Romania 2.28 investment among Europe’s emerging markets, but clean
9 energy investments in Russia have fallen since 2018, and
7
17 the Russia-Ukraine conflict has dragged them down even
Albania 2.09 further.

Fundamentals Opportunities Experience

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Map shows the overall position in the Climatescope ranking among
emerging markets.

75 November 29, 2023

A lack of efficient policies and reliable power
markets penalizes the African continent
Climatescope scores of top five markets in Africa South Africa, Kenya, Tunisia, Benin and Morocco are the
top five most attractive markets for renewable energy
Climatescope score investment in Africa, under Climatescope’s scoring.
Despite encompassing the largest number of emerging
markets within a region, Africa has no entries among the
21
27 South
2.11 top 15. This is mainly due to the lack of supportive policies
Africa and well-structured, reliable power markets.
However, the region still boasts the highest scores for the
Kenya 2.06
Opportunities parameter, with four of the top 10 markets
by this ranking. With 63% of Africa’s installed capacity
23 Tunisia
coming from fossil fuels, the continent has a long way to
2.05
19 go to transition to a cleaner economy. Coal alone
accounts for more than half of the continent’s electricity
Benin 2.04 generation, although coal generation decreased 11% from
2018 to 2022.
In 2022 the region attracted $10.1 billion, compared to just
Morocco 1.60
16 $4.5 billion in 2021. Yet African markets attracted only 3%
of emerging markets’ renewable energy investment in
Fundamentals Opportunities Experience 2022, with South Africa accounting for 55% of the region’s
total.
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Map shows the overall position in the Climatescope ranking among
emerging markets.

76 November 29, 2023

The Mideast’s fossil fuel surplus slows
renewables growth
Only one Middle Eastern market – 18th-place Oman –
Climatescope scores of top five markets in the Middle East figures among the top 20 Climatescope scores for
Climatescope score emerging markets, as the region struggles to change its
fossil fuel reserves into renewables. Building thermal
power plants in the Middle East remains far cheaper than
building renewables, meaning the region would have to
Oman 2.06 invest massively to transition to a cleaner economy. The
Middle East also has the lowest average electricity prices
in the world, further hindering the deployment of
Bahrain 2.03 renewables projects. However, this picture is slowly
39 changing, as countries set ambitious targets for renewable
42
Saudi energy.
1.97
32 26 Arabia
Despite bold targets and new policies, the region saw
renewable energy investment fall from 2021 to 2022. In
Jordan 1.92 2022 the region attracted just $4.3 billion, compared to
$5.6 billion in 2021.
18
Pakistan 1.86 The United Arab Emirates and Jordan both saw a boom in
renewables investment in the past years, but that has now
Fundamentals Opportunities Experience stalled. Since 2019, the lack of new auction rounds and
small clean energy capacity additions have stood between
these markets and their clean energy targets, slowing
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Map shows the overall position in the Climatescope ranking among
emerging markets. down the energy transition.

77 November 29, 2023

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