Ecosystem Services 52 (2021) 101363

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Ecosystem Services
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecoser

Regional scale mapping of ecosystem services supply, demand, flow and

mismatches in Southern Myanmar
Melanie Feurer a, b, c, *, Henri Rueff b, Enrico Celio d, Andreas Heinimann b, c, e, Juergen Blaser a,
Aung Myin Htun f, Julie Gwendolin Zaehringer b
a
School of Agricultural, Forest and Food Sciences HAFL, Bern University of Applied Sciences BFH, Zollikofen, Switzerland
b
Centre for Development and Environment CDE, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
c
Institute of Geography GIUB, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
d
Institute for Spatial and Landscape Development IRL, Planning of Landscape and Urban Systems PLUS, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
e
Wyss Academy for Nature, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
f
Environmental Care and Community Security Institute ECCSi, Yangon, Myanmar

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Mapping ecosystem service (ES) supply, demand, and flow – and identifying supply/demand mismatches – has
Ecosystem services become a focus of ES research and has benefitted from recent advances in modelling techniques and their
Balance combination with Geographic Information Systems. But few studies have been done in data-scarce tropical forest
Access
frontiers and these were limited in terms of area, land uses, and number and types of ES. Aiming to evolve
Bayesian networks
Frontier landscape
contemporary approaches, we used Bayesian networks to model and map nine ES across Myanmar’s Tanintharyi
Tanintharyi Region for local stakeholders. Results show that while there is a high supply of multiple ES at regional level,
demand for ES in urban and rapidly developing agricultural areas is not fully covered. Further, we identified a
clear connection between land tenure and ES outcomes for rural communities. Agricultural concessions and
protected areas with restricted access for the local population were related to lower ES flows and more supply/
demand mismatches than community forests or untenured land. For future research on local ES outcomes in
tropical forest frontiers, we recommend combined mismatch and flow analyses under consideration of tenurial
rights.

1. Introduction Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (Díaz et al., 2018). The ES concept
nevertheless remains the most suitable way to assess local relations
Human–nature interrelations are becoming ever more apparent in between humans and nature in an integrative way (Braat, 2018; Pan­
the joint search for solutions to global goals of biodiversity conservation, deya et al., 2016). Meanwhile, research on ES has made much progress
climate change mitigation, economic development, and human well- on different valuation methods (Gómez-Baggethun et al., 2016) and on
being (UN, 2015). In forest frontier landscapes, trade-offs almost al­ modelling and mapping (Willemen et al., 2015). Mapping is an impor­
ways occur in efforts to achieve both ecological and social goals, espe­ tant tool for policymakers to better understand the links between eco­
cially if policies fail to take a holistic approach. Within such landscapes, systems, society, and human well-being (Burkhard and Maes, 2017). In
the concept of ecosystem services (ES) (Costanza et al., 2017) is highly the last decade, spatial assessments of ES have thus become increasingly
useful for assessing the multiple benefits people obtain from different relevant and have evolved by including demand (Schröter et al., 2012;
landscapes. First popularized in 1997 (Costanza et al., 1997), the Wolff et al., 2015) as well as flows (Bagstad et al., 2013; Baró et al.,
concept was applied at a larger scale in the Millennium Ecosystem 2016; Schirpke et al., 2019).
Assessment (MEA, 2005) and has since seen various adaptations. It has While simple mapping methods showing ES provision scores by land
also evolved into further concepts, such as that of nature’s contribution cover type are particularly useful in data-scarce regions, they do not
to people by the Intergovernmental Science–Policy Platform on usually reflect the dynamics of supply and demand. Using expert

* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: [email protected] (M. Feurer), [email protected] (H. Rueff), [email protected] (E. Celio), [email protected]
(A. Heinimann), [email protected] (J. Blaser), [email protected] (J.G. Zaehringer).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2021.101363
Received 30 March 2021; Received in revised form 13 September 2021; Accepted 14 September 2021
Available online 1 October 2021
2212-0416/© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
M. Feurer et al. Ecosystem Services 52 (2021) 101363

valuation, Burkhard et al. (2012) included demand for a variety of ES water regulation, environmental education, cultural identity) in a
based on land cover types. Other studies added the notion of ES flows to tropical frontier landscape. It further aims to map ES flows based not
show whether potential services can be accessed by people. One of the only on distance but also on land tenure and zoning. By applying pre­
most comprehensive studies so far mapped supply and flow of, and viously developed empirical ES models on the basis of Bayesian net­
demand for, eight ES in the European Alps, and assessed the respective works [Feurer et al., 2021] and incorporating ecological and socio-
ES bundles (Schirpke et al., 2019). Mapping ES supply, demand, and economic data sets from Tanintharyi Region using the gBay tool (Stri­
flow can inform policymakers of a potential mismatch in a certain area, tih et al., 2020), this study aims to spatially assess ES outcomes from a
through unsatisfied demand or overuse (Geijzendorffer et al., 2015). perspective of local stakeholders across the region.
Several studies have mapped such mismatches between supply and de­ The study was guided by the following research questions:
mand in the northern hemisphere (Baró et al., 2016; Burkhard et al.,
2012; Chen et al., 2020). But remaining challenges are the lack of a) What is the regional extent and spatial distribution of the supply,
empirical data and participatory approaches to include stakeholder demand, and flow of nine ES for local stakeholders?
perceptions (Baró et al., 2016). b) What are the supply and demand balances for nine ES across
In tropical regions, recent notable mapping studies presented trade- Tanintharyi Region?
offs between three services in Ecuador (Forio et al., 2020), (mis)matches c) How frequent and intense are ES mismatches illustrated at different
and trade-offs in Brazil (Pinillos et al., 2020), and spatial equity in spatial scales?
accessing services in ES hotspots in forested landscapes of Suriname
(Ramirez-Gomez et al., 2020). However, due to the inherent complexity 2. Material and methods
of socio-ecological systems and data scarcity in many tropical regions,
ES assessments in the tropics remain limited in terms of area, land uses, 2.1. Study area
and number and types of services investigated. Furthermore, mapping
studies have considered mostly ES that are important from a public Tanintharyi Region in Myanmar’s South is situated between Mon
perspective such as carbon sequestration, water regulation, food pro­ State in the North, Thailand in the East and South, and the Andaman Sea
duction, or recreation and tourism (Malinga et al., 2015). There is an in the West. It encompasses 4.3 million ha of land including a large
inherent need to better include the perspective of local stakeholders number of islands. Land cover is mostly forest along the hilly areas near
such as smallholder farmers and forest-dependent people into the the Thai border, with degraded forest patches and both large-scale (oil
modelling and mapping process (Willemen et al., 2015), particularly in palm, rubber) and small-scale (rubber, mixed) plantations near the roads
contested frontier regions. (Fig. 1). Oil palm plantations are found mainly in the southern part near
In tropical forest frontier landscapes such as Myanmar’s Tanintharyi Kawthoung, while rubber plantations are concentrated around Dawei in
Region, where overlapping land claims cause conflicts and hinder sus­ the northern part. Mangrove forests are most prevalent near Myeik and
tainable development planning (Schneider et al., 2020), spatial ES as­ in the archipelago. Paddy rice production is common in the flat areas
sessments can provide opportunities to identify local stakeholder needs near villages and roads. Most villages are located near the main roads,
and plan landscape development accordingly. In Tanintharyi, the with most of Tanintharyi’s 1.4 million-strong population (DOP, 2014)
remaining large, intact, and mostly undisturbed natural forest land­ living in these areas.
scapes are under increasing pressure from infrastructure development, Tanintharyi Region is one of the focal areas of the OneMap Myanmar
agricultural expansion, mining, and overuse (de Alban et al., 2019; Lim initiative, which aims to improve country-wide accuracy and avail­
et al., 2017). The situation is further aggravated by conflicting interests ability of data on land use, land cover, and land tenure by combining
between local communities, the private sector, and government in­ official sources with participatory mapping and public contributions.
stitutions. A global biodiversity hotspot (Myers et al., 2000), Tanintharyi Thus, Tanintharyi has a relatively good availability of land use data
is increasingly characterized by large-scale oil palm concessions compared to other regions of Myanmar. There are currently two pro­
(Woods, 2016), private rubber plantations (Vagneron et al., 2017), and tected areas (Tanintharyi Nature Reserve and Lampi National Park); a
mining (LaJeunesse-Connette et al., 2016); it is also the location of a further two were proposed in 2002 but are contested due to the top-
Special Economic Zone, with plans for development (Walsh, 2015). down approach of the proposals (Lenya National Park and Tanintharyi
Priority issues at the global level include biodiversity and climate National Park). In addition, there are a total of 69 formal community
change mitigation, but local stakeholders may require different ES from forests (OMM, 2018b) as well as several informal community protected
land systems. In northern Tanintharyi, where rural communities use the areas. In another development, concession lands have been granted to
land for shifting cultivation, mixed betelnut and cashew plantations, various companies since the early nineties, with 7.5% and 0.1% of
rubber plantations, and to gather non-wood forest products, ES associ­ Tanintharyi’s land area under oil palm and mining concessions,
ated with these land uses were found to be essential for the well-being of respectively (Feurer et al., 2021). The remaining land is under the
the inhabitants (Feurer et al., 2019). Unfortunately, local communities relevant government departments, where local land users can apply for
have little say when it comes to the use of land and are thus limited in formal user rights. However, much of the cultivated land, including
their access to ES, especially in zones allocated to government entities or shifting cultivation areas, is managed through customary rights.
concessionaires (Feurer et al., 2019). Understanding spatial ES out­
comes for local stakeholders by analysing supply, demand, and flow – 2.2. Theoretical framework
and to what extent they are matched or mismatched – is a crucial step
towards formulating adequate policies for more sustainable landscapes This research builds on current understandings of the ES concept
and human well-being. (Costanza et al., 2017) and recent advances in ES mapping (Burkhard
Until now, few studies have attempted to map both ES supply and and Maes, 2017; Willemen et al., 2015). The underlying idea is that final
demand in tropical forest frontiers, and none have combined the anal­ ES outcomes are influenced by the supply and flow of, and demand for,
ysis of supply/demand (mis)matches with considerations of access to such services (Feurer et al., 2021; Geijzendorffer et al., 2015; Schirpke
give an adequate representation of actual ES outcomes for local stake­ et al., 2019). While ES supply encompasses the goods and services pro­
holders, which is a particularly sensitive issue in forest frontiers (Ram­ vided by nature, ES demand refers to the use and perceived value of these
irez-Gomez et al., 2020). goods and services. Finally, ES flow refers to people’s access to the goods
Recognizing this gap, the objective of this study is to identify spatial and services they require. We consider ES supply to be the result of
supply/demand (mis)matches of nine ES (subsistence foods, commercial biophysical factors such as vegetation, climate, soil type or slope, and
products, fuelwood, medicinal plants, biodiversity, climate regulation, land management aspects including land use, agricultural practices, or

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M. Feurer et al. Ecosystem Services 52 (2021) 101363

Fig. 1. Map of the study area (land use adapted from Connette et al. (2016)).

chemical inputs. ES demand, on the other hand, is the result of the with adaptations to the local context. The main selection criteria were:
perceived benefits, including non-material and intrinsic values, and coverage of at least one provisioning, regulating, and cultural service, a
actual use by the local people based on population density and the local link to dominant land uses in the study area, relevance for local stake­
availability of substitutes, e.g. modern medicine instead of traditional holders (based on a ranking exercise in three villages), secondary data
herbal remedies. We consider ES flow to represent people’s access to availability, suitability for modelling, and relevance for policymakers
service providing areas, consisting of physical accessibility based on (based on a literature review). The selected ES are: subsistence foods,
distance, institutional accessibility based on zoning (protected area, commercial products, fuelwood, medicinal plants, biodiversity, climate
community forest, concession), and tenurial rights. regulation, water regulation, environmental education, and cultural
Nine ES were selected based on the Common International Classifi­ identity.
cation of Ecosystem Services classes (Haines-Young and Potschin, 2018),

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M. Feurer et al. Ecosystem Services 52 (2021) 101363

2.3. ES models Table 1

Main model variables considered as determinants for supply, demand, and flow
Bayesian networks (BN), which have gained attention in ES model­ in relation to nine ecosystem services derived from the Common International
ling and mapping (Burkhard and Maes, 2017), are probabilistic models Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES).
resting on causal dependencies (Kjærulff and Madsen, 2008). They Ecosystem Supply variables Demand Flow variables
include one or several root nodes (input variables), structuring inter­ service variables
mediary nodes, and end or target nodes (output variables). BN are Subsistence Land use Land use (food Distance to village
particularly useful in data-scarce regions; advantages include their foods type)
ability to integrate different types of data and knowledge sources as well Population
density
as their handling of uncertainties by operating with probabilities. These Residential area
features contribute to the recommendations by Willemen et al. (2015) Commercial Land use Land use (type of Township (means
for mapping ES: robustness, transparency, and stakeholder relevance. In products Slope product) of transport)
spatially explicit applications of BN, uncertainties can be illustrated for Soil type Population zoning
Wet months density
example in the form of an evenness index of probable values (Stritih
Residential area
et al., 2020). We adopted previously developed BN (Feurer et al., 2021) Township
and updated them with secondary data on Tanintharyi Region (see (employment
Section 2.4.1) using Netica commercial software (version 6.05). The rate)
models had been developed in a comprehensive iterative process of Fuelwood Land Use Population Distance to village
density Slope
several steps and three main phases: defining model structures,
Residential area Zoning
construing conditional probabilities, and calibrating and validating final Township (fuel
models. The process was grounded on a comprehensive literature review type)
and three months of field research between 2017 and 2020 by the first Medicinal plants Key biodiversity Distance to forest Distance to village
area Population
author. The field research included transect walks; field observations
Land use density
and focus group discussions in eight villages in three townships; a Zoning (land Residential area
household survey (n = 40); and 15 in-depth interviews with local ex­ management)
perts from non-governmental organizations, civil society, and research Biodiversity Distance to forest Land use Distance to
institutions active in the study area. More details are found in Feurer Key biodiversity Population agriculture
area density Distance to village
et al. (2021). The final BN thus incorporate various data types including
Land use Residential area
available geodata, a population census, and qualitative data. Each of the Zoning (land Township
nine BN had the end nodes ‘supply’ and ‘demand’ with five values on a management) (employment
scale of 1 (very low) to 5 (very high), as well as ‘flow’ with three sector)
Climate Land Use Distance to bare Distance To
respective values from 1 (low) to 3 (high). The relationships between
regulation land Village
variables as well as end values are determined by a mix of literature and Population
social valuation and presented as probabilities (ibid.). The input vari­ density
ables, for which categorical spatial data was added for this study, are Residential area
listed in Table 1. The complete BN are displayed in the Annex. Township
(employment
Certain limitations of the models relating to representativeness
sector)
across the region must be acknowledged. Reasons for these limitations Water regulation Annual Land use (type of Township (water
include the vastness of the area investigated, the limited availability of precipitation product) source)Zoning
data, the low accessibility of some areas of the region, and the high Land use Population (watershed
Residential area density protection)
diversity in both land use and culture. While the models take the
(pollution) Township (water
perspective of local stakeholders, notably rural communities, the Slope source)
perception of certain minority groups are not fully accounted for. These Soil type
include, among others, internally displaced people living in the Tanin­ Wet months
tharyi hills, the Moken living on the sea, and migrant workers staying in Environmental Land use Population Residential
education Zoning (vocational density areaTownship
concession areas.
training) Residential area (internet)
Township
2.4. Mapping process (employment
sector)
Cultural identity Land use Land use Distance to village
2.4.1. Data sources and processing
Land use (cultural Zoning
The ES maps produced are based on currently available secondary changeTownship products)
data for the study region as well as primary data collected for this (mobiles phones) Population
research and included in the BN. For the selection of the most accurate density
and recent data for this study, the following criteria were used: Avail­ Residential area

ability (published or made available by the OneMap Myanmar project),

scope (covering the entire Tanintharyi Region), date (most recent), and 2.4.2. Generating spatial model outputs
accuracy (according to the authors’ knowledge on the situation on the We used an online tool, gBay, (Stritih et al., 2020) to link the BN with
ground). the respective spatial data. BN models were uploaded to the tool in .dne
All data sets were pre-processed in ArcGIS (V 10.6.1) to fit the same format and spatial data were uploaded in .tif format. The gBay tool then
extent, include only relevant classes, and show consistency with the connected the spatial data (raster cells) with the BN provided. In the
categories used in the ES models. All vector data were first converted to spatial data sets (e.g. on land use or soil type), each pixel has a specific
raster data. At the end, all raster files were stored in .tif format and value (e.g. oil palm or nitisol), which provide the evidence for the BN’s
clipped to the extent of the land use raster with the same resolution as root nodes. We then calculated the rest of the nodes with the underlying
the original raster (31 m × 31 m). Table 2 lists all data sets underlying conditional probabilities of the BN and produced as output the posterior
the ES models, the original sources, and the relevant pre-processing that probability of each possible value for the determined target nodes
was done.

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Table 2
List of spatial data sets, sources, and pre-processing steps carried out in ArcGIS (V 10.6.1).
Data set Subset Source(s) Pre-processing

Land use All land use classes Connette et al. (2016) • Reclassify 16 land cover classes into 9 land use classes → landuse9
Oil palm (planted) OMM (2017b) • Reclassify to oil palm and built-up
• Multiply with landuse9 and reclassify (rubber where no oil palm planted in second data set)
→ landuse9_op
Mining areas LaJeunesse-Connette et al. • Reclassify (yes, no)
(2016) • Multiply with landuse9_op and reclassify → landuse10
Zoning Protected areas IUCN and UNEP-WCMC • Delete features (proposed protected areas)
(2016) • Reclassify (yes, no)
Community forests OMM (2018b) • Reclassify (yes, no)
Mining concessions OMM (2018a) • Delete feature (large overlapping concession area)
• Reclassify (yes, no)
Oil palm concessions OMM (2017a) • Reclassify (yes, no)
SEZ (Special Economic MIMU (2020) • Combine all and reclassify
Zone)
Key biodiversity area BirdLife International (2010) • Delete features (marine protected areas)
• Reclassify (yes, no)
Slope NASA (2015) • Classify (flat if < 30%, slope if ≥ 30%)
Soil type FAO (2007) • Dissolve according to main soil types (acrisols, gleysols, fluvisols, nitrosols)
Precipitation WorldClim (2012) • Combine rasters (PPET 1 – 12)
• Add field and calculate annual precipitation
• Reclassify into 5 classes according to model
Wet months WorldClim (2012) • Calculate number of wet months
• Add field and classify (1–3, 4–6, > 6)
Residential area Worldpop (2016) • Classify (rural if < 4 pph, urban if ≥ 4 pph)
Township MIMU (2020)
Population Village tracts MIMU (2020) • Add field in attribute table (pp/ha)
density • Classify (high if, medium if, low if)
Land use change Schmid et al. (2021) • Reclassify (yes, no)
Distance to agriculture based on landuse10 (see above) • Agriculture = mixed plantation, oil palm, paddy, rubber
• Calculate Euclidean distance for maximum of 10 km
Distance to forest based on landuse10 (see above) • Forest = intact forest
• Calculate Euclidean distance
Distance to bare land based on landuse10 (see above) • Bare land = bare, mining, built-up, paddy
• Calculate Euclidean distance for maximum of 3 km
Distance to Villages MIMU (2020) • Calculate Euclidean distance
village

(ibid.). In our case, the target nodes were ‘supply’, ‘demand’, and ‘flow’ outweighs local demand and negative values where demand exceeds
for all nine ES models. The supply and demand nodes had five values on supply. All negative balances were termed mismatches. Two sets of
a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 representing a very low outcome and 5 repre­ spatial analyses were done (frequency and intensity of mismatches)
senting a very high outcome. Flow nodes had three respective values on combining the nine ES balances. The frequency analysis consisted of
a scale of 1 to 3. After updating the BN with spatial data (i.e. hard evi­ summing up the number of ES presenting mismatches (balance < 0) per
dence), gBay produced outputs in the form of a multi-band raster (in .tif pixel, resulting in a theoretical range from 0–9. For the intensity anal­
format) for each determined target node. The multi-band raster con­ ysis, we first inverted all negative balance values (balance < 0) into
sisted of one band per value showing their respective probability and an positive mismatch values (-4 to 4, − 3 to 3, etc) to simplify further an­
additional band with the most likely state number of a target node. alyses. We then added the mismatch values of all nine ES, resulting in a
Further, gBay provided an additional multi-band raster including some theoretical range from 0–36. In a final step, these mismatches were
basic statistics (Shannon’s evenness index, mean, median, standard de­ contextualized in more detail for two case study sites where extensive
viation). The Shannon’s evenness index reflects a measure of uncer­ combined field experience by several of the authors provided reliable
tainty and ranges between 1 (uniform distribution and maximum insight. The two sites were selected based on the following criteria:
uncertainty) and 0 (complete certainty) (ibid.). representativeness of land uses, occurrence of mismatches, and
contextual information from field research. Study site A is located in
2.5. Data analysis (outputs) Yebyu township and represents a typical frontier landscape with high
development and various zoning arrangements such as a protected area,
All outputs including nine ES supply, demand, and flow maps were community forests, and an oil palm concession. Study site B encom­
closely examined for plausibility in ArcGIS by comparing them with the passes the coastal town of Myeik and some surrounding areas including
land use map and by zooming in on different areas. The analysis was paddy fields and mangroves. Both study sites were analysed in terms of
supported by field observations by the first author of this paper from a mismatch frequency and intensity. In order to contextualize them more
total of three months spent in Tanintharyi Region between 2017 and accurately, the prevalence of mismatches for each ES was additionally
2020. To examine the supply, demand, and flow outputs, we operated calculated as the percentage of pixels (% per area) presenting a
with the most likely values (1 to 5 and 1 to 3, respectively) and addi­ mismatch for the respective ES in each study site.
tionally displayed evenness indices representing map uncertainties.
Spatial statistics were calculated in ArcGIS. In addition to supply, de­ 3. Results
mand, and flows, spatial supply/demand balances were calculated by
subtracting the most likely demand value (between 1 and 5) from the 3.1. Ecosystem services distribution in Tanintharyi Region
most likely supply value (between 1 and 5). This led to ES balances in the
range from − 4 (demand > supply) to 4 (supply > demand). The 3.1.1. ES supply
resulting ES balance maps show positive values where potential supply Results show that six of the ES investigated are in high supply in

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M. Feurer et al. Ecosystem Services 52 (2021) 101363

Fig. 2. Ecosystem service supply in Tanintharyi Region. Above: most likely ES supply values according to the models; below: corresponding evenness index repre­
senting uncertainty of those values (1 = maximum uncertainty, 0 = no uncertainty).

Tanintharyi, with values of ≥ 4 in most parts of the region (Fig. 2). in the area covered in the model and does not appear to reflect land use
Forest-related ES including fuelwood, medicinal plants, biodiversity, or soil properties.
climate regulation, and cultural identity are provided throughout Across all ES, we found a relatively low mean evenness index of 0.37,
Tanintharyi, with mean values of 4.5 and above and only a few low- indicating little variation in the probability distribution, hence the dis­
supply areas near roads and towns. Our findings reflect the strong link played values are relatively distinct from the other possible values. ES
between land use and ES provision, even though the models included with high supply values such as fuelwood, medicinal plants, or biodi­
other variables. Interestingly, although protected areas are often versity have few variations in their probability distributions and express
established with the goal of safeguarding regulating services, our find­ more certainty. Similarly, for all ES, areas with higher supply values
ings indicate that ES supply for local stakeholders is just as high outside correspond to lower uncertainties. Accordingly, lower supply values are
of those where forests remain intact. While the importance of forests and associated with higher uncertainties. The low supply values of com­
mangroves for providing regulating ES is evident, regulating ES are also mercial products and environmental education displayed are thus sub­
to some extent provided in areas dominated by agricultural plantations. ject to high uncertainties with mean evenness indexes of 0.68 and 0.64,
Subsistence foods are provided largely in agricultural areas but also in respectively. Due to these high variations in the distribution of probable
forested uplands, where shifting cultivation and gathering of non-wood values, it can thus be assumed that the maps of most likely values for
forest products still play an important role. The lowest supply by far was commercial products and environmental education supply depict a
found for commercial products (mean = 1.3), and they are confined to rather conservative picture.
agricultural and coastal lands. In coastal areas, mangroves provide
commercial products mainly in the form of fisheries. Although forests 3.1.2. ES demand
theoretically also provide timber and valuable non-wood forest prod­ Demand varies more than supply across the nine ES, particularly in
ucts, rural communities make little commercial use of those due to legal remote areas (Fig. 3). Higher population densities in urban and peri-
restrictions and limited marketing opportunities. Another noteworthy urban areas prompt a higher demand for ecosystem goods such as sub­
result is shown for environmental education. Even though the provision sistence foods, commercial products, fuelwood, and medicinal plants.
of educational services is limited overall (mean = 1.4), opportunities for Commercial products have a higher importance for the more market-
environmental or agricultural training exist both in sites with agricul­ oriented communities living near roads and towns. On the contrary,
tural development and in protected areas. The low supply of water biodiversity is valued more by rural communities, which depend largely
regulation in the highly forested area to the east may be surprising. on agriculture and natural forests for their livelihoods. The overall high
However, this can be explained by the comparatively low annual rainfall value of biodiversity (mean = 4.8) hinges on several variables included

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Fig. 3. Ecosystem service demand in Tanintharyi Region. Above: most likely ES demand values according to the models; below: corresponding evenness index
representing uncertainty of those values (1 = maximum uncertainty, 0 = no uncertainty).

in the model: direct use of non-wood forest products, indirect benefits more accessible due to physical proximity, largely flat terrain, and
through pollination, and intrinsic value. After biodiversity, local com­ existing infrastructure. Second, rural communities can readily make use
munities also have a strong demand for environmental education (4.1), of some ES including water, medicinal plants, and fuelwood, whereas
subsistence foods (3.9), water regulation (3.2), and fuelwood (3.1). The access to other ES is considerably more restricted. Our results further
results for subsistence foods and fuelwood shows that although popu­ illustrate the impact of zoning (protected areas, community forests,
lation density is low in remote areas, demand for ES remains high, as concessions) on local ES flows. The fact that local communities are often
these communities have limited access to markets and are dependent on prohibited from entering protected areas or concession lands limits their
subsistence products with few alternatives. What may be surprising is access to ES provided by these lands. The access limitations of conces­
the low result for both medicinal plants (1.1) and cultural identity (1.7). sion lands located in the South are well visible for provisioning services
This reflects the increasingly available and attractive alternatives, including commercial products and fuelwood and even cultural identity.
including modern medicine but also cultural attractions that are unre­ We found that protected areas, while not restricting cultural identity,
lated to nature. On the other hand, interpretation of the results in very have a similar effect on provisioning services. Limited access to
remote areas should take into account that internally displaced people conserved forest lands can thus reduce local ES outcomes from these
and other remote communities were not involved in developing the areas, at least temporarily.
model. This is underscored by the high uncertainty in demand values for The evenness index differs strongly across the nine ES. Displayed
cultural identity throughout the region, but particularly in remote areas. flow values of subsistence foods and climate regulation are relatively
Compared with supply, we also found a higher overall evenness distinct with a mean evenness index below 0.5. But flow values of me­
index across ES (mean = 0.63) and thus more uncertainties related to the dicinal plants, environmental education, and commercial products show
displayed demand values. The displayed low demand for cultural more variation in their probability distributions. The displayed values
identity, particularly in remote forested areas, is subject to high un­ are highly uncertain with respective mean indices of 0.9 and above. In
certainties. In contrast, a combination of high values and low uncer­ contrast to ES supply, a low evenness index (high certainty) does not
tainty was found for environmental education, confirming the correspond to high values for ES flows.
widespread demand also experienced during our field visits.

3.1.3. ES flow 3.2. Supply and demand balances

Our results illustrate two clear patterns of ES flow. First, flow is
higher near roads and settlements (Fig. 4). Naturally, these areas are Comparing the nine ES, results show that only biodiversity and
commercial products, at least in rural areas, are balanced, where supply

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M. Feurer et al. Ecosystem Services 52 (2021) 101363

Fig. 4. Ecosystem service flow in Tanintharyi Region. Above: most likely ES flow values according to the models; below: corresponding evenness index representing
uncertainty of those values (1 = maximum uncertainty, 0 = no uncertainty).

approximately covers local demand (Fig. 5). Medicinal plants and cul­ negative ES balances (-3). Water regulation, on the other hand, seems to
tural identity are oversupplied or underutilized. For all other ES we be balanced regionally. The only mismatch (-1) is found where annual
identified larger mismatch areas (supply < demand). Critical mis­ rainfall is comparatively low. But we also detected small patches with
matches were found for environmental education, which the commu­ stronger mismatches (-4) in some of the more developed zones. With the
nities interviewed often described as a major limitation, as well as high seasonality of rainfall in Tanintharyi, it is possible that certain
subsistence foods in large areas of Tanintharyi. Although these ES are in coastal areas face water scarcity particularly during the summer. Ac­
high demand by local stakeholders, supply is limited throughout the cording to our results, environmental education is the ES that is by far
region. Overall, map uncertainties (high evenness index) were found to the most affected by negative supply/demand balances. Demand for
be more common in areas that display a negative ES balance (a environmental education, which is heavily linked to agricultural and
mismatch). On the other hand, positive ES supply and demand balances environmental capacity building, is extremely high in both rural and
between 0 and 4 seem to be linked to higher map certainties (e.g. sub­ urban areas and is driven by people’s dependence on agriculture and
sistence foods, fuelwood, medicinal plants, climate regulation, envi­ natural resources for their livelihoods, a genuine interest and cultural
ronmental education). connection to the environment, and a generally strong desire to learn
Geographically, the most adversely affected areas are found along new things. But with no functioning extension services there are very
roads, in urban and peri-urban areas, and in sites facing agricultural few opportunities for smallholders to attend formal training. Notable
expansion. In contrast, large landscapes along the forested eastern exceptions with positive supply/demand balances are found in the two
border provide a local surplus in fuelwood, medicinal plants, climate protected areas (+1). This is linked to the fact that establishing a pro­
regulation, and cultural identity. tected area often involves capacity building activities on environmental
While large forest complexes in rural upland areas contribute to management and conservation. This is sometimes coupled with liveli­
climate regulation, this is not the case in large settlements, rice pro­ hood projects and agricultural training. On the other hand, there are few
ducing areas, and other bare lands, where the microclimate is often communities living within the protected areas, which leads to an over­
problematic during the summer. Towns and coastal sites with many fish proportioned supply. For subsistence foods, there is a distinct divide
factories experience reduced air quality. In addition, coastal regions are between balanced areas and those where local demand cannot be met
more directly affected by climate change through sea level rise and with local supply. Balanced areas are coastal and other low-lying areas
increased frequency and intensity of cyclones, and therefore people with adequate road networks where smallholder agriculture and paddy
living there may be more sensitized to climate issues. Thus, demand for fields are common. Proximity to roads and access to foods from markets
more trees in the landscape is highest in these areas, leading to strongly further reduces the need for these communities to produce their own

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M. Feurer et al. Ecosystem Services 52 (2021) 101363

Fig. 5. Ecosystem service balances (supply–demand) in Tanintharyi Region. Above: ES balances calculated as most likely supply values minus most likely demand
values, with red areas illustrating mismatches; below: classified evenness index calculated as the mean of supply and demand indices, representing uncertainty of the
mapped ES balance values (0 = no uncertainty, 1 = maximum uncertainty).

food. This is different in the hilly areas where forest landscapes domi­ (≤1). Areas with a high number of mismatches (7–8) are just as rare.
nate. The few communities living there rely on shifting cultivation and They are distinctly found in urban settings, e.g. in Dawei or Myeik, as
on the wild foods they can gather from forest and fallows. This is rep­ well as along roads and in recently emerging development areas, as
resented in only a slightly negative balance (− 1). More severe mis­ visible e.g. on the road to Thailand in the eastern part of the region. For
matches are admittedly found in oil palm concessions in Tanintharyi’s the areas in between, characterized as mosaic landscapes with remain­
southern part (− 3) and in some urban and peri-urban areas, especially ing natural forest patches interspersed with small-scale agriculture, we
around Dawei (− 4). Our results indicate that demand for subsistence found a limited number of mismatches ranging between 1 and 3. Simi­
foods cannot be covered in these highly populated areas, even with the larly, there was a rather low mismatch intensity in these mosaic land­
surrounding paddy fields. For fuelwood, another important subsistence scapes (Fig. 6, right), indicating that while there may be an undersupply
product for many, there is either a high surplus or a distinct lack thereof. of some services, it is not severe. Considering the higher mapping un­
Considering that both fuelwood and charcoal are by far the most com­ certainties for mismatches compared to positively balanced ES (Fig. 5),
mon types of fuel used by households in Tanintharyi, such distinct there is a possibility that the displayed frequency and intensity of mis­
positive or negative balances can be explained largely by the respective matches in Fig. 6 are slightly overestimated.
population densities. The high surplus in rural areas and unsatisfied Although both frequency and intensity of mismatches exhibit similar
demand in towns could increase trade in fuelwood and charcoal. patterns across the region, they are higher in urban and peri-urban areas
and in areas with infrastructure. They are lower in protected areas and
smallholder agricultural lands, but the mismatches are less pronounced
3.3. Regional and local supply/demand mismatches in intensity than in frequency (i.e. in number). Combining all nine ES,
we found up to 8 mismatches (mean = 3.9) in the study area, but with
3.3.1. Frequency and intensity of mismatches at regional scale intensities of a maximum of 23 out of a potential 32 (if all mismatches
Combining all models, we identified on average four ES across had the highest possible inversed value of 4) and a mean of 9.5. So, while
Tanintharyi for which mismatches (supply < demand) were present we identified several mismatches in large parts of Tanintharyi Region,
(Fig. 6, left). No mismatches were detected in some parts within the the overall low intensity of those relativizes the impact on local stake­
protected areas. Only one ES was undersupplied in most other parts in holders to a certain extent.
and around protected areas as well as in regions dominated by villages
and smallholder agriculture. However, overall, there are only few areas
in Tanintharyi Region with such a negligible number of mismatches

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M. Feurer et al. Ecosystem Services 52 (2021) 101363

Fig. 6. Frequency and intensity of mismatches in Tanintharyi Region (left: frequency of supply/demand mismatches calculated as the number of negative ES balance
values per raster cell; right: intensity of supply/demand mismatches calculated as the accumulated sum of negative ES balance values per raster cell).

3.3.2. Exploring mismatches in the context of two study sites betelnut, are linked to 2–3 low-intensity mismatches. Thus, although
Although differences exist between the nine ES, there are some areas they provide fewer regulating ES than the surrounding forests, these
within Tanintharyi Region that are affected more by supply/demand small-scale plantations are important for providing local communities
mismatches. These include urban and other developed areas along with commercial products, fuelwood, and even some non-wood forest
roadsides with agricultural and/or mining concessions. In this section, products such as foods or medicine. Overall, in study site A with its
we contextualize mismatches by zooming in on two study sites and mosaic of land uses and zoning arrangements, the most frequent mis­
inspecting ES mismatches in relation to land use and zoning. Fig. 7 matches were found for environmental education (69% of the area –
shows the distribution of mismatches in these sites in terms of frequency similar to regional level findings), followed by subsistence foods (26%)
and intensity. and biodiversity (18%).
Study site A in Yebyu township is characterized by several different Comparatively strong ES mismatches in urban areas are evident in
zoning arrangements and related land uses. It includes not only part of study site B, which encompasses the town of Myeik and its surroundings,
the Tanintharyi Nature Reserve and adjacent community forests, but which include paddy fields, mangroves, and some lowland forests and
also an oil palm concession amid smallholder rubber and mixed plan­ tree crop plantations. In all built-up areas we identified severe mis­
tations. Our results highlight first of all the importance of forest land­ matches, both in terms of frequency and intensity. In contrast to site A,
scapes in providing multiple and balanced ES, also at local scale. We even forested lands do not provide enough ES to compensate for this and
found that the number and intensity of mismatches is generally small in satisfy local demand. Considering that the large demand for ES in more
forest lands: in community forestry areas, there are no mismatches; in populated areas can hardly be covered with nearby supply areas, local
protected areas and other forested lands, there is one or more mis­ communities therefore depend more on alternatives to ES. As an
matches ranging in intensity from 1–4. Oil palm plantations, by contrast, example, with limited land availability and thus few options to generate
are linked to several and intense ES mismatches. Since these plantations income from commercial crops, more urban people depend on non-
are under concession management, it is not evident whether local small- agricultural jobs or businesses. Notable exceptions to the overall large
scale oil palm plantations would have fewer or less intense negative mismatch areas are the two relatively small community forests, one
effects on ES. What can be seen, though, is that concession areas not covering intact lowland forest and the other covering mangroves. Most
planted with oil palm still limit the number of ES provided to local areas of both community forests present only one mismatch. According
communities. For comparison, the scattered small-scale plantations in to Fig. 7, mangroves are related to fewer and particularly less intense
the area, mostly planted with rubber but also mixed with cashew and mismatches compared to other land uses. Based on previous findings

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M. Feurer et al. Ecosystem Services 52 (2021) 101363

Fig. 7. Ecosystem service supply/demand mismatches in terms of frequency (number of negative ES balance values per raster cell) and intensity (accumulated sum of
negative ES balance values per raster cell) in two study sites of Tanintharyi Region (A: rural area in Yebyu township, B: Myeik town and surrounding area).

(see Fig. 2 in Section 3.1.1), mangroves are important providers of more nuanced. Stakeholder-driven and holistic ES assessments can
regulating services including biodiversity and climate mitigation as well contribute to the discussion by looking beyond biodiversity and agri­
as cultural identity and diverse subsistence and commercial products cultural productivity (Grau et al., 2013). Mosaic landscapes that are
based on fisheries. Overall, a lower mismatch prevalence was found for common in forest frontiers offer vast opportunities for sustainable
biodiversity (1%) compared to study site A (18%). Apart from com­ development and the delivery of multiple ES (Muhamad et al., 2014;
mercial crops, which are undersupplied on 68% of the land area, study Pinillos et al., 2020; Tscharntke et al., 2005). Shifting cultivation, a
site B also faces a lack of environmental education (72%), subsistence traditional land use in Southeast Asian mosaic landscapes, also supports
foods (59%), fuelwood (53%), and climate regulation (45%). The un­ local livelihoods and ES outcomes where long fallow periods are upheld
dersupply of climate regulation can be attributed to the large green­ (Dressler et al., 2017). Our findings confirm the important role of these
house gas emissions from towns and abundant paddy fields, as well as frontiers in providing various ES, especially for local stakeholders.
the naturally high demand for a good microclimate in a city with low air Tanintharyi’s mosaic landscape provides not only several agricultural
quality. This is particularly true for Myeik, which has several fish fac­ subsistence and commercial products, but also many non-wood forest
tories, and while there are climate-regulating mangrove areas south of products and regulating services from remaining natural forests. Similar
Myeik, these provide only partial compensation. to our study area, Ahammad et al. (2019) found that rural and poor
communities in Bangladesh use forest products mainly for subsistence
4. Discussion rather than for income generation. Indeed, regulatory barriers limit
commercial use of forests by communities in Southeast Asia (Gritten
4.1. The role of forest frontier landscapes in providing local and global et al., 2015).
ecosystem services While forest and shifting cultivation lands are most closely linked to
the culture of rural communities, local stakeholders perceive that all
Debates on tropical forest frontier landscapes have long revolved lands contribute in some way to their cultural identity, even new crops
around land use trade-offs between agricultural production and envi­ like rubber (Feurer et al., 2019). Environmental education, also a cul­
ronmental conservation (Mastrangelo and Laterra, 2015; Verburg et al., tural ES, is less directly linked to land uses. In the applied models,
2014) or between customary and elite rights that benefit some stake­ traditional land uses are associated with informal knowledge exchanges,
holders while harming others (German et al., 2014; Schoneveld, 2014). while newer land uses or management forms such as community forestry
Land sparing versus land sharing policies are a critical point of debate in are linked to formal agricultural or silvicultural training. Traditional and
many developing countries (Mertz and Mertens, 2017), but the picture is indigenous knowledge contributes to the conservation and sustainable

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M. Feurer et al. Ecosystem Services 52 (2021) 101363

management of remaining natural forest and shifting cultivation areas agroforestry in landscapes enhances the variety of ES provided. Pinillos
(Siahaya et al., 2016), whereas formal education can enable the sus­ et al. (2020) suggest that the simultaneous delivery of multiple ES re­
tainable intensification of existing agricultural lands (Tscharntke et al., quires a combination of both land sharing and land sparing strategies.
2005), including agroforestry. Overall, it is evident that local ES benefits Modelling different policy scenarios in a frontier landscape in Indonesia,
go beyond biodiversity, climate regulation, and agricultural production, Law et al. (2017) found that mixed strategies were most effective in
and that they are key for all aspects of human well-being in forest supporting several provisioning and regulating ES, provided that
frontier landscapes. approximately one-third of the landscape was conserved for biodiver­
From a global perspective, larger forest complexes are critical for sity. While our research did not provide insights on potential scenarios,
non-material services. Our maps show a high supply of biodiversity and it did indicate that areas with a mosaic of land uses including small­
climate regulation, both of which are in severe decline across the globe holder plantations and natural forests cause fewer mismatches. Further,
(IPBES, 2019). While regulating ES are also highly valued by local our results provide evidence that land sparing, a concept founded on
stakeholders, the benefits perceived by them differ from those required ecological principles, can have strongly adverse social outcomes. Oil
at the global level. Considering climate services, for example, rural palm concessions presented low ES supply (and, consequently, more
communities perceive fewer direct benefits from carbon sequestration mismatches) and limited flows for local stakeholders. In high-supply
but appreciate a regulated microclimate and better air quality (Feurer areas, Boesing et al. (2020) suggest strengthening flows as a main goal
et al., 2019). They perceive climate services as regulating temperature in land sparing policies. In mixed landscapes, efforts need to focus more
and humidity at micro or regional scale (Haines-Young and Potschin, on increasing supply or lowering demand (ibid.). To achieve the highest
2018). In coastal areas, we found a higher local demand for climate local ES outcomes, we propose a holistic approach to landscape planning
regulation, which confirms the findings of Bennett et al. (2014) that that consists of some protected areas with well-defined, community-
coastal communities are more sensitive to the impacts of climate change. managed buffer zones and a mosaic of optimized smallholder agricul­
For rural households, biodiversity is represented through a variety of tural systems.
non-wood forest products, pollination services that support their agri­ Consistent with other studies (Baró et al., 2016; Burkhard et al.,
cultural livelihoods, and a safety net that gives them a sense of security. 2012), we found a higher number and intensity of mismatches in urban
Related to this, Feurer et al. (2019) found in Northern Tanintharyi that and peri-urban areas. Even though low urbanization rates have been
medicinal plants are valued for potential future benefits or in times of observed in Tanintharyi in the past, this could change once the Special
need, rather than for current use, and should therefore be conserved. Economic Zone in Dawei has been completed (Walsh, 2015), further
However, biodiversity conservation should go beyond implementing enhancing demand for ES. But towns generally provide more options on
large protected areas, as these often contain customary lands and could ES substitutes such as electric or gas stoves to replace fuelwood, or jobs
negatively affect the livelihoods of people living there (Schleicher et al., to reduce dependency on agricultural incomes, and so high mismatches
2019). Conservation must be coupled with adequate land management in urban areas may not have as much of an impact on local stakeholders
in surrounding areas, including buffer zones to ensure the long-term as estimated here. Globally, most efforts to enhance provision of ES in
availability of multiple ES and connecting elements to safeguard cities are related to green infrastructure including tree planting (Gene­
biodiversity at landscape scale (Kremen and Merenlender, 2018). letti et al., 2020). Additionally, small gardens and trees within housing
Acknowledging both that local communities are important actors in compounds can play a considerable role in securing some ES at local
frontier landscapes and that they highly value the various ES provided scale. In all three towns of Tanintharyi, we observed numerous home
(Muhamad et al., 2014), sustainable development planning and policy gardens, which provide the owners with subsistence foods, fruit for
must be participatory, include relevant customary land rights and religious ceremonies, as well as shade. However, due to their small scale,
practices (Dressler et al., 2017), and enable tenure security (Robinson these ES are not visible in our results and may have led to slightly
et al., 2014). overestimated mismatches in towns. Adjacent areas also need to be
considered when evaluating mismatches (Baró et al., 2016). Our find­
4.2. Options for reducing mismatches in affected areas ings indicate, however, that it is nearly impossible for a large population
in urban areas to cover their multiple ES demands with surrounding
Improving ES flows is critical in areas affected by high supply/de­ lands. As all towns in our study site are coastal, the value of mangroves is
mand mismatches, where the inability of local stakeholders to access evident. Mangrove forests have few mismatches and a portfolio of
service-providing areas reduces welfare (Kmoch et al., 2021) and, in the diverse ES, even storm protection (Richards and Friess, 2016), a crucial
long term, their adaptive capacities (Ensor et al., 2015), eventually service that was however not considered in our assessment. Mangroves
inducing conflicts. Sustainable planning for landscapes must consider are therefore integral for coastal urban planning. In sum, while urban
different stakeholder perspectives. Protected areas may hinder forest and peri-urban areas may not be able to reach balanced ES outcomes,
loss and conserve biodiversity, but their effectiveness strongly depends mismatches can be reduced to a certain extent, either by increasing
on their design, governance, restrictions (Schleicher et al., 2019), and supply (tree planting, home gardens, high-provisioning land uses sur­
other factors such as road networks, accessibility, and human pressure rounding urban spaces) or by reducing demand through improved ac­
(Leberger et al., 2020). In highly populated areas, rights-based ap­ cess to man-made alternatives and more sustainable technologies.
proaches to forest conservation can improve environmental and liveli­
hood outcomes simultaneously (Porter-Bolland et al., 2012). 4.3. Limitations, lessons learnt, and moving forward
Conservation should thus not be totally separated from sustainable use.
The example of community forestry in our study confirms that rights- Using comprehensive BN for nine ES, this study modelled and
based approaches can achieve multiple goals. Community forestry mapped their supply, demand, flow, and mismatches at a scale un­
areas were linked to fewer supply/demand mismatches than other land precedented for tropical regions. Data scarcity was addressed by
uses, including protected areas. Several other studies have also shown combining secondary data with qualitative data collected with different
the contribution of community forestry to rural livelihoods, poverty stakeholders across Tanintharyi Region. Our research aimed to adhere to
alleviation, erosion control, climate change mitigation and adaptation, the recommendations for ES mapping provided by Willemen et al.
and biodiversity (Birch et al., 2014; Feurer et al., 2018; Pandit and (2015), including robustness, stakeholder relevance, and transparency.
Bevilacqua, 2011). We found that the latter implies a modest trade-off with the former two,
In addition to forest-based land uses, Kremen and Merenlender as the inclusion of a wide range of variables and stakeholders inherently
(2018) suggest enhancing biodiversity in working agricultural lands, obscures ES models and reduces clarity for map users. For smaller-scale
while Reith et al. (2020) found that including large shares of studies and projects aiming to implement findings from ES assessments,

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M. Feurer et al. Ecosystem Services 52 (2021) 101363

a more holistic co-production of knowledge is recommended (Gritten related to land use but also to zoning and land tenure arrangements such
et al., 2015; Pandeya et al., 2016). as concession lands, protected areas, or community forests. Our results
Regional-level mapping still comes with some limitations on stake­ show that local stakeholder access to ES is restricted in oil palm con­
holder involvement. Although our results give a good overview of ES cessions and protected forests. This is also reflected in high mismatches.
outcomes for the majority of Tanintharyi’s highly diverse population On the other hand, community forests perform much better both in
(smallholder farmers, forest-dependent communities, and coastal resi­ terms of limited mismatches and secure ES flow.
dents), some groups may be underrepresented. Regional assessments, In addition to globally important ES such as biodiversity or climate
particularly those in ecologically and culturally diverse tropical frontier regulation, our comprehensive study highlights that local communities
landscapes, inherently face this challenge of representativeness, but we value subsistence products as well as educational services provided by
argue that they are nonetheless important baselines for landscape nature and related institutions. We contributed to ongoing ES research
planning and policy, provided that limitations are clearly communi­ by spatially applying complex BN for a data-scarce region. With a local
cated. Although data sets were available for several variables in stakeholder perspective, our findings confirm the importance of map­
Tanintharyi Region, our study faced limitations related to data quality ping mismatches, as these particularly affect ES outcomes for rural
and timeliness. Further, underlying assumptions of the models are pri­ communities. Regional assessments that consider mismatches can
marily based on qualitative data, which adds value but often implies inform potential policies or management interventions in a more tar­
more multifaceted outputs. In the absence of quantitative data, it can be geted way. With zoning and land tenure having an impact on both
assumed that such uncertainties widened the probability distributions of supply/demand mismatches and flow, we recommend that future ES
the results on ES supply, demand, and particularly flow. Mapping the research in tropical forest frontiers should always integrate the question
evenness index is useful as it discloses variations in the results and re­ of access and use rights. In future scenarios for Tanintharyi Region, local
flects, to a certain extent, these uncertainties. The overall high evenness rights to not only access but also manage land and natural resources are
indices for ES flows identified in this study confirm the difficulties of key to assessing and ensuring effective ES outcomes.
integrating flow and address equity in ES assessments (Ramirez-Gomez
et al., 2020) and call for more empirical evidence on the implications of Declaration of Competing Interest
zoning and tenure rights. Given the sensitivity of the results in respect to
model design and input data, the outputs should be regarded as ap­ The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
proximations of the actual situation and not as final values. interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
An advantage of BNs is that they can be easily updated once new data the work of this paper.
becomes available, and that temporal dynamics could be included, e.g.
with the gBay tool (Stritih et al., 2020). The inclusion of temporal dy­ References
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