HOME SCIENCE VOL. 385, NO.
6715 A 485-MILLION-YEAR HISTORY OF EARTH’S SURFACE TEMPERATURE
RESEARCH ARTICLE PALEOCLIMATE
A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature
EMILY J. JUDD
, JESSICA E. TIERNEY , DANIEL J. LUNT , ISABEL P. MONTAÑEZ , [...], AND PAUL J. VALDES +2 authors Authors Info & Affiliations
SCIENCE 20 Sep 2024 Vol 385, Issue 6715 DOI: 10.1126/science.adk3705
1
Editor’s summary
Understanding how global mean surface temperature (GMST) has varied over the past half-billion years, a time
in which evolutionary patterns of flora and fauna have had such an important influence on the evolution of cli-
mate, is essential for understanding the processes driving climate over that interval. Judd et al. present a record
of GMST over the past 485 million years that they constructed by combining proxy data with climate modeling
(see the Perspective by Mills). They found that GMST varied over a range from 11° to 36°C, with an “apparent”
climate sensitivity of ∼8°C, about two to three times what it is today. —Jesse Smith
Structured Abstract
INTRODUCTION
A long-term geological record of global mean surface temperature (GMST) is important for understanding the
history of our planet and putting present-day climate change into context. Such a record is necessary for con-
straining the relationship between climate and other aspects of the Earth system, including the evolution and
extinction of life, and the chemistry of the atmosphere and oceans. Further, quantifying the relationship be-
tween GMST and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations can refine our understanding of Earth’s cli-
mate sensitivity and improve future predictions under anthropogenic warming.
RATIONALE
Although several Phanerozoic (the last 539 million years) temperature reconstructions exist, during the inten-
sively studied Cenozoic Era (the last 66 million years), they are colder and less variable than individual esti-
mates from key time periods, particularly during ice-free (greenhouse) intervals. This discrepancy suggests
that existing Phanerozoic temperature records may underestimate past temperature change, and merits fur-
ther investigation using a new approach.
RESULTS
Here, we present PhanDA, a reconstruction of GMST spanning most of the Phanerozoic Eon. PhanDA was cre-
ated using data assimilation, a method that statistically integrates geological data with climate model simula-
tions. PhanDA indicates that Earth’s temperature has varied between 11° and 36°C over the past 485 million
years. This range is larger than previous reconstructions; however, PhanDA agrees well with independent
GMST estimates from the Cenozoic, providing confidence in its larger dynamical range.
PhanDA reveals key features in the relationship between GMST and the pole-to-equator temperature gradient,
including polar amplification (i.e., larger temperature changes at high latitudes) and a shallowing of the gradi-
ent with increasing GMST. Tropical temperatures range between 22° and 42°C, refuting the idea of a fixed up-
per limit on tropical warmth and suggesting that ancient life must have evolved to endure extreme heat. We
parse PhanDA into five climate states and find that overall, Earth has spent more time in warmer climate states
than cold ones during the Phanerozoic.
