SBI Wealth Investment Outlook - July 2024
SBI Wealth Investment Outlook - July 2024
July 2024
Market View
“The growth-inflation
balance is moving Markets ride on optimism post election results
favourably in line with our Indian equity markets showed significant positive movements in
projections. Resilient Jun’24, with both the Sensex and the Nifty50 ending with gains of
growth creates space for 6.9% and 6.6% MoM, respectively. These gains were influenced by
monetary policy to focus positive market sentiments and strong inflows from both foreign
unambiguously on institutional investors (FIIs: ₹26,565 crore) and domestic institutional
inflation which remains investors (DIIs: ₹28,633 crore).
well above the 4.0% The Indian bond market remained relatively flat in Jun’24, as the 10-
target. It is important that year Government of India (GOI) bond yield rose just 3 basis points
inflation is durably (bps) MoM to 7.01% on 28th Jun’24, as India's much-heralded
aligned to the target of inclusion in the JP Morgan EM Bond Index had a muted start.
4.0%. Price stability is the The RBI’s Jun’24 monetary policy emphasized focus on anchoring of
bedrock for high and inflation to its target level and fuller transmission of rate hikes. As per
sustainable growth.
- Shri Shaktikanta Das, ” the RBI, price stability and resilient growth have created space for the
monetary policy to focus unambiguously on inflation.
RBI Governor Commodities such as gold and silver have outperformed the equity
markets in CY’24 delivering double-digit returns in six months. While
silver delivered gains at 19%, gold has generated around 13% returns
Movement in Gold & Silver Prices so far in CY’24 (till 28th Jun’24).
100.0
The Nifty50 index has risen by 10.5% while the Nifty Midcap100 and
Nifty Smallcap250 indices have accelerated at 20.7% and 21.9%,
90.0 respectively, in CY’24 so far (till 28th Jun’24). The Indian stock market
90.3 stands poised for continued upward movement and potential growth,
80.0 76.0 driven by robust economic indicators and sector-specific
developments. Additionally, the market sentiment has been buoyed
70.0 by optimism around the country’s growth prospects after last month’s
63.2 71.7 general election results. Going forward, the direction is likely to be
determined by the outcome of the final budget for FY’25 to be
60.0
Dec-23 Jun-24 presented later this month and corporate earnings for Q1 FY’25.
Gold Silver Key sectors such as consumption, healthcare and financial services
Source: Bloomberg are likely to be in the spotlight while the large cap equity segment
Gold Prices / 10g, offers further room for growth on account of relatively lower valuations
Silver Prices / kg (in ₹ ’000)
as compared to the mid-cap and small-cap segments. Given this
Indian Indices Returns scenario, investors can consider staggering their investments in
Nifty 50 equity funds via SIP/STP. Further, with asset allocation being the
Nifty Midcap 100 120.7 key, investors may consider diversifying through hybrid funds
Nifty Smallcap 250 like the BAFs, Multi-Asset Funds, and Equity Savings Funds.
121.9 Within fixed income, aggressive investors can look at investing
in long duration bonds and gilt funds to benefit from future rate
cuts. Further, given the current flatness in the yield curve, short-
term rates look attractive, making investments in corporate bond
110.5
funds and short-duration funds lucrative.
3
Investment Outlook July 2024
Investment Allocation
Very Conservative 20% 30% 50%
Category Returns %
62.3
“
55.9
27.2
26.5
25.8
25.1
22.6
reason to save money
15.3
15.1
14.8
14.5
7.6
7.3
7.3
6.9
6.9
5.9
5.8
5.6
5.4
is to invest it.
Cash FI-ST
1 Years Absolute
FI - LT Eq - Large Eq - Mid C Eq - Small C
Cap
3 Years Annualized 5 Years Annualized
Gold
-Grant Cardone
”
Asset Class Historical Performance
Asset Class Cash FI-ST FI - LT Eq - Large Cap Eq - Mid C Eq - Small C Gold
Crisil Short Crisil Nifty
Crisil Liquid Nifty Midcap
Benchmark Term Bond Composite Nifty 50 Smallcap 250 Gold
Index 100 Index
Index Bond Index Index
CY'14 9.2% 10.5% 14.3% 31.4% 55.9% 69.6% 0.3%
CY'15 8.2% 8.7% 8.6% -4.1% 6.5% 10.2% -8.0%
CY'16 7.5% 9.8% 12.9% 3.0% 7.1% 0.4% 10.5%
CY'17 6.7% 6.0% 4.7% 28.6% 47.3% 57.3% 2.7%
CY'18 7.6% 6.7% 5.9% 3.2% -15.4% -26.8% 7.0%
CY'19 6.9% 9.5% 10.7% 12.0% -4.3% -8.3% 23.0%
CY'20 4.6% 10.4% 12.3% 14.9% 21.9% 25.1% 26.3%
CY'21 3.6% 4.4% 3.4% 24.1% 46.1% 61.9% -4.5%
CY'22 5.1% 3.6% 2.5% 4.3% 3.5% -3.6% 14.1%
CY'23 7.1% 7.3% 7.3% 20.0% 46.6% 48.1% 14.1%
MOM Returns 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 6.6% 7.8% 9.5% -0.8%
CY’24 YTD 3.7% 3.8% 4.5% 10.5% 20.7% 21.9% 13.1%
FY’25 YTD 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 7.5% 15.9% 19.4% 6.3%
1Y Absolute 7.3% 7.3% 7.6% 25.1% 55.9% 62.3% 22.6%
3Y CAGR 5.9% 5.8% 5.6% 15.1% 27.3% 26.5% 14.5%
5Y CAGR 5.4% 6.9% 6.9% 15.3% 25.8% 27.2% 14.8%
10Y CAGR 6.5% 7.5% 8.0% 12.2% 17.5% 16.0% 8.8%
Source : Crisil (Data used in this page is as on 30th June 2024)
Disclaimer: The above table is for Information and Illustration purposes only and should not be construed as Investment Advice.
4
Investment Outlook July 2024
5
Investment Outlook July 2024
FPIs Vs DIIs Activity ▪ The FIIs turned net buyers in the Indian
equity market to the tune of ₹26,565
128.5
streak.
102.6
42.6
6
Investment Outlook July 2024
7
Investment Outlook July 2024
%
6.70
▪ Money market rates remained range-bound as the
-1.8
6.35 three- and six-month certificate of deposits (CD)
6.82
-3.5 6.85 6.00 rates averaged 7.16% and 7.46%, respectively, in
Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun’24, compared to 7.21% and 7.47% in May'24.
Net Liquidity- LHS Call Rates-RHS ▪ Liquidity in the banking system reversed to
Source: RBI , Bloomberg surplus mode towards the end of Jun’24 on the
Trend in Benchmark CD Rates (%) back of government spending and maturity of
government securities. The RBI absorbed
₹79,987.28 crore of excess liquidity in the last 3
8.0
days of Jun’24.
7.8 7.53 ▪ As a counter measure, the RBI has conducted
7.5
Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRRR) auctions
7.13 every day in Jul’24 so far, in order to absorb
7.3 surplus liquidity from the banking system.
8
Investment Outlook July 2024
▪ India’s GST collection was recorded at ₹1.74 ▪ Growth in India's industrial production (IIP)
lakh crore in Jun’24, growing at 7.7% on YoY was at a 3-month low of 4.98% YoY in Apr’24
basis, while remaining flat on MoM basis. vs a revised growth of 5.40% YoY in Mar’24.
▪ Jun’24 YoY growth is notably less than the ▪ The growth rate for the three sectors, Mining,
12.4% and 10% increases recorded in Apr’24 Manufacturing, and Electricity stood at 6.7%,
and May’24, respectively. Further, growth in 3.9%, and 10.2% YoY, respectively.
Jun’24 gross GST revenues slowed to a three
▪ Within manufacturing, the growth rate of top
year-low i.e. the slowest pace since Jun’21.
three positive contributors to the growth of IIP
▪ However, collection in Q1 FY’25 has reached for Apr’24 were motor vehicles, trailers, and
₹5.57 lakh crore on account of improved semi-trailers at 11.4%, basic metals at 8.1%,
compliance and growing consumption. coke and refined petroleum products at 4.9%
on a YoY basis.
▪ The number of GST taxpayers has increased to
1.46 crore in Apr’24 from 1.05 crore as of ▪ The output of consumer durables grew by
Apr’18, growing by 39% over the six-year 9.8% during Apr’24 compared to a decline of
period. 2.3% in Apr’23.
9
Investment Outlook July 2024
Source: Bloomberg
10
Investment Outlook July 2024
Selected Approved Funds Trailing Point to Point Returns & Calendar Year
Performance is calculated as on Jun 28, 2024
Product Risk Rating (PRR) 1 Very Conservative 2 Conservative 3 Moderate 4 Aggressive 5 Very Aggressive
ICICI Prudential Bluechip Fund
PRODUCT RISK RATING 3 Large Cap
Anish Tawakley,
Expense Ratio
Fund Manager Vaibhav Dusad,
(%)
1.49 Calendar Year Performance %
Sharmila Dmello
Category Peer Group
Category benchmark Nifty 100 TRI Exit Load (%) Up to 365 days - 1% Period Fund
benchmark Average
11
Investment Outlook July 2024
Trailing Point to Point Returns & Calendar Year
SBI Contra Fund Performance is calculated as on Jun 28, 2024
PRODUCT RISK RATING 3 Value/Contra
Dinesh
Expense Ratio
Fund Manager Balachandran,
(%)
1.58 Calendar Year Performance %
Mohit Jain
Category Peer Group
Category benchmark BSE 500 * Exit Load (%) Up to 365 days - 1% Period Fund
benchmark Average
12
Investment Outlook July 2024
Trailing Point to Point Returns & Calendar Year
ICICI Prudential Equity & Debt Fund Performance is calculated as on Jun 28, 2024
PRODUCT RISK RATING 3 Aggressive
Manish Banthia, Mittul
Kalawadia, Sankaran Naren, Expense
Fund Manager 1.62 Calendar Year Performance %
Sharmila Dmello, Sri Sharma, Ratio (%)
Akhil Kakkar
CRISIL Hybrid 35+65 - Category Peer Group
Category benchmark Exit Load (%) Up to 365 days - 1% Period Fund
Aggressive Index benchmark Average
Month-end AUM in ₹ Inception YTD 15.86 11.86 14.97
3-Nov-99
Crs* 35,122 Date 2023 28.25 18.41 21.24
Performance Section 2022 11.70 4.79 2.97
Category Peer Group
Trailing Point to Point Returns (%) Fund
benchmark Average 2021 41.70 19.74 26.06
3 months 6.48 7.42 9.84 Rolling Return Performance (%)
6 months 15.86 11.86 14.97 3 years 22.88 15.28 16.56
1 year 37.82 25.46 31.03 5 years 13.49 11.74 10.26
3 years 24.43 14.50 16.25 Returns less than 1 year are absolute, while > = 1 year are annualised
5 years 21.20 15.34 16.32 Peer Group Average represented by Aggressive hybrid fund universe
Inception 15.62 NA 14.14
Sector Allocation (% to NAV) *
Top 5 Holdings * % to NAV Financials 19.8
18.4
National Thermal Power Corporation Ltd. 7.22 Consumer Discretionary 10.8
12.2
ICICI Bank Ltd. 6.88 Utilities 7.2
7.6
Bharti Airtel Ltd. 4.60 6.9
Energy 7.7
HDFC Bank Ltd. 4.56 6.2
Health Care 5.2
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. 4.52
0 5 10 15 20 25
May-24 3 Months Ago (Feb'24)
The scheme’s equity exposure ranges between 65- 80%, while debt exposure is maintained between 20-35%. The net equity
level of the scheme is based on its in-house price to book model and stands at 73.3% as on the portfolio dated 31st May’24.
In case of debt, tactical allocation is done to longer-duration fixed-income securities with a credit rating of AA and above,
which offer relatively higher accruals. The fund has consistently outperformed its peer group across various time horizons.
Since inception, the return of the fund till 28th Jun’24 stands at 15.62% CAGR, as against the average peer group return of
14.14% CAGR for the same period.
^CRISIL Hybrid 50+50-Moderate index, taken for benchmark comparison due to non availability of values of actual benchmark
It has complete flexibility to manoeuvre assets in the range of 0–100% across various asset classes best suited in a volatile
equity market with the aim of capturing the potential upside and limiting the downside. The net equity level of the scheme as
on the portfolio dated 31st May’24 stands at 34.14% marginally changed from the portfolio dated 31st Apr’24. The average
maturity and YTM of the debt component stands at 7.37 years and 7.54% respectively, as on the portfolio dated 31st May’24
as against 8.79 years and 7.65%, respectively, as on the portfolio dated 30th Apr’24. One year return of the fund as on 28th
Jun’24 stands at 23.47% absolute, as against the benchmark return of 21.17% absolute for the same period. *As on May 31, 2024
.
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Investment Outlook July 2024
Trailing Point to Point Returns & Calendar Year
ICICI Prudential Equity Savings Fund Performance is calculated as on Jun 28, 2024
PRODUCT RISK RATING 3 Equity Savings
Dharmesh Kakkad, Manish
Banthia, Ritesh Lunawat, Expense
Fund Manager Sharmila Dmello, Sri Sharma,
0.97 Calendar Year Performance %
Ratio (%)
Kaivalya Nadkarni, Archana Nair
0 10 20 30
May-24 3 Months Ago (Feb'24)
*CRISIL equity saving index, taken for benchmark comparison due to non availability of values of actual benchmark
The fund seeks to provide an optimal mix of equity, debt, and arbitrage opportunities. It endeavours to take concentrated bets
in a few stocks from different sectors with an aim to keep portfolio beta low. To generate accrual income, it seeks to maintain
10% in the covered call option. Key advantages of the fund include lower volatility than equity funds, higher potential returns
than debt funds, and tax efficiency of equity funds.
SBI Multi Asset Allocation Fund
PRODUCT RISK RATING 3 Multi Asset Allocation
Dinesh Balachandran,
Expense Ratio
Fund Manager Mansi Sajeja, Pradeep
(%)
1.49 Calendar Year Performance %
Kesavan, Vandna Soni
The fund invests in multiple asset classes such as equity, debt, and gold and gold-related instruments, including ETFs and
such other asset classes as permitted by SEBI from time to time. It has allocated a minimum 10% exposure to debt, equity,
and gold at all points of time. As a part of its investment strategy, Gold as a percentage of total assets under management has
increased to 13.18% as on portfolio dated 31st May’24 as against 10.7% as per 29th Feb’24 portfolio. The scheme is eligible
for indexation benefit as the net equity exposure of the scheme is between 35-65%. Thus, if held for a horizon of over 3 years,
one can claim the indexation benefit and thus higher post-tax returns.
*As on May 31, 2024
14
Investment Outlook July 2024
Trailing Point to Point Returns & Calendar Year
SBI Arbitrage Opportunities Fund Performance is calculated as on Jun 28, 2024
The scheme offers higher post-tax returns as compared to liquid funds due to equity taxation. The fund seeks to generate
capital appreciation and income by predominantly investing in arbitrage opportunities in the cash and derivatives segment of
the equity market, and by investing the balance in debt and money market instruments. The fund has no duration or credit
risk. Since inception, the return of the fund till 28th Jun’24 stands at 6.73% CAGR as against the peer group return of 5.78%
CAGR for the same period.
The scheme follows a roll-down strategy, with a 7-year Macaulay duration as the floor for a reset. It invests around 85-90% of
the portfolio in GOI bonds maturing between 2050-2062, and the balance 10-15% is invested in 10–15-year GOI bonds to
enhance the portfolio liquidity.
*As on May 31, 2024
15
Investment Outlook July 2024
Thematic Other
ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund - Growth 19792 9.20 17.20 46.29 37.42 28.70 24.51 NA
SBI Magnum Global Fund - Growth 6366 8.79 6.77 16.68 19.95 12.79 17.14 14.25
Focused Funds
HDFC Focused 30 Fund - Growth 11946 12.74 19.86 44.90 36.42 28.75 21.08 14.40
ICICI Prudential Focused Equity Fund - Growth 8139 11.22 23.78 46.98 35.13 23.62 22.23 15.27
Franklin India Focused Equity Fund - Growth 11443 11.46 19.79 38.93 32.10 21.27 19.72 17.26
Index Funds
SBI Nifty Index Fund - Growth 7431 7.98 10.74 27.43 23.79 15.65 15.75 12.67
UTI Nifty Index Fund - Growth 16925 7.98 10.77 27.59 24.00 15.88 16.22 13.28
16
Investment Outlook July 2024
ICICI Prudential Equity & Debt Fund - Growth 35122 6.48 15.75 38.70 29.28 24.09 21.20 16.63
UTI Aggressive Hybrid Fund - Growth 5512 10.63 15.63 34.26 27.21 18.71 17.59 12.96
HDFC Balanced Advantage Fund - Growth 86471 9.31 15.35 41.02 32.78 23.99 18.96 15.24
ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund - Growth 56750 4.55 9.44 21.58 17.36 13.26 13.27 11.81
ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund - Growth 41160 7.06 13.97 33.09 27.16 23.11 19.94 15.05
SBI Multi Asset Allocation Fund - Growth 4943 8.92 11.38 29.19 23.24 15.44 14.83 11.70
Kotak Debt Hybrid - Growth 2478 4.43 7.80 16.74 14.63 10.82 11.70 10.15
SBI Conservative Hybrid Fund - Growth 9824 5.14 8.14 14.79 13.57 10.73 11.18 9.91
Kotak Equity Savings Fund - Growth 5606 4.49 8.44 19.41 15.76 12.26 11.27 NA
SBI Equity Savings Fund - Regular Plan - Growth 4701 5.99 8.21 18.84 16.13 10.79 11.33 NA
HDFC Equity Savings Fund - Growth 4307 3.96 7.82 17.88 15.02 10.71 10.68 9.57
Arbitrage Funds
Kotak Equity Arbitrage Fund - Growth 46308 1.99 4.23 8.00 7.09 5.99 5.44 6.08
ICICI Prudential Equity - Arbitrage Fund - Growth 20894 1.87 3.97 7.66 6.83 5.71 5.24 5.93
Invesco India Arbitrage Fund - Growth 16105 1.92 4.04 7.77 7.12 6.04 5.43 5.96
SBI Arbitrage Opportunities Fund - Growth 31116 1.91 4.01 7.67 7.07 6.03 5.25 5.89
UTI Money Market Fund - Regular Plan - Growth 14121 7.32 7.73 7.53 7.18 6.04 5.96 6.88
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund - Growth 18252 6.90 7.62 7.32 7.68 5.98 7.04 7.64
Canara Robeco Savings Fund - Growth 884 7.00 7.26 7.07 6.68 5.44 5.62 6.72
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund - Growth 19172 7.53 7.95 7.75 7.88 6.01 6.57 7.39
Aditya Birla Sun Life Corporate Bond Fund - Growth 22042 7.26 8.26 7.54 7.49 5.89 7.16 7.88
HDFC Corporate Bond Fund - Growth 28959 7.45 8.37 7.55 7.53 5.69 7.00 7.80
ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund - Growth 27286 7.23 7.78 7.55 7.73 6.06 7.08 7.61
Aditya Birla Banking & PSU Debt Fund - Growth 10111 6.85 7.56 6.95 6.78 5.48 6.70 7.78
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund - Growth 9404 6.99 7.72 7.38 7.49 5.94 6.77 7.65
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund - Growth 12571 6.88 7.72 7.31 8.20 6.09 7.39 8.59
SBI Dynamic Bond Fund - Regular Plan - Growth 3094 6.76 9.48 7.26 7.78 5.84 6.73 7.89
17
Investment Outlook July 2024
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Sources: SBI Wealth Research, SBI Economics Research Department (ERD), SBICAP Securities, CRISIL
Research, RBI, Bloomberg, NSE India, CMIE, Reuters, International Monetary Fund, Election Commission of
India, Energy Intelligence Group, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, National Statistical Office.
All data used in this report is as on 30th June 2024 unless otherwise specified.
18
Contact details of AGM & Zonal Head
Nameofthe Circle Nameof theWealth Circle Head Contact Number E-mail
Ahmedabad Shri. Kartik Kumar Singh 7600038022 [email protected]
Amaravati Shri. Sanjay Kumar Jha 9478580869 [email protected]
Bengaluru Shri. Raghavendra Rao M D 9480810234 [email protected]
Bhopal Shri. Rajbhushan Azad 9907380007 [email protected]
Bhubaneswar Shri. Ajit Kumar Sahoo 9562223136 [email protected]
Chandigarh Shri. B K Ladha 9815128813 [email protected]
Chennai Shri. Raja Venkatasubramanian 9445865795 [email protected]
Hyderabad Shri. Hari Prasad Mandla 9004088815 [email protected]
Jaipur Shri. Hemant Sharma 8003093173 [email protected]
Kolkata Smt. Rachana Sinha 9674710389 [email protected]
Lucknow Ms. Ranjeetha Singh 9793374236 [email protected]
Maharashtra Shri. Vineet Kumar 9699869911 [email protected]
Mumbai (metro) Smt. Bharati N Jadhav 7506358199 [email protected]
New Delhi Shri. Netra Pal Singh 8077856739 [email protected]
Guwahati Shri. Naba Jyoti Borah 8811060114 [email protected]
Patna Smt. Gunjan 7484841904 [email protected]
Thiruvanathapuram Shri. Ajith Kumar T P 9867708560 [email protected]
Name of the Zone Name of the Zonal Head Contact Number E-mail
Zonal Head - South Shri. Sriram S 9940035020 [email protected]
Zonal Head – North Shri. Sharad Kumar 9376916607 [email protected]
Zonal Head- East Shri. Deepak Mishra 9674713795 [email protected]
Notes