Cut-off Low Pressure Systems in South Africa
1. Introduction
- Cut-off lows (COLs) are cold-cored, synoptic-scale, mid-tropospheric low-pressure systems
- Occur in mid-latitudes (30° to 60° N/S) and extending to the subtropics (20° to 35° N/S)
- Cut-off low (COL) pressure systems produce severe weather, heavy rainfall, and socio-economic disruptions
- Regularly affect certain parts of SA and lead to flooding and devastation, impacting lives and livelihoods
2. Characteristics of COLs
- Cold-cored, mid-tropospheric low-pressure systems
- Occur in mid-latitudes (30ºS-60ºS) in SA
- Slow W to E system movement leading to persistent abnormal weather conditions for 3-4 days
- Cause persistent heavy rainfall, extreme cold conditions and snowfalls
- Occur year-round with a peak in autumn (March-May) and a secondary peak in spring (September-November)
- Typically defined as closed circulations at 500 hPa and between 200-300 hPa
3. Formation of COLs
- Often develop behind blocking highs over the Indian Ocean in SA
- Occur in the upper air levels in the presence of a surface ridging anticyclone particularly SAHP
- Usually become isolated from the westerlies and displaced towards equator
- Strong uplift of moisture by convections which mixes with cold air at higher altitudes
- Results in strong cyclonic circulations in the middle and upper troposphere
- Form as separate (closed) low systems extending towards the surface
- Increased formation of severe weather (thunderstorms, strong winds, heavy rain, hail, snow)
- Influence of Stratosphere-Troposphere interactions and jet streams can accelerate the formation of stalled low-
pressure systems or COL’s
X
C
Figure 1 - Formation of a COL on synoptic chart - South African Weather Service (2015)
Synoptic Chart Development
1. SAHP and SIHP position increasing surface ridging along dotted lines in Figure 1 (a)
2. Low pressure cyclonic circulations in the middle and upper troposphere as separate (closed) low systems
extending towards the surface (X) in Figure 1 (a)
3. COL formation evident at (C) as indicated in Figure 1 (b)
COL - Life Cycle Stages
1 2 Life Cycle stages of COLs
1. Development of an upper-level trough
and temperature wave
2. Detachment from the westerly wave
(tear-off stage)
3. Independent equatorward movement
of cold air (cut-off stage)
3 4
4. Dissipation and merging with a deep
trough in the westerly jet (final stage)
Figure 2 - Life cycle stages of COL - Nieto_et_al_ANYAS_2008
4. Effects of COLs on ocean climate and seasonal rainfall
- Warm Indian Ocean to the east and cold South Atlantic Ocean to the west create spatial rainfall gradients
- Warm Agulhas current in the east leads to subhumid climate
- Cold Benguela current in the west results in arid conditions
- Contribute significantly to annual rainfall, particularly in spring and autumn
- Southwest and coastal regions receive significant winter rainfall
- Eastern Cape Province is most frequently affected by COL landfalls and heavy rainfall
5. COL Frequency in Southern Africa
- Southern Africa has the lowest number of COL occurrences, but intense COLs cause extreme rainfall events
- Most frequent during transition seasons: March-April-May and September-October-November
- Approximately 11 COLs make landfall in South Africa annually
- Studies on COLs in the Southern Hemisphere have increased over the years
- South Africa's complex topography, including a steep coastal escarpment and high inland plateau, influences
COL occurrence and modification
- Orographic forcing due to elevated escarpments enhances lifting and deep convection during COL events
- Low-level jets and cloud bands impinging on the escarpment can lead to extreme rainfall and flooding
- Different characteristics of COLs are observed in various regions of South Africa
6. Impacts of COLs
Impact Types of Damage
Environmental and Weather - large scale flooding especially in low level
- snowfall, flash floods, mudslides
- damage to river estuaries and habitats
Human and Socio-Economic Impacts - claim lives and displace thousands
- negative impacts on infrastructure and agriculture
- increase in water-borne diseases
- disruptions of power stations
- disruptions in mostly informal settlements and communities
Infrastructure Damage and Economic Impacts - widespread flooding damages bridges, roads (national disaster)
- severe infrastructure damage and economic activities
- disruption of transportation and electricity supply
- loss of livestock in extreme cold
7. Case Studies - Summary
Case Study 1 Case Study 2 Case Study 3
Location East London, Eastern Cape NE sections of KwaZulu-Natal Large areas of Eastern Cape
Date 14 to 17 August 2002 22 to 25 April 2019 31 May to 2 June 2024
Event - intense COL over EC - slow-propagating COL during - intense COL over EC
Description: - 4 times monthly ave in 24 hrs - above average rainfall - over 165mm in 24 hrs
Weather Data 317.2mm rainfall 15/08/2002 Rainfall 150–200mm in 48 hrs 287.2 mm rainfall in 48 hrs
Factors - high moisture uplift due to - presence of Type S ridging - high moisture uplift due to
Contributing low pressure aloft high pressure system at the convection movement
to Intensity - low surface temperatures surface - low surface temperatures
- high convection rates - high convection rates
- low-level jet impinged on the
escarpment, enhancing
lifting and convection
Impacts: - 14 fatalities - 80 fatalities - 43 fatalities
- 3000 left homeless - damage to infrastructure - 2,000 evacuated people
- estimated damage cost: - settlements, roads, electricity - wind damage to infrastructure
ZAR 2 million - severe flooding, mudslides - settlements, roads, water,
- loss of businesses and electricity supply damage
Figure 3 - COL formation 14-17 August 2002 Figure 4 - COL formation during 22-24 April 2019
8. Challenges, Future Research and Interest in COLs
Challenges
- Lack of efficient tools and effective warning methods
- Irregular trajectories pose challenges for accurate rainfall and position forecasts
- Need for improvement in early warning systems and communication of climate information
- Each COL occurrence over South Africa has unique characteristics and impacts, contributing to harsh conditions
- Anomalously in high rainfall during COL occurrences
Future Research
- Understanding COL characteristics crucial for numerical weather and climate predictions
- Climate models used to simulate COLs with increased frequency and accuracy
- Models like WRF successfully capture COLs’ seasonal and annual climatology
- More studies needed on climatology and model forecasting of COLs using recent high-resolution reanalyses
- Urban planners and disaster managers urged to review infrastructure in vulnerable coastal areas for natural
disaster risk reduction
- Adaptation to climate stresses hindered by poverty, political instability, and civil war
Interest
- Growing interest in COLs from forecasting and research communities
- Timely and accurate weather warnings crucial to mitigate weather-related deaths
9. Research Article Links
Article 1 - Cut-Off Lows over South Africa: A Review
Article 2 - Cape storm: A dynamical study of a cut-off low and its impact on South Africa
Article 3 - Cut-off Lows in the South Africa region and their contribution to precipitation
Article 4 - Cut-off Low Pressure Systems - EUMeTrain
10. Video links
Video 1 - Weather forecast SAWS - 03/12/2021
Video 2 - KZN Floods - 2022 - Dr Christien Engelbrecht
Video 3 - Adverse Weather - Meteorologist, Mpumelelo Manyathi
Video 4 - 1-2 June 2024 | Vox Weather WEEKEND Forecast
11. Abbreviations
COL(s) - cut off low(s)
SA - South Africa
SAHP - South Atlantic High Pressure
SIHP - South Atlantic High Pressure
hPa - hectopascals
GPH - geopotential height (actual height of a pressure surface above mean sea-level)
WRF - Weather Research and Forecasting model (mesoscale numerical weather prediction for both atmospheric
research and operational forecasting applications)
Adapted from : Cut-Off Lows over South Africa: A Review (MDPI) - Nkosinathi G. Xulu, Hector Chikoore et al
Craig Giese : Merrifield College : 11.06.2024
