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57 views20 pagesChapter 6 - Statistical Distributions (Stats1)
Alevel edexcel pearson
Uploaded by
yw7vtvghrpCopyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Chapter 6: Probability Distributions
lcelae anus hel
7 ae “I toss an unfair coin, with probability
Given that P(X = x) = = find th
ae (X = x) = 5 find the heads of 0.6, 10 times. What's the
value of probability | see 5 heads?”
ERO Ceo ake od
““ toss an unfair coin, with probability
heads of 0.6, 10 times. What's the
probability | see at most 3 heads?”
Probability distributions
You are already familiar with the concept of variable in statistics: a collection of
values (e.g. favourite colour of students in the room):
x red green blue orange
P(X=x)[ 03 04 o1 0.2
If each is assigned a probability of occurring, it becomes a random variable
Arandom variable X represents a single experiment/trial. It
consists of outcomes with a probability for each.
i.e. X is a random variable (capital
letter), but x is a particular outcome.
P(X =x) : :
“The probability that... ~-the outcome of the _.was the specific
random variable X... outcome x”
A shorthand for P(X = x) is.” p(x) (note the lowercase p).
It's like saying “the probability that the outcome of my coin throw was heads”
(P(X = heads)) vs “the probability of heads” (p(heads)) Probability Distributions vs Probability Functions
There are two ways to write the mapping from outcomes to probabilities:
The “{* means we have a ‘piecewise function’
This just simply means we choose the
function from a list depending on the input.
Asa function:
p(x)
0.1x, x = 1,2,3,4
0, otherwise
Asa table:
p(x)
The random variable X represents the number of tails when three coins are tossed.
Write down the probability distribution as a table and as a function. Discrete Uniform Distribution
We can also represent a probability distribution graphically:
P(x)
= The throw of a die is an example of a
= discrete uniform dist because the
6 probability of each outcome is the same.
x
ee
= = 2 a 4 5 6
P(X =x)
Probabilities add to 1
1. A discrete random variable Xhas the probability function
par=x)= [H-9 x=-1, 0, land?
0 otherwise.
(@) Show that k=
a
6
Pe) Probability of a Range
x 2 3 4 5
p(x)| 0.1 0.3 0.2 04
Determine:
P(X >3)=
P(26)=
Your Turn
A biased four-sided dice with faces numbered 1, 2, 3 and 4s rolled. The number on
the top-most face is modelled as a random variable X.
Given that P(X = x) = “
a) Find the value of k
b) Give the probability distribution of X in table form
i)1 2
ii) xX>4
Ex 6A (not 11 or 12) Trickier problems
This spinner is spun until it lands on red or has been spun four times in total.
Find the probability distribution of the random variable 5, the number of times the
spinner is spun.
Ex 6A Q11
Mixed Ex 6 Q6
5. A biased spinner can only land on one of the numbers 1, 2, 3 or 4. The random variable Y_
represents the number that the spinner lands on after a single spin and P(X =r) = P= r + 2)
forr=1,2
Given that P(X = 2) = 0.35
(a) find the complete probability distribution of X.
Ambroh-spins the spinner 6o-times.
Give prurient nunitien tate,
12
The random variable Y= >>
(©) Find PC’-X'< 4) ‘A spinner is designed so that the score S is given by the following probability distribution.
s 0 1 2 4 7
PS=s) | p 02s | 025 | 020 | 0.20
(@) Find the value of p.
@
‘Tom and Jess play a game with this spinner. The spinner is spun repeatedly and counters are
awarded on the outcome of each spin. If 5 is even then Tom receives the counters and if S is odd
then Jess receives them. The first player to collect 10 or more counters is the winner.
(©) Find the probability that Jess wins after 2 spins.
@
(Find the probability that Tom wins after exactly 3 spins.
@
(g) Find the probability that Jess wins after exactly 3 spins.
@) Extra Questions - exam style
‘The discrete random variable X‘has probability distribution given by
x -1 0 ii
P(X=x) a a
8
where a is a constant.
(a) Find the value of a.
(6) The random variable Y= 6 — 2X.
Calculate POX ¥). The discrete random variable X has probability function
kQ-x) x=0,1,2
PX=x)=4 k(x-2) x=3
0 otherwise
where £ is a positive constant.
(a) Show that k= 0.
Two independent observations X, and X, are made of X.
(b) Show that PCY, +X, =5)=0
(©) Find the complete probability function for X, +X).
(d) Find PU3 < X, +X; <3.2)
@
@
@)
Q)
(Total 8 marks) ‘The discrete random variable X has the probability distribution
x
2
3
P=)
2k
3k
4k
(@) Show that k= 0.1
a
‘Two independent observations Xi and X2 are made of X.
(©) Show that POM +X: oO
@
(/) Complete the probability distribution table for Xi +2
@
y 2 3 4 5 6 7
PO +%=y) | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.10 0.25 | 0.24
(g) Find POLS <¥1 +4 53.5)
@ A fair blue die has faces numbered 1, 1, 3, 3, 5 and 5. The random variable B represents the score
‘when the blue die is rolled,
(a) Write down the probability distribution for B.
@
(®) State the name of this probability distribution.
a
‘A second die is red and the random variable 2 represents the score when the red dic is rolled.
‘The probability distribution of Ris
ja 2 4 «|
PR=n) u :
a 3 6 6
‘Tom invites Avisha to play a game with these dice.
‘Tom spins a fair coin with one side labelled 2 and the other side labelled 5. When Avisha sees
the number showing on the coin she then chooses one of the dice and rolls it. If the number
showing on the die is greater than the number showing on the coin, Avisha wins, otherwise Tom
Avisha chooses the die which gives her the best chance of winning each time Tom spins the coin.
(D Find the probability that Avisha wins the game, stating clearly which die she should use in
‘each case.
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(econ esa eve NB233 8.80)
(stew ae 0817)
a
a Probability experiments with multiple trials
Suppose the probability that I successfully win a game is 0.25.
If | play the game 3 times, what is the probability that | win exactly once?
Trial 2
Trial 3
a
3
=
Suppose the probability that I successfully win a game is 0.3.
If I play the game 4 times, what is the probability that I win exactly three times? Suppose the probability that I successfully win a game is 0.4.
If I play the game 5 times, what is the probability that I win exactly twice?
33 ii? gill
|
Ee} A
LxTx] Be
mE
ie
L«Tx[x]
What's the pattern?
How can we predict the number of
different ways of achieving a certain
number of successes? The Binomial Distribution
: oe (9)
74 ee @) @
_ 2. oil © @ ©
ee @ @ @
7 4°56 4 7 Doo @ @
Suppose | was playing a game 15 times.
How many different ways are there of me winning exactly 5 times?
Given that the probability of me winning is 0.36, what is the probability that | win exactly
5 of the 15 games?
The Binomial Distribution - definition
# You can model a random variable X with a binomial distribution B(n, p) if
+ there are a fixed number of trials, n, in the example below,
+ there are two possible outcomes: ‘success’ and ‘failure’, ~~ ‘success’ was ‘eft
+ there is a fixed probability of success, p handed’
‘+ the trials are independent of each other
r'is the number of
successes out of n.
If X~B(n,p) then:
Pear) = ("pa py"
distribution”
On a table of 8 family members, 6 people are left handed.
a) Suggest a suitable model for a random variable X: the number of left-handed people
ina group of 8, where the probability of being left-handed is 0.1.
b) Find the probability 6 people are left handed.
©) Suggest why the chosen model may not have been appropriate. The random variable X~B (12,2). Find:
a) P(X =2)
b) P(X =9)
c) PX <1)
Accompany claims that a quarter of the bolts sent to them are faulty. To test this claim
the number of faulty bolts in a random sample of 40 is recorded.
(a) Give two reasons why a binomial distribution may be a suitable model for the
number of faulty bolts in the sample.
(b) Find the probability that exactly 10 of them are faulty. Records kept in a hospital show that 3 out of every 10 patients who visit the accident
and emergency department have to wait more than 30 minutes. Find, to 3 decimal
places, the probability that of the first 12 patients who come to the accident and
emergency department:
a) None have to wait longer than 30 minutes
b) Exactly 4 have to wait more than 30 minutes
Your Turn
Pl) X~B(6,0.2)
What is P(X = 2)? What is P(X > 5)?
Ihave a bag of 2 red and 8 white balls. X represents the number of
red balls | chose after 5 selections (with replacement).
[Bi] How is X distributed?
[By] Determine the probability that I chose 3 red balls.
Ex 6B Cumulative Probabilities
Often we wish to find the probability of a range of values.
For a Binomial distribution, this was relatively easy if the range was narrow, e.g.
P(X <1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1), but would be much more computationally
expensive if we wanted say P(X < 6).
If X~B(10,0.3), find P(X < 6).
How to calculate on your calculator: Using tables
Press Menu then ‘Distributions’. Look up n = 10 and the column p = 0.3.
Choose “Binomial CD” (the C stands for Then look up the row x = 6.
‘Cumulative’). The value should be 0.9894.
Choose ‘Variable’.
x=6
N 0
p=03
Pressing = gives the desired value.
Note: The Classwiz calculator ALWAYS does X < N rather than X < N or X > Nor X2N.
‘The graphics calculator can choose upper and lower limits, but are always inclusive, i.e. M < X 15) = The random variable M~B(25, 0.25).
Find:
P(M > 20) =
P(67)= P(20
