WEEK V
DEVELOPING A PROJECT PLAN
PROJECT MANAGEMENT – INTERNATIONAL TRADE
BY OYS
COURSE OUTLINE:
I. Developing the Project Network
II. From Work Package to Network
III. Constructing a Project Network
IV. Activity-on-Node (AON) Fundamentals
V. Network Computation Process
VI. Using the Forward & Backward Pass
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
1. Understand the linkage between WBS and the project network.
2. Diagram a project network using AON methods.
3. Calculate early, late, and slack activity times.
4. Identify and understand the importance of managing the critical
path.
5. Distinguish free slack from total slack.
6. Demonstrate understanding and application of lags in compressing
projects or constraining the start or finish of an activity.
I. DEVELOPING THE PROJECT NETWORK
The project network is the tool used for planning, scheduling, and
monitoring project progress, and developed from the information
collected for the WBS and is a graphic flow chart of the project job
plan.
The network depicts the project activities that must be completed, the
logical sequences, the interdependencies of the activities to be
completed, and in most cases the times for the activities to start and
finish along with the longest path(s) through the network—the critical
path. .
II. FROM WORK PACKAGE TO NETWORK
An activity is an element in the project that consumes time—for example,
work or waiting.
Work packages from the WBS are used to build the activities found in
the project network.
An activity can include one or more work packages. The activities are
placed in a sequence that provides for orderly completion of the
project.
A network activity can include one or more work packages.
II. FROM WORK PACKAGE TO NETWORK
III. CONSTRUCTING A PROJECT NETWORK
– TERMINOLOGY
The most common approach to project scheduling is the use of network
techniques such as PERT and CPM.
The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) was developed by the U.S.
Navy in cooperation with Booz Allen Hamilton and the Lockheed Corporation in
1958.
The Critical Path Method was developed by DuPont, Inc., during the same time
period.
III. CONSTRUCTING A PROJECT NETWORK
– TERMINOLOGY
PERT CPM
Project Evaluation & Review Technique Critical Path Method
Applicable when the time required to finish A statistical algorithm which has a certain
a project is uncertain start and end time for a project
Probabilistic model Deterministic model
Focused to minimize the time required for Focused on a trade-odd between cost &
completion of the project time, with a major emphasis on cost
cutting
Event-oriented technique Activity-oriented technique
Usually used in R&D projects Usually used in construction project
III. CONSTRUCTING A PROJECT NETWORK
– TERMINOLOGY
Activity is an element of the project that requires time. It may or may not require
resources. Typically an activity consumes time—either while people work or while
people wait.
Merge Activity. This is an activity that has more than one activity immediately
preceding it (more than one dependency arrow flowing to it).
Parallel Activities are activities that can take place at the same time, if the manager
wishes. However, the manager may choose to have parallel activities not occur
simultaneously.
Path is a sequence of connected, dependent activities.
Critical Path is the longest duration through the network; if an activity on the path is
delayed, the project is delayed the same amount of time.
Burst Activity has more than one activity immediately following it(more than one
dependency arrow flowing from it).
III. CONSTRUCTING A PROJECT NETWORK
- RULES
1. Networks flow typically from left to right.
2. An activity cannot begin until all preceding connected activities have been
completed.
3. Arrows on networks indicate precedence and flow. Arrows can cross over each other.
4. Each activity should have a unique identification number.
5. An activity identification number must be larger than that of any activities that
precede it.
6. Looping is not allowed (in other words, recycling through a set of activities cannot
take place).
7. Conditional statements are not allowed (that is, this type of statement should not
appear: If successful, do something; if not, do nothing).
8. When there are multiple starts, a common start node can be used to indicate a clear
project beginning on the network. Similarly, a single project end node can be used to
indicate a clear ending.
IV. ACTIVITY-ON-NODE (AON) FUNDAMENTAL
The two approaches used to develop project networks are known as
activity-on-node (AON) and activity-on-arrow (AOA).
In AON method (= precedence diagram) an activity is represented by
a node (box/circle).
The dependencies among activities are depicted by arrows between
the nodes on the AON network.The arrows indicate how the
activities are related and the sequence in which things must be
accomplished.
IV. ACTIVITY-ON-NODE (AON) FUNDAMENTAL
The 3 three basic relationships that must be established for activities included in a
project network.
1. Which activities must be completed immediately before this activity? These
activities are called predecessor activities.
2. Which activities must immediately follow this activity? These activities are called
successor activities.
3. Which activities can occur while this activity is taking place? This is known as a
concurrent or parallel relationship.
IV. ACTIVITY-ON-NODE (AON) FUNDAMENTAL
V. NETWORK COMPUTATION PROCESS
Forward • How soon can the activity start? (early start—ES)
• How soon can the activity finish? (early finish—EF)
Pass • How soon can the project be finished? (expected time—
TE)
• How late can the activity start? (late start—LS)
Backward • How late can the activity finish? (late finish—LF)
• Which activities represent the critical path (CP)? This is the
Passes longest path in the network.
• How long can the activity be delayed? (slack or float—SL)
V. NETWORK COMPUTATION PROCESS
– FORWARD PASS
Dimulai dari kegiatan pertama proyek
Aturan Earliest Start Time :
► Jika sebuah aktivitas hanya memiliki satu immediate
predecessor, maka ES = the EF aktivitas predecessor.
► Jika sebuah aktivitas memiliki beberapa immediate
predecessors, maka ES-nya adalah nilai maksimum dari
keseluruhan nilai EF aktivitas predecessors.
ES = Max {EF of all immediate predecessors}
Predecessor activity = aktivitas yang mendahului aktivitas lainnya
V. NETWORK COMPUTATION PROCESS
– FORWARD PASS
Dimulai dari kegiatan pertama proyek
Aturan Earliest Finish Time :
► Waktu selesai paling awal (= earliest finish time, EF) sebuah
aktivitas adalah jumlah waktu mulai paling awal (= earliest start
time, ES) dan waktu aktivitasnya.
EF = ES + Activity time
Predecessor activity = aktivitas yang mendahului aktivitas lainnya
V. NETWORK COMPUTATION PROCESS
– BACKWARD PASS
Dimulai dari kegiatan paling akhir sebuah proyek
Aturan Latest Finish Time :
► Jika sebuah aktivitas merupakan pendahulu dari satu aktivitas,
maka LF = LS aktivitas yang mengikutinya.
► Jika sebuah aktivitas merupakan pendahulu beberapa aktivitas,
maka LF-nya adalah nilai minimum dari seluruh nilai LF aktivitas
yang mengikutinya.
LF = Min {LS of all immediate following activities}
Predecessor activity = aktivitas yang mendahului aktivitas lainnya
V. NETWORK COMPUTATION PROCESS
– BACKWARD PASS
Dimulai dari kegiatan paling akhir sebuah proyek
Aturan Latest Start Time :
► Waktu mulai paling akhir (= latest start time, LS) sebuah
aktivitas adalah selisih dari waktu selesai paling akhir
(latest finish time, LF) dan waktu aktivitasnya.
LS = LF – Activity time
Predecessor activity = aktivitas yang mendahului aktivitas lainnya
V. NETWORK COMPUTATION PROCESS
Activity Description Preceeding Activity Time
Activity
A Application approval None 5
B Construction plans A 15
C Traffic Study A 10
D Service availability check A 5
E Staff report B, C 15
F Commission approval B, C, D 10
Network
Information of Koll G Wait for construction F 170
Business Center H Occupancy E, G 35
V. NETWORK COMPUTATION PROCESS
- EXAMPLE
1. What activities are the critical path of the project!
2. Determine the expected activity time (t) and the variance!
QUESTIONS:
3. Calculate the probability of finishing the project as expected in week 240!
4. If the management is 85% sure that the project will end on time, calculate the
project’s due date!
V. NETWORK COMPUTATION
PROCESS
V. NETWORK COMPUTATION PROCESS
- COMPUTING SLACK TIME
Activity Earliest Earliest Latest Latest Slack CP (Y/N)
Start (ES) Finish (EF) Start (LS) Finish (LF)
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
V. NETWORK COMPUTATION PROCESS
- COMPUTING VARIANCE
In PERT, a probability distribution is based on three time estimates for
each activity.
Optimistic time ( a ) = time an activity will take if everything goes as
planned. In estimating this value, there should be only a small
probability (say, 1/100) that the activity time will be < a .
Pessimistic time ( b ) = time an activity will take assuming very
unfavorable conditions. In estimating this value, there should also be
only a small probability (also 1/100) that the activity time will be > b .
Most likely time ( m ) = most realistic estimate of the time required to
complete an activity.
V. NETWORK COMPUTATION PROCESS
- COMPUTING VARIANCE
Expected activity time Dispersion/variance (σ2) of
for each activity: activity completion time:
V. NETWORK COMPUTATION PROCESS
- COMPUTING VARIANCE
Beta Probability Distribution with 3 Times Estimates
Optimi Most Pessimi Expect
Varianc
V. NETWORK COMPUTATION PROCESS
Activity stic Likely stic ed
e
Time
(a ) (m ) (b )
A 4 5 7 6.20 0.25
B 13 15 - COMPUTING
17 VARIANCE
6.00 0.44
C 8 10 12 6.00 0.44
D 3 5 8 6.20 0.69
E 12 15 16 5.87 0.44
F 10 10 Activity
11 6.10 0.03 Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Expected Variance
G 165 170 180 6.03
5.97
6.25
0.25
(a) (m) (b) Time
H 33 35 36
A 4 5 7
B 13 15 17
C 8 10 12
D 3 5 8
E 12 15 16
F 10 10 11
G 165 170 180
H 33 35 36
V. NETWORK COMPUTATION PROCESS
- COMPUTING VARIANCE OF CRITICAL PATH ACTIVITIES
Project variance:
𝟐
𝒑
Project std deviation:
𝒑
V. NETWORK COMPUTATION PROCESS
- COMPUTING PROBABILITY OF COMPLETING PROJECT ON TIME
Probability of completing a project on time :
Probability for any completion date
𝒑
LATIHAN SOAL
Sebuah kontraktor memenangkan
proyek untuk membangun rumah sakit.
Proyek tersebut terdiri dari 11 kegiatan
utama, sebagai berikut:
Aktivitas Aktivitas Waktu Aktivitas
Pendahulu (Minggu)
Proyek Rumah Sakit
Start 0
Organisasi dan Persiapan Lokasi
A. Memilih Staf Administrasi Start 12
B. Memilih Lokasi dan Survey Start 9
C. Memilih Peralatan Medis A 10
D. Mempersiapkan Rencana Konstruksi Final B 10
E. Mengirimkan Perlengkapan ke Lokasi Proyek B 24
F. Wawancara Pelamar Karyawan Rumah Sakit A 10
Fasilitas Fisik dan Infrastruktur
G. Membeli dan Mengirimkan Peralatan ke Lokasi C 35
Proyek
H. Membangun Rumah Sakit D 40
I. Mengembangkan Sistem Informasi A 15
J. Memasang Peralatan Medis E, G, H 4
K. Pelatihan Karyawan Rumah Sakit F, I, J 6
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 32
Selesai K 0
Activity Optimistic (a) Most Likely Pessimistic (b)
TIGA ESTIMASI WAKTU (m)
PROYEK RUMAH SAKIT A A 11 12 13
B 7 8 15
C 5 10 15
D 8 9 16
E 14 25 30
F 6 9 18
G 25 36 41
H 35 40 45
I 10 13 28
J 1 2 15
K 5 6 7
PERTANYAAN:
Pertanyaan:
1. Lakukanlah analisis critical path! Aktivitas-aktivitas apakah yang termasuk dalam critical path
tersebut?
2. Tentukanlah slack time!
3. Tentukan expected activity time (t) dan varians-nya!
4. Tentukan probabiliti bahwa proyek dapat selesai tepat waktu jika manajemen menginginkan proyek
tersebut selesai di minggu ke-75!
5. Jika manajemen yakin bahwa 80% proyek tersebut dapat selesai tepat waktu, tentukanlah due date
atau tenggat waktu pengerjaan proyek!
Optimi Most Pessimi Expect
Varianc
Activity stic Likely stic ed
e
Time
(a ) (m ) (b )
Ocbc 611810118012 A 4 5 7 6.20 0.25
B 13 15 17 6.00 0.44
C 8 10 12 6.00 0.44
D 3 5 8 6.20 0.69
E 12 15 16 5.87 0.44
F 10 10 11 6.10 0.03
G 165 170 180 6.03 6.25
H 33 35 36 5.97 0.25
